TABLA FORECAST

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

Period Forecast Limit Limit
2021.0 9288.0 9256.75 9319.25
2022.0 9362.0 9292.11 9431.89
2023.0 9436.0 9319.05 9552.95
2024.0 9510.0 9338.81 9681.19

This table shows the forecasted values for Zona Rural. During the period where actual data is available, it also displays
the predicted values from the fitted model and the residuals (data-forecast). For time periods beyond the end of the series,
it shows 95.0% prediction limits for the forecasts. These limits show where the true data value at a selected future time is
likely to be with 95.0% confidence, assuming the fitted model is appropriate for the data. You can plot the forecasts by
selecting Forecast Plot from the list of graphical options. You can change the confidence level while viewing the plot if
you press the alternate mouse button and select Pane Options. To test whether the model fits the data adequately, select
Model Comparisons from the list of Tabular Options.

URBANA
Period Forecast Limit Limit
2021.0 65946.6 65908.3 65984.8
2022.0 66694.8 66609.4 66780.1
2023.0 67438.6 67296.1 67581.1
2024.0 68178.1 67970.0 68386.2

Models
(A) Random walk
(B) Random walk with drift = 824.333
(C) Constant mean = 59133.2
(D) Linear trend = 52093.9 + 828.149 t
(E) Quadratic trend = 51926.0 + 884.122 t + -3.29254 t^2
(F) Exponential trend = exp(10.866 + 0.0140528 t)
(G) Simple moving average of 2 terms
(H) Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.9999
(I) Brown's linear exp. smoothing with alpha = 0.9999
(J) Holt's linear exp. smoothing with alpha = 0.9999 and beta = 0.1052
(K) ARIMA(1,1,0)
(L) ARIMA(0,2,0)
(M) ARIMA(2,1,0)
(N) ARIMA(2,2,0)
(O) ARIMA(1,2,0)

Estimation Period
Model RMSE MAE MAPE ME MPE AIC HQC SBIC
(A) 825.034 824.333 1.39217 824.333 1.39217 13.4308 13.4308 13.4308
(B) 35.1845 28.8 0.0479685 -2.42532E-12 0.00297073 7.24621 7.24869 7.2945
(C) 3943.37 3321.69 5.65892 0.0 -0.421204 16.6846 16.6871 16.7329
(D) 70.8141 53.6406 0.0896274 -2.72848E-12 -0.000506807 8.77012 8.77506 8.86669
(E) 25.2405 19.2382 0.0324075 -4.54747E-13 6.8319 6.83932 6.97676
(F) 186.462 148.389 0.25002 -0.0666921 -0.00042563 10.7065 10.7114 10.803
(G) 1283.5 1235.93 2.07098 1235.93 2.07098 14.4397 14.4422 14.488
(H) 825.111 772.89 1.30529 772.88 1.30527 13.556 13.5585 13.6043
(I) 316.774 121.812 0.22597 101.458 0.192162 11.6414 11.6439 11.6897
(J) 34.366 25.5343 0.0422931 -6.04943 -0.00740796 7.32414 7.32908 7.42071
(K) 17.6336 12.5795 0.0213465 -2.07681 -0.0030509 5.86461 5.86709 5.9129
(L) 18.8699 15.5 0.0259611 -7.78571 -0.0127195 5.87513 5.87513 5.87513
(M) 17.4824 12.8267 0.0215849 -3.49268 -0.00529823 5.97239 5.97733 6.06896
(N) 17.4873 11.8995 0.0199057 -5.52144 -0.0090154 5.97295 5.9779 6.06953
(O) 19.0154 15.7198 0.0261226 -9.42504 -0.0153725 6.01549 6.01797 6.06378

(1) the root mean squared error (RMSE)

(2) the mean absolute error (MAE)
(3) the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
(4) the mean error (ME)
(5) the mean percentage error (MPE)