GLOBAL WARMING, ITS IMPACT ON FEDERAL

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF NEPAL AND

MITIGATION MEASURES
 CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the Study

Global warming means a scientific phenomenon of rising of temperature of earth.

This rise of temperature is catalyzed with the increase of carbon emission in the
environment. It is why world has witnessed an identical change in the global climate
in the last quarter of the twentieth century. Human activities are the main causes for
this change. Climate change specially characterized with global warming is the
greatest challenge of the 21st century to the mankind. It has already shown adverse
effects on the various aspects of the life and the world is scary about its consequences
such as deteriorating eco-system, worse draughts, and alteration in agriculture system,
contamination in soil and water bodies, loss of biodiversity and many others, which
we have to accept in upcoming future. In general, the degree of global warming and
its future projection has threatened the very existence of human life.

Though, the effect of the global warming is global, the immediate effect to the
developing countries is daunting. Number of reports on the scientific findings
regarding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor region,
especially the developing countries appear at the greatest risk from the projected
effects of global warming, while their emissions have been small as compared to the
developed world. The impending threats have been duly identified and attention
initiated on a global scale on the table at least for now. Since the treaty provisions
were denied by some western world including the US, the challenges of global
warming remain and continue to threaten the very existence of the life. Today,
climate change has evolved as a socio-political issue, a marked departure from
environmental and scientific concerns.

2
Global warming is the current increase in temperature of the Earth's surface (both
land and water) as well as it's atmosphere. Average temperatures around the world
have risen by 0.75°C over the last 100 years about two thirds of this increase has
occurred since 1975. In the past, when the Earth experienced increases in temperature
it was the result of natural causes but today it is being caused by the increase of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere produced by human activities.

The natural greenhouse effect maintains the Earth's temperature at a safe level
making it possible for humans and many other life . However, since the Industrial
Revolution human activities have drastically enhanced the greenhouse effect causing
the Earth's average temperature to rise by almost 1°C. This is creating the global
warming we see today. To put this increase in perspective it is important to
understand that during the last ice age, a period of massive climate change, the
average temperature change around the globe was only about 5°C.

Global warming has already threatened the human existence in some regions of the
world. Projected submergence of the Maldives by 2025 is one burning example.
South Asia is the most vulnerable region to global warming due to its geographical
location and under-development, while Nepal remains at the forefront. At this
moment, it is imperative that the causes, effects and challenges of global warming are
assessed and effective measures are taken before any disaster.

1.2 Statement of the Problem

The global warming is real, so are its impacts; thus is threatening human existence
and the eco-system at large. Lack of commitment from all has made the issue more
complex - putting existence of mankind at stake. The major factor for global warming
is human being however non-human factor i.e. natural process also contributes for
global warming which is yet to be researched in detail. Here human factor is given
more emphasis since human factor has disturbed the ecological balance. Many
developed and developing countries are the major carbon emitters thus the main

3
reason for global warming. There is multitude of problems rising from global
warming ranging in the various domain of national security.

The researcher has however made an attempt to analyze and surf answers to the
following research problems:-

1.2.1 What is global warming?

1.2.2 What are the effects of global warming on national security of Nepal?

1.2.3 What are the mitigation measures of global warming?

1

1.3 Objectives of the Study

Basically, the objective of this study is to analyze causes of global warming and the
question of human existence due to its impacts and consequences. The paper will also
aim to achieve the following specific objectives:-

1.3.1 To highlight the causes and consequences of global warming.

1.3.2 To diagnose the effects of global warming on national security of Nepal.

1.3.3 To identify mitigation measures of global warming in Nepal.

4
1.4 Significance of the Study

This research will add a new insight in understanding the issues related to global
warming on the Nepalese prospectus in general. It will determine the effect of global
warming in national security. This research will make an endeavor to identify
measures to mitigate the affect of global warming on national security and
recommend the means to control global warming. Hence, this research will be useful
and purposeful to all students, scholars and environmental activists. Moreover, this
research can be helpful to political leaders, policy makers and academia by providing
general idea on global warming, acquaint with the likely threat to national security.

1.5 Limitations of the Study

As a piece of academic research, the present study limits itself within some
boundaries. Data collection will primarily be based on the published secondary
sources. It will be difficult to conduct field visits and collect primary data
representing global warming in any specific areas however survey and structured
interview has been conducted among the students and subject matter experts from
Kathmandu only.

Research topic is a highly demanding topic and there are so many literature published
to address such a pressing issue, however researcher have reviewed some literature,
mainly related to Nepalese context.

1.6 Organization of the Study

For better understanding of the study, the paper has been organized into five chapters
as follows.

1.6.1 Chapter I Introduction.

5
1.6.2 Chapter II Review of the Literature

1.6.3 Chapter III Causes and consequences of Global Warming

1.6.4 Chapter IV Effect of Global Warming on national security of Nepal

1.6.5 Chapter V Mitigation measures of Global Warning in Nepal

1.6.6 Chapter VI Findings, Summary and Conclusion

1.7 Research Methodology

Deliberate research based on both quantitative and qualitative method has

been conducted. Details are justified below.

1.8 Justification for the Selection of Research Topic

Global warming is one of the pressing issues of this century. Along with the
technological advancement and human endeavor to use fossil fuel for developmental
purpose, carbon emission into the environment had been increased. This increase of
carbon in the atmosphere have created greenhouse effect causing global warming.
This topic of global warming is directly related to the existence of human being and
other living creatures so research topic has got global concern. Thus, the researcher
was interested to look into the depth of this highly talked topic and identify its impact
on Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal along with the recommendations to
mitigate the effect of global warming.

1.9 Approach of the study

Primarily, both quantitative and qualitative inquiry approach was adopted to perform
the research. To collect quantitative data survey was done and to get qualitative data
interview was performed. Basically the survey was done with the students of
environment science, MBBS, geology, economics, political science and strategic
studies from different academic institutions in Kathmandu. Some secondary sources
of data were also used for the research. Books, articles and websites were referred as
a secondary source for the study. All those data are analyzed to interpret the likely
effect of Global warming on national security of Nepal. For this, the research has
been carried out using descriptive cum analytical research methods.

6
1.9.1 Study area

To perform this research, Kathmandu the capital city of Nepal has been chosen as a
study area. Being a capital of the country, many resources personnel are easily
available. Also the gathering of people from almost every corner of Nepal happens
here than any other area of Nepal. Hence, for this research academic institution of
Kathmandu valley was the primary study area. The subject matter experts on global
warming will be selected and structured interview will be carried out with the
resource personnel.

1.9.2 Universe & Sample

Since the study is targeted to identify the likely effect of global warming, students
from the different college studying at minimum of bachelor level are surveyed with
the survey questionnaire to know their view on the effect of global warming. The
variety of sample will provide an opportunity to understand view of students enrolled
in different faculty at Bachelor level on this pressing issue.

1.9.3 Nature of Data

Data for the research was collected both from primary and secondary sources. For the
primary data a survey question and interview question were prepared. Survey
questions were distributed in the sample area for the required sample size. In the
similar way interview question, for qualitative primary data was prepared and based
on those questions interviews were conducted with the required sample personnel as
described above.

7
1.9.4 Methods of Data Collection

For the collection of data following methods have been adopted for this research:

1.9.4.1 Survey

To conduct the survey, four questions were prepared to know the understanding and
view of students reading different faculty at Bachelor level among different colleges
in Kathmandu. Forty students from each faculty will be surveyed with survey
questionnaires as shown in appendix A.

1.8.4.2 Interview

Structured interviews with some subject matter experts will be conducted based on
the questionnaire as shown in appendix B and the scholars to be interviewed will be
shown in appendix C.

1.9 Data Collection Tools

Surveys questionnaires form (shown in appendix A) and structured interview

questionnaires (shown in appendix B) were the primary tools for the data collection.
Respondent were from Bachelor students of various faculty (environment science,
MBBS, geology, economics, political science and strategic studies) who are believed
to be among the aware citizen of Nepal.

8
 CHAPTER II

REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE

Lately, extensive studies have been done on the global warming and its consequences.
Different literatures and websites on this have been reviewed for the study putting
research problem in context. In the subsequent paragraphs, the critical summary of
some literatures is done to identify the gaps.

In the book “The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of
Civilizations”, Brian Fagan believes climate is not merely a backdrop to the ongoing
drama of human civilization, but an important stage upon which world events turn.
He also writes “Even without greenhouse gases, the effects of prolonged droughts
would be far more catastrophic today than they were even a century ago.”
Highlighting the severe consequences of global warming, he has further said that
global warming will induce mass migration of different species of animals from one
place to another, including that of the human. Thus, such migration will be
responsible for the extinction of some species and clashes of civilization will take
place resulting the rise and fall of civilizations.

The book “Climate Change and Global Warming: An Introduction” by Anup Shah
also believes that the global warming is result of natural events and human activities.
If the present trend of global warming keeps on going then, it will potentially threaten
the survival of the mankind.

The popular book “A Contract With the Earth” authored by Newt Gingrich and
Terry L. Maple presents stories, ideas, and events that illustrate how threatening the
global warming is and how people worldwide are coping with environmental
problems.

9
The book “Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction” of Mark Maslin’s
theoretically analyze the impacts of global warming in the upcoming years and the
surprise that could be in store for us in the near future. He is questioning in the end of
his book by discussing the politics of global warming and looks out what we can do
now to adapt to climate change and mitigate its worst effects.

IPCC (2007).The regional impacts of climate change: An assessment of vulnerability.

Special report of IPCC working group II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
This report has highlighted that the temperature of the world has been increased by
0.6 in the twentieth century has been greater than in any other century during the past
1000 years. This report has indicated that Himalaya region are very sensitive to
climate changes due to its geographical pattern. Widespread retreat of the world’s
glaciers and Changes in the snowfall pattern was observed during the 20th century.
This report has mentioned Snow covered area of the Himalaya has been decreased
and if the same warming ratio and snow melting ratio remain the trends, 80% of
Himalayan glaciers will be gone in 30 years and two billion people may be affected
by the glacier retreats in the Himalayas.

Sharma, K.P. (2010). Climate change trend and its impact in Nepal. Kathmandu:
Jalashrot Vikas Sanstha. The writer has alarmed the stakeholders that Nepal’s
averaged mean temperature increases of 1.2°C and 3°C projected by 2050 and 2100.
Nepal is facing multiple disaster incidents due to climate change. More impact on
glacier dynamics has been observed in Himalaya due to rise of temperature an
average 0.12 °C /yr during 1975 to 2005.with the increase of the warming rate in
Himalayas the socio economic status has been badly affected due the decreasing
trend of agriculture production as well as decreasing trend of tourism activities.

Gautam, M.R., Timilsina. R. & Acharya, K. (2012). Climate Change in the

Himalayas: Current State of Knowledge. Kathmandu: Policy Research Working
Paper. The study has broadly covered biophysical impacts of climate change on the
Himalayas including possibility of natural hazards and point out that Himalaya
regions are more Vulnerable due to increased temperature trend in altitude over small
distances. High dependence on natural resources and lack of resources to cope with
the changing climate have severely affected the well being of the mountain people.

10
ICIMOD, (2007). Impacts of Climate Change on Himalayan Glaciers and Glacial
Lakes. Kathmandu: International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.
International Center for Integrated Mountain Development This report has concluded
that The impact of global warming is already being felt by the most vulnerable-the
world's poorest people and countries and its impact is severe on Nepal because of the
geographical and climatic conditions. The writer has also highlighted the glacier
retreat in mountain and its consequences in mountain of Nepal. Many small glacier
lake have been merged and formed new lake which are potential for Glacier lake
outburst flood(GLOF).

Nepal, S.K. (2011). Tourism and the environment-Perspectives from the Nepalese
Himalaya. Kathmandu: Himal Books. This paper provides an overview of climate
change impacts in tourism destinations in the Nepalese Himalaya. Avalanches and
glacial lake outburst floods landslides, debris flows and flash floods, vector born
diseases, environment degradation and other climatic extreme event are the major
hazards which are threatening tourism industry in Nepal especially in mountain. The
writer has also emphasized Adaptation strategies for tourism stakeholders and local
communities and also suggested to adopt the alternative occupation for livelihood.

Gupta, S. P. (2010). Climate Change and its Impact on Forest Resource Base at
Global and Local Level. Unpublished master degree thesis submitted to Kathmandu
University, Nepal. The writer has mentioned that Himalayan forests are expected to be
among those most vulnerable to climate change because temperatures are expected to
increase more in the arctic/alpine zones, bringing more changes in precipitation.
However, even the increased precipitation is unlikely to provide sufficient moisture
because of increased evaporation due to rising summer temperatures - leading to
decreased soil moisture. This will cause more drought-resistant trees or grasslands to
replace existing forest ecosystems. During the past two decades, summer temperatures
have frequently exceeded the critical threshold of the most valuable timber species of the
himalayan forest. Over coming decades, scientists predict continued hot summer
temperatures that will force these species into sharp decline, even pushing them to
extinction.

NASA, (2013). Global climate change vital sign of plant, an article published by NASA
which described mainly about global warming and climate change. The author has amply

11
covered about the causes of global warming and even recommended ways to mitigate and
create adaptation on the climate change. Author mentioned that climate change is a
natural and slow process.

Chaudhary & Aryal, 2009. Global warming in Nepal: Challenges & Policy Imperatives
published on Feb 2008 vol 8 has amply explained on global warming on the global
context and in the later part authors have related it to the Nepalese context. Case studies
mentioning about the impact GLOF on different dates in Nepal has also been mentioned
in the journal. The author has mentioned about the three prong approach to mitigate the
threat created by global warming. Writers have opined about the requirement of
mitigation, adaptation and policy matters to address the threat created by global warming.

All of the literatures reviewed during the research in one way or the other expressed
that global warming and climate change has been a very critical issue in Nepalese
context. Due to the poor infrastructure and lack of strong economy impact of global
warming will be very critical to Nepal. However the literatures so reviewed have not
been able to explain global warming in relation to national security. Researcher have
made an attempt to look into the matter in relation to the national security of Federal
Republic of Nepal.

12
 CHAPTER III

CAUSES & CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING

3.1 General Background

Nepal has experienced an average maximum annual temperature increase of 0.060 C.

This rate of increase is higher in the mountains than in other regions. Despite having
only 0.4 percent of the total global population and being responsible for only 0.025
percent of total GHG emissions in the world, Nepal will be affected
disproportionately, especially from increasing atmospheric temperature. Changes in
the annual rainfall cycle, intense rainfall and longer droughts have been observed.
Similarly, both days and nights are presently warmer. The number of days with 100
mm of heavy rainfall is increasing (Chaudhary & Aryal, 2009). The timing and
duration of rainfall is changing. As glaciers recede from rapid snow and ice melting,
glacier lakes are expanding. The adverse impacts of climate change have been noticed
in agriculture and food security, water resources, forests and biodiversity, health,
tourism and infrastructures. Climate-induced disasters and other effects have caused
damages and losses to life, property, and livelihoods. Millions of Nepalese are
estimated to be at risk to climate change. In the past 90 years, a glacier in the
Sagarmatha region has receded 330 feet vertically. Because of glacier melting, new
glacier lakes have formed. Although there will be an increase in river flows untill
2030, this is projected to decrease significantly by the end of this century. The
problems arising due to climate change are increasing over the years. Nepal has to
implement adaptation programmes even if it is not being responsible for climate
change. Hence, Nepal has considered climate adaptation as a national agenda and has
taken several initiatives for implementing different programmes for risk reduction in
the recent years.

Days and nights are both becoming warmers, warm spell duration is increasing and
cool days and cool nights are becoming less frequent (Baidya, 2008). According to
the study conducted by Department of Hydrology and Metrology, Nepal is facing an
annual temperature increase rate at an average of 0.06 degrees Celsius.The Nepalese
Himalaya saw a warming trend varying between 0.4 and 0.9 °C/decade in the mean

13
annual maximum temperature across different ecological belts of Nepal, with the high
Trans-Himalayan region showing the highest and the Terai showing the lowest
(Shrestha, 1999). Several studies involving field based observations, satellite
imagery, and repeat photography have shown that a majority of Himalayan glaciers
are retreating. According to the studies carried out by International Center for
Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and United Nations Environment
Program (UNEP), there are 26 potential dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal that threaten
millions of lives due to global warming. In Nepal, overall glacier area and ice reserve
have declined by 21% and 28%, respectively, between 2001 and 2010 (Bajracharya ,
2011). One impact of increasing temperature over the last centuries in many
mountainous environments is retreat of glaciers and formation of moraine-dammed
glacial lakes. One of the example is from 1960-2000, 245 small (<50x50 m2) lakes
disappeared from Nepal’s Dudh Koshi Basin, while 24 new lakes were formed
(Bajracharya , 2011). So Nepal's mountains that are also called the water tower of
Asia are under threat as a result of impact of global warming (Basnet, 2014). Current
state of earth is because of the global warming which can be illustrated with the
global warming in different periods of time. This different studies suggests that global
warming is real and its happening rapidly. The major causes of global warming can
be clubbed and described in the following paragraph.

3.2 Major causes of Global warming

Global warming is generally by the process of trapping of the solar energy within
earth’s atmosphere. It is in normal condition reflected back to the space after it
touches earth’s surface. With the increase in carbon dioxide in earth’s atmosphere this
is reflected back to earth which in turn increases earth’s temperature called global
warming. This effect is called green house effect (GHE). Green house gases are
emitted to the atmosphere both by natural and artificial means. Based on the data
collected during research my respondents have gave their view on cause of global
warming as shown on the following graph which states that 44.58 % of the students
believes that the major cause of global warming is natural and 55.41% opine that it is
human induced.

14
 Cause of global warming

45% Natural cause

Human induced
55%

Figure 1. Figure showing the main cause of global warming prepared by

researcher based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in 2018

S.No Natural cause Human induced

1 107 133

Table 1. Figure showing the main cause of global warming prepared by

researcher based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in 2018.

Looking at the result of survey done with 240 respondents studying different faculty
at teaching institutions of Kathmandu, it is seen that 44.58 % of the students believes
that the major cause of global warming is natural and 55.41% opine that it is human
induced. To justify the report of survey researcher has made the study to find out the
cause of global warming under two broad headings as follows

3.2.1 Natural Causes of Global warming

Natural phenomenon contributes for global warming. These causes are volcanic
eruptions, ocean current, the earth’s orbital changes and solar variations.

15
3.2.1.1 Gases from Volcanic eruption. Volcanic eruption release huge amount
of carbon gases in the environment which in the long run acts as the greenhouse gases
and contribute for global warming (www.bionomicfuel.com).

3.2.1.2 Water current on Ocean. The oceans are a major component of the
climate system. Ocean currents move vast amounts of heat across the planet. Winds
push horizontally against the sea surface and drive ocean current patterns. The oceans
play an important role in determining the atmospheric concentration of CO2. Changes
in ocean circulation may affect the climate through the movement of CO2 into or out
of the atmosphere (www.climatechangechallenge.org).

3.2.1.3 Rotation of Earth. For more than a century scientists have known that
Earth’s ice ages are caused by the wobbling of the planet’s orbit, which changes its
orientation to the sun and affects the amount of sunlight reaching higher latitudes,
particularly the polar regions. The Northern Hemisphere’s last ice age ended about
20,000 years ago, and most evidence has indicated that the ice age in the Southern
Hemisphere ended about 2,000 years later, suggesting that the south was responding
to warming in the north (Stricherz,2014). This study states that earth’s rotation along
its axis is also contributing for global warming. As the planet spins, the rotation is off
slightly and this causes a wobble in the spin. As a result certain areas may get more or
less radiation from the sun, and affect the temperature. This cycle has gone on for
millions of years (www.bionomicfuel.com). This process is a very slow process and
its share on global warming is very low as compared to that with natural process of
global warming.

3.2.1.4 Solar variations. During cycles of increased sun spots and solar flares, the
temperature of the earth does warm up some but this is usually temporary, and when
the solar cycle cools off so does the earth (www.bionomicfuel.com).

3.2.1.5 Water Vapor & Atmospheric Humidity. Water vapor is the most
significant greenhouse gas. Atmospheric humidity is associated with water vapor, and
charts showing atmospheric humidity and temperature are nearly identical.
Additionally, water vapor absorbs the majority of rays across the infrared spectrum
while carbon dioxide only absorbs three narrow bands that overlap with those being
absorbed by water vapor (www.ehow.com).

16
3.2.2 Human Causes of Climate Change

The primary reason of climate change is the manmade causes. Manmade causes
probably do the most damage. There are many manmade causes.

3.2.2.1 Agriculture. Agriculture has been shown to produce significant effects on

climate change, primarily through the production and release of greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Another contributing cause of
climate change is when agriculture alters the Earth's land cover, which can change its
ability to absorb or reflect heat and light. Land use change such as deforestation and
desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are the major anthropogenic sources
of carbon dioxide (www.climatechangechallenge.org). The high rate of application of
nitrogen-rich fertilizers for increasing agricultural products creates ‘dead-zones’ in
our oceans and enhances greenhouse gases (planetsave.com).

3.2.2.2 Deforestation. Rainforests every year help to absorb almost 20% of

manmade CO2 emissions therefore deforestation can be classed as a major
contributor to the causes of climate change. Cutting down rainforests faster than they
can be replaced has a devastating effect on the carbon emission cycle producing an
extra 17% of greenhouse gases. (www.climatechangechallenge.org).

3.2.2.3 Increase on the use of fossil fuel. With the introduction of industrial era,
ratio of burning fossil fuel is increasing. Increase dependency on power created with
burning of fossil fuel like coal, oil and gas to create power for automobiles, domestic
use and industrial use has increased emission of carbon related gases responsible for
production of green house gases. Study conducted by WWF Australia in 2016 shows
that Australians are big producers of CO2 pollution compared to the rest of the world.
CO2pollution per person is nearly double the average of other developed nations and
more than four times the worldwide population. Electricity generation is the main
cause of carbon pollution in Australia because 73% of electricity comes from burning
coal and 13% from burning gas Only 14% of the energy is generated from renewable
energy sources like hydro, solar and wind, which do not emit carbon pollution in the
atmosphere (WWF Aus, 2016). During survey also respondents has also given their
combined opinion on the cause of the global warming. Respondents have mentioned
that carbon related gases are the main causes of global warming. 5% of respondents

17
assesses carbon monoxide to be the source of global warming, 8.33% opined Methane
(CH4) is cause of global warming, 32.08% of respondents have the opinion that
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main cause of global warming whereas the major chunk
of respondents i.e. 54.58% claim that current global warming is induced because of
all gases of carbon family as depicted below.

40
35
35
30 30
30
25
25
20 20
20
15
15
10
10 6 6 7 7
5 5
5 3 2 3 3 2 3 2 1
0

CO2
CO
CH4
All

Figure 2. Figure showing opinion of respondents on the gases responsible for

global warming based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in
2018.

Gases Environmental MBBS Geology Economics Political Strategic

science Science Studies

Carbon- 5 25 5 20 15 7
dioxide
(CO2)

Carbon- - 3 2 3 2 2
monoxide
(CO)

Methane - 6 3 7 3 1
(CH4)

All 35 6 30 10 20 30

18
Table 2. Table showing opinion of respondents on the gases responsible for
global warming based on survey conducted among 240 respondents in Kathmandu in
2018

Looking at the result of survey done with 240 respondents studying different faculty
at teaching institutions of Kathmandu, it is seen that majority of samples i.e. 54.58%
of students opine that gases related to carbon family are responsible for global
warming. Whereas the shared opinion on global warming was also seen which
indicates 32.08% for CO2, 8.33% for CH4 and 5% for CO have the understanding on
the respective gases are responsible for global warming. With the idea given from the
students who are pursuing for Bachelors degree it can be concluded that gases from
carbon family are responsible for global warming.

3.2.2.4 Mining. Mining is a contributor to the global warming. It is a diesel

dominated industry. Large scale mining is a source of emissions specifically through
the use of vehicles during the project operation, large construction equipment,
generators, blasting activities, possible releases of methane and hydrogen sulfides,
and creation of fugitive dusts. Current mining practices also involve significant
deforestation. This is a cause for concern considering that forests are a carbon sink
which help slow the process of climate change (Center for environment
Concerns,2014). Furthermore, not only does mining contribute to climate change,
it also aggravates and makes climate change more keenly felt in affected areas. With
a lifetime of 72 years, methane can cause some serious damage to the atmosphere
(NaikLast, 2011).

19
 CHAPTER IV

EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON NATIONAL

SECURITY OF NEPAL

There is a worldwide consensus that global warming is a real, rapidly advancing and
widespread threat facing humanity this century. Scientists have presented evidence
and tested models to substantiate this truly alarming fact (Permesan 1996, Pounds et
al. 1999, IPCC 2001, Woodward 2002, Klanderud and Birks 2003, Hall and Fagre
2003). The evidence confirms that man‐made factors such as deforestation,
agriculture, industries, automobiles, and the burning of fossil fuels, are contributing to
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission, a major cause of global warming (IPCC 2001).
The warming has manifold impacts on ecosystems and biological behaviours. Some
widely discussed impacts include snow melting and glacier retreat, drought and
desertification, flooding, frequent fire, sea level rise, species shifts, and heightened
diseases incidence. These ecological and biological responses can consequently lead
to serious consequences for human wellbeing (Easterling et al. 2000, Mehl and Karl
2000).

4.1 Nepal: Land of climate diversity

Despite its relatively small area, Nepal has very diverse climatic conditions, ranging
from tropical in the south to alpine in the north. The country's three distinct
geographies-the snow covered mountains, the mid hills and the tarai (plains)-
embodies this diversity. Its hydrology is fed largely by the South Asian monsoon
system (SAM), but the relationship between the timing, volume of monsoon rainfall
and the mountain landscape is poorly understood. The dramatic variation in altitude
over a short distance has resulted in pronounced orographic effects, effects which
severely limit our ability to explain precipitation dynamics in Nepal. Another
complication is that the data set required to explain the processes is limited.
Monitoring stations are few-just 280 across the entire country-and hydro-
meteorological data has been collected only since the late 1960s. With such a dearth
of information, it is impossible to adequately capture the temporal and spatial

20
dynamics of precipitation. As a result, modeling exercises face fundamental
limitations.

The diversity in Nepal's climate is matched by the diversity of its multiple ecosystems
and flora and fauna species. The mountain, hill and plains landscapes also support a
highly diverse array of cultures and livelihoods. Each of these many socio-economic
systems is custom-tailored to take advantage of the opportunities offered by specific
micro-climates and localised ecosystems and to respond to the constraints they
impose on livelihoods. The livelihoods of over three-quarters of all Nepalis are based
on agriculture and forest resources, and almost 65 percent of agriculture is rain-fed
(MoPE, 2000). Yet only 21 % of Nepal's area is cultivable and the irrigable
agriculture depends on the types of local surface sources, most likely to be affected
by erratic rainfall. It is clear, then, that climate change has major implications for
Nepal's ability to produce food for its population.

4.2 General Environmental Impacts

The environmental scientists have projected that the polar regions of the Northern
Hemisphere will heat up more than other areas of the planet, and glaciers and sea ice
will shrink as a result. Regions that now experience light winter snows may receive
no snow at all. In temperate mountains, snowlines will be higher and snow packs will
melt earlier. Winter and night-time temperatures will tend to rise more than summer
and daytime temperatures. Many of these trends are already beginning to be observed.
For example, Arctic temperatures have increased almost twice as much as the global
average over the past 100 years.

Weather patterns are expected to be less predictable and more extreme. Storm tracks
are projected to move toward the poles, shifting wind, rainfall, and temperature
patterns. Heat waves will continue to become more frequent and intense, a trend
already observed. Hurricanes, violent storms that draw their force from warm ocean
water, are likely to become more severe. The intensity of hurricanes has already
increased since the 1970s. More serious is all these effects on the temperature will
have adverse impact on the survival of the existing living beings.

21
The picture of Nepal is as bleak or even worse than many other developing countries
around the world, but it remains little understood. Temperature and precipitation are
two important climatic factors affected by climate change in general and global
warming in particular. Although global average temperature has warmed and cooled
many times in the past, it has been constantly rising since the mid twentieth century
and is likely to rise constantly in the future mainly due to an increased concentration
of Green House gas (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Without GHGs, the earth’s surface
temperature would be 60oC cooler than it is today (Groom et al. 2007).

All the attributable and non-attributable causes of global warming are a threat to earth
and to the very foundation of mankind on the planet earth. These CO2 emissions and
other causes are erasing the basics on which humans live and the basics which makes
earth a unique life supporting planet for mankind. Scientists use elaborate computer
models of temperature, precipitation patterns, and atmosphere circulation to study
global warming. Based on these models, scientists have made many projections about
how global warming will affect weather, glacial ice, sea levels, agriculture, wildlife,
and human health. Many impacts of rising temperatures are already being observed.

Damages caused by global warming can be illustrated with the following picture
showing the effect on ecosystem process, biological system encompassing
agriculture, economic loss, human health and environmental health.

22
Figure 3. Figure showing the impact of Global warming

Source: Chaudhary & Aryal 2009

4.3 Effects of Global warming in FDRN

The major effects that have been observed in Himalayas of Nepal due to the climate
change can be summarized as follows. However, this doesn’t mean these are the only
effects. These effects got priorities because these are widely visible to most of us.

4.3.1 Impacts on glacier melting and stream flow.

Warm temperatures is already causing significant changes to mountain glaciers

around the world, ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic, and polar sea ice in the
Arctic. Mountain glaciers have receded over the 20th century, and melting is
becoming more rapid. The feedback process may accelerate the pace of global
warming, because ice reflects sunlight back out to space, it has a cooling effect.
Water and land, which are darker than ice, absorb and retain more heat.

23
Glaciers on Kilimanjaro, the highest mountain in Africa, have lost 82 percent of their
ice since 1912 and are estimated to be gone completely by 2020. Glaciers in the
Himalayas of Asia are melting at a rate of 9 to 15 m (30 to 50 ft) per year and the
number of glaciers has already dropped from an estimated 150 in 1850 to 35 in 2007.
Annual runoff from these glaciers feeds major rivers such as the Ganges, Yangtze,
and Mekong.

Much of the literature on hydrologic simulation aims to find the sensitivity of stream
flow and glacier to climate warming by using step increases in temperature. The
United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) had warned five years ago that 20 big
glacial lakes in the country are at risk of floods from glacial lake bursts, which could
trigger huge loss of life and property. Melt water is thought to account for about 10%
of annual stream flow in Nepal (Sharma, 1977) with rivers of western Nepal receiving
more melt water than those in eastern Nepal (Kattelmann,1993). It is estimated report
which is about 40% reduction in glacier extent, 5-19% reduction in snow extent, and
8-28% reduction in seasonal stream flow with 1 °C rise in temperature for 2004-2040
(Rathore 2009). There lies threat of effect of global warming on the Himalayas of
Nepal, including Mount Everest, Nepal’s snowy pinnacles are losing their snow
cover. The glaciers are melting, creating mountain lakes that threaten to sweep away
villages situated at the base of the mountains. According to a report on BBC, there are
3,250 glaciers in the Nepalese Himalayas, and 2,315 of them contain glacial lakes that
are increasing in size at varying rates. The disappearance of glaciers also means that
the rivers fed by the glaciers may run dry in the near future. It will have long lasting
effects not only in the Himalayan region, but also to all the regions which are fed with
water from the melting of the snow down to the ocean (Himalaya Times, 2010). The
effect of GLOF that occurred at different period of time remains as stated below

24
Figure 4. Figure showing damage caused by GLOF in Nepal

Source: Chaudhary & Aryal, 2009

4.3.2 Impacts on Agriculture and Food security

Global warming of a few degrees may increase agricultural production, but not
necessarily in the same places where crops are grown now. Crops and woodlands may
also be afflicted by more insects and plant diseases. Agricultural areas will need to
adapt to changing conditions, such as by shifting the types of crops grown or
investing in drought-tolerant or heat-tolerant varieties. Scientists estimate that
warming of up to about 3 Celsius degrees (5.4 Fahrenheit degrees) could increase
global agricultural potential, but that further warming is likely to decrease this
potential. Thus, there won’t be any negative impact on agricultural production till 21st
century.

Decline in food production has threatened to the food security of people in Nepal.
Reduction in rice productivity in Nepal for 2020s (6.1-7.7%), 2050s (10.4-20.7%),
and 2080s (18.7-34.6%) from the baseline 1990s (Masutomi, 2009). In Nepal, winter
crop yield in 1997-1998 was significantly reduced (11-38% of the previous 10-year
average) due to severe sky overcast and associated drop in solar radiation (MoPE,
2004). In Nepal, good rice yield is correlated with timely and adequate monsoon
rainfall. In 2006, poor monsoon rainfall led to a 30% drop in rice production in
eastern Terai, while heavy rainfall and flooding in western Nepal reduced production
by the same amount (Regmi and Paudyal, 2009).

25
4.3.3 Impacts on Precipitation and Water Supply

As the precipitation pattern is varying in Himalayas of Nepal, Nepal will likely to

experience decreases in water resources in coming decades. The country is expected
to be wetter annually 6.22±6.56% and in monsoon 14.98±9.74%, but drier in winter -
17.58±2.53% by 2080 (Agrawala, 2003, MoPE, 2004, Rajendran and Kitoh, 2008).
The scenarios indicate 0-5% reduction in monsoon precipitation in northern Nepal
(Rupa Kumar, 2006). Increasing water temperatures can cause algal blooms and
potentially increase bacteria in water bodies (UNEP.2006).

4.3.4 Impacts on Human Health

In a warmer world, Scientists have predicted that more people will get sick or die
from heat stress in the warmer world, not only due to hotter days but more
importantly to warmer nights. More frequent and intense heat waves will further
contribute to this trend. At the same time, there will be some decreases in the number
of cold-related deaths. Diseases such as malaria, transmitted by mosquitoes and other
animal hosts, are projected to widen their range as these animal hosts move into
regions formerly too cold for them. Other tropical diseases may spread similarly,
including dengue fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis. Scientists have found that the
platelets in Human Blood composition is decreasing, which could be the catastrophic
for all individual (Parry, Canziani, Palutikof ,Linden and C.E. Hanson, 2007 )

4.4 Global Warming and National Security

National Security is concerned with the protection, preservation and furtherance of

the core values of a nation against both internal and external threats." The term
security policy provides a broader and far more accurate picture of a country's
perspective on issues critical to its survival and continuity than the terms defense
policy for two major reasons. First it does not limit itself only to threats from external
sources but also includes internal threats to the country's security. Second it does not
only examine "Threats " but also looks at the challenges the countries faces, as well
as the interest of the country in medium and long term. National security covers a

26
broad range of activities to prevent a nation from traditional to non-traditional
threats.(Katzenstein, 1996)

National security is primary national objective. The term security itself is multi-
dimensional. It encompasses virtually everything ranging from protection of an
individual and material to independence, integrity and sovereignty of the nation. The
threat to security may occur externally or internally in the forms of military
economics, cultural economic, environment’s deficiencies, terrorist or acts of social
violence etc. Various definitions that have evolved before cold war and since that
time, to the modern industrialization society, newly challenges environmental aspects
like global warming affecting livelihood of the peoples which may effects the
National Security as well.

4.4.1 Importance of national security strategy and policy

There are four main reasons for states to have an integrated and detailed NSP: they
are

4.4.1.1 To ensure that the government addresses all threats both traditional and non-
traditional in a comprehensive manner.

4.4.1.2 To increase the effectiveness of the security sector by optimizing

contributions from all security actors.

4.4.1.3 To guide the implementation of defense policy of the state.

4.4.1.4 To build domestic consensus and enhance regional and international

confidence.

NSP requires a thorough analysis of all threats to national security. Internal and
external threats have long been addressed separately, but security policy includes a
comprehensive of both the domestic and international environments. In creating such
policies, the input of all security- relevant government actors should be solicited, and
ideally from and non-governmental actors. It can help to harmonize the contributions

27
of growing number of security actors, including those at national level, local level
civil society as well as regional and international institutions. A centralized process of
policy formulation that encompasses input from different sources will help forge a
common understanding of security. A coherent and transparent policy communicates
the security concerns of a state to the international community, thus facilitating
international understanding and cooperation.

4.5 Under What Conditions Global Warming Pose a Threat to

National Security

Potential threats to the nation’s security require careful study and prudent
planning to counter and mitigate potential detrimental outcomes. The serious
consequences to national security those are likely from unmitigated climate
change. In already weakened states, extreme weather events, drought,
.flooding, sea level rise, retreating glaciers, and the rapid spread of life-
threatening diseases will themselves have likely effects: increased migrations,
expanded ungoverned spaces, exacerbated underlying conditions that insurgent
groups seek to exploit, and increased internal conflicts. In developed countries,
these conditions threaten to disrupt economic trade and introduce new security
challenges, such as increased spread of infectious disease and increased
immigration. Overall, climate change has the potential to disrupt way of life
and force changes in how we keep ourselves safe and secure by adding a new
hostile and stressing factor into the national and international security
environment.

Developed nations may experience increases in immigrants and refugees as

drought increases and food production declines. Pandemic disease caused by
the spread of infectious diseases and extreme weather events and natural
disasters, globalization and other factors that have changed the security
landscape. Among other factors, environmental destruction, whether caused by
human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes,

28
earthquakes or tsunamis. These challenges are not traditional national security
concerns, such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed
they can threaten national security because climate change also has the
potential to create natural and humanitarian disasters on a scale far beyond
those we see today, its consequences will likely foster political instability.

4.5.1 An overview of Climate Change in Nepal in Security

Perception

Nepal has a wide variation of climates from subtropical in the south, warm and cool
in the hills to cold in the mountains within a horizontal distance of less than 200 km
(DHM, 2005, p.32). The climate of Nepal is dominated by monsoon and about 80%
of annual precipitation occurs during the summer (DHM, 2005, p.23). The amount of
precipitation varies considerably from place to place because of the non-uniform
rugged terrain. However, the amount of rainfall generally declines from east to west
(DHM, 2005, p.26). The main reason of climate change is the result of the global
warming. Peoples are directly affected by the various hazardous like disease relating
temperatures deficiencies, flood, landslide, Fire etc. The main cause for Cancers and
mental disorder are the result of such global warming.

4.5.2 Direct Impacts

The problems of today, such as drought, forest fires, and flooding, will only be
magnified by climate change. In Nepal, changes in monsoon patterns will greatly
exacerbate the situation of unacceptable presence of poverty and inequalities of
opportunities in the country. While many Nepalese people are coping autonomously
to current stresses, the state must design and implement effective strategies to adapt to
climate change impact to achieve economic and social progress. Adapting to long and
short term climate-related problems need creative engagement among government,
market actors and the civic movement. (Dixit, 2009) (Dixit, 2009)

29
During survey also respondents has also given their combined opinion on whether
global warming have any bearing on national security or not. 64.58% of respondents
mentioned about the likely effect of global warming on national security whereas
35.41% of respondents mentioned that global warming have no connotation with
national security as depicted by the picture below.

Effect of Global warming on national

security of FDRN

35%
IMPACTS
DOESNOT IMPACT

65%

Figure 4. Figure showing opinion of respondents on whether global warming

has any effect to national security of FRDN or not based on survey conducted among
240 respondents in Kathmandu in 2018.

S.No IMPACTS DOESNOT IMPACT

1 155 85

Table 2. Table showing opinion of respondents on whether global warming has

any effect to national security of FRDN or not based on survey conducted among 240
respondents in Kathmandu in 2018.

30
Looking at the result of survey done with 240 respondents studying different faculty
at teaching institutions of Kathmandu, it is seen that majority of samples have given
their opinion that global warming has an effect on national security of FDRN. This
has further been studied to have justification as illustrated in the following
paragraphs.

4.5.3 Food Security Prelude National Security in Nepal

Climate change is posing a threat on present and future food security in low income
countries. But, the actual effect of the climate change on food security is not known.
Using secondary data reported by the government, the paper examines the effects of
climate change on food security in Nepal in the context of policies of
commercialization of farm production. Statistical analysis is used to delineate the
situation of food security in the country and regression analysis for exploring the
effects of global warming on domestic production of major cereals. The results are
discussed at global, national, household and individual levels empirically and
qualitatively. The results suggest that a rise in minimum temperature decreases the
productivity of rice increasing threat of food insecurity. The paper suggests some
policy measures for improving food security situation in the country and open up
some areas for further research. (The Journal of Agriculture and Environment, 2012)

4.5.4 Climate Change as a Security Threat

At this point, let us look at some of the evidence that supports contention that climate
change may constitute a direct threat to the homeland or an extra territorial threat to
our interests. How it’s Direct Threats to the Homeland? In my research into what
might or might not constitute a direct threat to the homeland, I looked at abrupt
climate change, melting of ice in Himalayas, sea level rise, and extreme weather
events.

Mobilization of more manpower like Governments workers, volunteers, non-

governmental officials to mitigate the likely threats pose more expenses and reduce
the national income which may leads the degradation of national power.

31
4.5.5 Climate Change and Conflict.

Climate change will likely make a number of problems worse, particularly extreme
weather events. But does it increase the prospects for violent conflict? As Andrew
Price-Smith suggested earlier, increasing deprivation caused by climate change might
lead to poverty which in turn would lead to conflict. However, there is a real concern
that those causal linkages may not, in fact, be credible. (C Pumphrey, 2008)

4.6 Brief Analysis

Nepal is blessed with kindness of Mother Nature, has a large pool of honest and
hardworking people and enjoys tremendous goodwill of both our big neighbors and
the international community. All Nepalese really want is to enjoy the fruits of their
own hard work in peace, freedom and security. Peoples are united in their wish to
have the independent, stable, federal democratic, peaceful and prosperous Nepal.
There are lot of challenges to keep the peaceful nation where as Global Warming is
also the major challenges for national security. Of course, the nature of our geography
is such that climatic change hampers the daily work of the kind hearted people by the
different kinds of hazards.

The vital strategic interests of nation like economic development, political stability,
national sovereignty and territorial integrity preserve by the status of livelihood of
people. Global Warming directly causing the various disease and indirectly posing the
threat to national security. Livelihoods of nature populations are projected to be
seriously challenged due to climate change Events such as fires, floods, landslides
and droughts are prominent risks. Gradual decline in resilience and power to cope
with climatic stresses further add to the pressures on their livelihoods. Forest
productivity is important for sustained economic development of communities and
regions. Some regions may lose important economic revenues for example in Nepal
climate change may have impacts on the tourist industry. Mountain region is the
main source of natural herbal medicine plant, which is main export item from
Himalaya region to earn foreign currency. large mountain population are depend on
it and due to the negative impact from climate change these natural herbs are
gradually disappearing which has affected main source of income for local people.

32
Nepalese people’s livelihoods have been affected by climate change in many ways.
Snow melting, glacier retreat, drought and desertification, flooding, frequent fire,
species shift, and disease incidences are main extreme which affects tourism
activities, agro productivity, biodiversity and forest resources. These ecological
responses can consequently lead to serious on people livelihood and well-being.

As a result of the changes, climate change could hamper the achievement of

many of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), including those on
poverty eradication, child mortality, malaria, and other diseases, and
environmental sustainability. In addition, the impacts of climate change will
aggravate existing social and environmental problems and lead to migration
within and across national borders.

In addition to this, change in climate has put additional stress to the livelihoods
of the people. As a result of shift in weather conditions, the coastal countries
are exposed to many calamities such as flood, draughts, landslides, soil
erosion, and shift in farming practices coupled with decreased or stagnated
crop productivities. Melting of Himalayan snowline due to increased
temperatures could increase annual water discharge in short term but in the
long run an acute shortage of water is foreseen. Thus, water and agriculture are
anticipated the most affected sectors in the future. The multiple stresses of
climate change would disrupt the ecology of mountainous and hilly regions
and would affect human population profoundly. Agriculture productivity
would suffer severe losses and attainment of food security would be under
tremendous threats. With further rise in temperature its impacts on human
being will increase tremendously. The question stands tall here to everyone ---
“Is increasing global warming a threat to security?” It is definitive that the
global warming will continue to disease the human survival across the globe,
however, the developing world would be at the most affected end. So Nepal’s
national security is vulnerable by Global Warming too.

33
 CHAPTER V

MITIGATION OF GLOBAL WARMING IN NEPAL

Global warming is a complex problem felt on local scale which will exist for decades
and centuries to come. It causes climate change It involves many dimensions like
science, economics, society, politics, moral and ethical questions. Carbon dioxide,
the heat-trapping greenhouse gas that has driven recent global warming, lingers in the
atmosphere for hundreds of years, and the planet (especially the oceans) takes time to
respond to warming. So even if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases today,
global warming and climate change will continue to affect future generations. In this
way, humanity is “committed” to some level of climate change (NASA, 2013).

Geological studies have proved that warming and cooling of earth is a continuous
process. Current development is showing the unprecedented increase in temperature
so is too alarming for the whole world. Scientists are now in agreement that human
activities releasing GHGs into the atmosphere are responsible for the already
observed global warming causing climactic changes (IPCC 2007). This increasing
trend is supported by deforestation and increase on investments in fossil‐ fuel
dependent infrastructure and industries.

The bigger sufferers of this will be mostly the ones who have done the least to cause
climate change i.e. poor nations and poor people since they don’t have enough funds ,
skilful human resources and effective legislation neither to adapt nor to mitigate
global warming. Nepal is no exception to this reality. However, a global effort is
necessary to combat this widespread problem.

During survey respondents have different view on who have the responsibility to
control global warming. 22.5% of respondents opined that it is the sole responsibility
on international community mainly the developed countries who are the major
contributors of GHG. Whereas 15% of respondents gave opinion to make federal
government of Nepal responsible to control effect of global warming in Nepal.

34
Similarly 10.83% looked it to be the responsibility of different states and local
government. Finally huge chunk of respondents i.e. 51.66% opined that controlling
global warming needs combined international, national and local effort. This is stated
in the pie chart below

Responsibility to control global warming

22% INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY
FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
52% STATE GOVERNMENT
15%
ALL

11%

Figure 4. Figure showing opinion of respondents on responsibility to control

effect of global warming in Nepal based on survey conducted among 240 respondents
in Kathmandu in 2018

Responsibili Environmen MBB Geolog Economi Politic Strateg

ty tal science S y cs al ic
Scienc Studies
e

Internationa 20 5 7 1 1 20
l
community

Federal 13 10 6 3 1 3
Govt

State 4 4 12 1 1 4

35
 All 3 21 15 35 37 13

Table 2. Table showing opinion of respondents on responsibility to control

effect of global warming in Nepal based on survey conducted among 240 respondents
in Kathmandu in 2018

Looking at the result of survey done with 240 respondents studying different faculty
at teaching institutions of Kathmandu, it is seen that majority of samples have given
their opinion that it is international community’s responsibility to control effect of
global warming in Nepal in combination to national and local efforts.

Apart from survey, study has proved that combating against global warming demands
three pronged approaches namely mitigation, adaptation and legislation. The major
aspects for combating against global warming is further illustrated with the picture
below

Picture 5. Picture showing combating global warming and climate change

36
Nepalese should be concerned about climate change since this phenomenon might
have substantial adverse impacts mainly on water resources and hydro power;
agriculture and human health which has the direct threat to the national security of
Nepal. Therefore mitigation and adaptation measures are very important and needs
national attention. It needs three pronged approach

5.1 Adaptation

Adapting to life in a changing climate which involves adjusting to actual or expected

future climate. The goal is to reduce our vulnerability to the harmful effects of
climate change (like sea-level encroachment, more intense extreme weather events or
food insecurity). It also encompasses making the most of any potential beneficial
opportunities associated with climate change. Throughout history, people and
societies have adjusted to and coped with changes in climate and extremes with
varying degrees of success. Climate change (drought in particular) has been at least
partly responsible for the rise and fall of civilizations. Earth’s climate has been
relatively stable for the past 12,000 years and this stability has been crucial for the
development of our modern civilization and life as we know it. Modern life is tailored
to the stable climate we have become accustomed to. As our climate changes, we will
have to learn to adapt. The faster the climate changes, the harder it could be
(NASA,2014).

5.2 Legislation

Developing different laws that discourages environmental degradation and is in

harmony with international convention and provisioned in national law is Legislation.
There are different international conventions held to curb the effect of global
warming. Nepal is a signatory of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) so Its policies are mandatory to Nepal. They serve as the formal
meeting of the UNFCCC Parties (Conference of the Parties, COP) to assess progress
in dealing with climate change, and beginning in the mid-1990s, to negotiate
the Kyoto Protocol to establish legally binding obligations for developed countries to
reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

37
Since global warming has global impacts, a concerted global effort is the only cure to
reduce its effects. Therefore, an institutionalized global effort on GHG emission
started with the establishment of IPCC in 1988 by two pioneer organizations working
on environment – the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) and the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) , However Nepal is bounded to follow Kyoto
protocol, green summit and decision of UNFCC done at different COP.

5.2.1 Different national efforts have already been taken in Nepal

Nepal made several attempts to come up with a strong agenda for climate
conferences, but couldn’t make any substantial presence during such conferences
which has been the tragedy in GHG emission mitigation regime. Nepal due to its
geographical setting is extremely vulnerable to climate change, yet it has one of the
lowest emissions in the world of 0.025% of total GHG emissions. To address
different effects climate related policies and sensitization efforts on national and
international level have been organized by Nepal which are as follows

5.2.1.1 Climate Change Policy, 2011. It addresses Vulnerability Assessment,

Capacity Enhancement, Resource Allocation, Mainstreaming in Planning Process and
Social Mobilization

5.2.1.2 National Periodic Plan (2013/14-2015/16) It incorporates Information

Dissemination, Integration in Development Programs and Capacity for Climate
Change Resilient

5.2.1.3 Climate Change Budget Code, 2012. It has provisioned for Budget tracking

5.2.1.4 National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) which is estimated with

cost of US$ 350 million has been made to incorporate Country Vulnerability
Assessment Coping Strategy Development and Community Engagement

5.2.1.5 Local Adaption Plan for Action (LAPA) which envisages to commit 80% of
estimated NAPA cost to be spent at the local level has planned to Integrating climate
change into local participatory planning process and implementing adaptation actions

38
5.2.1.6 Rock from Everest. Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal’s gift ‘The Rock
From Everest’ to US President Obama was an attempt to assert symbolic pressure to
the head of the state of one of the greatest GHG emitters on Sep. 2009.

5.2.1.7 Regional conference on climate change. Kathmandu to Copenhagen (Aug.

31 – Sep. 01, 2009) was held in Kathmandu so as to forge similar regional ground on
the climate change issue ended with 10 points agreement prior to the COP 15.

5.2.1.8 Cabinet meeting at Kalapatthar. It was done at the altitude of 17192 ft

(next to Everest base Camp) held on 4th December 2009 gave a symbolic message of
impact of climate change on Himalayas just before the summit at Copenhagen.

5.3 Mitigation
Reducing emissions of and stabilizing the levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere is mitigation. reducing climate change – involves reducing the flow of
heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, either by reducing sources of
these gases (for example, the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat or transport)
or enhancing the “sinks” that accumulate and store these gases (such as the oceans,
forests and soil). The goal of mitigation is to avoid significant human
interference with the climate system, and “stabilize greenhouse gas levels in a
timeframe sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, ensure
that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner” (United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change, 2014). from the 2014 report on Mitigation of Climate Change from
the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, page 4). It is
important to reduce the effects of climate change by restraining activities that produce
carbon and other greenhouse gases. Certain mitigation measures can be followed to
reduce carbon emission and enhance carbon sinks, as suggested by the international
community and agreed upon in conventions. Forests provide a carbon reservoir as
they contain about 60% of all carbon stored in terrestrial ecosystems (CIFOR, 2007)
and they serve as important adaptation buffers. Since deforestation contributes about
one‐fourth of global carbon emissions, the first and most important task is to curb
deforestation and invest in reforestation activities. This can be achieved by providing
rural people with alternative energy sources, such as biogas, solar power, and

39
hydroelectricity and by adopting better land use management to improve carbon
sinks. If we preserve forests, they can store large amounts of carbon and reduce
warming substantially. Non‐agriculture employment and other alternative income
sources can also reduce the dependence of people on forest resources. In farming,
better agricultural technologies, including introduction of drought‐tolerant
(water‐stress) crops that perform well with low external inputs (e.g. chemical
fertilizers, pesticides), can also offset crop losses that might be caused by drought.
These measures all require strong and vibrant policies and commitment to
international treaties such as facilitation of the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM) and carbon markets that facilitate payment for important environmental
services.

5.3.1 Reducing the Rate of Climate Change

The facts, figures and analysis clearly indicate towards the necessity of applying all
possible methods to reduce the rate of climate change to save our Himalayas. The
below mentions are few measures which can be apply to reduce the impact of climate
change.

5.3.2 Alternative Energy Sources

One important way to fight climate change is to use alternative sources of renewable
energy which will not release harmful emissions. Some of these cleaner sources of
renewable energy include wind energy, solar energy, water or hydropower, biomass,
and geothermal energy. It will help in reducing global warming and fight climate
change.

5.3.3 Energy Saving

Education and awareness are key elements for energy saving. Judicious use of energy
and minimum use of it in necessity can help a lot. Use of appliances like the compact
fluorescent light (CFL) bulbs, switching off our electrical appliances when they are
not in use is some examples.

40
5.3.4 Green Driving

Given the number of automobiles in the world today, they emit a substantial amount
of greenhouse gases and contribute significantly to global warming and climate
change. The best strategy on how to reduce climate change is definitely to reduce the
use of automobiles. Use of public transport, campaign like Nepalese Army adopting
in Kathmandu valley for Friday on view of Chief of Army Staff (COAS) are some
examples.

5.3.5 Reduce, Reuse and Recycle practices

The culture of consumerism today encourages people to buy and throw. For each item
that we purchase and use, energy and resources are used in its manufacture,
packaging, transportation and retail, and ultimately its disposal. Adoption of a
lifestyle guided by the Reduce Reuse Recycle principle helps lot to reduce climate
change and it’s impact

5.3.6 Reforestation

The cleanest and most efficient remover of carbon dioxide from our atmosphere
actually comes free. Deforestation greatly reduced the earth’s ability to remove
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Reforestation and minimizing the use of wood
product is key against effect of climate change.

5.3.7 Organic farming

Sustainable and organic agriculture helps to counteract climate change by restoring

soil organic matter content as well as reduce soil erosion and improve soil physical
structure. Organic farming also does not use chemical fertilizers that release
substantial nitrous oxide and methane (greenhouse gases) into the environment, and
as such reduces global warming, while at the same time maintaining crop yields. The
mitigation measures remains as follows

41
5.3.8 Green shopping

One point on how to reduce climate change through green shopping tips is to buy
local products instead of those produced overseas. Transporting exotic fruits and
vegetables from one destination to another requires a lot of energy, usually from the
burning of fossil fuel, which contributes to greenhouse gas emissions and global
warming. Moreover, in attempts to keep the fruits and vegetables fresh, chemical
pesticides and preservatives are used, which again contribute to toxins and
greenhouse gases being released into the atmosphere.

5.3.9 Education

Education without any objection is the strongest weapon to produce positive result.
Individual, group, organization and whole nation need to make educated and aware
on this matter. Imparting the issue in high school syllabus is necessary to educate
young generation.

42
 CHAPTER VI

MAJOR FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

43
 APPENDIX ‘A’

SURVEY QUESTIONERS

Good Morning/Good Afternoon Sir/Madam/Ms

As I am the student of Higher Command and Management Course in Nepal Army. I am

undertaking research on “Global Warming; Its Impacts on Federal Democratic
Republic of Nepal and Mitigation Measures”. The following questionnaire has been
prepared to have the views on this research topic. My humble request is to you that
please fill the answers of the questions below. For your personnel secrecy it is not
mandatory to mention your name in this paper

Col Niraj Paudyal

Higher Command and Management Course

Thank you for co-operation.

1. What is the cause of Global warming?

a. Carbon dioxide
b. Methane
c. Carbon Monoxide
d. All of above

2. Who do you think is the main cause of global warming ?

a. Human Being
b. Nature

3. Do you think Global warming have any impact on national security of Nepal?
a. Yes
b. No

4. Who do you think is most responsibel to control global warming in Nepal?

a. International community
b. Federal Government
c. State Government
d. All the people

44
 APPENDIX ‘B’

INTERVIEW QUESTIONERS

1. What is your understanding on global warming?

2. What are the causes of global warming with special reference to Nepal?

3. What are the effects of global warming on national security of Nepal?

4. What are the means to control effect of global warming?

5. Whom do you think is the most responsible body of the state to control global
warming and why?

45
 REFERENCES

Ajaya Dixit (2009), Institution for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal 2009,
World Resources Report, article on World Resources Institute.

Apar Paudel and Bimal Raj Regmi (2009) Agrobiodiversity maintenance to support
Nepal’s National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314948077_Climate_Change_and_
Agrobiodiversity_in_Nepal_Opportunities_to_include_agrobiodiversity_main
tenance_to_support_Nepal's_National_Adaptation_Programme_of_Action_N
APAEnter_title

Bodansky, Danial. 2009. Climate Change: Top 10 Percepts for U.S. Foreign
Policy. Jan. Issue Brief # 09-01.

Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha,

R. Tabo and P. Yanda (2007). Africa. In: Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II
to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden,
and C.E. Hanson (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
United Kingdom.

C Pumphrey 2008, Global Climate Change: National Security Implications,

publication work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States
Code, Section 101

https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/pdffiles/PUB862.pdf

Changnon, Stanley A. and Bell, Gerald D. 2000. 1997–1998:The Climate

Event of the Century. London: Oxford University Press.
Dangermond, Jack and Artz, Matt (2010), climate change is a geographical problem

DHM. (2005): Climatologically records of Nepal 1991–2005. Kathmandu,

Department of Hydrology and Meteorology HMG-Nepal, 232 pp.

46
DIFD.2007, Combating Climatic Change, London, UK http://www.dfid.co.
uk/climate change/>

Dixit A. (2009), Climate Change in Nepal: Impacts and Adaptive Strategies,

Institution for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal. Retrieved on 14
July, 2015 from www.wri.org/climate-change-Nepal-impacts html

Easterling, W.E., P.K. Aggarwal, P. Batima, K.M. Brander, L. Erda, S.M. Howden,
A.Kirilenko, J. Morton, J.-F. Soussana, J. Schmidhuber, and F.N. Tubiello
(2007). Food, Fibre, and Forest Products. In: Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerab ility. Contribution of Working Group
II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.Parry, M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der
Linden and C.E. Hanson (eds.). Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom.

Fagan, Brian. 2003. The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and
Fall of Civilizations. London: Oxford University Press.

Gingrich, Newt and Terry L. Maple. 2007. A Contract With the Earth.
Oakland CA: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Glenn and Gordon, 2007. State of the Future Climate Change. Washington
D.C.: University Press Washington.

Himalaya Times, Nepal’s Efforts to Save the Himalayas, (H:\nepal's effort to save
himalayas.mht, 9 Aug. 2010), 21 Nov 2010.

Hoggan and Littlemore. 2009. “Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny

Global Warming” New York: Greystone Books Publishers.

IPCC. (2001) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability,

Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press

47
IPCC. 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios.Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Secretariat. Geneva, Switzerland.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/>

IPCC. 2001. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change Secretariat. Geneva, Switzerland.
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/>

IPCC. 2007. Fourth Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Secretariat. Geneva, Switzerland. http://www.ipcc.ch

Kattelmann, R. C. (1987) Uncertainty in assessing Himalayan water resources.

Mountain Res. and Development 7(3), 279-286. Kattelmann, R. C. (1990)
Hydrology and development of the Arun River, Nepal. In: Hydrology of
Mountainous Regions. I - Hydrological Measurements; the Water Cycle (ed.
by H. Lang & A. Musy) (Proc. two Symposia, Lausanne, August 1990), 777-
784. IAHS Publ. No. 193.

Katzenstein, P.J. (1996). The culture of national security: norms and identity in world
politics. New York: Columbia University Press.

M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson,
"Magnitudes of Impact : Summary for Policymakers” Climate Change 2007:
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate,
IPCC 2007b
(http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/spmsspm-c-15-
magnitudes-of.html. Retrieved 2018-05-11).

Maslin, Mark. 2007. Global Warming: A Very Short Introduction. London:

Oxford University Press.

Mastrandrea, Michael and Stephen H. Schneider. 2009. Global Warming

(Microsoft @ Encarta @ 2009).

MoPE 2000; State of Environment Nepal, His Majesty's Government Ministry of

Population and Environment Kathmandu, Nepal

48
NRC (2010). Advancing the Science of Climate Change . National Research Council.
The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, USA.

Pachauri, Rajendra K. ed. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report,

Summary for Policy Makers. Geneva, Switzerland.

Parry M.L., O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds.,
2007, Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, 982pp.

Pumphrey, Carolyn. Eds.2008. Global Climate Change: National Security

Implications, Carlisle Barracks, PA: Strategic Studies Institute Press.

Sarkar, A.N. 2010. Global Climate Change: Beyond Copenhagen, Cambridge

University Press. Cambridge, UK

Shah, Anup. 2008. Climate Change and Global Warming: An Introduction.

Kathmandu: Sudesha Publishers.

Sharma, C. K. (1977) River Systems of Nepal. S. Sharma, Kathmandu, 214 pp.

The Journal of Agriculture and Environment Vol:13, Jun.2012, Page 9-19

UN. 2007. The Millenium Development Goals Report, United Nations. New York.
http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/mdg2007.pdf>

UNDP. 2004. Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change. Developing

Strategies, Policies and Measures, [Lim B, Spanger-Siegfried E (eds)],
Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK. ISBN-13: 9780521617604 /
ISBN-10: 052161760X.

UNEP. 2002. Africa Environment Outlook: Past, Present and Future Perspectives.
United Nations Environment Programme. http://www.grida.no/aeo/

UNEP. 2007. Global outlook for ice and snow. <http://www.grida.no/geo/>

UNFCCC. 2007a. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in small island

developing states – Background paper for the expert meeting on adaptation

49
 for small island developing States. UNFCCC Secretariat.
Bonn,Germany.
<http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/adverse_effects_and_response_measures_ar
t_48/application/pdf/ 200702_sids_adaptation_bg.pdf>

UNFCCC. 2007b. Background paper – Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to

climate change in Asia. UNFCCC Secretariat. Bonn, Germany.
<http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/methodologies_for/vulnerability_and_adapt
ation/ap plication/pdf/unfccc_asian_workshop_background_paper.pdf>

UNFCCC. 2007c. Report on the African Regional Workshop on Adaptation.

UFCCC/SBI/2007/2. UN Office at Geneva, Switzerland. 15 pp.
<http://unfccc.int/ resource/docs/2007/sbi/eng/02.pdf>

UNFCCC. 2007d. Report on the expert meeting on adaptation for small island
developing States. UNFCCC/SBI/2007/11. UN Office at Geneva, Switzerland.
17 pp. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/sbi/eng/11.pdf United Nations
Environment Programme.<http://www.unep.org/geo/geo_ice/>

UNFPA: State of the World’s Population. Facing a changing world: women,

population and climate, Geneva: November 18, 2009.

World Bank, 2011: World Development Indicators 2011.

Yuji Masutomi (2009) Development of highly accurate global polygonal drainage

basin data , an free article
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7186.

http://www.climatenepal.org.np/main/downloadFile.php?fn=fcy7m8j1h3v.pdf&ft=ap
plication/pdf&d=publication

http://www.forestaction.org/app/webroot/vendor/tinymce/editor/plugins/filemanager/f
iles/images/stories/pdfs/journal_of_forest_and_livelihood/vol_8_1/1_Chaudha
ry_and_Aryal_Global_warming_in_Nepal.pdf

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/08/14/earth-orbit-changes-were-key-to-
antarctic-warming-that-ended-last-ice-age/

http://www.washington.edu/news/2013/08/14/earth-orbit-changes-were-key-to-
antarctic-warming-that-ended-last-ice-age/

50
http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/world-resources-report/climate-change-nepal-
impacts-and-adaptive-strategies

http://www.wwf.org.au/what-we-do/climate/causes-of-global-warming#gs.kBGYaf8

http://www.wwf.org.au/what-we-do/climate/causes-of-global-warming#gs.kBGYaf8

https://climate.nasa.gov/solutions/adaptation-mitigation/

51