Taller

The third industrial
revolution
Impact N o . 146 \ 3
107 Editorial
109 The Intergovernmental Informatics Programme

André Danzin
115 The third industrial revolution: an economic overview

Rahat Nabi Khan
123 The technical database: storage, recovery and utilization of

industrial and engineering data
David A. Blackburn
133 Computer-aided design: a powerful tool at the disposal of

the designer
Jean Sequeira
139 Mechanics, electronics and computer science: their integration

in manufacturing
Bruno Rebaylia and Sergio Sartori
149 Robots: their present-day use and prospects for the future
Elisabeth Filemon
161 Fifth-generation computer systems and their impact on society

Norihisa Doi, Koichi Furukawa and Kazuhiro Fuchi
171 The engineer and the modern technological revolution

Christo Boutzev
177 The twenty-first century corporation

Roger B. Smith
183 The influence of information technology on the economic and cultural life of
Soviet Central Asia
China iz Aitmatov
189 The growing influence of microelectronics and computer technology
in China
Liu Fengqiao
193 Education for an information age

Blagovest Sendov
Reminder to readers
Impact of science on society is also published in Arabic, Chinese, French, Korean,

Russian and Spanish. Information about these editions can be obtained by writing to
the following:
Arabic: Unesco Publications Centre in Cairo, 1 Talaat Harb Street, Cairo. Arab
Republic of Egypt.
Chinese: Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences. P . O .
Box 821, Beijing, People's Republic of China.
French: Editions Eres, 19 rue Gustave-Courbet, 31400 Toulouse, France.
Korean: Republic of Korea National Commission for Unesco, P . O . Box Central 84,
Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Russian: The U S S R State Committee for Publishing, c/'o the U S S R National
Commission for Unesco, 9 Prospekt Kalinina, M o s c o w G - 1 9 , U.SSR.
Spanish: Universidad de Salamanca, Secretariado de Publicaciones. Intercambio
Cientifico, Apartado 325, Salamanca, Spain.
Authors are responsible for the choice and the presentation of the facts contained in signed anieles
and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of Unesco and do not commit
the organization.
Published texts may be reproduced and translated free of charge (except when reproduction or
translation rights are reserved), provided that mention is made of the author and source. An entire
issue may not be reproduced as a whole without the authorization of Unesco.
Editorial
W e m a y define an industrial revolution as a wave of major innovations linked to each

other and together bringing about a fundamental change in h u m a n society. Are w e then
justified in talking about a third such revolution?
Thefirstindustrial revolution started at the end of the eighteenth century,firstin the
United Kingdom, then in France and Belgium and later — towards the end of the
nineteenth century—in Germany, the U S A and Japan. It was a revolution based o n
coal, and involved the development of iron and steel manufacturing, the railways,
inorganic chemistry and a range of industries producing consumer goods such as
textiles, footware and so on.
By the beginning of the twentieth century the foundations of a second industrial
revolution were already laid. The car and the aeroplane had already been developed—
albeit in their rudimentary forms—and petrol and electricity, the new sources of energy,
were being used. T h e inter-war years saw the development of n e w industries and
processes -including organic chemistry and the production of sheet and plate steel -
and the steady development of automobiles and aircraft. All conditions were thus right
for the industrial growth and development that took place after the Second World W a r
and continued until the 1970s, w h e n the oil crisis occurred.
N o w , towards the end of the twentieth century, a new industrial revolution has
begun -the third. Like the previous two it is bringing with it new forms of energy, new
means of transport and new methods of communication. In this issue of Impact w e
concentrate our attention upon that group of activities that is arguably having the most
profound effect upon our everyday life: the computer and information sciences (or
informatics). Separate articles deal with data retrieval, computer-aided design and
manufacturing, the integrated management of production processes, fifth-generation
computers and robotics, as well as the all-important changes that our educational
systems must undergo to meet the new information age and provide the qualified
m a n p o w e r for the future.
Informatics is recognized as being of key importance to development, and has been
accorded special status within Unesco's present programme. It isfitting,therefore, that
in the first article André Danzin describes the launching of a major n e w initiative by the
Organization: the Intergovernmental Informatics Programme.
Biotechnology also represents a major thrust in the present revolution and it, too,
has been designated a key area of science within Unesco's present programme.
Nevertheless, our readers will forgive us if w e leave the subject to be covered at greater
length in a future issue of impact. •
107 ¡mpih I oj Si'it'/k e nn sot ictY. flu I 4fi. I 07

The Intergovernmental
Informatics Programme
André Danzin
Following the decisions taken at the last session of the General Conference in November
¡985, Unesco is in the process of providing itself with a new means of stimulating
international co-operation in information technology. The Intergovernmental Informatics
Programme (IIP) was effectively established on 23 October 1986 when the delegates of the
thirty-three Member States of the Committee for the Programme unanimously adopted its
rules of procedure, structure, methods of operation, objectives and priorities. The
conclusions of the Committee were approved by the Director-General of Unesco, who
immediately gave consideration to providing the resources needed for the Programme's
satisfactory execution. The IIP is emerging at a crucial moment in the history of mankind.
A glance at the table of contents of this issue of Impact devoted to the third industrial
revolution is enough to reveal h o w fully the authors agree, despite their varied
backgrounds, that w e are currently witnessing a metamorphosis of society. They
situate the origins of this transformation in the automated systems for the processing,
storage and transmission of information. W e are indeed entering a civilization founded
on knowledge, on the accumulation and communication of this knowledge, in which
information will play the role of a primary raw material, more essential even than
mineral and energy resources. T h e combination of microprocessors, electronics,
computer networks communicating with one another through telecommunications
satellites, and sophisticated software, is bringing about a sweeping transformation of all
aspects of economic and social life. T h e scientific dimension is pervading agriculture.
Manufacturing industry is dominated by the new role of computer-assisted design and
robotics. Business organization is having to give priority to the 'information system'
operated by automated office technology. Working at a distance is n o w possible and
efficient thanks to telematics—something in which can be seen in embryo a reversal of
the trend towards the gigantism of the conurbations, which can be broken up and
spread out on 'a h u m a n scale', just as 'modular workshops' will make it possible to
Andre Danzin has had a distinguished eareer in the field of electronics and informatics. His thirty years
working in industry in France culminated in his being m a d e Vice-President Director-General of the C S F
Group. H e was closely involved in its merger with the T h o m s o n G r o u p to form one of Europe's largest
electronic combines, T h o m s o n - C F S . H e subsequently became Director of the national Institut de Recherche
d'Informatique et d'Automatique (IRÍA).
Since 1980 M . Danzin has acted as independent consultant for a number of international organizations,
including Unesco. Amongst the offices he holds is that of M e m b e r of the Executive Committee of the Club of
R o m e . In 1986. he was electedfirstChairman of the Intergovernmental Council of the Intergovernmental
Informatics Programme of Unesco. H e m a y be contacted at the following address: 41, avenue Kléber, 75116
Paris, France.
109 ¡ m pail of \cii'na' on society, n o . 146, 109 I II

André Danzin
reverse the effects of scale by m a k i n g small production units competitive. Conversely,

further advances in the multinationalization of large-scale businesses m u s t be expected
wherever software, which takes n o account of borders, leads to the h a r m o n i o u s spread
of their operations throughout the world. Educational concepts are having to b e
radically rethought, as indeed are the m e t h o d s a n d content of education. Such is the
impact of the n e w media radio, television a n d c o m p u t e r terminals with satellite
relays- -that people's lifestyles, a n d in particular their leisure activities a n d access to
culture, are undergoing a radical transformation.
Unesco's Intergovernmental Informatics P r o g r a m m e (IIP) lies at the epicentre of
this seismic upheaval. Its purpose is to stimulate international co-operation in the
processing and c o m m u n i c a t i o n of information so as gradually to bridge the gap that
has been created between those w h o have pioneered the development a n d use of the
n e w instruments of knowledge a n d those w h o h a v e not been able to take part in this
race towards a n e w civilization. T h e issues at stake are m o m e n t o u s ; the h u m a n a n d
financial resources available to U n e s c o are paltry. But w e m u s t look b e y o n d
appearances. F o r , in practice, even the most m e a g r e assistance can have a decisive
impact.
While it is true that U n e s c o can only be a 'catalyst of co-operation', this role m a y be
a p a r a m o u n t o n e if it arouses a response a m o n g those actively involved, for the IIP is
not alone. P o o r t h o u g h they m a y be, the smaller countries have needs, a n d they also
have specialists possessing qualifications in informatics. In the larger, wealthier
countries, m a n y centres of excellence exist that are devoted to research, development,
the application of research a n d the training of instructors. Generally, those w h o are
actively involved d o not k n o w each other well or h a v e difficulty in communicating with
o n e another. T h e developing countries are sometimes the victims of their o w n isolation.
T h e y are at a loss h o w to tackle their problems, which they have difficulty even in
identifying. T h e m o s t highly industrialized countries live cut off from the rest of the
world even w h e n they export their factory goods a n d their software, for they project o n
others the view that they have of their o w n market.
If the IIP is to succeed, t w o conditions m u s t b e fulfilled.
(1) It is vital that there should he close links in regard to needs a n d the pooling of
experience between States that share the s a m e e c o n o m i c or geographical situation,
particularly in Africa. Latin America, Asia and the A r a b world.
(2) Once objectives have been set, centres of excellence, located in Western or Eastern
E u r o p e , in N o r t h A m e r i c a or in J a p a n , will provide help in the search for appropriate
solutions.
T o be sure, there is today a 'highly active network of commercial relations, but

experience s h o w s that it is not in itself sufficient a n d that it sometimes tends to
aggravate the lack of uniformity in development rather than serving to eradicate it. It is
essential to g o b e y o n d these strictly commercial activities, the freedom of which will in
n o w a y be jeopardized, a n d to build up, at all levels, co-operation that brings into play
science, culture a n d education. T o arouse, through appropriate incentives, such a n
echo or response from those actively involved in the field is the bold ambition of the IIP.
In addition to its potential as a catalyst, the IIP might also claim to possess a
capacity to stimulate the development of talents, and to attract funds. Several countries
have already stated their willingness to m a k e substantial c a m p a i g n funds available to
110
The Intergovernmental Informatics Programme
U n e s c o in the form of voluntary subsidies additional to the Organization's n o r m a l

budget appropriation. Specialists will also be seconded to serve as IIP experts. U N D P
a n d the regional development funding bodies will b e tempted to provide funds once
suitably promising pilot projects have been decided o n . T h e IIP will b e required to
orchestrate this fund-raising c a m p a i g n by encouraging the conclusion of multilateral
co-operative agreements—agreements that need, a n d m u s t , in n o w a y preclude
recourse o n a n increasing scale to bilateral arrangements relating to specific fields.
H o w e v e r , m o r e than o n a n y other form of support, the IIP is counting o n the
a w a k e n i n g of a n e w resolve at the national level. It has accordingly decided to set u p a
network for the exchange of information a n d the search for joint solutions that will b e
based in each M e m b e r State o n a 'focal point' f o r m e d of small task forces of national
IIP organizers, w o r k i n g in close liaison with the ministerial authorities a n d leading
institutions responsible for information technology, c o m p u t e r applications in the
educational system, scientific research a n d the instruments of e c o n o m i c development.
T h e P r o g r a m m e ' s first priority concerns all aspects that relate to the teaching of
informatics a n d to teaching by means o/informatics. First a n d foremost of these is the
training of instructors, followed by introductory courses for y o u n g students o n h o w to
use computers a n d to dialogue with data banks. Computer-assisted teaching m e t h o d s
m u s t be tested with a view to gaining a better understanding of their respective
advantages a n d limitations. H e n c e o n e of the priorities under the Education a n d
Information P r o g r a m m e m u s t be to p r o m o t e a n awareness of the issues a m o n g
decision-makers, political leaders, heads of public services a n d businesss chiefs.
S e c o n d priority has b e e n given to the following three objectives:
(1) The creation and ¡or development of centres for the production of software,
particularly of software for applications specific to a region in which there are several
M e m b e r States.
(2) The development of networks, the term network being understood in the broad sense
of technical telecommunications facilities designed to enable c o m p u t e r centres to
converse with o n e another so that they can e x c h a n g e their software a n d theirfiles,a n d
in the sense of comparative networks of h u m a n resources linking together t e a m s of
specialists w o r k i n g at a distance from each other to finding solutions to p r o b l e m s .
(3) Assistance to governments and major institutions in the framing of informatics policies
by providing responses to specific requests from applicants, although with n o claim o n
the part of U n e s c o to instruct the authorities in M e m b e r States in the correct course of
action or to have a m o n o p o l y of truth in this field, since it is all a matter of specific cases.
T h e IIP C o m m i t t e e , the b o d y responsible for preparing a n d monitoring the

p r o g r a m m e , will meet again in t w o years' time. In the m e a n t i m e , it has entrusted its
Bureau, consisting of the C h a i r m a n , five V i c e - C h a i r m e n , the Rapporteur a n d the
Secretary, with the task of setting u p a b o d y to be responsible for carrying out the
p r o g r a m m e , while at the s a m e time naturally c o m p l y i n g with the rules born of U n e s c o ' s
splendid tradition of conducting major scientific p r o g r a m m e s , for w h i c h the Director-
General of the Organization is, in the final analysis, responsible.
T h e timetable, which is a n extremely ambitious one, is at present n o m o r e than a
draft. T h e next meeting of the B u r e a u which is d u e to take place in M a y 1987, will reveal
111
André Danzin
whether there exists enough resolve to match the initial ambitions. The hope is that it
will be possible to select, roughly six months after the IIP constituent assembly,fiveor
six pilot projects corresponding to regional or inter-regional co-operative schemes.
These pilot projects should be focused o n specific, clearly identified subjects that are
generators of development, whose feasibility can be checked and whose progress can be
monitored by qualified experts. The further pre-condition is, of course, that they must
comply with the criteria laid d o w n by the Committee.
A perusal of this issue oí Impact devoted to the third industrial revolution reveals
the extent to which information technologies are like a fluid permeating the social
body, a yeast leavening the dough of which mankind is m a d e — hence the obstacle that
frontiers present for the IIP. T h e applications of informatics are to be found
everywhere; where indeed are their limits? It is this situation that has led to the creation
of two study units.
O n e study unit set up within Unesco is responsible for ensuring intersectorality.
The person responsible for running it is the Assistant Director-General for Science,
w h o acts in this regard as the special delegate of the Director-General. This measure
has been taken in response to a wish expressed by several delegations at the last session
of the Unesco General Conference.
The second study unit is specific to the IIP. Its purpose is to study the Programme's
interactions with the activities carried out as part of the I P D C (Intergovernmental
Programme for the Development of Communication) and the P G I (General Infor-
mation Programme).
Thanks to these intersectoral linkages, the combined impact of Unesco's activities
in the different interdependent sectors will be strengthened in all its constructive
aspects, and factitious competition will be eliminated.
As regards relations with the Education Sector, the preparation of the International
Congress on 'Education and Informatics', the principle of which was adopted at the last
session of the General Conference, provides the Unesco Secretariat and the IIP
decision-makers with a specific area for co-operation. T h e link-up that has been
established in an orderly w a y and in the best spirit of co-operative endeavour shows
that the difficulty inherent in the problems of intersectorality can be overcome by
providing a challenge that concentrates energies.
The IIP would thus appear to possess the virtue of serving two purposes. With the
outside world, its aim must be to foster co-operation a m o n g M e m b e r States. In its m o r e
inward-looking dealings with Unesco itself, it must help the process of sectoral
interpénétration to bear good fruit despite the boundaries that have been established
by 40 years of separation between the activities entrusted to the different sectors and
divisions of the Organization. T o achieve these objectives, the IIP must maintain a high
profile in its action, and must achieve credibility through its first results and be
convincing in its appeals for co-operation. The task of proving that these ambitions are
realistic must n o w be left to time. Such single-minded ambitions must be combined
with the pragmatism that alone will enable disappointing trial measures to be corrected
and our efforts to be crowned by success.
T o conclude, I should like to include the IIP in the prophetic context of the articles
making up this issue of Impact. I a m thinking in particular of the spirit expressed in
R. B . Smith's contribution, T h e twenty-first century corporation'. In its o w n way,
Unesco is itself a corporation. It too must take a systems approach, and adopt a global
perspective. It too must "wash out the walls', the outer walls that prevent States from
112
The IiUeraoienunenlul Informatics Proaramnw
communicating with one another, so that they can progress both economically and
culturally, and the walls of inner divisions, that are of necessity a feature of the
attribution of responsibilities. T h e challenge made by the President of General Motors
must be successfully taken up not only by a particular industrial group but also by all
h u m a n activity. •
113
The third industrial
revolution: an economic
overview
Rahat Nabi Khan
The new industrial revolution may be defined as the increased and pervasive application of
information technology in most advanced industrial societies and its penetration into the
Third World. By information technology we mean the inter-mix of computers and
communications, and the increasing use of electronics both in industrial processes and
commerce—from the computer-programmed robot on the factoryfloorto the 'smart' credit
card in the pocket of an individual consumer.
The revolution in the developing countries may be expected to gain pace as they
modernize their industries, communication systems and administration both in the public
and private sectors.
T h e 1960s saw the development of electronic data processing capability and the spread
of mainframe computers in most industrialized countries, especially in large organiz-
ations whether industrial, financial or administrative. Before that time specialized
computers had been used in a few areas such as scientific laboratories, weather
forecasting services or universities having a need for processing large quantities of data.
Even today this ' n u m b e r crunching' function is still performed by 'super-computers'
which have a far greater speed than the ordinary mainframe computer.
However, the 'slower' computers in businesses are still very fast indeed and have
progressed in speed and computing power, ever since the transistor w a s invented in
1948, at a rate which is truly astonishing. At the same time the cost of computing, too,
has declined no less dramatically. M o s t of this progress was achieved in hardware; there
was far less progress in software. Indeed, though hardware productivity has gone up in
the past two decades by several thousand times, software productivity in the s a m e
period has merely doubled. Although mainframe computers are slower than the super-
computers they are versatile; they can d o m a n y things while the super computers are
confined to one function.
T h e application of mainframe computers led to the automation of office routines.
Those tasks which were of a repetitive character and involved computation could be
done by machines, rather by hand, thus saving time and labour; and with the rapid
decline in the costs of computation financial savings could be m a d e by firms
Dr Khan is an Indian economisl who lives in Paris and has written tap Impact on several occasions. A
graduate of the London School of Economics, he holds a post-graduate diploma in European studies from
the University of Strasbourg and a doctorate from the University of Paris I. He has been a consultant to both
Unesco and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. H e can be reached c/o the
Editor, Impact of science on society, Unesco, 7 place de Fontenoy. 75700 Paris, France.
115 Impact of science on society, no. 146. 115 122

Rahul Nabi Khan
computerizing their operations. Functions such as accounting, invoicing, payroll and

inventory control could all be performed more efficiently and at a lesser cost.
In the area of mainframe computers International Business Machines, k n o w n the
world over as simply I B M , headed off all competition and dominated the market, as it
still does today. I B M ' s revenue from mainframe computers is the same as that of all its
competitors put together.
T h e 1970s saw the arrival of the mini-computer, an invention of the Digital
Equipment Corporation ( D E C ) , a company which dominates the mid-range computer
market in almost the same way that I B M dominates the mainframe sector. D E C and
the other manufacturers of mini-computers brought computing power within the reach
of m e d i u m and even smallfirms.U p to the advent of the mini-computer only very large
firms could afford the costs of computerization but with the advance o f ' m e m o r y chip'
technology the n e w mini computer achieved the power of a mainframe of only a few
years earlier, and with the dramatic fall in price a far wider use of computers in business
became economically feasible.
Towards the end of the decade and thefirsthalf of the 1980s there arrived the
personal/professional computer, the microcomputer, at a price that individuals could
afford. This suddenly put computing power at the elbow of the members of the liberal
professions—lawyers, doctors, accountants, architects and journalists—and of indi-
viduals for h o m e and leisure use.
Apple Computers and C o m m o d o r e became leaders in the micro-computer market
and Apple still maintains a leading position.
However, I B M too entered the micro-computer market, seeing the future trends in
its o w n line of business. It n o w holds a major share of the market and m a y still become
the n u m b e r one manufacturer in this sector, despite the fact that the I B M personal
computer, or P C , does not represent a significant technological advance over the
models of its competitors.
Advance in telecommunications
The second pillar in the new industrial revolution is the advance in telecommunication
technologies, where there has been an equally dramatic fall in the cost of the
transmission of data and a quantum j u m p in the technical possibilities of moving
information around the world.
Communication systems are undergoing very significant changes as countries
modernize their public exchange systems and m o v e from electromechanical to digital
technology, thus increasing the capacity, efficiency and speed of their communication
networks. N o less significant is the change from copper wire cables to optical fibre
technology for transmission systems.
This is a m o v e from transmitting messages at the speed of sound to the speed of
light. It also increases the capacity of transmission not by ten or hundredfold but by
thousands: a quantum j u m p indeed.
A hair-thin opticalfibrecable can transmit communications at the speed of light
and in quantities which are several thousandfold larger than the electrical equivalent.
Thus the intensity of communications and the amount of information being m o v e d ,
by itself, could be called a revolutionary technological change, even without any other
intervening factor, though it is likely to influence a host of elements in the economic and
social fabric of m a n y contemporary societies before this century is out.
116
An economic overview
A third factor is the use of space satellites in communication, providing an

alternative to the land-based or undersea cables, and thus multiplying further the
communication capacities and capabilities. It is this digital technology which has
opened the way for the intermix of computers and communications. Communications
and computers had previously developed separately without any obvious link between
them; n o w there is a convergence: indeed, a merger of the two. Previously, voice, data
and text had to be separately transmitted for technical reasons. Today it is feasible to
transmit all three on the same cable. Computers can be linked to telephones, and data
and text can be transmitted using telephone lines.
LANS and VANS
Within the business world the linking-up of different micro-computers to each other
and to mini or mainframe central computers through local area networks or L A N S is
n o w a most c o m m o n feature of office automation. O n e of the leading manufacturers in
thisfieldis W a n g Laboratories which has in recent years shown a rate of 50°„ growth
per a n n u m , even during a period of recession. It is strong in middle range computers,
where incidentally I B M is weak, and has developed the most sophisticated word-
processing software.
Another growth area in the communications industry is Value Added Networks or
V A N S . V A N S are services linked to a computer such as credit cards, 'electronic
shopping' and remote banking.
Experiments have been carried out on cashless shopping at points of sale: the
customer presents his plastic card to the cashier, the cashier checks it, the customer taps
his personal identification number, and the money, in a fully developed system of this
sort, will then be automatically transferred from the individual's account to that of the
store or supermarket. This has been heralded as one of the steps towards a cashless
society.
It is n o w c o m m o n in the developed countries for m u c h personal banking to be
carried out through the use of Automatic Teller Machines ( A T M s ) . The customer is not
only able to m a k e withdrawals of cash by using a magnetically coded card, but can also
obtain a statement, transfer funds from one account to another, and so on.
A major firm of City of London stockbrokers, Hoare Govett, was thefirstin the
United Kingdom to introduce the concept of an electronic on-line stock exchange
service for its personal customers. Through this service the stockbroker m a d e available
to individuals what had previously been provided only to institutional investors: on-
line research reports on industries and firms which the stockbrokers regularly follow.
The customer could also obtain on-line valuations of his portfolio and give 'buy' or 'sell'
orders at any time of day or night, with the order executed by the brokers and a contract
note sent later.
Theoretically, the linking up of all such services into a single network in the future is
a possibility. It could be envisaged that all banks' A T M s could be so linked that the
client of any one bank in the system could use the A T M of any other bank.
Industrial standards: corporate super-power competition
All these developments emphasize the need for international standards in the industry.
In other words, equipment m a d e by different manufacturers should be compatible:
117
Rahat Nabi Khun
each piece of equipment should be capable of being linked up with those of other
manufacturers. A s far as mainframe computers are concerned, I B M , owing to its
dominant position in the market, has tended to provide the standards. T o remain in the
main frame business other manufacturers have had to m a k e their products I B M -
compatible. All the major Japanese computers, for example, are I B M 'plug compatible'.
Compatibility with I B M also means access to the vast library of I B M software.
I B M ' s competitors marketing their o w n hardware gain an advantage through their
I B M compatibility: and customers do not have to m a k e expensive new investments in
software if they change machines.
In the competition for linkage between various systems and different types of
computers, the American Telephone and Telegraph C o m p a n y (AT&T) stole a march
on I B M by introducing its Unix system before the latter had anything comparable to
offer.
The Unix system is claimed to be a truly 'transportable' operating system. Before
Unix the mainframe, the mini and the micro-computer were each separate systems.
Unix was capable of linking them all into a single network. A T & T licenced this system
to a host of equipment manufacturers and is striving to make it the industry's standard.
A T & T is in competition with I B M ' s Information Network Architecture or I N A .
The I B M system for linking up its office machines is called S N A or Systems
Network Architecture. About 20000 S N A networks have been so far installed. I B M is
in a strong position since I B M and IBM-compatible computers account for some 80°,,
of the installed systems worldwide.
A T & T ' s strategy is to provide customized business information systems: a mixture
of telecommunication equipment, computers, internal networks and their external link,
the sum of which would provide an organization n o matter h o w far-flung the data
communication system it wants and needs. It believes its system provides 'open
standards' which gives it the capacity to interconnect all present and likely future
equipment sold by different companies. The I B M ' s S N A standard is alleged to have a
'lock-in' effect, obliging the purchaser to buy a single vendor's equipment Hnked to its
mainframe computers.
Computers, robots and manufacturing automation
The question of standards is also important in the field of robotics. Auto-

mation has gone far in the motor industry, and General Motors in the United States
can be regarded as one of the leaders in fostering manufacturing automation (see the
article by the company's President, Roger B . Smith, in this issue). At present it has 4000
robots in its plants but intends to increase the number to 14000 by the end of the
decade. Other motor manufacturers such as Volkswagen in the Federal Republic of
Germany and Nissan in Japan have forged ahead in automating their manufacturing
processes. General Motors, as an important customer of computer firms, has the
necessary power to try to have a 'vendor-independent standard' and is insisting that its
seven different computer suppliers, including I B M and Hewlett Packard, co-operate in
its o w n standard which is known under its acronym M A P or Manufacturing
Automation Protocol. T h e M A P standard would link up the 'islands of automation'
which use different computers to communicate with each other, forming one single
network. Already General Motors is planning to link up its truck manufacturing plants
in Michigan, Louisiana and Canada into a single information network.
118
The acquisition of the TexasfirmE D S (Electronic Data Systems) by General Motors

was intended as an important step in the strategy of further fostering the applications of
automation within the company and of handling its very considerable worldwide
information network. Another step in the same direction was a joint venture with
F A N U C of Japan called G M F Robotics which already claims an overall 25% market
share of robots in the U S A , of which at least 50% are motor industry related. General
Motors' o w n needs alone could take up to 80% of its output.
The third step by General Motors was the acquisition of Hughes Aircraft, a firm
which is very strong in electronics and the manufacture of space satellites. This would
provide the company with the possibility of linking up far-flung operations into a single
worldwide network.
The ultimate goal of most largefirmsin developing their o w n information and data
networks is to have every unit within their organizations supplied with management
information on all the other units simultaneously, thus overcoming the inefficiency
associated with the temporal and spatial separation of their various business
operations.
F r o m the point of view of manufacturing automation the motor industry is of
particular interest since it is making the most far-reaching transition from the so-called
'smokestack' and 'metal-bashing' industry of an earlier epoch to the 'high-tech' and
science-based industry of today.
T h e Wolfberg plant of Volkswagen in the Federal Republic of G e r m a n y is one of
the most highly automated plants anywhere in the world. Robots have been employed
for a long time in welding operations and paintshops of car plants, but in Wolfberg, as
in other major car production plants, robots are n o w being employed in assembly.
They fit batteries, engines and fix wheels, using specialized 'grippers' for each task. The
next step is to develop 'universal hands' for robots which will enable them to do a
variety of jobs with the same grippers. Earlier types of robots, when they had to be
physically programmed, were 'blind' and ' d u m b ' . They could not distinguish between
objects and were only capable of going through a given set of mechanical motions to
perform a given task. Today's robots are more sophisticated, they can distinguish
objects using a range of sensors; they are programmed by computers and will perform
the set of motions whichfitsan object. Thus they are capable of performing m a n y tasks
which earlier machines could not do. Robots can n o w handle the storage of
components, transport these components from the storage area for assembly, and
assemble various parts in the required order.
In the car industry the new robots allow what is called 'flexible manufacturing'. T h e
concept offlexiblemanufacturing means that different models of cars can be assembled
at the same time without retooling, something which could not be done before. T h e
volume of production of each model can also be regulated according to market
indications, increasing the production of models whose sales are brisk and lowering the
production rate of those which are selling slowly, thus saving inventory costs for both
manufacturers and dealers. Flexible manufacturing has been m a d e possible because of
the versatility of the latest robots which are able to distinguish between various models
of car and their various components.
Globalization: multinational alliances and alignments
T h e developments in the three core technologies of the n e w industrial revolution,

namely microelectronics, computers and telecommunications, point to an increasing
119
Riihat Nabi Khan
globalization of markets, production, research and development. Multinational

companies are forming alliances and alignments to increase their competitive strength
in those areas where they are weak. T w o corporate superpowers have been discussed
earlier: I B M and A T & T ; both have recently formed important links with Asian,
American and European firms, through joint ventures, marketing agreements and by
straightforward takeovers or stock buying.
These alliances and alignments are inevitable for a number of reasons. Even
corporate giants like I B M and A T & T k n o w that they cannot exploit the full potential
of the new technologies if they decide to go it alone. I B M , which has mainly been a data
processing company, has to expand in the area of telecommunications, where it has no
experience. A T & T , for over half a century a public utility and absent from the
international arena, has to face the formidable marketing power and skills of I B M .
Technology itself dictates globalization in these industries. They are all research
and development intensive. For example, it takes something like S1 billion to develop a
public telephone exchange system. N o company can hope to recoup such R & D costs
by relying only on the national or even the regional market.
In computing, progress is so fast that the life-span of a product is d o w n to some
three years, after which the machine is obsolete. If costs are to be recovered and profits
m a d e the products will have to be marketed far and wide quickly and in large volume.
In micro-electronics or 'memory chip' production, research and development is
important since the other two technologies depend on it. The microchip represents the
building block of both computers and telecommunication systems. Here, two-thirds of
the market in the most powerful general purpose item, the 64K chip, has been captured
by the Japanese. In semiconductor production the U S A and Japan dominate; Europe is
far behind and the rest of the world still further (see table 1 ). The reason given by some
commentators is the fragmentation of the European market, which does not allow for
large-volume production, and the fact that the Europeans are more apt to think in
terms of national or regional solutions to technological and trade problems. Yet this is
changing as the links between European and non-European firms already
demonstrate.
Enter the developing countries
Where does all this lead, as far as the developing countries are concerned?
The developing countries, which have taken up the high technology options are
already in the van of progress.
For example, some experts believe that before the end of the century the Republic of
Korea m a y be producing more microchips than Western Europe. And after long
hesitation, and some false starts in its industrial policy, India now realizes that the
modernization of its industry calls for the rapid development and applications of
electronics.
In the software market, Indian exports have increased by 40% per a n n u m . T w o
Indian software houses, Tata Consultancy and Tata Burroughs, have developed and
sold bank-dealing systems to European banks. Texas Instruments has built a satellite
station in Bangalore, India, from which software written in India m a y be relayed
directly to its design centre in Bedford in the United Kingdom.
These are, however, small beginnings. M u c h depends on the right policy decisions
being taken in the future.
120
.•l/i economic occrneu
Table 1
Annual production ($M)
World semiconductor
Region 1982 1984 1986
production
USA
Integrated circuits 9365 14410 22020
Total semiconductors 11210 16635 24725
Western Europe
Japan
Rest of Worldt
Total integrated circuits 13425 20955 32265
t Excludes U S S R and Eastern Europe, but includes China.

Source: Integrated Circuit Engineering.
Apart from these few instances of developing countries striving to find a niche for
themselves in the new technologies, there seems to be little indication so far that the
majority of developing countries are alert to the possibilities opening up in the n e w
industrial era that the world is entering. This said, it should also be pointed out that
those countries w h o d o adopt the 'high-tech' approach to their future developments,
m a y face, as with all technological change, some hard economic and social problems of
adjustment. Examples of such problems are not difficult to find: if mathematics and
science graduates of high calibre and in sufficient numbers can be engaged in India to
write software at 10% of the cost encountered in the developing countries, the 90",,
savings or profits m a d e goes to w h o m : national governments and multinational
corporations? W h a t about the individuals and groups concerned? Will they perceive it
as an equitable division of benefits from the possibilities opened up by the new
industrial revolution? If not what new structures will have to be called forth to redress
the balance in their favour?
In manufacturing automation similar problems arise. If in order to protect
industries which traditionally provided significant employment in developed countries,
say textiles or automobile manufacturing, these countries adopt computer controlled
automated manufacturing, then productivity will be increased, with hardly any
reduction in unemployment. The developed country's industry m a y be protected but
not so its employment, which is generally given as the major argument for defending
industries from competition offered by the newly industrializing countries through the
use of tariffs. The net result m a y be restriction of the developing countries' markets in
the developed countries, resulting in the shrinking of the latters' markets in the
industrializing countries which would have imported more if allowed to export more,
121
with continuing islands of unemployment even in periods of recovery and industrial

restructuring in developed countries.
Suffice it to say that the n e w industrial revolution will bring not only opportunities
but also problems for both the North and the South: problems requiring serious and
responsible solutions. •
122
The technical database:
storage, recovery and
utilization of industrial
and engineering data
D . A. Blackburn
Routine interrogation of computer driven databases is now feasible for corporate,

professional and private groups, the wide range of databases providing a powerful means to
correlate activity in the technical and commercial sectors. As full-text scientific databases
become common, marked changes in publishing may be expected, with media of high
information storage density providing local databases with capacities equivalent to those
of libraries. Problems of copyright, not technology, will dominate the relative growth of
central and local databases.
Libraries are traditional custodians of our culture. They provide a service which allows
us to advance our understanding through the transmission of ideas, concepts,
descriptions and experiences from one generation to another. The service has long been,
highly valued. Medieval scholars would endure the rigours of extended and u n c o m -
fortable travel to gain access to libraries and the centres of learning surrounding them.
They had no real choice. This was their sole means of making direct contact with the
reasoning, the arguments and the facts established by earlier scholars.
Printing, and the relatively recent procedures of indexing and codifying, brought
about the libraries w e k n o w today. B o o k s are copied in sufficient n u m b e r that a reader
need normally m a k e only a modest trip to reach a centre with a wide range of
publications. With good catalogues, the search for specific books a n d articles has
become simple and with cross referencing of articles, the proliferation of abstracting
journals, and the m o v e m e n t of books o n both national and international loans, m a n y
people are able to stay well informed using a local service.
A few modern libraries—the P o m p i d o u Centre in Paris is a good example -extend
their collection to include music, photography and film. They use all the media o n
which information can be stored and provide systematic access not just from one text to
another but from o n e m e d i u m to another. They provide a complete information
service.
But all this is not enough. M o d e r n research workers, engineers, leader writers,
inventors, travel agents and credit brokers expect their information on call. They do not
David Blackburn is Director of the Oxford Research Unit of the O p e n University. A physicist, he has worked
in the United Kingdom, United States, France and Nigeria. His principal research interest is irreversible
processes in solids: he has also worked as a consultant in distance education and on the problems of
international collaboration in education. Stimulus for the present article arises from a Unesco project on the
use of compact discs for the teaching of oceanography by remote sensing techniques. His address is: Oxford
Research Unit. The O p e n University, F o x c o m b e Hall, Berkeley Road, Boars Hill, Oxford O X 1 5 H R , U K .
123 Impact oj science on society, no. 146. 123-131

D. A. Blackburn
want to visit even local libraries, but expect full information facilities in the office, or at
h o m e . They do not even want to walk to the bookshelf to thumb through a volume to
obtain their information. Recent advances have m a d e it possible for m a n y people to
gain access to large volumes of information in just this way.
Database growth
Precisely what has changed data access? Clearly, a whole complex of information
handling devices is involved in what is n o w a major information storage and
transmission industry. But there are two principal changes. O n e is that an increasing
fraction of published material is held in digital form, so making it suitable for direct
entry to a computer. The other is that the equipment needed to interrogate a distant
computer is n o w c o m m o n l y available at a price which m a n y people can afford as an
item of domestic expenditure.
W h e n an article is available in digital form it is a simple matter to list keywords,
title, abstract and even the full text in the m e m o r y of a computer. If a sufficient body of
comparable material, relating to just a few themes or topics, is listed and if selections
from this list can be m a d e by a computerized search for c o m m o n elements, the list can
be called a database.
Databases are not inherently large and some, indeed, are constructed to no more
than personal whim. Most, however, are of significant size. A company database might
list all details—including drawings—of a product under design, or even the specifi-
cations of all competing products. A commercial database would be expected to
provide comprehensive cover of itsfield.Commercial listings might be of regulations
relating to electrical wiring shown country by country, of all patents in thefieldof
electronics, of all major articles in the field of bio-engineering. Major commercial
databases m a y well hold a million or more records but specialist databases, or ones
which are subject to a rapid change, m a y be considerably smaller.
Since publishers see the inclusion of their material in a database as an additional
source of revenue they are largely willing to collaborate with database owners. W h a t
results is a rapidly growing body of scientific, technological and commercial
information dealing with research, with patents and with the huge tabulations of
statistical data provided by government, international, business and research organiz-
ations. So rapid is the growth in both size and number of those databases that there is
n o w even a database of databases.
There are probably about 2500 active databases open to public interrogation. They
include newsletters dealing with trends in specialized commercial markets, currency
exchange rates, worldwide weather reports, company listings showing sales volume
and range of product, patents, abstracts of papers in chemistry and physics, and
guidelines on the control of chemical substances. The list covers almost every fact of
h u m a n activity; some of them—those for example on religious affairs and philosophy—
are rather distant from normal commercial life.
Searching the database
W h a t has really turned the database industry into big business is ease of access. Just
two devices are involved: the personal computer (PC) or 'micro' —and the modem.
124
The technical database
M o d e r n PCs will send a question in digital form and accept a response for display on
the screen or for printout. M o d e m s put the query into the telephone system and feed the
return to the P C . T o enter the database the user need do no more than type a telephone
number on the computer keyboard and provide s o m e evidence of identification. With
some systems the charge can be m a d e to a credit card account.
Interrogation of a database is akin to making intelligent use of a library catalogue
and then following up references. Associated with every piece of data is a series of key
words, k n o w n for the purposes of search as descriptors. The words m a y be those in the
titles of articles, the names of authors, countries, organizations, commercial companies
or of prominent people. They m a y represent a device, a chemical compound, a process
or an activity: also possible are naturally occurring events or phenomena such as tidal
races and storms, or trees, clouds and rocks.
W h e n interrogated using a particular descriptor the reply from the database, in the
first instance, is to quote the number of articles, or pieces of data, or records associated
with that word. Suppose, for example, you have an interest in human-powered flight.
Y o u might gain access to an engineering database and begin with the descriptor vehicle.
The response might be 50000. Since this is m a n y more articles than you would care to
read you might try to refine your query. Y o u might ask for the number of articles each
having the t w o descriptors vehicle and human-powered. This can be thought of as the
combined descriptor vehicle A N D human-powered. It might elicit a response of 500. Since
this is still too m a n y to be useful you might then list the titles of thefirstfew articles to
see if they suggest a pattern for further elimination. Alternatively you might guess that
most articles would be about bicycles and so try with the descriptor vehicle A N D human-
powered A N D N O T bicycle. If the response dropped to 30 you might call for a listing, by
title and author, of these articles, accepting that some might be about skateboards or
tricycles. Y o u would then go to a library to look up the interesting titles.
There are two points to note about this little scenario. The first is that the search
pattern is not unique: almost certainly the descriptorsflightA N D human-powered would
have performed the search more efficiently. The second is that thefinalstep is to go to a
library. A s yet it is u n c o m m o n to read the full text of an article directly from a scientific
database.
Database interrogation is an emerging skill. It takes wit and understanding to
conduct an efficient search, to obtain the essential information without an excess of
irrelevant material from a large and complex database. O n e complication is that not all
words are accepted as descriptors, so the database managers normally provide a
thesaurus which lists acceptable descriptors and structures the list so as to help modify
their area of enquiry by the use of linked words.
The U S Department of Energy has an Energy Data Base whose thesaurus well
illustrates what is involved in an efficient search. With about 1000 pages and 25000
listings the thesaurus attaches to each descriptor a number of terms to which it has an
affinitive or hierarchical relationship. This number varies in the range 2-50 and lists
alternative terms which will widen an enquiry or narrow it or simply have a
relationship to the descriptor that could be useful. For example, the thesaurus lists
under distillation the broader term separation process and the narrower terms
destructive distillation and vacuum distillation. It also lists a dozen or so related terms
which include azeotrope, evaporation and stilläge. The thesaurus thus introduces new
terms to the non-specialist searcher and jogs the mind of one w h o knows a topic well.
125
D . A. Blackburn
Database users
There is a current debate about just w h o should interrogate databases. As there m a y be

a charge both for connect time and for each record called, the database industry is not
unwilling to see the users of the information, the researcher or the business
professionals, handle the searches. There are m a n y of them, and their searchers are not
necessarily efficient, so this is excellent for business. Companies and research
institutions using the information services are perhaps rather more inclined to keep the
matter in the hands of professional librarians with a view to keeping charges d o w n .
A separate issue is that the users—endusers as they are known—are in some
measure taking over the function of the librarian with resulting professional concern.
Questions of this nature are reminiscent of stories about those ancient libraries whose
librarians were reputed to hold their material in bizarre and idiosyncratic ways with a
view to ensuring their self-importance as the only ones able to find important
documents.
These issues seem out of place today and it is perhaps m o r e germane in assessing the
future of database interrogation to note that in surveys of systems whose users were free
to use terminals or to ask professional librarians to do the interrogation the younger
researchers turned to the terminals and the older ones to the professionals. It seems
likely that database interrogation will follow the history of the office copier and change
very rapidly from a select and privileged tool to one for the use of all.
Content and correlation
T h e research users of databases tend to read the full text of articles in a library. Other
database users obtain all the information they need at the terminal. Most obvious
a m o n g them are the travel agents w h o check seat availability and m a k e reservations,
hence database entries, on the spot. W h a t distinguishes the travel agent from the
researcher is that the quantity of data in an interrogation is small. Just aflightn u m b e r
and a date m a k e the original query, and a statement of status is the reply. T h e
transaction closes with a n a m e , and perhaps a credit card number.
M a n y commercial databases deal with queries of this succinct type. Queries o n
currency exchange rates, the market prices of stocks and shares or the financial
standing of public corporations are answered in few words. W h a t is really impressive is
the way an experienced database user can m o v e a m o n g his information sources to build
up a detailed picture of a c o m p a n y or a process. T h e wide range of databases provides a
m e a n s of correlating and analysing activity on the periphery of the technological and
commercial sectors as has never been done before. Y o u might call up the abstract of an
article from a G e r m a n journal, then relate the article to a U S patent, then check the two
against the industrial output of a company operating, say, in Japan. T o d o this would
take just a few minutes and there would be no need to leave the terminal.
Full-text databases
Full-text databases present particular problems. Prominent a m o n g such databases

offering full-text storage are those dealing with newspapers and magazines. For s o m e
time n o w a dozen or more periodicals, including the New York Times and Fortune
magazine, have offered this service. It differs from the usual research database in that
126
the search for descriptors m a y be carried through the full text and copy can be provided
on-line. In terms of search capability this is a remarkable extension of database
operation, for the volume of material considered greatly exceeds that of the usual listing
of keyword, author and title.
Such a service is clearly popular with journalists and political aides w h o can quickly
review positions taken o n any chosen topic or follow-up the views expressed by any
particular politician. Searches in databases like this can be difficult to handle, since
there is a potential to list major quantities of extraneous material. These databases are
so popular that they are being extended backwards in time to cover the period before
articles were available in digital form. They have even spawned a minor industry in the
copying of old articles. Remarkably, this is done both by specialized optical character
recognition devices, working off old copy, and by h u m a n typists.
Scientific and technological databases could also operate using full text but the
volume of material is formidable. Dialog Information Services provides access to some
hundreds of databases and holds something like 100 million records taken from 10000
journals. Most records are n o w in abbreviated form but the use of full text is extending.
The task of providing a full-text search and retrieval service for this database is
immense, but it is certainly in hand.
Databases and publishing
Just as the publishing industry is moving over to digital storage of text so also are the
creators of the text themselves moving to digital representation. With the rising fashion
for word processing and for desk-top publishing, the need for centrally produced hard
copy is diminishing.
T h e distinction between processing and publishing must be emphasized. In
considering the consequences of the change, m a n y authors nowadays have the facilities,
often through the use of laser printers, to produce papers and reports which are of book
quality. They n o longer provide a typescript which must be marked up by an editor to
show the font required and the conventions which a particular journal follows on titles,
sections, sub-sections and references. Instead the text is prepared as a complete
document with editing c o m m a n d s built in. At present this results in a curious hybrid.
Papers submitted by authors and given to the referees of scientific journals are
sometimes printed more clearly, often more spaciously, than will be thefinalversion
shown in the journal itself. The author has a digital version of the paper but the printing
house works from a printed version of the text.
T o circumvent this awkward treatment of material the American Mathematical
Society has encouraged its authors to use a convention on printing instructions k n o w n
as T E X . Authors w h o use this convention and adopt the society house-style o n
presentation m a y submit papers by telephone with n o need to use hard copy at all. For
journals offering this facility the expression submit a paper is already an anachronism.
Ifjournals accept on-line submission of material, and if the full text of the journal is
available on-line from a database, it is an open question whether there is long-term
merit in having a hard-copy version of the journal at all. Certainly there is a need in the
short term. Database users are few relative to those w h o use the existing literature o n
science and technology but it is questionable whether the data rates of current
transmission systems could handle the traffic required if the n u m b e r were greatly
increased.
127
D. A. Blackburn
For developing countries a rapid change to a paper-free system of information flow

could be particularly unfortunate. Database access to information is inevitably more
expensive than conventional distribution by journal, and the problem is exacerbated by
the uncertainties of m a n y telephone services. There is, in addition, the complication
that most journals are published in the developed countries and the majority of their
subscribers live there. If the information market were to m o v e in such a w a y that m a n y
subscribers took paper-free versions of journals it is not at all certain that subscriptions
from the developing world would themselves sustain the market for conventional
publication.
O n e interesting consequence of paper-free publication might be that the developing
world would take over conventional publication, producing local versions of
technological journals in m u c h the same way as has already happened with text books.
Since the journals would be drawn from the entire technological database there would
be no need for them to conform precisely with the journals from which they were
derived. Articles could be drawn from groups of publications in response to local need
or preference and could be augmented by locally produced articles written by
conventional means. Abstracting journals would provide the usual search facilities.
Possible changes in database organization
Impressive as current database operations m a y be, changes m a y yet occur. This is a new
industry and both its hardware and its structure are by no means settled. At present a
database takes the physical form of a mainframe computer whose configuration is
optimized to respond to data search queries as they c o m e in at random times on m a n y
parallel communications lines. Essential additional elements in the system are good
telephonic communication and the user-controlled terminals. Essential also for the
research user is access to hard copy of complete texts. T h e means of bypassing
telephone and hard copy are n o w available.
The real competition for the shape of the future technological database will
inevitably take place in the developed world where the necessary capital investment can
be m a d e . It seems likely that developments will be governed by two broad issues which
are well described in computer terminology as hardware and software. Hardware
competition has to do with all the new devices which will inevitably store more
information, search it and transmit it m o r e rapidly, display it, in improved form, on
terminal or printout. Software competition concerns the information itself, seen as an
intellectual property to be m a d e widely available, but at a fee.
Local databases
In thinking of the hardware problem a useful analogy to have in mind is the

competition, some years ago, between large and small computer systems. O n the one
hand were large central machines with excellent peripheral facilities and m a n y
terminals; on the other were the micro-computers, the PCs. So evident were the
advantages of the mainframe machines that the PCs were almost regarded as toys. But
the little machines provided an independence of operation that suited m a n y people; the
market in them expanded, and they n o w handle a good fraction of all computer
business. N o one would n o w dismiss them as toys.
128
In database terms, the equivalent of the P C is a dispersed information system whose

elements can be purchased and used under local control: effectively it is a computer-
accessible library. Such a library would need updating, perhaps monthly or quarterly,
but would not provide the daily updates of the commercial databases. A system of this
sort could well satisfy the requirements of m a n y research workers and of engineering
professionals. It can be seen as a local database.
Already, the technical elements of such information systems are available. They
centre on a version of the c o m m o n compact disc player k n o w n as C D - R O M , where
R O M is an acronym for Read Only M e m o r y . T h e domestic version of the compact disc
holds music in digital form. A database version differs only in the provision of a m o r e
flexible search routine in the player. Information read from the disc would be displayed
on a P C or printed as required. C D - R O M is not inherently expensive and error-
correction techniques, based o n redundancy, developed for music players have already
shown an impressive capability to operate with precision, even w h e n subject to the
vagaries of the domestic environment.
Information is encoded o n compact discs as a succession of small pits impressed o n
the surface. Discs are read by detecting variations in the intensity of light reflected from
the surface by individual pits as the disc spins past the detector. Pits are packed very
densely on the disc surface- something like 30 of them could be put o n the cross section
of a h u m a n hair—so a large quantity of information can be recorded.
The information capacity of a disc is about 600 megabytes. T o put this in scale, the
length of this article is about 4000 words, roughly 24 000 characters and roughly 24 000
bytes. A disc therefore might hold 25 000 such articles. Again, this is such a large
number that it m a y be useful to put it into professional terms. A s a physicist I read a
publication called Current Papers in Physics which, twice monthly, lists titles, authors
and references for new papers published in the period. C P P covers the whole held of
physics, lists about 75 000 items per year and treats a high fraction of the papers I need
to read. If I suppose that professional articles are about twice the length of the present
one, this suggests that just 6 or 7 discs could carry the full text for all leading articles in
physics published in a year, and provide m e with virtually everything to which I might
wish to refer. This would be an impressively compact local database.
Impressed discs cannot be updated so the compact disc is unsuited to the rapidly
changing database. Other discs k n o w n as W O R M s (Write O n c e Read M a n y times) d o
have this capability, being able to accept data from a central database and then to
provide fast local access. They are, however, expensive relative to the compact disc, and
are as yet u n c o m m o n . Discs which m a y be rewritten with data are expected in a few
years.
Copyright and cost
While discs in their m a n y potential variations offer a technological alternative to the

central database, their success m a y well be irrelevant to future decisions o n h o w
databases are used. Information is a marketable quantity and database operators
expect to m a k e a charge for database use. C o m p a c t discs carry so m u c h information
that database owners m a y be reluctant to release them onto the open market. A
comparison to bear in mind is that the disc m a y hold the equivalent of 1000 textbooks
or novels in readily copyable form, so the revenue loss from illicit printing could be
unacceptable.
129
D. A. Blackburn
Interestingly, the compact disc is itself not too easy to copy. T h e trouble is that the
data are readily taken from it. W O R M s present a ready means of taking copies from the
compact disc and if they fall in price their availability could well inhibit growth of
the compact disc database market.
It will be interesting to see h o w database owners approach this local database
possibility. It seems likely that, if they consider the matter at all, they will set a high
charge so that only major libraries can afford major databases. Another possibility,
albeit unlikely, is that they will aim for a popular market so that engineers,
technologists and scientists will individually buy a complete professional database.
Perhaps the most likely outcome is that last year's databases will be seen as comparable
to yesterday's newspapers: n e w databases will be priced for libraries, but those from last
year will be priced for the larger individual market.
Matters of access
So mobile is the information processing profession that the likely developments in

database use are hard to predict, except in the general sense that m o r e information will
be available to more people at diminishing cost. In terms of devices, it is worth noting
that the elements of a mobile database already exist: compact disc music players are
carried by s o m e joggers, and portable computers with flat screens already fit inside a
briefcase. Combining the two would allow the subway reader the choice of an
encyclopaedia or a thousand novels to enliven the day's commuting.
In some ways the challenge to write useful software is greater than that relating to
hardware. T w o main problems are evident: cerebral, as opposed to informational,
access to the database is still difficult, and most databases work in a single language-
English.
Likely developments in database access include the agreement of conventions on
the structure and organization of databases. Following this there is a need for
programmes operating between user and database to guide the strategy for search.
W h e n full-text searches become more c o m m o n it will be important to provide
systematic means of eliminating the unwanted papers that pass the test of the initial
descriptors. W h a t is needed is the database equivalent of the wordprocessing and
spreadsheet programmes which have done so m u c h to m a k e P C s the convenient tools
they n o w are. There is much discussion of whether what are called expert systems must
be devised for this task, and time will tell whether this is really so. But it would be useful
in thefirstinstance to have s o m e conventions on database presentation and a few
standard search routines that could be picked up readily by the occasional user and put
quickly to work.
In connection with English language domination of the database it is interesting to
note that there is n o w a major E E C initiative to promote machine translation of the
European languages, through a project k n o w n as Eurotra which is scheduled to reach a
prototype stage in the coming two years. If a package such as m a y emerge from this
project could be placed between the user and the database it would greatly open up the
existing systems to international use.
Finally, a point most apposite in a Unesco publication: there is a need to bring
consideration of the needs of the developing nations into the extending database. This
is a vigorous industry which has grown in conformity with strong market forces. It
holds sway over intellectual property which is the creation of m a n y people, yet it seems
130
possible it will progressively deny, at least in relative terms, access to this property by
the poorer communities. This would be wrong, and contrary to the evolutionary path
of our society.
It n o w seems time for Unesco, and those other organizations which have experience
in the handling of intellectual property rights, to engage in debate on the development
of extended databases and to ensure that the emerging conventions of access, whatever
they m a y be, are shaped by at least s o m e forces more subtle than those the market will
itself bring to bear. This is a complex issue and one not well suited to simplistic
solutions. •
131
Computer-aided design:
a powerful tool
at the disposal of the
designer
Jean Sequeira
The rapid expansion of computer-aided design characterizes not only scientific and
technological progress, but an evolution in our understanding of computer science. It is no
longer a question, as was often the case until recently, of considering the computer as being
all-powerful and capable of resolving all our problems, nor of condemning it and blaming it
for all our ills. Between these two extreme attitudes, computer-aided design offers the
tremendous capacities of the computer for handling, storing and communicating data in
order to enhance and make the most of the experience and imagination of the designer.
Every creation necessarily begins with a phase k n o w n as design. Whether it involves

the bodywork of a car or a perfume bottle, the development of a shopping centre or the
wiring of an electronic circuit, the starting point of the creation is always in the
designer's mind. A n idea, perhaps a little hazy, the result of his experience and
imagination, takes shape and then needs to be materialised; this is thefirststep— the
outline. A few lines on a sheet of paper, a few pieces of cardboard glued together, a lump
of clay roughly moulded and the broad outline appears of what will later become a
sophisticated product. There is a constant to-and-fro between the creator's mind and
the material basis of his creation: lines are erased, the pieces of cardboard m o v e d
around, the clay remoulded. At the end of this process, a model is created which will
accurately resemble the object conceived and which should enable it to be constructed.
In any case, the designer will need material support to enable him to perfect and
clarify his ideas during the stages of creation and modification of the model. Technical
plans fulfil these conditions, providing a symbolic representation of the object to be
manufactured. By creating a model, a m o r e realistic picture is obtained, even though it
is less precise and less malleable. These t w o approaches lackflexibility,and one needs to
take into consideration the time needed for even a minimal transformation of the
model.
The computer at the service of the designer
Computer-aided design, m o r e c o m m o n l y called C A D , consists of placing the potential

of the computer tool at the disposal of the designer. It n o w becomes possible to define a
Jean Sequeira is an engineer by training, and is m o r e particularly specialized in thefieldof computer graphics.
A graduate from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Télécommunications, he
obtained his Doctorate in Engineering for his work in computer graphics. H e is currently in charge of a
project on the simulation and visualization of the organs of the h u m a n body, at the Scientific Centre of I B M -
France. H e can be contacted at the following address: Centre Scientifique d'IBM-France. 36 avenue
R a y m o n d Poincaré. 75116 Paris Cedex. France.
133 Impact of science on soacl\. no. 146, 133-138

Jean Sequeira
descriptive scene in two or three dimensions, to modify it and visualize it on a graphic

terminal. The ideal conditions thus exist for helping the designer in his task, but using,
this time, a particularly high-powered instrument.
The calculating potential of the computer allows a wide range of tests to be carried
out with no adverse effect on the model of the object to be designed, which was not the
case with the examples mentioned earlier. T h e possibilities of m e m o r y storage n o w
available provide access to libraries of models which can serve as references.
Communication networks between computers ensure efficient management of the
model from the design office to the place of manufacture. Thus, the data constituted and
handled by the designer can be used directly, for example for the numerical control of
the machine tools that will manufacture the desired object. This latter process is called
computer-aided manufacture ( C A M ) and is a direct development from C A D .
In fact, C A D has given birth to various disciplines grouped together under the
collective name CAX—computer-aided ' X ' . O f these the most important, at the present
time, are without a doubt C A I (computer-aided instruction) and C A E (computer-aided
engineering). This opens up a n e w w a y of understanding the relationship between
informatics and the h u m a n sciences: it is, in any case, a matter of making use of the
phenomenal potential of the computer to liberate m a n from all cumbersome tasks and
hence to let his imagination run free.
The evolution of CAD
T h e use of graphics equipment and the handling of huge volumes of data m a d e C A D a

very expensive activity. As a consequence, it has only been exploited, at least up until
the last few years, by largefirmsin heavy industry and in the building trade. In general,
these firms have developed their o w n software in collaboration with the graphics
equipment manufacturers. C A D has mainly been used in the design and manufacture of
aircraft wings, the hulls of boats, the bodywork of cars, engines and in thefieldof public
works and electronics.
The recent b o o m in computer science, and in particular computer graphics, has
completely changed the nature of the problem. It is n o w possible for a small firm to
acquire a C A D system ready for use at a very reasonable price. For these firms, this
represents an important element of profitability and creativity. C A D has undergone
reorientation towards light industries such as those involving footware, clothing,
lighting and telephones.
Ergonomics: transparency and interaction
A computer-aided design system is not merely a collation of geometric data processing

depicting the world in which w e live. It must, above all, be a tool for the designer and, in
this respect, it will be organized around him and according to his needs. Ergonomie
considerations will therefore be essential for the elaboration of such a system. In
particular, the user should not be bogged d o w n by the intricacies of computer science
processes that arc in n o way connected to hisfieldof specialization.
Transparency and interaction are the fundamental components of friendly m a n -
machine communication. For the former, it is a question of providing the designer with
an accurate representation of the entities to be handled, similar to that which he is used
to and which is not, or hardly, affected by the evolution in hardware and software.
134
CAD—a tool for the designer
Interaction corresponds to the continuous dialogue between m a n and the machine.

The user must be able, at any m o m e n t , to intervene at every stage of the model which he
is handling. The machine must thus immediately respond to this intervention and to the
changes which ensue.
The creation and manipulation of a model by the designer will be effected through
graphic hardware and software. At the heart of the system, mathematical simulation of
the objects will give an account of their geometric properties and will be the foundation
for the various transformations. W e shall n o w continue with a rather more detailed
examination of these two essential aspects of computer-aided design.
Man-machine dialogue in C A D
The image forms the fundamental basis of this dialogue. Thus, an effective c o m m u n i -
cation between the designer and his model depends on the quality of this image. A
balance therefore has to be found between the realism and the symbolism of the visual
representation: whilst a realistic image provides a certain reassurance to the user, the
introduction of symbols and codes does allow m o r e information to be presented.
In order for the designer to have total control, the system must immediately
visualize his every action. This implies that it must generate a new image of the model
every time it is modified. The computing time needed to produce such an image must be
sufficiently short to ensure a certain friendliness in the dialogue.
In the manipulation of the model it is essential that the user can have access to each
of its constituent elements. This access is obtained through the image and a structure
will provide the link between the points of this and the various parts of the model.
Graphics equipment
Graphics displays used in C A D have recently undergone an important evolution. T h e

standard in thisfieldappeared to be the m o n o c h r o m e directed-beam screen, a type of
screen which produces precise outline drawings, similar to those prepared by
draughtsmen. But it has n o w been replaced by the colour roster-scan screen, on which
the image is formed dot by dot and line by line. T h e latter, which resembles our modern
television screen, is in fact m u c h more sophisticated that the former. Firstly, it possesses
greater definition, since it is c o m m o n to see images of 1024 by 1024 points. But more
importantly, such screens are linked to an elaborate computer device with image
storage and specialized processors taking over the basic graphics functions.
The designer can thus communicate with his model using instruments for data
input. H e can do this with a 'mouse', a tablet with cursor, a lightpen, a light program
function keyboard, etc., to indicate to the system the action he wants carried out o n the
model. According to the type of instrument used, he will detect a position, a m o v e m e n t
on the screen or even directly the presence of a graphic primitive. The system will take
this action into account to produce the required transformation on the model.
A structured dialogue
If graphics equipment is necessary to establish a dialogue between the designer and the
system, it is even more important to be able to use a communications protocol which is
friendly and adapted to the task of the designer. T o achieve this, it is imperative not to
135
Jean Sequeira
succumb to the temptation of defining numerous 'gadget' functions that will merely
serve to confuse this dialogue.
The transition from one function of the system to another is usually effected
through a m e n u . The m e n u offers a certain number of options to the user, the selection
of one of which has an effect on the model or refers to another m e n u . O n e of the
difficulties in developing a C A D system lies precisely in the w a y the levels are
established and regrouped within the functions of the system, in order to obtain a
simple and coherent dialogue.
Between the geometric model and the image on the screen, the system will effect a
series of transformations which will structure the man-machine communication. This
will enable the designer to observe his model simultaneously from various angles,
depending o n the value of the visualization parameters and the type of representation.
A n important function to achieve this is coupling, which consists of visualizing only
that part of the model which is contained in a subspace which will usually be a
parallelepiped, in three dimensions, or a rectangular window, in two dimensions.
The visualization of three-dimensional objects (see figure 1)
The most classic representation in C A D is sketching the outline of the model, after it
has been projecfed onto the plan of the screen, in order to obtain an outline drawing
which we term a 'wire-frame' representation. However, if the model is somewhat
complex, the image will rapidly become unreadable; it will then be necessary to
eliminate those lines, or parts of lines, that are not visible from the observing point.
Generally, if w e want to obtain a realistic representation of the model on a roster-
scan screen, it is necessary to pinpoint which point of the image belongs to which
element of the model. This is, in one way or another, the problem of hidden parts
elimination. Algorithms provide the solution to this problem but are too expensive and
too slow to be systematically used in a computer-aided design application.
It is sometimes useful for the designer to have as realistic an image as possible. Thus
colour and texture parameters should be integrated so that the system can compute
such an image.
Graphics workstations
Current C A D systems tend to physically separate the tasks of modelling from those of
man-machine communication, by having the latter performed on graphics terminals. It
is no longer a matter of simple terminals, but rather graphics work-stations equipped
with highly specialized architecture and on which it is possible to program graphics
functions of a high standard.
Modelling
The article to be designed is defined by a mathematical model whose parameters are

adjusted by the user. This model forms the basis of all the operations of the system, from
the outline of the object to the control of its manufacture, undergoing, in between,
mechanical or electrical simulation tests for example to check for accuracy.
However, there is no such thing as universal modelling, but rather types of
modelling according to the nature of the article to be produced. In fact, the problem
which occurs is not of the same nature when wc wish to represent a printed circuit, an
136
(cl
Figure I Examples of C A D application. These images were produced on an

I B M 5080 graphical work station with the permission of
IBM-France.
(a) Realistic impression of a three-dimensional m o d e l of a satellite
(developed in co-operation with Boeing)
(b) Solving a piping problem with C A D (using a software C A T I A ;
by permission of Dassault Systèmes)
(c) Design of a mechanical part for a clutch system (using C A D A M
software)
(d) The use of C A D in electronics in the design of printed circuits.
aircraft wing, a building or a car engine. Below, w e shall describe the m a i n types of
modelling used in C A D .
Articles defined by 'boundary representation''
This concerns the m o s t 'natural' or at least the m o s t c o m m o n w a y in mathematics of

depicting polyhedric volumes. Every geometric element forming the m o d e l is defined
137
by its boundary representation, that is the surfaces, curves or the points limiting it in
space. Thus, each polyhedron will be considered as a set of polygons, the polygons as a
set of lines and the lines as pairs of vertices.
W e can observe that in this type of representation the geometric information is
presented in a redundant way. For example, all the lines are portrayed twice, since the
boundary between two adjacent polygons is formed by the same line. Rather than being
a weakness, this redundancy is, in fact, an essential element of strength for a C A D
system, since it tests the consistency of the model. Very often, this type of modelling is
used in C A D software in thefieldof mechanics and public works.
Articles defined by constructive solid geometry
In this approach, the model of an object is developed through a series of logic

operations on basic volumes called primitives. The user manipulates these primitives as
if he had the parts of a construction set in his hands. But with the computer, he benefits
from having a m u c h m o r e powerful tool.
T h e primitives of a C A D system of the constructive solid geometry type are defined
as geometric entities whose dimensions will be determined by the user: it could be, for
example, a cylinder whose parameters are the radius and the height. The operations on
these primitives are not limited to mere assembly which, mathematically speaking,
corresponds to the union of two volumes whose intersection is null. The designer could,
in this w a y , use all the basic logic operations to construct his model, in particular, to
hollow out solid sections, to drill threaded holes or machine-finish jagged angular
edges.
Representation of surfaces known as 'free form
The hull of a boat, the fuselage of an aircraft, an artificial heart, a telephone or a shoe are
just s o m e of m a n y objects that cannot be modelled by one of the two approaches
described above. They are not, in fact, polyhedric volumes and their surfaces, even
though fairly regular, cannot be compared to a cone or a cylinder.
These objects will be modelled using 'free-form surfaces'. These surfaces defined by
parametric representation can be pulled out of shape like a rubber sheet using points
k n o w n as control points. Various types of surface makes it possible to produce different
kinds of deformation. T h e most c o m m o n l y used at present are Bézier surfaces,
developed for the design of car bodywork, and 'B-spline surfaces' which enable the
designer to effect topical changes on the model.
C A D perspectives
The b o o m in C A D during the last few years has to be considered from various points of
view. In fact, if it has been decisive in the development of large-scale projects, its
evolution in thefieldof small-scale computer application has been all the more marked.
This evolution promises a far wider use of computer tools in the design of industrial
products in small and medium-sized firms, and this will bring benefits in terms of
creativity a n d profitability. In addition, the introduction of artificial intelligence into
C A D software should, in the near future, offer the designer a high-level dialogue with
the machine. •
138
Mechanics, electronics
and computer science:
their integration in
manufacturing
Bruno Rebaglia and Sergio Sartori
Recent advances in thefieldsof electronics, optics and computer science are enabling
manufacturing industries to carry out a radical reorganization of their factory systems.
The truly integrated management of all stages of production has now become a reality.
Competitiveness in industry will, in thefuture, depend less on labour costs and more on this
reorganization, and the capital invested in it.
Starting with the energy crisis of the early 1970s, the major manufacturing industries of
the developed countries have had to deal with a n u m b e r of problems that have seemed
to spell their gradual decline in terms of competitiveness and profitability.
T h e keys to regaining these lost positions have been: improving the quality of their
product, increasing the productivity of plants, and quickening responsiveness to
marketplace trends.
In the fight to satisfy these n e w d e m a n d s the devices m a d e possible by micro-
electronic technologies and methods developed in the computer sciences have played a
fundamental role. It is rather difficult in this framework to m a k e a clear-cut distinction
between ' d e m a n d pulling' due to sophisticated application needs in manufacturing, and
'technology pushing' due to more and m o r e complex devices being developed in the
electronics sector.
Whatever the reason manufacturing industries have been able to render practically
affordable n e w producing processes that m a k e use of completely unusual 'tools', such
as chemical-physical and electro-optical technologies (lasers for cutting, drilling and
machining, for instance), and start a profound reorganization at the very foundations of
industrial production systems. This article basically deals with the latter point.
Yesterday's factory
T h e Taylor Principle o n the division of work has constituted one of the references
adopted in workshop organization in the past. T h e production system w a s seen as a
Bruno Rebaglia graduated in Electrical Engineering at the Politécnico di Torino, and since 1974 has been
full-time researcher at the Istituto di Metrología of the Italian National Research Council ( C N R ) , where he
currently leads the Electronic Instrumentation G r o u p . His main interests are in the design and development
of data acquisition systems and new apparatus for measurement and control.
Sergio Sartori is Professor of Electrical Measurement at the Politécnico di Torino and a reseacher at the
Istituto di Metrología, where he heads the Computing Centre. H e is a Unesco consultant in metrology and
related problems and is the author of over 70 publications in thisfield.The authors m a y be contacted at the
following address: Istituto di Metrología " G . Colonnetti", Strada delle Cacee, 73. 10135 Torino, Italy.
139 Impact of science on society, no. 146, 139-147

Bruno Rebaglio and Sergio Sartori
collection of acts a n d elementary parts, connected only because each w a s a function of

the previous one. R a w material a n d partly-finished product storage, the design, the
working schedule definition, the machining, the inspection—all were in some w a y
independent acts. T h e overall vision of the process w a s under the charge of the various
managers responsible, o n the basis of information collected along the w a y , generally
later rather than sooner, and with a considerable feedback lag.
In particular, machining w a s entrusted to single workstations, each of them
strongly specialized, operating in series and rigidly scheduled.
A s a consequence, cost saving w a s confined to the introduction of m a s s production,
since this was the only w a y to cut d o w n the high plant investment.
T h e product w a s inspected for quality at the end of certain machining cycles, and
often only at thefinalstage. This sometimes resulted in a large number of rejected parts,
because it was not possible to intervene quickly to modify the process in the presence of
faults.
T h e only w a y to reduce spoilt products was to use high-quality machine tools: in
other words machines rigid in their functions, but good from the point of view of their
geometrical performance.
Failure to consider the manufacturing system as a unified whole had led to s o m e
negative experience. M o s t efforts to increase the cost-effectiveness of manufacturing
had been directed at optimizing its bits and pieces, resulting in the far from optimal
performance of the system. Also, most m a n a g e m e n t attention was directed towards the
effect of labour costs o n the unit cost of the product, while equally important
manufacturing support costs received poor attention.
Computer-aided techniques
In workshop organization, the Taylor Principle started to be overcome with the

establishment of computer-aided techniques. These techniques are intended to
introduce the use of the computer 'tool' into all manufacturing activities, aiming to
optimize separately each production stage.
Computer-aided design ( C A D ) furnishes engineers with methods which apply the

computer to the creation and modification of products design (see table 1, and article
by Sequeira in this issue). C A D systems allow one to reduce design time, to revise drafts
Table 1 Different types of CAD systems currently available.
Drafting systems—which enable the user to plot drafts on paper, but with no computing facility
on graphic database. Are generally based on personal computers.
Two-dimensional (2D) design systems—which offer higher performance in terms of geometrical

modelling, computing features and drafts management. Are generally based on mini
computers.
Three-dimensional (3D) design systems—which provide the user operations in 3 dimensional

space. Are generally based on super-mini computers.
Mixed design systems (2D + 3D) -which couple the ease of use of 2 D systems with the
performance of 3 D . They offer the most advanced solution for C A D systems.
140
Integration in manufacturing
automatically, to store product specifications in a database, and to simulate the

movements of mechanical parts. They m a k e use of some outstanding features offered
by computers:
— high-resolution graphics monitors, able to display the most complex images;

— high computing speed, which allows a near real-time interaction between
designer and workstation;
high storage power.
Typical features of an advanced C A D system m a y be summarized as follows:
Geometrical modelling This provides design engineers with a complete geometric

representation of a part or assembly. With simple interactive c o m m a n d s the user can
create solid models of products and components and display them on his monitor,
starting from basic geometric shapes, such as spheres, cones and toroids. After the solid
model is created with the design tools, the modelling feature permits the user to rotate
the object, view it from different angles, 'explode' it, create cross-sections and check for
interference with related parts, generate dimensional data and product specifications.
Automated drafting Automated drafting automatically creates a technical draft

(orthogonal views, cross-sections, etc.) starting from the object generated by geometric
modelling. Also dimensioning is fairly easy, since the system can calculate the distance
between any two parallel lines and place the measurement in a specific location on the
drawing.
Obviously the designer can operate a C A D system, starting with creation of the
three orthogonal views of an object and then using the modelling features later on to
examine and test the finished product.
Computer-aided engineering C A E provides engineers with a means of using the

computer for evaluating and testing a product design. T h e user can obtain additional
information about the object, deduced from its geometrical shape and eventually from
the knowledge of the materials that will be used for producing it. Finite element
modelling and analysis techniques have a great interest in this respect: after designing a
part or assembly with C A D tools, a user can generate and submit to structural analysis
a finite element model of the part. A C A E system allows one to display results
graphically, for instance evidencing stresses and showing the level and shape of induced
deformations.
Another very important feature of a C A E system allows the simulation of a
machining process. T h e system permits the engineer to preview interactively and
graphically on the work-station monitor the tool path and m a k e special modifications,
as a function both of the tool type and the number and arrangement of axes in the
machine tool that will be employed on the factory floor. B y visually evaluating the tool
path, the user can reduce the number of scrap parts, especially those requiring
expensive materials.
Computer-aided manufacturing C A M provides design engineers with methods by

which computers m a y be used for planning, controlling and setting up machining
stations.
141
At one time, C A M simply involved machine tools that were guided by numerical
control (NC) tapes prepared on a computer. Today, C A M encompasses a variety of
specialized systems able to deal with all the problems concerning machining as well as
assembling and controlling products. C A M includes: fully-automated N C machine
tools, machining centres, transfer machines, material handling equipment, guided
vehicles, robots (for pick and place, assembling and machining), quality control
equipment and automatic measuring machines.
Each of these systems carries out a number of complex activities; they all need and
benefit from the manipulation and controlling abilities offered by computer science and
technology.
Fromflexiblemanufacturing systems to computer-integrated

manufacturing
In the previous section we briefly sketched a picture of a production process in which

different h u m a n operators make intensive use of computer science and apply electronic
tools in all stages of the process, from design and drawing through to quality control of
the end product.
Today these tools m a y be brought to a high level of sophistication and the dizzy
progress of microelectronics in a near future will put at our disposal more and more
complex solutions, with decreasing costs in terms of money, power consumption, size
and reliability.
There is therefore an obvious advantage in proceeding towards a gradual
integration of the computing functions carried out by the various elements that
contribute to manufacturing. Afirstaim, although somewhat modest, is to obtain a
completely automatic transfer of the c o m m o n database used by each element to carry
out its o w n function. This feature allows one to avoid useless and tedious reinputting of
data. A second aim. m u c h more ambitious, is for the real-time knowledge of each
element's behaviour within the system to be used to modify and control the behaviour
of all the other elements of the system.
Integration of various specialized elements embraced within C A M brought the
concept of theflexiblemanufacturing system ( F M S ) ; integration of C A D , C A E and
C A M tools led to the concept of computer integrated manufacturing (CIM).
A n F M S consists of a variety of manufacturing stations, general purpose or
specialized, physically connected to each other by an automatic conveying system. All
stations work under the management and control of a computer. Each station is
supplied with an automatic system for loading and unloading parts, and eventually
with a system for automatic tool replacement. In addition to these features, which
describe a system capable of operating totally or partially unmanned, there are some
others which m a k e up its 'flexibility'. First of all, the system as a whole can recognize
and accept different parts with stochastic input and can accordingly rearrange and
optimize its internal flow of materials and processing. Moreover, an F M S can permit a
slight decrease in performance as a consequence of the failure of certain elements
without entirely blocking production. Finally, availability of automatic measuring
stations and the use of decision-making algorithms on-line allow one to monitor the
state of the system continuously and to immediately generate alternative choices and
counteracting mechanisms.
142
In CI M a computer of higher hierarchical level manages and optimizes the design

and simulation activities of C A D - C A E tools with the manufacturing and machining
facilities of an F M S . So all the elements within a C I M share a c o m m o n database
holding an extremely large amount of information. All the phases of the manufacturing
process n o w lie under computer control, and the user can draw the various components
of a product and simulate both their assembly and their cinematic and dynamic
behaviour; he can define specifications automatically and set up part programs for
machining tools; all this information is used by the F M S to arrange the flow of
manufacturing parts and assembly subsets in the best way.
Today's technology can accomplish this picture of broad integration in m a n u -
facturing; nevertheless its set-up and diffusion will be a slow and gradual process, owing
to certain application problems related to integration; the need to examine production
planning in its entirety as a function-cf integration, in order to correctly evaluate its
cost-effectiveness ratio; and the difficulties of cultural development and the rise in both
the concern on management and workers.
Problems of integration
Problems of the application of integration m a y be divided into:
— system problems, related to the need to connect a large number of devices from
different manufacturers, each requiring an extremely close mesh of connections
to all the others in order to allow the correct behaviour of the whole system;
— technological problems, related to the enormous amount of information to be
treated with very fast data transfer within a many-computer distributed
network, with real-time access to mass storage devices and with on-line data
processing.
A n y underestimate of the system problems must be avoided, since they require both
agreements a m o n g m a n y conflicting interests at the manufacturer's level, and the
drafting of a large number of international standards. Standardization itself is a rather
difficult matter when one is dealing in a rapidly evolving framework such as computer
networking.
It has been shown that the outstanding feature of a fully integrated factory is
distributed information, allowing close connection between the elements of the system.
In such an environment all the processing functions and related managerial functions
are expressed in the form of data; these data are in a form that m a y be generated,
transformed, used and stored by computer technology, and these data have to m o v e
freely between functions in the system. System problems are basically related to
methods permitting this free data movement.
The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) has defined a model for
distributed computer networks, which is called the O p e n Systems Interconnection
(OSI) model.
The O S I model subdivides the total communication process into seven layers and
allocates specific functions to each layer (table 2). The O S I standard also defines each
of the interfaces between the layers. A major benefit of this standard is that it permits
changes of implementation within a layer. Providing the interfaces above and below the
layer are maintained, a change to one layer has no effect on the others.
143
Table 2 The Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) model for distributed

computer networks.
Layers Functions
User program Application program (not part of the O S I model)

Layer 7—Application Provides all services directly comprehensible to application
programs
Layer 6 --Presentation Restructures data to/from standardized format used within the
network
Layer 5 --Session N a m e address translation, access security; synchronize and
manage data
Layer 4 -—Transport Provides transparent reliable data transfer from end node to end
node
Layer 3 --Network Performs message routing for data transfer between non-adjacent
nodes
Layer 2 -- D a t a link Improves error detection rate for messages between adjacent nodes
Layer 1- —Physical Encodes and physically transfers messages between adjacent nodes
In 1983 General M o t o r s initiated a public forum for users wishing to define a single
communication standard for manufacturing automation. T h e project, called M a n u -
facturing Automation Protocol ( M A P ) , has rapidly gathered strong support. M A P
employs the O S I model a n d plans to identify an acceptable standard in each layer.
Table 3 s h o w s the present M A P choices for standards and draft documents in each
layer of the O S I model.
T h e spread of M A P working groups not only in the United States but in all the most
industrialized countries is m o s t encouraging for the solution of the system problems in
the fully integrated factory.
A s far as technological problems are concerned, they constitute an exciting
challenge for applied research all over the world. Without entering into technical detail,
w e m a y mention certain special research efforts including:
— the employment offibre-opticlinks in computer networks, aimed at achieving a

high transfer rate a n d avoiding electromagnetic interference;
— the use of optical technique for m a s s storage (video discs and holographic
memories), in order to realize c o m p a c t and fast addressable devices;
Table 3 Summary of Manufacturing Automation Protocol (MAP)

specifications, by layer.
Layers Functions
User program —
Layer 7—Application I S O case kernal D P 8650; EIA RS511 I S O / D P 8571
Layer 6—Presentation N o n e at this time; future I S O / D P 8223
Layer 5—Session I S O Session kernal—ISO/IS 8326; ISO/IS 8327
Layer 4—Transport I S O Transport class 4 ISO/DIS 8072; I S O / D I S 8073
Layer 3—Network I S O Internet support—ISO Draft 8473 connection bus
Layer 2—Data link Link level control connection bus type 1; ISO/DIS 8202.2
Layer 1—Physical Token access, broad band media or base band media—
ISO DIS 8802.4
144
— the development of super-computers and parallel computing techniques, aimed

at real-time processing of large amount of data.
Manufacturing resources planning
The general notion of integration computer control and managing function aims to
progressively accomplish all manufacturing activities. This means that the following
are all taken into account:
the administration of orders and supplies;

— the organization of time and methods in production;
— the harmonization of all activities concerning both marketing and after-sales
service.
Having at one's disposal ordered and complete information on every area of an

enterprise, it is possible to take decisions at all levels with a single objective in mind.
This allows the management to formulate coherent plans, whilst overcoming
adversarial relationships due to a proliferation of decision-making centres.
There are very complex mathematical methods, based on queue theory and linear
programming, which provide optimum solutions to the problem of resource planning.
Nevertheless, when one is dealing with enormous enterprises, with hundreds of
machining tools, thousands of workers, millions of different parts and practically
countless possible paths, then absolute optimization techniques are not really feasible.
O n the other hand, since the ultimate goal is competitiveness, global Manufactur-
ing Resource Planning ( M R P 2 ) via computer integrated networks can rationalize and
reduce production costs, even favouring the automated set-up of reports on progress in
elementary machining functions, on storehouses, on orders to be completed, and so on.
Moreover, in this framework it m a y be easy to achieve a preventive simulation of the
results of reorganization and an analytical evaluation of productivity of single divisions
or units.
As a whole, the system provides both a reduction of (raw materials, semi-finished
andfinishedparts, etc.) and a faster responsiveness to changes in market requirements.
T o m a k e this clearer, let us examine the case of a car manufacturer. Let us assume
that it wishes to serve a large range of buyers, from those wanting a small, cheap car to
those aiming at a high performance one. T o respond to the market demands the
industry plans to produce for instancefivetypes of car; each one will be then produced
in six versions (different in engine capacity, type of fuel used, etc.) and will be offered
with an extended range of options.
Afirststep towards global resources organization is product planning. This might
be defined, in a simple but non-exhaustive way, as the s u m of choices enabling the
production of a product in a wide variety of types and models, but making use of as
small a number of different components as possible. For instance, once it has been
decided that an entire range of diesel engines will be produced, and in order to comply
with the market demands (from 3 to 6 cylinders, of aspirated or injection type, of very
different power rate, etc.), it would be extremely useful to be able to produce them all
just in time and employing a single manufacturing line.
If the engine has been correctly planned, all the different types will use equally
spaced crankcases, unified pistons, valves and connecting rods. Obviously product
145
planning cost effectiveness is strictly dependent u p o n a suitableflexibilityof

manufacturing.
Once the product has been correctly envisaged, M R P 2 techniques allow further
reduction of production costs through the rationalization of:
— the design of single components, carried out with a 'group' technique, which
makes use of a database in which are classified and archived the components of
the same type already designed, the elementary machining actions already
optimized, the functional relationships with related elements already tested, etc.;
— elementary manufacturing actions, carried out using production strategies

based on 'classes' of machining actions and with flows and rhythms optimized
according to both the class and the machining tools actually available;
— assembly subsets, carried out according to typology of'sequences', with timing

strictly related to the consistency of orders and availability of stocks.
A n optimum M R P 2 level will allow one, in principle, to base all the factory
organization on Just In Time (JIT) 'customer likes' techniques: each buyer will define
the properties of the car he or she likes, and only those cars actually ordered will be
produced (with the exception of a few for dealer stocking purposes). Each car thus
represents an absolutely unique item, whilst at the same time maintaining all the
attributes of a volume product in terms of cost, production rate, and standards of
quality.
Conclusions
W e have tried in this article to describe the most outstanding changes that are n o w
occurring in manufacturing industries. Four technological aspects contribute to m a k e
these changes possible.
First of all, the availability of low-cost digital techniques for automation must be
considered. Without digital techniques it is practically impossible to obtain the
necessary information, to transmit it and to process it with the aim of taking fast
decisions. This means having at one's disposal relatively cheap fast computers with
large memories.
In second place we must take the recently developed capability to use m a n y of the
new technologies within automation. Electronics, optics and computer science have to
be added to the more traditional mechanical techniques; their integration must be
ensured both within different production sectors and through the involvement of a
wider range of specialists.
The consequence of this integration of different technologies results in tighter links
between the machine tool and other systems traditionally not related, such as
conveyors, communication systems, and unusual machining andfinishingtechniques.
This is the third aspect: integration implies acquiring the capability to unify different
manufacturing stages.
' Finally w e must consider the development of computer software. T o the software,
ever simpler to use, is linked not only the obvious function of acquiring, transmitting
and processing data and of supporting decision-making behaviour models. This last
146
aspect probably has a significance not yet fully appreciated; the behavioural model,
maintained by means of equations written within a computer program, offers
flexibility, modifiability and adaptability far different from that which can be obtained
when models are exclusively produced by mechanical systems (machine tools with very
good geometrical and structural performance, for instance).
T h e integrated factory can be imagined today as a system where experience is
continuously growing and this experience is used to modify and improve the model on
which the whole process is based. A s such, it is a high dynamic system, whose
capabilities develop strictly according to the amount of knowledge it is able to
accumulate.
Finally, the factory of tomorrow m a y be described as the amalgam of m a n y
components (design and development of the product, stores, machining centres,
inspection centres, packing and shipping, marketing and after sales support of the
product) all existing today at a high level of maturity. Integration adds a n e w value to
this ensemble; it can be considered as unified management both of information
concerning a single component, and of choices regarding their behaviour. T h e decision-
making process is not confined to ensuring the best performance of a single element
itself, but is based on an optimum behaviour model fixed for the whole system.
Particular attention should be devoted to educational and training problems.
Integration in manufacturing requires technicians with a wide spectrum of skills: a
profound knowledge of computer science and the ability to interact constructively with
specialists from other disciplines (economists, marketing and services experts, and so
on). Schools will have to engage themselves in major efforts of reorganization while
society as a whole will have to meet the difficult problems of rapid turnover, and
providing new qualifications for people leaving their traditional employment.
Competitiveness of industrial products in the future will be less related to labour
costs and will be largely determined by manufacturing organization, so that a
fundamental role will be played by the availability of capital investment for this
purpose. This fact could create further difficulties for the economy of developing
countries, which traditionally have matched the high technology of the industrialized
nations with the low cost of their abundant manpower. •
147
Robots:
their present-day use
and prospects for
the future
Elisabeth Filemon
The history of the machine represents not only an engrossing treatment of the machines
themselves, how they work and what their uses are, but also a chronicle of the men who
invented, improved, manufactured and applied them. There is no doubt that as the world
enters a new industrial era as the result of a high-technology based robotics 'revolution',
we need to think about both the technical and social aspects of the state-of-the-art, the
practice and the changes to be expected.
A distinguishing feature of our age is the unprecedented speed in the development of

science and technology. But if w e look at this process a little m o r e closely w e see that
there are significant characteristics to be found which are not unique in the history of
machines. W h e n formulating our notion o n robotics, as indicated by the title of this
article, let us take the clock as a typical example of a machine at its various stages of
development. Today, in this age of computers, w e see a marked symbolism in the fact
that the mechanics of the clock have given w a y to electronics in the search for greater
accuracy.
A question of terminology
O n e of the difficulties in establishing the date at which the

first mechanical clock was designed is a purely semantic one,
since Latin, Italian, French, English, G e r m a n , etc. languages
all use a single w o r d to denote both mechanical and water
clocks.
Unfortunately there is n o international agreement on the definition of an industrial

robot (IR). M a n u a l manipulators and fixed-sequence robots are included in figures
given for the degree of robotization in Japan, whereas only variable-sequence robots,
playback robots, numerically controlled robots and intelligent robots are counted in
Dr Elisabeth Filemon is Professor of Technical Mechanics at the Technical University of Budapest. She
holds a number of offices at national level in her subject of mechanical engineering, and in addition is
Secretary-General of the International Federation for the Theory of Machines a m d Mechanics ( I F T o M M )
and President of the Robotics Working Group of the Union of International Technical Associations (UITA).
Dr Filemon's work includes her being programme co-ordinator of the postgraduate courses in Robotics
offered by the I N C C A Centre in Budapest. Her address is: Technical University of Budapest, M M 131
Budapest Pf 91, 1521 Hungary.
149 Impact of science on society, no. 146, 149-160

Elisabeth Filemon
the U S A . This has led to a lack of comparability in certain statistics. If industrial robot
application in Europe is considered, thefiguresare even more confused and scattered.
W o r k on standardization started as soon as IRs proved themselves to be a powerful
means of production. The term 'robot' was unanimously agreed upon by Working
G r o u p 1 of 1 S O / T C / 1 8 4 / S C 2 in December 1984: "In c o m m o n language, a robot is a
machine which can be programmed to perform tasks which involve manipulative or
locomotive actions under automatic control."... and, " A manipulating IR is a
multiapplication machine, with or without locomotion, for use in industrial
applications."... with the comments: "Reprogrammable: capable of modifying the
programmed motion or auxiliary function without physical alteration; Multiappli-
cation: can be adapted to different applications with physical alteration; Physical
alteration: alteration of the mechanical structure or control unit except for changing
programming cassettes and/or read only m e m o r y ( R O M ) . " These definitions were
formulated by the U S A , the United Kingdom, the Federal Republic of Germany,
Sweden, France and Japan. A glossary is n o w under way, dealing with those terms
directly concerned with the manipulating IR.
There is plenty of information available on robotics, but statistical data tend to
have been adjusted, estimated or forecasted, and are therefore not wholly reliable. Let
us consider for example three papers from reliable sources. In these publications the
number of installed robots for 1984 are given as 44 000,64 657 and 71 825 for Japan and
13 000, 14400, 12 211 for the U S A . For this reason statisticalfiguresshould only be
regarded as indicative and the source must be both recent and carefully chosen. In
certain countries, for example Sweden, no survey has ever been carried out.
A milestone on the way to development
The distinguishing component of the mechanical clock is the

escapement, which controls the constant motion of the hand;
the other components, such as cog-wheels, axles and the
weight driving the machine, have been k n o w n since ancient
time.
There were three technologies born during or after World W a r II that were crucial
to successful robotics: servo mechanisms, digital computation and solid state
electronics. O n e of Unimation's important decisions was to use solid state devices in its
controller design at a time w h e n vacuum-tube components would have been
substantially cheaper.
With these means, thefirstIRs were developed for material handling. A decade later
there were only 200 IRs in use in the U S A and only a negligible number used elsewhere
in the world. Roughly ten years on, in 1982, the world robot population was 35 000
(18 000 in Japan, 6200 in the U S A , 7200 in Western Europe, 3000 in the U S S R , and 600
in Eastern Europe).
Evolution or revolution?
Only half a century after thefirstmechanical clocks had

appeared, very complicated ones were being built, testifying
to both sound craftmanship and a good understanding of
150
Robots —their use and prospects
astronomical mathematics. But the development was not as

sudden as it m a y seem. At this time there was already a long-
established clockmaking tradition, that had begun with
water clocks.
The word 'revolution' m a y seem inappropriate when associated with an amalgam

of such different disciplines as mechanics, electronics, control, computer science,
artificial intelligence, and so on—in a word: robotics. T h e IR represents part of an
evolution because it is just another piece of automated equipment in the history of
manufacturing technology. But for thefirsttime in the history of mankind a machine—
the IR—could be a perfect substitute for workers. F r o m this point of view, intelligent
robots could indeed be considered as revolutionary.
As far as the attitude of our society toward robots is concerned one cannot but
admire their ability and promise to take over dangerous, unpleasant and demeaning
work, to perform work by c o m m a n d indefatigably with precision and no protest.
Thinking beyond industrial applications, prospects for the future include walking
machines: robots in offices, hospitals and warehouses; domestic robots, cleaning and
sweeping robots; robots o n farms for agricultural work;firedetection and extinction
robots; and educational robots. The oceans, mines and space also offer special
environments in which robots m a y be of great service. Artificial limbs for the
handicapped also belong to the family of robots in a wider sense.
First-generation robot systems
T h e appearance of the mechanical clock in thefirsthalf of the

fourteenth century opened up a n e w era in tool technology.
U p to the sixteenth century progress being m a d e in the
development of the clock strongly stimulated the crafts, led
to the invention of new machine elements and caused a new
branch of technology to be developed: precision mechanics.
The majority of IRs in use today are 'deaf, d u m b and blind', with little or n o
computer power. They can 'learn' a sequence of manipulating actions, choreographed
by a h u m a n operator using a 'teach-box'. T h e environment around them must be
prearranged to accommodate their actions. Precise workpiece positioning, care in
specific spatial relationships with other machines, and safety considerations for people
and equipment nearby are all required. The increase in productivity, quality of product
and working life more than make up for the costs incurred in satisfying these
conditions, however.
Future applications in material handling, quality control and assembly work will
require more intelligent behaviour of robot systems in the future.
The second generation
T h e appearance of thefirstspring-driven clock and thereby

the first pocket watch challenged craftsmen working in
precision mechanics to develop even more precise and still
smaller elements. T h e demand for high-quality materials
151
Elisabeth Filemon
also increased sharply and in the search for better material

for the clock spring, a n e w kind of steel w a s found. This
resulted not only in great progress in precision mechanics
but also in design, particularly in all areas of mechanical
engineering.
Second-generation robots have been around us for some 15 or 20 years. The addition of
a relatively inexpensive computer processor to the robot controller led to a robot with
the capability of performing in real-time the calculations required to control the
motions of each degree-of-freedom in a co-operative manner and thus effect smooth
motions of the 'hand' along a predetermined path in space.
S o m e degree of adaptibility to the environment was achieved by the integration
into the robot system of some simple force, torque and proximity sensors. Major
applications include spot welding, paint spraying and arc welding, all operations that
are part of automated manufacturing and some assembly. The use of lightweight
composite materials for building robot arms is an important factor because it allows
higher speeds and acceleration. High absolute accuracy is very difficult to achieve,
though direct driven axes can help the elimination of clearance, backlash and hysteresis
in the drive system. Repeatability is m u c h better in the industrial robots n o w on the
market. Interchangeable grippers and standardization would n o w be a step forward.
Research in robot sensing capabilities has two main branches: sensor physics and the
reduction of data to meaningful information; and the intelligent use of sensory data in
IR applications. It is highly desirable that even more adaptability be provided by the
full use of available sensors and m o r e computer power.
The third generation
F r o m the late Middle Ages up to the early nineteenth

century, the development of the mechanical clock w a s
characterized by the interaction between science (mainly
mathematics and technology) and practical application.
Over the years this process has had a great influence in both
directions.
Third-generation robot systems are characterized by the incorporation of multiple

computer processors, each performing specific functions asynchronously. Each low-
level processor receives signals o n internal position and velocity and is part of the
servosystem controlling that degree-of-freedom. A master computer co-ordinates the
action or each degree-of-freedom. T h e hierarchical level of present-day robot
programming is still very low. Applications higher than joint level on-line programm-
ing are rare.
Universal IRs are intended for a broad range of uses and are capable of performing
varied technological operations, of both main and auxiliary nature. Robotization has
had a stimulating effect on the development of each branch of technology involved in
auxiliary operations. The full potential of third-generation robot systems will not be
achieved for some while to come, in spite of the fact that they have already been
available for the past few years.
152
Robots—their use and prospects
Adaptive robot systems
The n e w prime mover, the spring-driven clockwork mechan-

ism, w a s soon used to power automata of various sorts.
Mechanical toys of all kinds were spring-driven up to the
arrival of miniature motors.
The trend of robotization is closely linked with the development of other n e w

manufacturing and process technologies such asflexiblemanufacturing systems,
computer-integrated manufacturing and computer-controlled machinery.
The adaptive, communicative robot system, namely a third-generation robot
equipped with one or more external sensors, interfaced with other machines and
communicating with other computers, could be considered as showing some character-
istics of intelligent behaviour. T h e major functional elements of such an intelligent
system are: its ability to adapt to its immediate environment by sensing changes or
differences from prespecified standard conditions and by computing, in real time, the
conditions necessary for trajectories and/or manipulative actions; the capability of
interacting and communicating with associated devices (such as feeders and other
robots) or with other computers such that a smoothly integrated manufacturing system
can be implemented, incorporating fail-safe procedures and alternate courses of actions
to ensure production continuity.
During the next few years w e m a y expect rapid progress in the development of
sophisticated machine vision, and tactile and other sensory systems, with correspond-
ing increases in machine adaptability. After some 20 years of primary empirical
development including the conceptualization, debugging and analysis of computer
programmes, there are still only a few instances of the introduction of machine
intelligence technology into industry, and doubtless these can be considered as
'mechanistic' rather than 'intelligent' systems. T h e level of 'intelligence' will reside
primarily in the overall system design, and will be dependent upon the sophistication of
the master program that orchestrates and controls the individual actions of the
adaptive robot and other systems.
Industrial robots around the world
The clock quickly became something of a status symbol and

prominent m e n of the time were soon vying with each other
to install this novelty in their houses and public buildings.
Although the IR industry dates back to the end of the 1960s it is still in its infancy.
W h e n compared, for instance, with the machine tool industry, it is a somewhat
marginal one; the world IR output was only 3% that of world machine tools in 1982.
However, the IR industry is important—one might even say strategic—because it is
one with a very high growth potential; and it has become a symbol of factory
automation in general and thus has an indirect influence on the spread of computer-
aided design/computer-aided manufacturing ( C A D / C A M ) .
There is an important difference with respect to time between solutions which are
technically available and those that are actually widely used by industry. W h e n a
technical breakthrough occurs, there are always a few technically and financially
153
Elisabeth Filemon
Figure l
Japan
World market for USA

industrial robots in
1980, 1985 and Rest of World
.2 60-
projections for 1990.
1980 1985 1990
advanced companies—so-called 'leading-edge companies'—that will quickly adopt the

n e w technology. These companies play a strategic role in determining the speed a n d
direction of a technique's subsequent spread. (For example, S w e d e n exported 9 3 % of its
IR products in 1982; a n d N o r w a y produces 8 0 % of the world production of paint-
spraying robots.)
Characteristics and trends of the world market for IRs are given in figure 1 a n d
table 1. T h e leading countries, Japan a n d the U S A , are s h o w n in the former, whilst
table 1 includes the forecasts m a d e for a selection of countries. T h e projection for the
United K i n g d o m by 1990 m a y seem exaggerated, but it is based o n substantial current
governmental support.
T h e total world value of the IR market has been established and forecast for 1980,
1985 and 1990 as follows: ($ billion) 0-66, 3-45 a n d 9-75 respectively.
In terms of production of robots the characteristics and trends in selected countries
for 1985 a n d 1990 are given in table 2.
Table 1
"-„ of total value
World market in
industrial robots: 1985 Country 1985 1990 forecast
and 1990 {forecast). Japan 62-3 45-6
USA 12 9 21-5
Federal Republic of Germany 10-4 9-7
United Kingdom 5-8 14-6
Sweden 2-2 1-8
Italy 2-6 2-3
Others 3-8 4-5
1000 1000
154
Table 2 Production of industrial robots: 1985 and 1990 (forecast).
1985 1990 forecast
Value Value
Country Units ($ million) Units ($ million!
Japan 31000 2150 57500 4450
USA 7700 445 31300 2100
Federal Republic of G e r m a n y 5000 360 12000 950
United K i n g d o m 3000 200 21500 14200
Sweden 2300 90 5000 180
Italy 1250 75 3500 225
France 1000 50 2800 150
Norway 1000 50 2000 103
The robot population is estimated to reach 70 000 units in Japan, 20 000 in the U S A ,
and 28400 in Europe, respectively, by 1990 (see figure 2).
Changes in the low- and high-grade robot share of the total annual production of
IRs are given in figure 3. This clearly shows the trend towards the production of high-
grade robots (at relatively higher cost).
The numbers of IR producers were estimated as being about 250 in Japan, 50 in the
U S A and 50 in Europe. O f the Japanese producers some 80 were for internal
production only. In 1982 6 5 % of the whole production c a m e from 14 companies in
Japan; 80% from 6 companies in the U S A ; 9 0 % from 10 companies in the Federal
Republic of G e r m a n y ; and 8 0 % from a single manufacturer in S w e d e n .
Social aspects of robotization
T h e mechanical clock derives technically from the ancient

machine elements, but its spiritual roots lie in the regular life
led within the walls of the monasteries. Clocks rapidly spread
Figure 2 80
Growth in robot Japan

population, 1980 to
1990 (projected).
60-
40-
20-
1980 1985 1990
155
Elisabeth Filemon
Figure 3 Units Value
Total annual production

of industrial robots for
1980, 1985 and 1990
(projected) showing
proportions of low- and
high-grade machines.
1980 1985 1990 1980 1985 1990
:•:::•:: Low-grade robots ] High-grade robots
b e y o n d the monastery, a n d their regular striking gave a n e w

order to the craftsmen's and merchants' lives. T h e clock not
only helped to keep track of the hours, but also synchronized
the action of m e n ; the measuring of time turned into time
slavery, time estimating a n d time rationing.
Technology is normally the bearer of complex social a n d cultural systems a n d is

always accompanied b y cultural changes. W h a t is the role of robotics in the world of
w o r k a n d w h a t is in store?
O f the effects of IRs o n working conditions the most significant is the elimination of
m o n o t o n o u s and heavy m a n u a l w o r k , especially that carried out in unsafe, dirty a n d
hazardous conditions. R o b o t s are used in circumstances that increasingly fewer
workers are willing to accept a n d have taken over workplaces with particularly high
labour turnover, or night-shift w o r k . R o b o t s could m a k e manless night shifts feasible,
though so far this has rarely happened.
T h e extent of robotization can be measured by the n u m b e r of installed robots per
1 0 0 0 0 workers in manufacturing industries. In 1984 this I R 'density' w a s 123 in Japan,
70 in S w e d e n , 28 in Belgium, 27 in Italy, 16 in the Federal Republic of G e r m a n y , 15 in
the U S A a n d in France, a n d 9 in the United K i n g d o m . These figures clearly indicate
that IRs have so far affected only a relatively limited n u m b e r of workplaces in
156
manufacturing. The effects of IRs o n employment must be considered at plant level and
at the macro-economic level.
At the plant level, the IR is generally a direct replacement for h u m a n labour. Certain
jobs, mostly the monotonous and often hazardous ones, are being irretrievably lost in
the machine. In certain cases, robot application has indeed meant a dramatic reduction
in employment. It is also a fact that unskilled and semi-skilled jobs are potentially the
most affected by robotization. M a n y of these jobs are held by w o m e n and older
workers: two groups most vulnerable in the new manufacturing environment.
It has to be said that in the labour statistics a net labour displacement caused by
robotics cannot be shown. Probably the unemployment caused by IRs has been
negligible compared to national unemployment rates in certain parts of the world. In
the high-labour-cost countries there is a considerable incentive to use robots instead of
h u m a n labour. In the U S A , for example, the average robot in the car industry does the
work for $6 an hour, including depreciation and maintenance costs, while an hour in
wages and benefits for an average worker is $23-24.
A certain proportion of new jobs in research, design, production, marketing and
maintenance of IRs are being created, but these jobs are usually at a higher skill level
than the displaced workers possess; they are often in different locations and
concentrated in a few robot production firms. At the enterprise level the limitation of
overtime, flexible working hours, the marketing of n e w products and services,
expansion of production through a better competitive position and the retraining or
further training of workers, are all measures to keep workers in employment.
But on the other hand—at the macro-economic level—in the competitive world of
manufacturing, the obsolescence of industrial equipment can spell the death of an
undertaking. This is a far more serious threat to jobs than robotization. Obsolescence
finally causes the wholesale loss of jobs and the eventual disappearance of whole
undertakings—the providers of employment and income.
Since technical innovation is a continuing and more incremental than revolution-
ary process, w e should not be overly and exclusively concerned with short-term
economic and social considerations and with the present high unemployment figures.
Automation including robotization, with higher productivity in its wake, will be
urgently needed to maintain and hopefully raise our standard of living.
Furthermore, a great deal will depend on governments' industrial and technology
policies, which in an increasing number of countries are designed to promote
robotization with the object of enhancing international competitiveness. Measures
m a y include the financing of education, research and development, special training
programmes, tax incentives and promotional compaigns.
W h a t should the approach of robotization be?
Clocks nowadays are ubiquitous; most of us wear a wrist

watch, and have several clocks around us, both at h o m e and
at work. They are easy to use, in spite of their complexity.
Following on from the c o m m o n l y used quartz systems
atomic clocks are n o w under development.
Whether the robot is the result of an evolution or revolution, robotics technology will
outlive our present generation. It is the technology of the twenty-first century.
157
Elisabeth Filemon
A robotization strategy—at governmental level—can be divided into four stages:

education, diffusion, R & D and manufacturing. There m a y be overlapping of these
stages but emphasis should be placed o n each designated period of development. This
ensures that each new stage of robotization is built upon the strength of the previous
process, except that each stage, of course, has its o w n major emphasis and target.
Each country has its robotization strategy, but it is remarkable h o w the Japanese
approach differs from that of all others. T h e U S A and Europe have all started out
aggressively in industrial robot manufacturing, but only Japan has concentrated on
industrial robot diffusion, so as to gain experience of applications and to develop its
o w n industrial robots for internal use.
In Japan robotization has been encouraged at all levels, from Government right
d o w n to workers. Robotization has increased productivity, which in turn has increased
international competitiveness and has led to an increase in world market share.
Employment has been maintained at h o m e because of an increase in exports, thus
further encouraging Japan to robotize its industry.
Western countries by contrast have experienced something of a vicious circle,
because workers have tended to resist the introduction of robots in order to protect
their jobs. Since industries cannot robotize their production systems and wages
continue to escalate to keep up with inflation, so productivity drops and there is a loss
of competitiveness in the international market. This leads to a decrease in world market
share, the industries concerned have to cut d o w n their workforce to survive, and this in
turn leads to unemployment. Workers become more defensive and put further pressure
on the management not to introduce robotization because it will lead to more
unemployment in the short term. The result of this is a further drop in productivity, and
so the cycle repeats itself.
In terms of percentage of the total value of its exports, Japan continues to increase
its IR exports in a dramatic way. F r o m 1974 to 1980 it was about 3% per a n n u m , but it
rose very quickly to 6% in 1981, 14% in 1982 and 18% in 1983. Japan has planned to
develop robots for its clothing industry in order to have it compete with those in Asia.
Thus the success of robotization in Japan can be seen to affect not only the
industrialized world but also the developing countries.
Western Europe is working hard to catch up with Japan and the U S A in order to
increase its export competitiveness. During the rest of the 1980s most analysts believe
that robotics industries in Western Europe will grow faster than in Japan. IRs are
looked upon in Eastern Europe as one of the means of increasing productivity. The
Republic of Korea, China, Taiwan and Singapore are all carrying out robotics R & D ,
and perhaps production.
The technological choice m a d e by countries has a direct effect on their economic
growth and on their degree of technological dependence. The possibilities are there for
developing countries to absorb and assimilate foreign technology and to adopt this
technology at a later stage to their o w n needs.
Technological innovation through technology transfer implies relations between
an industrially advanced society that exports technology, and a less highly in-
dustrialized one that receives it. Yet even within the industrially advanced societies
themselves, the w a y in which technological innovation takes place often produces the
dichotomy between the centre and periphery. Thus a division is inevitably formed
between the area that produces the n e w technology and the one which must
subsequently adopt it. Each new technology presents itself as something from outside.
158
requiring a great social effort to assimilate it. A n d this is all the more true of the most
recent revolution in microelectronics and informatics. It is one point where organiz-
ations such as Unesco and U N I D O can give a helping hand.
Closing remarks
It was an important step when the International Network of Centres for Computer
Applications ( I N C C A ) was established and began operating under the auspices of
Unesco. I N C C A is an international association of centres of excellence in some of the
most importantfieldsof engineering applications of computers: computer modelling
and simulation, computational mechanics, computer-aided design ( C A D ) , computer-
aided manufacturing ( C A M ) , robotics and computer-aided instruction. It could
become an important framework for giving educational help to developing countries.
T h e Industrial Centre o n Robotics in the Technical University of Budapest—the
first operating centre of I N C C A — i s organizing a third postgraduate course o n IRs and
robotics in A u t u m n 1987. T h efirstand second courses, sponsored by Unesco in 1985
and 1986 respectively, were attended mainly by teachers from engineering schools in
Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Arab Region and Europe, namely from: India, Brazil,
Cuba, G h a n a , Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Malta, the People's Democratic Republic of
Y e m e n , Turkey, Poland, Bulgaria and Yugoslavia. The objective of the courses was to
present the theory and industrial application of robots and the main problems
encountered in teaching robotics in engineering schools. The participants worked hard
and it was easy to co-operate with them. They took robotization seriously and
expressed the need for a greater degree of technical education in their h o m e countries.
Robotization planning—on a non-governmental level—should be studied and
supported by those scientific organizations not affected by commercial considerations.
O n e possible way of organizing such positive efforts is offered by the Union of
International Technical Associations ( U I T A ) through its Working G r o u p for
Robotics. T h e proposed short-term objectives of this working group are concerned
with education. Education is of key importance in the spread of up-to-date technology,
especially for developing countries. If such countries are not able to produce their o w n
experts in time they will fall behind for ever. The highly developed countries d o have a
moral responsibility to find the technological means of aiding the developing ones to
achieve a satisfactory standard of living for all their people.
Mention should also be made of the Group for Exchange in Science and
Technology ( G E S T E ) , a m e m b e r of U I T A . Its field of action relates to industrial
technologies appropriate to Third World development. F r o m most appropriate
materials to up-to-date techniques, the activities of G E S T E are channelled towards the
satisfaction of essential needs and towards the improvement of local communities,
always having in mind the economic and social realities of the country. A s far as
robotics is concerned, a committee composed of technicians and economists are
presently reflecting on its application in the Third World.
O u r fascination with the potential and the technical challenge of robotization
should not m a k e us forget that it cannot be carried out without people and that in the
final analysis it is the people that it is designed to serve. •
159
Bibliography
S. S T R A N D H , A History of the Machine, N e w York, Addison Wesley Publishers, Inc., 1979.

E C E , Seminar on Industrial Robotics 86, E N G / A U T / S E M . 5, Brno (Czechoslovakia), 24-28
February 1986.
Proceedings of 85 ICAR (International Conference on Advanced Robotics) Tokyo, 9 10
September 1985.
Proceedings of ICTTE 86 (Technology Shaping our Future) Pittsburgh, 6-8 October 1986.
S. Y . N O F , Handbook of Industrial Robotics, N e w York, John Wiley & Sons, 1985.
M E N G H O C K P A N G , Robotization Strategy for Singapore, Thesis, International University of
Japan, 1985.
M . W . T H R I N G , Robots and Telechips, Chichester (U.K.), Ellis Horwood Ltd, 1983.
Proceedings of 15th ISIR (International Symposium on Industrial Robots), Tokyo, 11-13
September 1985.
Proceedings of 16th ISIR (International Symposium on Industrial Robots) Brussels, 30 September-
2 October 1986.
160
Fifth-generation
computer systems and
their impact on society
Norihisa Doi, Koichi Furukawa and Kazuhiro Fuchi
With the goal of creating computers capable of serving as the foundation of an advanced
information society in the 1990s, the development of fifth-generation computer systems for
knowledge information processing started in 1982 as a new programme under the guidance
of the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry. This article describes fifth-
generation computer systems, their applications and their impact on industry and society.
In recent years the computer hardware industry has witnessed some remarkable
technological innovations. For instance, Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) tech-
nology has achieved a higher level of sophistication each year, and the storage capacity
of the semiconductor m e m o r y has quadrupled in three years. Along with this, products
have become smaller and less expensive, thanks to mass production. T h e use of the
computer is n o w widespread, and embraces not only industry but m a n y social spheres,
even the h o m e .
In the future, information processing needs are expected to increase dramatically as
industrial and social activities become m o r e sophisticated and diversified. T o respond
to these growing needs, the drastic improvement of software productivity and
reliability has become an urgent task.
Let us imagine what form the computer will take in the future. Existing computers
will continue to process data in company offices, but as office automation advances,
most clerical work will be handled by man-friendly, super personal computers called
workstations, featuring powerful functions and easy man-machine interaction. Similar-
ly, m a n y engineering tasks will be done by engineering workstations. N u m b e r -
crunching computation such as simulation will be performed by ultra-high-speed
computers called supercomputers with a superior scientific computation capability.
Dedicated database machines will store and retrieve voluminous data, and small
personal computers will meet the needs of the general household. These computers will
very probably be integrated within networks.
In addition, computers arc expected to find even wider-ranging applications as
tools in creative and organizational pursuits, as well as a means to an affluent.
Norihisa Doi is Professor of the Institute of Information Science at Kcio University. Japan. His co-authors,
Koichi Furukawa and Kazuhiro Fuchi are, respectively. Deputy Director and Director of the Research
Centre of Japan's Institute for N e w Generation Computer Technology. All three are closely involved in
research in artificial intelligence, operating systems and software engineering. Professor Doi m a y be
contacted at the Institute of Information Science, Keio University, 4-1-1 Hiyoshi, Kohoku-ku. Y o k o h a m a .
Japan.
161 hnpait <>l \iit'tice on socii'iw no. 146, 16! 170

Norihisa Doi et al.
comfortable life. In particular, computers will be used more frequently to support

decision-making, substituting for, or aiding, m a n ' s intelligence.
With this vision, the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry
initiated a project in 1982 to develop computers capable of forming the basis of an
advanced information society in the 1990s. T h e Fifth-Generation Computer Systems
( F G C S ) project aims at creating computers for knowledge information processing.1,2
Limitations of present computer systems
With few exceptions, all present computers are von Neumann computers, so called
after John von N e u m a n n , one of the scientists whose work was seminal in bringing
about these machines. T h e von N e u m a n n computer is characterized by data and
programs that are stored together (stored program) and programs that are executed
sequentially (sequential control). In the von N e u m a n n computer, everything to be done
must be defined in advance in the form of procedure. T h e program describes
procedures in a language the computer can understand. In the program, the procedure
is called an algorithm. This system presents no problems for numerical computation
and routine clerical processing, since procedures can be pre-defined for this kind of
work.
However, most activity requiring h u m a n intelligence is characterized by the need to
accommodate strategies flexibly to the demands and complexity of a particular
situation. Using the example of language, which is the basis of intelligent activity, the
meaning of a w o r d m a y vary with the situation in which it is used. T h e meaning of a
word also changes in relation to surrounding words. T h e meaning of a sentence also
depends on the object of the sentence and circumstances of use.
Consequently, w h e n one tries to write a program to analyse the meaning of a word
in a sentence, all cases in which the word can be used must be considered. However, the
n u m b e r of cases will be colossal, and even if all cases could ever be listed the program
would never be completed in a reasonable time. In other words, such a program would
have very little practical value because of the excessive processing time.
W h a t is clear is that computers must perform intelligently and flexibly in the
applications required by the society of the 1990s. T h e problem is h o w to develop a
computer with this capability. A first approximation to solving this problem can be
found in artificial intelligence research. Because of the limitations described, the results
of artificial intelligence research cannot be put into practical use with existing
computers.
Artificial intelligence
Stated simply, artificial intelligence research aims at intelligence performed b y

computers in the same or similar manner to h u m a n beings.
This research takes two approaches: one models the mechanism of h u m a n
intelligence; the other attempts to achieve h u m a n intelligence in the computer by
processes not necessarily the same as actual h u m a n intelligence, but emphasis being o n
the result. In the first approach, computers perform simulation and check the outcome.
Since the second approach is informed of the research results of the first, the t w o
strategies are closely related.3
162
The impact offifth-generationcomputers
The topics of artificial intelligence research change with time. Studies in artificial
intelligence are no longer necessary for problem-solving procedures that have already
been modeled or achieved. Research in artificial intelligence always aims at finding
solutions to problems not yet solved algorithmically. T h e following topics are major
themes of current research.3
Proof of theorems
Conclusions are m a d e based upon axioms and inference rules. T h e computer can be an
aid in proving theorems, but thisfieldhas not developed to the point where computers
can automatically prove theorems that m e n cannot.
Games
Studies aim at methods of choosing the best m o v e in all g a m e situations and strategies
for winning the game. Thefieldhas developed a number of methods offindingthe best
of all possible moves and thus has helped to solve problems.
Robots
Research and development in this area is mainly aimed at controlling manipulators to

perform skilful work, developing sensors, and developing high-level languages to
describe work environments and c o m m a n d s .
Vision understanding
The aim here is to m a k e it possible for computers to recognize faces, scenes,

photographs, etc. A variety of image analysis methods have been developed. A s a result,
computers can n o w recognize complicated scenes on condition that knowledge on the
object be input previously. However, a general method to cope with a wide range of
objects has not yet been developed.
Natural language understanding and voice recognition
H o w to m a k e computers understand sentences and speech in natural language, e.g. in

Japanese, English or French, is the focus of thisfieldof study. There arc already some
experimental systems that can understand English or Japanese w h e n the n u m b e r of
objects are limited. However, as the number of objects increases, the number of words
and sentences required increases even more, necessitating c o m m o n sense and inference
rules. Thus, m u c h further study is required.
Knowledge engineering
Research in this area aims at storing experts' knowledge and automaticallyfindingthe

answer to a given problem. The system used for this purpose is called an expert system.
Efforts have been m a d e to apply this to medical trearment, machine design
maintenance/repair and education.
163
Norihisa Doi et al.
Fifth-generation computer systems
A s described earlier, fifth-generation systems are being designed to o v e r c o m e the

shortcomings of the present-day c o m p u t e r . In particular, research is concentrated o n
k n o w l e d g e information processing.
C o m p u t e r 'generations' h a v e b e e n defined b y the c o m p o n e n t s used, as s h o w n in
table 1.
Table 1
Approximate
The generations Generation period Component
of computers.
1 1946-1958 V a c u u m tube
2 1959-1964 Transistor
3 1965-1977 Integrated circuit
(IC)
3-5 1978-1983 Large Scale Integration
(LSI)
4 1984- Very Large Scale Integration
(VLSI)
Computers of the past and present generations have simple hardware architecture
and implement complex functions through software.
In this project, however, it was decided to develop a n e w generation of computers
using technologies that are essentially different from those of the past. In this sense,
computers in this project are called 'fifth-generation' computers (figure 1).
In other words, the ultimate form offifth-generationcomputer should be oriented
to knowledge information processing and achieved on the basis of revolutionary
theories and technologies. T h efifth-generationcomputer is a knowledge information
processing system that, overcoming the technical limit of conventional computers,
implements the intelligent conversation and knowledge base inference functions
required in the 1990s. Its applications are expected to be more extensive than those of
conventional computers.
T h e four basic functionsfifth-generationcomputer must achieve are:
(1) Problem solving and inference functions Logical deductive inference a n d

inductive inference, including guesses based o n incomplete k n o w l e d g e : these inferences
are m a d e to solve a given p r o b l e m .
(2) Knowledge base management functions Acquisition, storage, a n d utilization of

various kinds of k n o w l e d g e required in the inference process.
(3) Intelligent interface functions External interfaces that use natural language
(sentence, voice), graphics, a n d i m a g e s , a n d c a n converse naturally.
(4) Intelligent programming functions Functions to automatically convert a given

p r o b l e m to efficient c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m s .
T o achieve these functions, various technologies of h a r d w a r e architecture, software

engineering, a n d artificial intelligence are being studied a n d developed.
164
Fifth generation computer
Non-von Parallel
Neumann processing Von N e u m a n n type
type .associative
'memory, 4th gen. (VLSIs) Sequential processing
inference/ 3.5-th gen. (LSIs) Addressable memory
knowledge 3rd gen. (ICs) Numerical calculation
| processing 2nd gen. (transistors)
Knowledge 1st gen. (vacuum tubes)
processing Abacus
schemes
(20th Century) (19th Century)
Figure I The position of fifth generation computers in the hierarchy of

computer technology.
Approaches
The first task for achieving knowledge information processing and fifth-generation
computers is the selection of the programming language best suited to describe
intelligent activity by the computer. T o select the language, one needs to understand the
fundamental mechanism of the intelligent activity to be described. It should be noted
that the present computer is a machine developed to model the fundamental
mechanism of numerical computation: that is, the four rules of arithmetic.
In fifth-generation computer systems, logic, in particular predicate logic, was
selected as the principle of intelligent activity. Logic is generally regarded as the
universal rule of thought. O f numerous types of logic, predicate logic is most closely
related to our daily language. This means that anyone can handle predicate logic,
although it m a y seem difficult atfirstbecause of its rigour.
O f course, predicate logic alone cannot account for all intelligent activities; it is
certainly, however, the most powerful logic for description.
The basic mechanism of logic is inference. Inference is a rigorous procedure for
acquiring u n k n o w n information using k n o w n information and knowledge. Inference
plays a central role in our understanding of meaning, whether or not w e are conscious
of its use. T h e basis of intelligent activity is to possess knowledge and m a k e inferences.
Inference is m a d e according to inference rules. The most fundamental inference rule
is the syllogism. A syllogism is a form of reasoning as follows: A is B ; B is C ; therefore, A
is C . O n e method of having the computer m a k e inferences automatically is to
165
Norihisa Doi et al.
incorporate this inference rule in the hardware, and this is the approach of the project
onfifthgeneration computer systems.
T h e method of describing a program logically and executing it by inference is called
logic programming. A program in logic programming is equivalent to a system of
simultaneous linear equations written for a mathematical problem. Inference is
equivalent to solving the equations by means of elimination. A large part of a program
is, in effect, knowledge used for making inference.
As the first step, the logic programming language P R O L O G was selected.
W h e n logic programs are adopted, most knowledge stored in the computer is
represented in the form of predicate logic. Simpler predicate logic representation
almost always corresponds directly to relational expression in the relational database.
Consequently, relational database techniques are utilized to create a knowledge base,
which stores knowledge.
In addition, predicate logic programs allow parallel processing, which resembles
the process of obtaining u n k n o w n quantities in a system of simultaneous linear
equations concurrently. O n e objective of thefifth-generationcomputer systems project
is to achieve parallel processing directly by hardware. In other words, the project aims
at developing computers that can perform symbol-crunching computation at a high
speed. For this reason, thefinalform of thefifth-generationcomputer will be a parallel
inference machine consisting of a number of element processors (figure 2).
Stages in development
As the central organization charged to carry out and promote the Fifth-Generation
Computer Systems project, the Institute for N e w Generation Computer Technology
(abbreviated to I C O T ) was founded in April 1982. T h e national project started w h e n
the Research Centre was inaugurated in June 1982.
Knowledge information
processing
Logic programming Knowledge base
Highly parallel computer

architecture
Figure 2 VLSI
Approach to the
development of the fifth
generation computer.
166
The research and development offifth-generationcomputer systems involves m a n y

u n k n o w n factors and great risks. For this reason, the research and development period
spans ten years and is divided into three stages—three years for the initial stage, four
years for the intermediate, and three years for thefinalstage.
Investigations in the initial stage were m a d e with emphasis on the development of
basic techniques necessary for constructingfifth-generationcomputer systems, and this
stage ended successfully, with more achievements than expected. O n e noteworthy
achievement was the development of the parallel logic programming language Guard
H o r n Clauses. Research and development in the intermediates stage is being carried
out based upon the results of the initial stage. Research in the intermediate stage is
expected to determine algorithms and basic architecture for subsystems that will
constitutefifth-generationcomputer systems. According to the plan, several sub-
systems for constructing a small- or medium-scale system will be developed using the
algorithms and architecture. The third year of the intermediate stage begins in April
1987.
The plan for the final stage is to integrate all achievements and create a final
prototype of thefifth-generationcomputer.
This project is also characterized by the objective of developing various research
and development tools. Tool development was continued into the intermediate stage
becausefifth-generationcomputer systems are based on revolutionary programming
languages, and their software cannot be efficiently developed by present computers.
The sequential inference machine called PSI (Personal Sequential Inference machine)
was developed by handle the new programming language (see figure 3). High-
performance software development support tools are n o w being developed on the PSI.
Applications and impact
Fifth-generation computer systems could be applied to any area that requires problem
solving and inference functions.
T o take the example of medical treatment, countless applications can be listed:
automatic nursing systems monitoring serious cases through the night and giving
treatment support when the patient's condition changes suddenly; systems to help
analyse X-rayfilmsor tomograms and diagnose the area for treatment; systems to help
determine the name of the illness or prescribe medicine based o n various check data;
systems to m a k e the duty schedule for nurses and systems to decide menus. W h e n
studies in natural language understanding advance further and machine translation at
higher levels becomes possible, or when people place international calls to a speaker of
another language, both parties m a y be able to speak in their o w n tongue. In education,
more effective educational systems can be expected, in which one will be able to judge
the optimum way of giving instructions to each individual. Present computer-aided
instruction (CAI) systems cannot do this.
Table 2 lists examples of applications in each area.
Needless to say, these applications will occur not only through the achievements of
research onfifth-generationcomputer systems but also through research in artificial
intelligence that makes clear the models and mechanisms of intelligent functions. Thus,
continued research is very important.
The goal of Fifth-Generation Computer Systems project is to create a knowledge
information processing system that can help humans solve problems in their
167
Norihisa Doi et al.
Figure 3 T h e Personal Sequential Inference (PSI) machine.
Tabic 2 Examples of tilth-generation computer applications.
Industrial areas • Design ( V L S I - C A D ) : designing large-scale computers in a short

period of time
• Production processes (intelligent robots): replacement of h u m a n
work in 'dirty'jobs or under extreme conditions
• Development: expert systems for efficient development of c h e m -
ical and pharmaceuticals
• M a n a g e m e n t (management diagnosis, expert systems): support
for optimum management decisions based on changes in society
and the economy
• Office work (intelligent O A ) : word processors using voice input,
document preparation support
• Maintenance (remote diagnosis of malfunctions): automated
diagnosis of various plant malfunctions
Social areas • Education (CAI): realization of individual instruction with

m e n u s geared to the student's level of understanding
• Clinical (automated nursing systems): night-time surveillance of
patients in intensive care units, support for measures to cope
with sudden changes in condition
International • Translation (automatic translation systems): automation of

effective translation between several languages at the semantic
level
168
exploration of the u n k n o w n , and significantly extend the scope of the intellectual

activity. This will have an immeasurable impact o n industry and society. For instance,
fifth-generation computer systems can improve productivity in primary and tertiary
industries, which generally have a lower productivity than secondary industries. Figure
4 illustrates the impact offifth-generationcomputer systems in each area.
Figure 4 The social impacts of fifth-generation computers.
Conclusion
The Fifth-Generation Computer Systems project is an extremely challenging one, to

the degree that it triggered active worldwide research into next-generation computers.
Table 3 lists government-led projects in other countries designed to develop advanced
computers.
W h e n the goals of the F G C S project are attained, both fifth generation and present
computers will be able to support a large part of our daily activities. However, there is
169
n o guarantee that all goals c a n b e attained within the ten-year period of the project. W e
m u s t m a k e e v e n m o r e ardent efforts to bring a b o u t a n age in w h i c h m e n can enjoy a
richer, fuller life. •
Table 3. Major research and development projects being carried out in countries outside Japan.
USA D A R P A (Defence Advanced Research Project Agency) of the

Department of Defense, has inititated a program called the
Strategic Computing and Survivability Project. Development is to
be carried out over a ten-year period, beginning 1984 under a
charter from the U . S . Government (AI expert systems, parallel
processing architecture, etc.). A joint research project (on c o m -
puters and semiconductors) by private firms is also underway. A
consortium called M C C (Microelectronics Computer Technology)
was established, whose w o r k is being performed over approxi-
mately 10 years starting 1983. ( C A D / C A M , AI, new architectures,
advanced IC packaging, etc.)
United K i n g d o m The Department of Trade and Industry has initiated a p r o g r a m m e

for advanced informatipn technology (the Alvey Programme). A
steering committee w a s established within the Ministry in June
1983 and research and development was begun in April 1984.
(Knowledge base system, man-machine interfaces, software en-
gineering, VLSIs, etc.)
France Committees of experts within research organizations are presently

studying possible projects corresponding to the F G C S project, and
will m a k e recommendations to the Government. (AI, knowledge
base management, intelligent interfaces, etc.)
Federal Republic The government has instituted a policy for the comprehensive
of G e r m a n y promotion of improvements of the information industry. In a five-
year sector research on semiconductors and next-generation c o m -
puters. (AI, expert systems, parallel processing architecture)
European C o m m u n i t y With the development of m o r e advanced information technology as

its goal, the E E C approved plans for software technology, V L S I -
CAD, etc. (ESPRIT Programme). T h e E C R C (European
Computer-Industry Research Centre) was established in January
1984 by Bull, I C L a n d Siemens. (Next-generation computer
architecture, man-machine interfaces, etc.)
References
Outline of Fifth Generation Computer Project, Instutute for N e w Generation Computer

Technology, 1986.
T . M O T O - O K A and M . K I T S U R E G A W A , The Fifth Generation Computer: The Japanese
Challenge, N e w York, John Wiley and Sons, 1985.
Y . SHIRAI a n d J. TSUJII, Artificial Intelligence: Concepts, Techniques, and Applications, N e w
York, John Wiley and Sons, 1984.
170
The engineer and
the modern
technological revolution
Christo Boutzev
The introduction of the computer into the industrial sector is leading to a steady decrease
in the number of workers directly involved in production. A t the same time there is a
demand as never before for qualified technical personnel. Engineering education is
therefore seen as one of the decisive factors in socio-economic development, and the
establishment of new curricula of crucial importance.
M a n is a tool-making animal. This is what distinguishes him from all others. Indeed, it
might be more appropriate if our species were called Homo ingenious rather than Homo
sapiens, for there is some arrogance in the assumption—quite unjustified—that of all
the higher m a m m a l s that ever existed only mankind has been sapiens. But it is
demonstrable that w e are indeed the only species to have developed those skills of
manipulation and creativity that have set us apart from the rest of the living world.
M a n is a product of both biological and social evolution. Production in the broad
sense of the word could be considered as one of the principal activities of mankind. Its
two basic components are:
— a material component (tools, machines, energy, etc.);

— a h u m a n component, expressed in terms of the knowledge and professional
skills of persons involved in the production process, enabling them to assimilate,
use and generate technological ideas and information.
The degree of development of a society is determined by the methods of production

and distribution of products a m o n g members of that society. The main trend in the
evolution of mankind is the continuous increase of labour productivity. For this
purpose m a n invents more and m o r e high-performance tools, machines and
technologies.
Christo Boutzev is a m e m b e r of the Unesco Secretariat in Paris. H e graduated in electrical engineering from
the State Polytechnic of Sofia, and has held posts of Professor of Electricity and Electrical Machines in
Bulgaria afld Tunisia. Professor Boulzev"s research interests include the technological applications of
electricity and computer applications in electrical engineering, and he has published six books and m a n y
papers on these topics. For six years he was responsible for the organization of continuing engineering
education at the Bulgarian Council for Higher Education. H e m a y be contacted through the Division of
Technological Research and Higher Education, Unesco, 7 place de Fontenoy. 75700 Paris, France.
171 Impacl of science on society, no 146. 171 175

Christo Boutzev
M a n and technological development
The dictionary defines 'technology' as the systematic application of scientific and other
organized knowledge and skills to practical tasks. Whereas the primary objective of
science is 'understanding w h y ' the principal concern of technology is 'knowing how'.
For centuries the fundamental development and improvement of technology has been
related to the transformation of materials and the conversion of energy.
Thefirstindustrial revolution was produced by mankind's mastery over mechan-
ical power as a replacement for h u m a n and animal muscle power, whereas the present
one is being driven by our control over information through the explosive development
of informatics as an adjunct to the organizing capacity of the h u m a n brain: for today
the main limitation of the advance of technology is the very complexity of the machines
and systems w e have created. Control is the limiting factor, and modern informatics is
the direct result of our need to control the complexity of the devices and systems that we
have so ingeniously created. Information is power, and if the present industrial
revolution follows along similar lines to thefirstthen the inevitable result will be the
concentrating of enormous economic power into the hands of a few—perhaps only one
or two—nations. It is interesting (if somewhat uncomfortable) to speculate that in a few
decades m a n y of us w h o n o w regard ourselves as privileged members of the developed
world m a y find ourselves and our countries reassigned to the category
'underdeveloped'.
Technological progress during the last few decades has been based to a large extent
on developments in the sciences, particularly in physics, material sciences and
electronics. This systematic application of scientific achievements in production has
transformed science into a direct productive force, making possible the creation of the
so-called new technologies. Production has become more and more sophisticated,
requiring a more and more interdisciplinary approach to technological problems. At
the same time n e w technological processes require an increasing d e m a n d for
information. This is one of the principal components of the 'information explosion'.
The development of information technology has progressed hand in hand with the
development of production technologies, and the principal actor in the piece is the
silicon chip.
Computer and information technology has so radically affected the productive
sector that w e might be forgiven for drawing a somewhat sweeping distinction between
history before and history after the arrival of the computer. T h e traditional ' m a n -
machine interface' has been modified; between the two n o w sits the computer, following
strictly the former's c o m m a n d s but bringing to the relationship its qualities of rapidity,
speed and unlimited m e m o r y (seefigure1). For thefirsttime an inanimate device is able
to execute complex ' h u m a n ' mental functions (mathematical and logical) faster and
better than m a n himself.
S o m e impacts of the computerization of production
Today, the computer is manifestly one of mankind's major technological tools. The
widespread computerization of production is leading to a steady 'intellectualization' of
the labour force, and at the same time computer skills are becoming essential for m a n y
members of the present industrial society. This is the major reason behind the
corresponding changes in educational curricula at all levels, and the development of
various forms of continuing education.
172
The engineer and the technological revolution
Figure I
The 'man-machine
interface' (a) before the Man
computer (ft), in the
computer age.
Control Feed-back
Machine Products
b s -N f Output \
/ Input Man ~~*"l information I
I information
Programme Feed-back
( Output \
Memory Computer I information I
Control Feed-back
Materials
_y - Machine Products
Energy
T h e application of the computer to all stages of production is leading to a continual

decrease in the n u m b e r of people directly involved in technological production and to
corresponding increases in the numbers of technicians a n d engineers working in
research laboratories and computer centres. T h e d e m a n d for highly qualified scientific
and technological staff capable of applying m o d e r n technology and of using
sophisticated technological equipment will continue to increase, and corresponding
educational and training activities must be considered as a part of the investment
necessary for further development in the computer age.
At the same time forward planning has to be undertaken for the dissemination of
scientific and technological knowledge to all m e m b e r s of society, because in different
ways everyone is concerned in today's technological revolution. Information systems,
173
Christo Boutzev
and not only technological ones, supported by n e w telecommunication systems will

m a k e access to information easier, without any limitation of distance and time. These
achievements of information technology will modify in a fundamental w a y our
traditional concepts of education and training.
A s a direct result of increasing labour productivity the trend towards a shortening
of the working day will continue within the developed world. Whether large sections of
the industrialized communities are intellectually prepared for such developments is a
complex social question. It m a y well be that one of the principal future roles of
educational institutions will be preparing people for the creative use of leisure.
T h e role of the engineer in the technological revolution
During the modern technological revolution the role of the engineer has b e c o m e more
important. There is a very strong correlation between the indicators of technological
development and the n u m b e r of engineers in employment or in training. Figure 2 shows
£ 6 000 -i
Q. £
co
—> TD
TO
o
o CD
o O
ö'- 5 000 -
o
cu
"O
cu
4 ¡S, 2 «3
•5. °00
N
x —
.o
E
3 000-
< «3 CD
1
•is s,i ¡s
>-
2 000'
"i
1 000-
= ™ >, cu CD -ÇZ
— CD
<J¡ ^ ¿ TU
VT- CU
0- _Lli 1_L
Figure 2 The number of engineers in employment in various countries of
the world.
174
The engineer and the technological revolution
that in the technologically most advanced countries there are o n average 3000 to 5500
engineers in employment per 100000 inhabitants. For developing countries this
number never exceeds 1000. In some cases it is even less than 100. T h e situation with
engineers in training is similar.
This example shows another aspect of technological inequality existing in the
modern world. There are no signs of an improvement in the situation, at least in the
near future. There is no doubt that this is an alarming prospect. It is clear thai
technological development without a corresponding increase in the number of
engineers will not be possible. Furthermore, any dream of technological development
or the transfer of technology will remain illusory as long as h u m a n technological
potential remains below its critical mass.
During the modern technological revolution engineering education has become as
never before one of the most decisive factors determining national socio-economic
advancement. A s a rule examination of the successful technological development of
s o m e countries after the Second World W a r shows that engineering education w a s
strongly developed by such countries during the same period. Engineering education
was given special attention by national authorities as one of the ways of ensuring the
country's technological development: investment in engineering education w a s
considered as an investment in industrial development.
Engineering education has to foresee the needs of national technological develop-
ment. In m a n y cases engineering schools are also the largest national research centres,
carrying out, in close collaboration with local industry, intensive technological
research and development and the continuing education of engineers in employment.
The quality of engineering education is determined by its content and teaching
methods. Engineering curricula must keep pace with technological development.
Computer applications in engineering and the use of the computer as a teaching tool
should be focal points in the modernization of the teaching process.
Today more than ever engineering education is called upon to develop the student's
creativity. Technology offers unique opportunities to young people to exercise
their creative talents. Students have to be encouraged to apply all their imagination and
creativity to the problem-solving process. This is the most important vocation of every
teacher, but unfortunately this vocation is often forgotten.
Engineers also have responsibility for the further development of the engineering
sciences, which are as important for the progress of mankind as the fundamental
sciences. T h e major foïce for social and economic change throughout history has been
not science, as exemplified by the Renaissance, but technology, as exemplified the
industrial revolution. Technologically induced change acts either directly on society (as
in power, transport and communications), or as an intermediary of science (nuclear
power, bioengineering, drug manufacture or chemical engineering). In the past a great
number of social problems have been created by engineers; at the same time engineers
have also m a d e the biggest contribution to their solution. It is here where the main
social role and responsibility of engineers lie. •
175
The twenty-first century
corporation
Roger B. Smith
In this article the Chairman of one of the world's largest multinational companies outlines
his vision of a 'twenty-first century corporation, in which offices will he computerized and
paperless and linked by worldwide communications, factories will he fully automated and
robotized. Artificial intelligence will play a large part in service routines. To evolve into
such a company will require modern fully integrated systems, but many companies have not
yet learned to take a system approach to their organization. It will also need the key
ingredient of trained people.
Introduction
I'd like to begin with a look into the future. I want to focus on the twenty-first century,
because that's where business everywhere must increasingly turn to succeed—and even
to survive -in the supercharged world competition we're all engaged in.
A n d unless w e want to play a perpetual g a m e of catch-up, w e in the automobile
business have to d o m o r e than just meet our competition on a day-to-day basis. W e
have to beat our competitors in long-term strategy. W e have to anticipate their future
moves. W e have to understand theif ultimate strategies and outstrategize and outsmart
them.
O n e good w a y to do this is to build what I call the twenty-first century corporation.
Those words 'twenty-first century' have something of a fairytale quality about them.
They seem to promise more than just the rolling over of the big page on the calendar.
T h e d a w n of a n e w century traditionally holds out hope of greatly expanded
opportunity, a chance to improve the quality of life, an open w i n d o w on a whole n e w
millennium— a n e w age, as was signified in thefilm2001.1 think all those possibilities
exist. But realizing them will m e a n a lot of work—and even greater imagination.
Roger B. Smith is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the General Motors Corporation in the United
States. H e graduated from Detroit University School in 1942 and received his bachelor's and master's degrees
in business administration at the Universi ty of Michigan. M r Smith began his long and successful career with
General Motors in 1949. Since 1974 he has been an Executive Vice-President and m e m b e r of the G M Board
of Directors, and was elected Chairman and Chief Executive Officer in January 1981. His address is General
Motors Building, 3044 West Grand Boulevard, Detroit, Michigan, M l 48202, United States of America.
First published in the International Journal of Technology Management, Vol. 1, Nos 1'2. 1986.
c Indcrsciencc Enterprise Ltd. Reproduced by kind permission of the publishers.
177 Impact of science on society, no. 146, 177 -1X2

Roger B. Smith
The truth is, the twenty-first century is only a matter of years away. It isn't that far
d o w n the road—not in terms of forward planning. A n d arriving there—in the
condition I'm about to describe—will be more than a simple country drive. It will be a
quantum leap for every manufacturer in our industry.
O n e reason is that too m a n y of our business systems are really not systematic at
all—they are a maze of disconnected, uncoordinated, and even competing systems.
This is because most companies developed through rapid growth. A n d as they grew
bigger, the small, basic systems that originally brought them success were simply
enlarged.
Personnel records, for example, continued to be kept independently of payroll
records. The various systems continued to develop and grow separately, serving their
o w n needs. There was n o true recognition of the benefits and cost savings that a
consolidated, total systems approach could bring. A n d , in today's competitive
environment, the separate systems that worked so well w h e n the firm was relatively
small often proved dangerously inadequate as it grew large.
The result often was a company with uncoordinated systems, representing little
more than a collection of empires built by department heads w h o werefiercelyloyal to
their o w n particular functions. Such department heads often had disdain—and even
hostility—towards other departments and little or no sympathy towards a c o m m o n
corporate systems approach. In fact, in the minds of such department heads, a
c o m m o n corporate systems approach would wash out the walls they had so carefully
built around their empires. Even modern technology, such as the computer, failed to
crack these impenetrable walls. Instead, each department bought its o w n computers
and jealously guarded its software and data. As you can imagine, such companies were
inherently weak when it c a m e time to battle the competition.
Need for a systems approach
H o w did so m a n y businesses get into such a state? They weren't stupid—they were
preoccupied with other and seemingly more pressing problems and opportunities
arising out of growth. Moreover, their major competitors were often caught up in the
same spiral. That is h o w separate and uncoordinated systems were allowed to develop.
While management's attention was distracted, these systems grew larger and larger and
more and more separate. But it's not too late to seize the initiative again and create the
modern management systems w e need n o w for future success. A n d what is needed to do
this most efficiently is a total systems approach.
Such an approach treats an organization and its administrative processes as an
organic whole, rather than a collection of uncoordinated parts. The organization is
seen as an integrated entity composed of interrelated systems and subsystems.
T o develop a total systems approach, each business must create an integrated, co-
ordinated, decision-making w a y of functioning— a method that encompasses
business plans, budgets, product programmes, and everything else that helps to run
the business. It must build an integrated worldwide database that brings all parts of
the business together. Such a databasefinallymarries those two great singles, the
manufacturing systems and the business systems, with no chance of divorce.
The bottom-line benefit of such a wedding is that it allows business people to
understand their total business in a comprehensive way that was not possible before.
They can actually see those cases where two can live more cheaply than one. They can
178
The twenty-first century corporation
simultaneously review all parts of the business -as well as the linkages which hold
them together. A n d this new-found ability enables them to m a k e more informed, more
timely, and shrewder business decisions -decisions that can give a company a long-
term competitive edge.
In the coming electronic age of the twenty-first century, the integrated database I've
described will be on a computer. Just as the automobiles of today are increasingly
moving from mechanical controls to electronic controls, so must the business of today
switch from paper to an electronic flow of data. Companies will be computer-integrated
and paperless—with cost-effective worldwide telecommunications networks.
Those companies that want to lead their industries have no choice but to develop a
total systems approach. All significant world-class competitors arc heading that way.
There is n o alternative.
Building a twenty-first century corporation
Against this backdrop, let m e m o v e a little closer to h o m e . Let m e offer General

Motors' recent alliance with Electronic Data Systems and Hughes Aircraft as an
example.
A major reason for bringing our three firms together was to create a computer-
integrated twenty-first century corporation such as I've described. Each of the
entities—General Motors, E D S , and Hughes has unique properties and strengths
which complement the others. W e offer each other special synergies, which w e hope to
use for mutual competitive advantage.
For example, the people at General Motors are experts in the development of
processes and equipment used in manufacturing. E D S is the largest and most
technically advanced computer services c o m p a n y in the world. Specifically, E D S is
extremely knowledgeable in the development of software, such as might be used to
control an automated manufacturing system. A n d Hughes—one of the nation's
foremost electronics companies—is both a systems and hardware specialist. It is widely
experienced in integrating very large systems such as defence electronics systems and
satellite communications systems. In fact, Hughes itself has designed and built 60° 0 of
the commercial communications satellites n o w in operation.
With complementary strengths such as these, our three companies should be able to
work very productively together on such large-scale projects as creating G M ' s factories
of the future, thefirstfully automated robotic factories. Also, w e k n o w that electronics
will be the key to the automobile of the future—and with Hughes and E D S , w c believe
we have the major pieces in place to build a true twenty-first century car in factories
equipped with true twenty-first century systems.
W e should also have an inbuilt edge on integrating our corporate information
systems o n a worldwide scale, using G M ' s skill in electronics operations, E D S ' s
expertise in computer software systems, and Hughes's capabilities in the design,
implementation, and operation of communications satellites. With the combined
resources of our three companies, w e don't have to buy our communications network
off the shelf—and put it together piece by piece. W e can actually custom design it from
the ground up. W e can even design the satellites the system will need.
By co-ordinating the work of all three companies at the outset of a project -
working in parallel instead of sequentially w e hope not only to develop more
innovative solutions and better products but also to gain valuable lead time on our
179
Royer B. Smith
competition. W e might be able to gain as m u c h as two years. A n d w e should hope to

find ways to be competitive in areas of the market where w e can't compete today.
So with Hughes, w e are bringing satellite technology d o w n to earth to be m o r e
competitive— and with E D S w e are using the world's largest computer services
company to get on-line with the future. Let us consider what that future might look like
in a G M office, factory, and dealership in the twenty-first century.
The paperless office and automated factory
The office will bear little resemblance to the office of today. It will consist very simply of
two things: a personal computer and a microphone, or some other method of input. The
computer will respond to voice c o m m a n d s to place 'phone calls, to take dictation for
electronic mail, and to process such standard items as accounts payable. The computer
will be our database, taking all information we give it, processing the data, and storing
it electronically for future use. Very, very little will have to be written d o w n . A n d
because paper will have been virtually eliminated, there will be nofilingcabinets, no in-
and-out baskets. For all intents and purposes, our office will be paperless.
Computers will continue to be great work and time savers in our design and
engineering facilities. But there the savings in time and effort will accelerate at a rapid
pace. In fact, w e believe that future computer applications that w e are working on right
n o w will soon allow our designers and engineers to achieve a twelve-fold increase in
productivity on some assignments. This will be a huge breakthrough— and it will
virtually eliminate the chance for h u m a n error o n those assignments.
Engineers and other office workers will be tied to the manufacturing plants by a
computer-integrated communications network. All the computers in the offices and
factories willfinallybe able to 'talk' to each other. It will be as if the whole world
simultaneously spoke the same language.
With improved communications will come vastly increased understanding, and
incredible efficiencies. Each activity in the offices and plants will have a clearer view of
h o w itfitsinto the total operation. A n d the support systems for the factory will be
directly driven by the assembly process, as they should be. The assembly line itself will
tell suppliers h o w m a n y parts to produce, in what sequence, and when they arc needed.
W e have already started paperless communication like this with a number of our
suppliers. It is happening in some of our newer plants, like our Detroit-Hamtramck
Assembly Centre, where the 'just in time' process feeds the assembly lines.
Suppliers will also be paid electronically, based not on invoices but on actual plant
production figures. This might be thefirstreal opportunity to eliminate purchase
orders, shipping documents, receiving slips, and invoices since Italian merchants
introduced double-entry book-keeping in the fourteenth century.
Out on the factory floor, the network of automated processes will be computer
controlled and checked by machine vision technology. S o m e robots will be pro-
g r a m m e d to respond to voice c o m m a n d s . This will be especially useful where the
h u m a n operator must be mobile, as in the quality inspection process.
At the dealerships, the electronic revolution will reach full swing—and there it will
count the most in serving customers better, and that's the real payoff. Customers will be
able to specify and order cars through a computer terminal on-line with the factory.
Their orders will generate the actual build orders for the assembly lines and the releases
for suppliers to start just-in-time bar-coded shipments—in effect, driving the whole
system.
180
Dealership sales people and service technicians will be trained and constantly
updated through the corporation's telecommunications network. This network will
continuously feed up-to-date information on n e w developments and factory product
changes; new diagnostic and repair techniques; and the latest vehicle specifications,
service manual information, and service bulletin summaries.
Computerized maintenance systems
Service itself will be greatly simplified through such diagnostic tools as artificial
intelligence, which will also receive constant updates from the factory. A prototype of
these will soon be introduced in the form of Buick's Computerized Automotive
Maintenance System, or C A M S . C A M S is a computer application that literally plugs
into the car and gives dealership service technicians the ability to accurately diagnose
and repair on-board electrical components using a computer loaded with artificial
intelligence.
Through electronic innovations such as these, the dealership will be able to offer
customers faster, more accurate service -and, w e hope, greater customer satisfaction-
with each visit. New-car order times should shrink, and the dealer will be able to
accomplish the same tasks with a smaller inventory of new vehicles and service parts.
S o m e years from n o w , w e m a y be able to offer the use of special communications
satellites to give precise geographic locations of individual cars or wholefleetsof
vehicles. This could prove invaluable tofleetowners, but it might also be useful in
tracking stolen vehicles—and in ending sleepless nights for parents w h e n a young son
or daughter is out with the car.
All of this m a y sound like a Star Wars fantasy. But it's m u c h more science than
fiction. The future isn't that far d o w n the road. For example, portions of G M ' s
worldwide satellite communications network are already in place. A n d our new Saturn
Corporation is already on its journey to a paperless world. O n e of itsfirststeps is a
paperless expense report system.
The idea of a paperless expense account might seem to shake the very pillars of
business. Imagine an expense report with no signatures required! The expense report
will be electronically transmitted to the financial computer. R a n d o m audits will be
m a d e electronically. Expenses submitted at 8.30 in the morning should be credited to
an employee's bank account by the end of the day. A n d by eliminating paper, this
system will generate savings far greater than the investment involved.
Obviously, the road to the paperless, computer-integrated corporation of the
twentyfirstcentury doesn't c o m e without a few bumps. W e still live in a paper-using
world. A n d to interface properly, even a paperless company m a y need a few filing
cabinets around for the tax people—at least to start. Just think back and remember:
even microfilm met a lot of scepticism when it wasfirstintroduced.
Another ' b u m p ' in the road is the fact that the security of paperlessfilesmust always
be guarded. But by encrypting information—that is, sending all data as numbers—that
can also be successfully done. The truth is, our paperlessfilescan be a lot more secure
than a 'phone line or all the paper that'sfloatingaround right n o w .
Also, no such advanced system will work without a unique energy source - our o w n
people, retrained and re-educated to perform at their peak in a computerized world.
Technology will not m a k e the h u m a n brain obsolete. Rather, it will extend the brain's
capacity.
181
People—the key ingredient
1 might add that we're totally dedicated at General Motors to developing our people
and their skills to equip them, too, for the twenty-first century. M o n e y and technology
alone will not solve our problems—we k n o w that. W e also need the key ingredient—
people. The computerization of an industry is only another sophisticated tool. Without
the right people given the right training to correctly use the system and m a k e the right
decisions, technology only gives us the opportunity to m a k e scrap faster. W e still have
to manage technology. A n d w e need top, trained people at all levels to help us d o it.
The important thing is to keep our thoughts centred not on the b u m p s but o n the
broad avenue of opportunity that lies before us. With the proper technological moves
and the right management choices, each one of us in business can have a greater future
than we ever expected—even in the face of the toughest global competition we've ever
known. W e can lead the world into a whole n e w era, a renaissance of productivity and
industrial innovation beyond even the wildest sciencefiction.A n d the millennium w e
create for ourselves will be one of growth, prosperity and influence for people
everywhere. O u r job. as I see it at General Motors, is to help provide the leadership
and we will d o this by helping to create the twenty-first century corporation. •
182
The influence of
information technology
on the economic
and cultural life of
Soviet Central Asia
Chingiz Aitmatov
Like many other countries and regions of the world, Soviet Central Asia is experiencing
profound changes in its cultural, scientific and industrial life as a result of the introduction
of the computer and related information technologies. At the same time its unique
geographical and cultural situation is bringing special benefits and challenges to its
peoples.
In days gone by, the great Silk R o a d from China to Byzantium ran for nearly the whole
of its length through the vast region then k n o w n as Turkestan, winding its w a y through
the towns, villages and n o m a d encampments of Central Asia. Travelling through time
and space, the traders' caravans brought with them n e w s of current events, thus linking
lands and peoples, promoting the interpénétration of cultures, the spread of religious
and political ideas and the exchanges of experience in economic and military matters.
Years, centuries and millennia went by in that slow round of days. W e need to
remember this for the simple reason that this m o d e of transmission of information,
relying o n the physical m o v e m e n t of people, direct contact between them and
principally involving oral communication—in local parlance uzum kulak, 'the long
ear'—continued to exist until the beginning of the twentieth century, in other words
practically d o w n to our o w n day.
It is also important to recall this because the full scale of what has been achieved by
way of development can only be appreciated by comparison with things as they were in
the past, particularly w h e n one is dealing with developing countries.
It hardly needs to be stressed that our world today is a world of continually
growing, all-embracing and increasingly sophisticated information exchange, and that
m o d e r n means of communication, which m a k e it possible to transmit and reproduce at
lightning speed newfin^ffngsin variousfieldsof h u m a n endeavour, constitute the most
palpable and persuasive achievement of the scientific and technological revolution as it
The author of this article, Soviet writer Chingiz Aitmatov, is a prominent member of the Kirghizkaya
Academy of Sciences. H e is holder of State and Lenin Prizes for his work, which deals mostly with modern
ethical and social problems linked with the intellectual and material development of society. His published
writings—in Russian and the Kirghiz language—include novels such as The White Ship. Goodbye Gulserary.
Ojemilva and Mother's Field. Academician Aitmatov was an organizer of the recent international Issyk-Kul
forum. H e m a y be contacted through: Union of Writers of S S R Kirghiz, Kirov Street 21, Frunze, SSR
Kirghizkaya, U S S R .
183 Impact of science on society, n o . 146n 183-187

Chingiz Aitmatov
is perceived and experienced by people at large. In this connection, the experience of the
republics of Soviet Central Asia m a y in some measure serve as an example of the
potential of developing countries in this domain.
The special needs of Central Asia
A s elsewhere, information technology, as a factor that both serves and shapes modern
productive and intellectual activity, is part and parcel of life in the Central Asian region,
which has a fairly well developed radio and television network, automated control and
teletype systems, and is making more and more use of visual display units and
computers in management.
It has, however, certain special features which highlight even more the significance
of information technology. These relatefirstlyto the vital role of such technology in a
region of high mountains with a pronounced continental climate where one can
encounter annual temperatures ranging between — 15 and 50 C , and snowy zones of a
polar type succeeded at lower altitudes by woodland, meadows and arid lands,
which in turn give way to waterless deserts and sand. The fact that modern m a n is able
to employ what are n o w routine methods for the prediction and monitoring of the most
intricate climatic processes, and for transmitting the data instantaneously and
automatically to the appropriate centres, is further evidence of the power and
sophistication of modern information technology. For the Central Asians of past
generations, constantly subject to the whims of nature that often took the form of major
disasters—drought, mountain mudflows or snowfalls that killed off their cattle—such
an understanding and forecasting of weather conditions was a dream. There is ample
evidence of this in popular lore and poetry, in which especially God-gifted individuals
dwelling on the mountaintops were able by magic to call up desirable natural
phenomena and to ward off those that were harmful.
Information technology and agriculture
Equipped with the means and methods of modern information technology, the present-
day Central Asian is able to keep his finger on the pulse of the elements. Permanent
weather-watch stations are in operation along all of the principal ridges of the Tien
Shan and Pamir chains, conducting both long-term and daily observations; this has
m a d e it possible over the past 20 years to m a k e agriculture m u c h less dependent upon
unstable hydrological factors and to put hydroelectric power generation o n a sound
basis. T h e high efficiency of the m a n y Central Asian reservoirs and hydroelectric power
stations, including the major ones at Nurek in Tadzhikistan, at Toktogul in Kirghizia
and Chirchin in Uzbekistan, could certainly not have been achieved without
information technology and automation.
As a result of this development, the acreage of irrigated land in Central Asia has
doubled and in some cases even tripled since the Second World W a r , while the amount
of electrical power generated in the republics has increased by tens of times.
Information technology has found a n e w and striking application in stock farming,
especially transhumance stock farming. This ancient occupation of the local popul-
ation had formerly condemned people to a lonely nomadic life in the mountains and
steppes. Information technology, as it is today applied in the centres of the stock
farming regions, has m a d e life much easier: it has improved bookkeeping practices,
184
Information technology in Soviet Central Asia
speeded up the distribution of commodities and materials, and helped to organize

various production processes: insemination programmes, shearing and wool sorting,
the selection and classification of pedigree stock, droving (or rather in today's
conditions, the m o v e m e n t of herds over long distances by helicopter and articulated
lorry), and systematic veterinary, health-care and medical preventive measures, are
n o w carried out on a massive scale. A very important factor in m o d e r n stock farming is
the use of information technology by the safety services to give early warning of
avalanches and landslides in the mountain areas and brushfires in the steppelands.
Improvements in the technology of slaughterhouses and meat processing plants
include increased computerization of the accounts and of the sorting and quality
control of the various end products.
Information technology is likewise becoming a prominent feature in the day-to-day
lives of the graziers, making significant, not to say revolutionary, inroads into their
traditional way of life. Transistor radios, television sets, radio communications, and, in
certain areas, the telephone, have m a d e the work of the solitary herdsman out on the
pastures far from any urban centre, more comfortable and more efficient.
Scientific and technological progress
In industry and science too, information technology is playing a key role, especially in
the drive to improve quality and bring products up to world standards. This is being
conducted in Central Asia as in the rest of the Soviet Union, in connection with the
revolutionary restructuring of the economy as a whole with a view to achieving greater
efficiency and higher quality at this n e w stage in the development of socialist
management and planning.
Of particular importance in the role of information technology in industry is the
improvement of the scientific and technological basis of mining and ore dressing, which
are widely developed in Central Asia: for instance the automation and computerization
of drilling and the mechanization of loading and dumping processes. The technology
also plays an important part in dealing with problems in the mechanics and physics of
mining activities-computer-assisted study of underground formations and the
practical applications of seismology.
The principal scientific programmes of the academies of sciences of the Central
Asian republics—which are the country's key institutions for a whole range of long-
term projects- provide for the development and application of new automated and
computerized processes in ore extraction operations.
In their role as regional scientific centres, the republican academies of sciences are
being increasingly equipped with the necessary information and automation tech-
nology. They also maintain continuous computer links with institutions abroad via
V N I I P A S , the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Applied Automated Systems
in M o s c o w , which gives their research and development activities a worldwide
dimension.
The cultural dimension
Information technology also holds a very special place in the cultural and artistic life of
the Central Asian region. This aspect of the region's social life needs to be looked at
from the point of view of its situation as a multinational region within a multinational
socialist state.
185
Chingiz Aitmalov
It would be difficult to overstate the importance of the fact that the age of the
scientific and technological revolution, with its veritable explosion of communication
and information applications in such fields as television, radio and the cinema,
automation and holography, theatrical productions and large-scale son et lumière
shows, has coincided with the promulgation of new cultural values, of education in
humanitarian and social values, of an unprecedented burgeoning of national cultures in
the context of the multilingual international community of peoples. In this connection,
what is happening in Soviet culture merits close attention and study: its task has been to
develop a new, organic cultural synthesis while preserving the valued features and
traditions of each nationality's o w n culture.
Television programmes in all the Central Asian republics are given both in the
national languages and in Russian. Furthermore, programmes are exchanged between
the republics since they are mutually comprehensible, owing to the fact that the local
languages are closely related. This is a factor which serves to enrich both the form and
the content of programmes, as well as to increase significantly the overall amount of
available programme material.
In response to the problems of multinational cultural institutions, dozens of
theatres in Central Asia, especially those in such major administrative centres as
Tashkent, Alma-Ata, Ashkhabad, Dushanbe, Frunze, N u k u s and m a n y other large
towns, have in recent years begun to use information technology, for example for the
provision of simultaneous translation in theatres and the dubbing of films and
translation of the text of plays into two or three languages. This undoubtedly improves
comprehension, thus increasing theatre attendance and enhancing the appreciation of
other cultures.
Films produced by the film industries that exist in each of the Central Asian
republics are as a rule dubbed or subtitled, ensuring wider distribution both within and
outside the U S S R . The result is reflected both in the development of national film
production and in box-office receipts.
Similarly, radio broadcasts in Central Asia are transmitted in several languages at
both the local level and the level of the republics.
While indisputable success has thus been achieved in the use of information
technology to promote the development of national cultures in Central Asia, there is
another side to the coin which stands in obvious and acute contrast thereto, namely the
ever-increasing simplification and mediocrity engendered by global mass culture
stereotypes and a superficial consumer attitude to the benefits of mass information and
communication. This constitutes an extremely urgent problem in the intellectual life of
the twentieth century, one which directly affects the fundamental aesthetic criteria of
literature and the arts, emphasizes the basically anti-artistic tendency of mass culture,
and is an almost universal characteristic of our age, universal not only technologically
but even more intellectually. T h e solution to this problem, judging by all the signs, lies
in separate efforts in each individual country, in each specific instance, so as to
counterbalance the attributes of mass culture by the authentic values of national
cultures. Central Asia is no exception in this respect.
Computers and education
A question of particular urgency today is that of the general introduction of computers

in schools and in higher education. Once again, the republics of Central Asia are n o
186
Information technology in Soviet Central Asia
exception. Computer instruction in the schools of the region is as yet at a rudimentary

stage, and even where a start has been m a d e , the business is being handled in a half-
hearted and incompetent way. T h e State and voluntary bodies are at present making
efforts to develop and introduce computer instruction in all schools as a necessary
component of modern education. It is only by following .the path of information
technology that one can expect the younger generation fully to develop a modern
outlook as it enters the world of the twenty-first century and as scientific and
technological progress reaches n e w heights.
The problem of computer education highlight a crisis which has long existed in
schools and which is especially important as society approaches a n e w technological
breakthrough in its mastery of the material world. Education thus awaits transform-
ation and radical restructuring, a reform of global proportions, in all countries and in
all socio-political systems. The fruits of progress will be shared by all. The power of the
h u m a n mind lies ultimately in the realization of its uniqueness in the Universe. •
187
The growing influence
of microelectronics and
computer technology
in China
Liu Fengqiao
Like many other developing countries, China recognizes the challenges and opportunities
offered by the third industrial revolution, and is rapidly training and equipping its business
and industrial sectors. A particular problem it faces—the handling of Chinese
characters—is now being overcome and this should open the way to the widespread use of
the computer in Chinese society.
With the rapid progress in science and technology have appeared several n e w major
industries, and m a n y of the more traditional industries are being reformed. In this wave
of technical revolution sweeping the world, microelectronics and computer technology
are seen as the actively motive forces. T h e ingenious combination of computers,
communications and control technology should bring about a n e w leap in h u m a n
productivity, and correspondingly a n e w change in the social life of mankind.
China is a developing country. Its government has already recognized that 'the
third industrial revolution' constitutes both a challenge and a perfect opportunity for
the modernization of the country. China can m a k e immediate use of the newest
scientific and technical achievements and 'leap-frog' some conventional stages of
development, such that the process of modernization and the improvement of the
material and spiritual well-being of its people can be accelerated.
In order to meet the challenge of this revolution China must take as its starting
point the existing national conditions. There are one billion people in China, of which
80° o are peasants. T h e economic foundation is still quite frail and the task of
industrialization has not yet been accomplished. Traditional industries must therefore
continue to play a major role in the Chinese economy for some time to c o m e , in order to
meet the basic daily needs of the people. However, the Chinese Government is giving
priority to the use of microelectronics and computer technology in order to speed up
the technical transformation of traditional industries.
Experience shows that microelectronics and computer technology have already
played an important role in recent years, and have produced a great n u m b e r of benefits.
T h e following few examples m a y be mentioned:
— The Beijing Capital Iron and Steel C o . uses a management information system
consisting of four W a n g V S - 1 0 0 , five V S - 8 5 , four VS-45, one O I S and a V A X -
11 /750 computer to carry out production management and process control. T h e
Liu Fengqiao is Director of the China Software Technology Development Centre, and Deputy-Director of
the N e w Technology department of the State Science and Technology Committee. H e can be reached at the
State Science and Technology Committee, 54 Sanlihe, Beijing. People's Republic of China.
189 Impact of science on society, no 146, 189 192

Liu Fengqiao
benefits accruing from this system are calculated to be 6 million R M B (1-82

million U S dollars) per year.
— The Cheng D u Steel Tube C o . uses four H O M A C - 7 0 0 microcomputers to

control itsfiveheating furnaces. The consumption of natural gas is thereby
reduced by 2-5 million m 3 per year, and there is a benefit estimated at 1 million
R M B per year due to the increased life of the furnaces.
— The D a Qing Petroleum-Chemical General Factory uses a DJS-130 minicom-

puter control system to control the storage and shipping of gasolene. The
benefit here is about 4-7 million R M B per year.
— The Second Automobile Factory of China uses computer-aided design ( C A D )

as an engineering tool. Productivity has been increased a hundredfold and the
quality of the drawing has also improved.
The microcomputer revolution
Since the advent of the microcomputer, the computer industry has accelerated
throughout the world. The developed countries are well on their way towards a true
information society. The price of microcomputers is falling rapidly, their functions are
being greatly enhanced, and they are becoming very easy for most users to master.
These factors go to help a developing country like China m a k e the widest use of such
machines. Thus, of the various applications of microelectronics and computer
technology the Chinese Government has paid more attention to the use of microcom-
puters in broad areas of the economy, in science and technology and in society as a
whole.
In order to introduce microcomputer technology into China, the State Science and
Technology Committee of China (SSTCC) decided to import 500 microcomputers in
1979 as a starting point and to train m a n y engineers in their use. After that, more and
more users have come to recognize the advantages of the microcomputer and have
equipped themselves with the new technology.
By the end of 1982, more than ten thousand microcomputers were in use in China.
According to statistics obtained from 853 users at that time, the main areas of
application were as follows:
Training and education 218%

Engineering design 21-5%
Small business management 38-9%
Process control (production) 18-8%
Between 1984 and 1986, the number of microcomputers used in China increased
rapidly. There are n o w some 130000 microcomputers spread over a wide area of
society. A large proportion of the machines in use are in the area of business processing,
and the proportion has increased from the 38-9% in 1982 to 65% in 1986. These figures
show that the microcomputer is playing an important role in the improvement of
management efficiency.
190
Microelectronics and computers in China
The computer and Chinese characters
In the promotion of the computer in China, we encounter a special problem: that is,
h o w to deal with Chinese characters. This problem is especially serious in the area of
business processing, office automation and information retrieval, because the user
requires that the microcomputer is able to input, process, display and output Chinese
characters. If w e are not able to solve this particular problem it will be impossible to use
the computer widely in China and to achieve success.
Since 1980 the S S T C C has promoted research and development ( R & D ) into
Chinese information processing technology. M u c h R & D effort has been put into the
standardization of Chinese characters and Chinese character input, processing, display
and output technologies.
The standard Chinese character set has been accepted by the International
Organization for Standardization (ISO) as an international standard. W o r k is n o w in
hand for the selection of a suitable character input method.
Along with achievements in Chinese character processing technology has come a
new typewriter which is able to type both Chinese characters and English (or for that
matter French, Russian or German) characters. This has enabled us to reform
traditional typing methods and, because of the machine's low price and ease of use, it
has rapidly spread and is n o w widely used as part of office automation.
The computer in China today
At the same time a new type-setting system with the capability of processing Chinese
characters is also being developed in China and should have a profound influence on
the country's cultural development.
As for the development of microelectronics and computer technology, China is
continuing with a policy of "importation, assimilation, exploitation and innovation";
the reason for this being that w e can start working from a higher level and not from
square one.
There are n o w about 7000 mainframe, medium-size and minicomputers in China,
as well as 130000 microcomputers. T h e production capacity of microcomputers is
some 50 000 units per year. There are no less than 100 000 personnel working in the area
of computers in the country, the breakdown being as follows:
R & D , manufacture 30000

Computing services 20000
Application 40000
Education 10000
O f these, the number of software personnel is about 30000.

Based on practical experience, w e feel strongly that the training of more qualified
personnel is very important. For example, during the last three years, microcomputers
have increased greatly in number, yet there are not enough qualified personnel to
develop the necessary software; hence the available computing resources are not being
fully used. However, education and training is being strengthened. At present, about
100 universities or colleges have set up computer departments and about 6000
graduates are being produced each year. More than 600 high schools have optional
courses on microcomputers and over 400000 students have already taken them.
191
Microelectronics and computers in China
In addition to this, the Chinese Government is planning to build a computer system

for national economy management, banking, power station control and electrical
distribution, railway operations, civil aviation, scientific information retrieval and so
on. Efforts are also being m a d e in the areas of numerically controlled machines,
computer-aided design and manufacturing ( C A D / C A M ) , flexible manufacturing
systems and office automation. T h e establishment of such systems involves the
development of a large amount of special application software.
The need for software
The production of computer hardware has already taken on a modern industrialized

and automatized approach. O n the other hand, the production of software has yet to be
upgraded from the level of a cottage industry in China. A s the scale of software
production becomes larger, so its quality is more and more difficult to control and
guarantee.
In recent years, the Chinese Government has been paying great attention to the
development of software engineering. The State Council authorized the State Science
and Technology Committee to set up the China Software Technology Development
centre ( C S T D C ) . and the latter initiated the following programmes in 1984:
1. Training of high-level software engineers capable of using methods of software

engineering. With all the lectures and instructional materials imported from the
United States of America, the major target of this programme is to educate high-
level personnel qualified to be system analysts, system designers and managers.
2. Research and development of software methodology and development environ-

ment, involving over 100 experts and professors from 13 universities and
institutes. This programme is aimed at the establishment of criteria for the
software development process and quality control, and the availability of
software tools for software production, testing and maintenance.
3. The establishment of a modern pilot software factory in which the production of

software is to be carried out by software engineering methodology, the whole
production process being controlled according to software engineering
principles. •
192
Education for
an information age
Blagovest Sendov
Our schoolchildren are destined to inherit a very different world of work from that existing
today. Theirs will truly be a world of information—of computers, information systems and
robots—and most educationalists perceive the need to radically change our system and
methods of education to prepare the young to meet the challenge. In this article a major
experiment in the reorganization of school curricula is described.
The p h e n o m e n o n w e k n o w as the third industrial revolution poses special problems in

thefieldof education. These problems are of vital significance because of the fact that
education itself, as a process, is connected directly with the information technologies—
the basic characteristic of the third industrial revolution. This makes the large-scale
m o v e m e n t towards the use of computers in education that w e arc witnessing today
both logical and consistent. For 25 years the Technical Committee o n Computer
Education (TC-3) of the International Federation of Information Processing has been
working intensively on this issue. Every five years the Committee holds the World
Conference on Computer Education ( W C C E ) , which represents a major forum for the
exchange of experience from around the world. In addition, T C - 3 organizes m a n y
specialized and regional conferences through its various working groups.
Considerable work on computer education issues is carried out by Unesco and this
work is n o w being incorporated and intensified within the newly established
Intergovernmental Informatics P r o g r a m m e , the IIP. (See the article by AndréDanzin
in this issue.)
In addition, of course, there are numerous national projects in computer education,
and seemingly ever-growing efforts o n the part of computer manufacturers to expand
their market into schools.
T h e problems of computer education are also the subject of m u c h attention in
Bulgaria. This attention is expressed in the organization of the International
Conference 'Children in an Information Age' in M a y of every other year in Bulgaria.
The first conference took place in 1985 with the participation of Unesco, IFIP, the
Lyudmila Zhivkova International Foundation, and other international institutions.1
Academician Blagovest Sendov is President of the Committee of Science of the Council of Ministers of the
People's Republic of Bulgaria, and Secretary-General of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. A former Dean
of the Mathematical Faculty and Rector of Sofia University, Academician Sendov's professional interests lie
in approximation theory, mathematical modelling in hiology, and education. Amongst the offices he
currently holds is Vice-President of the Intergovernmental Informatics Programme of Unesco. H e may be
contacted at the following address: Bulgarian Academy of Sciences. 1,7 Noemvri, Sofia 1040, Bulgaria.
1 ?3 Impact of science on society, no. 146. 193-201

Blagovest Sendov
As part of the work carried out on the use of computers in education, experimental
training has been undertaken in Bulgaria since 1979. The experiment is being
conducted in 27 schools by the specially formed Research Group on Education ( R G E )
of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and the Ministry of Education.2 The aim of the
experiment is to prepare the ground in schools for the wider use of information
technology.
The point at issue is not so m u c h the use of computers as instruments of school
training, or information about and instruction for work with computers; rather, the
goal is the thorough reorganization of educational curricula and methods through the
constant and general use of computers in everyday life—in other words a m a n -
computer symbiosis.
The main purpose of this article is to present the educational ideas and practices
adopted in the R G E (Research G r o u p on Education) schools as a means of training
people for the new information age. It is clear that such training could not be achieved
in a completely ready-made form; it is a process that has to be started from the very
beginning.
In addition to specific information about the work of the R G E , I intend to present
some general considerations of the problems of education in an age of information.
Basic hypothesis
The basic hypothesis on which w e are building our educational strategy in the
information age is that the object of education has changed. W h a t do w e mean by this?
W e view the computer as an extension of the h u m a n mind. This concept is widely
accepted and fully realistic. It upholds the unique status of the h u m a n personality and
removes any contradiction between m a n and computer in principle.
F r o m the concept of the computer being an extension of the h u m a n mind it follows
that the aim of education in an information age is the training of children and young
people equipped with computers. Since education is basically dealing with the mind of
the person being trained, it cannot itself remain unchanged as this mind is extended by
the computer. In this sense the object of education has changed.
A n analysis of the character of computer use in education 34 shows that three main
tendencies m a y be distinguished:
— the computer as an object of study;

— the computer as a training device;
— the computer as an extension of the h u m a n mind.
All three trends have their place and future development in education, but the third will
lead to the most profound and essential changes.
W h a t are the major effects of such changes in an information age?
It is natural to expect a basic change in the methods, as well as in the content of
education. Analysis shows that the change in school curricula is particularly significant.
But this change cannot be carried out easily, let alone at once. The reasons lie mainly in
the traditional conservatism of the education system (this conservatism also has its
positive side!), as well as in the constant and still fairly rapid improvement in
computers. W e do not m e a n that the object of education has already changed; it is still
194
Education for an information aye
doing so. All this m e a n s that adequate school training in a n information a g e will
develop as the result of a long a n d difficult process.
A great influence o n the m o d e r n principles of curriculum d e v e l o p m e n t is exerted b y
the so-called B l o o m ' s t a x o n o m y concerning the hierarchic a i m s of education 5 . T h e
latter c a n b e g r o u p e d together in three m a i n d o m a i n s :
(a) the cognitive d o m a i n , concerned with k n o w l e d g e a n d its use;

(b) the affective d o m a i n , concerned with the emotional responses a n d values that
are taught;
(c) the p s y c h o m o t o r d o m a i n , concerned with physical a n d manipulative skills.
A s far as changes in education appropriate to a n information a g e are concerned, the

process will affect m o s t substantially the first d o m a i n of B l o o m ' s t a x o n o m y . T h e
second a n d third d o m a i n s will undergo insignificant changes. Manipulative skills will
probably c h a n g e considerably, h o w e v e r .
Education curricula and knowledge structure
F r o m the history of pedagogy w e learn of the long and varied development of

educational systems as they adjust to serve a particular society. Thus their contents and
methods depend on productive forces and the relationship with the productive sector.
The educational systems in all countries are strongly influenced by their historical and
political development. In spite of existing national differences, there are nevertheless
universal trends and developments that m a y serve as a basis for international
cooperation. Examples of such cooperation, besides the already-mentioned activities of
IFIP and Unesco, are those of the International Committee on Mathematical
Instruction (ICMI), the Committee o n the Teaching of Science (CTS) of the
International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU), and m a n y others.
The basic principle of the Research G r o u p on Education ( R G E ) , whose activitity is
aimed at creating school training for an information age, is the integrity of knowledge.
The principle of integrity, or wholeness, of education is not a n e w one. T h e idea of
studying object and phenomena from different points of view, and involving knowledge
of different school subjects, is a well-known approach, particularly in primary
education. The very integrity of knowledge itself can have different characteristics.
W e m a y take account of the special features of the various subjects, while at the
same time investigating and emphasizing their interconnections. Another approach is
integration on the basis of fundamental ideas from different fields. Methods using
projects are well k n o w n , and achieved great popularity in the twenties and thirties in
the United States, as did the method of complex training in the twenties in the U S S R .
These could both be considered as variants of the integral approach in education.
The integrated approach of the R G E is of a special nature and differs in principle
from other methods of education listed as integral methods. The basic difference lies in
the emphasis placed on the need for the integration of knowledge as a consequence of a
qualitatively new situation—the emergence of new information technologies. This new
situation can be characterized by the following developments.
195
Blagovest Sendov
The school is no longer the sole nor most attractive source of

knowledge
The availability and the continuing rapid development of the information

technologies—radio, T V and computer networks—provide for the quick and u n -
hindered acquisition of knowledge in a pleasant atmosphere. These sources therefore
prove to be strong competition for the school. However, there is one aspect of school
education that cannot be rivalled by other sources of information. This is the -so far-
unique commitment and capacity of the school to provide systematized and well-
structured knowledge. Hence in the age of highly advanced information technologies
the main preoccupation of the school should be the systematization and structuring of
knowledge whereby emphasis is laid on fundamental and universally valid principles.
In this sense, the integration of knowledge acquires a special significance. The purpose
of the integral approach to education in our information age is not to confine the
learning in different spheres to a certain body of facts needed to carry out a definite
practical job, or to develop a project. W h a t w e have in mind is just the opposite. It is to
have the attention of the student concentrated u p o n basic and valid principles from the
viewpoint of a large number of scientific subjects, making possible further independent
study and the utilization of specific information through the information technologies.
It is easy enough to formulate this requirement in principle, of course, but it is rather
m o r e difficult to implement it as a particular learning process incorporating curricula,
textbooks and study aids. W e shall dwell further o n its actual implementation by the
R G E to date.
The school is not in a position to provide sufficient knowledge

for the entire range of man's working life
T h e a m o u n t of c h a n g e that m a n will experience during his lifetime in the world a b o u t

h i m is likely to increase e n o r m o u s l y in the future, a n d this m e a n s that it will be n o
longer possible for a school to equip the future citizen with e n o u g h k n o w l e d g e a n d
skills to serve a lifetime. T h e r e is n o d o u b t that such a citizen will be compelled to study
all his or her life. S o the chief task facing the school o f today is, a b o v e all, to teach the
pupils h o w to learn. In this respect the integrated a p p r o a c h h a s indisputable
advantages; it enables the student to observe natural a n d social p h e n o m e n a from a
different angle a n d cultivates the need for a constant search for n e w relationships a n d
facts.
The educational system of the R G E
According to the system adopted by the R G E , the entire period of schooling should be
divided into four classic cycles:
(a) primary (4 years; age 6 - 9 ) ;

(b) junior secondary (3 years; age 1 0 - 1 2 ) ;
(c) senior secondary (4 years; age 13-16);
(d) terminal (one year; age 1 7 - 1 8 ) .
196
Education for an information aye
It is the primary cycle for which the R G E has developed a more or lessfinalversion
of its teaching materials and has amassed the greatest experience in implementation
and evaluation.
The primary cycle
The system of textbooks starts with a primer for use during thefirstsemester of the first
year. There is n o other textbook during this time (a single textbook is characteristic of
the entire primary cycle), and the primer is used in school rather than taken h o m e . T h e
main objectives of thisfirstbook are elementary reading, writing with block letters and
digits, and adding and subtracting numbers u p to 20. Although there is only one
textbook, w e differentiate between eight activities, according to the curriculum shown
in table 1.
Item 1 represents the 'hard' studies, and items 2-8 the 'soft'.
In grades 2-A the schedule remains essentially the same.
A n important new factor in the third grade is thefirstforeign language, Russian,
Russian starts with an intensive course of several weeks using a special primer, after
which the regular integrated textbook becomes bilingual. The third year is also marked
by the introduction of handwriting alongside the use of block letters.
The table shows an emphasis on the arts and o n physical culture, and a decrease in
time for 'hard' studies. This is possible because of the intensification brought about by
the integrated approach.
A recent evaluation by an independent government educational laboratory has
shown that the students of the R G E perform no worse than the average student, and yet
have broader interests, are not afraid of school, are not intimidated and are more self-
confident.
T o sum up: the primary cycle has, as its objective, providing initial, non-systematic
knowledge about the child's environment, and achieving a basic literacy in Bulgarian
and Russian. A n attempt is m a d e to reach this goal through an integrated approach
and a relaxed atmosphere to stimulate the child's activity. Neither grading marks, nor
h o m e w o r k are given. All the teaching materials (books, slides, tapes, etc.) remain in
school and are not taken h o m e . Time at h o m e , after a whole 'working day', belongs to
the family. Every class is assigned to teachers: one senior teacher, w h o typically takes
over the 'hard' lessons', and a junior teacher, w h o is responsible for the rest. There is
usually a professional sports teacher available at most of the schools.
Table I Curriculum followed in the primary cycle, grade I.
Activity Lessons per week Lessons per year
1. Reading, writing, calculating 10 302

2. Singing and instrument playing, concert visits 4 122
3. Drawing a n d modelling 3 90
4. Design and construction 5 130
5. Sports (physical culture) 8 238
6. Reading b o o k s 4 122
7. Studying one's homeland 1 32
8. Excursions 16 days per year
197
Blagovest Sendov
The junior secondary cycle
In this cycle there emerges thefirstdifferentiation of disciplines, although the system

still remains integrated horizontally a m o n g disciplines and vertically a m o n g grades.
The next important feature is the advent of a second foreign language, English.
The main disciplines (the 'hard' ones) are 'Language and mathematics', 'Nature' and
'Society'.
'Language and mathematics' is a most unusual discipline and is intended as an
amalgam of general and comparative linguistics, and mathematics. Linguistics (not just
the native language) through phonetics, morphology and syntax, logically comes first,
and an attempt is m a d e to use simple mathematical tools to describe linguistic
phenomena. This was the most difficult textbook to conceive, and it has not yet reached
its final form. Incidentally, the same applies to a lesser degree to all our teaching
materials, which were planned to be continually revised. A great difficulty to overcome
was that the language and literature teachers on the one hand and maths teachers on
the other usually form somewhat distinct groups and it is not at all easy to find and
convince the same person to teach according to such a hybrid textbook. In practice,
two teachers enter the class and team-teach, hopefully in a concerted way. Linguistics
should be comparative, in view of the synchronized study of Bulgarian, Russian,
English and some programming languages.
The next discipline, 'Nature', deals with the sciences. It includes topics from physics,
chemistry, biology, ecology, medicine, and related areas, in a more or less unified,
systematic way, according to the increasing complexity of natural phenomena.
Broadly speaking, the third discipline, 'Society', represents the humanities, but it is
in fact a history of civilization. The backbone of this discipline is history, but not in the
narrow sense of political history of war, conquests and empires. The main emphasis is
on the development of h u m a n society, its productive forces, the history of social
formations and relations, the history of ideas, and especially the history of arts. So
'belles lettres' are included in this textbook (with a supplementary anthology) and are
considered of primary importance because they are the most abstract of the arts (after
music)—a fact that w e are not always aware of. 'Society' has as its objective the
development of an open-minded citizen, respectful of other civilizations and cultures,
and ready to live in a peaceful pluralistic world.
S o m e other features are also characteristic of the j unior secondary cycle. First of all,
a computer-oriented approach is being attempted in all disciplines, but initially in
'Language and mathematics' and in 'Nature'. While in the primary cycle the only
instruments used are calculators, in the secondary cycle personal microcomputers are
playing a m o r e and more substantial role. Although w e are at the beginning of such an
approach, three textbooks o n L O G O are already in use in the junior secondary cycle.
In addition to the three 'hard' disciplines w e have discussed, related optional
activities are available: translation from Russian, translation from English, the
naturalist, and folklore. For all these additional activities special manuals have been
published. T h e children have to choose one of these possible avenues, but can change
after one semester (there is n o 'tunnel system'); they very m u c h enjoy this kind of work,
in which they are the main actors.
There are also two other important disciplines with their o w n textbooks: 'Daily life'
and 'Manufacturing'. 'Daily life' deals with h o m e economics, especially cooking.
'Manufacturing' covers simple crafts and agriculture.
198
Education for an information age
T o s u m up, the junior cycle is a closed one from a logical point of view as well as
from a chronological one. It is assumed that a subsequent cycle, on a higher level, will
follow in the senior secondary cycle. T h e first clustering of concepts and phenomena
arises in the junior cycle, elements of proofs emerge, and afirstbroad overview of
h u m a n history adapted to this age is presented. Individual inclinations are given a first
opportunity of appearing and developing.
Characteristics of the education curricula under

the R G E system.
For good or evil the experimentation of n e w education curricula is subject to m a n y

limitations. Such limitations have also to be taken into consideration by the R G E . A
basic constraint is the need for students, passing a certain grade, to have some basic and
mandatory knowledge as taught in the ordinary school courses. This is dictated by the
occasional moving of families and the resulting change of schools. For this reason the
educational material in the R G E textbook is m a d e consistent with the syllabus of
regular schools countrywide. However, in accordance with the basic principles of the
R G E it is structured and enriched in a special w a y . Here are some examples in this
respect.
Coding and decoding
F r o m the very start of a child's schooling various examples of coding and formal
information processing are introduced. T h e purpose is to accustom pupils to perceive
operators as a natural process from early childhood on. A n example is the coding of
letters by a pair of decimal digits.
A = 01, B = 02, C = 03, . . .
It is possible to compose a variety of entertaining problems using coding and

decoding of texts and formal transformation of sequences of letters and digits.
Once the adding of one-digit numbers is learnt, the students immediately go on to
the addition of two multidigital numbers. T h e addition is carried out using an
algorithm as a reprocessing of two digital codes.
M o r e precisely, the two digital codes (the two numbers) are written one under the
other in a four-line table, as shown below:
1
4 8 1 7 0 6 7
4 7 3 0 4 5 6 3
1 1 1 1 1
7 -
> 1 2 1 6 3 0
W h e n adding 7 + 3 = 10 the one is written in the third line, and the zero in the fourth.
T h e next step is to calculate the s u m 6 + 6 + 1 = 13. T h e one is written in the third line
and the 3 in the fourth. This transition relieves the students from the initial tension of
memorizing the transfer and from difficulties arising from big numbers. W e should note
199
Blagovest Sendov
that at the beginning, w h e n children start to add multi-digital numbers, they d o not
n a m e them as integers, as for example (sec the diagram above) twenty four million eight
hundred and seventeen thousand and sixty seven. They read the number as a digit code.
Reading an integer is m u c h more difficult and is learned later.
At the end of the second year the children use electronic calculators to accomplish
all four arithmetic rules.
Solving verbal problems
Another example of the w a y in which the educational curricula is being changed by the
R G E experiment can be found in the textbook 'Language and mathematics' for the
Junior Secondary Cycle. A s was already mentioned, this textbook tries to integrate
linguistic knowledge of the natural and algorithmic languages with mathematics. Its
final successful form has not yet been reached, but its basic purpose is clear: in an
information age a language to describe different phenomena should be used o n a m u c h
wider basis. For 'ordinary' people the linguistic aspect of mathematics will become
more important.
The above example concerns the system of ordering verbal problems in conven-
tional textbooks in mathematics. These verbal problems illustrate the chapters about a
linear equation of a single argument, a system of two linear equations with two
arguments, a quadratic equation, etc. Solving the mathematic equation is emphasized,
but not the 'translation' of the verbal text from the natural to the mathematical
language. A n elementary analysis shows that it is m u c h harder to use the computer as
translator from the natural to the formal mathematical language, that is to solve the
equation. Therefore, school training in an information age should put the emphasis
upon the translation—since there the h u m a n factor could hardly be eliminated—and
leave the solving of the equations for a second phase, entirely using the computer.
There is yet another aspect of significance. T h e typical verbal problem in the
conventional mathematical textbook is presented in a specific 'problem-solving' way
Figure 1
Bulgarian students
at the secondary
level taking a
practical course
in robotics.
200
Education for an information age
and has nothing in c o m m o n with the real problems in everyday life. This 'problem-
solving' approach does not allow for any information redundancy, any deviation. This
is due to our desire to shift the basis for difficulties from the translation to the problem
solving. N o w , w h e n w e use computers in schools the verbal problems should be graded
by the translation difficulties, not by the difficulties of the equation solving. Real-life
problems should be given for translation from natural to formal mathematical
language, not problems presented in a problem-solving way.
T h e difficulty of translating a verbal problem from natural to a formal mathemat-
ical language, compared with the solving of the equation, is revealed by the following
example. Imagine the complexity of a computer program that could translate any
problem in the existing mathematical textbook from the chapter Linear equation of one
argument. A research group on artificial intelligence has been working on the solution
of this for over a year, but has no significant results as yet.
A huge n u m b e r of examples can be given from mathematical training, as well as
from other school subjects, that show the need for substantial change in educational
curricula in our n e w information age.
Conclusion
Entering the information age is not a simple act; rather it is a long process. T h e change
taking place in education has m a n y aspects. Thefirstand most striking feature of such
change is the application of computers in the school, yet it is true to say that this will
prove the more superficial and painless feature. M u c h more serious and difficult is the
problem of changing the methods and content of education. Although in a n
information age m a n will c o m e to rely u p o n computers, he must always be the leader in
such a symbiosis. That is w h y education must take into consideration its n e w
objective—the student equipped with a computer. In this system, the 'student-
computer', the student must be taught in such a w a y as to excel over the computer, by
using it as an extension of his mind. •
Notes
1. B L . SI-:NDOV and I. S T A N C H E V (eds.). Children in an Information Age, Tomorrow's Problems

Today, Oxford, Pergamon Press. 1986.
2. B. Pr.NKOV and B L . S E N D O V , The Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Research Group on
Education Project, Sofia.
3. B L . S K N D O V , The Computer in the School (in Bulgarian), Komputerat za vas N ° 9-10, 1986,
pp. 6 8.
4. B L . S E N D O V , The Computer- a Teaching Tool (in Russian), Informatika i ohrazovanje, N°l,
1986, pp. 92-94.
5. N . E. G R O N L U N D . Measurement and Evaluation in Teaching, N e w York, Collicr-Macmillan,
1976.
201
Readers' forum
An invitation Reasoned letters that comment, pro or con, on any of the
to readers articles printed in Impact or which present the writer's
view on any subject discussed in Impact are welcomed.
They should be addressed to the Editor, Impact of science
on society, 7 place de Fontenoy, 75700 Paris, France.
203
Looking ahead...
The next issue of Impact of science on society
will deal with
N o . 147 Inventions and society

Authors include: Manfredo Macioti (Delegation of the
Commission of the European Communities for South Asia,
New Delhi) on economic and legal dimensions of
invention; Miklos Bendzsel and Istvan Kiss (National
Office of Inventions, Bureau of Systems Analysis, Budapest),
on the socio-ethical dimension of invention; Susantha
Goonatilake (People's Bank, Sri Lanka) on inventions
and the developing countries; M . Belohlavek (Institute of
Inventions and Patents, Prague) on inventions and patents
in centrally planned economies; Henry Petroski (Duke
University, North Carolina, USA) on inventions spurned:
bridges and the impact of society on technology; Jacques
G . Richardson (consultant, Paris) on the development of
submarine exploration.
N o . 148 New and renewable sources of energy
No. 149 M a n and viruses
204
To understand and cope with natural catastrophes,
a new book
Violent Forces of Nature

Edited by Robert H. Maybury
formerly managing editor
Impact of science o n society
Earthquakes This hook has been prepared for all those concerned with
public policy intended to mitigate the results of nature's
Hurricanes cataclysms; for scientists and engineers planning research
and methods of prevention and 'coping'; for all planners--
Avalanches public and private—making decisions on architectural
standards, community and regional zoning, civil protection,
Tsunami insurance, and other safety measures to safeguard lives and
minimize physical hazard.
Drought The volume is divided into sections related to
earthquakes and their subsidence, mountain hazards,
Volcanoes climatic risks, and preparedness and rescue. A special
chapter on reducing man s vulnerability to these dangers is
Floods the work of E. M . Fournier d'Albe, the eminent
geophysicist.
Land Subsidence
Lightning Robert H . Maybury, editor. Violent Forcea of Nature. 1986. 362 +pp.
$29-50.
ISBN 0-912338-37-7. (Microfiche edition: $13. ISBN 0-912338-38-5.)
Wind Shear
Order form Lomond Publications, Inc.

P.O. Box 88, MT. Airy, M D 21771, U.S.A.
LJ Please send me copies (/Violent Forces of Nature ui $29-50
U Payment of_ is enclosed. (Foreign orders must be drawn on a U.S. bank)
D Please bill me. {Postage and handling charges will be added to orders that are billed)
!J Please charge my U Visa D Mastercard account

Account number (please PRI NT clearly) Expiry date
Phone orders welcome 1-S00-443-629 Signature
Name
Address
City, Postal Code
Country
Did you k n o w that
educators, research workers and
students can use Unesco coupons to purchase
books, periodicals, films

art work, sheet music
radio and television sets
typewriters
scientific equipmen i
tape-recorders machine tools
musical instruments
measuring instruments
U N E S C O C O U P O N S can also be used to pay for subscriptions to

educational, scientific or cultural publications, for university
registration fees and copyright dues
UNESCO COUPONS are Unesco coupon

issued in the following ,„,„„,,,, „,, , „ , , , „ , , , lL
denominations:
US Dollars ^
VNI
1,000 An-fii&L O P C ^ \ "" K ^ " " '
100
30
10
1
(Blank coupons which can be m a d e out for the sum of 1 to 99 cents also available)
H o w do they work?
in every user country there is a body—often the National C o m m i s s i o n for
U n e s c o — w h i c h is responsible for the sale of the coupons.
Write to U n e s c o C o u p o n s Office, U n e s c o , 7 place d e F o n t e n o y ,
75700 Paris, France, for list of m a i n suppliers participating in the
p r o g r a m m e , as well as for the n a m e a n d address of your country's
U n e s c o C o u p o n Sales Office.
Y o u p a y for the coupons in your own currency a n d enclose the c o u p o n s with your
order to the supplying c o m p a n y of the material y o u w a n t .
f \
Journal
Peace
Research
A n interdisciplinary and international quarterly of
scholarly w o r k in peace research
Vol. 24 No. 2 June 1987

Focus O n :
• Allan M. Din: Nuclear Test Bans
Articles:
• Donna J. Klick: A Balkan Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone: Viability of the Regime
and Implications for Crisis Management
• Ofer Zur: The Psychohistory of Warfare: T h e Co-Evolution of Culture, Psyche
and E n e m y
• Sieve Chan: Growth with Equity: A Test of Olson's Theory for the Asian
Pacific-Rim Countries
• Michael Stohl: Outside of a Small Circle of Friends: States. Genocide,
Mass Killing and the Role of Bystanders
• Arild Underdal: International Cooperation: Transforming "Needs' into
'Deeds'
• Melvin Small: Influencing the Decision Makers: The Vietnam Experience
Review Essay:
• Johan Gaining: Only O n e Quarrel with Kenneth Boulding
To: Norwegian University Press Journal of Peace Research

P O Box 2959 Toyen, 0608 Oslo 6, Norway ISSN 0007-5035
D Please enter my/our subscription to Journal of Peace Research
Rates 1987 (postage included)
Nordic countries only: D Institutions N O K 280,- D Individuals N O K 230,-
All other countries: • Institutions U S D 47.00 D Individuals U S D 38.00
(Single issues: N O K 90,-/USD 15.00 plus postage)
Airmailed to subscribers in the Americas
Name:
Address:
h Individuals must order direct i rom publisher

D Cheque enclosed D Please send invoice U N E S C O coupons accepted
206BJ
ARE YOU STILL READING
SOMEONE ELSE'S COPY OF ISIS?
I F S O , n o w is the time to enter your o w n subscription. Isis, the official journal of the
History of Science Society, is the leading journal in the field.
Isis keeps over 4,000 subscribers in nearly
fifty countries up to date on all develop-
ments in the history of science with
articles, critiques, and documents and
translations. Its notes and correspondence
and news of the profession provide useful
information to professionals, educators,
scholars, and graduate students.
Lively essay reviews and over 200 book

reviews a year cover every specialty in the
history of science, technology, and
medicine.
In addition to your four quarterly issues of
Isis you will also receive:
• Membership in the History of Science
Society.
• The annual Critical Bibliography, listing
over 3,000 publications in the history of
science, technology and medicine from the
preceding year.
• The triennial Guide to the History of
Science, containing a directory of members
and information on scholarly programs,
societies, and over ninety journals in the
field. The 1986 edition is n o w available.
• The quarterly Newsletter, providing
current news of the profession, including
employment opportunities and approaching
meetings.
History of Science Society Or call T O L L - F R E E

Publications Office, Dept. G X (orders only, please!)
University of Pennsylvania 1-800-341-1522
215 South 34th St. DATATEL-800™
Philadelphia, Pa. 19104-6310 6 A M - 9 P M EST
Y E S ! Please send m e Isis for the calendar year(s) 1987 and 1988
$29 for one year ($16 for students). $54 for two years ($29 for students).
D Check enclosed. D Bill m e . (Issues sent on receipt of payment.)
NAME
ADDRESS
CITY STATE ZIP PHONE( )

Taller

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Taller

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

The third industrial

109 The Intergovernmental Informatics Programme

115 The third industrial revolution: an economic overview

123 The technical database: storage, recovery and utilization of

133 Computer-aided design: a powerful tool at the disposal of

139 Mechanics, electronics and computer science: their integration

161 Fifth-generation computer systems and their impact on society

171 The engineer and the modern technological revolution

177 The twenty-first century corporation

193 Education for an information age

Impact of science on society is also published in Arabic, Chinese, French, Korean,

W e m a y define an industrial revolution as a wave of major innovations linked to each

107 ¡mpih I oj Si'it'/k e nn sot ictY. flu I 4fi. I 07

109 ¡ m pail of \cii'na' on society, n o . 146, 109 I II

reverse the effects of scale by m a k i n g small production units competitive. Conversely,

T o be sure, there is today a 'highly active network of commercial relations, but

U n e s c o in the form of voluntary subsidies additional to the Organization's n o r m a l

T h e IIP C o m m i t t e e , the b o d y responsible for preparing a n d monitoring the

Rahat Nabi Khan

115 Impact of science on society, no. 146. 115 122

computerizing their operations. Functions such as accounting, invoicing, payroll and

A third factor is the use of space satellites in communication, providing an

LANS and VANS

Industrial standards: corporate super-power competition

Computers, robots and manufacturing automation

The question of standards is also important in the field of robotics. Auto-

The acquisition of the TexasfirmE D S (Electronic Data Systems) by General Motors

Globalization: multinational alliances and alignments

T h e developments in the three core technologies of the n e w industrial revolution,

globalization of markets, production, research and development. Multinational

Enter the developing countries

Total integrated circuits 13425 20955 32265

Total semiconductors 17875 26220 38515

t Excludes U S S R and Eastern Europe, but includes China.

with continuing islands of unemployment even in periods of recovery and industrial

Routine interrogation of computer driven databases is now feasible for corporate,

123 Impact oj science on society, no. 146. 123-131

Searching the database

There is a current debate about just w h o should interrogate databases. As there m a y be

Content and correlation

Full-text databases present particular problems. Prominent a m o n g such databases

Databases and publishing

For developing countries a rapid change to a paper-free system of information flow

Possible changes in database organization

In thinking of the hardware problem a useful analogy to have in mind is the

In database terms, the equivalent of the P C is a dispersed information system whose

Copyright and cost

While discs in their m a n y potential variations offer a technological alternative to the

So mobile is the information processing profession that the likely developments in

Every creation necessarily begins with a phase k n o w n as design. Whether it involves

The computer at the service of the designer

Computer-aided design, m o r e c o m m o n l y called C A D , consists of placing the potential

133 Impact of science on soacl\. no. 146, 133-138

descriptive scene in two or three dimensions, to modify it and visualize it on a graphic

The evolution of CAD

T h e use of graphics equipment and the handling of huge volumes of data m a d e C A D a

Ergonomics: transparency and interaction

A computer-aided design system is not merely a collation of geometric data processing

Interaction corresponds to the continuous dialogue between m a n and the machine.

Graphics displays used in C A D have recently undergone an important evolution. T h e

The visualization of three-dimensional objects (see figure 1)

The article to be designed is defined by a mathematical model whose parameters are

Figure I Examples of C A D application. These images were produced on an

Articles defined by 'boundary representation''