Brexit

Brexit (/ˈbrɛksɪt, ˈbrɛɡzɪt/;[1] a portmanteau

of "British" and "exit") is the withdrawal of
the United Kingdom (UK) from the
European Union (EU). Following a
referendum held on 23 June 2016 in which
51.9 percent of those voting supported
leaving the EU, the Government invoked
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union,
starting a two-year process which was due
to conclude with the UK's exit on 29 March
2019. That deadline has since been
extended to 31 October 2019.[2][3]

Withdrawal from the EU has been

advocated by both left-wing and right-wing
Eurosceptics, while pro-Europeanists, who
also span the political spectrum, have
advocated continued membership and
maintaining the customs union and single
market. The UK joined the European
Communities (EC) in 1973 under the
Conservative government of Edward
Heath, with continued membership
endorsed by a referendum in 1975. In the
1970s and 1980s, withdrawal from the EC
was advocated mainly by the political left,
with the Labour Party's 1983 election
manifesto advocating full withdrawal. In
1987, the Single European Act, the first
major revision of 1957's Treaty of Rome,
formally established the single European
market and European Political
Cooperation.

From the 1990s, opposition to further

European integration came mainly from the
right. When in 1992 the Maastricht Treaty,
which created the European Union (EU)
and the single market and guaranteed the
four basic freedoms (the free movement
of goods, services, capital and people
around the EU) was brought before
Parliament, there were divisions within the
Conservative Party, leading to a rebellion
over the Treaty.

The UK Independence Party (UKIP), formed

in 1993, grew strongly in the early 2010s
and the influence of the cross-party
People's Pledge campaign has also been
described as influential in bringing about a
referendum. The Conservative Prime
Minister, David Cameron, pledged during
the campaign for the 2015 general election
to hold a new referendum—a promise
which he fulfilled in 2016 following
pressure from the Eurosceptic wing of his
party. Cameron, who had campaigned to
remain, resigned after the result and was
succeeded by Theresa May, his former
Home Secretary. She called a snap general
election less than a year later but lost her
overall majority. Her minority government
was supported in key votes by the
Democratic Unionist Party.

On 29 March 2017, the Government of the

United Kingdom invoked Article 50 of the
Treaty on European Union. Theresa May
announced the government's intention not
to seek permanent membership of the
European single market or the EU customs
union after leaving the EU and promised to
repeal the European Communities Act of
1972 and incorporate existing European
Union law into UK domestic law.
Negotiations with the EU officially started
in June 2017. In November 2018, the Draft
Withdrawal Agreement, negotiated
between the UK Government and the EU,
was published. The House of Commons
voted against the agreement by a margin
of 432 to 202 (the largest parliamentary
defeat in history for a sitting UK
government) on 15 January 2019, and
again on 12 March with a margin of 391 to
242 against the agreement. On 14 March
2019, the House of Commons voted for
the Prime Minister, Theresa May, to ask the
EU for such an extension of the period
allowed for the negotiation. Members from
across the House of Commons rejected
the agreement, with the leadership of the
Labour Party stating in the House of
Commons that any deal must maintain a
customs union and single market, and with
a large percentage of Conservative Party
members rejecting the Irish backstop as it
was drafted in the EU withdrawal
agreement.

The broad consensus among economists

is that Brexit will likely reduce the UK's real
per capita income in the medium term and
long term, and that the Brexit referendum
itself damaged the economy.[a] Studies on
effects since the referendum show a
reduction in GDP, trade and investment, as
well as household losses from increased
inflation. Brexit is likely to reduce
immigration from European Economic Area
(EEA) countries to the UK, and poses
challenges for UK higher education and
academic research. As of July 2019, the
size of the "divorce bill"—the UK's
inheritance of existing EU trade
agreements—and relations with Ireland
and other EU member states remains
uncertain. The precise impact on the UK
depends on whether the process will be a
"hard" or "soft" Brexit, or whether there is a
no-deal Brexit; whereby the UK would leave
the EU without a withdrawal agreement.

Terminology and etymology

In the wake of the referendum of 23 June
2016, many new pieces of Brexit-related
jargon have entered popular use.[17][18]

Article 50
Article 50 of the Treaty on European
Union is a procedure in the treaty that
sets out how member states can leave
the Union, with a two-year timetable for
leaving. Article 50 was triggered by
Prime Minister Theresa May at the end
of March 2017.
Backstop
A term referring to the government's
proposal to keep Northern Ireland in
some aspects of the European Union
Customs Union and of the European
Single Market to prevent a hard border in
Ireland, so as not to compromise the
Good Friday Agreement.
Blind / Blindfold Brexit
Coined in September 2018 to describe a
scenario where the UK leaves the EU
without clarity on the terms of a future
trade deal.[19][20] EU and British
negotiators would then have until 31
December 2020 to sign off on a future
trade deal, during which time the UK
would effectively remain a member of
the EU, but with no voting rights.[21][22]
Brexit
Brexit (like its early variant, Brixit)[23] is a
portmanteau of "British" and "exit".
Grammatically, it has been called a
complex nominal.[24] The first
attestation in the Oxford English
Dictionary is a Euractiv blog post by
Peter Wilding on 15 May 2012.[25][26][27]
It was coined by analogy with "Grexit",
attested on 6 February 2012 to refer to a
hypothetical withdrawal of Greece from
the eurozone (and possibly also the EU
altogether, although there was never a
clear popular mandate for it).[28] At
present, Brexit is impending under the EU
Treaties and the UK Acts of Parliament,
and the current negotiations pursuant
thereto.[29][27]
Canada plus / Canada model
This is shorthand for a model where the
United Kingdom leaves the European
Union and signs a free trade agreement.
This would allow the UK to control its
own trade policy as opposed to jointly
negotiating alongside the European
Union, but would require rules of origin
agreements to be reached for UK–EU
trade. It is likely this would lead to trade
being less "free" than joining the EFTA,
and result in additional border controls
being required, which is an issue of
contention, particularly on the island of
Ireland. The Canadian–European Union
deal took seven years to negotiate, but
Brexiteers argue it would take much less
time between the UK and EU as the two
participants already align on regulatory
standards.[30]
Chequers Agreement
The short name given by the media to
The framework for the future relationship
between the United Kingdom and the
European Union, the government's white
paper drawn up at Chequers and
published on 12 July 2018, which set out
the sort of relationship the UK
government wanted with the EU after
Brexit.[31][32] The government published
the updated draft on 22 November
2018.[33]
Clean break Brexit
This term, used particularly by the Brexit
Party, is more generally known as a no-
deal Brexit.[34]
Customs Union
A customs union is an agreement under
which two or more countries agree not
to impose taxes on imported goods
from one another and to apply a
common tariff on goods imported from
countries not party to the agreement.
For more information.
Divorce bill
It is expected that the UK will make a
contribution toward financial
commitments that it had approved while
still a member of the EU, but are still
outstanding. The amount owed is
officially referred to as the financial
settlement but has informally been
referred to as an exit bill or divorce
bill.[35] While serving as Brexit Secretary,
Dominic Raab said the UK will not pay
the full financial settlement to the EU in
a no-deal scenario but would instead
pay a significantly lower amount to
cover the UK's "strict legal
obligations".[36] The UK Government's
estimate of the financial settlement in
March 2019 was £38 billion.[37] After
normal member contributions payable to
31 October 2019 of £5 billion, a final
settlement of £33 billion on 31 October
is currently estimated.[38]
Hard and soft Brexit
"Hard Brexit" and "soft Brexit" are
unofficial terms that are commonly used
by news media[39] to describe the
prospective relationship between the UK
and the EU after withdrawal. A hard
Brexit (also called a no-deal Brexit)
usually refers to the UK leaving the EU
and the European Single Market with few
or no deals (trade or otherwise) in place,
meaning that trade will be conducted
under the World Trade Organization's
rules, and services will no longer be
provided by agencies of the European
Union (such as aviation safety).[40] Soft
Brexit encompasses any deal that
involves retaining membership in the
European Single Market and at least
some free movement of people
according to European Economic Area
(EEA) rules.[41] Theresa May's "Chequers
agreement" embraced some aspects of
a "soft" Brexit.[42] Note that the EEA and
the deal with Switzerland contain fully
free movement of people, and that the
EU has wanted that to be included in a
deal with UK on fully free trade.
Hard border
Because of Brexit, a physical border
could be erected between Northern
Ireland, a constituent part of the United
Kingdom, and the Republic of Ireland, an
EU member state. This raises concerns
about the future of the Good Friday
Agreement (or Belfast Agreement), a
peace deal signed in 1998 which helped
to end the Northern Ireland conflict (The
Troubles).
Indicative vote
Indicative votes are votes by members
of parliament on a series of non-binding
resolutions. They are a means of testing
the will of the House of Commons on
different options relating to one
issue.[43] MPs have voted on eight
different options for the next steps in
the Brexit process on 27 March 2019;
however, none of the proposals earned a
majority in the indicative votes.[44] MPs
also voted on four options on 1 April
2019 in the second round of indicative
votes. Still, none of the proposals
earned a majority.[45]
Leaver
Those supporting Brexit are sometimes
referred to as "Leavers".[46][47]
Alternatively the term "Brexiteers",[48][49]
or "Brexiters" has been used to describe
adherents of the Leave
campaign.[50][51][52][53] Likewise, the
pejorative term "Brextremist", a
portmanteau of "Brexiter" and
"Extremist" has been used by some
outlets to describe Leavers of an
overzealous, uncompromising
disposition.[54][55][56]
Lexit
also Lexiter. A portmanteau of 'left-wing'
and 'Brexit', referring to left-wing
advocacy of EU withdrawal.[57][58][59][60]
Meaningful vote
A meaningful vote is a vote under
section 13 of the European Union
(Withdrawal) Act 2018, requiring the
government to arrange for a motion
proposing approval of the outcome of
negotiations with the EU to be debated
and voted on by the House of Commons
before the European Parliament decides
whether it consents to the withdrawal
agreement being concluded on behalf of
the EU in accordance with Article 50(2)
of the Treaty on European Union.[61]
Managed no-deal
"Managed no-deal Brexit"[62] or
"managed no deal Brexit"[63] was
increasingly used near the end of 2018,
in respect of the complex series of
political, legal and technical decisions
needed if there is no withdrawal
agreement treaty with the EU when the
UK exits under the Article 50 withdrawal
notice. The Institute for Government has
advised that the concept is
unrealistic.[64]
No-deal Brexit
This means the UK would leave the
European Union without a withdrawal
agreement.[65]
Norway model/ Norway plus
This is shorthand for a model where the
United Kingdom leaves the European
Union but becomes a member of the
European Free Trade Association (EFTA)
and the European Economic Area,
possibly with the addition of a customs
union ("plus"). EFTA and EEA
membership would allow the UK to
remain in the single market but without
having to be subject to the Common
Fisheries Policy, Common Agricultural
Policy, and the European Court of
Justice (ECJ). The UK would be subject
to the EFTA court, which largely
shadows the ECJ, have to transfer a
large amount of EU law into UK law, and
have little say on shaping EU rules
(some of which the UK will be compelled
to take on). The UK would also have to
allow freedom of movement between
the EU and UK, which was seen as a key
issue of contention in the referendum.[66]
People's Vote
People's Vote is an advocacy group
launched in April 2018, who calls for a
public vote on the final Brexit deal. The
People's Vote march is part of a series
of demonstrations against Brexit.
Remainer
Those in favour of the UK remaining in
the EU are sometimes referred to as
"Remainers".[67] The derogatory term
"Remoaner" (a blend of "remainer" and
"moan") is sometimes used by Brexiters
to describe adherents of the Remain
campaign.[68][50][52]
Second referendum
A second referendum (otherwise known
as People's vote) has been proposed by
a number of politicians and pressure
groups. The Electoral Commission of UK
has the responsibility for nominating
lead campaign groups for each possible
referendum outcome.[69]
Slow Brexit
The term ‘slow Brexit’ was first coined
by British Prime Minister Theresa May
on 25 March 2019 as she spoke to
Parliament, warning MPs that Article 50
could be extended beyond 22 May,
slowing down the Brexit process. A
‘slow Brexit’ implies a longer period of
 political uncertainty in which members
of Parliament will debate the next steps
of Britain's departure from the European
Union.[70][71]

Background: the United

Kingdom and Europe

The Inner Six (blue) and Outer Seven (green) of

European integration in 1961
The "Inner Six" European countries signed
the Treaty of Paris in 1951, establishing
the European Coal and Steel Community
(ECSC). The 1955 Messina Conference
deemed that the ECSC was a success, and
resolved to extend the concept further,
thereby leading to the 1957 Treaties of
Rome establishing the European Economic
Community (EEC) and the European
Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). In
1967, these became known as the
European Communities (EC). The UK
attempted to join in 1963 and 1967, but
these applications were vetoed by the
President of France, Charles de Gaulle.[72]
Accession and period of European
Union membership

Some time after de Gaulle's relinquishing

of the French presidency the UK
successfully applied for EC membership,
and the Conservative prime minister
Edward Heath signed the Treaty of
Accession in 1972.[73] Parliament passed
the European Communities Act later that
year[74] and the UK joined Denmark and
Ireland in becoming a member of the EC on
1 January 1973.[75]

The opposition Labour Party won the

February 1974 general election without a
majority and then contested the
subsequent October 1974 general election
with a commitment to renegotiate Britain's
terms of membership of the EC, believing
them to be unfavourable, and then hold a
referendum on whether to remain in the EC
on the new terms.[76] Labour again won the
election (this time with a small majority),
and in 1975 the United Kingdom held its
first ever national referendum, asking
whether the UK should remain in the
European Communities. Despite significant
division within the ruling Labour Party,[77]
all major political parties and the
mainstream press supported continuing
membership of the EC. On 5 June 1975,
67.2 per cent of the electorate and all but
two[78] UK counties and regions voted to
stay in;[79] support for the UK to leave the
EC in 1975 appears unrelated to the
support for Leave in the 2016
referendum.[80]

Comparison of results of 1975 and 2016 referendums

The Labour Party campaigned in the 1983
general election on a commitment to
withdraw from the EC without a
referendum,[81] although after a heavy
defeat Labour changed its policy.[81] In
1985, the Thatcher government ratified the
Single European Act—the first major
revision to the Treaty of Rome—without a
referendum.

In October 1990, under pressure from

senior ministers and despite Margaret
Thatcher's deep reservations, the United
Kingdom joined the European Exchange
Rate Mechanism (ERM), with the pound
sterling pegged to the deutschmark.
Thatcher resigned as Prime Minister the
following month, amid Conservative Party
divisions arising partly from her
increasingly Eurosceptic views. The United
Kingdom and Italy were forced to withdraw
from the ERM in September 1992, after the
pound sterling and the lira came under
pressure from currency speculation ("Black
Wednesday").[82]

Under the Maastricht Treaty, the European

Communities became the European Union
on 1 November 1993,[83] reflecting the
evolution of the organisation from an
economic union into a political union.[84]
Denmark, France, and Ireland held
referendums to ratify the Maastricht
Treaty. In accordance with British
constitutional convention, specifically that
of parliamentary sovereignty, ratification in
the UK was not subject to approval by
referendum. Despite this, the British
constitutional historian Vernon Bogdanor
wrote at the time that there was "a clear
constitutional rationale for requiring a
referendum" because although MPs are
entrusted with legislative power by the
electorate, they are not given authority to
transfer that power (the UK's previous
three referendums all concerned the
transfer of parliamentary powers). Further,
as the ratification of the treaty was in the
manifestos of the three major political
parties, voters opposed to ratification had
no way to express that opposition. For
Bogdanor, while the ratification of the
treaty by the House of Commons might be
legal, it would not be legitimate—which
requires popular consent. The way in
which the treaty was ratified, he judged,
was "likely to have fundamental
consequences both for British politics and
for Britain's relationship with the European
Community."[85][86] This perceived
democratic deficit directly led to the
formation of the Referendum Party and the
United Kingdom Independence Party.
Euroscepticism, opt-outs and 'outers'

Prime ministers and Tory leaders Thatcher (l.) and

Cameron (r.) used eurosceptic rhetoric while being in
favour of British EU membership and the development
of the European Single Market. Euroscepticism—and in
particular the impact of the UK Independence Party
(founder and leader Farage pictured m.) on the
Conservatives' election results—contributed to
Cameron's 2015 attempt to renegotiate the UK's EU
membership and ultimately the holding of the 2016
referendum.

Thatcher, who had supported the common

market and the Single European Act, in the
Bruges speech of 1988 warned against "a
European super-state exercising a new
dominance from Brussels". She influenced
Daniel Hannan, who in 1990 founded the
Oxford Campaign for Independent Britain;
"With hindsight, some see this as the start
of the campaign for Brexit", Financial Times
later wrote.[87] In 1994, Sir James
Goldsmith formed the Referendum Party
to contest the 1997 general election on a
platform of providing a referendum on the
nature of the United Kingdom's relationship
with the rest of the European Union.[88][89]
The party fielded candidates in 547
constituencies at that election, and won
810,860 votes—2.6 per cent of the total
votes cast[90]—but failed to win a
parliamentary seat due to the vote being
spread across the country. The
Referendum Party disbanded after
Goldsmith's death in 1997.

The UK Independence Party (UKIP), a

Eurosceptic political party, was formed in
1993. It achieved third place in the UK
during the 2004 European elections,
second place in the 2009 European
elections and first place in the 2014
European elections, with 27.5 per cent of
the total vote. This was the first time since
the 1910 general election that any party
other than Labour or the Conservatives
had taken the largest share of the vote in a
nationwide election.[91] UKIP's electoral
success in the 2014 European election is
documented as the strongest correlate of
the support for the leave campaign in the
2016 referendum.[92]

UKIP won two by-elections (triggered by

defecting Conservative MPs) in 2014; in
the 2015 general election, the party took
12.6 per cent of the total vote and held
one of the two seats won in 2014.[93]
Policy opt-outs of European Union member states view ·t alk ·edit

Policy area

Area of
# of Economic Security
freedom,
opt-ins and and Charter of
Country Schengen security Social
or Monetary Defence Fundamental
Area and Chapter
opt‑outs Union Policy Rights
justice
(EMU) (CSDP)
(AFSJ)

3 INT OO OO OO NO NO
 Denmark

2 OI NO NO OI NO NO
 Ireland

1 NO NO NO NO OO NO
 Poland

 Unit ed 4 OI OO NO OI OO FO
Kingdom

Legend
 OI  — opt-in – possibility to opt in on a case-by-case basis.

 OO  – opt-out in place

 FO  – former opt-out that was subsequently abolished.

 INT  – participates on an intergovernmental basis, but not under EU law

 NO  – fully participating in policy area

Opinion polls 1977–2015

Both pro- and anti-EU views have had

majority support at different times since
1977.[94] In the European Communities
membership referendum of 1975, two-
thirds of British voters favoured continued
EC membership. There is Euroscepticism
both on the left and right of British
politics.[95][96][97]

According to a statistical analysis

published in April 2016 by Professor John
Curtice of Strathclyde University, surveys
showed an increase in Euroscepticism
(defined as a wish to sever or reduce the
powers of the EU) from 38% in 1993 to
65% in 2015. Euroscepticism should,
however, not be confused with the wish to
leave the EU: the BSA survey for the period
July–November 2015 showed that 60 per
cent backed the option to continue as an
EU member and 30 per cent backed the
option to withdraw.[98]

Referendum of 2016

Negotiations for membership reform

In 2012, Prime Minister David Cameron

initially rejected calls for a referendum on
the UK's EU membership,[99] but then
suggested the possibility of a future
referendum to endorse his proposed
renegotiation of Britain's relationship with
the rest of the EU.[100] According to the
BBC, "The prime minister acknowledged
the need to ensure the UK's [renegotiated]
position within the European Union had 'the
full-hearted support of the British people'
but they needed to show 'tactical and
strategic patience'."[101] On 23 January
2013, under pressure from many of his
MPs and from the rise of UKIP, Cameron
announced that a Conservative
government would hold an in-or-out
referendum on EU membership before the
end of 2017, on a renegotiated package, if
elected in the 7 May 2015 general
election.[102] This was included in the
Conservative Party manifesto for the
election.[103][104]
The Conservative Party won the election
with a majority. Soon afterwards, the
European Union Referendum Act 2015 was
introduced into Parliament to enable the
referendum. Cameron favoured remaining
in a reformed European Union, and sought
to renegotiate on four key points:
protection of the single market for non-
eurozone countries, reduction of "red tape",
exempting Britain from "ever-closer union",
and restricting immigration from the rest
of the European Union.[105]

In December 2015, opinion polls showed a

clear majority in favour of remaining in the
EU; they also showed support would drop
if Cameron did not negotiate adequate
safeguards for non-eurozone member
states, and restrictions on benefits for
non-British EU citizens.[106]

The outcome of the renegotiations was

announced in February 2016. Some limits
to in-work benefits for new EU immigrants
were agreed, but before they could be
applied, a member state such as the UK
would have to get permission from the
European Commission and then from the
European Council, which is composed of
the heads of government of every member
state.[107]
In a speech to the House of Commons on
22 February 2016, Cameron announced a
referendum date of 23 June 2016, and
commented on the renegotiation
settlement.[108] He spoke of an intention to
trigger the Article 50 process immediately
following a leave vote, and of the "two-year
time period to negotiate the arrangements
for exit."[109]

After the original wording for the

referendum question was challenged,[110]
the government agreed to change the
official referendum question to "Should the
United Kingdom remain a member of the
European Union or leave the European
Union?"

Campaign groups

A "Vote Leave" poster in Omagh, Northern Ireland,

saying "We send the EU £50 million every day. Let's
spend it on our NHS instead."

The official campaign group for leaving the

EU was Vote Leave[111] after a contest for
the designation with Leave.EU.[112][113]
Vote Leave was later found to have
exceeded its allowed spending limit during
the campaign.[114]

The official campaign to stay in the EU,

chaired by Stuart Rose, was known as
Britain Stronger in Europe, or informally as
'Remain'. Other campaigns supporting
remaining in the EU included Conservatives
In,[115] Labour in for Britain,[116] #INtogether
(Liberal Democrats),[117] Greens for a
Better Europe,[118] Scientists for EU,[119]
Environmentalists For Europe,[120]
Universities for Europe[121] and Another
Europe is Possible.[122]

Referendum result
The result was announced on the morning
of 24 June: 51.89 per cent voted in favour
of leaving the European Union, and 48.11
per cent voted in favour of remaining a
member of the European Union.[123][124]
Comprehensive results are available from
the UK Electoral Commission Referendum
Results site. A petition calling for a second
referendum attracted more than four
million signatures,[125][126] but was rejected
by the government on 9 July.[127]
United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
Nat ional result

Choice Votes %

Leave the European Union 17,410,742 51.89%

Remain a member of t he European Union 16,141,241 48.11%

Valid vot es 33,551,983 99.92%

Invalid or blank vot es 25,359 0.08%

Total votes 33,577,342 100.00%

Regist ered vot ers and t urnout 46,500,001 72.21%

Vot ing age populat ion and t urnout 51,356,768 65.38%

Source: Elect oral Commission

National referendum results (without spoiled ballots)

Remain:
Leave:
16,141,241
17,410,742 (51.9%)
(48.1%)
▲
  

Results by Country of the United Kingdom/region of

England (left) and by council district (GB) & UK
Parliament constituency (NI) (right)
   Leave
   Remain

Voter demographics and trends

According to researchers based at the

University of Warwick, areas with
"deprivation in terms of education, income
and employment were more likely to vote
Leave". The Leave vote tended to be
greater in areas which had lower incomes
and high unemployment, a strong tradition
of manufacturing employment, and in
which the population had fewer
qualifications.[128] It also tended to be
greater where there was a large flow of
Eastern European migrants (mainly low-
skilled workers) into areas with a large
share of native low-skilled workers.[128]
Those in lower social grades (especially
the 'working class') were more likely to
vote Leave, while those in higher social
grades (especially the 'upper middle
class') more likely to vote Remain.[129]

According to Thomas Sampson, an

economist at the London School of
Economics, "Older and less-educated
voters were more likely to vote 'leave' [...] A
majority of white voters wanted to leave,
but only 33 per cent of Asian voters and 27
per cent of black voters chose leave. There
was no gender split in the vote [...] Leaving
the European Union received support from
across the political spectrum [...] Voting to
leave the European Union was strongly
associated with holding socially
conservative political beliefs, opposing
cosmopolitanism, and thinking life in
Britain is getting worse".[5] Econometric
studies show that "education and, to a
lesser extent, age were the strongest
demographic predictors of voting
behaviour". Support for leaving was linked
with "poor economic outcomes at the
individual or area level" and with "self-
reported opposition to immigration, but not
with exposure to immigration".[5]

Opinion polls found that Leave voters

believed leaving the EU was "more likely to
bring about a better immigration system,
improved border controls, a fairer welfare
system, better quality of life, and the ability
to control our own laws", while Remain
voters believed EU membership "would be
better for the economy, international
investment, and the UK's influence in the
world". Polls found that the main reasons
people voted Leave were "the principle that
decisions about the UK should be taken in
the UK", and that leaving "offered the best
chance for the UK to regain control over
immigration and its own borders". The
main reason people voted Remain was
that "the risks of voting to leave the EU
looked too great when it came to things
like the economy, jobs and prices".[130]

Resignations, contests, and appointments

After the result was declared, Cameron
announced that he would resign by
October.[131] He stood down on 13 July
2016, with Theresa May becoming Prime
Minister after a leadership contest. George
Osborne was replaced as Chancellor of
the Exchequer by Philip Hammond, former
Mayor of London Boris Johnson was
appointed Secretary of State for Foreign
and Commonwealth Affairs, and David
Davis became Secretary of State for
Exiting the European Union. Labour leader
Jeremy Corbyn lost a vote of confidence
among his parliamentary party, and an
unsuccessful challenge of his leadership
was launched. On 4 July, Nigel Farage
announced his resignation as leader of
UKIP.[132]

Irregularities

Irregularities have been alleged in the

conduct of the referendum campaign.

On 11 May 2018, the UK Electoral

Commission found against Leave.EU,
which ran a separate campaign to the
official pro-Brexit group Vote Leave,
following its investigations into alleged
irregularities during the referendum
campaign.[133][134] Leave.EU's co-founder
Arron Banks has stated that he rejects the
outcome of the investigation and will be
challenging it in court.[135]

In July 2018, the UK Electoral Commission

found Vote Leave to have broken electoral
law, spending over its limit.[136] Also, the
House of Commons Culture, Media and
Sport Select Committee released an
interim report on Disinformation and ‘fake
news’, stating that the largest donor in the
Brexit campaign, Arron Banks, had "failed
to satisfy" the Committee that his
donations came from UK sources, and
may have been financed by the Russian
government.[137][138]
Litigation

There has been litigation to explore the

constitutional footings on which Brexit
stands after R (Miller) v Secretary of State
for Exiting the European Union (the Miller
case) and the 2017 Notification Act:

In R. (Webster) v Secretary of State for

Exiting the European Union, the High
Court of Justice determined that the
decision to leave the EU was an
executive decision of the Prime Minister
using a statutory power of decision
found to have been delegated to her by
the Notification Act. This case was
criticised academically,[139] and it is also
subject to an appeal.[140]
The confirmation that the decision was
an executive act was part of the basis of
R. (Wilson) v. Prime Minister[141] the
impact irregularities in the referendum,
which is the basis for the executive
decision to leave, is being challenged,
with a hearing on 7 December 2018.[142]
Regarding the reversibility of a
notification under Article 50, Wightman
and others v Secretary of State for Exiting
the European Union was referred to
Court of Justice of the European
Union;[143] the UK government sought to
 block this referral, taking the matter on
appeal to the UK Supreme Court, but
was unsuccessful.[144] On 10 December
2018, the Court of Justice of the
European Union ruled that the UK could
unilaterally revoke its Article 50
notification.[145]

Timeline
Below is the timeline of major events
concerning Brexit.[146]

2016

23 June: The UK holds a referendum on

whether to leave the European Union.
51.9% of voters vote to leave.
24 June: David Cameron announces his
resignation as Prime Minister.
13 July: Theresa May accepts the Queen's
invitation to form a government. David
Davis is appointed the newly created
Secretary of State for Exiting the European
Union to oversee withdrawal negotiations.
27 July: The European Commission
nominates French politician Michel Barnier
as European Chief Negotiator for the
United Kingdom Exiting the European
Union.
7 December: The UK House of Commons
votes 461 to 89 in favour of Theresa May's
plan to trigger Article 50 by the end of
March 2017.[147]
2017

24 January: The UK Supreme Court rules in

the Miller case that Parliament must pass
legislation to authorise the triggering of
Article 50.
26 January: The UK Government
introduces a 137-word bill in Parliament to
empower Theresa May to initiate Brexit by
triggering Article 50. Labour leader Jeremy
Corbyn instructs his MPs to support it.
16 March: The bill receives Royal Assent.
29 March: A letter from Theresa May is
handed to President of the European
Council Donald Tusk to invoke Article 50,
starting a two-year process with the UK
due to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.
18 April: Theresa May announces that a
general election is to take place on 8 June.
8 June: A general election is held in the UK.
The Conservative Party remains the largest
single party in the House of Commons but
loses its majority, resulting in the
formation of a minority government with a
confidence-and-supply arrangement with
the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of
Northern Ireland.
19 June: Brexit negotiations commence.
2018
6 July: A UK White paper on The future
relationship between the United Kingdom
and the European Union is finalised.
8 July: Davis resigns as Secretary of State
for Exiting the European Union. Dominic
Raab is appointed as his successor the
following day.
9 July: Boris Johnson resigns as Foreign
Secretary.
21 September: EU reject the UK white
paper.
14 November: Brexit withdrawal
agreement published.
15 November: Raab resigns as Secretary
of State for Exiting the European Union.
Stephen Barclay is appointed as his
successor the following day.
25 November: Other 27 EU Member States
endorse the Withdrawal Agreement.
2019

15 January: First meaningful vote held on

the Withdrawal Agreement in the UK House
of Commons. The UK Government is
defeated by 432 votes to 202.[148]
12 March: Second meaningful vote on the
Withdrawal Agreement with the UK
Government defeated again by 391 votes
to 242.[149]
14 March: UK Government motion passes
412 to 202 to extend the Article 50 period.
20 March: Theresa May requests the EU
extend the Article 50 period until 30 June
2019.
21 March: The European Council offers to
extend the Article 50 period until 22 May
2019 if the Withdrawal Agreement is
passed by 29 March 2019 but, if it does
not, then the UK has until 12 April 2019 to
indicate a way forward. The extension is
formally agreed the following day.
29 March: The original end of the Article 50
period and the original planned date for
Brexit. Third vote on the Withdrawal
Agreement after being separated from the
Political Declaration. UK Government
defeated again by 344 votes to 286.
5 April: Theresa May requests for a
second time that the EU extend the Article
50 period until 30 June 2019.[150]
10 April: The European Council grants
another extension to the Article 50 period
to 31 October 2019, or the first day of the
month after that in which the Withdrawal
Agreement is passed, whichever comes
first. However, the UK must hold European
Parliament elections in May 2019 (it did);
otherwise it will leave on 1 June
2019.[151][152]
24 May: Theresa May announces that she
will resign as Conservative Party leader,
effective 7 June, due to being unable to
pass her Brexit plans through parliament
and several votes of no-confidence,[153]
continuing as prime minister while a
Conservative leadership contest takes
place.
18 July: MPs approve, with a majority of
41, an amendment that blocks suspension
of Parliament between 9 October and 18
December, unless a new Northern Ireland
Executive is formed.[154]
24 July: Boris Johnson accepted the
Queen's invitation to form a government
and became Prime Minister of the United
Kingdom, the third since the
referendum.[155]
25 July: Both Houses of Parliament went
into summer recess on 25 July until 3
September (Lords[156] and Commons.[157]).

Article 50 process

Letter from Theresa May invoking Article 50

Invocation

Withdrawal from the European Union is

governed by Article 50 of the Treaty on
European Union. Under the Article 50
invocation procedure, a member notifies
the European Council, whereupon the EU is
required to "negotiate and conclude an
agreement with [the leaving] State, setting
out the arrangements for its withdrawal,
taking account of the framework for its
future relationship with the [European]
Union". The negotiation period is limited to
two years unless extended, after which the
treaties cease to apply.[158] There was a
discussion on whether parallel negotiation
of withdrawal terms and future
relationships under Article 50 are
appropriate (Chancellor Merkel's initial
view) or whether Britain did not have the
right to negotiate future trade with the
EU27 as this power is arguably reserved to
the EU as long as the UK is a member (the
view of a European Commission
lawyer).[159]

Although the 2015 Referendum Act did not

expressly require Article 50 to be
invoked,[160] the UK government stated that
it would expect a leave vote to be followed
by withdrawal.[161][162] Following the
referendum result, Cameron resigned and
said that it would be for the incoming
Prime Minister to invoke Article 50.[163][164]

The Supreme Court ruled in the Miller case

in January 2017 that the government
needed parliamentary approval to trigger
Article 50.[165][166] Subsequently, the House
of Commons overwhelmingly voted, on 1
February 2017, for a government bill
authorising the prime minister to notify an
intention to leave under Article 50,[167] and
the bill passed into law as the European
Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Act
2017. Theresa May then signed a letter
invoking Article 50 on 28 March 2017,
which was delivered on 29 March by Tim
Barrow, the UK's ambassador to the EU, to
European Council President Donald
Tusk.[168][169][170]

It had been argued that the Article 50

withdrawal process could be halted
unilaterally by the British government,[171]
with which opinion the author of Article 50
itself, Lord Kerr, expressed agreement.[172]
The European Parliament's Brexit
committee said that unilateral revocation,
regardless of its legality, poses a
substantial moral hazard, with an EU
member state potentially able to abuse it
to blackmail the Union.[173]
The reversibility of notifications under
Article 50 was subject to litigation, which a
cross-party group of Scottish politicians
and the Good Law Project referred to the
Court of Justice of the European
Union.[174] The UK government sought to
block this referral, ultimately in the UK
Supreme Court, but it was unsuccessful in
this attempt.[175] On 10 December 2018,
the ECJ ruled that a country could
unilaterally cancel its withdrawal from the
EU, by simple notice, provided that it did so
prior to actual departure, unconditionally
and in good faith.[176] However the
Government's immediate response was
that it had no intention of exercising that
right.[176]

Wikisource has original text related to

this article:
The Withdrawal Clause

Both parties to the withdrawal negotiation

are bound by Article 50 (3) of the Treaty,
which states explicitly that the EU treaties
will cease to apply "from the date of entry
into force of the withdrawal agreement or,
failing that, two years after" the withdrawal
notification unless the EU Council and the
UK agree to extend the two-year
period.[177]
The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018
(as amended by a UK Statutory Instrument
on 11 April 2019), in section 20 (1), defines
'exit day' as 11:00 p.m. on 31 October
2019.[178] Originally, 'exit day' was defined
as 11:00 p.m. on 29 March 2019 GMT
(UTC+0).[179][180][177][181][182]

Withdrawal Agreement and Political

Declaration

Negotiations

First phase

The European Commission said that it

would not start any negotiation before the
UK formally invoked Article 50.[183] In
October 2016, European Commission
President Juncker said the EU should not
negotiate in such a way that Britain would
have to hold a second referendum.[184] On
28 June 2016, Chancellor of Germany
Angela Merkel, and on the following day
European Council President Tusk, stated
that the UK could remain in the European
Single Market (ESM) only if the UK
accepted its four freedoms of movement:
for goods, capital, services, and labour.[185]
In October, Prime Minister Theresa May
emphasised that ending the jurisdiction of
EU law and free movement from Europe
were the UK's priorities, along with British
and EU companies having maximum
freedom to trade in the UK and the
ESM.[186][187]

In November 2016, May proposed that

Britain and the other EU member states
mutually guarantee the residency rights of
the 3.3 million non-British EU citizens in the
UK and those of the 1.2 million British
citizens living in the rest of the European
Union, in order to exclude their fates being
bargained during Brexit negotiations.[188]
Despite initial approval from a majority of
EU states, May's proposal was blocked by
Council President Tusk alongside member
state Germany.[189]
In January 2017, the Prime Minister
presented 12 negotiating objectives and
confirmed that the UK government would
not seek permanent single market
membership.[190] She also called for an
end to European Court of Justice
jurisdiction, a new customs agreement
excluding the common external tariff and
the EU's common commercial policy, an
end to free movement of people, co-
operation in crime and terrorism,
collaboration in areas of science and
technology, engagement with devolved
administrations, maintaining the Common
Travel Area with Ireland, and preserving
existing workers' rights. She also
confirmed, "that the Government will put
the final deal that is agreed between the
UK and the EU to a meaningful vote in both
Houses of Parliament, before it comes into
force."[191] The European Parliament's lead
negotiator Guy Verhofstadt responded
that there could be no "cherry-picking" by
the UK in the talks.[192]

The statutory period for negotiation began

on 29 March 2017, when the UK formally
submitted a letter notifying withdrawal.
The letter called for a "deep and special
relationship" between the UK and the EU,
and warned that failure to reach an
agreement would result in EU-UK trade
under World Trade Organization terms, and
a weakening of the UK's co-operation in the
fight against crime and terrorism. The
letter suggested prioritising an early deal
on the rights of EU citizens in the UK and
vice versa, and stated that the UK would
not seek to remain within the ESM. Instead,
the UK would seek a free trade agreement
with the EU.[193] In response, Merkel
insisted that the EU would not discuss
future co-operation without first settling
the terms of leaving the EU; Verhofstadt
referred to the letter as "blackmail" with
regard to the point on security and
terrorism, and EU Commission president
Jean-Claude Juncker said the UK's
decision to no longer be a part of the
Union was a "choice they will regret one
day".[194]

The UK and EU negotiators agreed that

initial negotiations, relating especially to
residency rights, would commence in June
2017 (immediately after the French
presidential and parliamentary elections),
and full negotiations, relating especially to
trading agreements, could commence in
October 2017 (immediately after the 2017
German federal election).[195][196][197] The
first day of talks was 19 June.[196]
On 29 April 2017, immediately after the
first round of French presidential elections,
the remaining 27 member state heads of
government accepted negotiating
guidelines prepared by Tusk.[198] The
guidelines took the view that Article 50
permitted a two-phased negotiation, in
which the UK first agrees to a financial
commitment and to lifelong benefits for
EU citizens in Britain, and then negotiations
on a future relationship could begin.[199] In
the first phase, the member states would
demand the UK pay a "divorce bill", initially
estimated as amounting to £52bn[200] and
then, after additional financial demands
from Germany, France, and Poland, to
£92bn.[201] A report of the European Union
Committee of the British House of Lords,
published on 4 March 2017, stated that if
there were to be no post-Brexit deal at the
end of the negotiating period, the UK could
withdraw without payment.[202]

On 22 May 2017, the European Council

authorised its negotiators to start the
Brexit talks and it adopted its negotiating
directives.[203] The first day of talks took
place on 19 June, where Davis and Michel
Barnier, European Chief Negotiator for
Brexit, agreed to prioritise the question of
residency rights, while Davis conceded
that a discussion of the Northern Irish
border would have to await future trade
agreements.[204]

On 22 June 2017, Prime Minister May

guaranteed that no EU citizen living legally
in the UK would be forced to leave, and
offered that any EU citizen who lived in the
UK for more than five years until an
unspecified deadline between March 2017
and March 2019 would enjoy the same
rights as a UK citizen, conditional on the
EU providing the same offer to British
citizens living legally in the EU.[205] The
Prime Minister detailed her residency
proposals on 26 June, but drew no
concessions from EU negotiators,[206] who
had declined to expedite agreement on
expatriates by the end of June 2017,[207]
and who are hoping for European courts to
continue to have jurisdiction in the UK with
regards to EU citizens, according to their
negotiation aims published in May
2017.[208][209]

The second round of negotiations began in

mid-July 2017. Progress was made on the
Northern Irish border question; UK
negotiators requested a detailed
breakdown of the "divorce bill" demand;
and the EU negotiators criticised the UK's
citizenship rights offer.[210] David Davis did
not commit to a net payment by the UK to
the EU with regards to the requested
divorce bill, while Michel Barnier would not
compromise on his demand for the
European Court of Justice to have
continuing jurisdiction over the rights of EU
citizens living in the UK after Brexit,[211]
rejecting the compromise proposal of a
new international body made up of UK and
EU judges.[212]

On 16 August 2017, the UK government

disclosed the first of several papers
detailing British ambitions following Brexit,
discussing trade and customs
arrangements.[213] On 23 August Theresa
May announced that Britain would leave
the EU Court of Justice's direct jurisdiction
when the planned transition period ended,
but that both the British courts and the EU
Court of Justice would also keep "half an
eye" on each other's rulings afterwards as
well.[214] One of the UK government's
position papers published in August called
for no additional restrictions for goods
already on the market in the UK and
EU.[215]

The third round of negotiations began on

28 August 2017. There was disagreement
over the financial settlement; The Irish
Times explained that British negotiators
referred to the seven-year Multi-annual
Financial Framework (MFF or Maff) for the
period 2014–2020 agreed by member
states and the European parliament as a
"planning tool" for the next period rather
than a legally-binding financial obligation
on member states. The British case is that
the MFF sets ceilings on spending under
various headings and is later radically
revised during the annual budget process
when real legal obligations on each state
arises. This contrasts with the EU
Commission's methodology for calculating
the UK Brexit bill which involves dividing
the MFF into the shares historically agreed
by each member state.[216] On the Irish
border question there was a
"breakthrough", with the British side
guaranteeing free movement of EU citizens
within the Common travel area constituting
Ireland and the United Kingdom.[217]

On 5 September 2017, Davis said that

"concrete progress" had been made over
the summer in areas such as protecting
the rights of British expats in the EU to
access healthcare and over the future of
the Irish border, while significant
differences over the "divorce bill"
remained.[218] On 9 September, the EU
Commission published several negotiating
papers, including one in which the EU
concedes/declares that it is the
responsibility of the UK to propose
solutions for the post-Brexit Irish border.
The paper envisages that a "unique"
solution would be permissible here; in
other words, any such exceptional Irish
solution would not necessarily be a
template for post-Brexit relationships with
the other EU member states.[219]

On 22 September 2017, May announced

further details of her Brexit
proposal.[220][221] In addition to offering
20 billion euros over a two-year transition
period and continued acceptance of
European immigrants,[222] she also offered
a "bold new security relationship" with the
EU which would be "unprecedented in its
depth" and to continue to make "an
ongoing contribution" to projects
considered greatly to the EU and UK's
advantage, such as science and security
projects.[221][220] She also confirmed that
the UK would not "stand in the way" of
Juncker's proposals for further EU
integration.[221][220] Barnier welcomed
May's proposal as "constructive,"[223] but
that it also "must be translated into
negotiating positions to make meaningful
progress".[223] Similarly, President of
France Emmanuel Macron was adamant
that the EU would not begin negotiations
on future EU-UK relationships until "the
regulation of European citizens, the
financial terms of the exit, and the
questions of Ireland" were "clarified" by the
UK.[224]

The fourth round of talks began on 25

September, with Barnier declaring he had
no mandate from the EU27 to discuss a
transition deal suggested by Prime
Minister May. Davis reiterated that the UK
could honour commitments made during
its EU membership only in the context of a
future "special partnership" deal with the
EU.[225]
At the European Council meeting of 19/20
October 2017, the 27 leaders of the EU
states were to decide whether or not to
start trade negotiations with the UK.[215]
However, Davis has conceded that so
soon after the German elections on 24
September, a German coalition
government may not be in place in time for
making this decision in October, delaying
any European Council decision until their
December meeting.[226][227]

EU negotiators have stated that an

agreement must be reached between
Britain and the EU by October 2018 in order
to leave time for national parliaments to
endorse Brexit.[223]

On 9 October 2017, May announced to the

British Parliament that Britain could
operate as an "independent trading nation"
after Brexit if no trade deal is reached with
the EU.[228]

Second phase

In December 2017, EU leaders announced

an agreement to begin the next phase of
negotiations, with talks on a transition
period after March 2019 to begin in early
2018 and discussions on the future UK–EU
relationship, including trade and security,
to begin in March.[229]

On 10 June 2018, the Irish Prime Minister

Leo Varadkar cleared the path for the June
negotiations by postponing the Irish border
question until the final Brexit deal in
October 2018.[230]

On 19 June 2018, the UK and the EU

published a joint statement outlining
agreements at the negotiators' level.
Michel Barnier praised the "dedication and
commitment" of the negotiating teams,
and said progress had been made in
issues like customs, VAT and the European
nuclear agreement, Euratom.[231][232]

On 12 July 2018, Prime Minister May and

part of the cabinet published a proposal
for an agreement on future relations
between the UK and EU. Its nickname
came to be known by various British media
outlets as the Chequers plan. It was
finalised at a meeting of the UK Cabinet
held at Chequers on 6 July. Brexit
Secretary David Davis resigned over the
agreement on 8 July,[233] while Foreign
Secretary Boris Johnson followed him the
next day,[234] saying that the government
allowed "a fog of self-doubt" to fall on its
negotiations.[235]

Signature

On 14 November 2018, a lengthy meeting

of the Cabinet approved a Draft
Withdrawal Agreement.[236][237] The
following day, Brexit Secretary Dominic
Raab, his Cabinet colleague Esther McVey
and several junior ministers resigned their
posts because of their disagreement with
the contents of the document.[238]

On 19 December 2018, the EU Commission

announced its "no-deal" Contingency
Action Plan in specific sectors, in respect
of the UK leaving the European Union "in
100 days' time."[239]

In the wake of the United Kingdom's vote

to leave the European Union, the
Department for International Trade (DIT)
for striking and extending trade
agreements between the UK and non-EU
states was created by Prime Minister
Theresa May, shortly after she took office
on 13 July 2016.[240] By 2017, it employed
about 200 trade negotiators[241] and was
overseen by the Secretary of State for
International Trade, currently Liam Fox. In
March 2019, the UK government
announced that it would cut many import
tariffs to zero, in the event of a no-deal
Brexit.[242] The Confederation of British
Industry said the move would be a
"sledgehammer for our
economy",[243][244][245] and the National
Farmer's Union was also highly critical.[246]
Additionally, the plan appears to breach
standard WTO
rules.[247][243][248][249][250][251]

Ratification

UK Government's legal advice

Following an unprecedented vote on 4

December 2018, MPs ruled that the UK
government was in contempt of parliament
for refusing to provide to Parliament, the
full legal advice it had been given on the
effect of its proposed terms for
withdrawal.[252] The key point within the
advice covered the legal effect of the
"backstop" agreement governing Northern
Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and the rest
of the UK, in regard to the customs border
between the EU and UK, and its
implications for the Good Friday
agreement which had led to the end of the
Troubles in Northern Ireland, and
specifically, whether the UK would be
certain of being able to leave the EU in a
practical sense, under the draft proposals.
The following day, the advice was
published. The question asked was, "What
is the legal effect of the UK agreeing to the
Protocol to the Withdrawal Agreement on
Ireland and Northern Ireland in particular its
effect in conjunction with Articles 5 and 184
of the main Withdrawal Agreement?" The
advice given was that:[252]

The Protocol is binding on the UK and

EU [para 3], and anticipates a final future
resolution of the border and customs
issues being reached [para 5,12,13]. But
"the Protocol is intended to subsist even
when negotiations have clearly broken
down" [para 16] and "In conclusion, the
 current drafting of the Protocol ... does
not provide for a mechanism that is
likely to enable the UK lawfully to exit the
UK wide customs union without a
subsequent agreement. This remains
the case even if parties are still
negotiating many years later, and even if
the parties believe that talks have clearly
broken down and there is no prospect of
a future relationship agreement." [para
30]
Delay of vote on Withdrawal Agreement

On 10 December 2018, the Prime Minister

postponed the vote in the House of
Commons on her Brexit deal. The
announcement came minutes after the
Prime Minister's Office confirmed the vote
would be going ahead.[253] Faced with the
prospect of a defeat in the House of
Commons, this option gave May more time
to negotiate with Conservative
backbenchers and the EU, even though
they had ruled out further discussions.[254]
The decision was met with calls from
many Welsh Labour MPs for a motion of
no confidence in the Government.[255] The
Leader of the Opposition, Jeremy Corbyn,
described the government as being in
"disarray".
The European Research Group, the
segment of the Conservative Party that
favours a "hard" Brexit, opposed the Prime
Minister's proposed Withdrawal
Agreement treaty. Its members objected
strongly to the Withdrawal Agreement's
inclusion of the Irish backstop.[256][257] ERG
members also objected to the proposed
£39 billion financial settlement with the
European Union and stated that the
agreement would result in the UK's
agreement to continuing to follow EU
regulations in major policy areas; and to
the continuing jurisdiction of the European
Court of Justice over interpretation of the
agreement and of European law still
applicable to the UK.[258][259]

Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK ambassador to the

EU at the time of the 2016 referendum,
publicly commented on 13 December 2018
that the EU was always adroit at reframing
things that have already been agreed, such
as the Irish backstop, in ways that "make
the medicine slip down".[260]

Vote on Withdrawal Agreement

On 15 January 2019, the House of

Commons voted 432 to 202 against the
deal, which was the largest majority
against a United Kingdom government
ever.[261][262][263] Soon after, a motion of no
confidence in Her Majesty's Government
was tabled by the opposition,[264] which
was rejected by 325 votes to 306.[265]

Second vote on Withdrawal Agreement

On 24 February, Theresa May announced

that the next vote on the withdrawal
agreement would be on 12 March 2019, 17
days away from Brexit.[266] The deal was
voted against 391 to 242, a loss of 149
votes down from 230 from when the deal
was proposed in January.[267]

Extensions
First

On 20 March 2019, the Prime Minister

Theresa May wrote to European Council
President Donald Tusk requesting that
Brexit be postponed until 30 June
2019.[268] On 21 March 2019, May
presented her case to a European Council
summit meeting in Brussels. After May left
the meeting, a discussion amongst the
remaining EU leaders resulted in the
rejection of 30 June date and offered
instead a choice of two new alternative
Brexit dates. On 22 March 2019, the
extension options were agreed between
the UK government and the European
Council.[178] The first alternative offered
was that if MPs rejected May's deal in the
next week, Brexit would be due to occur by
12 April 2019, with, or without, a deal—or
alternatively another extension be asked
for and a commitment to participate in the
2019 European Parliament elections given.
The second alternative offered was that if
MPs approved May's deal, Brexit would be
due to occur on 22 May 2019. The later
date was the day before the start of
European Parliament elections.[269] After
the government deemed unwarranted the
concerns over the legality of the proposed
change (due to its containing two possible
exit dates) the previous day,[270][271] on 27
March 2019 both the Lords (without a
vote)[272] and the Commons (by 441 to
105) approved the statutory instrument
changing the exit date to 22 May 2019 if a
withdrawal deal is approved, or 12 April
2019 if it is not.[273] The amendment was
then signed into law at 12:40 p.m. the next
day.[178]

Third vote on Withdrawal Agreement

On 18 March 2019, the Speaker informed

the House of Commons that a third
meaningful vote could only be held on a
motion that was significantly different
from the previous one, citing parliamentary
precedents going back to 1604.[274]

The Withdrawal Agreement was brought

back to the House without the attached
understandings on 29 March.[275] The
Government's motion of support for the
Withdrawal Agreement was lost by 344
votes to 286, a loss of 58 votes down from
149 from when the deal was proposed on
12 March.[276]

Second

Following the failure of UK Parliament to

approve the Withdrawal Agreement by 29
March, the UK was now legally due to
leave the EU on 12 April 2019. On 10 April
2019, late-night talks in Brussels resulted
in another extension to 31 October 2019;
Theresa May had again only requested an
extension until 30 June. Under the terms of
this new extension, if the Withdrawal
Agreement is passed before October,
Brexit would occur on the first day of the
subsequent month. However, the UK would
now be obligated to hold European
Parliament elections in May, or leave the
EU on 1 June without a deal.[151][152]

Other post-referendum
political developments
Domestic legislation after Article 50
notification

European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018

In October 2016, Theresa May promised a

"Great Repeal Bill", which would repeal the
European Communities Act 1972 and
restate in UK law all enactments previously
in force under EU law. Subsequently
renamed the European Union (Withdrawal)
bill, it was introduced to the House of
Commons on 13 July 2017.[277]

On 12 September 2017, the bill passed its

first vote and second reading by a margin
of 326 votes to 290 votes in the House of
Commons.[278] The bill was further
amended on a series of votes in both
Houses of Parliament. After the Act
became law on 26 June 2018, the
European Council decided on 29 June to
renew its call on Member States and Union
institutions to step up their work on
preparedness at all levels and for all
outcomes.[279]

The Withdrawal Act fixed the period ending

21 January 2019 for the government to
decide on how to proceed if the
negotiations have not reached agreement
in principle on both the withdrawal
arrangements and the framework for the
future relationship between the UK and EU;
while, alternatively, making future
ratification of the withdrawal agreement as
a treaty between the UK and EU depend
upon the prior enactment of another act of
Parliament for approving the final terms of
withdrawal when the current Brexit
negotiations are completed. In any event,
the act does not alter the two-year period
for negotiating allowed by Article 50 that
ends at the latest on 29 March 2019 if the
UK has not by then ratified a withdrawal
agreement or agreed a prolongation of the
negotiating period.[179]
The Withdrawal Act which became law in
June 2018 allows for various outcomes
including no negotiated settlement. It
authorises the government to bring into
force, by order made under section 25, the
provisions that fix "exit day" and the repeal
of the European Communities Act 1972,
but exit day must be the same day and
time as when the EU Treaties are to cease
to apply to the UK.[280]

Additional government bills

A report published in March 2017 by the

Institute for Government commented that,
in addition to the European Union
(Withdrawal) bill, primary and secondary
legislation will be needed to cover the
gaps in policy areas such as customs,
immigration and agriculture.[281] The report
also commented that the role of the
devolved legislatures was unclear, and
could cause problems, and as many as 15
new additional Brexit Bills may be required,
which would involve strict prioritisation
and limiting Parliamentary time for in-
depth examination of new legislation.[282]

In 2016 and 2017, the House of Lords

published a series of reports on Brexit-
related subjects, including:
 Brexit: the options for trade
Brexit: UK-Irish relations
Brexit: future UK-EU security and police
cooperation

Brexit: fisheries
Brexit: environment and climate change
Brexit: the Crown Dependencies

Brexit: justice for families, individuals

and businesses?
Brexit: trade in non-financial services

Euratom
The Nuclear Safeguards Bill 2017–19,
relating to withdrawal from Euratom, was
presented to Parliament in October 2017
and began its Report Stage in January
2018.[283]

Voting on the final outcome

Replying to questions at a parliamentary

committee about Parliament's involvement
in voting on the outcome of the
negotiations with the EU, the Prime
Minister said that "delivering on the vote of
the British people to leave the European
Union" was her priority. The shadow Brexit
secretary, Keir Starmer, commented that
the government did not want a vote at the
beginning of the process, to trigger Article
50, nor a vote at the end.[284]

2017 British general election

A general election was held on 8 June

2017, announced at short notice by the
new Prime Minister Theresa May. The
Conservative Party, Labour and UKIP made
manifesto pledges to implement the
referendum, although the Labour
manifesto differed in its approach to Brexit
negotiations, such as unilaterally offering
permanent residence to EU
immigrants.[285][286][287][288] The Liberal
Democrat Party and the Green Party
manifestos proposed a policy of remaining
in the EU via a second
referendum.[289][290][291] The Scottish
National Party manifesto proposed a
policy of waiting for the outcome of the
Brexit negotiations and then holding a
referendum on Scottish
independence.[292][293] Compared to the
2015 general election, the Conservatives
gained votes (but nevertheless lost seats
and their majority in the House of
Commons). Labour gained significantly on
votes and seats, retaining its position as
the second-largest party. The Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP) and Sinn Féin also
made gains in votes and seats. Parties
losing votes included the SNP, Liberal
Democrats, Greens, and especially
UKIP.[294]

On 26 June 2017, Conservatives and the

DUP reached a confidence and supply
agreement whereby the DUP would back
the Conservatives in key votes in the
House of Commons over the course of the
parliament. The agreement included
additional funding of £1 billion for
Northern Ireland, highlighted mutual
support for Brexit and national security,
expressed commitment to the Good Friday
Agreement, and indicated that policies
such as the state pension triple lock and
Winter Fuel Payments would be
maintained.[295]

Public opinion

Opinion polling tended to show a plurality

of support for Brexit after the referendum
and until the 2017 General Election. Since
then, opinion polls have tended to show a
plurality of support for remaining in the EU
or for the view that Brexit was a mistake.
This seems to be largely due to a
preference for remaining in the EU among
those who did not vote in 2016's
referendum (an estimated 2 million of
whom, as of March 2019, were too young
to vote at the time[296]).[297] In March 2019,
a petition submitted to the UK Parliament
petitions website, calling on the
government to revoke Article 50 and stay
in the European Union, reached a record-
level of six million signatures.[298][299]

Post-referendum opinion polling

  

Opinion polling on whether the UK was

right or wrong to vote to leave the EU

Opinion polling on whether the UK should

leave or remain in the EU, including
"Neither" responses
  

Opinion polling on whether the UK should

leave or remain in the EU, excluding
"Neither" responses and normalised

Impacts
Whether the UK leaves with a withdrawal
agreement or alternatively without any
withdrawal agreement ("no-deal" Brexit)
will affect future impacts, particularly in
connection with the location of EU
agencies and the regulation and control of
cross-border outward and inward
movements of persons and animals, of
goods for export and import, and of
financial and other transactions.[65]

Academia

According to a 2016 study by Ken Mayhew,

Emeritus Professor of Education and
Economic Performance at Oxford
University, Brexit posed the following
threats to higher education: "loss of
research funding from EU sources; loss of
students from other EU member states;
the impact on the ability of the sector to
hire academic staff from EU member
states; and the impact on the ability of UK
students to study abroad."[300] The UK
received more from the European agencies
and institutions for research than it
financially contributed[301][302] with
universities getting just over 10% of their
research income from the European
agencies and institutions.[303] All funding
for net beneficiaries from European
agencies and institutions, including
universities, was guaranteed by the British
government in August 2016.[304] Before the
funding announcement, a newspaper
investigation reported that some research
projects were reluctant to include British
researchers due to uncertainties over
funding.[305] Currently the UK is part of the
European Research Area and the UK is
likely to wish to remain an associated
member.[306]

Border between the UK and Republic

of Ireland

The UK/Republic of Ireland border crosses this road at

Killeen (near Newry), marked only by a speed limit in
km/h. (Northern Ireland uses mph.)
There is concern about whether the border
between the Republic of Ireland and
Northern Ireland becomes a "hard border"
with customs and passport checks on the
border,[307] and whether this could affect
the Good Friday Agreement that brought
peace to Northern Ireland.[308][309][310] In
order to forestall this the European Union
proposed a "backstop agreement" within
the Withdrawal Agreement that would put
Northern Ireland under a range of EU rules
in order to forestall the need for border
checks. Although the UK government has
signed off on proposals including the
backstop, it regards the idea of having EU
rules applying in Northern Ireland only as a
threat to the integrity of the UK, and also
does not want the UK as a whole to be
subject to EU rules and the customs union
indefinitely.[311]

Until October 2019, both the UK and Ireland

will be members of the EU, and therefore
both are in the Customs Union and the
Single Market. There is freedom of
movement for all EU nationals within the
Common Travel Area and there are no
customs or fixed immigration controls at
the border. Since 2005, the border has
been essentially invisible.[312] Following
Brexit, the border between Northern Ireland
and the Republic of Ireland will become a
land border between the EU and a non-EU
state which may entail checks on goods at
the border or at Irish ports, depending on
the co-operation and alignment of
regulations between the two sides. It is
therefore possible that the border will
return to being a "hard" one, with fewer,
controlled, crossing posts and a customs
infrastructure. Both the EU and the UK have
agreed this should be avoided.[313] A
February 2019 report by Irish Senator Mark
Daly and two UNESCO chairmen indicated
that reinstating a hard border would result
in the return of violence.[314]
In March 2019, the UK government
announced that it would not perform
customs checks at the Irish border after a
no-deal Brexit and acknowledged that that
might present a smuggling risk.[247][315][316]
On 17 March the President of Ireland
signed into law the Withdrawal of the
United Kingdom from the European Union
(Consequential Provisions) Act 2019.[317]

Border with France

The President of the Regional Council of

Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand, stated in
February 2016 that "If Britain leaves
Europe, right away the border will leave
Calais and go to Dover. We will not
continue to guard the border for Britain if
it's no longer in the European Union,"
indicating that the juxtaposed controls
would end with a leave vote. French
Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron also
suggested the agreement would be
"threatened" by a leave vote.[318] These
claims have been disputed, as the Le
Touquet 2003 treaty enabling juxtaposed
controls was not an EU treaty, and would
not be legally void upon leaving.[319]

After the Brexit vote, Xavier Bertrand asked

François Hollande to renegotiate the Le
Touquet agreement,[320] which can be
terminated by either party with two years'
notice.[321] Hollande rejected the
suggestion, and Bernard Cazeneuve, the
French Interior Minister, confirmed there
would be "no changes to the accord."[322]

Economic effects

Economists expect that Brexit will have

damaging immediate and longer term
effects on the economies of the UK and at
least part of the 27 other EU member
states. In particular, there is a broad
consensus among economists and in the
economic literature that Brexit will likely
reduce the UK's real per capita income in
the medium and long term, and that the
Brexit referendum itself damaged the
economy.[b][323] Studies on effects since
the referendum show a reduction in GDP,
trade and investment, as well as
household losses from increased inflation.

Immediate

According to one study, the referendum

result had pushed up UK inflation by 1.7
percentage points in 2017, leading to an
annual cost of £404 for the average British
household.[324] Studies published in 2018,
estimated that the economic costs of the
Brexit vote were 2.1% of GDP,[325][326] or
2.5% of GDP.[327] According to a December
2017 Financial Times analysis, the Brexit
referendum results had reduced national
British income by between 0.6% and
1.3%.[328] A 2018 analysis by Stanford
University and Nottingham University
economists estimated that uncertainty
around Brexit reduced investment by
businesses by approximately 6 percentage
points and caused an employment
reduction by 1.5 percentage points.[329] A
number of studies found that Brexit-
induced uncertainty about the UK's future
trade policy reduced British international
trade from June 2016
onwards.[330][331][332][333][334] A 2019
analysis found that British firms
substantially increased offshoring to the
European Union after the Brexit
referendum, whereas European firms
reduced new investments in the
UK.[335][336]

In the long term

There is overwhelming or near-unanimous

agreement among economists that leaving
the European Union will adversely affect
the British economy in the medium- and
long-term.[c][323] Surveys of economists in
2016 showed overwhelming agreement
that Brexit would likely reduce the UK's real
per-capita income level.[7][8][9] 2019 and
2017 surveys of existing academic
research found that the credible estimates
ranged between GDP losses of 1.2–4.5%
for the UK,[323] and a cost of between 1–
10% of the UK's income per capita.[5]
These estimates differ depending on
whether the UK exits the EU with a hard
Brexit or soft Brexit.[5] In January 2018, the
UK government's own Brexit analysis was
leaked; it showed that UK economic
growth would be stunted by 2–8% in total
over the 15 years following Brexit, the
amount depending on the leave
scenario.[337][338]
According to most economists, EU
membership has a strong positive effect
on trade and as a result the UK's trade
would be worse off if it left the
EU.[339][340][341][342] According to a study by
University of Cambridge economists, under
a "hard Brexit" whereby the UK reverts to
WTO rules, one-third of UK exports to the
EU would be tariff-free, one-quarter would
face high trade barriers and other exports
risk tariffs in the range of 1–10%.[343] A
2017 study found that "almost all UK
regions are systematically more vulnerable
to Brexit than regions in any other
country."[344] A 2017 study examining the
economic impact of Brexit-induced
reductions in migration" found that there
would likely be "a significant negative
impact on UK GDP per capita (and GDP),
with marginal positive impacts on wages in
the low-skill service sector."[345][5] It is
unclear how changes in trade and foreign
investment will interact with immigration,
but these changes are likely to be
important.[5]

With Brexit, the EU would lose its second-

largest economy, the country with the
third-largest population and "the financial
capital of the world", as the German
newspaper Münchner Merkur put it.[346]
Furthermore, the EU would lose its second-
largest net contributor to the EU budget
(2015: Germany €14.3 billion, United
Kingdom €11.5 billion, France
€5.5 billion).[347] Thus, the departure of
Britain would result in an additional
financial burden for the remaining net
contributors, unless the budget is reduced
accordingly: Germany, for example, would
have to pay an additional €4.5 billion for
2019 and again for 2020; in addition, the
UK would no longer be a shareholder in the
European Investment Bank, in which only
EU members can participate. Britain's
share amounts to 16%, €39.2 billion
(2013), which Britain would withdraw
unless there is an EU treaty change.[348]
All the remaining EU members (as well as
Switzerland, Norway and Iceland) will also
likely experience adverse effects (albeit
smaller effects than the UK), in particular
Ireland, the Netherlands and
Belgium.[349][350][351]

In the short term

Short-term macroeconomic forecasts by

the Bank of England and other banks of
what would happen immediately after the
Brexit referendum were too
pessimistic.[11][352] The assessments
assumed that the referendum results
would create greater uncertainty in
markets and reduce consumer confidence
more than it did.[352] A number of
economists noted that short-term
macroeconomic forecasts are generally
considered unreliable and that they are
something that academic economists do
not do, unlike banks.[353][354][352][5][11]
Economists have compared short-term
economic forecasts to weather forecasts
whereas the long-term economic
forecasts are akin to climate forecasts:
the methodologies used in long-term
forecasts are "well-established and
robust".[352][353][5][355]

Regional inequality in UK
Studies on the economic impact that
different forms of Brexit will have on
different parts of the country indicate that
Brexit will exacerbate regional economic
inequality in the UK, as already struggling
regions will be hardest hit by Brexit.[356]

UK financial sector

Economists have warned that London's

future as an international financial centre
depends on whether the UK will obtain
passporting rights for British banks from
the European Union. If banks located in the
UK cannot obtain passporting rights, they
have strong incentives to relocate to
financial centres within the EU.[357][358]
According to John Armour, Professor of
Law and Finance at Oxford University, "a
'soft' Brexit, whereby the UK leaves the EU
but remains in the single market, would be
a lower-risk option for the British financial
industry than other Brexit options, because
it would enable financial services firms to
continue to rely on regulatory passporting
rights."[358]

Energy

According to a 2017 study by the

University of Exeter and Chatham House
researchers, there are considerable
benefits for the UK to be integrated into the
European energy market. The study notes,
"if the UK wants to enjoy the economic
benefits of remaining part of what is an
increasingly integrated European electricity
market then, as European legislation is
currently drafted, it will not only have to
forgo an element of autonomy through
accepting legislation and regulations
made collectively at the EU level, but it will
also lose much of its voice in that decision
making process, effectively becoming a
rule-taker rather than a rule-maker."[359]

European Union institutions

Council of the European Union

Analyses indicate that the departure of the

relatively economically liberal UK will
reduce the ability of remaining
economically liberal countries to block
measures in the Council of the European
Union.[360][361] According to the Lisbon
Treaty (2009), decisions of the Council are
made by qualified majority voting, which
means that a majority view can be blocked
should at least four members of the
Council, representing at least 35% of the
population of the Union, choose to do so.
In many policy votes, Britain, allied with
other northern EU allies (Germany, Ireland,
the Netherlands, the Scandinavian and the
Baltic states), had a blocking minority of
35%.[362][363]

European Parliament

UK MEPs are expected to retain full rights

to participate in the European Parliament
up to the Article 50 deadline. However,
there have been discussions about
excluding UK MEPs from key committee
positions.[364]

The EU will need to decide on the revised

apportionment of seats in the European
Parliament in time for the next European
Parliament election to be held in May 2019
(with the parliamentary term starting in
June), when the United Kingdom's 73 MEPs
will have vacated their seats. In April 2017,
a group of European lawmakers discussed
what should be done about the vacated
seats. One plan, supported by Gianni
Pittella and Emmanuel Macron, is to
replace the 73 seats with a pan-European
constituency list; other options which were
considered include dropping the British
seats without replacement, and
reassigning some or all of the existing
seats from other countries to reduce
inequality of representation.[365][366]
Fisheries

The combined EU fishing fleets land about

6 million tonnes of fish per year,[367] of
which about 3 million tonnes are from UK
waters.[368] The UK's share of the overall
EU fishing catch is only 750,000 tonnes
(830,000 tons).[369] This proportion is
determined by the London Fisheries
Convention of 1964 and by the EU's
Common Fisheries Policy. The UK
government announced in July 2017 that it
would end the 1964 convention in 2019.
Loss of access to UK waters will
particularly affect the Irish fishing industry
which obtains a third of its catch there.[370]
According to an analysis by researchers at
Wageningen University and Research,
Brexit would lead to higher prices in
seafood for consumers (because the UK
imports most of its seafood). British
fishermen would be able to catch more
fish, but the price for UK fish would
decline. As a result, the analysis found that
Brexit would result in a "lose-lose situation"
for both the UK and the EU, and for both
British consumers and the fishing
industry.[371] According to a 2018 study,
"Brexit poses a major challenge to the
stability of European fisheries
management. Until now, neighbouring EU
Member States have shared the bounty of
the living resources of the seas around
Britain. Taking full responsibility for the
regulation of fisheries within the UK's
Exclusive Economic Zone will cut across
longstanding relationships, potentially
putting at risk recent recovery and future
sustainability of shared fish stocks."[372]

Gibraltar and Spain

Cars crossing into Gibraltar clearing customs

formalities. Gibraltar is outside the customs union, VAT
area and Schengen Zone.
Gibraltar is outside the European Union's
common customs area and common
commercial policy and so has a customs
border with Spain. Nevertheless, the
territory remains within the European Union
until Brexit is complete.

During the Brexit referendum campaign, the

Chief Minister of Gibraltar warned that
Brexit posed a threat to Gibraltar's
safety.[373] Gibraltar voted overwhelmingly
(96 per cent) to remain in the EU. After the
result, Spain's Foreign Minister renewed
calls for joint Spanish–British control of
the peninsula.[374] These calls were
strongly rebuffed by Gibraltar's Chief
Minister[375] and questions were raised
over the future of free-flowing traffic at the
Gibraltar–Spain border.[376] The UK
government states it will only negotiate on
the sovereignty of Gibraltar with the
consent of its people.[377]

In February 2018, Sir Joe Bossano,

Gibraltar's Minister for Enterprise, Training,
Employment and Health and Safety (and
former Chief Minister) expressed
frustration at the EU's attitude, suggesting
that Spain was being offered a veto,
adding "It's enough to convert me from a
supporter of the European Union into a
Brexiteer".[378]

In April 2018, Spanish Foreign Minister

Alfonso Dastis said that the Spanish had a
long-term aim of "recovering" Gibraltar, but
that Spain would not hold Gibraltar as a
"hostage" to the EU negotiations.[379] In
2018, a new Spanish government stated
that its policy on the issue remained
unchanged.[380]

Health

A 2019 study in the Lancet suggested that

Brexit would have an adverse impact on
health in the UK under every Brexit
scenario, but that a no-deal Brexit would
have the worst impact.[381] The study
found that Brexit would deplete the
National Health Service (NHS) workforce,
create uncertainties regarding care for
British nationals living in the EU, and put at
risk access to vaccines, equipment, and
medicines.[381]

Legal system

The UK's exit from the European Union will

leave Ireland and Cyprus as the only two
remaining common law jurisdictions in the
EU. Paul Gallagher, a former Attorney
General of Ireland, has suggested this will
isolate those countries and deprive them
of a powerful partner that shared a
common interest in ensuring that EU
legislation was not drafted or interpreted
in a way that would be contrary to the
principles of the common law.[382] Lucinda
Creighton, a former Irish government
minister for legal affairs, has said that
Ireland relies on the "bureaucratic capacity
of the UK" to understand, influence and
implement EU legislation.[383]

Migration
Studies estimating the long-term impact of
Brexit on immigration note that many
factors affect future migration flows but
that Brexit and the end of free movement
will likely result in a large decline in
immigration from EEA countries to the
UK.[384][385] The Migration Policy Institute
estimated immediately after the
referendum that the UK "would continue to
receive 500,000 or more immigrants (from
EU and non-EU countries taken together)
per year, with annual net migration around
200,000".[386] The decline in EEA
immigration is likely to have an adverse
impact on the British health sector.[387]
According to the New York Times, Brexit
"seems certain" to make it harder and
costlier for the NHS, which already suffers
from chronic understaffing, to recruit
nurses, midwives and doctors from the
rest of Europe.[387]

Official figures for June 2017 (published in

February 2018) showed that net non-
British EU immigration to the UK slowed to
about 100,000 immigrants per year
(corresponding to the immigration level of
2014) while immigration from outside the
European Union increased. Taken together,
the two inflows into the UK resulted in an
only slightly reduced net immigration of
230,000 newcomers in the year to June
2017. The Head of the Office of National
Statistics suggested that Brexit could well
be a factor for the slowdown in EU
immigration, but cautioned there might be
other reasons.[388] The number of non-
British EU nurses registering with the NHS
fell from 1,304 in July 2016 to 46 in April
2017.[389]

Since the referendum, British citizens have

attempted to ensure their retention of EU
citizenship via a number of different
mechanisms, including applying to other
EU member states for citizenship,[390][391]
and petitioning the European
Commission.[392]
Currently, EEA sportspersons face minimal
bureaucracy to play or perform in the UK.
After Brexit, any foreigner wanting to do so
more than temporarily could need a work
permit. Such work permits can be tricky to
obtain, especially for young or lower
ranked players. Conversely, British
nationals playing in EEA states may
encounter similar obstacles where none
exist today.[393][394]

Moving agencies

Brexit requires the offices and staff of the

European Medicines Agency and European
Banking Authority, currently based in
London, to move out of the UK.[395] The
agencies, which together employ more
than 1,000 people, twwill respectively
move to Amsterdam and Paris.[396] The EU
is also considering restricting the clearing
of euro-denominated trades to eurozone
jurisdictions, which would end London's
dominance in this sector.[397]

Transport

Aviation

Flights between the UK and the 27 EU

countries are enshrined into the European
Common Aviation Area. The UK
Government's aviation guidance document
states that post-Brexit: "UK and EU
licensed airlines would lose the automatic
right to operate air services between the
UK and the EU without seeking advance
permission. This would mean that airlines
operating between the UK and the EU
would need to seek individual permissions
to operate."[398] The loss of automatic
access to the European Common Aviation
Area will affect airlines; for instance a
British registered airline cannot operate
intra-EU flights, nor can a European
registered airline operate domestic UK
flights. Some British airlines created
European divisions to resolve the issue.
The European Aviation Safety Agency will
no longer cover UK airlines.[399] In the event
of a No Deal Brexit, UK aviation would be
seriously impaired, with higher fares and
less options for British flyers.[400]

The UK has sought to replace the existing

ECAA partnerships that the EU has with 17
non-EU countries. By the end of 2018, the
UK had concluded individual air service
agreements (ASA) with the United
States,[401] Canada[401] Switzerland,[402]
Albania, Georgia, Iceland, Israel, Kosovo,
Montenegro and Morocco. Flights to and
from these countries will continue as
scheduled post-Brexit.[398]
The UK has separate bilateral air service
agreements (ASA) with 111 countries,
which permit flights to and from the
country. As a result, there will be no
change post-Brexit for airlines operating in
these countries.[398]

Rail

The French minister for European Affairs,

Nathalie Loiseau, said in September 2018
that trains in the Channel Tunnel may no
longer be allowed into France in the event
of a no-deal Brexit.[403] Discussions were
carried out in October between the British
Department for Transport and the rail
transport authorities of France, Belgium
and the Netherlands.[404] A temporary
authorisation for three months was agreed
in February 2019, ensuring transport
continuity in the event of a no-deal
Brexit.[405]

Road traffic

The Vienna Convention on Road Traffic is

written by the UN, not the EU, allowing road
traffic between the UK and EU even without
a deal.

The UK will remain in the European

Common Transit Convention (CTC) after
Brexit.[406] This would apply to any new
trading relationship with the EU, including
after exit with no Withdrawal Agreement
treaty.[407] The CTC applies to moving
goods between the EU member states, the
EFTA countries (Iceland, Norway,
Liechtenstein and Switzerland) as well as
Turkey, Macedonia and Serbia. The CTC,
with its supplementary Convention on the
Simplification of Formalities in the Trade
of Goods, reduces administrative burdens
on traders by removing the need for
additional import/export declarations
when transiting customs territories, and
provides cash flow benefits by allowing the
movement of goods across a customs
territory without the payment of duties until
the final destination.[408]

In the event of a "no-deal" Brexit, the

number of permits available to haulage
drivers will be "severely limited": the
Department for Transport proposes to
allocate these by lottery.[409] Even with a
customs union, the experience of Turkish
hauliers suggests that significant
difficulties and delays will occur both at
the border and within some countries.[410]

Shipping

Ferries will continue, but with obstacles

such as customs checks.[411] New ferry
departures between the Republic of Ireland
and the European mainland have been
established in anticipation of the Great
Britain land bridge becoming congested,
mainly with France, Spain, Belgium and the
Netherlands.[411]

Scotland

First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon addresses

journalists over Brexit and Scotland's place within
Europe at Bute House.
As suggested by the Scottish Government
before the referendum,[412] the First
Minister of Scotland announced that
officials were planning an independence
referendum due to the result of Scotland
voting to remain in the European Union
when England and Wales voted to
leave.[413] In March 2017, the SNP leader
and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
requested a second Scottish
independence referendum in 2018 or 2019
(before Britain's formal exit from the
EU).[414] The UK Prime Minister
immediately rejected the requested timing,
but not the referendum itself.[415] The
referendum was approved by the Scottish
Parliament on 28 March 2017. Sturgeon
called for a "phased return" of an
independent Scotland back to the EU.[416]

After the referendum, First Minister

Sturgeon suggested that Scotland might
refuse consent for legislation required to
leave the EU,[417] though some lawyers
argued that Scotland cannot block
Brexit.[418]

On 21 March 2018, the Scottish Parliament

passed the Scottish Continuity Bill.[419]
This was passed due to stalling
negotiations between the Scottish
Government and the British Government on
where powers within devolved policy areas
should lie after exit day from the European
Union. This Act allows for all devolved
policy areas to remain within the remit of
the Scottish Parliament and reduces the
executive power upon exit day that the UK
Withdrawal Bill provides for Ministers of
the Crown.[420] The bill was referred to the
supreme court which found that it could
not come into force as the European Union
(Withdrawal) Act 2018, which received
royal assent between the Scottish
parliament passing its bill and the supreme
court's judgement, designated itself under
schedule 4 of the Scotland Act 1998 as
unamendable by the Scottish
Parliament.[421] The bill has therefore not
received royal assent.[422]

Security

Concerns have been raised that Brexit

might create security problems for the UK.
In particular in law enforcement and
counterterrorism where the UK could use
the European Union's databases on
individuals crossing the British border.
Security experts have credited the EU's
information-sharing databases with
helping to foil terrorist plots. British
leaders have expressed support for
retaining access to those information-
sharing databases, but it could be
complicated to obtain that access as a
non-member of the EU. Brexit would also
complicate extradition requests. Under a
hard Brexit scenario, the UK would lose
access to basic law enforcement tools,
such as databases comprising European
plane travel records, vehicle registrations,
fingerprints and DNA profiles.[423]

UK bilateral international agreements

The Financial Times said that there were

approximately 759 international
agreements, spanning 168 non-EU
countries, that the UK would no longer be a
party to upon leaving the EU.[424] This
figure does not include World Trade
Organization or United Nations opt-in
accords, and excludes "narrow
agreements", which may also have to be
renegotiated.[424]

UK-EU relationship post-Brexit

The UK's post-Brexit relationship with the

European Union could take several forms.
A research paper presented to the UK
Parliament in July 2013 proposed a
number of alternatives to being a member
state which would continue to allow
access to the EU internal market. These
include remaining in the European
Economic Area,[425] negotiating deep
bilateral agreements on the Swiss
model,[425] or exit from the EU without EEA
membership or a trade agreement under
the WTO Option. There may be an interim
deal between the time the UK leaves the
EU and when the final relationship comes
in force.

UK relations with CANZUK countries

Pro-Brexit activists and politicians have

argued for negotiating trade and migration
agreements with the "CANZUK" countries—
those of Canada, Australia, New Zealand
and the United Kingdom.[426][427]
Numerous academics have criticised this
alternative for EU membership as "post-
imperial nostalgia".[428][429][430] Economists
note that distance reduces trade, a key
aspect of the gravity model of trade, which
means that even if the UK could obtain
similar trade terms with the CANZUK
countries as it had as part of the Single
Market, it would be far less valuable to the
UK.[431][432][433]

World Trade Organization

Questions have arisen over how existing

international arrangements with the EU
under World Trade Organization (WTO)
terms should evolve. Some countries—
such as Australia and the United States—
wish to challenge the basis for division
(i.e., division between the UK and the
continuing European Union) of the trade
schedules previously agreed between
them and the EU, because it reduces their
flexibility.[434]

Cultural references

Anti-Brexit protesters in Manchester

 

Düsseldorf carnival parade in February 2018

Brexit has inspired many creative works,

such as murals, sculptures, novels, plays,
movies and video games. The response of
British artists and writers to Brexit has in
general been negative, reflecting a
reported overwhelming percentage of
people involved in Britain's creative
industries voting against leaving the
European Union.[435]
See also

Book: Brexit
Book: Brexit, Article 50, and other
articles

Book: Britain, Ireland and the

European Union

Causes of the vote in favour of Brexit

Dutch withdrawal from the European
Union
European Union (Withdrawal Agreement)
Bill 2017–19
Frexit
Greek withdrawal from the eurozone
Integration of non-EU states
International reactions to the 2016
United Kingdom European Union
membership referendum
Multi-speed Europe
Interpretation of EU Treaty law by
European Court of Justice
Opposition to Brexit in the United
Kingdom
Referendums related to the European
Union
Template:Brexit note
 Withdrawal of Greenland from the
European Communities

Notes
a. See:[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
b. See:[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]
c. See:[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]

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Link

Further reading
Ansorg, N. & Haastrup, T.: "Brexit Beyond the
UK's Borders: What It Means for Africa", GIGA
Focus Afrika No. 03/2016
Clarke, Harold D.; Goodwin, Matthew;
Whiteley, Paul (2017). Brexit: Why Britain
Voted to Leave the European Union.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
ISBN 978-1316605042.
Culkin, Nigel; Simmons, Richard (2018). Tales
of Brexits Past and Present: Understanding
the Choices, Threats and Opportunities In Our
Separation from the EU. Bingley: Emerald
Publishing. ISBN 978-1787694385.
Evans, Geoffrey; Menon, Anand (2017). Brexit
and British Politics. Cambridge: Polity Press.
ISBN 978-1509523863.
Hobolt, Sara B. (7 September 2016). "The
Brexit vote: a divided nation, a divided
continent". Journal of European Public Policy.
23 (9): 1259–1277.
doi:10.1080/13501763.2016.1225785 .
ISSN 1350-1763 .
Oliver, Tim (2018). Understanding Brexit: A
concise introduction. Bristol: Policy Press.
ISBN 978-1447346395.
O'Rourke, Kevin (2019). A Short History of
Brexit: From Brentry to Backstop. London:
Pelican. ISBN 978-0241398272.
O'Toole, Fintan (2018). Heroic Failure: Brexit
and the Politics of Pain. London: Apollo.
ISBN 978-1789540987.
Outhwaite, William (ed.), Brexit: Sociological
Responses (London: Anthem Press, 2017).
 ISBN 978-1783086443
Peers, Steve (2016). The Brexit: The Legal
Framework for Withdrawal from the EU or
Renegotiation of EU Membership. Oxford:
Hart Publishing. ISBN 978-1-84946-874-9.
OCLC 917161408 .
Rogers, Ivan (2019). 9 Lessons in Brexit.
London: Short Books. ISBN 978-1780723990.

External links

Brexit
at Wikipedia's sister projects

Definitions
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UK government's Brexit information

UK government's official negotiation
documents
European Parliament – Brexit impact
studies
Legal Effect of the Protocol on
Ireland/Northern Ireland, Attorney
General's advice to Prime Minister, 13
November 2018
UK government's Explainer (for the
withdrawal agreement) 14 November
2018
House of Lords report analysing the
proposed Withdrawal Agreement, 5
December 2018
EU's official negotiation documents
UK Parliament – Brexit News
Reading list of post-EU Referendum
publications by Parliament and the
Devolved Assemblies – House of
Commons Library
Record of Brexit-related business in the
devolved legislatures (Northern Ireland,
Scotland and Wales) – House of
Commons Library
Gov UK – Department for Exiting the
European Union
BBC: "Brexit: What are the options?" (10
October 2016)
BBC: "Brexit vote: What could happen
next?" (17 December 2018)
The Brexit Papers, Bar Council,
December 2016
Plan for Britain: The government's
negotiating objectives for exiting the EU:
PM's speech delivered and published on
17 January 2017 – transcript of speech
as delivered at Lancaster House,
London
The United Kingdom’s exit from and new
partnership with the European Union,
February 2017 ("White paper")
Brexit at Curlie
Quotes about Brexit on Euronews
European Council Brexit Guidelines
The economic effects of the
government's proposed Brexit deal
National Institute of Economic and
Social Research, November 2018
How will Brexit affect the UK’s
manufacturing industry? UK Trade
Policy Observatory, February 2018
The real post-Brexit options Lecture by
Ivan Rogers at the University of Glasgow,
23 May 2018
What are the options for the UK’s trading
relationship with the EU after Brexit? UK
in a Changing Europe, King's College
London, December 2018
 Brexit phrasebook: a guide to the talks'
key terms The Guardian, 23 November
2018
Lord Ashcroft: How the United Kingdom
voted on EU referendum day – and why
Conservative Home, 17 March 2019
Explanatory Memorandum for the
Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from
the European Union (Consequential
Provisions) Bill 2019 introduced by the
Irish government in the legislature
( Oireachtas)
EU Council decision, 22 March 2019,
extending the negotiating period

Relating to court cases

Judgment of the Supreme Court of the
United Kingdom in R (Miller) v Secretary
of State for Exiting the European Union
Judgment of the European Court of
Justice in the Wightman case: Right of
unilateral revocation of the notification
Wilson v Prime Minister [2018] EWHC
3520 (Admin)
Ewan McGaughey Could Brexit be Void?
King's Law Journal, Volume 29, 2018,
Issue 3
UK withdrawal from the European Union:
Legal and procedural issues European
Parliamentary Research Service, March
2017
 Ronan McCrea The legal issues of
revoking the notification to leave the EU –
but then notifying to leave again London
School of Economics, 20 December
2018

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