Академический Документы
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Культура Документы
July 2019
INTRODUCTION
REGIONAL OVERVIEW
LEADING COMPANIES AND BRANDS
FORECAST PROJECTIONS
COUNTRY SNAPSHOTS
APPENDIX
INTRODUCTION
Scope
Key findings
Direct selling businesses Direct selling has been hit by slow growth in recent years due to growing
face rising competition from competition from e-commerce players. The convenience and anonymity of
e-commerce players and making online purchases has weighed down on direct selling growth. Plagued
increased scrutiny from with several financing frauds and pyramid selling scams, the industry has
regulators faced increased scrutiny from regulators and growing distrust among
consumers.
Consumer health and Out of all product categories, consumer health and beauty and personal care
beauty and personal care are the top products that are driving growth in the region. Besides the greater
products enjoy strongest propensity to spend by Asia Pacific’s burgeoning middle-class, consumers are
growth also paying greater attention to their health and beauty. Weight management,
vitamins and natural ingredient-infused skin care products are some of the
products that are gaining traction among consumers.
Players focused on Direct sellers are making inroads into emerging markets, especially the lower-
expanding their footprint in tier cities of China, India and Indonesia. Given the low presence of physical
emerging markets shops and a less educated population, the nature of the direct selling business
resonates well with this consumer segment. Consumers appreciate the ability
to receive personalised advice for health and beauty products directly from
sales personnel.
Embrace omnichannel Given the threat of e-commerce, direct sellers will need to reinvent the
strategies to stay shopping experience by embracing multichannel. Several players in China
competitive have recently established a physical presence and are committed to providing
customers with a unique and immersive retail experience.
Asia Pacific accounts for the largest share of value sales globally
▪ Although the explosive sales growth of consumer health products has been largely driven by rising
affluence levels in China, some credit also has to be given to direct sellers that have adapted their
strategies to keep up with changing consumer habits. With the increasing importance of the omnichannel
experience, direct selling players have opened showrooms to reinvent the shopping experience and boost
customer loyalty. Besides presenting products, these showrooms are also equipped with health test areas
and fitness rooms for a fully immersive experience. Amway recently opened its fifth flagship experiential
showroom in China, comprising a café, training room and product pick-up area.
▪ Although direct selling still remains a small, nascent market in India, recent growth has been encouraging.
India’s two biggest direct selling product categories, beauty and personal care and consumer health, have
experienced healthy CAGRs over the past five years. Leading player, Amway, continues to place focus on
its health and wellness products, especially Nutrilite. Amway has also ventured into the herbal skin care
market in late 2018 to benefit from growing consumer interest in skin care products.
▪ Beauty and personal care in Indonesia has experienced a strong CAGR in direct selling sales over the past
five years. Indonesia’s growing middle class and millennial segment has propelled the growth of several
beauty and personal care players such as Oriflame and Nu Skin.
▪ While direct selling players in emerging markets have witnessed positive growth, Japan’s direct selling
industry has been on a decline. Direct selling businesses have had to deal with poor reputations. Direct
sellers have previously faced charges by the authorities, with some having to file for bankruptcy and leaving
employees in debt. Furthermore, the proliferation of e-commerce and convenience stores in the country
have threatened the growth of direct selling businesses. The convenience of making internet purchases or
popping by a convenience store to pick up beauty products beats the risk of purchasing from illicit direct
sellers.
Amway leads the pack in Asia Pacific but faces strong competition in China
▪ With the exception of Japan, all markets across Asia Pacific are forecast to experience positive growth in
direct selling over the next five years. The three biggest growth markets in terms of absolute value are
South Korea, China and Indonesia.
▪ While cosmetics and personal care products used to be the main products sold through direct selling in
South Korea, several players have been diversifying their product offerings. For example, Atomy has
introduced ready meals and air purifiers to meet consumers’ changing needs. Hence, with players actively
investing in expanding their product range, direct selling value sales is expected to grow over the forecast
period.
▪ Direct selling in China and Indonesia is also slated to witness positive growth over the forecast period,
largely driven by sales from the lower-tier cities. Given the low presence of physical shops and a less
educated population, the nature of the direct selling business resonates well with this consumer segment.
Consumers enjoy the ability to receive personalised consultation for consumer health and beauty products
directly from sales personnel, which in turn promotes repurchase. Recognising this trend, many businesses
have been focusing on expanding their footprint into the lower-tier cities. Yakult Honsha has been highly
successful in penetrating Indonesia through their iconic Yakult Ladies. These Yakult Ladies are able to
engage and educate consumers on the importance of having good intestinal health. Yakult Honsha has
seen its sales via Yakult Ladies surpass sales via supermarkets, convenience stores and other outside
channels, in Indonesia.
▪ Although direct selling is expected to grow, year-of-year growth is expected to slow down amidst the threat
of e-commerce. Direct sellers will need to adopt omnichannel strategies in order to stay relevant. Building a
strong online presence will aid in growing brand awareness and provides an avenue for product sales.
Several direct selling players have also recently expanded into brick-and-mortar stores to provide
customers with a unique and immersive retail experience.
▪ Competitor Analytics is a new tool from Euromonitor International that focuses on fmcg companies and
competitors. It visualises the retail sales footprint and performance of more than 25,000 companies by
geography and product category.
▪ Competitor Analytics also maps the competitive landscape for each of these companies, allowing users to
see with whom each company competes and in which specific markets. To do this, the tool calculates a
numeric “distance” between competitors, allowing the user to track how the competitive landscape is
evolving and which companies are becoming strategically more or less similar.
▪ For a detailed explanation of the graphics in each of Competitor Analytics’ four tabs – Overview,
Competitors, Treemap and Overlap Matrices – please refer to the following slides.
Overview
▪ The Overview tab (shown in the graphic below) provides a global snapshot of a company’s sales footprint
and performance, highlighting where it is winning and losing by country and product category.
▪ It shows company (GBO) retail value sales and absolute growth by countries and categories in current
terms and US dollars at a fixed exchange rate for the years spanning 2008 to 2014.
▪ The grey bars represent value sales in the selected “Start Year”, while the green bars show the subsequent
absolute value sales increase between the user-selected start year and 2014. Red bars denote a retail
value decline over the same time period.
Competitors
Market Overlap
Treemap
▪ Treemap (as shown in the graphics below ) shows either overlap with a competitor (the left graphic) or
individual company sales (the graphic on the right) by product category and/or country.
▪ The size of each box indicates the proportional size in US dollars of a country, category or market relative
to the total overlap or sales for the geographies and industries selected.
▪ The colour gradient reflects sales or overlap growth/decline over the selected time period. The darker the
green, the higher the growth, and the darker the shade of pink/red, the stronger the rate of decline.
Overlap Matrices
▪ Overlap Matrices (as shown in the graphic below) compare two selected competitors (Unilever Group vs
Procter & Gamble Co) in terms of their respective presence across countries and product categories.
▪ The darker the colour shading, the higher the company’s retail value share in that market. The graphic
below shows that Procter & Gamble has a strong share in hair care in China, whereas Unilever is weaker.
▪ Overlap Matrices also highlight respective market gaps and potential white space opportunities. Dark grey
boxes indicate that one of the two companies shown is present in that market, but the other company is not.
A light grey box means that neither of the two selected companies is present.
▪ The Industry Forecast Model is a new tool from Euromonitor International that integrates intuitive,
judgment-based forecasting with the quantitative techniques of an econometric Industry Demand Model.
▪ The Industry Demand Model assesses the relationship between several historic quantifiable independent
variables (demand drivers) and historic retail volume sales for different markets that Euromonitor tracks.
▪ In identifying these relationships, the model estimates elasticities for each statistically significant demand
driver, including income growth, changing retail prices, demographic trends and retail channel trends.
▪ Multiplying these elasticities by corresponding year-on-year growth forecasts for each demand driver allows
the Forecast Model to build annualised retail volume and value forecasts for a market in a given year.
▪ While estimated demand driver elasticities are constant, forecast demand driver growth can change over
time. For example, forecast GDP growth for a given year is regularly upgraded or downgraded in
Euromonitor International’s Macro Model to reflect changing economic and sociopolitical conditions.
▪ In turn, changing only forecast growth for GDP in this example allows the Packaged Food Forecast Model
to create multiple retail forecasts that capture the impact of these changing macroeconomic conditions.
Impact of Russia GDP Shock on Chocolate Confectionery Retail Volume Forecast in Russia
2015 real GDP % Chocolate income Income effect on 2015 chocolate %
growth forecast elasticity chocolate growth volume growth
Baseline Forecast
+1.43 0.37 +0.53pp +1.41
(June 2014)
Updated Forecast
-3.82 0.37 -1.41pp -0.55
(December 2014)
▪ The power of Euromonitor International’s forecasting methodology is that it blends statistical modelling with
local market observations reflecting local industry consensus. As such, retail market forecasts also rely on
the insights and expertise of Euromonitor’s global analyst network. Euromonitor analysts work closely with
the Industry Demand Model to ensure that it remains consistent with their empirical observations,
guaranteeing that quantitative and intuitive expectations fully complement each other.
▪ Euromonitor analysts also capture all the demand drivers beyond the scope of the Industry Demand Model.
These “soft drivers” remain critical to future retail sales, but are either fundamentally unquantifiable or have
no globally comparable data with which to measure them.
▪ Soft drivers are captured and measured exclusively by empirical research from Euromonitor analysts, and
their overall positive or negative impact is estimated on top of the results of the Industry Demand Model.
▪ To help understand and illustrate the impact of each demand driver to a market’s retail growth performance
and prospects, Euromonitor International employs a graphical tool called “growth decomposition”.
▪ The fundamental idea behind growth decomposition is that a product category’s retail sales performance
and future prospects can be explained through changes in underlying demand factors.
▪ As explained above, the impact of demand driver change to retail market sales can be calculated by
multiplying a demand driver’s observed elasticity by that demand driver rate of change over a period of
time. Multiplying demand driver elasticity by forecast demand driver growth yields the percentage points of
overall retail growth that that specific demand driver is contributing to the market forecast under review.
▪ In addition, Euromonitor analysts estimate the impact of “soft drivers” to overall retail growth via their
empirical research. The relative impact and importance of “soft drivers” can be shown alongside that of the
measurable demand drivers identified by the Industry Demand Model.
▪ In the growth decomposition visual below, the percentage points of growth that each demand driver is
contributing to overall market growth are illustrated in the coloured segments of the stacked bar charts.
▪ By attributing a fraction of overall retail growth to each contributing demand driver, overall category growth
can be “decomposed”. In doing so, an extensive picture of underlying market fundamentals and processes
on a category-by-category and country-by-country basis can be provided.
▪ Ultimately, growth decomposition allows Industry Forecast Model users to:
▪ Identify different demand drivers that affect historic sales, and will likely impact future market prospects;
▪ Evaluate the relative importance of different demand factors over time and then identify which factors
generate the highest deviations in historic - and ultimately future - consumption;
▪ Illuminate the underlying market dynamics for each product category;
▪ Measure and predict the effects of demand driver shocks, either expected or hypothetical;
▪ Facilitate scenario analysis by generating understanding of which demand factors can be influenced by a
manufacturer or retailer and which are beyond their control.