Lahore University of Management Sciences

MATH 230 – Probability

FALL 2019-2020
Instructor Shaheena Bashir
Room No. 9­151  
Office Hours Monday/Wednesday (11:00 am­12:00 noon or by appointment) 
Email shaheena.bashir@lums.edu.pk
Telephone  8535
Secretary/TA  Shazia Zafar & Noreen Sohail /  TBA 
TA Office  TBA
Hours
Course URL (if  https://lms.lums.edu.pk/portal
any)

Course Basics
Credit Hours 3
Lecture(s) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week 2 Duration 75min
Recitation/Lab (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week Duration
Tutorial (per week) Nbr of Lec(s) Per Week 1 Duration 75 min

Course Distribution
Core Core course for all SSE majors 
Elective
Open for Student  All students
Category
Close for Student  None
Category

COURSE DESCRIPTION
 
This is a first course in probability which provides basic concepts related to modelling of chance events in practical
life.   It  provides   preparation  for   further   courses   in stochastic   processes,   statistics,   statistical  mechanics   and   an
understanding of the probability concepts essential for students who want to pursue studies in physical sciences,
social   sciences,   economics,   and   engineering.   The   course   starts   with   an   introduction   of   probability   terms   and
methods   of   computing   simple   and   conditional   probabilities.   The   concepts   of   discrete   and   continuous   random
variables are covered. Special discrete and continuous probability distributions are explored with their real life
applications.

COURSE PREREQUISITE(S)


 MATH 101­Calculus I

 Lahore University of Management Sciences

COURSE OBJECTIVES

  Student will learn what probability is

 Learn different concepts of probability & different ways of expressing probability

 Learn how probability is helpful in quantification & modelling of everyday chance events to 
provide scientifically valid conclusions.

Learning Outcomes
Having successfully completed the course the students will be able to

 Explain the concepts of probability, including conditional probability

  Explain the concepts of random variable, probability distribution, distribution function, 
expected value, variance and higher moments, and calculate expected values and probabilities
associated with the distributions of random variables
 Define basic discrete and continuous distributions, be able to apply them
 Understand & apply Central Limit Theorem in different problems.
Grading Breakup and Policy
Assignment(s):
Home Work:
Quiz(s):  (Best 5 out of 7) 30%
Class Participation:
Attendance:
Midterm Examination:    30%
Project:
Final Examination:          40%

Examination Detail

Yes/No: Yes
Combine Separate: Separate
Midterm 
Duration: 75min
Exam
Preferred Date: 9:30 a.m – 11:15 a.m (October 28, 2019)
Exam Specifications: Closed book/Closed notes/ calculator allowed

Yes/No: Yes
Final  Combine Separate: Separate
Exam Duration: 150min
Exam Specifications: Closed book/Closed notes/calculator allowed

What you get out of the course depends on what you put into the course.
 Lahore University of Management Sciences
Quizzes

Quizzes will be held in the first 10 – 15 minutes of the class.
      The purpose of the quizzes is to assess your participation.
 Missed Quiz Policy: Missed quiz earn a mark of zero. No exceptions, no medical certificate or other 
documentation accepted.
 Best 5 out of 7 quizzes will be considered.

Term Test

Term test will be held in the lecture room on the specified date (i.e 9:30 a.m – 11:15 a.m (October 28, 2019). There is 
no extra time for late entrants.  

Tentative Lecture Schedule

Serial Week of Topic Textbook

Reference
1. 02­Sept Introduction of Randomness Chapter 1
Overview of Set Theory.

Basic Principles of Counting
2. 09­Sept Permutation, Combination, Multinomial Coefficients
3. 16­Sept Sample Space & Events    Chapter 2
Axioms of Probability
Probability of Events
4. 23­Sept Conditional Probability & Independence Chapter 3
Conditional Probability
Law of Total Probability; Bayes’s Theorem
Independent Events
5. 30­Sept Random Variables
Discrete Random Variables; Expected Value; Expectation of a function Chapter 4
of Random Variables; Variance
6. 07­Oct Bernoulli & Binomial Random Variable; Poisson Random Variable
7. 14­Oct Other Discrete Distributions.

8. 21­Oct Continuous Random Variable Chapter 5

Review for Mid­Term

9. 28­Oct Mid Term: 9:30 a.m – 11:15 a.m (October 28, 2019).
(Includes material covered till Section 4.8)
Uniform Random Variable
 Lahore University of Management Sciences
10. 04­Nov Normal Random Variables
11. 11­Nov Exponential Random Variables
12. 18­Nov Joint Distributions; Conditional Distributions; Discrete Case, Chapter 6
Continuous Case
13. 25­Nov Properties of Expectation Chapter 7
14. 02­Dec Limit Theorems. Chapter 8
Central Limit Theorem and applications
15. 09­Dec Review for Final Exam
16. Final EXAM

Textbook(s)/Supplementary Readings
Required Textbook:  
A First Course in Probability, 9th Edition, Sheldon Ross 
The required text will be supplemented with notes and exercises.

Additional References:
Introduction to Probability Models, 10th Edition, Sheldon Ross 
Probability for Dummies, 2006. Deborah Rumsey.