1

STATISTICS UPDATE
Oct.’18 to June’19
 CONTENTS

2  DOMESTIC SITUATION
 Sugar production till June 2019
 Sugar production, despatches, stock
 Sugar Balance Sheet 2018-19
 Ex-mill sugar Prices in major States
 Cane Price Arrears

 GLOBAL SUGAR SCENARIO

 Projections by ISO for 2019-20
 Projections by Platts Kingsman
 Forecasts of INTL FC STONE and DATAGRO
 Raw sugar price in Oct. – Junelast 6 years)
 White sugar price in London market Oct.– June (last 6 years)
 Sugar prices in different countries
 Sugar production in 2018-19

3  During 2018-19 SS, area under sugarcane has increased by 10% over 2017-
18 but the cane production has come down from 414 mn. tons to 412 mn.
tons due to drop in cane yield.
 Sugar mills are expected to crush about 300 mn. tons in 2018-19 SS and to
produce about 329.5 - 330 lac tons in the entire season.
 Till 30th June 2019, sugar mills produced 328.09 lac tons of sugar,
compared to 321.97 lac tons produced last year on the corresponding date.
 U.P. mills ended their season with a production of 118.23 lac tons in 2018-
19 SS vs. 120.45 lac tons produced in 2017-18 SS.
 Maharashtra’s sugar production was 107.19 lac tons till June 2019, similar
to 2017-18 when it was 107.22 lac tons.
 With few sugar mills to operate in Tamil Nadu & Karnataka in the special
season July - September, sugar production in this special season is
estimated to be around 1.5 - 2 lac tons.
 Sugar recovery during 2018-19 SS is expected to end at about 11.02% vs.
10.74% achieved last year.
 Month-wise sugar production (October – June)
(in lac tons)

4 State Oct’18 Nov’18 Dec’18 Jan’19 Feb’19 March’19 April’19 May’19 June’19

A.P & Telangana 0.27 1.95 3.67 5.70 7.25 7.56 7.65 7.65

BIHAR 0.54 2.27 4.16 5.83 7.49 8.36 8.42 8.42

GUJARAT 0.21 2.05 4.29 6.66 8.79 10.64 11.21 11.21 11.21

HARYANA 0.29 1.55 2.91 4.22 5.68 6.82 6.90 6.90

KARNATAKA 1.20 8.40 21.03 33.76 41.73 43.18 43.25 43.25 43.25

M.P. & RAJ. & CHA. 0.17 1.30 2.81 4.21 5.21 5.49 5.58 5.58

MAHARASHTRA 1.32 18.89 44.57 70.99 92.88 105.16 107.15 107.19 107.19

PUNJAB 0.10 1.21 2.97 4.59 6.37 7.65 7.80 7.80

T.NADU & PONDY. 0.48 0.71 1.51 2.86 4.63 6.33 7.02 7.11 7.45

UP 9.14 31.07 52.86 73.87 95.67 112.80 117.91 118.23

UTTARAKHAND 0.11 0.87 1.74 2.54 3.44 3.97 3.97 3.97

OTHERS 0.02 0.10 0.20 0.31 0.40 0.43 0.43 0.43

ALL INDIA 3.21 40.69 111.72 185.59 249.30 296.82 321.71 327.42 328.08
 State-wise sugar production in three seasons from October to June

5 STATES Sugar Production (in lac tons)

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Maharashtra 42.01 107.22 107.19
U. P. 87.73 120.41 118.23
Karnataka 20.51 36.55 20.51
Tamil Nadu 9.75 5.43 9.75
A.P & Telangana 5.01 7.31 7.65
Gujarat 8.85 11.05 11.21
Punjab 6.92 8.24 7.80
Haryana 6.68 8.43 6.90
Bihar 5.26 7.16 8.42
M.P. & Rajasthan 4.16 5.57 5.58
Uttarakhand 3.46 4.19 3.97
Others 0.43 0.41 0.43
ALL INDIA 200.77 321.97 328.08
 State-wise domestic sales in October – June (in lac tons)

74.66
80.00

68.26
66.36
70.00
57.62
53.91

60.00
48.98

50.00

40.00

25.67
24.95
30.00 22.07

20.00

10.68
7.69
7.01

6.75

6.45
5.71

5.38
5.22
10.00

4.88
0.00
Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Karnataka Gujarat Tamil Nadu A.P & Telangana

Oct-June'17 Oct-June'18 Oct-June'19

All India sugar sales Oct –June’19 (in lac tons)

36.00

30.11
31.00

23.65
23.17
26.00

22.81
22.66

22.52
22.47

21.74
21.70
21.38

21.38

21.20

21.09

20.89
20.51

20.43
20.08
19.99

19.56
19.43

19.52
19.29

19.20

18.60
18.37

21.00

17.16
16.84

16.00

11.00

6.00

1.00
Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan Feb Mar April May June

2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

 State-wise despatches in domestic and global market (Oct-June’19)

In lac tons
8
Despatches for Exports by
STATES
Despatches in domestic market sugar mills
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Maharashtra 48.98 57.62 53.91 0.39 2.13 15.83
U. P. 66.36 74.66 68.26 0.02 0.05 5.47
Karnataka 22.07 25.67 24.95 0.05 0.12 5.12
Tamil Nadu 10.68 6.45 5.71
A.P & Telangana 5.22 5.38 4.88 0.13
Gujarat 7.01 7.69 6.75 0.05 1.73
Punjab 5.45 4.73 5.17
Haryana 5.26 5.08 5.09
Bihar 4.37 4.16 4.64
M.P. 3.70 4.32 2.45 0.44
Uttarakhand 3.05 2.33 2.44 0.01
Others 0.61 0.38 0.42
ALL INDIA 182.76 198.47 184.67 0.46 2.35 28.73*

*Excluding deemed exports on a/c of sugar delivered to port based refineries

 Closing stock as on 30th June’19
In lac tons
9
STATES Closing Stock
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
Maharashtra 30.85 62.08 78.18
U. P. 33.81 55.06 79.59
Karnataka 9.49 16.14 24.27
Tamil Nadu 3.73 1.84 4.33
A.P & Telangana 1.66 2.90 4.46
Gujarat 5.10 5.67 6.25
Punjab 3.15 4.99 6.06
Haryana 3.50 4.69 5.07
Bihar 1.93 3.71 6.05
M.P. 1.12 1.76 3.76
Uttarakhand 1.69 2.81 3.69
Others 0.15 0.10 0.10
ALL INDIA 96.18 161.75 221.81
 Closing balance on 30th Sep. 2019
10 Lac tons
Particulars As on 30th Sep.
2019
Opening balance 107.20
(as on 1st Oct, 2018)
Estimated sugar production 330.00

Sugar availability during the season 437.20

Estimated sugar consumption 260.00

Estimated exports 35.00

Closing balance (as on 30th Sept, 2019) 142.20

2
 Top Importers of Indian Sugar from Oct-June

11 S.NO Countries Total Exports*

1. Afghanistan 203613
2. Bangladesh 493455
3. Djibouti 253636
4. Ethiopia 100000
5. Iran 502813
6. Ivory Coast 174100
7. Somalia 445200
8. Sri Lanka 405681
9. Sudan 685808
10. UAE 107167

* Includes sugar exports under AAS and other schemes

 FRP Vs Ex-mill sugar prices

300 3800
280 3620
275 3600
260 255 3400
240
3148 230 230 3200
3120
220 220 3121 3074
2951 2951
210 3000
200 2917
2800
180 2727
170
2600
160 2492

140 139.12
145 2400
129.84
120 2200

100 2000
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19(till
June)

FRP Avg. ex-mill price

 All India average ex-mill sugar price & retail prices
13
50.00
Rs. /kilo

45.00 43.36
42.50
41.37
40.35 38.59
40.00 39.01 38.79 38.52 38.44 38.25 38.14 38.34
36.88
36.25 37.41
35.15
35.00
32.40 32.10 31.50
31.70 31.60
31.00 31.00
30.00 30.40 30.10 30.00 30.00
30.00 31.30
27.50
26.50

25.00

20.00

Av. Ex-mill price Av. Retail price

 Uttar Pradesh - Domestic ex-mill price (Rs./qtl)

3900
14
3700 3723

3542
3500

3350 3334
3300 3322 3316
3258 3177 3260
3229 3226
3184 3201 3149 3171
3100 3110
3074 3094
3110

2900 2876
2806

2700

2500
Dec'17

Dec'18
Sept'18
Feb'18

Feb'19
June'18

June'19
May'18

July'18

May'19
Mar'18

Aug'18

Mar'19
April'18

April'19
Nov'17

Jan'18

Oct'18

Nov'18

Jan'19
Oct'17
 Maharashtra - Domestic ex-mill price (Rs./qtl)

3700
15

3500 3501

3414

3300
3115
3115
3153 3133 3100
3100 3107

3018 3030
2988 3000 3006
2968 3100
2948 2938 2927
2900 2904

2700 2710

2569
2500
Dec'17

Dec'18
Sept'18
Feb'18

Feb'19
June'18

June'19
May'18

July'18

May'19
Mar'18

Aug'18

Mar'19
April'18

April'19
Nov'17

Jan'18

Oct'18

Nov'18

Jan'19
Oct'17
 Karnataka - Domestic ex-mill price (Rs./qtl)

3700
16
3532
3500
3442

3300

3162 3100
3130 3115
3100 3104
3072
3020 3021 3111
2999 2994 3002 3100
2961 2965
2943
2900 2904

2769
2700

2576
2500
Dec'17

Dec'18
Sept'18
Feb'18

Feb'19
June'18

June'19
May'18

July'18

May'19
Mar'18

Aug'18

Mar'19
April'18

April'19
Nov'17

Jan'18

Oct'18

Nov'18

Jan'19
Oct'17
 Tamil Nadu - Domestic ex-mill price (Rs./qtl)

3300
17
3268
3250

3228

3200 3199 3200 3200

3166 3165
3150

3125

3100
3080

3050

3000
Dec'18

Feb'19

June'19
May'19
Mar'19

April'19
Nov'18

Jan'19
Oct'18
Cane arrears reached historic levels in Mar 2019

Rs. in crore
35000
33000
31000 30000
29000
27000
25000
23000
21000 20099 19780
19000
18648
17000
15000 13530
12702
13000
11000 9526
9000
8577
7000
5000
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 (As on
31st Mar)
Cane price arrears as on 30th June

Rs. Crore 18512

16547
15370

11139

5821
4248 4934 4881

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

 Preliminary estimates for 2019-20 SS

20  Based on Satellite images captured in the month of June’19, ISMA has

estimated the total area for harvesting in 2019-20 SS at 49.31 lac tons,
which is over 10% less than the area harvested for 2018-19 SS.

 As per preliminary estimates of ISMA, sugar production in 2019-20 SS is

estimated to be about 282 lac tons, this is about 14.4% less as compared to
329.5 to 330 lac tons expected to be produced in 2018-19 SS.

 Sugar production from U.P. in 2019-20 SS is estimated at 120.09 lac tons,

about 2 lac tons more than 2018-19 SS.

 In case of Maharashtra, sugarcane area is estimated to have come down by

about 30% for 2019-20, due to poor rainfall and hence sugar output is
estimated to be down at 70.08 lac tons, i.e. about 37 lac tons less.
 State-wise estimated sugar production for 2019-20 SS
States (Preliminary Estimates June’19) Sugar Production (E) (lac tons)
21
Uttar Pradesh 120.09
Maharashtra 70.08
Karnataka 35.11
Tamil Nadu 7.53
Gujarat 10.55
A.P & Telangana 6.51
Bihar 8.34
Punjab 7.70
Haryana 6.74
M.P & Chattisgarh 4.54
Odisha 0.43
Uttarkhand 4.04
Others 0.15
All India 281.82
 2019-20 sugar balance sheet (estimated)
22 In lac tons

Description 2019-20 SS

Opening balance (as on 1st Oct) 142

Estimated sugar production 282

Sugar availability during the season 424

Estimated sugar consumption 260

Estimated exports 50 to 60

Closing balance (as on 30th Sept) 104 to 114

2
23

GLOBAL SUGAR SCENARIO

 Projections for 2019-20 by ISO
World sugar prices might recover due to expected global deficit of 3.5 million
24 mt in 2019/20 and 6 million mt in 2020/21 – ISO reported.

BRAZIL
 In terms of national crop year April’19-Mar’20- no significant change in sugar
production.
 In terms of Oct-Sep. roughly 2 mn. tons increased sugar output is expected.
THAILAND
 Farmers expect to switch over to other crop viz. cassava.
 20% drop in cane prices lead to crop diversion by farmers.
 Higher cane juice for ethanol production is expected.
 Sugar output to drop by 2 mn. tons year on year
EUROPEAN UNION
 Beet acreage is expected to drop by 5% in 2019-20, but higher yields are
expected.
 Sugar output in 2019-20 is estimated to increase by 0.6 mn. tons year on
year.
 Projections for 2019-20 by Platts Kingsman

25 BRAZIL
 Cane utilisation for sugar production expected at 34.2%.
 Sugar production estimated to drop by 800000 tons.
 CS Brazil to produce 25.3 to 25.7 mn. tons in 2019-20 MY (Apr’19-
Mar’20)

EUROPEAN UNION
 Beet acreage estimated at 1.688 mn. ha, down 5.1% year on year.
 Below average rainfall affected sugar beet development, yield is expected
to be down than last year.
 Sugar production expected to fall to 17.5 mn. tons.
 Projections for 2019-20 by Platts Kingsman

26 CENTRAL AMERICA
Mexico
 Lack of rainfall in cane growing areas estimate to result drop in cane
production by 8%.
 Sugar output is estimated to drop by 3.5% to 6.2 mn. tons
Guatemala
 Sugar output estimated at 2.94 mn. tons.
Argentina
 Sugar output estimated at 1.6 mn. tons, up 2% year on year.
 Forecast by INTL FC stone for 2019-20

27  Global deficit estimated at 5.9 mn. tons.

 CS Brazil expects to produce 26.1 mn. tons of sugar.

 India’s production projected at 28.2 mn. tons.

 Pakistan and China expected to produce 5.4 mn. tons and 10

mn. tons, respectively.
 Forecast by Datagro for 2019-20

28  CS Brazil mills to go for higher cane mix for ethanol.

 Drought in North and Northeast Thailand to hit cane
production.
 Lack of rainfall impacts beet recovery in EU.

 Russia to set record level production of 6.51 mn. tons.

 Nicargua to produce 7,85,000 tons, 6% lower than previous
season.
 Average Price of Raw Sugar (Oct-June)
14
29 ¢ per lb

13.15
13 12.94
12.79
12.68
12.54 12.53
12.47 12.45

12

11
10.80

10
Oct'18 Nov'18 Dec'18 Jan'19 Feb'19 Mar'19 April'19 May'19 June'19
 Average Price of White Sugar (Oct-June)
370
30 USD/ton
361.95
360

350

344.89 344.45 345.33

343.18
340
337.36

332.69
331.36
330

320

310 310.93

300
Oct'18 Nov'18 Dec'18 Jan'19 Feb'19 Mar'19 April'19 May'19 June'19
 31

250
270
290
310
330
350
370
390
410
01.10.18

307
05.10.18
11.10.18
18.10.18

341
24.10.18
30.10.18
06.11.18

366
12.11.18
19.11.18
27.11.18
03.12.18
07.12.18 356
13.12.18
19.12.18
27.12.18
04.01.2019
10.01.2019
369

16.01.2019
22.01.2019
28.01.2019
01.02.2019
364

07.02.2019
13.02.2019
19.02.2019

Brazil
25.02.2019
01.03.2019
357

11.03.2019
15.03.2019
21.03.2019
27.03.2019
02.04.2019
08.04.2019
357

12.04.2019
Domestic price in Sao Paulo (USD/ton)

18.04.2019
25.04.2019
02.05.2019
Wholesale price in Sao Paulo (Brazil)

08.05.2019
cane for production of ethanol than sugar, as domestic ethanol prices are better.

14.05.2019
20.05.2019
24.05.2019
347

30.05.2019
05.06.2019
11.06.2019
17.06.2019
Since sugar prices in domestic market have depressed, sugar mills in CS Brazil allocates more
325

24.06.2019
28.06.2019
 32

600
610
620
630
640
650
660
670
01.10.18

628
05.10.18
11.10.18
17.10.18
23.10.18

618
29.10.18
02.11.18
08.11.18
14.11.18
20.11.18
27.11.18

615
03.12.18
07.12.18
13.12.18

620
19.12.18
26.12.18
01.01.2019

625
07.01.2019
11.01.2019
637

17.01.2019
23.01.2019
29.01.2019
650

04.02.2019
08.02.2019
651

14.02.2019
Wholesale price in Thailand

20.02.2019

Thailand
26.02.2019
650

04.03.2019
08.03.2019
14.03.2019
643

20.03.2019
26.03.2019
01.04.2019
637

05.04.2019
11.04.2019
17.04.2019
637
Domestic sugar price in Thailand (USD/ton)

24.04.2019
30.04.2019
637

06.05.2019
10.05.2019
16.05.2019
22.05.2019
28.05.2019
03.06.2019
639
651

07.06.2019
13.06.2019
19.06.2019
25.06.2019
660
 33

650
690
710
730
750
790
810

670
770
09.10.18
12.10.18
17.10.18

692
22.10.18
25.10.18
30.10.18
02.11.18
08.11.18

723
13.11.18
16.11.18
21.11.18
27.11.18
30.11.18
05.12.18
10.12.18
13.12.18
18.12.18
21.12.18
02.01.2019 725
07.01.2019

688
10.01.2019
16.01.2019
22.01.2019
744

25.01.2019
30.01.2019
11.02.2019
15.02.2019
21.02.2019
26.02.2019
01.03.2019
774

06.03.2019
11.03.2019
14.03.2019
20.03.2019
Wholesale price in Chinese markets

26.03.2019
29.03.2019
03.04.2019
09.04.2019
12.04.2019
17.04.2019
24.04.2019
791

30.04.2019
09.05.2019
14.05.2019
17.05.2019
757

23.05.2019
29.05.2019
711

03.06.2019
10.06.2019
13.06.2019
18.06.2019
21.06.2019
26.06.2019
720
745
 34

350
400
450
500
550
600
01.10.18

564
05.10.18
10.10.18
16.10.18
19.10.18
24.10.18
29.10.18

539
02.11.18
08.11.18
570

13.11.18
19.11.18
23.11.18
28.11.18
03.12.18
07.12.18
12.12.18
18.12.18
21.12.18
09.01.2019
17.01.2019
531

23.01.2019
28.01.2019
01.02.2019
06.02.2019
13.02.2019
19.02.2019
505

22.02.2019
Wholesale price in Russia

27.02.2019
541

04.03.2019
07.03.2019
13.03.2019
18.03.2019
21.03.2019
27.03.2019
01.04.2019
527

04.04.2019
09.04.2019
12.04.2019
17.04.2019
504

24.04.2019
30.04.2019
13.05.2019
16.05.2019
475

21.05.2019
30.05.2019
447

05.06.2019
10.06.2019
14.06.2019
406
439

19.06.2019
24.06.2019
USD/ton

396

27.06.2019
436
462
 35

3.50
3.60
3.70
3.80
3.90
4.00
4.10
01.10.2018 4.20
07.10.2018

4.02
13.10.2018

3.84
19.10.2018

3.72
25.10.2018

3.69
31.10.2018
06.11.2018

3.64
12.11.2018

3.76
18.11.2018

3.80
24.11.2018
30.11.2018
06.12.2018
3.94

12.12.2018

3.86
18.12.2018
24.12.2018
30.12.2018

3.84
3.91
3.92

05.01.2019
11.01.2019
17.01.2019
3.90

23.01.2019
3.88

29.01.2019
Currency USD Vs BRL

04.02.2019
10.02.2019 3.64
16.02.2019
22.02.2019
3.75

28.02.2019
06.03.2019
12.03.2019
18.03.2019
3.87

24.03.2019
30.03.2019
3.78

05.04.2019
3.99

11.04.2019
17.04.2019
3.83

23.04.2019
29.04.2019
3.99

05.05.2019
11.05.2019
17.05.2019
23.05.2019
4.10

29.05.2019
04.06.2019
10.06.2019
3.92

16.06.2019
3.85

22.06.2019
28.06.2019
3.85
36
Statistics, charts and any other information given in this outlook have been collected and analysis
made from the reports of various agencies/sources believed to be reliable. However, ISMA is not
liable for ensuring the accuracy, completeness or timeless of the information which is provided as
general information for your reference only.

THANK YOU
Views/Suggestions may be sent to:

psdg@indiansugar.com