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Market Overview
Italy 2018
www.pwc.com/it
2 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
1. untr r file 5
2. Residential rt a es 9
4. ransacti n rends 17
5.3 Italian ar et 40
6. ilan 45
6.1 Residential 50
7. R e 63
6.1 Residential 66
9. l ssar 90
10. ntacts 91
3
4 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
1.
Country
Profile
5
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Country Profile
Ital as rec ered fr Ital is t e c untr it e Italian ulati n is urin Ital recei ed
t e inancial crisis ut it is t e rd i est nu er f e ected t r t le al i i rants
r in sl l c ared t erni t sta s in t e in ainl due t
t er c ara le c untries i i rati n e s urces esti ate t e
nu er f ille al i i rants
It s e ected t r at an It is e ected t suffer fr at
a era e f er ear ulati n a ein as it
er t e ne t ears st de el ed nati ns Internati nal i rati n ill
e e in future ulati n
de ra ics f r Ital
6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
- 0.1% 10%
10%
00%
Annual population
19% 10%
r t 66%
14%
301.3 17%
205.9
fe c e fic e ce Middle East
Finance and insurance
Construction
Other services
ulati n ensit e le Information, communication
er s f land area c e f e fi
urce anal sis n Italian ati nal tatistical Institute I I and rld an data
Ital as a er i le el f Ital as a si ilar trend t Recent ears a e seen a e une l ent rate
u lic de t It ill re uire t e e er t e rec er in e rts ic in in Ital is
si nificant eff rt and annual rate f rice c an e a e een a e dri er f a e t e ur area states
litical ill t ac ie e nl as een l er Italian r t a era e f
dest reducti ns
ersistentl l in ati n e current acc unt It is r ected t re ain
uld a e it re difficult reac ed a ea f in a e er t e
t ac ie e t e dele era in ut t e sur lus ill f recast ri n
necessar narr er t e ediu
7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4%
2.1% 2.0%
2.1% 2.0%
2.1% 2.0%
2.1% 2.0% ne l ent rate
1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
1.3% 1.2%
1.3% 1.3% 1.3% t t tal la ur f rce
% 0.7% 0.7%
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
9
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Residential Mortgages
€ (millions)
30
f rt a es si ned t urc ase a use in as 24,70
€ 50,001 and €150,000 acc unt f r a rti n f re < = € 50,000 € 50,001 - € 100,000 € 100,001 - € 150,000 € 150,001 - € 200,000 > € 200,000
140 50 18%
40
12%
135
(thousands)
30
20 15%
130
128
10 9%
125 0 7%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
120 < = 30% 31-40% 41-50% 51-60% 61-70% 71-80% 81-90% >90%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1
2018 urce anal sis n data
10 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Italian aff rda ilit inde Italian Affordability Index urc ase a e at t e a era e rice f
re i n t e ar et
e affordability index is calculated e furt er a a fr er c n e s t e
Liguria 7.5% ased n t e f ll in aria les le el f ease r difficult f r an a era e
Italian fa il t urc ase a e
Lazio 7.7%
1. Interest rate ic re ects t e trend e rec er f dis sa le inc e ic
Tuscany 9.8% f a aila le credit and netar lic started in ained entu last ear
2. Housing prices ic e ress t e t t e end f t e dis sa le inc e
Campania 10.3%
situati n f t e usin ar et f t e a era e Italian use ld as ust
Sardinia 11.0%
3. Disposable income ic e resses er ic as a 1.4% increase
de el ed a c untr is and its erall c ared t t e re i us ear ints
Lombardy 12.1% le el f c etiti eness i er t an t e ini u end f and
n cl se t t e re crisis a i u le els
Aosta Valley 12.7%
n ff rda ilit Inde eans t at e i er fre uenc trend s s t at in
Italy 13.4% t e a era e Italian use ld is a le t t e earl nt s f t e aff rda ilit
urc ase a e at t e a era e rice f inde I s ed a furt er i r e ent
Marche 15.0%
t e ar et in arc t is ear t e inde t uc ed t e
Veneto 15.2% n ff rda ilit Inde eans t at t e alue f a alue tent f a int
a era e Italian use ld is n t a le t i er t an ece er f t e re i us ear
Emilia Romagna 15.2%
Apulia 15.9%
Umbria 16.2%
ff rda ilit inde f r Italian use lds use ld inc e and usin rices
Friuli V. G. 16.3%
inde ase
14% 135
Piedmont 16.4%
12% 130
120
Abruzzo 18.2% 8%
115
6%
Basilicata 18.3% 110
4%
105
Calabria 18.5%
2% 100
Molise 19.5% 0% 95
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
House Price Disposable Price
13
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Investments in Construction
0.5
-0.1
-1.0 -0.7
-3.1
-3.8 -3.8
-6.8
-7.6 -7.5
-9.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
15
16 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
4.
Transaction
Trends
17
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Transaction Trends
7% 37.6m 40%
2%
1% Stock 2013 30%
Residential 20%
Office
Retail
Industrial 10%
90% 0%
-10%
7% 38.1m -20%
2%
2% Stock 2017
-30%
Residential -40%
Office
Retail
Industrial
Var. % NNT - Residential Var. % NNT - Non Residential
89%
5% 445.8k
2%
2% NNT 2013
Residential
Office
Retail
Industrial
91%
5% 592.9k
2%
2% NNT 2017
Residential
Office
Retail
Industrial
91%
urce anal sis n Italian IR data
18 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
+80%
Var. 06vs96
-54%
Var. 13vs06
2006 Peak: 2017:
869k transactions 543k transactions
+35%
Var. 17vs13
267,970
13%
+ 5.0% Up to 50 sqm
Between 50 and 85 sqm
ar Between 85 and 115 sqm
Between 115 and 145 sqm
s 145 sqm and above
ar s ain cities
Palermo
2,809 NNT
+6.1%
16%
9% 7% 15% 9% 5% 8% 11% 10% 16%
8%
13% 14%
16%
24%
Palermo Turin Genoa 39% Florence Naples
22% 24%
38% 30%
46% 28%
34% 28%
28%
Up to 50 sqm
Between 50 and 85 sqm
Between 85 and 115 sqm
Between 115 and 145 sqm
145 sqm and above
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1-2018
8.3%
7.3% 6.5%
6.1%
4.9% 5.0%
3.7% 3.0% 3.5%
0.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8%
-15.4%
-25.8%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
Lower
over 30% 20 to 30% 10 to 20% 5 to 10% less Equal or higher Average Months occurring from
than 5% discount the put up for sale to the
purchase date
Geographic distribution
North West 1.0% 8.6% 33.1% 36.9% 15.9% 4.7% 10.6% 7.0
r an areas 6.3
n t r an areas 7.8
North East 2.2% 3.4% 23.2% 48.3% 19.3% 3.7% 9.2% 7.8
r an areas 6.4
n t r an areas 8.1
Center 3.2% 5.4% 39.4% 34.7% 10.9% 6.6% 11.3% 7.4
r an areas 6.4
n t r an areas 8.3
South and Islands 2.1% 9.3% 24.6% 43.9% 12.0& 8.1% 10.4% 7.4
r an areas 6.6
n t r an areas 7.7
H1 2018 2.0% 6.8% 31.2% 40.0% 14.7% 5.5% 10.4% 7.3
2017 7.5
2016 8.7
23
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
ar s area
70%
50%
30%
10%
-10%
-30%
-50%
27
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
12,000
4%
10%
10,000 + 35%
- 25% CAGR
CAGR 17vs12
12vs07
8,000
11%
39%
6,000 2017
4,000
14%
2,000
22%
2006 2007 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H1 H2
Office c
e
In est ents trend asset class O e e
5000
6%
4000
13%
33%
3000
2000
H1-2018
16%
1000
1%
0 31%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1-2018
e ta le re rted erein s s f r eac asset class t e top transactions in ter s f alue since t
- 40%
23%
Office ri e
R e
65% 3.9% ar
s
Office ri e
312 €/sqm/y
ilan
3.4%
Milan Rome Other markets
R e era e
ri e Rent
In est ent trend
5,000
570 €/sqm/y
+ 42%
4,000
CAGR ilan era e
17vs12
ri e Rent
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
800.000
+ 85%
CAGR 17vs15
400.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019/20
300k sqm
ected f ne
de el ents in
Retail sector H1 2018 - Investments urin t e sec nd uarter entr Retail in est ents t l
icilia all as s ld f r a alue
In re t an €2.41bn ere in ested ar und and a a s i 5%
in t e retail sect r des ite ein l er st re in t e center f ari f r circa 8%
t an t e rec rd result f In est ents are sl in d n 1%
e er in est ents ere c ared t t e re i us ears ainl
i er t an t e ear a era e due t t e ne ati e erce ti n f an
In H1 2018 retail in est ents decreased f rei n in est rs ainl ericans 19%
c ared t t e sa e eri d f t e ecause f ne ati e e eriences in
re i us ear fr n in t e first alf t eir n d estic ar ets rei n 66%
of 2017 to €1.0bn due artl t ca ital re ain d inant in t e retail
dela s in t e c nclusi n f s e deals asset class In additi n t t e t reat
cl se t an a ree ent re resented nline sales and
ere c ntinues t e str n interest in litical uncertaint in s e ar ets
in centers ic acc unted f r suc as ilan t ere is als t e future
f t e retail lu e f r t e first alf c etiti n f de el ents in i eline Shopping center
High Street
with circa €670m f ll ed i street ic as a ne ati e effect n t e
FOC
ic acc unted f r it f erce ti n f in est rs Supermarket
in est ents en it t ese ne ati e si ns in t e Retail park
One f t e st si nificant deals f r last uarter se eral dela ed deals a e
t es in centers se ent as t e een cl sed and t e ar et see s t
ac uisiti n f a rtf li includin f ur a e started a ain e utl f rt e
s in centers f r a t tal alue f t ird uarter and f r t e rest f t e ear
ar und re ains siti e
2500
€2.4bn
2000
tal In est ents
1500 in 2017
€1.0bn
1000
500
800 7,00%
0 4,00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
56 €/sqm/y €544m
ri e Rent tal In est ents
ilan and R e area in H1 2018
urce anal sis
33
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
1400
1200
1000
+ 37%
CAGR
17vs14
5.5%
800 ilan ease c ntract
600
416
net ield
400
200
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
60
200
€ 178
ADR - RevPAR
€ 169 50
150 € 139 € 144
40
€ 119
100 € 102 € 98 30
20
50
10
0
Venice Rome Florence Milan 0
ADR (€) RevPAR (€) Occupancy (%) urce anal sis
34 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Bednights (thousands)
268m bednights in 2017 e data f r 46% 48% 50% 50% 49% 49%
180
c nfir and c ns lidate t e r t rec rded 2,0
2.4
UK
2% USA
2% 51% France
3%
Switzerland
en t 4%
Austria
f sta 4% China
4% Other
12%
4.0
50,000 4,0
3.6
45,000
3.1
40,000 3.0
39% 3,0
2.7 2.6
35,000 2.5 2.4 2.5 47% 2.5
2.4
2.2
Average length of stay (days)
30,000
Bednights (thousands)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dec
Italian International Avg. Length of stay
Nursing Home sector ic are acti e it s eciali ed funds The nursing home sector represent circa
and acc unt f r nearl ft e 5-6% of the total volume of transaction in
Italy, around €500m e sect r er t e eri d
Ital is e ind ur e t f r t e ffer Italian nursin e in est ents et een and acc unted f r n a e
f s eciali ed structures and f r t e t tal In Ital t ere are 13.6m people aged ra e f er ear ile et een and
in est ents in t is s ecific sect r 65 and over, representing 22% of the r se n an a era e f
e erall sect r suffers fr a lac f total population In t e ne t fe ears
su l and ne de el ents in c ntrast a c ntinu us r t f f t is a e
it t e str n re uest f eds t r u
t e Italian territ r e Italian nursin
ut r u is esti ated reaching around
18m in 2035 and representing 30% of 13.6m
e ffer is ainl c aracteri ed s all the entire population in Italy.
structures e leadin areas it a str n e and er a e r u is e ected
ulati n
structured ffer are t e etr litan areas t reac a ut illi n e le in in Ital
f ilan and urin re t an
e ain la ers n t e ar et are e ur ean c issi n identifies
s eciali ed in est ent funds
c ncentrated in
ic are
ard and ied nt
a standard f
in a itants er
eds er
ears as standard
18.1m
ile t e s ut suffer due t a lac f ara eter f nursin and residential ulati n
su l ard and ied nt attract care facilities ffer ile in Ital t e ffer in Ital
ca ital due t a c ncentrati n f an a in is l er a r i atel eds er
ulati n in t e area su rtin de and t usand in a itants er ears
f r nursin es r u ut t e Italian territ ries t ere
e ain in est rs currentl eratin in is a reat i alance it a str n
t e ar et are Rea r In estire r c ncentrati n f eds in t e n rt ern art
reest nes a ital and ri nial R I f Ital and lac in su l in t e s ut
40
35
30
25
(millions)
20
15
10
0
15 - 64 > 64 > 79
100k
>200 beds
Netherlands 6%
Internati nal
Germany 9%
students in Ital
100-200 beds
France 11%
UK 34%
Italy 3% 0 20 40 60
500
400
300
200
100
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
39
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
ad l ans securiti ati n c leted 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
and t e n ad l ans rtf li
Bad Loans (€ bn) Unlikely to Pay (€ bn) Past Due (€ bn) Gross Bad Loans / Loans to Customer (%)
s ld t Intru Intesa an a l al n
it sta e f t eir ca ti e r ut
latf r ii t er si nificant securiti ati ns
ac ed as t e dis sal f n
et ad ans rend
n n ad l ans rtf li s
dele era ed res ecti el anc I 67.1
62 64
60
t t e r ss ad ans lu e 47
43
stands at n dr in f n durin 39
t e first si nt s f nli el t a 24
2.8 3.5 3.8 5.0 5.4 5.7 5.6 4.3 2.8
1.4 2.3
and ast ue s s t e sa e declinin
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
trend it res ecti el n fr n
at and n t e sa e lu e f Net Bad Loans (€ bn) Net Bad Loans / Loans to Customer (%) Bad Loans coverage ratio (%)
e lu e f net ad ans f ll st e
sa e decreasin trend at is e ual
t n n at e ad ans
c era e rati increased t fr
at
urce e Italian ar et
40 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
r ss ad ans re i n
14.2%
13.3% 50%
47% 48% 49%
45%
9.3% 42%
38% 38% 39%
36% 36%
11.2%
12.8%
13%
15.4%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
>14-16% 13.5%
>12%-14%
<12%
unter art
1.7%
Ratio
1.5%
22.5% 8.5% Corporate & SME 65%
6.2%
10.2%
2% Consumer 24%
3%
8%
2.1% Family business 8%
2.6%
10.6%
Other** 2%
4.8%
6.6%
2.1%
1.9%
ni ue ercenta e f r
sta alle and ied nt
>10% 5.6% ru and lise
>5-10% ulia and asilicata
>3%-5% Ot er includes and financial instituti ns
<3%
urce e Italian ar et
41
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
rea d n f r ss ad ans n t re i n
4% 2.4% Breakdown
Real Estate and
6% Construction: 35% 1.1%
23% 26.3% 8.5%
9% 4%
9.6%
3.6%
2.8%
7.9%
15%
12% 1.7%
1.8%
14%
6% 3.6%
31%
1.6%
Construction 0.9%
Real Estate
>10%
Manufacturing products >5-10%
Wholesale and retail trade >3%-5% 4.2%
Professional services <3%
Industrial
Other
Ratio
5%
3.7%
9%
6.6% 8.5%
3.5%
30% 6.3%
17%
9.6%
7.2%
6.9%
7.5%
6.1%
8%
18%
5.5% ni ue ercenta e f r
26% 7.6%
sta alle and
6.4% ied nt
ru and lise
5% ulia and asilicata
Less than €75k
€75k to 250k >9%
€250k to 1m >7-9%
€1m to 5m >5%-7% 6.7%
<5%
More than €5m
urce e Italian ar et
42 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Q1 2017 27.5%
In t e first t ree nt s f t e decrease
Q1 2018
f Italian c anies an ru tcies and luntar
arran e ents ent n ile an increase as
3.4% 4.8%
re rted f r f rced and luntar li uidati ns
t e latter t e f r cedure ainl due t t e -0.2%
-4.6%
i cl sure nu er f r d r ant c anies
ic re resent Italian c anies re istered ut -16.0%
n t eratin
urin t e first uarter f t ere as a
-35.3%
dr in an ru tcies it res ect t t e re i us -40.1%
ear cusin n n n an ru tc r ceedin s Bankruptcies Voluntary arrangements Forced liquidations Voluntary liquidations
t e st si nificant reducti luntar
arran e ents nc rdati re enti i te luntar arran e ent nc rdat re enti e
includin restructurin as een ser ed f r rced li uidati n i uida i ne c atta a inistrati a
usiness cl sures after lans in acc rdance it
re i us ear s trend c ntrast f rced and
luntar li uidati ns re rted s all increases an ru tcies ec n ic sect r
res ecti el e ual t and it Q1 2017
res ect t Q1 2018
e reducti n in t e nu er f an ru tcies
is al st e uall distri uted a n different
ec n ic sect rs e ce t f r ser ices
-1.3%
c anies In t e c nstructi n industrial and -7.3%
-8.6% -7.8% -9.3%
ser ices sect rs t e decline in an ru tcies is in
-17.2% -15.8%
line it t e re i us ear s trend e er t e -21.0%
a nitude f annual ercenta e c an es as Construction Industrial Services Other
re t an al ed n a era e it res ect t t e
re i us ear
urin t e nu er f luntar
li uidati ns increased a ain acc rdin t luntar li uidati ns le al status
esti ates re t an Italian c anies n t 31.0%
Q1 2017
under in an ins l enc r ceedin s ent int
Q1 2018
li uidati n e increase is ainl 17.4%
caused t e cl sure f se eral d r ant
c anies ereas t e incidence 2.7%
0.1%
f luntar li uidati ns f r c r rati ns and -0.7%
-3.4%
artners i s as een er dest
Corporations Dormant companies* Partnerships
urce e Italian ar et
43
44 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
6.
Milan
45
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Milan
Cities of opportunity
Stockholm 7
e f ll in is a su ar f ities f O rtunit
re rt ade in ic t e erf r ance f
Moscow 22
leadin cities t r u ec n ic de ra ic and
data c rrelati n lenses ere anal sed r idin
insi t n at s r in n and at directi ns la
a ead e anal sis c nsiders aria les su di ided
Amsterdam 5 Berlin 12
int indicat r cate ries and t er ec n ic and London 1
de ra ic indicat rs e indicat rs are se arated
int t ree distinct r u s
Paris 4
ls f r a c an in rld Milan 18
e first rin s t et er t e t ree
indicat rs t at est easure t se
t ls intellectual ca ital and inn ati n
tec n l readiness and cit ate a Madrid 16
t at a cit increasin l needs in a l all
inte rated n led e ased rld
High
ualit f ife ac cit s sc re is t e su f its ran in s
Medium acr ss aria les e rder f t e cities ran e
e sec nd r u assesses ur anites
Low fr u t t e i est
ualit f life t r u f ur indicat rs
trans rtati n and infrastructure ealt
safet and securit sustaina ilit and t e
natural en ir n ent and de ra ics
and li ea ilit
c n ics
e t ird easures cities ec n ic
tenc t r u t e t ree indicat rs f
ec n ic cl ut ease f d in usiness
and c st
u f r talent u an ca ital
it its uni ersities and internati nal sc ls
acc untin f r re t an f t e Italian uni ersit
ulati n ilan area stands ut f r t e ualit f its
u an ca ital and educati n s ste at all le els l all
ren ned acade ic instituti ns and distin uis ed fas i n
desi n institutes are ased ere
49
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Residential
O er t e eri d t e a era e
Number of Normalized Transactions of 780,000 106%
residential in Milan is 20,082 transactions
per year.
760,000 102%
urin t e anal ed eri d t e trend as
een c aracteri ed a eneral rec er
795,537
er t e last f ur ears it t e nu er f 740,000 98%
23,707 700,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
90%
s
15,000 60%
23,707
+ 61.9% 10,000 40%
5,000 20%
NNT
s 0 0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8% 11% 6%
19%
9% 2%
3%
14% 12%
6%
21%
5%
26%
43% 15%
Up to 50 sqm Centre
50 - 85 sqm Inner city
85 - 115 sqm Semi center East Side
115 - 145 sqm Semi center North Side
> 145 sqm Semi center West Side
Semi center South Side
Periphery East Side
Periphery North Side
Periphery West Side
Periphery South Side
urce anal sis n Italian IR data
50 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
1,000
0
Centre Inner city Semi center Semi center Milan Semi center Semi center Periphery Periphery Periphery Periphery
West Side East Side North Side South Side East Side North Side West Side South Side
+ 2.8% de and f r ne es
In the first half of 2018, 12,170 transactions were recorded, which was an increase of
2.8% compared to H1 2017.
NNT s f t ere are real estate de el ents under a f r t tal f units
s f ic a e alread een s ld sales are i er c ared t
it re ardin residences alread n t e ar et and t e re ainin f r ne
r duct intr duced in t e last nt s e areas it t e reatest increase in sales
+ 58.5% are in t e se i center and t e center
and ides read as n ne f t e icr
ared t sales are
nes as a sales ercenta e a
re
e
ene us
NNT
s rend f alf ear are
di ensi nal class
+ 11.1%
25,000
7%
21%
NNT 20,000 9%
11,864
s
15,000
21%
10,000
12,170
42%
11,843
5,000
0 Up to 50 sqm
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50 - 85 sqm
85 - 115 sqm
H1 H2 115 - 145 sqm
> 145 sqm
urce anal sis n Italian IR data
51
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
2.137.224
1,500.000
102%
er t e last f ur ears it t e nu er f
transacti ns in +28.5% above 2013. 1,300.000
98%
1,100.000
56,310
94%
900,000
700,000 90%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NNT
2017 Stock Trend Stock
rend f
+ 6.15% 80,000
70,000
120%
NNT + 6.9%
100%
60,000
s CAGR 17vs12
80%
50,000
+ 48.50%
40,000 60%
56,310
30,000
40%
NNT 20,000
s 10,000
20%
0 0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
9% 13% 8% 9%
6%
10%
16%
26%
42%
52% 10%
rend f se ester
60,000
50,000
28,419
40,000
30,000
20,000
27,891
29,422
10,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
H1 H2
urce anal sis n Italian IR data
53
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Investment Trends
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real estate Italian funds Open-end funds (German and foreign) Real Estate companies and REITs
Assurance companies and Pension funds Private companies and investors Others*
Office sector
In est rs
€780m
tal In est ents
in H1 2018
41%
11.2% 59%
acanc rate
in H1 2018
59% Domestic
Foreign
are f f rei n
in est rs in
e a e u in H1 2018 reac ed nearl 190k sqm d n rta u a and entre in a ran e et een and
c ared t t e sa e alf f urin t e e ain a unt f s ace t at is difficult t let is due t
sec nd uarter f ta e u f ffice s ace in ilan t e r ert features n t c rres ndin t t e t e f
as circa s u c ared t t e re i us assets currentl re uested tenants In e er area f t e
uarter and a ainst t e sa e eri d f cit rade uildin s c ntinue t e t e ain c ice f
a e u re istered in t e last t ears is al st d u le tenants In ilan t e t tal a aila ilit f Grade A spaces
t e a era e lu es rec rded in t e eri d fr and is 25% f t e t tal e ual t s f ic s
circa s l cated in t and entre
Offices et een and s ere t e st re uested acant s aces in ilan are ainl f rade ft e
ccu iers and acc unted f r f ta e u in line f t tal a aila le s aces and and are c ncentrated
t e a era e rec rded in t e last ten ear e en if t ere are in t e eri er and interland areas In ilan ne rade
si nificant transacti ns e ceedin s de el ents are ra idl re let ef re c nstructi n
e ain features dri in t e tenants decisi ns durin c ntinuin t e s rta e in a aila ilit f ualit uildin s
t e last fe nt s are still t e ualit f real estate enants are inclined t e t ards t e entre and t
r erties and t e i le entati n f s art r in leadin t an increase f l er ualit uildin s it in
licies t eref re a re uest fr t e ners t a e t e eri er and interland is lac f su l f ualit
increasin l e i le s aces e first art f t e ear as assets is increasin l enc ura in de el ers t underta e
een als featured rele ant rental a ree ents si ned r ects f r t e refur is ent f t e e istin st c
it aut ti e c an educati n sect r c nsultin In June 2018, despite any completion in the last
anufacturin ener financial and i tec tenants quarter, there are 270k sqm of office space under
In t e vacant office space in t e cit f ilan construction and expected to be completed by the end
reac ed s In t e central area f ffice of 2020 Of t ese refer t r ects f a s eculati e
su l is acant ile in eri er and in nature In s f ne ffice s ace rade
interland ilan s a era e acanc rate is at ere deli ered ile refur is ents are increasin in
sli tl el t e first uarter f t e ear e ri e l cati n ic el t raise t e ualit f rade
acanc rate re ains articularl l in u r erties n ffer
a e u trend s u l rade
H1 2018
1.35m sqm
2017
25%
2016 31%
- 7.1%
2012
2011
2010 44% r t ta e u
2009 s
2008 Grade A
Grande B
2007
2006
Grade C
2-4%
2005 acanc rate in u
0. 200.000. 400.000. rta u a and entre
3
e a rit as n t et een let 5
1
75% 2
3
6 Santa Giulia
area
Available
Pre-let 2
End user
Simbiosys* 2
Milanosesto 3
Gioia 22 5
Libeskind tower* 7
Via M. Gioia/Sassetti 8
Unipol tower** 9
ED.G.E 11
In progress
Unipol Rasoio ** 14
Project
0. 50.000. 100.000.
re let nd user
urce anal sis
58 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Rents Overview
r t e anal sis f rental a ree ents e er es t at t e
a era e ri e rent f r is s ic is e ilan ar et is r in t e er attracti e f r in est rs
sli tl i er t an t e alue re istered durin t e re i us and is und u tedl t e nu er ne ar et in Ital in ter s f
uarters s lu es and nu er f deals it re ard t c re in est rs
a r t in t e nu er f d estic in est rs as een
Rent €/sqm/y Growth % rec rded ile t e st acti e alue add in est rs are nce
Milan Average 1 year 5 years a ain ri ate e uit initiati es
Rent (CAGR)
ri e rent f r ffice in t e is r in in
570 unted t s
entre ut f 430 n/a
e i entre 320 rend f ri e rents s
eri er 240
Q2 2018 570
interland 220 n/a
Average 356 Q1 2018
Q4 2017
Q3 2017
ields
Q2 2017
nsiderin t e ar et rents t e ri e net ields are
su stantiall ali ned t e ri e ield in t e f ilan is Q1 2017
Q3 2016
Milan Q2 2018 Q1 2018 Q4 2017
Q2 2016
Q1 2016
entre ut f
Q4 2015
e i entre
Q3 2015
eri er
Q2 2015
interland
Q1 2015
Average 4,55%
Q4 2014
356 €/sqm/y
Q3 2014
Q2 2014
era e ri e Q1 2014
Q4 2013
Rent
Q3 2013
Q2 2013
4.55% Q1 2013
Q4 2012
era e ri e Q4 2011
et ield Q4 2010
Q4 2009
570 €/sqm/y
Q4 2008
Q4 2007
Q4 2006
ri e Rent Q4 2005
Q4 2004
Q4 2003
194k sqm
Q4 2002
Q4 2001
a e in Q4 2000
Hotel sector
Opportunities
71%
de el ents t r u ut ilan endlease ust nt e
u lic id t rede el t e area t at eld t e O
e r ect en isi ns a er anent u it a ne s ital
internati nal researc facilit and uni ersit ca us i ed 2017
it ne usin student acc dati ns usiness retail Occupancy
and a i rant u lic real a in it ne f t e lar est real
estate de el ents in ur e
ilan as attracted internati nal and nati nal c ains in recent
ears stl in t e and star cate ries
7m
2017 Total
2018 and 2019 forecast
rri als
13m
e rec er f t e Italian ec n is e ected t c ntinue
in and it real f recasted t r at
in and in
a es in t t e u lic and ri ate sect r are e ected t 2017 Total
increase al n it e l ent ic ill t dri e ri ate O erni t sta s
c nsu ti n and su rt r t
e le ac f t e O ne lar e scale de el ents an
e andin ec n internati nal e ents and increasin
leisure de and are all e ected t c ntri ute t t e c ntinued
€192m
r t f t e ilan ar et it Re R f recasted t tal In est ents
increase at and in and res ecti el
in 2017
urce anal sis
60 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
61
62 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
7.
Rome
63
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Rome
65
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Residential
transacti n lu e as seen in
1,428,028
f ll ed a eneral rec er er t e 1,300,000 100%
f ll in f ur ears it fi ures
increasin er
1,250,000 95%
31,131 1,200,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
90%
2017
rend f
100%
NNT 40,000
+ 3.9%
s CAGR 17vs12 77% 80%
30,000
60%
+ 30.70% 20,000
31,131
40%
NNT 10,000
20%
s
0 0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
era e urc ase rice s are area are di ensi nal class
Rome -2.8% -15.0% Fuori GRA Nord - Ovest 1.4%
Fuori GRA Nord - Ovest -5.8% -20.2% 9% 9%
Fuori GRA Sud 1.0%
Fuori GRA Sud -6.0% -23.0% Fuori GRA Ovest 2.5%
Fuori GRA Ovest -3.7% -13.0% 12%
Fuori GRA Nord 1.3%
Fuori GRA Nord -5.5% -15.0% Fuori GRA Est 8.1%
Fuori GRA Est -6.2% -19.8% Tiburtina 4.1%
Tiburtina -2.6% -11.3% Salaria 8.1%
Salaria -2.6% -17.1% Portuense 5.3% 41%
Portuense -4.5% -15.6% EUR - Laurentina 4.2%
EUR - Laurentina -3.5% -19.2% Cintura EUR 3.1% 27%
Cintura EUR -0.5% -18.6% Cassia - Flaminia 3.3%
Cassia - Flaminia -5.0% -18.4% Casilina - Prenestina 8.6%
Casilina - Prenestina -2.2% -24.7% Aurelia 5.4%
Aurelia -3.1% -17.8% Asse Colombo - Ostiense - Litorale 7.7%
Asse Colombo - Ostiense - Litorale -1.5% -12.3% Appia - Tuscolana 5.2% Up to 50 sqm
Appia - Tuscolana -4.1% -17.6% 50 - 85 sqm
SC Salaria - Trieste - Nomentana 4.8%
85 - 115 sqm
SC Salaria - Trieste - Nomentana -2.2% -13.2% SC Prati - Trionfale 3.8% 115 - 145 sqm
SC Prati - Trionfale -6.0% -17.8% SC Parioli - Flaminio 1.7% > 145 sqm
SC Parioli - Flaminio -2.4% -8.5% SC Ostiense - Navigatori 4.1%
SC Ostiense - Navigatori +0.6% -7.5% SC Aurelia - Gianicolese 5.1%
SC Aurelia - Gianicolese -1.0% -12.0% SC Appia - Tuscolana 4.5%
SC Appia - Tuscolana -1.2% -14.4% Centro Storico 3.8%
Centro Storico -0.5% -10.8%
15,612
ar et in Ital f r nu er f residential transacti ns it the first half of 2018 recording
15,600 residential transactions, which, however, have suffered a slight decrease
of -1.3% vs H1 2017. This slight decrease could be due to the high volume of
NNT transactions recorded in 2017 (circa 31,000).
H1 2018 r all f t e reatest increase f residential transacti ns ere f r r erties it
less t an s it a t tal f circa transacti ns f ll ed r erties
et een s it a t tal f transacti ns and al ne re resentin
- 1.3% re resent
f R an residential transacti ns ransacti ns f r r erties et een
f t e t tal and re er e a era e a art ent si e
NNT in R e is s ile t e a era e is s in t e t er ei t ain Italian cities
and s in eneral t r u ut Ital e real estate ar et in R e is di ided int
s different nes it str n identities ic attract s ecific de and tar ets It s een
se eral ears t at t e ist ric centre is aitin f r i r e ents ic uld create
+ 28.62%
de and fr Italian u ers f r t is area since t ere are ist rical uildin s it a i
arc itectural i rtance
NNT
rend f alf ear are
s di ensi nal class
35,000
9% 10%
NNT 25,000
15,317
s 20,000
40%
28%
15,000
10,000
15.612
Up to 50 sqm
15,814
50 - 85 sqm
5,000 85 - 115 sqm
115 - 145 sqm
> 145 sqm
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
H1 H2
2.218.967
transacti n lu e as seen in 105%
f ll ed a eneral rec er er t e 1,600.000
100%
f ll in f ur ears it fi ures
increasin er 1,400.000
95%
1,200.000 90%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
45,447 rend f
80,000 120%
NNT
70,000
2017 100%
60,000
+ 3.4%
CAGR 17vs12 80%
+ 2.44%
50,000 70%
40,000 60%
NNT 30,000
40%
s
45.447
20,000
20%
10,000
+ 30.74% 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0
s
are area are di ensi nal class
Rome 68.5%
10% 9%
45,000
40,000
22.470
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
22.977
23.021
10,000
5,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
H1 H2
69
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Investment Trends
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real estate Italian funds Open-end funds (German and foreign) Real Estate companies and REITs
Assurance companies and Pension funds Private companies and investors Others*
Office sector
ne c leti n f s as re rted
in t e first uarter
220.60
200
€276m
tal In est ents 100
82.90
in H1 2018
12.5% 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 H1 2018
acanc rate
in H1 2018
cc lis ed and in r ress r ects s
21% 200
180
in est rs in 140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Existing In progress
Rents Overview
r t e anal sis f rental a ree ents e er es t at t e
a era e ri e rent f r is s ic is a e u in as s u c ared t
sli tl i er t an t e alue re istered durin t e re i us c ared t
uarters s e nu er f units a s r ed in t e first si nt s f t e
ear as ic as i er t an t e se i annual a era e
Rent €/smq/y Growth % f t e last fi e ears ar und deals er uarter a e u
Rome Average Rent 1 year 5 year (CAGR) in as s c nfir in t e siti e trend
420 c ared t re i us ear n and n
enter 350 n/a nl t an t e rec rd f
e i center 300 The volume of space absorbed in the first half of 2018
R 340 is higher by 16% compared to the same period of 2017.
eri er 150
Prime rents were stable in the CBD and in the EUR area
at 420 and 340 €/sqm/y respectively.
Average 312
e el ents in t e i eline are in a decreasin trend
it nearl s under c nstructi n ren ati n
ields c leti n e ected et een and In est ents
nsiderin t e ar et rents t e ri e net ields are in t e first alf f reac a lu e f a r i atel
su stantiall ali ned t e ri e ield in t e fR e is estic ca ital as red inant in ter s f alue
a ut and rises t in t e eri er acc untin f r f t tal in est ents des ite a sl
start s ed a rec er i in siti e e ectati ns
Rome Q2 2018 Q1 2018 Q4 2017
f r t e c in nt s In t is eri d t ere as a r in
interest in est rs it a rater r ensit f r ris f r
enter alue added and rtunistic r ducts
e i center
R
eri er
Average 5,50% 5,55% 5,85%
312 €/sqm/y
era e ri e
Rent
5.50%
era e ri e
et ield
420 €/sqm/y
ri e Rent
82,916 sqm
a e in
H1 2018
urce anal sis n ata
73
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Hotel sector
fter a eri d f declinin su l and de and as nit red 2016 145 101
R rec rded siti e results it an increase in t t e 2017 145 102
r su l and t e nu er f r s s ld 2018* 147 103
R e s tel transacti n ar et ainl c nsisted f 2019* 149 105
internati nal in est rs ac uirin tr lu ur assets in ri e
recast
l cati ns lt u t ere is still str n de and f r t ese t es
f assets recent transacti ns als included tels in t e and
star cate ries it ari us in est r r files de l in ca ital r t n re i us ear
In additi n t ere is str n de and f r c n ersi n rtunities
Occupancy ADR RevPAR
t ren ate ist rical uildin s int star tels in t e cit
2016
centre ic is c nfir ed t e urc ase f t e f r er
ead uarters in and t assets in In 2017
Opportunities
€137
era e
ue t t e lac f rtunities and i arriers t entr in
ail Rate R
t e cit centre in est ents re ardin c n ersi ns f ist rical
uildin s in ri e l cati ns are e ected t c ntinue int
70%
and
Internati nal and nati nal tel erat rs and in est rs
c ntinue t searc f r rtunities in enice R e ilan
and l rence it de and increasin f r seaside and t er 2017
seas nal t urist destinati ns as ell Occupancy
€110m
ill t dri e ri ate c nsu ti n and su rt r t
lt u R e is ne f t e leadin tel ar ets in ur e
erf r ance r t rec rded in as sta nant es eciall
en c ared t t er a r ar ets in Ital suc as enice tal In est ents f
ilan and l rence ic all sa su stantial increases in ic t c n ert in tel
Re R e tel ar et in R e is e ected t c ntinue t destinati n in
r e f recast Re R r t rates f and in
and ainl dri en an increase in R ic is cludes sc l rtf li transacti n
still el re crisis le els
75
76 | Italian Real Estate Market Overview
8.
International
trends
77
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
International trends
Real r t rate
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020*
90%
300.0
80%
70% 250.0
60%
200.0
50%
150.0
40%
30% 100.0
20%
50.0
10%
0% 0.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
S. Housing & Care Dev. Site Hotel Logistic / industrial
Residential Retail Office Grand Total
ar in est ents s
Increase
>40%
>20%
0-20%
Decrease
0 – 20%
<20%
Not available
6%
18% United Kingdom Office
6%
2%
27% Germany Retail
France 10% Residential
3% 40%
Netherlands Logistic/industrial
3%
3% Spain Hotel
4% Sweden Dev. Site
Poland 17% S. Housing & Care
9% 22% Italy
Other Europe
10% 19%
ar in est ents s
Increase
>20%
0 – 20%
Decrease
0 – 20%
<20%
Not available
ar ets in ur e n
16.0
14.0 H1 2017
H1 2018
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
r
ne
rf
on
rg
rid
ls
in
ris
on
ur
te
nn
ila
ge
rli
ic
sl
do
se
bl
a
ol
da
bu
Pa
og
sb
nd
ad
es
kf
O
un
Be
rd
M
Du
e
kh
ha
us
el
er
an
am
Vi
ch
Li
ol
Lo
tte
M
ss
oc
en
Br
st
C
Fr
an
H
Ro
Du
Am
St
op
M
ar in est ent s
Increase
>20%
0 – 20%
Decrease
0 – 20%
<20%
Not available
Oslo
Stockholm
Copenhagen
Hamburg
Manchester
Dublin Amsterdam Berlin
Rotterdam Dusseldorf
London Cologne
Paris Frankfurt
Munich
Vienna
Milan
Madrid
Lisbon
36%
32%
30%
26% 26%
20%
17% 17%
13%
11%
7%
3%
Student Hotel Co-working/ Retirement/ er iced ealtcare cial Co-living ata centers elf st ra e Other ne ein
housing e i le ffices assisted living apartments housing facilities c nsidered
O er n t tal ulati n
26%
18%
12%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ym
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op Net
ci
yc
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k
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ee
si
ea
af
Bu
Fr
C
Br
m
nnual ta e u f e i le s aces
210k
100,000
5%
50,000
a e u f e i le
s ace in 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0%
64
ities in ic r t f e r s s aces s
erates
1,200,000
197
1,000,000
800,000
u er f uildin s 600,000
ana ed 400,000
200,000
180k 0
Spaces (sqm)
2012 2014 2015 2017
u er
f e ers
r t f nu er f uildin s in t e net r
1.1m
urface 250
s 200
150
100
50
0
2012 2014 2015 2017
Buildings (#)
r t f an s re enues
1200 250%
200%
800
150%
100%
400
50%
0 0%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018
89
Italian
Country Residential In est ents ransacti n In est ent Internati nal
r file rt a es in nstructi n rends rends ilan R e trends l ssar ntacts
Glossary
NNT
e nu er f standardi ed real estate units s ld sales
f r ert ri ts are c unted ta in int acc unt t e
s are f r ert transferred ic eans t at if an unit
is s ld nl f r a rti n f r e a le t is uld n t
e c unted as ne ut as
Stock
e nu er f real estate assets included in t e land
re istr arc i es in a i en e ra ical area
II
e real estate ar et Intensit Inde rati et een
and t c
IRS
Internal Re enue er ice Real state ar et i isi n
INSI
Italian ati nal tatistical Institute
Contacts
antonio.martino@pwc.com
91
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