1984 X. Zhang and E.

Gockenbach: Determination of the Thermal Aging Factor for Life Expectancy of 550 kV Transformers

Determination of the Thermal Aging Factor for Life

Expectancy of 550 kV Transformers with a Preventive Test
Xiang Zhang and Ernst Gockenbach
Institute of Electric Power Systems, Division of High Voltage Engineering Department of Electrical Engineering
Leibniz University of Hanover
Callin Avenue 25A
D-30167 Hanover, Germany

ABSTRACT
It is feasible to survey actual performances of degradation for 550 kV transformers by a
preventive test. By means of condition monitoring, it is possible to forecast the
transformers’ lifetime. Such data, particularly in an application where few or no
failures are expected, can provide considerably more information than the failure-time
data from a traditional accelerated life test. In order to develop a life model for 550 kV
transformers, the effect of temperature on a thermal aging factor is taken into account
since it is associated with various degradation performances of a transformer. With the
aid of measurement, the thermal aging factor is analysed by the probability plot and the
least-squares fitting of data so that all unknown parameters of the life model are
estimated. The method will extrapolate the lifetime of large power transformers from a
preventive test in practice.
Index Terms — Aging factor, degradation, performance, large power transformer,
least-squares fitting, life model, parameter, preventive test, probability plot,
temperature.

1 INTRODUCTION the lifetime under normal operating conditions, because

LARGE power transformers are a key component in
electric power systems, and are appropriate for analysis in a
risk assessment program. The risk of condition deterioration
and wear-out failure increases as a large power transformer
approaches the end of its useful service life. Therefore, it is
preferable to forecast the lifetime of large power
transformers before failure occurs.
Generally, both operational and accelerated life tests are
used to obtain information about the lifetime and failure
mechanisms of transformers [1-6]. Nevertheless, the failure
data of a power transformer may not be attainable from a
routine test on the complete transformer due to its high
operational reliability under normal conditions. In many
accelerated life tests on laboratory samples, there is a
measured point of failure, however the gradual decline of
physical properties does not exist for a complete
transformer. In these laboratory experiments, a specific
failure mechanism of insulating materials cannot represent
the general ageing behavior of a power transformer
throughout the entire operational period. Moreover, all
time-to-failure measurements are derived from an
accelerated life test at high stress. Thus, the failure data in
an accelerated condition usually cannot be used to estimate
Manuscript received on 20 January 2012, in final form 10 May 2013.
timely parallel processes are more likely to depend on each
other. Even if the accelerated life test is the most useful in
comparison to other tests, it is restricted to application, due
to particularity and high expense.
With regard to the existing obstacles in previous
investigations, a beneficial approach is required to predict
the lifetime and to estimate the failure rate of a large power
transformer and its major components [7-8]. As a
preventive test is used to examine actual degradation
performances of a transformer, it is possible to predict its
lifetime in practice. By means of monitoring technique,
technical diagnosis permits a condition evaluation, which
summarizes obvious defects of a transformer. In place of
the commonly used rule referred to in [9-14], which
predicts a decrease in insulation life by one half for each 6
or 8 °C rise in temperature, a new method of analysis
proves to be more capable of extrapolating results from a
preventive test. Thus, a thermal aging factor is applied to
predict the lifetime of a large power transformer under
operating conditions. It is clear that such a method,
particularly for 550 kV power transformers where few or no
failures are expected, can provide considerably more
information than a traditional accelerated life test.
This paper will not discuss the problem of performing
tests or selecting material’s physical properties which best

1070-9878/13/$25.00 © 2013 IEEE

IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation
correspond to the failure point or imminent failure point of
a power transformer. This paper begins at a point where
such a test has already been carried out and discusses the
use of data from a preventive test.
2 THERMAL AGING FACTOR
According to IEC and IEEE standards [15], ageing is
defined as an occurrence of irreversible deleterious changes
in components or equipment which affect their service
ability to satisfy requested performances. For practical
purposes, the relationship of the time-to-failure between the
accelerated and normal conditions is referred to as the
thermal aging factor AF>1, thus the time-scale
transformation is summarized as follows:
t o  AF  t s
where to and ts are the time-to-failure under normal stress
and at high stress level.
A life model is defined as a mathematically derived,
predominately deterministic model, relating time-to-failure
to environmental, physical and operational characteristics
of an ageing process. The life model is thus predicated on
knowledge of the ageing mechanism and the root cause of
failure that can be empirically derived from
experimentation and observation. A power transformer and
its components deteriorate gradually due to constant
exposure to electrical field, moisture, high temperature,
vibration and other elements, which ultimately lead to
failure. The life of a power transformer is influenced by
thermal, mechanical, and electrical stresses [16-17], and is
most frequently terminated by one of the latter two factors.
However, these effects can be increased and accelerated
above a certain temperature, thus making the thermal aspect
one of the ultimate influences. Therefore, it is highly
desirable that the life of a power transformer under any
operating conditions be calculated by the thermal aging
factor if all ageing agents are included in a definition of the
thermal aging factor. Remembering that the thermal aging
factor may show how time-to-failure varies with
temperature, it is recommended that a more general and
accurate mathematical form of the thermal aging factor be
taken as:
 1 1 
T0  
 298 273 
AF  
or
1
  25
AF   T0
where T0, and are the Kelvin- and Celsius temperatures
and the coefficient for the life model, respectively.
The constant  is a scaling factor that determines a
mathematical function of the thermal aging factor. T0 is
related to the activation energy, which is a critical
parameter in the life model. Both values depend on the
failure mechanisms and materials involved.
Vol. 20, No. 6; December 2013 1985
3 DETERMINATION OF THERMAL
AGING FACTOR
A degradation model is developed from the general rate
theory [18] relating to an underlying degradation process.
Usually such a model starts with a deterministic description
of performance changes – often in form of a differential
equation or a differential system of equations. By means of
the thermal aging factor, the deterioration of components
and equipment can be introduced into the degradation
model. Therefore, the degradation model, which relates
initial, operating or environmental conditions to an
evolution of performance variables with the model
parameters, is set up as follows:
d  x
(1)   AF R0   ,    |t 0  1 (4)
dt  x0 
where R0, x, xand are the shape parameter of the
degradation model, the constant with the initial condition,
the performance parameter, the initial performance
parameter and the ratio of the latter two terms, respectively.
The thermal aging factor AF can be obtained from the
measured degradation performance and the service time t
by using an integral transformation of the equation (4)
 1  1
AF  (5)
(  1) R0t
The shape parameter of the equation (4) is the same at
all stress levels (including normal conditions). In other
words, the shape parameter is independent of the thermal
aging factor. As long as the shape parameter and the
initial constant R0 under the initial conditions are obtained
by a preventive test, they can be utilized to estimate the
thermal aging factor AF at any time and under any condition
as shown in the equation (5). To identify the mathematical
form of the equation (2) or (3) with the model parameters
T0 and , the combination of the equation (2) or (3) with
the thermal aging factor AF provides a useful graphical
presentation. Such a plot can be acquired by measuring the
change in a physical property at an elevated temperature
if apreventive test is fulfilled in a reasonable amount of
time.
(2)
4 CASE STUDIES
In illustrating this method for the determination of the
thermal aging factor, a variety of degradation
characteristics of 550 kV transformers from the East
(3) China Grid were afforded by a preventive test. In this
study, information relative to the actual statuses of 185
transformers of the same type was collected from 40
substations with 22 years of operational experience [7-
8]. Figures 1-12 display the characteristics of
degradation with service time for total dissolved
combustible gas (TDCG) concentration, all hydrocarbon
concentration, CO2 concentration, acidity, interfacial
tension (IFT), power factor, water content, withstand
1986 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Determination of the Thermal Aging Factor for Life Expectancy of 550 kV Transformers

voltage and insulation resistance 60 and 600 (high, 0.012

middle, low-ground or high, middle-low, ground) of 550

Power factor
kV transformers. The insulation resistance 60 or 600 is
measured after 1 or 10 minutes of testing. The “high, 0.006
middle, low and ground” represents the different
connection method. As a consequence, ageing diagnosis
and evaluation can be fulfilled by resorting to an 0
observation of appropriately selected properties, which 0 4000 8000
are sensitive to the ageing deterioration.
Service time (day)
Figure 4. Calculated (line) and measured power factors of transformer
500 oil over service time.
TDCG (ppm)

20
250

Water content (ppm)

0 10
0 4000 8000

Service time (day)

Figure 1. Calculated (line) and measured total dissolved combustible 0
0 4000 8000
gas (TDCG) concentrations of transformer oil over service time.
Service time (day)
400
Figure 5. Calculated (line) and measured water content of transformer
All hydrocarbon (ppm)

oil over service time.

0.03
Acidity [mgKOH/g]

200

0.015

0
0 4000 8000
0
0 4000 8000
Service time (day)
Service time (day)
Figure 2. Calculated (line) and measured all hydrocarbon Figure 6. Calculated (line) and measured acidity of transformer oil over
concentrations of transformer oil over service time. service time.

40
Interfacial tension (mN/m)

8000
CO2 (ppm)

4000 35

0
0 4000 8000
30
0 3000 6000
Service time (day)
Service time (day)
Figure 3. Calculated (line) and measured CO2 gas concentrations of Figure 7. Calculated (line) and measured interfacial tensions of
transformer oil over service time. transformer oil over service time.
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 20, No. 6; December 2013 1987

1.5 10
70 4

Withstand voltage (kV)

Insulation resistance (M ohm)

55
7500

40
0 4000
Service time (day)
Figure 8. Calculated (line) and measured withstand voltages of
transformer oil over service time.
8000
0
0 3000 6000
Service time (day)
Figure 11. Calculated (line) and measured insulation resistances 60
(high, middle – low, ground) of transformer oil with service time.

5 10
4
3 10
4
Insulation resistance (M ohm)

Insulation resistance (M ohm)

1.75 10
4
2.5 10
4

5000
0 3000 6000
0
0 2500 5000
Service time (day)
Service time (day)
Figure 12. Calculated (line) and measured insulation resistances 60
(high, middle low – ground) of transformer oil with service time.
Figure 9. Calculated (line) and measured insulation resistances 600
(high, middle – low, ground) of transformer oil with service time. The model of equation (4) usually portrays a valid
relationship between the operating time and the
performance variable with the shape parameter. The shape
8 10
4
parameter is obtained by simulating Figures 1 – 12. With
the aid of the degradation parameters in the initial
Insulation resistance (M ohm)

condition, other parameters R0 and x can be solved as well.

Subsequently, the thermal aging factor AF in the equation
(5) is attained by measuring the performance of degradation
and the service time. By use of the logarithm of a thermal
4 10
4
aging factor, a linear relationship between this logarithm
and its corresponding Kelvin- or Celsius temperature is
derived. For every variable of performance, the thermal
aging factor AF is displayed in Figures 13 to 24, with
temperature. As depicted in these figures, a statistical
expression proposes that a linear relationship between the
0 logarithm of a thermal aging factor and the reciprocal
0 3000 6000
absolute temperature may be used. Therefore, the life model
Service time (day) of equation (2) or equation (3) with the coefficients T0 and 
can be identified by the probability plot in Figures 13–24.
Figure 10. Calculated (line) and measured insulation resistances 600 The least-squares technique provides an efficient estimator
(high, middle, low – ground) of transformer oil with service time. for all model parameters as shown in Tables 1 and 2.
1988 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Determination of the Thermal Aging Factor for Life Expectancy of 550 kV Transformers

TDCG Acidity
0 -6.8
0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036
0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036
Ln(ageing rate)

Ln(ageing rate)
-7.2
-3
-7.6

-6
-8

-9 -8.4
Temperature [1/K] Temperature [1/K]
Figure 13. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of total dissolved
combustible gas (TDCG) concentration with temperature for 550 kV Figure 16. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of acidity with
transformers. temperature for 550 kV transformers.

Hydrocarbon Humidity
0 0
0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036
Ln(ageing rate)

Ln(ageing rate)
-2
-2

-4
-4

-6
Temperatur [1/K] -6
Temperature [1/K]

Figure 14. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of hydrocarbon

concentration with temperature for 550 kV transformers. Figure 17. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of water content
with temperature for 550 kV transformers.

CO2
0 Interfacial tension
0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036 -9.6
0.003 0.0035 0.004
Ln(ageing rate)

Ln(ageing rate)

-3

-9.8
-6

-9 -10
Temperature [1/K] Temperature [1/K]

Figure 15. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of CO2 Figure 18. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of interfacial
concentration with temperature for 550 kV transformers. tension with temperature for 550 kV transformers.
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 20, No. 6; December 2013 1989

Withstand voltage Insulation resistance 60 (hm-lg)

0 0
0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0036 0 10 20 30 40

Ln(ageing rate)
Ln(ageing rate)

-4 -3

-6
-8

-9
-12 Temperature [°C]
Temperature [1/K]

Figure 22. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of insulation

Figure 19. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of withstand resistance 60 (high, middle – low, ground) with temperature for 550 kV
voltage with temperature for 550 kV transformers. transformers.

Power factor Insulation resistance 600 (hml-g)

0
0
0 10 20 30
0 10 20 30 40
Ln(ageing rate)

Ln(ageing rate)
-4 -4

-8 -8

-12
-12
Temperature [°C]
Temperature [°C]

Figure 23. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of insulation

Figure 20. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of power factor resistance 600 (high, middle, low - ground) with temperature for 550 kV
with temperature for 550 kV transformers. transformers.

Insulation resistance 60 (hml-g) Insulation resistance 600 (hm-lg)

0 4
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Ln(ageing rate)
Ln(ageing rate)

3
-4
2

-8 1

0
-12 0 10 20 30 40
Temperature [°C] Temperature [°C]

Figure 21. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of insulation Figure 24. Measured and simulated (line) ageing rate of insulation
resistance 60 (high, middle, low - ground) with temperature for 550 kV resistance 600 (high, middle - low, ground) with temperature for 550 kV
transformers. transformers.
1990 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Determination of the Thermal Aging Factor for Life Expectancy of 550 kV Transformers
Table 1. Determination of Degradation Parameter for 550 kV molecules may break, resulting in the formation of new
Transformers.
molecules. As depicted in Figures 13–24, the results indicate
Parameter  x R0 (1/day) the dependence of the thermal aging factor on temperature.
TDCG 0.8 0 ppm -1.0×10-3 Because the thermal aging factor increases with temperature,
Hydrocarbon 0.8 0 ppm -2.0×10-3 temperature is considered the cause of degradation that may
CO2 0.8 0 ppm -6.0×10-4 affect the change of chemical compositions and physical
Power factor 1.5 0% -2.0×10-4 properties. Figures 1, 3, 13 and 15 manifest the dependence
Water -0.5 4.5 ppm -7.0×10-4 of TDCG and CO2 on temperature. Due to the fact that some
2×10-3 substations encounter a surge load, thermal expansion
Acidity 1 -2.5×10-4
mgKOH/g increases the degradation of oil as shown in Figures 1 and 3.
IFT 12 40 mN/m 1.8×10-4 Figure 14 confirms that the total hydrocarbon exhibits little
Voltage -5 70 kV 1.8×10-5 thermal deterioration compared to other figures.
R600 (hml–g) 0.6 6×104 MΩ 1.8×10-4 In a preventive test, it is likely that a rather wide dispersion
R600 (hm–lg) 0.6 4×104 MΩ 1.8×10-4 of test results be found, as consequence of the thermal aging
R60 (hml–g) 0.6 2.5×104 MΩ 1.8×10-4 factor’s sensitivity to different ageing conditions. If more
R60 (hm–lg) 0.6 1.2×104 MΩ 1.8×10-4 than one ageing process runs at the same time, the logarithm
of a thermal aging factor against temperature may not fall on
Table 2. Determination of Aging Parameter for 550 kV Transformers a straight line. Another dispersion of results exists in the
testing method, which may heavily influence an operator’s
Parameter  T0
technique or judgment. For these reasons, it is emphatic that
TDCG e 5000 K test results be interpreted in a statistical manner with
Hydrocarbon e 0K sufficient duplicate tests.
CO2 e 2000 K
Humidity e 4000 K 5 CONCLUSION
Acidity e 2000 K In this paper, a new approach is developed to determine
IFT e 2000 K the thermal aging factor of a life model for 550 kV service-
Voltage e 1200 K aged transformers, by a preventive test. The method of
Power factor 1.5 10 °C analysis corresponds closely to actual power transformers
R600 (hml–g) 2.0 12 °C under any operating conditions.
R600 (hm–lg) 2.0 12 °C
R60 (hml–g) 1.3 15 °C The method can identify a mathematical form of the
R60 (hm–lg) thermal aging factor and determine the parameters of the
1.3 15 °C
life model. It is preferred to analyse data, rather than to rely
on the 8°C degree rule or a life test. It is clear that such a
A linear relationship between the logarithm of a thermal methodology is extremely valuable in assessing power
aging factor and its corresponding Kelvin- or Celsius transformer’s lifetime.
temperature has verified that the statistical expression closely
Use of a graphing method permits extrapolation of the
follows the exponential law (2) or (3). The relationship is
long-term life of a power transformer from short-time
additionally used as a basis for the thermal ageing factor (2)
experimentation with increased confidence.
or (3). In view of the fact that the scale used in Figures 13 –
24 is logarithmical, high temperature is proven to have more This method further demonstrates the dependence of
effect on ageing than low temperature. A comparison with TDCG and CO2 on temperature, where, contrastingly, total
the measurement data, which were taken under experimental hydrocarbon is independent of temperature.
conditions [1, 3, 13], [19-22], also verifies the accuracy of the
life model. It is demonstrated that several shape parameters ACKNOWLEDGMENT
for CO2, acidity, interfacial tension, water content, withstand The authors gratefully acknowledge assistance from East
voltage, power factor and insulation resistance are within the China Grid for supplying the statistical data and financing
range of experimental measurements. For other parameters, this project.
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Xiang Zhang received the B.Sc., M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in electrical
engineering from Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China, in 1989, 1992
and from the Aachen University of Technology, Germany, in 2002,
respectively. From 1992 to 1997 she was a research engineer at Xi’an High
Voltage Apparatus Research Institute, Xi’an, China. Currently she is a
research fellow on asset management of networks of the Schering-Institute
of High Voltage Technology at the University of Hanover, Germany. Her
main areas of interest include high voltage apparatus, gas discharge, arc
modeling and asset management of network.
Ernst Gockenbach (M’83–SM’88–F’01) received the Diploma and Ph.D.
degrees in electrical engineering from the Technical University of
Darmstadt, Germany, in 1974 and 1979, respectively. From 1979 to 1982
he worked at Siemens AG, Berlin, Germany. From 1982 to 1990, he
worked with E. Haefely AG, Basel, Switzerland. Since 1990, he is
professor and director of the Schering-Institute of High Voltage
Technology at the University of Hanover, Germany. He is member of
VDE and CIGRE, chairman of CIGRE Study Committee D1 Materials and
Emerging Technologies for Electrotechnology, and a member of national
and international Working Groups (IEC, IEEE) for Standardization of
High Voltage Test and Measuring Procedures.