NIGERIA STOCK MARKET GENERAL COMMENT /MSCI POSITION (NSE STOCK MARKET

WEATHER REPORT) - FOR 16 AUGUST 2019

MSCI MOVEMENT

MSCI on 15 August still inactive in the market.

INDEX MOVEMENT
For 15 August 2019 there were 9 gainers and 22 losers index closed lower for the day at
27063.03. The index movement for 2019 is now -13.90%, was -13.83%, previous trading day.
DAILY PIVOT POINTS

For Friday 16 August 2019, projection for the Nigeria All Share Index, expected High is
27156.94 Low 26932.28, Pivot for the day 27026.18.

LEVELS TO NOTE FOR THE WEEK

The trend is down, temporarily we can forget support for this week. At least this will remove
the temptation for us to still think of buying. We at Target Technical Analysis are saying no
support for now!!! Do not forget that MSCI may likely show up on the selling side to add fire
to the downtrend.
DRIVERS OF THE MARKET
Earnings expectation and Oil price instability (foreign funds not likely to be interested in Nigeria
equities)

STOCK AND STAGE IN THE MARKET- 14 AUGUST 2019 2019 TO 16 AUGUST 2019
See the attched JPEG file.
RESULTS/COMMENTS ON RECENT MAJOR RESULTS (YOU CAN CATCH THIS IN OUR PROFIT
FORCAST/SOME IN AGE ANALYSIS)
The last set of major results released can be summarized as follows:
Conoil- Profit above our forecast, profit is from aggressive cut cutting. Can consider for short
term
Cileasing- Fair result, financial charges and pending shares reconstruction is an issue, avoid
WAPIC- Result is below our forecast, avoid.
Consolidated Hallmark Insurance: 2nd qtr is 92% increase in profit over 2018 figure. Good for
Consideration.
AIICO- Performance is above our forecast. Good for consideration
Champion- Actual performance is better than forecast, this company is the best in
performance in the brewery sector as long as the alliance with Nigerian Breweries is in place
Courtville- 2nd qtr actual lower than our forecast.NGN74m producing profit is like from one
off business. Risky company avoid
Custodian- Flat result
Eternal- 2nd qtr actual is far below forecast. Avoid
MRS- This company is going, going……………..except things change soon, this company is going
down
Vitafoam- Up on all fronts good to buy on pullbacks
Cutix- Fair result, but not good enough Avoid
Courtville- I see a pit here, a one-time income of about 74m, showed up in the account.
Remove this income, the 2nd qtr account is a loss
Berger Paint- Disappointing although over that of 2018, but not worth our money for now
Nahco- Fair result. This company is cutting cost to the maximum. Good for short term
Seplat- Flat result, safe for tax reduction, result would have been same as last year.
Avoid/short term only
Dangote Cement- Flat result , avoid/short term only
Union Bank- Fair result. Worth keeping in mind due to the Access Bank rumor. And with
Access bank likely to declare a good result, Access can easily buy a smaller bank.

CAP- result below expectation, financial expenses high. Indirectly this will impact UACN
negatively
MTN- Good result, slightly above our expectation. This is company that is worth our portfolio,
if we can buy at a good price.
Wema Bank- Fantastic result. In line with our expectation
Caverton- Good result, but as previously planned, we may need to take whatever profit we
see around November December 2019.
CCNN- Good result, but this may be stock for 2020
ETI- GP is falling, avoid the stock
Glaxosmith- Fair result, look like the best company in the pharmaceutical sector for now.
Total- GP falling 81% fall in profit compared with 2018. Avoid
Julius Berger: Overall result was down as expected EPS for current year reduced by 24%
compared with 2018. GP (gross profit ratio) was also down compared with last year.
Observed some confusion, in Profit after tax, but the EPS is final determinant of performance.
FNML: Result was better than expected as result of financial charges reduction. Main
business still problematic as indicated by the falling GP
NPF Microfinance Bank: Good result above our forecast, but African factor is operating here.
It is possible for one animal to eat all the money one day
Fisdon: Performed below our forecast. GP going down, expenses going up. Double trouble
avoid.
Transcorp: A disappointing result, one may need to avoid this equity for 2019 except for very
short term opportunities
Afriprud: Fair result for 2nd Qtr 2019, but 3rd qtr meeting the 2nd quarter performance is in
doubt. Good for short term only
United Capital: Lower profit in line with our forecast. We should avoid the stock, probability
of 3rd quarter taking the company to profitability is low, except the company is involved in
one of the recent big IPO (will check this latter), I know MTN was Stanbic, for Airtel I am sure.
WAPCO: Fantastic 2nd qtr June 2019 result. Let us see the market reaction to this. We are to
avoid buying at higher price, we let the people keep buying and then wait for retracement or
good resistance becoming support to enter. We will be monitoring this in our weekly circle
report.
Redstar Express: Good 2nd qtr result, better than our expectation and gross profit ratio
increasing. Good result but still below our 25% standard, actual standing at 20% over that of
2018
Mobil: Still according to forecast, PAT reduced by 23%, against our 30% reduction. Still a
troubled company in a troubled Industry.
Ikeja Hotel: One of the few companies still standing in a troubled industry. Now purely to be
held as a speculative investment.
Many of our expectations on the results currently released came as expected although not 100%, but
good enough for a trade/investment plan (full details included in the mail to subscribers).

The analyses of the quarterly results (profit after Tax only is used) are shown below in either the
forecast or the drill down table. Part of the way we can use the report is that is a company declare lower
results for 3 quarters consecutively, it is better to sell that stock and look for better equity. Equally we
try to avoid buying a stock at least 2 to 1 week prior to release of result
Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may
want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses
without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least
have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target
technical analysis and is not to be distributed without our authorization.

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