DAILY STOCK MARKET GUIDE FOR 22 AUGUST 2019

Hi,

MSCI on 22 has gone back to reclusive mode. Let us see if out at about USD60 can still make
the temporary bull to continue, also I am fairly optimistic that some news readers will probably
jump into the market to buy stocks that may fall soon.

We have updated the stage analysis sheet fully affected were: Transcorp, Nestle, Nahco, Conoil
etc. You can review the list.

Our recommendations for this week

 Afriprud – there is a caveat here, but at only NGN3.58 maximum and target 20%
immediate gain from the purchase price. It is a short term play for now.

You can check the stage analysis for more ideas. The stage analysis is still same as last week
as we could not complete the updated for this week, due to some issues beyond our control),
an updated version will be sent to you by tomorrow.

STOCK AND STAGES – This is now on the PDF attachment (a separate PDF is attached in case
the long PDF is not clear) with some additional information and equities arranged on
alphabetical basic for easy referencing.

As much as possible we are to avoid equities in stage 4. Best equities are those in stage
2. Stocks in wave 5 of any stage may be worth the risk sometimes for a short term gain.

Market still in stage 1 we cannot be aggressive with buying.

We have added the fundamental corner, which give list of fundamentally sound equities. This
is an important component of the Trend Cycle Trading System. Most of the time, we will as
much as possible pick stock from this list as our main selection for the week. Currently on the
list are Access, Wapic, Jaiz, CCNN, Cadbury, Wema, FCMB, Vitafoam and Seplat. However
we will use technical analysis to determine our entrance to these equities. Access for around
NGN6.00. More details will be released for Silver subscribers (minimum subscription
NGN2,000) as time goes on, as we will continue with the review of equities to see more equities
that will be added or removed from the list. We will double check the figures to make sure
that it is error free as much as possible.
At the bottom of the fundamental list, stocks to avoid are Total, Nahco, Champion, Courtville,
Fidelity etc, they are not looking good as per 2nd Quarter expected results.

The market is still in downtrend we need to be taking some profits, not a time to be too
aggressive.

MAJOR HIGHLIGHT OF RELEASED RESULTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Cadbury- 2nd quarter result was fair, the profit momentum slowed down a little bit, you can
check the actual 1st quarter profit and compare with 2nd quarter. Overall 2019 result is still
good, the 3rd quarter result will give us the final direction. Cadbury still okay for short term.

Trancorp- 2nd quarter actual result is still below par, except something dramatic happens on the
power side of the business 2019 result will remain lower than 2018, till 2019 year end. 2019 is
cloudy, don’t be aggressive in buying wait till we see the 3rd Quarter 2019 result. Good for short
term trading only.

RESULTS

Companies were next 2nd quarter result likely to be bullish (improvement over last year)
Cadbury, Jaiz Bank, Access Bank, WAPIC, Linkage Assurance etc

Companies were next 2nd quarter (2019), result likely to be bearish(no improvement over last
year) Union Bank, Courtville, Nascon (confirmed), May and Baker, Stanbic, Okomu, Eterna ,
Presco etc

Buy Waiting List

1. FCMB- If price closes above NGN1.68 it should be on our buy list
2. CCNN- Now under assessment. There seems to be some
buying going on. But we should wait till our indicators tell us is time
to enter. Buying around NGN10.00 may make some sense from
the fundamental side
3. Jaiz Bank- delivered good 1st Quarter result. Risk worth taking. One
can buy at about NGN0.48. If the 2nd qtr result is in line with 1st quarter,
this stock will close up on Unity Bank Price.
4. WAPCO. Seems to have discovered the profitability magic. We will
continue to follow up.
5. ACCESS Bank. I cannot see what will prevent this bank from
delivering a superlative 2nd quarter report, that is better than the 1st
quarter report.
 6. Union Bank- We want to keep our eyes on this bank. The bank will
likely deliver a better result from the 3rd quarter than what it did in
the earlier quarters.

Our Guiding Rules for the market

A. No buying on Mondays, market always give wrong signals due to retail traders
reacting to general news for the previous week/weekend
B. As much as possible avoid buying any stock from 2 weeks to result release dates and
immediately after release of result, postpone your buying consideration till after the
dividend payment date. Expectations of positive results are always priced into stock.
After a good result, market makers/stockbrokers will likely be the first that will like to
make money on that particular equity (you cannot prevent them from doing this, they
need to make some money too and this is like the easiest time for them to do).
C. A stock falling in prices does not mean cheap, wait for your indicators to tell you
when to buy, example was our trying to buy Transform about 2 weeks ago at above 2.37,
but the stock keep falling and we had to wait till this week when the technical just
clicked.
D. In period of bear market (price below 18sma), divide your buying at least to 2/3
tranches to take advantage of price retracements, not averaging down, your buying should
be completed in the next 5 trading days or at the next major support level, like if you are
interested in Access bank as at 25 March 2019, NGN5.50 is the next major support.

In view of the confusion where there are too many recommendations, our
recommendations are going to be very few from now henceforth. Also, to confirm that you
need to believe our recommendations, just note the prices of these our recommended stock
in excel sheet or somewhere, and then remind me if I forget to talk about them, we want to
measure the success ratio of our recommendations.

Thanks.
For: Target Technical Analysis

Yusuf Kelani
Caution: This is for information/educational purpose only. Data used are assumed to be
correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Note that
there is no perfect trading system, our only defense is to limit our losses.