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Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance of real estate and construction
companies in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during the pre (2006-2007) and post (2008-2009) global
financial crisis periods.
Design/methodology/approach – A ratio analysis was conducted on a sample of six companies in
the real estate and construction sector. A nonparametric test, namely the Wilcoxon matched-pairs
signed rank test, was employed to see whether the calculated ratios differ between the pre-crisis and
post-crisis periods.
Findings – The findings reveal a negative impact of the business cycle on the performance of real
estate companies in the UAE. There is a significant fall in the liquidity, profitability, leverage and
activity ratios after the financial crisis.
Research limitations/implications – The limitations of the study revolve around factors such as
limited sample size, non-availability of data for the aforesaid periods, low transparency in revealing
some financial details and non-availability of yearly industry averages.
Practical implications – The companies in this sector could be obligated to ensure better
transparency in revealing financial information to the public. Implementation of stringent regulatory
policies in the real estate sector will help the unprecedented downturn in these companies.
Originality/value – This is the first empirical study conducted to examine the impact of the global
financial crisis on the performance of the real estate and construction companies in the UAE.
Keywords United Arab Emirates, Construction industry, Real estate, Financial crisis, Ratio analysis,
Wilcoxon test, Profit, Liquidity
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
The regional boom in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been one of the most
prominent topics to hit news headlines for the past several years. This is mainly due to a
plethora of inherent strengths for which the UAE’s economy is legendary around the
world. An increase in oil price has been the most prominent factor acting as a catalyst
to the country’s fame. The prudent policies adopted by the government include
channeling oil revenue into developing non-oil economic sectors, attracting foreign Humanomics
Vol. 29 No. 2, 2013
pp. 115-135
q Emerald Group Publishing Limited
The authors would like to thank Ms Chantal Mercier of the English Language Centre at 0828-8666
ALHOSN University, for her assistance with proofreading the manuscript. DOI 10.1108/08288661311319184
HUM investment and financing various infrastructure, development and housing projects. In
29,2 addition, a highly supportive Government, favorable business climate, flexibility in
legislation that allows 100 percent foreign ownership in Free Trade Areas, dollar
pegging, cultural diversity, high standard of living and good quality of life are other
factors which make it easier for the country to climb the success ladder.
In spite of having these competitive advantages, the global financial crisis which
116 crippled the world economies in 2007 did not fail to leave its mark in a rapidly growing
country like the UAE. Al-Masah Capital Limited released a report in 2011 stating that
UAE contributed to about 60 percent of the property boom in the Gulf Cooperation
Council (GCC) countries, with Dubai alone contributing to 47 percent of the total among
the GCC nations. This effect justifies the argument by Baker (2008, p. 73) that “the central
element in the financial crisis is the housing bubble”. The real estate and construction
sector which emerged as the most attractive destinations for global investors during
2003-2007, was a sector severely affected by this financial blow.
A report released in 2011 on GCC real estate specified that prices and rents dropped by
20-50 percent from their peaks and an estimated $364 billion worth of construction projects
(28 percent of the $1.3 trillion in pipeline) have been put on hold or cancelled in the UAE.
The report also attributed several reasons for a lag in correction of this plummeting trend.
The dominant factors noticed were retreation of foreign investors, decline on expatriate
population due to retrenchments, funding difficulties due to stringent liquidity conditions,
declining consumer confidence in the UAE economy and major imbalances in demand and
supply of housing units. However, several reports argued that Abu Dhabi real estate has
more chances of speedy recovery due to its rich oil reserves and a shortage in supply of
housing units in comparison to the demand. The lack of transparency in real estate
and construction dealings was also another factor which escalated the decline in investor
confidence towards this sector. This is because the GCC market as a whole is basically
considered to be one of the least transparent in disclosure matters in the world compared
to countries like Australia, the USA, France and Germany. The annual Jones Lang La Salle
(JLL) Global Real Estate Transparency Index states that UAE and Bahrain fall under the
semi transparent zone while Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia fall under the low
transparency zone (Al-Masah Limited, 2011). The transparency issue has cornered vast
attention especially after the financial crisis, as investors are now in search of accurate and
reliable information before making investment decisions. Many real estate developers
have began to leave the business arena after forecasting bleak prospects in this sector.
At present there are 11 companies in the real estate and construction sector listed in
the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) and three companies in the Abu Dhabi Securities
Exchange (ADX). This paper will perform an analysis of the performance of six
companies in this sector during pre and post financial crisis. A ratio analysis has been
conducted and 14 ratios have been calculated to prove the effect of the financial turmoil
and to draw an inference about the sector. The overall performances of these companies
have been categorized under four groups of ratios, namely: liquidity ratios; profitability
ratios; financial leverage ratios and turnover ratios. A nonparametric test, namely the
Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test was employed to see whether the calculated
ratios differ between the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. An in-depth analysis of the
ratios reveals a declining trend in the liquidity, profitability, leverage and turnover
position of the companies. This supports the reports related to the overall decline in the
performance of this sector after the crisis.
The remaining part of the paper is structured as follows: Section 2 highlights the UAE real estate
significance of the study while Section 3 sheds light on previous studies and reports and construction
generated in the similar field. Section 4 is dedicated to data collection and methodology
while Section 5 elaborates on the findings and their analysis. Section 6 summarizes the
study offering recommendations to improve the performance of companies in the real
estate sector while Section 7 points out the limitations of the study.
117
2. Significance of the study
The descent of the real estate and construction sector during the financial crisis is still
a topic of great concern and dilemma to the stakeholders in the UAE. Few years before,
investors and real estate developers were reaping benefits out of an unregulated
market which ultimately increased the real estate prices. Such practices, along with the
impact of the global financial crisis, positioned the UAE real estate to become
extremely over-inflated before the bubble finally burst by the end of 2007 and values
began to drop. Dubai further raised eyebrows when the emirate requested the creditors
of Dubai World for a major debt restructuring due to difficulty in debt repayments[1].
Though the real estate and construction sector has shown a recovery from the worst
phase, many of the promised projects will still take time to materialize.
There are a few reasons which act as motivations behind this research. First,
although market experts talk about the general decline in UAE real estate market[2],
there has been no empirical evidence or a comprehensive study conducted in UAE to
prove the same. Second, Wickens’, 1941 NBER Report of, has stressed the necessity of
more research in real estate financing, as this sector is fundamental to any nation’s
wealth (as cited in Nicholas and Scherbina, 2011). Third, this study, to the best of
our knowledge, makes original contribution to the body of knowledge as it examines
the performance of six major UAE real estate companies which have passed through
the financial crisis period. It is also an empirical examination of the impact of financial
crisis on one of the most important sectors in UAE. Fourth, due to the volatile nature
of these companies performance in the region lately, this study will provide a better
understanding of the performance fluctuations in real estate and construction
companies during different business cycles. Various studies addressing the issues
related to real estate and construction have evolved during the years and these will be
highlighted in the next section.
The study was conducted by dividing the period of study into two phases namely the
pre-crisis period (2006-2007) and the post-crisis period (2008-2009). Financial ratio
analysis was adopted as the method to assess the performance of the companies during
both periods. This approach, for example, has been employed by Kesimli and Gunay
(2011) to examine the impact of the global economic crisis on the working capital of real
estate sector in Turkey. Beyer (2010) suggested that the financial risk of companies is
mainly driven through quantitative measures like ratio analysis. Downs and Goodman
(2003) argue that ratios are extremely significant when it comes to making yearly
comparisons or for determining the trend of the industry. Financial ratios are assumed to
be the most popular tool for analyzing a company’s performance. They are helpful in
predicting stock prices, financial risk, and bond yields. The ratios have gained
popularity because of their perceived utility in making financial decisions (Ketz et al.,
1990; Needles et al., 2010). Annual financial statements like the balance sheets and
income statements have been analyzed for the purpose of the study and 14 ratios have
been constructed to deduce the liquidity, solvency, profitability and asset management
situation during the pre- and post-crisis periods.
In order to make inferences about the impact of the financial crisis on the entire real
estate and construction sector in UAE based on our sample, a formal statistical test was
employed. The Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed rank test has been conducted to see
whether the calculated ratios differ between the two periods (pre- and post-crisis).
This test will also enable us to check if the drop/increase in a particular ratio (post-crisis
as compared to pre-crisis period) is statistically significant or not. This test is a
nonparametric alternative to the two-sample t-test. The advantage of the Wilcoxon test
is that it does not require any assumption about the shape of the distribution. In the
present study the pre- and post-crisis samples (n ¼ 12) are quite small, so much less can
be inferred about the distributions. “If the populations are non-normal, particularly for
small samples, then the t-test may not be valid” (Davis and Pecar, 2010, p. 374).
Therefore, it is more appropriate to use a nonparametric test instead of a t-test.
To this end, the null (H0) and the alternative (H1) hypotheses to be tested for the
14 ratios under the study are stated as follows:
H0. The population medians (for a particular ratio) pre- and post-crisis are similar.
H1. The population medians (for a particular ratio) pre- and post-crisis differ.
The results revealed from the adoption of ratios and Wilcoxon test are enumerated in
the next section.
HUM 5. Findings and implications
The present study employs financial ratios that have been calculated for analyzing the
29,2 overall performance of the real estate sector before and after the financial crisis. These
ratios have been grouped under the four categories of liquidity, solvency, profitability
and activity ratios in order to understand which financial aspect of business needs
more attention on the part of management to take corrective measures if necessary.
120
5.1 Liquidity ratios
Liquidity ratios are calculated in order to have an understanding of the liquidity position
of the company or, in other words, to find the ability to repay short-term debts. Creditors
and bankers are interested in this group of ratios as it helps them to know how fast their
debts will be repaid with the help of liquid assets (Kieso and Weygandt, 2010).
Considering the availability of data, four liquidity measures have been calculated, in
order to assess the liquidity position of the companies during the pre- and post-crisis
period. Table I reveals some descriptive statistics (mean, median, standard deviation
and inter quartile range) of the liquidity measures along with the statistical test
(Wilcoxon test) for a median difference between pre- and post-crisis period.
5.1.1 Current ratio. Current ratio (CR) is calculated by dividing current assets over
current liabilities. It measures the company’s liquidity and short-term debt paying
ability. It measures the extent to which a company’s short-term creditors are covered
by assets which can be converted into cash within the same short-term period (Downes
and Goodman, 2003). The CR varies from industry to industry; however the acceptable
norm is 2:1 (Khan and Jain, 2006 and Bragg, 2010).
Findings. Table I shows that the mean (median) CR calculated before the crisis was
2.926 (1.405) while it dropped to 1.324 (1.264) after the crisis. The value of the test
statistic is Z ¼ 2.51 with a p-value of 0.012. Thus, the H0 is rejected at the 5 percent
level of significance, which suggests that the financial crisis has a significant negative
impact on companies’ liquidity as measured by the CR. This can be due to the decrease
in cash balance, low sales, low inventory turnover or fall in receivables.
Future implications. A regular decline in CR can imply the need to raise debt
for meeting current obligations and a greater reliance on operating cash flow
(Robinson et al., 2008). As debt entails a cost along with it, they can become an extra
burden for the companies especially if they are in the recovery phase of the business.
some descriptive statistics for the profitability measures selected in this study and the
results of the nonparametric Wilcoxon test for the median difference pre and post
financial crisis.
5.2.1 Earnings per share. Earnings per share (EPS) is a profitability ratio which is
computed by dividing net income by the number of shares outstanding in the year. Sinha
(2009) suggested that since various user groups cannot access the company records, EPS
is used as a single index of business performance. It is also helpful in calculating the price
earnings ratio, a significant ratio which reveals the growth and demand for the
company’s stocks. Shareholders can thus find out the net income applicable to each
share of common stock they hold in the business. They can also analyze the EPS for a
given period of time in order to take investment decisions.
Findings. Table II shows that the mean (median) EPS before the crisis was 0.581
(0.462) and it fell to 0.346 (0.224) after the crisis. This drop, however, is marginally
significant at (at 10 percent level, p-value ¼ 0.071). This shows that the profit available
on each share held by shareholders decreased with the onset of the financial crisis and it
suggests a downward trend in the performance of the companies especially after the
crisis. This is mainly due to the decline in net profits after the crisis and there has been an
increase in the number of shares issued.
Future implications. A frequent decline in the EPS can push the stock price of
respective companies down and thus affect the credibility of the company. Singhvi and
Bodhanwala (2006) affirmed that EPS is a valid representation of the company’s
earnings and as the ratio is used as a screen for growing companies, a constant decline in
EPS can send signals to prospective investors to deviate their investments into other
industries. Current shareholders can opt for selling their current shares which will
further put a downward pressure on the stock price.
5.2.2 Return on equity. Return on equity (ROE) is another profitability ratio which is
calculated by dividing net income over shareholders’ equity. It shows how much profit
a company generates with the money shareholders have invested and at the same time
highlights the amount of earnings available to equity investors after debt service costs
have been factored into the equity invested in the asset (Damodaran, 2007). This is the
HUM most important ratio to investors as it helps them to see how effectively and efficiently
29,2 their investments are being utilized to generate profits.
Findings. Table II reveals that the mean (median) ROE was 0.238 (0.230) before the
crisis but dropped to 0.102 (0.083) after the crisis. The value of the test statistic
(Z ¼ 2.903) and its p-value (0.003) indicate that the H0 can be rejected at the 1 percent
level of significance. Thus, the financial crisis has a significant negative impact on the
124 companies’ profitability as measured by the ROE. This is mainly due to the steep decline
in net profits reported during the post-crisis. Dorsey (2003) noted that a company having
a ROE above 20 percent but below 40 percent offers a good option to invest in, while a
ratio below 10 percent signals danger.
Future implications. ROE is a tool used by prospective investors for finding
competitively advantageous companies. It also helps investors to decide companies that
are profit creators and those that are profit burners. A company with a falling ROE also
implies the end of the growth phase for the aforesaid company. The current decline in
ROE in the analyzed companies may signal the end of the growing phase in the real
estate and construction industry. This may prompt investors to gradually remove real
estate stocks from their portfolio. As Dorsey (2003) suggested, there are three methods of
improving the ROE, which are an increase in net profit margin (NPM), asset turnover
and leverage. It is therefore recommended to adopt all or some of these techniques in
order to improve the ROE for a profitable journey ahead.
5.2.3 Return on assets. Return on assets (ROA) is another profitability ratio which is
computed by dividing net income over total assets. It measures the overall profitability of
assets in terms of income earned on each dollar invested in assets. Droms and Wright
(2010) asserted that ROA can be considered as an overall performance measure because it
is a product of the firm’s profitability and operating efficiency. The ratio measures profit
against all of the assets a division uses to make those earnings. Hence, it is a way to
evaluate the division’s profitability and effectiveness (Kristy and Diamond, 1984). It is
assumed that the lower the profit per dollar of assets the more asset intensive the business
is. The sector studied here is capital intensive therefore we can expect a low ROA.
Findings. Table II reports that the mean (median) ROA was 0.166 (0.164) during the
pre-crisis, while it went down to 0.049 (0.044) after the crisis. For this ratio, the test
statistic is 3.095 and its p-value is 0.002. Therefore, the H0 is rejected at the 1 percent level
of significance, which clearly shows the adverse effects of the global financial crisis on
the ROA of real estate and construction companies in the UAE. A detailed analysis of the
total assets and net income in the pre- and post-crisis clearly reveals a substantial
increase in total assets during the post-crisis and a steep decrease in the net income. Since
ROA is a product of NPM and asset turnover, we can attribute the decline of ROA solely
due to the decline in NPM and asset turnover (see findings in Sections 5.2.4 and 5.4.1).
Future implications. A constant decline in the ROA is not a favorable situation for
any sector; however the decrease here is solely due to decline in profits due to the crisis.
On the contrary if the net income had improved and ROA further decreased, then we
could relate it to mismanagement of assets, which sends negative signals about the
managerial efficiency of the company. Stickney et al. (2009) suggest that firms having
substantial investment in fixed assets and operating in an optimum capacity can
increase ROA only by increasing profitability. Catering to this suggestion the companies
discussed in our paper can adopt strategies like creating brand loyalty, quality and
efficient maintenance services and flexible payment plans in order to increase ROA.
5.2.4 Net profit margin. The NPM is calculated by dividing net income over net UAE real estate
sales. It reveals how much profit is made out of each dollar it generates in revenue or and construction
sales after payment of all expenses. It can indicate whether the business is generating
enough sales volume to cover minimum fixed costs and still leave an acceptable profit.
Findings. Table II shows that the mean (median) NPM reported prior to the crisis was
1.224 (0.498) while it slipped to 0.331 (0.201) after the crisis. This drop is statistically
significant, the value of the test statistic is Z ¼ 3.059 and its p-value is 0.002. Thus, the 125
decline in the NPM has tended to reinforce the negative impact of the global financial
crisis on the profitability position of the real estate and constructions sector in the UAE.
This decline can be attributed to the increase in operating costs such as administration
and office expenses, and to the increase in dividend payments reported in the next
Section (5.2.5).
Future implications. A continuous decrease in the NPM can indicate danger to the
company as it clearly portrays the decline in its profitability of the company, insufficient
sales volume or mismanagement of operating expenses. This will affect the goodwill of
the sector and make investors cautious about further investments. Tiffany and Peterson
(2011) stated that lower margins are only acceptable if they lead to greater sales, larger
market share and higher profits. The study conducted here does prove an increase in
sales but low profits and lower marker share. Therefore, the decrease in profit margin
should be given due consideration.
5.2.5 Dividend payout ratio. The dividend payout ratio (DPR) is measured by
dividing cash dividends declared on common stocks by net income. Companies that
experience a high growth rate usually have low payouts as they tend to plough back
their profits. The situation is vice versa for low growth companies. A reduction in
payment of dividends may not be welcomed by a certain group of investors and there
may be a tendency to switch to other dividend-paying stocks (Al-Malkawi et al., 2010).
As a result, stock prices for the respective companies may also start deteriorating.
A stable dividend policy indicates consistency in management decisions, while a
100 percent payout policy indicates lack of provision for growth strategies and an
unsustainable trend (Bragg, 2010).
Findings. Table II reveals that the mean (median) DPR was 0.105 (0.066) before the
crisis while it climbed to 0.493 (0.246) after the crisis. This means that an average of
10 percent of the net profits was distributed as dividends before the crisis, while this
climbed to 49 percent after the crisis. As can be seen from Table II, the test statistic is
22.087 with a p-value of 0.037. Accordingly, the H0 is rejected at the 5 percent level of
significance. This increase in dividend distribution is undoubtedly a survival strategy
adopted by the sector to overcome the dilemma of investors regarding the real estate and
construction industry. This result also provides an answer to the reasons for decrease in
CSHR reported in our findings in Section 5.1.3. Since dividends are paid in cash, an increase
in dividend payouts can have negative implications on the liquidity of the company.
Future implications. A constant increase in DPR is well received by stock holders but
this can also lead to insufficient funds remaining for expansion and future growth
opportunities. Dividends contain information about the cash flows of a company and
dividend announcements can be regarded as a determinant to increase share price
(Al-Malkawi et al., 2010). Therefore, it is apt for companies to maintain a stable dividend
policy in order to highlight the consistency in management decisions and policies.
Epstein (2008) has made an interesting remark on a constant increase in dividend
HUM payouts irrespective of a fall in profits. The researcher warns that if the trend continues
29,2 the investors must recognize the hidden message of a future failure of the company.
To sum up, an overall analysis of the profitability ratios reveals a steep decline in ROA,
ROE, NPM and EPS after the onset of financial crisis. However, the DPR has shown a
significant increase as part of survival strategy. The Wilcoxon test conducted has further
justified these differences as statistically significant. Experts caution that investors and
126 creditors become reluctant to associate themselves with companies exhibiting declining
profitability ratios. The decline in the profitability ratios clearly indicates the negative
impact of the financial crisis on the real estate and construction companies in the UAE. It
is therefore recommended to take advantage of the decrease in raw material prices after
the crisis; maintain the trust and confidence of employees so that it does not affect their
productivity; minimize operating expenses; and maintain a stable dividend policy. This
will retain stockholders because profitable companies are well received by investors,
obtain finance easily and are less prone to government intervention (Barthwal, 2007).
Apart from profitability ratios another important component of assessing a firm’s
performance are the leverage ratios which will be discussed in the next section.
It is worthwhile to note that the UAE Government has already adopted measures to
counter issues in the real estate market. The Federal Government’s decision to increase
visa validity from six months to three years for prospective property investors will have
a long-term effect on the market. Nabil Ahmed, real estate research analyst for Deutsche
Bank, commented that the regional unrest in neighbouring countries also pose the UAE
as a safe haven for investors (Clancy, 2011). Gulf Finance has proposed an option for
clients facing difficulties in repayment of debt. They are now provided with flexible
repayment schedules without facing criminal prosecution under Dubai’s strict debt
laws, which have in the past encouraged defaulters to flee the Emirate.
The empirical results obtained in the research clearly indicate the influence of
business cycles as the main determinant of the decline in performance of these
companies. It is hoped that the implementation of more stringent regulatory policies,
changes in business cycles, unexploited markets like Ras Al-Khaimah, Fujairah and
Umm Al Quwain and a friendly business environment will uplift the UAE real estate and
construction companies from the present turmoil and ease them into a stage of stability
and prosperity.
Notes
1. Dubai World is a global holding company which focuses on the strategic growth areas of
Transport & Logistics; Drydocks & Maritime; Urban Development; and Investment
& Financial Services. Its portfolio contains some of the world’s leading companies in their
industries, including Drydocks World, Economic Zones World, Istithmar World, Nakheel
and majority ownership of DP World.
HUM 2. Report available at: http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/real-estate-stocks-pull-down-
uae-market-1.72774 and http://gulfnews.com/business/markets/uae-markets-fall-led-by-real-
29,2 estate-construction-1.58028
3. The six companies included in this study are ALDAR Properties P.J.S.C., Emaar Properties
P.J.S.C, Union Properties P.J.S.C, Deyaar Development P.J.S.C, RAK Properties and
SOROUH.
132 4. Chan et al. (1990) stated that highly levered real estate companies are more prone to macro
economic shocks, which urges the need to control for debt while analyzing the relationship
between real estate returns and macro economic factors.
5. Report available at: http://m.ibtimes.com/political-turmoil-in-gulf-and-middle-east-could-
benefit-uae-property-markets-137237.html (accessed 15 November).
6. Inventory turnover ratio has not been considered here due to inadequate information
regarding the same.
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Further reading
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Building Materials and Construction, Dubai.
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15 November).
Saleem, N. (2009), “Real estate stocks pull down UAE market”, available at: http://gulfnews.
com/business/markets/real-estate-stocks-pull-down-uae-market-1.72774 (accessed
15 November).
About the authors UAE real estate
Husam-Aldin N. Al-Malkawi is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Faculty of Economics
and Administration, King Abdulaziz University, Saudi Arabia. He received his PhD from the and construction
University of Western Sydney, Australia and has taught in various countries including
Australia, Jordan, UAE and Saudi Arabia. He serves as a referee and a member of the editorial
board for several international journals. His research interests include corporate financial policy,
financial economics, e-commerce and applied econometrics. Husam-Aldin N. Al-Malkawi is the
corresponding author and can be contacted at: h.almalkawi@gmail.com 135
Rekha Pillai is an Assistant Instructor at the Business Administration Department of
ALHOSN University. She has a Master of Commerce and M.Phil degrees and currently is a PhD
candidate at Asia e university, India. She has several publications in international journals.