Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump is not waiting for the economy to go south

amid growing fears of a recession to wage what could be the defining fight of the
2020 election.

Trump is becoming increasingly nervous that the end of an 11-year expansion could
scupper his hopes of a second term and is going on the attack as ill omens and
recent stock market slumps haunt the global economy.
"Most economists actually say we are not going to have a recession," Trump told
reporters in New Jersey on Sunday. "Most of them are saying we will not have a
recession but the rest of the world is not doing well like we are doing."
Trump downplays talk of a recession after his economic advisers say growing fears
are unfounded
Trump downplays talk of a recession after his economic advisers say growing fears
are unfounded
A recession does not appear to be an immediate danger in the US but signs of a
global slowdown are sprouting up everywhere, hinting that Trump could face a more
difficult political environment in 2020 than expected. A successful reelection race
in the face of a sluggish economy would represent the biggest sales job of the
former real estate mogul's life and he would again rewrite the laws of political
gravity.
As he begins a bid to define the economy and hedge against a recession, Trump is
testing a searing, materialistic message to voters who might spurn him if tougher
times arrive.
And the President, who dispatched his top economic advisers to Sunday talk shows,
is also dishing out a mixture of accurate and misleading commentary and blaming the
Federal Reserve and the media in case there is trouble ahead.
"Our economy is the best in the world, by far," Trump wrote on Twitter as thoughts
of the economy played on his mind during a summer Sunday afternoon at his
Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club.
"Lowest unemployment ever within almost all categories. Poised for big growth after
trade deals are completed. Import prices down, China eating Tariffs. Helping
targeted Farmers from big Tariff money coming in. Great future for USA!" Trump
tweeted. The President knows that a recession in the run-up to an election can
spell disaster for incumbents. For example, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush could
partly blame reelection losses on poor economic performance at the wrong moment.
The facts behind Trump's push for the Fed to cut rates
The facts behind Trump's push for the Fed to cut rates
The economy may be more important for Trump than it is for other presidents given
that its current health is one of the few policy areas where polls show he has
majority support.
It's also therefore ironic that some of Trump's own policies — for instance his
tariff war with China — are raising investor fears of a recession that could doom
him politically.
Uncertainty about the economy is fomented partly from conflicting signs. Jobs
growth remains strong in the US and consumer spending is robust, according to the
latest data.
But the slowest growth in China in three decades, imminent recession fears in big
European economies and bearish signals sent last week by the bond markets could be
early warning signs of a 2020 economic headache for Trump.
Buttigieg: Trump administration's China tariffs 'a fool's errand'
Buttigieg: Trump administration's China tariffs 'a fool's errand'
"We don't know yet, are we headed for a recession? That's not my base case
scenario," Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNN's Brianna
Keilar on Friday. "But the risks have increased quite a bit."
How a recession could make the 2020 campaign even more toxic
If a recession does materialize to threaten Trump's reelection hopes, he can be
expected to dial up the toxicity of a campaign in which he has already used the
most strident racial rhetoric and demagoguery seen in top level politics in
generations.
A recession would also transform the Democratic White House race. So far,
candidates have mainly argued that the wealth created in the Trump economy has not
been fairly shared and have been vulnerable to the facts of the lowest unemployment
rate in half a century and broad public satisfaction with the economy.
But they are also now seizing on signs that Trump's worsening trade war with China
is hammering global sentiment.
Five of the world's biggest economies are at risk. Here's where the US
stands
Five of the world's biggest economies are at risk. Here's where the US stands
"It's ... a fool's errand to think you'll be able to get China to change the
fundamentals of their economic model by poking them in the eye with tariffs,"
Democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg said Sunday in an exclusive interview with Jake
Tapper on CNN's "State of the Union."
"There's some basic facts you can't escape, one of them is that American farmers
are getting killed," said Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
If the economy does stumble, Democrats would be certain to quickly pivot to a full-
on attack on Republican economic management — including high deficits and the GOP
tax reform bill -- whatever Trump's record of the past few years.
Fresh polling is revealing Trump's political risk factors and is beginning to
suggest stirrings of public disquiet with how he is handling economic issues -- one
of the few policy areas where he has enjoyed majority voter confidence.
Farmers are staring down Trump's trade war. WH trade adviser defends
President's strategy
Farmers are staring down Trump's trade war. WH trade adviser defends President's
strategy
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed Americans still back
Trump's economic management by 49% to 46%. But it contained a warning sign for the
White House since his rating on the question slipped from a 51% to 41% split in
May.
Trump's general approval rating in the poll was at 43%, suggesting that there is a
significant minority of Americans who still like the Trump economy -- even if they
don't like him.
If he can't persuade those voters to swallow their broader doubts and back him in
November 2020, his narrow path to reelection could disappear altogether.
So it's not surprising that CNN and other media organizations last week cited
sources as saying that Trump is more and more worried about the economy after a
week of grim forecasts.
Trump also spoke to the CEOs of big banks to ask their assessments of the economy
last week and was told that his tariffs were making the situation worse, CNBC
reported.
In what was widely seen as a first acknowledgment that his test of wills with China
is harming Americans, Trump also delayed the imposition of billions of dollars in
new tariffs to protect consumers during the crucial Christmas holiday shopping
period.
The President also rolled out a tough new appeal at a campaign rally last week,
saying even voters who didn't like him should stick with him for their own
financial well being.
Trump tells crowd it has 'no choice' but to vote for him over economy
Trump tells crowd it has 'no choice' but to vote for him over economy
"You have no choice but to vote for me, because (if) your 401(k)'s down the tubes,
everything's gonna be down the tubes," Trump said in Manchester, New Hampshire, on
Thursday. "So whether you love me or hate me, you gotta vote for me."
Earlier, Trump had told reporters that economic growth would end if he is turfed
out of the White House after four years.
"The fact that I won lifted our economy greatly. And if I didn't win, it would go
down," Trump said. "And, frankly, if, for some reason that happened in the 2020
election, you'll see this economy go down the tubes. I will tell you that right
now."
Trump team sends message of coordinated economic optimism
Trump's top economic advisers sent a coordinated signal of brash optimism about the
economy on Sunday, perhaps intended just as much for a fretful President as outside
consumption.
Aides got Trump to delay tariffs by telling President it could 'ruin
Christmas'
Aides got Trump to delay tariffs by telling President it could 'ruin Christmas'
"No, I don't see a recession. And let me add just one theme ... Just one theme.
We're doing pretty darn well, in my judgment. Let's not be afraid of optimism,"
Larry Kudlow, the White House's chief economic adviser, said on NBC's "Meet The
Press."
Peter Navarro, Trump's top White House trade adviser denied the trade war was
hurting Americans, said it was seriously damaging China, and called the Trump
economy "the best game on the globe."
Speaking to Tapper on "State of the Union," Navarro also accused the Federal
Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell of "suppressing" investment and exports.
"The Federal Reserve Chairman should look in the mirror and say 'I raised rates too
far, too fast and I cost this economy a full percentage point of growth,'" Navarro
said.