FOR most in Pakistan, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s

move of revoking held Kashmir’s special status in the Indian

constitution came as a shock — even if his government’s manifesto
categorically stated his intent to do so. Shocking? Hardly.

In fact, the move has laid to rest any pretence that Modi recognises the need to
be a centrist prime minister and that his pandering to his right-wing RSS
support base is only a way to keep them in good humour. Everything about his
government’s demeanour over the past couple of weeks confirms the deep
ideological conviction that underpins his actions.

Sadly, the popular rebuttal that India’s democracy is robust enough to keep
the minorities from being jettisoned isn’t going to mean much now. Most of all
because Modi, perhaps more so than any of the new populist brand of leaders
around the world, has perfected the art of tying big business interests with an
exclusionary social and political agenda. His recent electoral campaign was a
picture-perfect illustration: despite poor economic performance, he
neutralised the Congress and others by sucking virtually all big business
money into his campaign and combined this with an over-the-top national
security discourse that targeted the Indian left, Pakistan, and everyone that
stood against the Hindu-right’s vision.

Fast forward a couple of months to his Kashmir move. So aggressive was the
manner in which it was executed that even the most sympathetic world
capitals and media outlets had to speak up. But as the minorities shuddered,
Corporate India watched millions of Indians come out in Modi’s support. If
you are a strongman on a mission to redefine the social fabric of your society,
the urge would be to do more.
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India’s direction leaves Pakistan with a dilemma.

India’s direction leaves Pakistan with a dilemma. First, because the situation
will get uglier. From everything I have studied about the new generation of
Kashmiri Muslims, they aren’t going to take it lying down. But India is also
unlikely to hold back in unleashing its power to prevent any popular uprising.
As news and evidence of excesses trickle out, the Pakistani government will
feel the heat from within the country to do something. The political opposition
is going to be all over the government if there is even a hint of pragmatism in
its posturing. Right-wing forces will use the polarisation to make things more
toxic. The push for the government would be to cover its bases by banking on
jingoism.
India will pounce, distracting attention from the internal Kashmir dynamic to
the Pakistani right’s toxicity. The terrorism lingo will be at the fore of Delhi’s
rhetoric. FATF, IMF, and others will be asked to take note.

Second, there is a real risk of a major Pakistan-India crisis in the current

situation. The LoC is already radioactive. If the Kashmir unrest gets out of
control, or if there are attacks, India is going to blame Pakistan. Given how
Modi spun Pulwama to convince his support base that his military actions had
worked and that he’d go further to harm Pakistan, he will feel the pressure to
act. Similar pressure, built up courtesy of his claims of conducting surgical
strikes against Pakistan after Uri, led him to launch air strikes during
Pulwama. The end result was that the Pulwama crisis escalated beyond what
Uri did.

Third, and most important, what we are witnessing isn’t about the Kashmir
issue only. Whatever one may say to critique what has happened there, you
can’t blame Modi and co for hiding where they want it all to end up. Nor have
they done so about where they’ll go next. For instance, a temple will be built
on the site of the Babri mosque regardless of the consequences. And much
more thereafter.

As this transpires, Pakistan will face an existential question about its position
on the Muslims across the border. Is standing up for them and presenting this
as a right based on our official interpretation of the two-nation theory going to
remain part of the policy ethos? Or are we prepared to consider it India’s
matter?

The issue strikes at the heart of the identity question we have been debating in
this country for as long as it’s been around. How this is handled in the current
context will have direct implications for our already polarised debate on
identity, the raison d’être of the state’s security institutions, and for how the
Indian Muslims — many of whom are directly impacted by the state of India-
Pakistan relations and Pakistan’s stance on their plight — will see Pakistan’s
role in the treatment New Delhi metes out to them. The issue will have to be
handled extremely delicately.

For someone who has long advocated a reorientation of Pakistan’s

relationship with India in the positive direction, Modi’s actions have been a
shut-up call for me. Depressing times these are — and things are sure to get
worse as Modi persists in targeting minorities, and destroying India’s social
fabric in the process.
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