Climate

Climate Change: Science and Impacts

The Earth’s Climate The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect1
Climate change is altering temperature, precipitation, and sea levels,
and will adversely impact humans and natural systems, including water
resources, human health, human settlements, ecosystems, and
biodiversity. The unprecedented acceleration of climate change over
the last 50 years and the increasing confidence in global climate
models add to the compelling evidence that climate is being affected
by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities.2
Changes in climate should not be confused with changes in weather.
Weather is observed at a particular location on a time scale of hours
or days, and exhibits a high degree of variability, whereas climate is
the long-term average of short-term weather patterns, such as the
annual average temperature or rainfall at a given location. Under a
stable climate, there is an energy balance between incoming solar
radiation (short wave) and outgoing infrared radiation (long wave).
Solar radiation passes through the atmosphere and most is absorbed
by the Earth’s surface. The surface then re-emits some energy as
infrared radiation, a portion of which radiates into space. Increases in
the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reduce the
efficiency with which the Earth’s surface radiates energy to space, thus warming the planet. 3
Climate Forcings
• Any disturbance of the Earth’s balance of incoming and outgoing energy is referred to as a positive or a negative climate forcing. Positive
forcings, such as GHGs, exert a warming influence on the Earth, while negative forcings, such as sulfate aerosols, exert a cooling influence.4
• Increased concentrations of GHGs from anthropogenic sources have increased the absorption and emission of infrared radiation, enhancing
the natural greenhouse effect. Methane and other GHGs are more potent, but CO 2 contributes most to warming because of its prevalence.4
• Anthropogenic GHG emissions, to date, amount to a climate forcing roughly equal to 1% of the net incoming solar energy, or the energy
equivalent of burning 13 million barrels of oil every minute.5
Climate Feedbacks and Inertia
• Climate change is also affected by the Earth’s responses to forcings, known as climate feedbacks. For example, the increase in water
vapor that occurs with warming increases the climate’s sensitivity to CO2 by a factor of two.6
• The depth of the ocean creates a large thermal inertia that slows the response of climate change to forcings; energy balance changes
result in delayed climate response with high momentum.7
• As polar ice melts, less sunlight is reflected and the oceans absorb even more heat.6
• Due to global warming, large reserves of organic matter frozen in subarctic permafrost will thaw and decay, releasing additional CO2
and methane to the atmosphere.8
• If GHG emissions were completely eliminated today, climate change Modeled and Observed Temperatures12 impacts would still
continue for centuries.9 The Earth’s temperature requires 25 to 50 years to reach 60% of its equilibrium response.10
• Today’s emissions will affect future generations; CO2 persists in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.11
Human Influence on Climate
• Separately, neither natural forcings (i.e., volcanic activity and solar variation) nor anthropogenic forcings (i.e., GHGs and aerosols) can
fully explain the warming experienced since 1850.4
• Climate models most closely match the observed temperature trend only when the effects of natural and anthropogenic forcings are
considered together.4
• In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that: “It is extremely likely (>95 % certainty) that human
influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”6

For Complete Set of Factsheets visit css.snre.umich.edu

Observed Impacts
Physical Systems Northwestern Glacier melt, Alaska, 1940-200516
• Average surface temperatures have risen at least 0.78oC (1.4oF) since the mid 1800s.6
• 2015 was the warmest year on record since records began in 1880 and marks the 39 th
consecutive year that annual global temperatures were above average. 2015 global average
ocean temperatures also experienced a record high.13
• During the 20th century, winter temperatures in Alaska and western Canada increased by 3-
4oC (5.4-7.2oF), and Arctic sea-ice thickness declined by about 40% during the late
summer and early autumn in the last three decades.14 In 2015, the annual Arctic sea ice
extent averaged 425,000 square miles below the 1981-2010 average, making this the fifth
smallest annual ice extent on record.15
• U.S. average annual precipitation has increased by 5% over the past 50 years. Most of the increase has come in the form of fewer, more extreme
precipitation events, with 20% more rainfall in the heaviest events.2
• In the 20th century, global mean sea level rose between 17 and 21 cm, after having been quite stable over the previous several thousand years.6
• Snow cover has noticeably decreased in the Northern Hemisphere. From 1967-2012, snow cover extent very likely decreased by 53% in June,
and around 7% in March and April.6 Biological Systems
• Warming that has already occurred is affecting the biological timing (phenology) and geographic range of plant and animal communities.17
Relationships such as predator-prey interactions are affected by these shifts, especially when changes do not occur evenly among species. 18 •
Since the start of the 20th century, the average growing season in the U.S. has lengthened by nearly two weeks.19

Predicted Changes
Increased Temperature Predicted Annual Mean Change in Temperature (oC)
• Between now and 2035, the IPCC predicts that the temperature will rise between
2081-2100 relative to 1986-20056
0.3-0.7°C (0.5-1.3°F). In the long term,
global mean surface temperatures are predicted to rise 0.4-2.6°C (0.7-4.7°F) from
2045-2065 and 0.3-4.8°C (0.5-8.6°F) from 2081-2100, relative to the reference
period of 1986-2005. In the past, a change of 5°C (9oF) most often occurred over
thousands of years.6
• A warming planet does not simply result in higher average daytime temperatures.
The frequency of very hot days increases, while the frequency of very cold days
decreases.6
Ocean Impacts
• By 2100, the average sea level is anticipated to rise between 26 and 82 cm. The rise
will be a result of thermal expansion from warming oceans and additional water
added to the oceans by melting glaciers and ice sheets.6
• The oceans absorb about 27% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, resulting in increased acidity. Even under
conservative projections, coral reefs will be severely impacted.20

Implications for Human and Natural Systems

• Impacts of climate change will vary regionally but are very likely to impose costs which will increase as global temperatures increase.9
• This century, an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances, and other global change drivers will likely exceed many
ecosystems’ capacities for resilience.21 Species extinction, food insecurity, human activity constraints, and limited adaptability are risks associated
with warming at or above predicted temperatures for the year 2100 (4°C or 7°F above pre-industrial levels).9
• With an increase in average global temperatures of 2°C, nearly every summer would be warmer than the hottest 5% of recent summers.22
• A 2-foot rise in sea level would cause relative increases of 2.3 feet in New York City and 3.5 feet in Galveston, TX. 2
• Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation and climate variability would alter the geographic ranges and seasonality of diseases spread
by organisms like mosquitoes.22
• Although higher CO2 concentrations and slight temperature increases can boost crop yields, the negative effects of warming on plant health and
soil moisture lead to lower yields at higher temperatures. Intensified soil and water resource degradation resulting from changes in temperature
and precipitation will further stress agriculture in certain regions.22
1. Adapted from image by W. Elder, National Park Service. 12. Adapted from USGCRP (2009) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States.
2. U.S. Global Change Research Program (2009) Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. 13. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
3. U.S. Global Change Research Program (2000) Climate Change Impacts on the United States, The Potential (2016) “State of the Climate: Global Analysis for Annual 2015.”
Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. 14. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2004) Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.
4. UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and GRID-Arendal (2005) Vital Climate Change Graphics. 15. NOAA, NCDC (2016) “State of the Climate: Global Snow & Ice for Annual 2015.”
5. CSS calculation based on data from UNEP and UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 16. Photo courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center/World Data Center for Glaciology.
(2003) Climate Change Information Kit. 17. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3.
6. IPCC (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. 18. National Research Council (2009) Ecological Impacts of Climate Change.
7. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2014) Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2014. 19. U.S. EPA (2015) Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Length of Growing Season.
8. UNEP (2012) Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost. 20. Cao, L., et al. (2014) Response of ocean acidification to a gradual increase and decrease of atmospheric
9. IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth CO2. Environmental Research Letters, 9(2), 1-9.
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 21. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II
10. Hansen, J., et al. (2005) Earth’s Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications. Science, 229(3): 857. Contributions to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
11. Archer, D., et al. (2009) Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide. Annual Review of Earth and 22. National Research Council (2011) Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts
Planetary Sciences, 37: 117-34. over Decades to Millennia.

Cite as: Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan. 2016. “Climate Change: Science and Impacts Factsheet.” Pub. No. CSS05-19. August 2016
1) Temperatures are breaking records around the world:
The 21st century has seen the most temperature records broken in recorded history. 2016
was the hottest year on record since 1880, according to NASA, with average temperatures
measuring 1.78 degrees Fahrenheit (0.99 degrees Celsius) warmer than the mid-20th
century mean Since the 1950s, every continent has warmed substantially. NASA’s latest
visualizations, above, make that reality stark.
2) There is no scientific debate about the reality of climate change:
Multiple studies show that a massive 97 per cent of researchers believe global warming is
happening But climate change is considered only the third most serious issue facing the
world by the world’s population, behind international terrorism and poverty, hunger and the
lack of drinking water
10 Important Climate Change Facts | CSS, PMS Notes in PDF
Downloaded from www.csstimes.pk | 2
3) Arctic sea ice and glaciers are melting:
Arctic sea ice coverage has shrunk every decade since 1979 by 3.5 to 4.1 per cent. Glaciers
have also been in retreat, including in major mountain ranges like the Alps, Himalayas and
Rockies. In 2017, Arctic sea ice reached a record low for the third straight running
4) Sea levels are rising at their fastest rate in 2,000 years:
Levels are currently rising at their fastest rate for more than 2,000 years and the current
rate of change is 3.4mm a year. In July, a massive crack in the Larson C ice shelf finally gave
way sending a 5,800 square km section of ice into the ocean. The newly formed iceberg is
nearly four times the size of London.
5) Climate change will lead to a refugee crisis:
An average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced since 2008 due to climate
changed-related weather hazards, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees.
10 Important Climate Change Facts | CSS, PMS Notes in PDF
Downloaded from www.csstimes.pk | 3
6) Two-thirds of the Great Barrier Reef has been damaged as a result of
climate change:
In April 2017, it was revealed that two-thirds of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef has been
severely damaged by coral bleaching. As a result, the coral loses its vibrant appearance,
turns white and becomes weaker. Scientists say it will be hard for the damaged coral to
recover.
7) The ocean is 26 percent more acidic than before the Industrial
Revolution:
The pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1, which makes them 26 percent more
acidic now than at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The waters are more acidic
now that at any other point in the last 300,000 years.
8) Global flooding could triple by 2030:
The number of people exposed to flooding each year is at risk of tripling from 21 million to
54 million by 2030, This would result in the economic costs of flooding increasing from £65
billion to around £340 billion.
9) More greenhouse gases are in our atmosphere than any time in
human history:
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reached the milestone of 400 parts
per million for the first time in 2015 and surged again to new records in 2016
10) Earth could warm by six degrees this century:
The Earth’s temperature will continue to rise so long as we continue to produce greenhouse
gases. The estimates for how much temperature will increase by 2100 range from two
degrees Celsius to as much as six degrees Celsius.
Climate Change – A Ticking Bomb

OUTLINE

Introduction
2018 – The Fourth Hottest Year
History of Climate Change
 Warning to Humanity
 World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice
Effects of Global Warming
 Species Extinction
 Food Insecurity and Nutritional Deficiencies
 Farewell to Coastal Cities and Island Nations
 Social Conflict and Mass Migration
 Lethal Heat
 Surging Wildfires
 Hurricanes: More Frequent, More Intense
 Melted Polar Ice and Permafrost
 The Spread of Pathogens
 Dead Corals
Half a Degree Matters
Conclusion
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Globally, the summer of 2018 was intense: deadly wildfires, persistent drought, killer floods and record-breaking heat. Although scientists exercise great
care before linking individual weather events to climate change, the rise in global temperatures caused by human activities has been found to increase the
severity, likelihood and duration of such conditions.

The year 2018 was the fourth-hottest year on record. Only 2015, 2016 and 2017 were hotter. The Paris climate agreement aims to hold temperature rise
below 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, but if humankind carries on its business-as-usual approach to climate change, there’s a 93 per cent chance we’re barreling
toward a world that is 4 degrees Celsius warmer by the end of the century, a potentially catastrophic level of warming.

In 1992, 1,700 scientists around the world issued a chilling “warning to humanity.” The infamous letter declared that humans were on a “collision course”
with the natural world if they did not rein in their environmentally damaging activities.

Such apocalyptic thinking might be easy to mock, and not entirely helpful in inspiring political action if the end times are nigh. In 2017, however, more than
15,000 scientists from 184 countries co-signed their names to an updated—and even bleaker—version of the 1992 manifesto.

The latest version, titled “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice,” asserts that most of the environmental challenges raised in the
original letter—i.e., depletion of freshwater sources, overfishing, plummeting biodiversity, unsustainable human population growth—remain unsolved and
are “getting far worse.”

“Especially troubling is the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising [greenhouse gases] from burning fossil fuels,
deforestation, and agricultural production—particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption,” the paper states.

“Moreover,” the authors wrote, “We have unleashed a mass extinction event, the sixth in roughly 540 million years, wherein many current life forms could
be annihilated or at least committed to extinction by the end of this century.”

But they stressed that “Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out.”

The Amazon, one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, could lose about 70 per cent of its plant and amphibian species and more than 60 per cent of its
birds, mammals and reptile species from unchecked climate change, according to a 2018 study by the University of East Anglia, the James Cook University
and World Wildlife Fund (WWF).

They analyzed the impact of climate change on nearly 80,000 species of plants, birds, mammals, reptiles and amphibians inhabiting the WWF’s 35 “Priority
Places” for conservation.

This incredible loss of biodiversity affects humans, too. “This is not simply about the disappearance of certain species from particular places, but about
profound changes to ecosystems that provide vital services to hundreds of millions of people,” the authors warned.

While climate change could actually benefit colder parts of the world with longer growing seasons, tropical and subtropical regions in Africa, South
America, India and Europe could lose vast chunks of arable land. For coastal countries, rising seas could inundate farming land and drinking water with salt.

Staple crops such as wheat, rice, maize and soybeans, which provide two-thirds of the world’s caloric intake, are sensitive to temperature and precipitation
and to rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. A sweeping 2017 study showed that every degree-Celsius of warming will reduce average global
yields of wheat by 6 per cent, rice by 3.2 per cent, maize by 7.4 per cent and soybeans by 3.1 per cent.

What’s more, according to a recent paper, carbon dioxide levels expected by 2050 will make staple crops such as rice and wheat less nutritious. This could
result in 175 million people becoming zinc deficient (which can cause a wide array of health impacts, including impaired growth and immune function and
impotence) and 122 million people becoming protein deficient (which can cause edema, fat accumulation in liver cells, loss of muscle mass and in children,
stunted growth).

Additionally, the researchers found that more than 1 billion women and children could lose a large portion of their dietary iron intake, putting them at
increased risk of anaemia and other diseases.

Unless we cut heat-trapping greenhouse gases, scientists predict sea levels could rise up to three feet by 2100, according to the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment report.

This could bring high tides and surges from strong storms, and be devastating for the millions of people living in coastal areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a report earlier this year that predicted parts of Miami, New York City and San
Francisco could flood every day by 2100, under a sea-level rise scenario of three feet.

Entire countries could also be swallowed by the sea due to global warming. Kiribati, a nation consisting of 33 atolls and reef islands in the South Pacific, is
expected to be one of the first.

Kiribati won’t be alone. At least eight islands have already disappeared into the Pacific Ocean due to rising sea levels since 2016, and an April study said that
most coral atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century.

In 2017, New York Magazine Deputy Editor David Wallace-Wells wrote an alarming and widely read essay called “The Uninhabitable Earth” that focused
almost entirely on worst-case climate scenarios. He discussed that, with diminished resources and increased migration caused by flooding, “social conflict
could more than double this century.”

The article’s scientific merit has been fiercely debated, but the World Bank did conclude in March 2018 that water scarcity, crop failure and rising sea levels
could displace 143 million people by 2050. The report focused on Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America, which represent 55 per cent of the
developing world’s population. Unsurprisingly, the poorest and most climate-vulnerable areas will be hardest hit.

Today, around 30 per cent of the global population suffers deadly levels of heat and humidity for at least 20 days a year, a 2017 analysis showed. If
emissions continue increasing at current rates, the researchers suggested 74 per cent of the global population—three in four people—will experience more
than 20 days of lethal heat waves.

“Our attitude towards the environment has been so reckless that we are running out of good choices for the future,” Camilo Mora of the University of
Hawaii at Manoa, the study’s lead author, told National Geographic.

“For heatwaves, our options are now between bad or terrible,” he added. “Many people around the world are already paying the ultimate price of
heatwaves.”

The Camp Fire, which burned more than 150,000 acres in Butte County in November, was the deadliest and most destructive fire in California’s history,
killing at least 85 people.

The Mendocino Complex Fire, which started in July and torched roughly 300,000 acres in Northern California, was the largest fire in the state’s modern
history.

The second-largest was 2017’s Thomas Fire, which burned 281,000 acres in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties.

If greenhouse gases continue rising, large fires that burn more than 25,000 acres will increase by 50 per cent by the end of the century, and the volume of
acres that will be burned by wildfires in an average year will increase by 77 per cent, the report said.

“Higher spring and summer temperatures and earlier spring snowmelt typically cause soils to be drier for longer, increasing the likelihood of drought and a
longer wildfire season, particularly in the western United States,” The Union of Concerned Scientists explained in a blog post.

“These hot, dry conditions also increase the likelihood that wildfires will be more intense and long-burning once they are started by lightning strikes or
human error.”
It’s not currently clear if changes in climate directly led to 2017’s major hurricanes, including Harvey, Irma, Maria and Ophelia. What we do know is this:
Moist air over warm ocean water is hurricane fuel.

“Everything in the atmosphere now is impacted by the fact that it’s warmer than it’s ever been,” CNN Senior Meteorologist Brandon Miller said. “There’s
more water vapour in the atmosphere. The ocean is warmer. And all of that really only pushes the impact in one direction, and that is worse: a higher surge
in storms, higher rainfall in storms.”

NOAA concluded this June that, “It is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have
higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes.”

The Arctic is warming at a rate twice as fast as the rest of the planet, and continued loss of ice and snow cover “will cause big changes to ocean currents, to
circulation of the atmosphere, to fisheries and especially to the air temperature, which will warm up because there isn’t any ice cooling the surface
anymore,” Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, told Public Radio International. “That will have an
effect, for instance, on air currents over Greenland, which will increase the melt rate of the Greenland ice sheet.”

Not only that, frozen Arctic soil—or permafrost—is starting to melt, causing the release of methane, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon
dioxide. It’s said that the permafrost holds 1.8 trillion tons of carbon, more than twice as much as is currently suspended in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Wadhams explained that the fear is that the permafrost will melt in “one rapid go.” If that happens, “The amount of methane that comes out will be a huge
pulse, and that would have a detectable climate change, maybe 0.6 of a degree. … So, it would be just a big jerk to the global climate.”

Disturbingly, permafrost is full of pathogens, and its melting could unleash once-frozen bacteria and viruses, The Atlantic reported. In 2016, dozens of
people were hospitalized and a 12-year-old boy died after an outbreak of anthrax in Siberia. More than 2,000 reindeer were also infected. Anthrax hadn’t
been seen in the region for 75 years. The cause? Scientists suggested that a heat wave thawed a reindeer carcass that was infected with the disease decades
ago, according to NPR.

While we shouldn’t get too frightened about Earth’s once-frozen pathogens wiping us out (yet), the warming planet has also widened the geographic ranges
of ticks, mosquitoes and other organisms that carry disease.

“We now have dengue in southern parts of Texas,” George C. Stewart, McKee Professor of Microbial Pathogenesis and chair of the department of
veterinary pathobiology at the University of Missouri, told Scientific American. “Malaria is seen at higher elevations and latitudes as temperatures climb.
And the cholera agent,Vibrio cholerae, replicates better at higher temperatures.”

As the world’s largest carbon sink, our oceans bear the brunt of climate change. But the more carbon it absorbs (about 22 million tons a day), the more
acidic the waters become. This could put a whole host of marine life at risk, including coral reef ecosystems, the thousands of species that depend on them
and the estimated 1 billion people around the globe who rely on healthy reefs for sustenance and income.

According to Science, “Researchers predict that with increasing levels of acidification, most coral reefs will be gradually dissolving away by the end of the
century.”

These climate predictions are worst-case scenarios, but there are many more dangers to consider in our warming world. A report recently published in the
journal Nature Climate Change found “evidence for 467 pathways by which human health, water, food, economy, infrastructure and security have been
recently impacted by climate hazards such as warming, heatwaves, precipitation, drought, floods, fires, storms, sea-level rise and changes in natural land
cover and ocean chemistry.”

Since the 19th century, the Earth has warmed by 1 degree Celsius. Now, a major IPCC special report released in October warns that even just a half-degree
more of warming could be disastrous.

“Every extra bit of warming matters, especially since warming of 1.5ºC or higher increases the risk associated with long-lasting or irreversible changes, such
as the loss of some ecosystems,” said Hans-Otto Pörtner, co-chair of IPCC Working Group II.

The panel said that “limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to 2°C could go hand in hand with ensuring a more sustainable and equitable society.”

By Lorraine Chow

Climate Change: Impacts and Remedies

Outline:
1. Introduction
2. Impacts on the whole world
 a. Rise of Global temperature.
 b. Rise in the Sea level.
 c. Displacement of people.
 d. Acidic Water.
  e. Flood, Hurricane and Tornados.
 f. Volcanic eruptions.
 g. Increase in Droughts.
 h. Impact on Global Economy.
3. Impacts on Pakistan.
 a. Health care
 b. Agricultural and livestock
 c. Energy shortage
 d. Disaster management
 e. Forests and other ecosystem
 f. Effects on Arid and Semi-Arid regions
 g. Economic and Financial costs due to natural disasters.
4. Remedies for Climate change
 a. Use of renewable energy more and more
 b. Afforestation
 c. Public awareness
5. International Agreements on Climate change
 a. Montreal protocol
 b. Kyoto protocol
 c. Paris agreement
6. Pakistan’s response to Climate Change
 a. Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change
 b. Global Change Impact Study Center
 c. Establishment of Ministry of Climate Change
 d. National Disaster Risk and Reduction Policy
 e. Billion tree Tsunami project.
7. Conclusion.
What is climate change impact?

Q. What is climate change impact?

Ans. The most dangerous issue which the world is commonly facing is climate change. It is the gradual rise in Earth's lower atmosphere with far-reaching
impacts. It brings unusual rainfall, natural calamities, devastation to agriculture, extinction of marine life, worse pollution, and death and diseases. Its
impacts on Pakistan are equally harmful; last year's flood endorse this fact. However, to control the menace of atmosphere, the world needs to purse the
“Green Programme”. Less reliance on fossil fuels, use of alternate energy, plantation, awareness, and implementation on Kyoto Protocol are very vital
measure to cope with the issue of climate change. Below is the discussion over three-dimensions of climate change; its impact, implication on Pakistan and
suggestion for tackling the issue.

Impacts of climate change:

1) Change in rainfall patterns: (Acid rain, prolong monsoon) BD: 99, USA: 2004 (hurricanes)
2) Wave of natural calamities: (Tsunami, earthquake, floods) Europe 2002, floods.
3) Effects on agriculture: (South Asia and East Asia)
4) Extinction of species: 30-40 per cent extinction, a prediction

5) Extinction of Island: Bangladesh, Australia, Japan (Three cm rise per decade in sea-level)
6) Pollution
7) Water wars: India – Pakistan
8) Death and diseases: homelessness (100-200m), 150000 deaths, 5m illnesses WHO

Implications for Pakistan (among most affected countries)

1) Water – issue: with India; with provinces

2) Effect on agriculture
3) Floods and cyclones: 99, 2002, 2010
4) Food crises: sugar, floor
5) Displacement of people
6) Death and diseases
7) Economic – crises
8) Urbanisation
Suggestions

1) Less reliance of fossil fuels

2) Use of bio-fuel
3) Plantation and forestation
4) Implementation of Kyoto Protocol
5) Use of geo-thermal energy
6) Use of solar energy
7) Clean technologies
Conclusion:

Climate change is the growing concern of the world as well as of Pakistan. Due to this, the mankind is suffering from worst socio-economic and natural
crisis. Thus, there is an urged need to control anti-earth schemes and nourish earth like a tender flower.

Climate Woes and Population

Outline

Global Climate Change

International Community - Climate Woes and Population
 Developed Vs Non-Developed Countries
The Case of Pakistan
 Sixth Most Populus Country
 Seventh Most Adversely Affected Country by Climate Change
 The Climatic Woes
 Floods
 Extreme Weather Events
 Melting Glaciers
 Disrupting Rainfalls
 Shortage of Water
 Availability of Water Vs. Population (Statistics)
 Some Important Concerns
 The Case of Bangladesh Vs. Pakistan (Population Comparision)
Combating Climate Woes and Population
 Expanding Water Storage Capacity
 Water Conservation
 Reduce Unplanned Pregnancies
 Urgency in Implementation
Conclusion
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Few will contest that global climate change is a serious threat to the future of human welfare. And there is a plethora of suggestions regarding potential
interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as switching to renewable energy sources and making energy use more efficient.

But the international climate community is largely silent about the potential role of reducing population growth as a policy option that can improve the
environment and bring many other health and socioeconomic benefits as well.

This silence may be understandable in the more developed countries that have seen sharply declining birth rates and where issues like aging populations are
now of more concern.

But it has no place in developing countries like Pakistan, where environmental sustainability is threatened not only by growing climate risks but also by the
pressures of a large and still fast-growing population.

With 208 million people, we are the sixth most populous country in the world, and at an intercensal growth of 2.4 percent, our population growth rate is
the highest in South Asia. At the same time, we rank seventh among countries most adversely affected by climate change.

Rising temperatures are disrupting rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, intensifying floods, and causing extreme weather events. But perhaps the most
frightening environmental stress to emerge is the water shortage. We are already water scarce and the situation is projected to worsen over the next 20
years.

Already, large parts of the country are affected by drought, which could spread and intensify with devastating consequences.
A few simple calculations confirm this. Total availability of water resources in Pakistan is currently estimated at around 178 billion cubic meters (BCM).
With our current population size, this translates into 860 cubic meters (m3) per capita, a level indicating scarcity.

At an annual growth rate of 2.1pc, our population will expand to 246m by 2025 and over 300m by 2035. Unless we improve our ability to store and
conserve water, per capita water availability will fall to 730m3 in 2025 and 590m3 in 2035.

Assuming we succeed in building the Diamer-Bhasha dam in time, it will add a precious 9.9 BCM to our water availability, but even then, due to population
growth, per capita availability will only improve to around 770m3 in 2025 and 630m3 in 2035.

Regrettably, Pakistan’s population programme has shown very slow progress in this area. The results of the 2017 census indicate only a negligible decline in
population growth over the last two decades, and the latest Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18 results show hardly any change in fertility
between 2007 and 2018.

A major factor in the neglect of population growth in climate change policy is the common perception that birth rates are not the responsibility of the
government and cannot be changed by its intervention.

This outlook, which is especially prevalent among economists (including prominent experts in Pakistan) assumes that birth rates reflect actual demand for
children, which is not the case.

Each year about 89m unintended pregnancies results in 30m unplanned births in the developing world among women who want to avoid pregnancy but are
not using effective contraception.

The Population Council estimates that there are 4m unwanted pregnancies each year in Pakistan alone. Reasons for non-use of contraceptives include lack
of access to services and the high costs of modern methods. Fear of side effects of methods, disapproval of husbands, and reluctance to violate social
norms are also significant barriers to use.

Voluntary family planning programmes can reduce these obstacles by increasing access to contraceptives, providing subsidies, and expanding method
options, thus contributing to sustained declines in fertility.

The potential impact of such programmes — and the fact that population growth can be reduced substantially, not through coercion, but simply by
avoiding unplanned outcomes — is illustrated best by comparing Bangladesh and Pakistan.

The two countries had almost the same population size in 1980 when Bangladesh implemented one of the world’s most effective voluntary family planning
programmes. In contrast, Pakistan’s programme has until recently been relatively feeble, lacking government funds and most of all commitment.

Not surprisingly, the population trajectories of the two countries have differed sharply since 1980. By 2100, Pakistan’s population is projected to be 178m
more than Bangladesh. This difference will be attributable squarely to the success of the Bangladesh family planning programme.

For now, the government’s response seems focused on expanding water storage capacity. The Prime Minister and Chief Justice of Pakistan Fund for
Diamer Bhasha and Mohmand Dam is a good initiative for improving our water security, but in the longer run, the country must adapt in a way that
ensures equilibrium between future consumption and projected supply.

Water conservation in all sectors, domestic, agricultural, industrial, etc, is an important second avenue to prioritize. But even if we were able to implement
and enforce good practices in time, the alleviation of scarcity would be short-lived unless the number of consumers also stabilizes.

Urgent efforts to reduce unplanned pregnancies and slow population growth must comprise the essential third prong for tackling the water crisis in
Pakistan.

In the international discourse on climate change mitigation and adaptation, developed countries may be excused for wanting to avoid the awkward role of
promoting voluntary family planning in developing countries: after all, it is the developed world that is primarily responsible for causing the climate to
change through its excessive emission of greenhouse gases, and entering into a population policy discussion in the context of climate change might appear
to blame the poor countries for problems created by the rich ones. But countries like ours, which are already facing the brunt of climate change, must focus
urgently on what is a viable and affordable policy option for adaptation.

All of us who care about alleviating Pakistan’s water crisis, and ensuring its sustainable and equitable development — especially the new government —
must prioritize the most obvious and inexpensive solution: focus on population welfare as a key to dealing with climate change stress.

Courtesy: Zeba Sathar | John Bongaarts

The threats of Global warming and the ways to counter it

1. Introduction

a. What is global warming?

b. What are the threats of global warming?
c. Nobel Peace Prize winner’s speech
“Climate change is not a political issue; it’s a moral and spiritual challenge to humankind” –Al Gore (Ex-American Vice President, Environmentalist, and Nobel Peace Prize
winner-2007)

2. Thesis Statement
The world is facing severe global warming and climate change crisis and it is badly affecting the life of all species existing on this planet.

3. Historical Aspects of Global Warming and Climate Change

4. Current Threats of Global Warming

Increasing global temperature
Melting of glaciers
Rising sea levels
Depletion of Ozone Layer
Acid rain
Relentless hurricanes, typhoon, cyclone etc.
Generation of heat waves
Growing long periods of summer season
Destruction of crops and losing of soil fertility
Heat waves and heavy rainfalls

5. Global Warming and Climate Change in Pakistan

6. Causes of Global Warming

Greenhouse gases
Over industrialization
Marked increase in the usage of fossil fuels
Exploration of mines, oil and gas reserves, and digging
Extensive usage of plastic, rubber and glass material
Deforestation
Volcanism

7. Ways to Counter Global Warming

a. Combating Global Warming on International Level

Earth summit 1992

Kyoto Protocol 1997
Bali Summit 2007
Copenhagen Accord 2009
Durban Summit 2011
Fifth IPCC 2014 Report
Paris Summit 2015
UN’s Sustainable Development Goal No. 13: Climate Change
"Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts by regulating emissions and promoting developments in renewable energy."

b. Suggestions
Clean and green renewable energy
More and more plantation of trees
Molding state policies according to International policies on climate change
Smoke filtration in chimneys and vehicles
Employing latest technology
Control CHG Concentrations

8. Conclusion