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Don’t worry about US stocks for six months; underweight US stocks in early 2020
For investors, whether or not a long-term real-term interest rate decline and rising gold
price are indicators of a negative market economic outlook remains to be seen (Figure 5).
However, we believe the logic behind the rise of the price of gold before and after July is
different, with the former mostly reflecting economic slowdown and policy uncertainty,
while the latter most likely indicates the possibility inflation will rise from the trough and
thus should not be seen as a canary in a coal mine for an economic recession. We note,
Carl Liu, CFA, CFP, CSIA US stocks remain relatively strong among developed markets which will bolster US dollar
886.2.2181.8032 strength in the near term, even if there is a rate cut (Figure 6). Furthermore, even if the
carl.liu@kgi.com
US economy sinks into a recession in one year, experience shows that seven to twelve
Erik Lee months before a recession US stocks still offer generous returns (Figure 7), meaning we
886.2.2181.8024 don’t need to worry about US stocks for another six months, and underweighting US
erik.lee@kgi.com
stocks can wait until early 2020.
See the last page for important disclosures.
July 24, 2019 Institutional portal: https://www.kgisia.com.tw/Portal/Report/Index/Zh/R Powered by the EFA Platform 1
Global US recession possible in 1 year
Figure 1: Global manufacturing PMI diffusion index indicates most countries still
face downward economic pressure
Global manufacturing PMI, points (LHS); PMI diffusion index, percent (RHS)
60 80
58 70
56 60
54 50
52 40
50 30
48 20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Global mfg. PMI PMI diffusion index
Source: Bloomberg; KGI Research
Figure 2: Judging by South Korean exports, emerging market earnings will keep falling
Emerging market EPS YoY, percent (LHS); South Korean exports growth, percent (RHS)
100 50
75 40
30
50 20
25 10
0 0
(10)
(25) (20)
(50) (30)
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
MSCI Emerging Markets EPS Korean exports
Source: Bloomberg; KGI Research
12
(0.5)
8
0.0
4
0.5 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
US 10-yr term premium Global market cap of negative yielding debts
Source: Bloomberg; KGI Research
40
30
20
10
0
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Figure 5: Whether long-term real-term interest rate decline & rising gold price
relative to other cyclical commodities are signs of global macro downtrend
remains to be seen
Global Gold Mining Index/Oil & Gas E&P Index, x (LHS); US 10-year TIPS yield, percent (inverted, RHS)
0.09 (0.3)
0.08 0.0
0.07
0.3
0.06
0.6
0.05
0.04 0.9
0.03 1.2
2016 2017 2018 2019
Global Gold Mining Index/S&P Oil and Gas E&P Index 10 Year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yield
Figure 7ĈExperience shows that 7-12 months before a recession US stocks still
offer generous returns
Prior to recession
S&P 500 annualized real total returns prior to recessions 13-24 months 7-12 months 1-6 months
1953/7-1954/5 21.9 17.8 (13.8)
1957/8-1958/4 15.8 (17.0) 13.9
1960/4-1961/2 31.3 6.6 (2.2)
1969/12-1970/11 13.4 (11.0) (20.7)
1973/11-1975/3 16.9 (11.3) (2.7)
1980/1-1980/7 0.5 6.8 4.0
1981/7-1982/11 32.3 (11.2)
1990/7-1991/3 14.3 22.2 1.6
2001/3-2001/11 8.9 20.0 (40.6)
2007/12-2009/6 11.6 13.6 (6.3)
Average 15.0 8.0 (7.8)
SourceĈBCA; KGI Research
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Singapore 068807
Outperform (OP) We take a positive view on the stock. The stock is expected to outperform the expected total
return* of the KGI coverage universe in the related market over a 12-month investment horizon.
Neutral (N) We take a neutral view on the stock. The stock is expected to perform in line with the expected
total return* of the KGI coverage universe in the related market over a 12-month investment
horizon.
Underperform (U) We take a negative view on the stock. The stock is expected to underperform the expected total
return* of the KGI coverage universe in the related market over a 12-month investment horizon.
Restricted (R) KGI policy and/or applicable law regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an
investment recommendation, during the course of KGI's engagement in an investment banking
transaction and in certain other circumstances.
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however, we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy and therefore shall not be held liable for any loss incurred. This report is
for reference only and is not itself an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.
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