Renewables in Africa:

A look at PV trends
Michael Taylor
Senior Analyst
mtaylor@irena.org
Renewable cost analysis at IRENA

Fills an important gap in knowledge

World-class database of costs

Cutting edge analysis, not just data

All sectors covered, not just power

Costing Alliance deepens engagement

THE IRENA RENEWABLE
COST DATABASE

3
IRENA’s database: Scope and coverage

Power: 15000 utility-scale projects for LCOE,

1 million small-scale solar PV

Smaller dataset on biofuels/EVs

Stationary applications are being added

Power: database concentrated in non-OECD

as more publicly available information
Power generation and PPA/tender databases

5
Renewable Power
Generation Costs
in 2016

JANUARY 2015
Highlights
The relentless improvement in competiveness
continues

Renewables competing head-to-head with

fossil fuels

Future cost reductions will be more policy

driven
Renewables: Highly competitive for
new capacity
Traditional renewables
highly competitive

Cost reductions for wind

and solar, make them
increasingly competitive

Cost rise for average

hydro projects, geo &
biomass data needs
more work
Each circle represents one project, centre of circle is LCOE value on Y axis, diameter is size of project. Year is the year commissioned.
Solar PV module prices in 2015/16

9
Global solar PV utility-scale projects

Global weighted average

LCOE 2010-16

-68%

10
Tender and PPA results

Dramatic convergence
of solar PV and onshore
wind to same LCOE
range

But some of these

projects are “boundary”
projects, difficult to
replicate for solar PV

11
NEW OPPORTUNITIES
UNLOCKED

12
 Solar PV Costs in Africa

Africa has a need for power: ~600 million lack access

Solar resources make PV an excellent fit

But cost structure is different from other regions

Data collection challenging, but encouraging results

• Some markets relatively competitive

• Very small SHS cost structures are challenging

• Regional deep-dives necessary for greater clarity

Electrification stages using solar PV

source: GIZ, 2015 14

Total system price of PV in Africa
Over 370 data sets from 21 countries in Africa

East Africa: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia

West Africa: Ghana, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Burkina-Faso, Nigeria, Cape

Verde, Mali, Sierra Leone

Central Africa: Congo, Cameroon

North Africa: Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco

Southern Africa: South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe

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Solar PV costs in Africa: Utility-scale

Cost of utility scale projects

continue to fall
On average ~2 USD/W today
Best practice USD 1.5/W
A tendency towards larger
projects
South Africa dominates
installed capacity for the
moment

16
Operating and proposed utility scale solar PV project installed costs in Africa, 2010-2018 (IRENA)
Solar PV Mini- grid cost development in Africa

PV mini-grid system costs by systems size in Africa 2011-2015 17

Solar home systems: An economic solution

In all sub-Saharan
countries, off-grid, SHS can
compete with current
lighting costs

Annual off-grid household expenditure on lighting and mobile phone charging 18

compared to SHS (<1kW) annualized costs, by country (IRENA)
Key findings

Latest proposed utility-scale solar PV projects are targeting competitive

installed cost levels that are comparable to today’s lowest-cost projects

The installed costs of solar PV for mini-grids span a wide range, but recent
and planned projects show examples of competitive cost structures

Solar home systems in Africa are providing better-quality energy services at

the same or lower cost as lighting
from kerosene lanterns in off-grid situations

A sub-regional analysis for Africa could help identify the reasons for cost
differentials, map out strategies to reduce them, and identify roles and
responsibilities
 Renewables are
increasingly competitive

The winners are customers, the

environment and our future
www.irena.org
mtaylor@irena.org
The Power to Change
Cost Reduction Potentials
for Solar and Wind
21
Costs will continue to fall for solar
and wind power technologies to 2025

Large cost differentials

Continued technology
innovation

Growing scale of markets

Policy framework critical to unlocking largest savings

Cost reduction drivers are changing
Cost reduction potential overview

23
 Solar PV: BoS costs
Detailed breakdown of solar PV BoS costs by country, 2015
Low cost Mid cost High cost
Cabling / wiring Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database
Grid connection
Monitoring and control
Racking and mounting The range of BoS costs
between costs groups
Safety and security
1500 Electrical installation
Inspection
Mechanical installation
Costumer acquisition is very large, but BoS
costs also present the
Financing costs
Incentive application
Margin
1000 Permitting
System design
greatest opportunities
201
for reduction potential
500

0
China Germany India UK Italy Jordan France Chile Spain USA Australia Japan
Example: Solar Photovoltaics
Installed system costs to 2025
5000 Module
Inverter
Racking and mounting
Other BoS hardware

Large average cost

4000 Installation/EPC/development
Other

reduction potential
3000

US

2000

1000

2.0
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
BoS dominates potential
1.5

Will require action

by policy makers
1.0
-57%
20

0.5

0.0
2015 Module Inverter BoS Total
2025
 Example: Solar Photovoltaics
LCOE to 2025
0.6
Capacity MWe Weighted average LCOE
1
100
200
≥ 300

0.4
95 percentile

20
ility-scale
Utility solar
ScalePV
PVLCOE
LCOE r..
j t d (2015 USD/kWh
0.2
5 Percentile

0.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Highly dependent on BoS convergence scenario

DISTRIBUTED SOLAR PV IN OECD

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Identify policy questions that need to be asked…..

Average residential
Residential solarPV
PVsystem costcosts
installed (relative to York,
in New 2014 median)
2008 to 2015

Source: NYSERDA

Date Install
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
14000
Average installed cost (2014 USD/kW)
871 10,417
12000

10000
9185
8707

8000 7612

6457

201 6000 5539

4909 4784 4689

4000

2000

Where do costs differ? Why? 28

 IRENAs PV Parity Indicators (Preview)

RealConventional Electricity Rates Analysis

Project cost data PV Parity Analysis
Costs inResults)
Evolution of Costs per Quarter (Preliminary 2014 vs System Size (Preliminary Results)
2014
2010 2011 2012 Comparison
2013 of number of hours2014
in each Tier according2015
to season (Preliminary Results)
1A-JuneNoPV A day in June A day in December
1B-DecNoPV
20 14 0.55 0.55
Day Hour Day Hour
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 1 2.0
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2.0
13 1 we 1 we
we
0.50 wd
0.50
2 2
Measure Names
18 3 wd 3 wd
12 1.8 El. Rate Tier 1 | ($/kWh) 1.8
4 wd 4 wd
El. Rate Tier 2| ($/kWh)
5 wd 0.45 5 wd 0.45
11 6 wd 6 wd El. Rate Tier 3 | ($/kWh)
7 wd 7 we 1.6 El. Rate Tier 4 | ($/kWh) 1.6
8 we 8 we
16 10 0.40 0.40 El. Rate Tier 5 | ($/kWh)
9 we 9 wd
Generation PV system | (kWh)
10 wd 10 wd
11 wd 11 wd
1.4 1.4
9
12 wd 0.35 12 wd 0.35
13 wd 13 wd Active Tier, Demand Status of TOU
14 8
14 wd 14 we Tier 1, off-peak
1.2 1.2
15 we 15 we Tier 1, part-peak
0.30 0.30
16 we 16 wd Tier 1, peak
7 El. Rate Tier 4 | ($/kWh)
El. Rate Tier 4 | ($/kWh)
17 wd 17 wd Tier 2, off-peak
Cos
18 wd US 18 wd 1.0 USD/ kWh Tier 2, part-peak 1.0
12 6
5.95
0.25 0.25
19 wd 19 wd Tier 2, peak

20 wd 20 wd Tier 3, off-peak

5 21 wd 21 we
Generation PV system | (kWh) Tier
El. Rate Tier 3, part-peak
3 | ($/kWh)
Generation PV system | (kWh)
Median Cost per Watt [$/Wdc], 4.71 El. Rate Tier 3 | ($/kWh) 0.8 0.8
22 we 0.20 22 we 0.20 Tier 3, peak

23 we 23 wd
10 4
24 wd 24 wd
3.28 25 wd El. Rate Tier 2| ($/kWh) 25 wd 0.6 0.6
0.15 0.15 hour Qty
Cos 3 26 wd 26 wd 1
El. Rate Tier 1 | ($/kWh)
27 wd El. Rate Tier 1 | ($/kWh) 27 wd
28 wd 28 we
8 2 0.10 0.4 0.10 0.4
29 we 29 we
30 we 30 wd

1 31 wd

0.05 0.2 0.05 0.2

6 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
0.00 peakStart
Nameplate Rating [kW] peakEnd 0.0 0.00 peakStart peakEnd 0.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Hour of Day Hour of Day Hour
4

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
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 COMMERCIAL SOLAR PV COSTS
Installation Date
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
20K Date Install
19068
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

18K
18K

16K
16K

14K
14K

12K
12K

Arizona 10K
10K
US

New York State

8358
US
8K
8K
7,373

6,828

6K 5845
6K 5391
5,466

5,022

4366
4175 3,990
4K 4K

2K
2K

0K 0K
Jan 1 Apr 1Jun Jul
28 1Dec 27 Oct 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Apr 1
Jun 6 Dec 5 Jul 1 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Apr 1
Jun 5Oct Dec 4 Jun 3 DecJul 21 Oct 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Apr 1
Jun 16 Dec 15 Jul 1
Nov 30, 14 Oct 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Apr 1
Dec 14, 14 Jul 1 Oct 1 Jan 1
Day of
Week ofDate Install [2010]
Installation Day..ofWeek
.. Week of Installation Date Install
of Installation Day of Date..Install
[2011] .. Week of Installation Week[2012] DayofofInstallation
of Installation .. Week Date Install [2013] Day
.. Week of Installation .. of Date Install [2014]
30