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Housing Market
Update
Monthly Sales and
Price Statistics
August 2019
overview
GDP 2.0%
2019-Q2
Unemployment 3.7%
August 2019
Consumption 4.7%
2019-Q2
Job Growth 1.4%
August 2019
Core CPI 2.4%
August 2019
4/1/2018
5/1/2018
Consumers confidence stumbled lately
6/1/2018
7/1/2018
8/1/2018
9/1/2018
10/1/2018
11/1/2018
12/1/2018
1/1/2019
2/1/2019
3/1/2019
4/1/2019
5/1/2019
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOURCE: University of Michigan
SERIES: Consumer Sentiment
6/1/2019
7/1/2019
5
page
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
1/1/1978
1/1/1979
1/1/1980
1/1/1981
1/1/1982
1/1/1983
1/1/1984
1/1/1985
1/1/1986
1/1/1987
1/1/1988
1/1/1989
1/1/1990
1/1/1991
1/1/1992
1/1/1993
1/1/1994
1/1/1995
1/1/1996
1/1/1997
1/1/1998
1/1/1999
But remains near all-time high
1/1/2000
1/1/2001
1/1/2002
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
U. Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index
1/1/2005
1/1/2006
1/1/2007
1/1/2008
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1/2013
1/1/2014
1/1/2015
1/1/2016
1/1/2017
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOURCE: University of Michigan
SERIES: Consumer Sentiment
1/1/2018
1/1/2019
6
page
Rates near historic lows
Key Interest Rates
18 6
15 5
12 4
9 3
6 2
3 1
0 0
YTY% Chg.
5%
3%
0%
2% -5%
1% -10%
May-16
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-17
May-18
May-19
Sep-17
0%
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Sep-17
4.5
4.0 2.0
3.5
3.0 1.5
2.5
2.0 1.0
1.5
1.0 0.5
0.5
0.0 0.0
1/1/19 2/1/19 3/1/19 4/1/19 5/1/19 6/1/19 7/1/19 8/1/19 9/1/19
Spread 10-Yr Treasury 30-Yr FRM
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
page
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® 12
Other red flags/headwinds
Do you think it’s a good time to buy a Do you think it’s a good time to sell a
home in California? home in California?
N=300 N=300
57% 56%
51% 50% 53% 51% 49% 52%
46% 48% 48% 45%
27% 25%
22% 21% 22% 25% 24% 22% 22% 26% 23% 23%
Nov-18
Apr-19
Apr-19
Dec-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Feb-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Sep-18
Mar-19
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Oct-18
Jul-19
Jul-19
Jan-19
Oct-18
May-19
May-19
SERIES: 2018/2019 Google Consumer Poll page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
15
Sales dip slightly from July,
but remain above 400k
700,000 California, August 2019 Sales: 406,100 Units, -4.1% YTD, 1.6% YTY
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
Jan-05
Sep-05
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Sep-17
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
16
A tale of two markets
S.F. Bay
Southern
Area
California
19%
46%
10%
YoY % chg.
0%
-3.8%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
20
So. California sales
fall back slightly
So CA 6 per. Mov. Avg. (So CA)
40%
30%
20%
YoY % chg.
10%
0% -0.4%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
May-17
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-18
May-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
21
Central Valley sales slowed after
solid increase in July
30% Central Valley 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Central Valley)
20%
10%
YoY % chg.
0%
-2.3%
-10%
-20%
-30%
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Jan-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
22
Pending sales still growing
10%
YTY % Chg. in Pending Sales
5% 4.4%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
2018 2019
Year-over-Year % Chg
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-8.9%
-20% Sep-16
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
May-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
May-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
May-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
May-18
Jul-18
Nov-18
May-19
Jul-19
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
SERIES: Active Listing of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
26
Supply improving at the upper end
August 2019
Active Listing
20%
10.8%
10%
4.5%
0%
-3.8%
-10%
-8.9%
-14.3% -12.8%
-20% -17.5%
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-05
Sep-05
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
SERIES: Median Time of Market of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
30
Up in most percentiles
100%
Sales-to-List Price Ratio
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
Jul-13
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
32
Mostly at top end of the market
Share of Listings with a Reduced Price: 41.0%; Median Reduction Amount: -4.3%
50% 0%
45% -1%
40% -2%
35% -3%
30% -4%
25% -5%
20% -6%
15% -7%
10% -8%
5% -9%
0% -10%
9/1/2013
5/1/2018
1/1/2010
5/1/2010
9/1/2010
1/1/2011
5/1/2011
9/1/2011
1/1/2012
5/1/2012
9/1/2012
1/1/2013
5/1/2013
1/1/2014
5/1/2014
9/1/2014
1/1/2015
5/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
5/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
5/1/2019
Share Reduced Median Reduction
SERIES: Listing Price of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
34
But pace of cuts has slowed
5/1/2018
1/1/2015
3/1/2015
5/1/2015
7/1/2015
9/1/2015
1/1/2016
5/1/2016
7/1/2016
9/1/2016
1/1/2017
3/1/2017
5/1/2017
7/1/2017
9/1/2017
1/1/2018
3/1/2018
7/1/2018
9/1/2018
1/1/2019
3/1/2019
5/1/2019
7/1/2019
11/1/2015
11/1/2016
11/1/2017
11/1/2018
Share Reduced Median Reduction
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Jan-05
Sep-05
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-09
Sep-09
Jan-11
Sep-11
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-19
May-06
May-08
May-10
May-12
May-14
May-16
May-18
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Condo/Townhomes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
39
Price/Square Foot slightly down
from last month and inched up from last year
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-16
Jan-19
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
SERIES: Median Price Per Square Feet of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
40
Don’t
Panic
Mortgage payment continued to drop
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10% -7.35%
Jan-16
Mar-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
Jul-19
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
Price Growth Mortgage Pmt Growth
SERIES: Price Growth vs. Mortgage Payment Growth page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
42
Listings prices suggest softening, not dropping
40%
Listing Price Sales Price
30%
YTY% Chg. in Price
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Jan-19
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
SERIES: Sales to List Ratio of Existing Single Family Homes page
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
43
Market Velocity
100%
150%
-150%
-100%
-50%
50%
0%
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Price Growth
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Market Velocity (6 month trailing average)
California market velocity suggests more growth
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
SERIES: Market Velocity & Price Growth
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
10%
20%
30%
50%
40%
-50%
-40%
-20%
-10%
-30%
44
80% 76.0%
Santa Monica
East Los Angeles
Glendale
Inglewood
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Bellflower
Alhambra
El Cajon
Florence-Graham
Oakland
Costa Mesa
Merced
Long Beach
Burbank
Arden-Arcade
Mountain View
Santa Barbara
El Monte
Pasadena
Santa Clara
57.3%
South Gate
Chico
Lynwood
Berkeley
Majority renter cities will surprise you
Anaheim
Alameda
Salinas
Santa Ana
Santa Cruz
2017 California Renter Rate by City
Davis
Madera
Sunnyvale
53.4%
Irvine
Tustin
San Diego
Fresno
Lodi
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
SERIES: Homeownership Rates
Sacramento
San Bernardino
Escondido
50.7%
47
page
~750k people have left since 2010
-20,000
-24,972
-40,000
-41,362
-60,000
-57,563 -60,839
-80,000
-100,000
-104,317 -105,210
-120,000
-140,000
-160,000
-163,922
-180,000 -169,336
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
page
48
NOT our “job creators”
The desire
•• Click for homeownership
to edit remains strong
Master text styles
• Second level
• First-time buyers face often insurmountable obstacles
• Third level
• Fourth level
• Government policies do not support housing as in the past
• Fifth level
29%
30%
27%
23%
Percent
20%
13%
10% 8%
0%
40%
40%
33%
30%
Percent
19%
20%
10%
4% 4%
0%
n: 1716
69%
60%
Percent
40%
31%
20%
0%
Are you aware of (FHA) backed loans that require only a 3.5% downpayment
n: 1716
Percent
72%
60%
40%
28%
20%
0%
Asian, 150,233
40% of Income
Other, 51,143
85% of Median Price
4.11% 30-yr FRM
3.5% Downpayment
1.38% Taxes/Insurance
1% Annual PMI Fee
White, 611,381
Not Qualified,
4,620,979
SoCal 669,509
Other 71,475