Challenge To Sustainability

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Journal of Cleaner Production 앫앫 (2002) 앫앫앫–앫앫앫
www.cleanerproduction.net
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47 The challenge of sustainable development

48 L. Jansen ∗
49 Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 134J, P.O. Box 5, 2600 Delft, The Netherlands
50 Received 6 November 2001; accepted 20 May 2002

51
52 Abstract
53 The challenge of sustainable development is now recognised world wide. Three dimensions are relevant: the interaction between
54 culture, structure and technology, the approaches optimisation–improvement–renewal and the parties involved. Renewal of systems
55 requires new ways of search and design of exploration processes comprising human needs as a starting point, backcasting as a
56 method and jumps in eco-efficiency, measured as factor ‘X’ as orientation. This implies a strategic approach to innovation and
57 breakthroughs in which transdisciplinarity is a key factor to obtain viable results. Dutch experiences reveal that innovation options
558
6
can be identified and innovation paths can be paved. Support conditions were identified; in order to ensure the availability of
59 sufficient capacity, strong efforts must be made in the system of (higher) education. A proposal is made for a European policy
60 to strengthen and spread the system’s renewal approach in interaction with educational renewal.  2002 Published by Elsevier
61 Science Ltd.
62 Keywords: Sustainable development; Sustainable technology; Optimisation–improvement–renewal; Culture–structure–technology; Needs; Eco-

63 efficiency; Factor ‘X’; Future orientation; Long-term strategy; Backcasting; Innovation; Breakthroughs; Systems renewal; Education; Transdisciplin-
64 arity; Funding; Dutch practises
65
66
67
68 1. Introduction In many sectors of the economy, impressive results 83
on conservation of the environment and on prevention 84
69 Should options for breakthroughs to a sustainable of future damage have been achieved. Three approaches 85
70 development be opened and if so, how? This contribution of change can be distinguished (but not separated): 86
71 investigates the necessity of breakthroughs, reports on ‘optimisation–improvement–renewal’. In each of these 87
72 results of Dutch research and expands the experiences approaches a specific interaction between ‘culture, struc- 88
73 to a proposal for a European approach. ture and technology’ can be recognised. In the process 89
74 Since the WECD1 reported on Sustainable Develop- of sustainable development ‘optimisation’ and ‘improve- 90
75 ment in ‘Our common future’ [1] as a basis for the World ment’ with respect to environment have been practised 91
76 Conference on the Environment in Rio de Janeiro (1992) and developed in the last decades supported in policy 92
77 resulting in the Agenda 21, many visions, reports and programs and industrial initiatives gathering the ‘low 93
78 plans on different levels up to the EU, OECD and UNO2 hanging fruits’. 94
79 and from different sources, governments, science, indus- Nevertheless, hardly any options for breakthroughs 95
80 trial organisations, NGOs, have from different points of necessary for a sustainable development were opened. 96
81 view given views on strategies and measures supporting The complexity of the social and political processes 97
82 the process of sustainable development. necessary to initiate breakthroughs may offer severe 98
thresholds. To open such future options, innovation pro- 99
1 cesses have to be initiated on the basis of a clear under- 100

∗
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29 Present address: Kerkeland 16, 6883 HA Velp, The Netherlands. standing of the challenges and acceptance of crucial 101
30 Tel.: +31-10-4182145. values behind the process. 102
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31 E-mail address: jansenleo@hetnet.nl (L. Jansen). In the end three questions have to be answered: 103
1
1037
1038 WECD, World Commission on Environment and Development.
2
1039
1040 EU, European Union; OECD, Organisation Economic
1041 Cooperation and Development; UNO, United Nations Organisations; What: which actions and policies of transition in private 104
11042 UNED, United Nations Environmental Programs. and public have to be undertaken to achieve a sus- 105
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3 0959-6526/02/$ - see front matter  2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.
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221 2 L. Jansen / Journal of Cleaner Production 앫앫 (2002) 앫앫앫–앫앫앫
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106 tainable future by fundamental (technology) system local up to global scales, sustainable development that 158
107 renewal? fulfils peoples needs will require radical improvements 159
108 How: which process, by whom, could breakthrough the in eco-efficiency (depending on assumptions and on spe- 160
109 inertia in an evolutionary way to initiate a broad sup- cific need ranging from a factor of 5 up to 50 [2]). This 161
110 ported movement to achieve these actions and policies? requirement demands fundamental renewal in 162
111 When: when will the combination of urgency of devel- (technological) systems to provide for human needs. 163
112 opment and the time necessary for (fundamental) Since fundamental system renewal takes several decades 164
113 change induce the urgency of action? to move from ‘concept to market’, it is imperative that 165
we initiate renewing innovations in the shortest possible 166
114 On a national scale, experiences have been gained in time to allow sufficient time to meet this challenge. 167
115 general integrated foresight programs for economic Improving eco-efficiency, which will remain an essen- 168
116 development with time scales up to about 15 years. tial element of sustainable development, is unlikely to 169
117 These programs teach how to organise co-operation suffice in the long run for at least two reasons: 170
118 between private parties, public parties and science. The

119 degree of taking sustainable development into account 앫 The report on sustainable development ‘Our common 171
172
120 differs from one to the other. However, a Dutch experi- future’ [1] identifies three leading interconnected 173
121 ence reveals that to achieve renewal the time scale has principles briefly summarised as follows: environ- 174
122 to be stretched up to decades and that backcasting mental efficiency, inter and intragenerational social 175
123 approaches (from need to product and from future to justice and participation in decision-making. 176
124 present) are means to develop creative jump-like 앫 Although the assumed growth of welfare includes 177
178
125 approaches that at the same time open profitable short- rebound effects, this cannot be prolonged endlessly. 179
126 term opportunities. A seven-step iterative and interactive Also eco-efficient growth will in the long run meet 180
5
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6 approach proved to be practicable for different sectors the earth limits. 181
128 in the Netherlands (see Appendix A).

129 The next question is whether and how the policies can Systems renewal therefore is a concept integrating 182
130 be directed to initiate innovation processes to develop technological, cultural and structural elements (Fig. 1). 183
131 sustainable options for the future. On the basis of a gen-

132 eral future orientation on the EU level a framework for 2.1. Dimensions of change 184
133 innovation processes in, respectively, domains of need,

134 in economic sectors and in different regions can be Three interacting dimensions can be distinguished in 185
135 developed. Policies to initiate such innovation processes the process of change to more sustainable patterns of 186
136 should recognise a double approach: top–down and bot- development (Fig. 2). 187
137 tom–up. Changes in societal systems and changes in
138 governmental structures and procedures may run parallel 2.2. Interwovenness of ‘culture–structure–technology’ 188
139 in the sequence ‘optimisation–improvement–renewal’.
140 Depending on time scales, the roles of industry, science Improvements in eco-efficiency should help fulfil 189
141 and technology, NGOs and government can be people’s needs better, from simple items up to complex 190
142 described. technological systems. Achieving this goal will require 191
143 A proposal is made for a stepwise process to break- intensive interacting changes in culture, (institutional) 192
144 through the inertia in an evolutionary way (see Appen- structure and technology (Fig. 3). 193
145 dix B).
1067
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146 2. The challenge of sustainable development
147 “Fulfilling peoples needs of the present and future

148 generations” according to the Brundtland report [1]
149 requires actions that are of the short, medium and long
150 term. ‘Future generations’ may be practically understood
151 to define a context of three generations; a scope people
152 usually have the experience and affinity to comprehend.
153 Three generations cover a period of about 50 years. Con-
154 sidering the almost unavoidable growth of the world
155 population, the desired growth of welfare per capita in
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156 North and South (RIO 21) and the desired (or 1071
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157 ‘necessary’) reduction of environmental pressure from Fig. 1. The challenge of sustainable development. 1073
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situation. This reflects an approach that fosters tran- 209
sitions along three parallel tracks (Figs. 4, 5): 210
1. System optimisation which involves changes in oper- 211

212
ational processes through quality management, main- 213
tenance, auditing, efficiency drives etc., at time scales 214
up to 5 years and with an expected effect on eco- 215
efficiency ranging up to a factor of 1.5. 216
2. System improvements that leave fundamental struc- 217

218
tures and technologies unchanged but produce 219
incremental changes through revision, reorganisation, 220
redesign at time scales from 5 to 20 years and with 221

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an expected effect on eco-efficiency ranging from a 222
1080 Fig. 2. Three interacting dimensions of change for achieving sus- factor of 1.5 up to 5.4 223
1081
1082 tainable development. 3. Systems renewal through jump-like changes that grow 224
225
out of long-term research and affect structure, culture 226
1084
1085
and technology fundamentally at time scales of over 227
20 years. Such drastic renewal of technology demands 228
redefinition of existing technology development 229
approaches and development of new ones at a scale 230
that can produce increases in eco-efficiency by a fac- 231
tor of 5–50, with a ‘factor 20’ as a target (to begin 232

5
6 with for developed countries) [2]. The time scales of 233
these approaches correspond to the time scope of 234
actions as well as to the time scope of their results. 235
These approaches are complimentary. With the first 236
two time has to be gained to develop the third one. 237
2.4. Parties involved 238
The ambition of systems renewal can only be realised 239

1086
1088
1087 through co-operation between relevant stake holders 240
1090
1089 Fig. 3. Interwovenness of culture, structure and technology. who can be grouped as: 241
Governmental bodies. 242
194
195 앫 Culture refers to justifying nature, conditions and vol- Private producing parties. 243
196 ume of societal needs to be fulfilled: sufficiency.

앫 Structure refers to the ability of the economic and
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197
198
199 institutional organisation to fulfil justified needs:

200 effectiveness.
201
202 앫 Technology provides the technical means to fulfil
203 needs: efficiency.
204 2.3. Approaches: optimisation–improvement and

205 redesign–renewal
206 Improvements in eco-efficiency3 must fit with the time

207 frames for decision-making and action that are accepted 1094
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208 in firms and governments, as well as within the current Fig. 4. Different approaches for sustainable development and their 1097
effect on eco-efficiency. 1098
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1 1
3 4
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1044 ‘Eco-efficiency’ is understood as the efficiency in the use of the Based on unpublished preparatory studies for the first Dutch 1048
1049
1045 environment at large (use of materials, space, biodiversity). In this National Environmental Policy Plan (1989) assuming that all that could 1050
1046 study, main attention is paid to the use of materials and space that are be done with existing means to reduce environmental burden, would 1051
1047 relatively easy to measure contrary to biodiversity. be done. 1052
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1107 Fig. 5. Insert caption here.
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244 Science and technology.
Table 2 1258
245 NGOs including consumers and local communities. Characteristics of parties in sustainable development 1260
1259
1266
1263
1269
246 These parties act in their own arena and keep accounts Relevant aspects with respect to SD 1272
247 in their own currency [3]. To ensure broad participation 1276

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1278
5
248
6 in the process of systems renewal stakeholders should Responsibility Attitude Time
249 each be able to recognise the possibility to profit in their horizon 1284
1294
1289
250 arena. At the same time the parties should trust the bal- 1299
251 ance of positions (Table 1). Market/privateExploration of opportunities Active Short

parties 1305
252 In the process of system renewal the specific responsi- Science and Analysis, description Active Short
253 bilities, attitudes and term of action have to be taken into technology 1311
254 account (Table 2). Design Active Long 1316
255 Interaction among these dimensions of change results NGOs Norm setting Active Short 1321
256 in different characterisations of actions and involved Vision development Active Long 1326
Governments Control Reactive Short
257 actors as shown in Table 3. to
private
258 2.5. Systems renewal parties 1334
Planning Reactive Long
259 In industrialised countries like The Netherlands, sys- to
NGOs
260 tem optimisation and system improvement are well and
261 covered by existing policies and policy instruments. The science
262 challenge is to initiate a process of systems renewal.
263 The ‘future generations concept’ implies the necessity 1344
264 to achieve systems renewal within 20–50 years. The Table 3 1345
265 development of a fundamental system renewal takes sev- Culture–structure–technology in subsequent approaches of sus- 1346
tainable development 1348
1347
1182 1358
1353
1363
1183 Table 1 Optimisation Improvement Renewal 1368
1185
1184 Arena and currencies for parties in sustainable development 1378
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1191
1188 1383
1194
Culture Carefulness, Ambitious, pro- Visionary,
1197 Parties thriftiness, active initiative sweeping,
1201
1199
1203 disciplined taking integral 1394
Private production Science NGOs Government Structure Cost saving, Sectoral co- ‘inter–inter’ co-
and regulative, operative, chain operative,
1211 technology image building principle, niche-policies
1223
1217
1229 progressive
Arena Market Scientific Public Politics regulation 1407
1236 world Technology Recycling, Process/product New systems
Currency Bottom-line earnings RecognitionInfluence Power energy efficient, redesign, for functions
and emission, material choice and needs
1244 support preventive 1419
1250 1424
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266 eral decades to move from ‘concept to market’. This acknowledged the necessity of jump-like improvements 316
267 time frame is far beyond terms that are usual in business. in eco-efficiency. In The Netherlands, experience (see 317
268 Given these characteristics, initiating processes of sys- Appendix A) with innovation processes that open 318
269 tems renewal will entail coping with questions and options for radical renewal in technology systems over 319
270 dilemmas such as: the long term can be initiated and managed [7,8]). Sys- 320
tems innovation has been thoroughly investigated and 321
271 How to handle the uncertainties involved in long- practised by the Dutch National Council on Agricultural 322
272 term trends and risks, including variations in risk Research ([9]) and their efforts illustrate that the devel- 323
273 perceptions that are based on different appreciation opment of shared visions and ambitions is possible. 324
274 of normative and scientific analyses and future Backcasting from need to means and from future to 325
275 expectations [4]? present has proved to be a very helpful instrument. 326
276 What new roles and forms of co-operation between It should be noted, that while these Dutch experiences 327
277 market, science and technology, government and were inspired by national policies, they each retain a 328
278 NGOs will be demanded and how will they bring the ‘stand alone’ character specific to the case. This is not 329
279 specific strengths, weaknesses and responsibilities of the case in a New Zealand foresight program [10], how- 330
280 these groups into account? ever, in which a backcasting approach was used to pro- 331
281 How to involve interested actors and stakeholders? duce national development policies for the medium term 332
282 Bridging between the drive of competition and the (15 years). It also appears possible to fit presentations 333
283 necessity of co-operation. ‘Towards an agenda for European Agricultural research’ 334
284 Arrangements crossing (economic) sectoral borders. in a frame corresponding to the STD approach [11]. 335
Organising broad co-operation across borders between 336

285 In systems renewal all aspects of sustainability: physi- economic sectors and between private parties, public 337
5
286
6 cal, economic and social are at stake from a principal parties and science and technology is essential to obtain 338
287 point of view as well as from the practical interest of commitments sufficient to sustain long lasting, viable 339
288 viability of new means, products and processes. This action and research and development programs. Such co- 340
289 requires transparency and participation in the process operation has been successfully organised in the UK 341
290 architecture. foresight programs [12] and in the Portuguese program 342
291 The rules for the architecture of innovation processes
‘Industria Y Tecnologi’ [13] and appears in almost all 343
292 for renewal ranging from small scale up to supranational
other projects. In Sweden a 21st century program based 344
293 may be designed by combining the experiences gained
on backcasting from an orientation on Sustainable 345
294 up to now. Integration of different domains of knowl-
Sweden is being set up [14]. Altogether the conclusion 346
295 edge (disciplines, sectors, institutions) proves to be
is that useful experiences are gained. An undoubtedly 347
296 essential to obtain viable results and broadly supported
incomplete overview is provided in Table 4. 348
297 development processes. The architecture should bridge
298 a number of sincere dilemmas and describe the necessary
299 attitudes of actors and stakeholders to initiate substantial
300 innovation processes. 3.2. Education 349
301 3. Systems renewal, experiences and conditions Consciousness, knowledge and skills are essential 350
human capacities in the process of sustainable develop- 351
302 3.1. Experiences ment. Education is one of the key factors in building 352
these capacities. A more specific focus can be derived 353
303 An essential element to direct development processes for the different operational approaches as identified 354
304 is a broadly shared future orientation such as the com- before (see Fig. 4 and Table 3). In particular, leadership 355
305 mitment to reconstruct and rebuild Europe that was in systems renewal requires transdisciplinary skills and 356
306 manifest in the post (second world war) war period. At knowledge of processes of human change on top of 357
307 a global scale, ‘Our common future’ [1] and Agenda 21 existing disciplinary knowledge and skill especially in 358
308 have provided this kind of orientation. Unfortunately, higher educations [15]. 359
309 this orientation has not been sufficiently concrete to Integration of sustainability in education is increas- 360
310 identify and initiate the necessary governmental sus- ingly being programmed in a number of universities and 361
311 tainable development challenges in terms of eco- high schools. Examples are the Association for Global 362
312 efficiency oriented policies (even Kyoto is very modest Sustainability, a co-operation between MIT 363
313 in its ambitions when compared with the nature of the (Massachusetts Institute for Technology), the ETH 364
314 problem). In the private sphere, however, actors like the (Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich and 365
315 WBCSD [5] and the ‘Factor X’ Institute [6] have the University of Tokyo—and another example is the 366
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1431 Table 4 technology, NGOs and governments that can foster 391
1433
1432 Experiences in systems approach for sustainable development the articulation of strategies for sustainable develop- 392
1439
1436
1442
ment and the development sustainable technologies 393
1445 Aspect
1449
1447 within this framework through the combined efforts 394
1451
Level Time Backcasting Integral Process aim of the stake holders. 395
1463
1462
1461
1460 national/global
scale 5. The development of mechanisms and instruments that 396
397
Future to Need cover long-term private economic risks and ascertain 398
present to the commitment and involvement of private parties in 399
1474 means the development of new technologies. 400
1490
1482
1498
Austria N MT + ± + Regional
1508 Graz dev. 3.4. Renewal, improvement and optimisation 401
Netherlands N MT ± ⫺ ⫺ Systems inn.

1517 (Agri)
Netherlands N LT + + ⫺ Sustain. inn. Broadly shared future orientations serve primarily as 402
1526 (STD) a source for a backcasting procedure to design inno- 403
New N MT + ⫺ + Econ. dev. vation paths for the development of sustainable techno- 404
1535 Zealand logies or policy programs (systems renewal). Once, these 405
1543 Portugal N MT ⫺ ⫺ + Econ. dev. orientations are developed, however, they may also help 406
Sweden N MT + ⫺ ± Sust. econ.
1552 dev. to focus ongoing system optimisation and system 407
1560 UK N MT + ⫺ + Econ. dev. improvement or redesign. 408
1568 WBCSD G MT ⫺ ⫺ ⫺ Sectoral dev.

WCED G LT + + + Exploration
1577 (Brundtland)
3.5. Integral and partial processes, flexibility 409
+ + +
5
6 Factor 10 G LT Exploration
1586 institute A heavily co-ordinated top–down procedure may well 410
Natural N M + + ⫺ Sust. result in a killing bureaucratic system. The expression 411
step and enterprise
1598 LT ‘future orientation’ ‘rather than ‘view’ or ‘picture’ not 412
1606 to say ‘blue print’ is meant to indicate that the orien- 413
tation should be a rough one giving room for specific 414
interpretations and flexible adaptation. Like the WCED 415

367 ‘Education in sustainable development’—program at report ‘Our common future’ (1987) [1] gives an orien- 416
368 Delft University of Technology in The Netherlands.5 tation on development. Another illustration is the com- 417
mon goal in the post (second world war) war period in 418
369 3.3. Preconditions Western Europe: rebuild and reconstruct Europe. Future 419
orientations may well be developed through top–down as 420

370 Starting a process of systems renewal is regarded to well as bottom–up approaches. The bottom–up approach 421
371 be highly imperative. To this end the following con- delivers indications on the desired terms of reference for 422
372 ditions have to be fulfilled: higher levels, but has the disadvantage of lacking in 423
insight into the effects of neighbouring orientations. The 424

373
374 1. Recognition by public and private parties of the need top–down approach indicates the systems borders and 425
375 to develop long-term societal and entrepreneurial stra- may be essential to gain an overview of the dominant 426
376 tegies in the light of ‘rapidly’ changing conditions. robust trends in society and governance. The conclusion 427
377
378 2. Consistent efforts to facilitate the development of is that top–down and bottom–up approaches are compli- 428
379 long-term (±50 years) global and robust future orien- mentary and may be applied without heavy formal co- 429
380 tations at different levels of government through ordination. Communication between relevant parties, 430
381 broad participation. however, is essential. The different levels of exploration 431
382
383 3. Effort by relevant authorities to frame domains of may be regarded as a sequence of divergent and conver- 432
384 needs and to demonstrate that fulfilling these needs gent processes (Fig. 6). 433
385 through available and foreseen technologies will Exploration of the renewal of needs systems has 434
386 cause severe (future) ecological and social tensions at taught us that need systems are interwoven with sectoral 435
387 relevant regional scales. and geographical systems. In sustainable development, 436
388
389 4. Development of mechanisms and instruments for co- these systems as such, depending on their scale and level 437
390 operation among private organisations, science and can benefit from systems renewal. For example, the need 438
for shelter that has to be fulfilled in a geographical 439

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5
A 5-year program will be concluded with a conference ‘Engineer- defined area (region) by means of, among others, ‘con- 440
1055 ing Education in Sustainable Development’ (24 and 25 October 2002), struction facilities’. 441
1056 http://www.odo.tudelft.nl/conference.html. Relevant basic systems are summarised in Table 5. 442
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Lack of knowledge and insights of/in necessary steps, 465
processes, (policy) instruments do not appear to be bar- 466
riers. These are superfluously available. 467
3.7. Dilemmas 468
Putting systems renewal into practice in the STD- 469
research program surfaced tensions between parti- 470
cipants’ standard practices and the requirements of the 471
1112 systems renewal process. The most relevant tensions 472

1114
1113
1115 Fig. 6. Divergence and convergence in systems renewal for different
highlighted in the STD experience include the following: 473
1116 levels of exploration. In the nomenclature of the STD research pro- Process and products: One drawback of systems 474
1117 gramme ‘IP’ means illustration process. This is the process meant to renewal is that it requires a continuous process in the 475
1118 illustrate how in a certain domain the search for sustainable options direction set by terms of reference. Decision makers who 476
1119
1120 and innovation paths can be organised. have to invest in this process usually demand a concrete 477
1615 and recognisable description of the results of the process 478
1616 Table 5 to defend their interest in it. Especially in the early 479
1618
1617 Application of systems renewal in sustainable development phases of development such fixation on a concrete model 480
1622
1620
1624
or goal for the process can block creativity in developing 481
1626 Desired future orientation and systems renewal
1630
1628 new options. This makes funding these phases that are 482
1632
1634 General
essential for obtaining new options a hard job. 483
1638
1636
1640
Disciplinary status ↔ transdisciplinary effectiveness: 484
5
6 Needs Sectors Regional Systems renewal demands fusing knowledge across 485
providing disciplines, sectors and institutions. The status of such 486
1646 means interdisciplinary work remains low, however, in scien- 487

1654
1650
1658 tific publications and in peer evaluations for funding 488
1662 Mobility Chemistry Urban research programs. 489
Nutrition Agriculture Rural
Political competencies ↔ formal representation
1666
490
1670 Housing Services
Water Mech. democracy ↔ participation: In the existing political cul- 491
1675 industry ture, tensions may arise between the participatory 492
1679
decision-making that takes place in systems renewal and 493
formal democratic institutions. In participatory pro- 494
443 3.6. Barriers cesses, governors may accept obligations to the partici- 495
pating parties. In the set-up of a future orientation, for 496
444 For a wide application of system renewal some severe example, the government should commit to facilitating 497
445 barriers have to be overcome. the set-up without claiming more influence than other 498
participating partners. In the political arena, however, the 499
446 Lack of ability and/or will of private enterprises to governor has to defend the result exclusively from his 500
447 develop strategic long-term planning. point of view. Situations in which representatives, who 501
448 Priority for short-term profits and effects in private never participated in the process, demand conflicting 502
449 as well as in public. changes in the outcome are especially destructive. 503
450 Lack of abilities and/or will of governmental bodies

451 to face the consequences and impossibilities of long-
452 term continuation of traditional economic growth in 4. Systems renewal in governmental practises 504
453 view of the growing world population and over

454 exploitation of the environment at large. Policies that promote systems renewal differ essen- 505
455 Non-eco-efficient and non-renewal approach in con- tially from more traditional environmental policies that 506
456 structing physical infrastructural hardware (main point to systems optimisation and systems improvement. 507
457 ports, air ports, motor ways, rail roads etc.) that The degree of uncertainty, the scope of action, the accen- 508
458 block development of new eco-efficient technologies tuation in the sequence from production process to need 509
459 and policies. fulfilment result in essentially differing driving forces 510
460 Inherent resistance to change in large bureaucratic and the effect of administrative incentives implies a dif- 511
461 bodies in public and private. ferent role and attitude from the government. 512
462 Lack of sufficient well-educated change agents to act Compared with system optimisation and system 513
463 as ‘champions’ at different levels and in different improvement, systems renewal is characterised by a long 514
464 domains in private and public. time scale, a high rate of uncertainty, high levels of com- 515
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516 plexity, the involvement of many actors, and strong 앫 Participation in and organising of co-operation 541
542
517 interactions among ‘culture–structure–technology’. between relevant stake holders. 543
518 Consequently this demands a different governmental 앫 Developing structures and opportunities that facilitate 544
545
519 approach that will shape conditions for sustainable the participation of non-industrial stakeholders. 546
520 development (Table 6).

521 Technology forcing by setting (future) standards may Recent developments in the European Union (EU 547
522 lead to systems optimisation and improvement up to Gothenburg declaration [16]) and member states like 548
523 middle long terms, it will not evoke private parties to The Netherlands (Fourth National Environmental Policy 549
524 undertake the risky development of systems renewal. Plan [17]) indicate that awareness about the necessity of 550
525 Government can forbid private parties to act irresponsi- long-term strategic governance is growing. 551
526 bly, but cannot command them to take the future risks Meeting these demands will require a change in 552
527 of development. governmental attitude and structures (as discussed, for 553
528 Against this background, governmental parties have instance, in New Public Management: The Enterprising 554
529 to play an active role in coping new questions and Government; [18]). In time and intensity, these changes 555
530 dilemmas, as mentioned in Section 1. This requires a may run parallel to the subsequent changes in systems 556
531 changing and a more active role for the government with from optimisation on the short term up to renewal at the 557
532 respect to: long term. 558
533
534 앫 Taking responsibility for development of shared
535 future orientations, as a basis for setting up long-term 5. Proposals 559
536 systems renewal programs.

538
537 앫 Sharing risk with private parties and science and tech- The findings and experience of the Dutch Sustainable 560
5
539
6 nology in long-term systems renewal development Technology Development—program suggests a number 561
540 programs (Fig. 7). of proposals for ‘Europe’, and lessons that can be 562
adapted to specific contexts in other parts of the world. 563

1684
1685 Table 6
1686 Approaches in sustainable development: characteristics, operational
5.1. The ambition 564
1688
1687 levels and driving forces, actors and incentives
1698
1693
1703
The ambition is to handle the tension between the 565
Tracks for Optimisation Adaption, improvement Renewal urgency to renew numerous systems to fulfil people’s 566
1710 development and redesign needs and the inertia of processes of fundamental 567
1714
1712
1716 change. On one hand, overacting and neglecting the iner- 568
End of Integrated in tia of change may be counterproductive. On the other 569
process, end process/product
1725 of product
hand, the pace of change has to be sufficient to achieve 570
1737
1731
1743
the timely renewal of major systems. 571
Innovation Incremental Incremental Radical New

type systems 앫 Given the urgency and the necessary scale of systems 572
573
paradigm renewal, the proposal is to attain an ongoing process 574

1753 shift of systems renewal in the industrialised as well as in 575
Nature of Operational Implementational division Conceptual
challenge/managerial
factory concern
the developing nations within the next 15 years. In 576
1762 level general, this approach consists of a process of inter- 577
Driving Real costs savings public image→Believes in LT-dev. active and iterative search in co-operative arrange- 578
1767 forces shared prospects ments among private parties, science and technology 579
AdministrativeRegulation Regulation MT Strategical and governmental parties that take the interaction of 580
incentives fin. support standards development
taxation co-operation
‘culture–structure–technology’ into account. The 581
sectoral application of this approach must respect specific 582
1781 agreements national and regional cultures and traditions. The 583
Degree of Low Low Moderate High scale of a specific systems renewal process must be 584
1788 uncertainty proportionate to the scale of the system and its effects. 585
Scope of Micro Micro Meso Macro
1797 action intrasectoral intersectoral
Top–down and bottom–up approaches appear to be 586
Specification Process Process/materials

Materials/product/function
Function/need complementary. 587
1804 level 앫 The Copernicus Charter (a RIO 1992 initiative to inte- 588
589
Most Private Private Private University/techn. grate sustainable development in higher education 590
relevant enterprise enterprise enterprise/techn.
institute/private world wide) must be implemented within 10 years to 591
operational institutes enterprise
1819 contributers
guarantee sufficient capacity building. Experience 592
1825 with the embedding SD in educational systems gained 593
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1
31123
1124
1125
1127
1126
1129
1128 Fig. 7. Public and private funding of systems renewal.
594 up to now should be extended and practised. Back- with regard to technology. There was no clear vision 615
595 casting suggests the stepwise approach as shown in about the role of technology in the process of sustainable 616
596 Fig. 8. development, however. Up to then claims on 617
(environmental) technology had a defensive and 618

5
597
6 The conclusion drawn from this exercise is that the reactive nature. 619
598 architecture of the renewal process has to deliver opport- During the 1990s the ‘factor X’ approach gained rec- 620
599 unities to materialise these profits. ognition. Analyses have shown the urgency of the ques- 621
tion and experiments in real situations have shown the 622
600 5.2. The steps possibility and the outlook on the profits of systems 623
renewal. But it has become absolutely clear that sincere 624
601 Ten years of experience in The Netherlands (see efforts are necessary to get the process going. 625
602 Appendix A) shows that ‘learning by doing’ is an effec- Essentially two parallel paths have to be paved: 626
603 tive way to involve relevant parties. In the early 1990s,

604 two conditions were fulfilled opening a window to set 앫 Gaining experience with systems renewal in ever 627
628
605 up a program to investigate the what, how and who of growing circles (‘Stone in the pond’ model) and 629
606 systems renewal. At the right moment, the problem win- 앫 Building capacity in educational systems [20]. 630
631
607 dow and the political window [19] were both opened.
For both paths sufficient experience is required to 632
608 The problem window was accessible because industry
make a start. 633
609 and science and technology were suffering from a bad
Elements of these pathways are given in Appendix B. 634
610 image. The Sustainable Technology Development pro-
611 gram offered an opportunity to illustrate the positive role 5.3. The start 635
612 of technology while contributing to a sustainable society.
613 The political window was opened when the first Dutch From Appendix B: Atelier to exchange national 636
614 National Environment Policy Plan formulated strategies experiences with (near) systems renewal under the guid- 637
1132
1133
1134
1136
1135
1138
1137 Fig. 8. Steps on the way to systems renewal for sustainable development: in education and governance.
3
4
ARTICLE IN PRESS
1
3
638 ance of JRC in co-operation with OECD International 6.1. The program: ‘Sustainable Technology 682
639 Futures Program, UNEP DTIE, WBCSD and the Factor Development’. Scope: System Renewal projects ⬎20 683
640 X Institute.6 years (1993–1997, 12 mln Euro) (see Appendix A) 684
641 To evaluate the experiences in different countries and

642 international settings, to gain support for the ambition,
643 and a viable proposition to relevant authorities and insti- The interministerial research program ‘Sustainable 685
644 tutions, a well prepared 2 or 3 day Atelier with 30–50 Technology Development’ was set up, inspired by the 686
645 participants may be very fruitful. The preparation could report ‘Our common future’ of the World Commission 687
646 consist of bilateral communication on the experiences, on Environment and Development (1987) [1] and fol- 688
647 on the interests of the participants and of stakeholder lowing the Dutch National Environmental Policy Plans 689
648 analysis (arenas and materialised currencies) of the auth- [22]. The basic question was whether, how and to what 690
649 orities and institutions that are supposed to play a role extent technology could contribute to satisfying the 691
650 in the continuation. human needs of future generations and bridging the ten- 692
651 The United Nations University of Tokyo and the Fac- sion between ecology and economy. 693
652 tor 10 Institute prepared and organised an International The STD approach to positioning technology as inter- 694
653 Workshop on ‘Synergies and Co-operation in Integrative woven with culture and (economic and institutional) 695
654 Approaches towards Eco-Restructuring’ in Carnoules structure required co-operation between industry, 696
655 (Provence, France) in June 2000. The results of this science and government and collaborating across the 697
656 workshop, [21] would be useful for such an Atelier. borders between disciplines, sectors and institutions in 698
interactive and iterative search. The STD program incor- 699
porated as elements of its constitution concerted action 700
657 6. Dutch practises and participation in communicative learning by doing, 701
5 interaction between culture, structure and technology, 702

6
658 Since the early 1990s some new instruments have backcasting from future to present and from needs to 703
659 been introduced in Dutch policies regarding the initiation products, and iterative and interactive search (Fig. 9). 704
660 of medium to long-term innovation processes to The program produced a seven-step iterative and 705
661 strengthen the economy taking long-term goals into con- interactive approach suitable to initiate innovation pro- 706
662 sideration: cesses opening options for future (sustainable) techno- 707
logies (Manual [23], Fig. 10). Experience in the program 708
663
664 앫 The interministerial research program; ‘Sustainable suggests that backcasting from future views to the 709
665 Technology Development’. present and from needs to means appeared to be a fruit- 710
666
667 앫 The EET: ‘Ecology–Economy–Technology Program’. ful approach (Fig. 11). 711
668
669 앫 The ICES: ‘Economic Structure Knowledge Infra- The conclusion drawn from this exercise is that the 712
670 structure Programs’ such as architecture of the renewal process has to deliver opport- 713
unities to materialise these profits (Figs. 12, 13). 714
671 ‘NIDO’: Dutch Initiative for Sustainable Develop-

672 ment.
673 ‘HABIFORM’: Expertise centre for multifunctional
1140
674 use of space. 1141
675 ‘CONNECT’: Centre for Transportation.

676 ‘AKK’: Agricultural Chain Knowledge centre.
677 ‘KLICT’: Economic Chain Management Centre.
678 ‘Delfts Cluster’: Centre for civil technical works.
679 ‘SKK’: Expertise centre for soil conservation.
680 And some 10 other centres or co-operation struc-
681 tures.
1
6
1057
1058 EU Joint Research Centre (http://www.jrc.es). Organisation for
1059 Economic Cooperation and Development, International Futures Pro-
1060 gram (http://www1.oecd.org). United Nations Environmental Program
1061 Division, Division technology, industry and economics 1142
1062 (http//:www.uneptie.org). World Business Council for Sustainable 1144
1143
1063 Development, (http://www.wbcsd.ch). Factor 10 Institute, Fig. 9. Backcasting from future to present and from needs to pro- 1145
1064 (http://www.factor10-institute.org). ducts. 1146
1147
3
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1
31149
1150
7. Postscript 715
In the late 1990s the process of developing options 716
for breakthroughs to a sustainable development has 717
accelerated. The first steps were undertaken in joint 718
efforts in the early 1990s by parties like the Factor 10 719
Club, the World Business Council for Sustainable 720
Development and the UNEP Cleaner Production 721
Division. In the late 1990s the question of ‘how’ was 722
put on the agenda in the EU 5th Framework (e.g. in 723
the EU JRC STRATA program [24]). The core of this 724
contribution to the European Conference on Cleaner Pro- 725
duction in Lund, May 2001, was presented earlier in a 726
STRATA workshop in Maastricht in January 2000. 727
1151
Since then the Factor 10 Institute has published an analy- 728
1153
1152
sis of complementary approaches to the ‘how’ question 729
1155
1154 Fig. 10. Mission of the STD program.
[20]. The EU JRC has set up an inventory and analysis 730
of sustainability directed research programs. The final 731

1157
1158 report on this ESTO project is expected soon [25]. In 732
the STRATA program, the AIRP project was started in 733
January 2002 with the goal of completing the project by 734
mid 2003 [26]. This project aims to deliver recommen- 735

5
6 dations for new programs on the options for sustainable 736
development and their contexts. UNIDO7 is setting up 737
regional programs in South America. These recent acce- 738
lerating developments give rise to the expectation that 739
this decade 2000–2010 will deliver a foundation of co- 740
operation between the entrepreneurial world, science, 741
NGOs, local communities and governments to open 742
options for innovative sustainability oriented processes 743
on micro-, meso-, and macro-scales. 744
1159 8. Conclusions 745

1161
1160
1163
1162 Fig. 11. Backcasting from need to technology.
앫 Sustainable development requires breakthroughs to 746
747
innovative system renewals. 748

1165
1166 앫 Experience has been gained in ‘learning by doing 749
750
research’ and in several programs (ESTO) by organis- 751
ing systems renewal on micro- and meso-scales. 752
앫 EU institutions and some EU member countries show 753

754
a growing interest in the development of concepts for 755
breakthroughs to sustainable development. 756
앫 EU institutions and some EU member countries are 757

758
in search of mechanisms to initiate and evaluate 759
properties of programs on systems renewal for sus- 760
tainable development and the contextual conditions 761
for such programs. 762
앫 Development of human capacities to achieve systems 763

764
renewal requires education in (additional) transdisci- 765
plinary knowledge and skills in higher education. 766
앫 In higher education, initiatives to develop methods 767

768
1167
1169
1168
and approaches to integrate sustainable development 769
1171
1170 Fig. 12. Backcasting from future to present.
1
7
UNIDO, United Nations Industrial Development Co-operation. 1065
1066
3
4
ARTICLE IN PRESS
1
31174
1175
5
6
1176
1178
1177
1180
1179 Fig. 13. Steps in systems renewal.
770 in curricula and research and to develop education in January 1993, was completed in December 1997 [22]. 777
771 transdisciplinary approaches are undertaken. The program was embedded into the Dutch policy mak- 778
ing practises in environmental policies like participative 779
policy making, source orientation, internalisation and 780
772 Appendix A. Systems renewal in seven steps—The self-regulation of target groups within the frameworks 781
773 Dutch Sustainable Technology Development set by the government, on the basis of integrated long- 782
774 program term planning based on quantitative objectives for pol- 783
icy themes. 784
775 The National research program ‘Sustainable Technology Industry, research institutes and government agencies 785
776 Development’, established by five Dutch ministries in co-operated and invested 12 million Euro in this 5-year 786
3
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ARTICLE IN PRESS
1
3
787 program. Some 600 technologists and other scientists 앫 Implementation and realisation of a research and 828
829
788 participated actively and some 2000, including policy- development agenda. 830
789 makers, attended congresses, meetings workshops etc.

790 The program-mission was as presented in Fig. 10.
In each of these steps major stakeholders must be 831
791 The research involved. Also, participation of stakeholders needs to be 832
interdisciplinary and intersectoral. 833
792 Referring to the ‘Brundtland’ report [1] fulfilment of The program produced a guiding manual with rec- 834
793 peoples needs in a sustainable future is the central issue ommendations on how to implement new research direc- 835
794 in the STD program. To raise technology jumps in the tions, knowledge and technologies based on integration 836
795 conceptual phases the future (e.g. 50 years ahead) is the of innovations in technology, culture and structure. Sys- 837
796 starting point to overview and describe the necessary tematic search and problem definition in long-term 838
797 development process. Together this means ‘backcasting’ developments may deliver new and urgent challenges in 839
798 [9] from needs to technologies and from future to research, innovation and development ([23], STD Man- 840
799 present. ual 1997). 841
800 This means that in meeting the innovation challenge, The proposed approach is shown schematically in 842
801 contrary to the forecasting approach, the starting-point Fig. 13. 843
802 of path finding is not the present situation but a future The Illustration projects (outcomes of step 7) resulted 844
803 orientation describing the situation in which the terms in a body of tangible results from 15 projects, devised by 845
804 of reference in the fulfilment of ‘a need’ are met and interdisciplinary teams comprising businesses, centres of 846
805 major trends have been taken into account. This
excellence, social organisations and government agenc- 847
806 approach prevents loss of creativity resulting from being
5 ies. The results are new technological directions, new 848
807
6 bound mentally in the possibilities of the present. In the
research agendas, new organisational structures, new 849
808 Dutch research program several examples show that
products and new business opportunities. 850
809 backcasting can be applied fruitfully in initiating inno-
810 vation processes (Fig. 11).
1833
1834 STD project table
1838
1836
1840
1842 STD projects
1846
1844
1848
1851 Area of need/sector Project (illustration process)
Nutrition Novel protein foods, sustainable land use, high tech agro production, whole crop
1855 utilisation (see also chemistry)
Mobility Underground pipeline transportation of goods, computerised processing of trans-
1859 port demand, hydrogen for mobile applications
1862 Shelter Sustainable district renewal in Rotterdam, sustainable office building
1865 Water chain Integrated sustainable urban/rural waterchain
Chemistry Conversion of hydrocarbons C1-chemistry, new cells for photovoltaic solar energy,
whole crop utilisation, fine chemistry process technology, natural fibre reinforced
1870 composite materials
1873
811 The STD-research showed that backcasting also STD-projects 851
812 delivers intermediate steps in the innovation process.

813 These intermediate steps offer possibilities for shorter- Fifteen initiatives in different sectors of economy 852
814 term economic opportunities. This can be looked upon (nutrition, mobility, shelter, chemistry, water 853
815 as ‘an envelope curve of technologies in advance’ with management) prolonged on their own after the planned 854
816 each of the subsequent technologies having its own S- termination of the program.STD project table 855
817 shaped development curve.

818 The results of the research also show new technologi- STD-program conclusions 856
819 cal directions, new research agendas, new organisational The innovation experiments suggest that: 857
820 structures, new products and new business opportunities

821 (Fig. 12). 앫 Innovation processes scoping the development of 858
859
822 The backcasting approach essentially consists of three technology for a sustainable (long-term) future can be 860
823 major elements: initiated and managed. 861
앫 Shared rough future orientations among relevant 862

863
824
825 앫 Development of a long term vision followed by stakeholders are essential elements in such inno- 864
826
827 앫 Development of a short term approach resulting into vation processes. 865
3
4
ARTICLE IN PRESS
1
3
866
867 앫 Operationalising the essential interaction between of innovations in technology, culture and structure. Sys- 929
868 ‘culture–structure–technology’ requires ongoing and tematic search and problem definition in long-term 930
869 focused attention on the element ‘culture’. The nature developments may deliver new and urgent challenges in 931
870 of the operationalisation differentiates for different research, innovation and development [23, STD Man- 932
871 levels in the program from terms of reference for ual 1997]. 933
872 ‘future visions’ to investigating ‘product viability’ in The proposed approach is shown schematically in 934
873 the market. Fig. 13. 935
874
875 앫 Backcasting from needs to products and from future
876 to present is a powerful tool generating creative
877 approaches in an innovation process. References 936
878
879 앫 It appears that the tension between the (industrial)
880 need for economic medium-term prospects and the [1] Brundtland GHWorld Commission on Environment and Develop- 937
881 orientation to long-term targets that is necessary for ment. Our common future. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 938
1987. 939
882 sustainability can be bridged. In fact, long-term envel- [2] Weterings RAPM, Opschoor JB. The ecocapacity as a challenge 940
883 ope curves can be constructed ‘ex ante’ covering and to technological development. Advisory Council for Research on 941
884 orienting technological development approaches with Nature and Environment, Rijswijk; April 1992. 942
885 intermediate targets and spin-offs. [3] Vasbinder JW, Groen Th. Knowledge valuation in PPP. A model 943
886
887 앫 The tension between the need for broad support and for the valuation process in knowledge generating public–private- 944
partnerships. Accepted for publication. 945
888 innovative creativity can also be bridged; specific [4] WRR (Scientific Council for Government Policies), Duurzame 946
889 methods have been developed to facilitate this pro- risico’s: een blijvend gegeven, Sdu Uitgeverij, Den Haag; 1994. 947
890 cess. ISBN 90-399-0179-6. 948
892
891 앫 Networks on the interfaces of different technological [5] WBCSD Brochure, Geneva, Business Council For Sustainable 949
5
893 disciplines as well as between technological and other Development. World Trade Centre Building 3rd floor, Route de 950
6
l’Aèroport 10, Geneva, Switzerland. 951
894 disciplines can be set up, maintained and oper- [6] Factor 10 Club, Carnoules Declaration, (in English, French, Ger- 952
895 ationalised. man, Italian, Japanese). Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy 953
896
897 앫 Investment in stakeholder analysis based on (bilateral) and Environment; 1995, Döppersweg 19, D-42103 Wuppertal. 954
898 interviews is essential to create continuous support [7] Weaver P, Jansen P, van Grootveld G, van Spiegel E, Vergragt 955
899 and chances for embodiment. P. Sustainable technology development. In: Sheffield: Greenleaf 956
Publishing; 2000. p. 25-6 [ISBN 1 874719 09 8].
앫 Ways have been developed to approach and mobilise
957
900
901
[8] Deutscher Bundestag, Drucksache 14/571/18.03.99, Forschungs- 958
902 stakeholders in specific technology development pro- und Technologie Politik für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung, p. 65. 959
903 jects. [9] Rutten H, Verkaik AP, de Wit J. Using foresight to develop stra- 960
904
905 앫 The STD approach to maintaining an interactive and tegies for science technology and innovation. In: Boekestein A, 961
906 iterative process in innovation and decision-making editor. Towards an agenda for agricultural research in Europe. 962
The Netherlands: Wageningen Pers; 2000. p. 91–9 [ISBN 90- 963
907 proved to be successful. 74134-80-7]. 964
908
909 앫 The role of a champion is essential for the successful [10] Reeve N, Gandar P. The New Zealand foresight project-an over- 965
910 management of an innovation process. Profiles for view. In: Boekestein A, editor. Towards an agenda for agricul- 966
911 key roles (including Champions) in the innovation tural research in Europe. The Netherlands: Wageningen Pers; 967
912 process were established. 2000. p. 101–10 [ISBN 90-74134-80-7]. 968

[11] Jansen JLA. Quality of life, sustainable and world wide, new 969
challenges for agricultural research. In: Boekestein A, editor. 970
Towards an agenda for agricultural research in Europe. The 971
913 Appendix B. Strategy for systems renewal Netherlands: Wageningen Pers; 2000. p. 227–37 [ISBN 90- 972
74134-80-7]. 973
914 The backcasting approach essentially consists of three [12] Rawlins D. The UK foresight program–foresight for the food 974
chain. In: Boekestein A, editor. Towards an agenda for agricul- 975

915 major elements: tural research in Europe. The Netherlands: Wageningen Pers; 976
2000. p. 85–90 [ISBN 90-74134-80-7]. 977
916
917 앫 Development of a long-term vision followed by [13] Gavigan J. IPTS–Joint Research Centre, EC Technology Fore- 978
918
919 앫 Development of a short-term approach resulting into sight for Engineering and Technology in Portugal, Views from 979
920
921 앫 Implementation and realisation of a research and IPTS. Presentation Lisbon 21-01-2000. 980
[14] Swedish Environmental Advisory Council. Tänk nytt, tänk 981
922 development agenda. hållbart!-dialog och samverkan för hållbar utveckling (Thinknew, 982
thinksustainable-dialogue and cooperation for a sustainable 983
923 In each of these steps major stakeholders must be development). ISBN 91-38-21414-8, ISSN 0375-250X. Accepted 984
924 involved. Also, participation of stakeholders needs to be for publication. 985
925 interdisciplinary and intersectoral. [15] Thompson J et al. In: Transdisciplinarity: joint problem solving 986
among science, technology and society. Basel: Birkhaüserp; 987
926 The program produced a guiding manual with rec- 2001. p. 173–80 [ISBN 3-7643-6248-0]. 988
927 ommendations on how to implement new research direc- [16] A sustainable Europe for a better world: a European union strat- 989
928 tions, knowledge and technologies based on integration egy for sustainable development. The Commission’s proposal to 990
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991 the Gothenburg European Council Communication from the [22] Jansen JLA. On search for ecojumps in technology, from future 1013
992 Commission COM 264, 15.5.2001; 2001. visions to technology programs. In: Proceedings of the transdisci- 1014
993 [17] Fourth National Environmental Policy Plan. Tweede Kamer plinarity: joint problem solving among science, technology and 1015
994 2001–2002, 27801, nr 13, for summaries Eng, Fre, Ger, Esp: society, workbook I. Zürich Schweiz: Hafmans sachbuch; 2000. 1016
995 (http://www2.minvrom.nl); 2001. p. 321–5 [ISBN 3-251-40018-5]. 1017
996 [18] Bemelmans ML et al. Renewing government: a tale for all times. [23] Jansen L, Bakker C, Bouwmeester H, Kievid T, van Grootveld 1018
997 Denhardt’s Significance Theory on p 30–31. In: Nelissen N, edi- G, Vergragt Ph. STD Vision 2040-1998, Technology, key to sus- 1019
998 tor. Renewing government, innovative and inspiring visions. tainable prosperity, ten Hagen and Stam, The Hague, dec 1998, 1020
999 Utrecht: International Books; 1999. p. 13–34 [ISBN 90 5727 ISBN 90-71694-86-0, p. 80 (Dutch and English). Key books to 1021
1000 017]. resp: nutrition, transportation, water, chemistry and shelter (each 1022
1001 [19] van Gestel NM. The right moment for governmental renewal, the in Dutch with a summary in English). 1023
1002 John. W. Kingdon’s stream model. In: Nelissen N, editor. [24] EU IPTS TECS. Socio-economic evaluation of public RTD poli- 1024
1003 Renewing government, innovative and inspiring visions. Utrecht: cies. Thematic Network (EPUB/STRATA) Agenda First Work- 1025
1004 International Books; 1999. p. 151–69 [ISBN 90 5727 017]. shop. March 27–28, Seville (http://www.jrc.es). 1026
1005 [20] Robèrt K-H, Schmidt-Bleek F, Aloisi de Larderel J, Basile G, [25] Whitelegg K, Weber M. EU JRC ESTO Project Report: National 1027
1006 Jansen JL, Kuehr R, Price Thomas P, Suzuki M, Hawken P, Research Activities and Sustainable Development. A survey and 1028
1007 Wackernagel M. Strategic sustainable development-selection, assessment of national research initiatives in support of sus- 1029
1008 design and synergies of applied tools. J Cleaner Prod tainable development. 1030
1009 2002;10(3):197–214. [26] Hinterberger F. Adaptive integration of research and policy for 1031
1010 [21] Ehrenfeld J, Conceição P, Heitor MV, Vieira PS. Towards sus- sustainable development-prospects for the European research 1032
1011 tainable universities: challenges for engineering education in the area. Project no. STPA-2001-00007. 1033
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1012 learning economy. Presentation Lisbon 21-01-2000.
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3

47 The challenge of sustainable development

50 Received 6 November 2001; accepted 20 May 2002

62 Keywords: Sustainable development; Sustainable technology; Optimisation–improvement–renewal; Culture–structure–technology; Needs; Eco-

68 1. Introduction In many sectors of the economy, impressive results 83

on conservation of the environment and on prevention 84

71 investigates the necessity of breakthroughs, reports on ‘optimisation–improvement–renewal’. In each of these 87

thresholds. To open such future options, innovation pro- 99

1 cesses have to be initiated on the basis of a clear under- 100

we initiate renewing innovations in the shortest possible 166

118 between private parties, public parties and science. The

128 in the Netherlands (see Appendix A).

131 sustainable options for the future. On the basis of a gen-

133 innovation processes in, respectively, domains of need,

146 2. The challenge of sustainable development

147 “Fulfilling peoples needs of the present and future

sitions along three parallel tracks (Figs. 4, 5): 210

1. System optimisation which involves changes in oper- 211

ational processes through quality management, main- 213

tenance, auditing, efficiency drives etc., at time scales 214

up to 5 years and with an expected effect on eco- 215

efficiency ranging up to a factor of 1.5. 216

2. System improvements that leave fundamental struc- 217

tures and technologies unchanged but produce 219

incremental changes through revision, reorganisation, 220

redesign at time scales from 5 to 20 years and with 221

out of long-term research and affect structure, culture 226

20 years. Such drastic renewal of technology demands 228

redefinition of existing technology development 229

approaches and development of new ones at a scale 230

that can produce increases in eco-efficiency by a fac- 231

tor of 5–50, with a ‘factor 20’ as a target (to begin 232

these approaches correspond to the time scope of 234

actions as well as to the time scope of their results. 235

These approaches are complimentary. With the first 236

two time has to be gained to develop the third one. 237

2.4. Parties involved 238

The ambition of systems renewal can only be realised 239

Governmental bodies. 242

196 ume of societal needs to be fulfilled: sufficiency.

199 institutional organisation to fulfil justified needs:

204 2.3. Approaches: optimisation–improvement and

206 Improvements in eco-efficiency3 must fit with the time

247 in their own currency [3]. To ensure broad participation 1276

251 ance of positions (Table 1). Market/privateExploration of opportunities Active Short

254 account (Table 2). Design Active Long 1316

tems innovation has been thoroughly investigated and 321

Organising broad co-operation across borders between 336

human capacities in the process of sustainable develop- 351

these capacities. A more specific focus can be derived 353

Netherlands N MT ± ⫺ ⫺ Systems inn.

1526 (STD) a source for a backcasting procedure to design inno- 403

1560 UK N MT + ⫺ + Econ. dev. improvement or redesign. 408

1568 WBCSD G MT ⫺ ⫺ ⫺ Sectoral dev.

tation should be a rough one giving room for specific 414

interpretations and flexible adaptation. Like the WCED 415

orientations may well be developed through top–down as 420

insight into the effects of neighbouring orientations. The 424

for shelter that has to be fulfilled in a geographical 439

1056 http://www.odo.tudelft.nl/conference.html. Relevant basic systems are summarised in Table 5. 442

processes, (policy) instruments do not appear to be bar- 466

riers. These are superfluously available. 467

3.7. Dilemmas 468