Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 59

DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC

July 2019
INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION

Scope

▪ [Insert ‘Scope’ Tableau Visual here] Disclaimer


Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
while every attempt has been made
to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
held responsible for omissions or
errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
briefings may not totally reflect the
companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.

The internet has transformed


the way consumers shop and
has thus posed a threat to the
direct selling industry. Asia
Pacific’s rising affluence and
huge millennial population
presents companies with
opportunities for growth,
especially in emerging Asia.
Direct selling players that are
quick to adapt in terms of
product innovation and
embracing omnichannel
strategies will continue to stay
relevant.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 3


INTRODUCTION

Key findings

Direct selling businesses Direct selling has been hit by slow growth in recent years due to growing
face rising competition from competition from e-commerce players. The convenience and anonymity of
e-commerce players and making online purchases has weighed down on direct selling growth. Plagued
increased scrutiny from with several financing frauds and pyramid selling scams, the industry has
regulators faced increased scrutiny from regulators and growing distrust among
consumers.
Consumer health and Out of all product categories, consumer health and beauty and personal care
beauty and personal care are the top products that are driving growth in the region. Besides the greater
products enjoy strongest propensity to spend by Asia Pacific’s burgeoning middle-class, consumers are
growth also paying greater attention to their health and beauty. Weight management,
vitamins and natural ingredient-infused skin care products are some of the
products that are gaining traction among consumers.
Players focused on Direct sellers are making inroads into emerging markets, especially the lower-
expanding their footprint in tier cities of China, India and Indonesia. Given the low presence of physical
emerging markets shops and a less educated population, the nature of the direct selling business
resonates well with this consumer segment. Consumers appreciate the ability
to receive personalised advice for health and beauty products directly from
sales personnel.
Embrace omnichannel Given the threat of e-commerce, direct sellers will need to reinvent the
strategies to stay shopping experience by embracing multichannel. Several players in China
competitive have recently established a physical presence and are committed to providing
customers with a unique and immersive retail experience.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 4


INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Asia Pacific accounts for the largest share of value sales globally

▪ Home to not only the largest direct


selling market in terms of value
sales in the world, Asia Pacific is
also the second fastest growing
region with a 3% CAGR over 2013-
2018.
▪ Asia Pacific’s growing middle class
and its increased propensity to
spend have been the key drivers of
growth in the direct selling industry.
Several global and local players
have benefited from consumers’
growing interest in health and
beauty products.
▪ Asia Pacific is currently the second
smallest market in terms of direct
selling per capita expenditure
globally. Despite the economic
uncertainties surrounding US-
China trade tensions, Asia Pacific’s
direct selling sales have the
potential to catch up with their
Western counterparts.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 6


REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Consumer distrust and rise of e-commerce weigh on direct selling growth

▪ Direct selling has been hit by slow


growth in recent years and the
trend is expected to persist over the
forecast period. Several financing
frauds and pyramid selling scams in
China have cast direct selling in a
negative light. The Chinese
authorities have even labelled these
businesses as “cults”. Growing
scrutiny from Chinese and South
Korean regulators is expected to
put downward pressure on direct
selling growth over the forecast
period.
▪ Furthermore, with the rise of e-
commerce, many consumers prefer
to make purchases from the
internet over direct sellers.
Consumers value the convenience
of e-commerce and the ability to
make anonymous purchases,
compared to the intimacy of direct
selling.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 7


REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Consumer health products account for a significant share of value sales

▪ Besides the “Other” category,


consumer health accounts for the
largest share of direct selling value
sales, especially in China. The
introduction of the “Healthy China
2030” policy has increased consumers’
awareness on health and wellness.
Coupled with aggressive marketing
from direct sellers and expansion into
second- and third-tier markets,
consumer health products have
enjoyed strong growth. The nature of
direct selling promotes personalised
consultation services and repeated
purchases, which resonates well with
consumer health products.
▪ Japan stands out as the only market
where food and drink sales has a
distinct lead over other product
categories. With Yakult Honsha being
one of the market leaders, its probiotic
milk drink accounts for a sizeable
portion of the drinks market.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 8


REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Consumer health and beauty and personal care continue to lead

▪ Consumer health and beauty and


personal care are the key product
categories that continue to lead in
the direct selling space. Sales
continue to climb across emerging
markets such as Indonesia and
the Philippines. Rising affluence
of the middle class and the large
millennial population have been
the key drivers of growth for
consumer health and beauty and
personal care products.
▪ The high concentration of
physical stores in Hong Kong and
the rise of e-commerce have
negatively impacted direct selling
businesses, especially those in
consumer health. However,
consumers still place value on the
personalised services and
expertise of direct sellers when
purchasing beauty and personal
care products.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 9


REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Consumer health products experience strong growth in China

▪ The “Other” category aside,


consumer health has experienced
the strongest absolute growth in
value sales in China. China’s
leading consumer health brand,
Infinitus, has been engaging in
product research and development
and aggressive marketing to
heighten brand awareness even
among lower-tier cities. With quality
products being its core focus,
Infinitus runs a couple of herb
plantation bases, such as in
Longquan and Minxian, to ensure
the highest quality of its ingredients.
▪ Developed markets such as South
Korea, Hong Kong and Japan are
instead experiencing negative
growth in consumer health
products. This is due to rising
competition from e-commerce
players and increased scrutiny from
regulators.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 10


REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Emerging markets observe strongest growth in direct selling (1)

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 11


REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Emerging markets observe strongest growth in direct selling (2)

▪ Although the explosive sales growth of consumer health products has been largely driven by rising
affluence levels in China, some credit also has to be given to direct sellers that have adapted their
strategies to keep up with changing consumer habits. With the increasing importance of the omnichannel
experience, direct selling players have opened showrooms to reinvent the shopping experience and boost
customer loyalty. Besides presenting products, these showrooms are also equipped with health test areas
and fitness rooms for a fully immersive experience. Amway recently opened its fifth flagship experiential
showroom in China, comprising a café, training room and product pick-up area.
▪ Although direct selling still remains a small, nascent market in India, recent growth has been encouraging.
India’s two biggest direct selling product categories, beauty and personal care and consumer health, have
experienced healthy CAGRs over the past five years. Leading player, Amway, continues to place focus on
its health and wellness products, especially Nutrilite. Amway has also ventured into the herbal skin care
market in late 2018 to benefit from growing consumer interest in skin care products.
▪ Beauty and personal care in Indonesia has experienced a strong CAGR in direct selling sales over the past
five years. Indonesia’s growing middle class and millennial segment has propelled the growth of several
beauty and personal care players such as Oriflame and Nu Skin.
▪ While direct selling players in emerging markets have witnessed positive growth, Japan’s direct selling
industry has been on a decline. Direct selling businesses have had to deal with poor reputations. Direct
sellers have previously faced charges by the authorities, with some having to file for bankruptcy and leaving
employees in debt. Furthermore, the proliferation of e-commerce and convenience stores in the country
have threatened the growth of direct selling businesses. The convenience of making internet purchases or
popping by a convenience store to pick up beauty products beats the risk of purchasing from illicit direct
sellers.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 12


INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS

Market undergoes further fragmentation with small players emerging

▪ Although the top five ranked


companies continue to dominate
the market in terms of value sales,
their combined market share has
been declining over the past five
years. The market has become
increasingly fragmented due to the
emergence of several small and
independent players.
▪ Small players have been quick to
target the lower-tier cities in
emerging markets such as China,
India and Indonesia. Given the low
concentration of physical shops and
limited access to product
knowledge, direct selling is an
effective channel of distribution in
lower-tier cities. With consumers’
heightened focus on health and
beauty, consumer health and
beauty and personal care products
have seen the strongest interest out
of all product categories.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 14


LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS

Amway leads the pack in Asia Pacific but faces strong competition in China

▪ While Amway retains its market


leadership in Asia Pacific, the
company has been losing market
share due to increased competition,
especially in its key market, China.
Amway cited softening sales in
China where it faced growing
competition from emerging
domestic players such as Infinitus.
▪ Infinitus’s recent success is a result
of its strong commitment to product
development. The Chinese player
has been working with the
University of Cambridge since 2015
to research and develop traditional
Chinese medicines. The company
has also invested approximately
USD659 million to build a new
research and development centre
and a Chinese herbal medicine
research and safety assessment
centre in Guangzhou. Construction
is slated to be completed by 2020.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 15


LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS

Amway and Herbalife focus on expanding in emerging markets

▪ Amway’s core markets in Asia include


China, South Korea, Japan and
Thailand. Unlike other direct sellers
such as Nu Skin and Herbalife, Amway
has managed to penetrate the Thai
market. Amway’s weight management
brand, BodyKey by Nutrilite, has been
the key driver of growth in Thailand.
The company has benefited not only
from its strong online presence, but
also from the availability of product
pick-up facilities at 7-Eleven stores.
▪ Herbalife has enjoyed growing
presence in India, largely attributed to
consumers’ rising interest in weight
management, vitamins and dietary
supplements. The company has been
focusing on expanding its footprint into
second- and third-tier cities and
product innovation. Herbalife opened a
research and development centre in
Bangalore in collaboration with
Syngene in 2017.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 16


LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS

Crackdown on pyramid schemes sends Nu Skin down the ranks

▪ With the Chinese government’s


crackdown on Nu Skin’s pyramid
schemes in 2014, the company
was forced to suspend its meetings
and recruitment. This led to a
decline in sales in China, sending
the company’s ranking down from
second in 2013 to fourth in 2018 in
terms of total sales in Asia Pacific.
▪ Infinitus’s commitment towards
product innovation and
digitalisation of the in-store
experience has led to the meteoric
rise of the Chinese company. In
2016, the company introduced a
mobile app that aids sales staff in
improving their product knowledge
and sales skills through online
seminars. The app is also
integrated with its online shopping
platform, Fen Xiang Hui, which
makes it convenient for gift
redemptions.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 17


INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
FORECAST PROJECTIONS

Direct selling forecasted to observe slow, positive growth (1)

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 19


FORECAST PROJECTIONS

Direct selling forecasted to observe slow, positive growth (2)

▪ With the exception of Japan, all markets across Asia Pacific are forecast to experience positive growth in
direct selling over the next five years. The three biggest growth markets in terms of absolute value are
South Korea, China and Indonesia.
▪ While cosmetics and personal care products used to be the main products sold through direct selling in
South Korea, several players have been diversifying their product offerings. For example, Atomy has
introduced ready meals and air purifiers to meet consumers’ changing needs. Hence, with players actively
investing in expanding their product range, direct selling value sales is expected to grow over the forecast
period.
▪ Direct selling in China and Indonesia is also slated to witness positive growth over the forecast period,
largely driven by sales from the lower-tier cities. Given the low presence of physical shops and a less
educated population, the nature of the direct selling business resonates well with this consumer segment.
Consumers enjoy the ability to receive personalised consultation for consumer health and beauty products
directly from sales personnel, which in turn promotes repurchase. Recognising this trend, many businesses
have been focusing on expanding their footprint into the lower-tier cities. Yakult Honsha has been highly
successful in penetrating Indonesia through their iconic Yakult Ladies. These Yakult Ladies are able to
engage and educate consumers on the importance of having good intestinal health. Yakult Honsha has
seen its sales via Yakult Ladies surpass sales via supermarkets, convenience stores and other outside
channels, in Indonesia.
▪ Although direct selling is expected to grow, year-of-year growth is expected to slow down amidst the threat
of e-commerce. Direct sellers will need to adopt omnichannel strategies in order to stay relevant. Building a
strong online presence will aid in growing brand awareness and provides an avenue for product sales.
Several direct selling players have also recently expanded into brick-and-mortar stores to provide
customers with a unique and immersive retail experience.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 20


INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

China: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 22


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

China: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 23


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Japan: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 24


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Japan: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 25


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

South Korea: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 26


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

South Korea: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 27


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Thailand: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 28


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Thailand: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 29


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Taiwan: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 30


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Taiwan: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 31


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Malaysia: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 32


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Malaysia: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 33


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

India: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 34


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

India: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 35


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Philippines: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 36


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Philippines: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 37


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Indonesia: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 38


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Indonesia: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 39


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Hong Kong: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 40


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Hong Kong: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 41


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Vietnam: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 42


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Vietnam: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 43


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Singapore: market context

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 44


COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS

Singapore: competitive and retail landscape

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 45


INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Competitor Analytics tool

▪ Competitor Analytics is a new tool from Euromonitor International that focuses on fmcg companies and
competitors. It visualises the retail sales footprint and performance of more than 25,000 companies by
geography and product category.
▪ Competitor Analytics also maps the competitive landscape for each of these companies, allowing users to
see with whom each company competes and in which specific markets. To do this, the tool calculates a
numeric “distance” between competitors, allowing the user to track how the competitive landscape is
evolving and which companies are becoming strategically more or less similar.
▪ For a detailed explanation of the graphics in each of Competitor Analytics’ four tabs – Overview,
Competitors, Treemap and Overlap Matrices – please refer to the following slides.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 47


APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Overview

▪ The Overview tab (shown in the graphic below) provides a global snapshot of a company’s sales footprint
and performance, highlighting where it is winning and losing by country and product category.
▪ It shows company (GBO) retail value sales and absolute growth by countries and categories in current
terms and US dollars at a fixed exchange rate for the years spanning 2008 to 2014.
▪ The grey bars represent value sales in the selected “Start Year”, while the green bars show the subsequent
absolute value sales increase between the user-selected start year and 2014. Red bars denote a retail
value decline over the same time period.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 48


APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Competitors

▪ The Competitors tab (see graphic to the


right) plots the “competitive distance”
between the selected “focal” company (in
this case Unilever) and its competitors.
▪ The vertical axis measures the size of
“market overlap” between two companies,
and is the metric for quantitatively
measuring competitive distance. The higher
a company is on the vertical axis, the bigger
a competitor it is for the focal company.
▪ Meanwhile, the horizontal axis captures
each company’s total retail value sales over
the selected time period, irrespective of
market overlap.
▪ Flat lines (eg Nestlé in the chart to the right)
indicate that a competitor’s total sales are
growing, but mainly in markets where the
focal company is not present.
▪ Lines moving steeply upwards (eg Procter
& Gamble) show that competitive similarity
is increasing strongly over time relative to
overall retail sales growth.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 49


APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Market Overlap

▪ Market Overlap is a measure of


competitive distance between two
companies in retail value terms.
▪ It is calculated as the sum of the
smaller of the two company’s
retail value sales in each of their
common country/category (aka
market) combinations. The sum of
these observations indicates a
total Market Overlap.
▪ In 2014, Procter & Gamble and
Unilever were present in 711
common markets (see right)
across the global fmcg universe.
▪ In US deodorants, Procter &
Gamble was the smaller of the
two, and thus defined the Overlap.
▪ In US hair care, Unilever was
smaller and thus defined Overlap.
▪ Replicating this exercise across
all 711 markets in which both
companies were present yields a
total 2014 Overlap of US$23,420.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 50


APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Treemap

▪ Treemap (as shown in the graphics below ) shows either overlap with a competitor (the left graphic) or
individual company sales (the graphic on the right) by product category and/or country.
▪ The size of each box indicates the proportional size in US dollars of a country, category or market relative
to the total overlap or sales for the geographies and industries selected.
▪ The colour gradient reflects sales or overlap growth/decline over the selected time period. The darker the
green, the higher the growth, and the darker the shade of pink/red, the stronger the rate of decline.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 51


APPENDIX: COMPETITOR ANALYTICS

Overlap Matrices

▪ Overlap Matrices (as shown in the graphic below) compare two selected competitors (Unilever Group vs
Procter & Gamble Co) in terms of their respective presence across countries and product categories.
▪ The darker the colour shading, the higher the company’s retail value share in that market. The graphic
below shows that Procter & Gamble has a strong share in hair care in China, whereas Unilever is weaker.
▪ Overlap Matrices also highlight respective market gaps and potential white space opportunities. Dark grey
boxes indicate that one of the two companies shown is present in that market, but the other company is not.
A light grey box means that neither of the two selected companies is present.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 52


APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

About Euromonitor International’s Industry Forecast Model

▪ The Industry Forecast Model is a new tool from Euromonitor International that integrates intuitive,
judgment-based forecasting with the quantitative techniques of an econometric Industry Demand Model.
▪ The Industry Demand Model assesses the relationship between several historic quantifiable independent
variables (demand drivers) and historic retail volume sales for different markets that Euromonitor tracks.
▪ In identifying these relationships, the model estimates elasticities for each statistically significant demand
driver, including income growth, changing retail prices, demographic trends and retail channel trends.
▪ Multiplying these elasticities by corresponding year-on-year growth forecasts for each demand driver allows
the Forecast Model to build annualised retail volume and value forecasts for a market in a given year.
▪ While estimated demand driver elasticities are constant, forecast demand driver growth can change over
time. For example, forecast GDP growth for a given year is regularly upgraded or downgraded in
Euromonitor International’s Macro Model to reflect changing economic and sociopolitical conditions.
▪ In turn, changing only forecast growth for GDP in this example allows the Packaged Food Forecast Model
to create multiple retail forecasts that capture the impact of these changing macroeconomic conditions.

Impact of Russia GDP Shock on Chocolate Confectionery Retail Volume Forecast in Russia
2015 real GDP % Chocolate income Income effect on 2015 chocolate %
growth forecast elasticity chocolate growth volume growth
Baseline Forecast
+1.43 0.37 +0.53pp +1.41
(June 2014)
Updated Forecast
-3.82 0.37 -1.41pp -0.55
(December 2014)

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 53


APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Soft drivers and the Industry Forecast Model

▪ The power of Euromonitor International’s forecasting methodology is that it blends statistical modelling with
local market observations reflecting local industry consensus. As such, retail market forecasts also rely on
the insights and expertise of Euromonitor’s global analyst network. Euromonitor analysts work closely with
the Industry Demand Model to ensure that it remains consistent with their empirical observations,
guaranteeing that quantitative and intuitive expectations fully complement each other.
▪ Euromonitor analysts also capture all the demand drivers beyond the scope of the Industry Demand Model.
These “soft drivers” remain critical to future retail sales, but are either fundamentally unquantifiable or have
no globally comparable data with which to measure them.
▪ Soft drivers are captured and measured exclusively by empirical research from Euromonitor analysts, and
their overall positive or negative impact is estimated on top of the results of the Industry Demand Model.

Demand Driver Soft Demand


Forecast Demand
Elasticities: Drivers:
Driver Growth:
From Industry From Country and
From Passport
Demand Model Industry Research

Industry Forecast Model

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 54


APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Growth decomposition explained

▪ To help understand and illustrate the impact of each demand driver to a market’s retail growth performance
and prospects, Euromonitor International employs a graphical tool called “growth decomposition”.
▪ The fundamental idea behind growth decomposition is that a product category’s retail sales performance
and future prospects can be explained through changes in underlying demand factors.
▪ As explained above, the impact of demand driver change to retail market sales can be calculated by
multiplying a demand driver’s observed elasticity by that demand driver rate of change over a period of
time. Multiplying demand driver elasticity by forecast demand driver growth yields the percentage points of
overall retail growth that that specific demand driver is contributing to the market forecast under review.
▪ In addition, Euromonitor analysts estimate the impact of “soft drivers” to overall retail growth via their
empirical research. The relative impact and importance of “soft drivers” can be shown alongside that of the
measurable demand drivers identified by the Industry Demand Model.
▪ In the growth decomposition visual below, the percentage points of growth that each demand driver is
contributing to overall market growth are illustrated in the coloured segments of the stacked bar charts.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 55


APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Significance and applications for growth decomposition

▪ By attributing a fraction of overall retail growth to each contributing demand driver, overall category growth
can be “decomposed”. In doing so, an extensive picture of underlying market fundamentals and processes
on a category-by-category and country-by-country basis can be provided.
▪ Ultimately, growth decomposition allows Industry Forecast Model users to:
▪ Identify different demand drivers that affect historic sales, and will likely impact future market prospects;
▪ Evaluate the relative importance of different demand factors over time and then identify which factors
generate the highest deviations in historic - and ultimately future - consumption;
▪ Illuminate the underlying market dynamics for each product category;
▪ Measure and predict the effects of demand driver shocks, either expected or hypothetical;
▪ Facilitate scenario analysis by generating understanding of which demand factors can be influenced by a
manufacturer or retailer and which are beyond their control.

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 56


APPENDIX: INDUSTRY FORECAST MODEL

Key applications for Industry Forecast Models

• Quarterly Forecast Restatements


• Regularly updated retail market forecasts to reflect latest macro expectations (ie,
quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth revisions) for all markets.
1
• “What If?” Scenario Analysis
• See and compare how a hypothetical event (ie Eurozone recession, China Hard
Landing, Grexit) stands to impact different market forecasts.
2
• Growth Decomposition and Demand Driver Elasticities
• Understand, compare and respond to the forces driving expected market growth
across different product categories and countries.
3
• Assess Market Potential
• See the ceiling on retail volume or value sales and growth, regardless of a specific
forecast scenario. How much more can that market really grow?
4

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 57


FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Grace Chia
Senior Analyst, Services & Payments
grace.chia@euromonitor.com
Experience more...
This research from Euromonitor International is part of a global Learn More
strategic intelligence system that offers a complete picture of the To find out more about
commercial environment. Also available from Euromonitor Euromonitor International's
International: complete range of business
intelligence on industries,
countries and consumers please
Global Briefings visit www.euromonitor.com or
Timely, relevant insight published every month on the state of the contact your local Euromonitor
market, emerging trends and pressing industry issues. International office:
Interactive Statistical Database Bangalore +91 (80) 67740500
Complete market analysis at a level of detail beyond any other source. Cape Town +27 21 524 3000
Market sizes, market shares, distribution channels and forecasts. Chicago +1 312 922 1115
Dubai +971 4 372 4363
Strategy Briefings
Dusseldorf +49 211 890 0944
Executive debate on the global trends changing the consumer markets
Hong Kong +852 3796 3604
of the future.
London +44 0 20 7251 8024
Global Company Profiles Santiago +56 22 915 7200
The competitive positioning and strategic direction of leading São Paulo +55 11 2970 2150
companies including uniquely sector-specific sales and share data. Seoul +82 2 6123 0209
Country Market Insight Reports Shanghai +86 21 6032 1088
The key drivers influencing the industry in each country; Singapore +65 6429 0590
comprehensive coverage of supply-side and demand trends and how Sydney +61 0 2 9581 9200
they shape future outlook. Tokyo +81 3 3436 2100
Vilnius +370 5 243 1577

© Euromonitor International RETAILING: DIRECT SELLING IN ASIA PACIFIC PASSPORT 59

Вам также может понравиться