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SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT
E X E C U T I V E M B A
2017/18
AFE7031-A
Corporate
Finance
MBACFINT–SB–24–2018 AFE7031-A
Programme Administration
Contact: gp.mbadladministration@bradford.ac.uk
Module Leader
Xiaoxia Ye: X.Ye4@bradford.ac.uk
This Study Book may not be sold, hired out or reproduced in part or in
whole in any form or by any means whatsoever without the publisher’s
prior consent in writing.
2 Bradford MBA
Contents
Bradford MBA 3
Study Book: Corporate Finance
References 46
Unit 3: Company Valuation – Part 2 47
Introduction 48
Objectives 48
Valuing unquoted companies using alternative techniques 48
Net asset value (NAV) 49
Price: earnings multiples 51
Discounted cash flow (DCF) 53
Shareholder value analysis (SVA) 55
Summary 59
Additional learning resources 60
References 61
Unit 4: Investment Decisions 63
Introduction 63
Objectives 64
Investment decisions and appraisal methods 64
Investment appraisal techniques 65
‘Traditional’ or non-discounting methods 66
Discounting methods and discounted cash flow 67
Applications of project appraisal 71
Inflation 72
Allowing for taxation in DCF 75
Summary 78
Additional learning resources 79
References 80
Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk 81
Introduction 81
Objectives 81
Risk and uncertainty in project appraisal 82
Sensitivity analysis 85
Expected NPVs and probabilities 91
Describing risk 92
Summary 96
Additional learning resources 98
References 98
Unit 6: Financing Decisions 99
Introduction 99
4 Bradford MBA
Contents
Objectives 100
Financial planning 100
Working capital management 107
Sources of long-term finance 110
Summary 116
Additional learning resources 118
References 118
Unit 7: Required Return on Investment 119
Introduction 119
Objectives 120
Cost of debt 120
Cost of equity (return required by shareholders) 121
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) 124
Required rate of return when equity and debt are combined 127
Gearing and company value 128
Summary 131
Additional learning resources 134
References 135
Unit 8: Delivering Value 137
Introduction 137
Objectives 138
Total shareholder return (TSR) 138
Theories of dividend policy 140
Dividends as a residual or dividend irrelevance 140
Using external finance 142
Dividend relevance 144
Dividend policy: key determinants 147
Share buybacks 148
Summary 148
Additional learning resources 151
References 151
Unit 9: Revision 153
The main topics 153
Advice on assignment 155
Appendix A: Module Descriptor 157
Appendix B: Model Answers to Activities 161
Unit 1 161
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
Unit 2 166
Unit 3 169
Unit 4 171
Unit 5 173
Unit 6 175
Unit 7 179
Unit 8 185
6 Bradford MBA
Introduction to the Module
Bradford MBA 7
Study Book: Corporate Finance
More specifically, by the end of the module, you will be able to:
identify the role of the financial manager in the modern corporation
understand the determinants of company value
appreciate how the stock market operates, both as a primary and a
secondary market
understand how to value companies and appreciate the limitations of
valuation techniques
evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various investment
appraisal methods, and know when to apply them
incorporate both inflation and tax complications into project appraisal
distinguish between risk and uncertainty, and operate simple
procedures to allow for imperfect foresight
advise on different financial strategies
evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of different methods of
long-term finance
advise on suitable financing methods for companies in different
situations
identify the factors that determine the return required by shareholders
assess the appropriate cut-off rate for a company using a mixture of
forms of finance
determine the factors that affect delivery of value to shareholders.
8 Bradford MBA
Introduction to the Module
Assessment criteria
The assignment will contribute 100% of the module assessment. The
report should be typed or word-processed and should comprise no more
than 2,000 words, not including appendices. The assignment will be
assessed and you will be advised of your results.
Aim
The assignment is designed to test your understanding of corporate
finance and explores a number of areas within the module by applying
your learning to a real company. There is no perfect answer and therefore
you should state your assumptions clearly and make good use of
appendices. Remember, this is not a strategy or marketing assignment, so
focus on the finance!
Assignment tasks
Select a company listed on an internationally recognised and well-
established Stock Exchange (see below for choice of company):
Discuss how successful the company has been at delivering value to its
shareholders over the past 5 years.
Complete an EVA analysis of your company for the last 5 years.
Clearly show your work rather than using final EVA numbers from
another source.
Analyse the Total Shareholder Return (TSR) of the company for the
past 5 years, including any key events and compare with a similar
company or appropriate benchmark.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
You must clearly explain all of your assumptions used in the valuations.
Choice of company
Guidelines
The report should include:
a key point summary of your conclusions
graphical illustration, where appropriate
a bibliography of sources of information used and references to texts or
other material drawn upon. You should follow Harvard referencing
guidelines which can be found on the Bradford University library
website.
detailed tables, extracts or copies of financial information should be
placed in the appendices if they are necessary to understand your
report. You should only include appendices if you refer to them in the
body of the report. You do not need to include the entire financial
statements.
You should not embed spreadsheets in the Word document as they will
not be seen by the marker. You should only copy those tables which
are important for the reader to understand your work.
10 Bradford MBA
Introduction to the Module
Management library. You should request this information from the librarian
or go to the ‘How To’ resource selection and consult the ‘How To’ library
section for further information. Other special reports, for example,
Company Focus, are available from the Financial Times Share Service, or
brokers’ circulars issued from time to time by the broking arm of numerous
finance houses. Data can also be found online from the company
websites, yahoo.com, Bloomberg.com and other internet sources.
Click Choose File and select the file you wish to submit from your device
or own file store.
A message will appear on the right of the screen confirming that you have
successfully submitted your work.
Supplementary assessment
In the event that you are required to take supplementary assessment you
will be notified of this immediately after by the Examination Board. Prior to
the submission of any supplementary assessment you will have the
opportunity to have a one-to-one and/or group meeting (online or in
person) with the module tutor to discuss the supplementary assessment.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
By following this study regime you will leave yourself plenty of time to
prepare your assignment.
Textbook
Throughout the module, you will need to refer to the module textbook:
We are integrating the electronic version of the textbook into the course.
Not only is this more sustainable than sending heavy textbooks around the
world, it will make the textbook available on multiple devices, it will allow
you to highlight or annotate the text and create notes which you can share
with others. This will ensure that your experience of using the etextbook is
optimised beyond the basic advantages of easier portability, eco-
friendliness and speed of textbook delivery.
12 Bradford MBA
Introduction to the Module
If you haven’t received an email from Kortext by the 9 July, please contact
the admin team via gp.mbadladministration@bradford.ac.uk.
If you have any questions about accessing your Kortext account or need
help using the etextbook you can contact Kortext directly via
support@kortext.com.
Bradford MBA 13
Study Book: Corporate Finance
If you have never used the Canvas online tutorial platform before, it is
essential that you familiarise yourself with the platform and test your
computer setup before you attend the first tutorial. For support and
information please go to:
https://community.canvaslms.com/docs/DOC-10503-4212627661.
Please note that the live tutorials will support you in your assignment
preparation.
Internet resources
Useful websites are listed below but you are advised to question the
information provided on these sites or with any other resources which you
use – is it ‘fact’ or someone’s opinion?
https://www.ft.com
https://www.advfn.com
https://www.bbc.co.uk/business
http://www.bloomberg.co.uk
https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
https://www.hemscott.com
Additional textbooks
If you wish to explore the subject area further, these textbooks are of use:
Hillier, D., Ross, S., Westerfield, R., Jaffe, J. and Jordan, B. (2013)
Corporate Finance. European Edition of 2nd revised Edition. McGraw Hill.
14 Bradford MBA
Introduction to the Module
1. A citation in the text. This appears next to the information you have
used. It consists of the family name of the author followed by the year of
publication. Each citation is matched to a reference.
2. The reference goes in a reference list at the end of your work. The list is
in alphabetical order. It contains the full details of all of the sources
referred to in the text.
This Study Book provides you with a model for citing literature and
presenting reference lists. Citations in the body of the units and in the
References section at the end of each unit, follow the University of
Bradford version of the Harvard referencing system. However, please note
that the references provided in the grey boxes at the start of each unit and
at intervals throughout use a different convention, with hyperlinks
embedded behind the title of the item (rather than given separately at the
end of the reference) and no access date included. This is simply to
increase the flow of text in the grey boxes.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
16 Bradford MBA
Unit 1:
Introductory Issues
and Concepts
Key reading:
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 1 and Chapter 11, section 9
Key video:
1. An Introduction to MBA Corporate Finance (Canvas > Dashboard >
Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 1 > Activity 1.1)
2. The Role of the Financial Manager (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile
> Module Materials > Unit 1 > Activity 1.2)
Other:
1. Unit 1 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 1) – Activity 1.5
3. Unit 1 live online tutorial (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Collaborate) – Activity 1.8
Introduction
This module on corporate finance follows directly from your earlier study of
accounting. You will recall that in accounting there is generally a definable
solution, although we may sometimes argue about which accounting
policy, for example, depreciation, should be used. Balance sheets tend to
balance and cash flow figures tend to equal movements in cash and short-
term deposits. This often gives people a degree of comfort – while
perhaps difficult to find in some cases, there is solace in the notion that
there is a correct solution somewhere!
Bradford MBA 17
Study Book: Corporate Finance
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
explain the role of the financial manager in a modern corporation
specify the relationship between net present value (NPV) and company
value
identify the primary determinants of company value (value drivers)
determine whether, and to what extent, a company has created value
for its owners
understand the agency problem and the issue of corporate social
responsibility.
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Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
With financing decisions, this is more difficult. Financial markets are far
more efficient than product markets and, given increasing globalisation,
are becoming even more so. Providers of finance are increasingly able to
price in the true risks of lending so that the structure of interest rates
across the world financial markets very faithfully reflects the risks involved
in different types of loan (and other methods of finance). This is a
reflection of market efficiency. As we will see later, an efficient financial
market fully incorporates the risk and return characteristics of different
securities in their relative prices.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
Financial
Demand 3 4 Supply
manager
In Figure 1.1, arrow 1 represents the flow of cash into the firm, arrow 2
represents the allocation of funds to projects, arrow 3 represents the
return flow of cash from successful projects, and arrow 4 represents the
return of cash to investors in the form of interest payments and dividends.
In most firms, the amount returned to the market (flow 4) is less than the
cash generated from operations in the short term, as firms wish to retain
financial resources for reinvestment.
Watch: The Role of the Financial Manager (Canvas > Dashboard >
Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 1).
20 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
What are the main types of decision that a financial manager makes? Give
a relevant example.
Concept of value
A successful financial decision is one that creates value, that is, it is worth
more than it costs. Consider the following example.
A company raises £1,000 from investors who require a return of 15%. The
return will be sufficient to compensate for their time value of money and
will presumably include a premium to allow for risk. The money is to be
invested in a short-term project with no residual value. It will have a single
cash flow after one year. For shareholders to be no worse off, the end-
year cash flow must be at least £1,000 (1.15) = £1,150 in order to meet
the required return. Now imagine the company expects a cash flow of
£1,300. The NPV of the investment is thus:
£1,300
NPV = – £1,000 + = – £1,000 + £1,130 = + £130
(1.15)
This project, which has a positive NPV, does three things for the owners:
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
The surplus after meeting the interest charge and recovering the initial
capital outlay, when discounted, is the NPV of the project:
£150
(1.15) = £130
Hence, the NPV of the project equals the increase in shareholder wealth
or value. A value-maximising company will attempt to develop and exploit
as many positive NPV projects as it can, in order to maximise the wealth of
its shareholders. In our example, the value of the project is £1,130 and the
value created is £130. Since a firm is a collection of projects, the value of
a company is simply the value of all its projects or the sum of all future
discounted cash flows. This is sometimes called its capitalisation.
Value determinants
Read: Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 1: 16–19 and Chapter 11: 288–291
Figure 1.2 expresses the determinants of company value, and thus is the
focus of this module. Essentially, these centre on, firstly, the investment
policy of the company, which determines the cash flows from which
dividends may be paid out to shareholders, and, secondly, the discount
rate at which these cash flows are discounted. The discount rate, or
required return, depends on the inherent risk of the company’s chosen
activity and also the financial policy it adopts. For example, does the
company use a mixture of equity and debt? This is often considered risky
because of the legal obligation to meet interest charges whatever
happens. And if it does use debt, what mixture of long-term debt and
short-term debt does it use? Short-term debt is often considered riskier
than long-term debt as it can be withdrawn at short notice. Although there
are advantages to debt financing, the additional financial risk imposed
does sometimes compel companies to offer a higher return as
compensation.
22 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
Risk–return trade-off
Our previous comments about risk and return lead to the consideration of
the risk–return trade-off. Any developed capital market will establish a
clear relationship between the rate of return required (or yield) on different
types of security and their risks. The yield on short-term government
debt, which is often considered risk-free, establishes the benchmark. Any
other securities have to offer an extra yield or risk premium, as
compensation for the risk they carry. The riskiest securities of all are
ordinary shares because there is no obligation for the company to pay a
dividend and, in the event of insolvency, the ordinary shareholder, being
the last to receive anything, will probably receive nothing. Conversely, the
risk to the company is low since failure to pay a return – the dividend – will
not result in legal action, as would be the case with corporate bonds. It is
useful to remember the two-sided nature of the risk of securities.
Bradford MBA 23
Study Book: Corporate Finance
types of security and therefore dictates the cost of capital, the denominator
in the valuation expression. Normally, investors are risk-averse – they
dislike risk but can be enticed to accept it, given suitable encouragement
by a higher than expected return.
Equities
Yield (%)
Preference
shares
Bonds
Treasury bills
Risk
Accounting or strategy?
Modern corporate finance centres on the concept of value and how it can
be created for the owners of the firm. In this respect, the focus has moved
away from that of traditional accounting. For the traditional accountant, a
company was a set of assets to be valued on ‘prudent’ accounting
principles of (usually) historic cost less depreciation. The modern financial
manager is far more aware of the importance of marketing and strategic
management, and aware that the development and pursuit of strategies
creates value for the owners. As a result, modern corporate finance
involves identifying the factors that create value – the value drivers – and
managing these appropriately.
24 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
The key value drivers are displayed in Figure 1.4, which shows the three
foci of strategy, and how they create value through the various value
drivers.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
Delivering value
Value creation is one issue – deciding how to deliver to shareholders is
another. Shareholders receive value in two forms, payment of dividends
and appreciation in share price. Taking the two elements together, we
have a concept known as total shareholder return (TSR). Most
companies, if they are successful, will deliver a mixture of returns. As you
will see, the precise balance between the two components can be an
important decision for the management of a company to make.
1. How, if at all, has the company structure changed over the past year?
For example, has it divested any activities or made any acquisitions?
2. How have sales in total changed? How have sales by activity changed?
26 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
7. What can you glean about the company’s corporate and financial
strategy?
Not all this information will be in the annual report and accounts. It is
important to interpret the answers in relation to what has happened in the
overall economy.
Short-term pressures
In the past, managers have typically been rewarded on the basis of year-
by-year performance. Coupled with focus on accounting measures of
performance, this has allegedly led to preference by managers for policies
that enhance short-term performance, possibly to the detriment of long-
term performance.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
After reading the above two paragraphs on the agency problem and short-
term pressures note down the answers to the following question.
Since most shareholders are impressed by, and actively seek, share price
appreciation, the solution seems to be to link managerial bonuses in with
share price performance via some form of long-term incentive plan
(LTIP). An example is a share option scheme. These are designed to
encourage managers to grow share price by allowing them to convert, or
exercise, share options. For example, imagine today’s share price is £1.
Managers may be incentivised by the offer of options to purchase shares
at, say, £1.50 in three years’ time. Any excess of market price above
£1.50 at the conversion date represents pure profit to the managers.
Clearly, such a scheme should not be made so demanding that it is
demotivating, nor should it be made too easy, unless the company wants
to bind the manager to the company.
28 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
There are many definitions available, but De Cremer et al. (2011) say that
‘most definitions focus on evaluating the moral acceptability of the actions
of management, organizational leaders and their employees’. More
specifically, it is related to a company’s attitude and conduct towards its
suppliers, customers, employees, shareholders and communities.
However, in modern corporate finance, maximising shareholder wealth is
the main objective of the firm. Is this objective consistent with corporate
social responsibility? Some argue that it is consistent where most
businesses are concerned, as shareholder wealth partially rests on the
reputation of the firm. However, there are always a few companies that
seek short-term gains from unethical activities by doing such things as
pursuing a project that may damage the climate or by employing child
labour. Although these firms may be able to increase their profits or
reduce costs in the short run, such unethical activities will damage both
their reputations and shareholder wealth in the long run. Therefore, it is
important for a corporation to be aware of its social responsibility and to
demonstrate its financial integrity and environmental awareness to the
public. Humphrey et al. (2012) (which you will read for Activity 1.7) found
that in their study of UK firms, there did not seem to be any stock market
penalty (or reward, unfortunately) for having socially responsible corporate
policies.
Corporate governance
These aspects bring us to the highly topical issue of corporate
governance. This is the way in which companies are managed at senior
levels. Since 2000, there have been numerous examples of spectacular
collapses of companies such as Enron, WorldCom and Lehman Brothers,
as well as more recent scandals like the LIBOR fixing scandal, currency
manipulation and money laundering accusations against global banking
giants. These companies had grown rapidly, acquiring other companies by
substantial issues of debt finance, which proved difficult to service when
the recession began. Sometimes corporate difficulties were laced with
fraud. In addition, ‘excessive’ payments to senior executives had been a
major concern, as high payments were often apparently unrelated to
performance. Many of these cases of ‘misgovernance’ seemed to be
associated with the activities of a single, dominant personality, who often
combined the roles of chief executive officer and company chairman. To
deal with these problems, guidelines of best practice in corporate
governance in the UK were issued by the Cadbury, Greenbury, Hampel
and Hicks committees, now consolidated in the UK Corporate Governance
Code (formerly known as the Combined Code), which is backed by the
London Stock Exchange. Directors have to state how the requirements of
the code have been applied. The CFA Institute has also developed a list of
best corporate governance practices for corporate directors and senior
executives. You will find links to these resources in the additional learning
resources at the end of this unit and an excellent paper by Shleifer and
Vishny (1999), which, while a little older, is an excellent literature survey
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
Summary
This introductory unit has covered many ideas and concepts you will
encounter in corporate finance. As well as absorbing the significance of
these concepts, you should have realised the importance of keeping
abreast of developments in the financial world. Read the quality financial
press, for example, in the UK, Financial Times, Times, Guardian and
Independent. In the next unit, we examine more closely the question of
how to actually measure value, and consider the limitations of the methods
that we use.
Read the case study below and then note down answers to the following
questions.
Question 2: Using the data provided, assess the extent to which NEW
has met the interests of shareholders in its first six years as a privatised
enterprise.
30 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
Selected biannual data from NEW’s accounts are provided (see table
below) relating to three of the first six years of operating as a private-
sector concern. Also shown, for comparison, are the pro forma data as
included in the privatisation documents. The pro forma accounts are
notional accounts prepared to show the operating and financial
performance of the company in its last year under public ownership as if it
had applied private-sector accounting conventions. They also incorporate
a dividend payment based on the dividend policy declared in the
prospectus.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 1).
32 Bradford MBA
Unit 1: Introductory Issues and Concepts
This initial online tutorial will provide you with an opportunity to meet your
module tutor and other students in the course, as well as get an overview
of the course and the final assessment. It is vital that you take part in this
exercise as it will enable successful participation in future online tutorials.
Your participation in all the tutorials will also support you in your
assignment preparation.
Live online tutorial: To access the tutorial, please go to: Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Online Tutorials > Activity 1.8 – live online
tutorial. For support and information about Canvas online tutorials, please
go to: https://community.canvaslms.com/docs/DOC-10503-4212627661.
References
De Cremer, D., van Dick, R., Tenbrunsel, A., Pilutla, M. and Murnighan,
J.K. (2011) Understanding Ethical Behaviour and Decision Making in
Management: A Behavioural Business Ethics Approach. British Journal of
Management 22, S1–S4.
Lewis, P.V. (1985) Defining ‘Business Ethics’: Like Nailing Jello to a Wall.
Journal of Business Ethics 4(5), 377–383.
Bradford MBA 33
Unit 2:
Company Valuation –
Part 1
Key reading
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapters 2 and 3
Other:
1. The Efficient Market Hypothesis audio lecture (Canvas > Dashboard >
Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 2 > Activity 2.4)
2. Unit 2 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 2) – Activity 2.6
Introduction
The cornerstone of corporate finance decision-making is value creation for
the owners of the company – good decisions create value, poor decisions
destroy value. We, therefore, need a thorough understanding of how
companies are valued, in order to assess the likely impact of our financial
decisions on the wealth of shareholders. For example, how will a new
investment project affect value? What may happen to company value if we
announce an increase in dividends? In this unit, we will apply the principle
of capital market efficiency to value quoted companies.
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
understand why financial managers need to value companies
distinguish between the three forms of market efficiency
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
understand how the stock market values ordinary shares and why these
values change.
The market price represents people’s best estimate of the likely future
profitability of the company, taking into account all available information,
and should strike a balance between those who are bullish (positive)
about the company and those who are bearish (negative). However,
market prices can only reflect the information made available, and some
firms are very careful in releasing information. Also, there are times when
rumour and speculation may predominate, distorting the ‘true picture’!
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Unit 2: Company Valuation – Part 1
To fulfil both these functions, the market must command trust – people
must have confidence that they will receive fair value when selling
securities and have to offer fair value when buying securities. If securities
are persistently mispriced by the market, an arbitrary redistribution of
income and wealth will result, benefiting those ‘in the know’ at the expense
of those duped into ill-informed participation. If capital markets fail in these
functions, the flow of finance to companies wishing to expand will dry up.
Concepts of ‘efficiency’
Read: Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 2: 34–35, Chapter 3: 67–72
Efficiency can mean many things. The economist talks about allocative
efficiency – the extent to which resources are allocated to the most
productive uses, thus satisfying society’s needs to the maximum. The
engineer talks about operating or technical efficiency – the extent to
which a mechanism performs to maximum capability. The sociologist and
the political scientist talk about social efficiency – the extent to which a
mechanism conforms to accepted social and political mores and values.
The most important concept of efficiency for our purposes is pricing or
information efficiency. This refers to the extent to which available
information is built into the structure of share prices.
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While opinions differ about the impact of rumour and speculation, there is
general agreement that what fundamentally determines the value of
shares in a company is the future stream of benefits, in the form of
dividends, which the company is expected to generate. Some people say
earnings are more important than dividends since, ultimately, dividends
can be only paid out of earnings. While this is true, it is equally valid to say
that future earnings represent potential future dividends; eventually, even
a company with a policy of high retention will unlock these in the form of
dividends. Here is a classic example: Microsoft, after years of phenomenal
growth, started to pay dividends in 2003. Ryanair, which was floated in
1997, paid its first dividend in 2010. Through these examples, we can see
that the share value in previous years can be driven by expectations, but
eventually comes to fruition, in that the company will eventually deliver
value to shareholders in cash form.
D1 D2 Dn
P0 = + 2 + ... +
(1+ke ) (1+ke ) (1+ke )n
D
if D is constant, and the series infinite, P0 =
ke
38 Bradford MBA
Unit 2: Company Valuation – Part 1
It is now 2015. Tick the events in the following list which you think may
significantly affect the current share price of Laxog, a UK pharmaceuticals
group. Reflecting on the box’s you have ticked, in the space provided
below, outline why you think these events will affect Laxog’s share price.
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40 Bradford MBA
Unit 2: Company Valuation – Part 1
There are three levels of efficiency of the stock market defined in terms of
who has access to what information and when. These levels of efficiency
are:
weak form
semi-strong form
strong form.
Weak form
This applies when share prices reflect all historic data, that is, all the
information contained in the records of past share price movements.
Prices will only change when new information arrives, although possibly
not immediately and perfectly. Under weak-form efficiency, investors
cannot hope to beat the market by using an investment strategy based on
studying past share price movements. Many people believe, and act, to
the contrary. So-called chartists engage in technical analysis, the
detailed scrutiny of past movements to identify repetitive trends. Some of
them claim to have identified reliable dealing rules that allow them to ‘beat
the market’, but empirical tests of these rules have consistently revealed
that none is superior to a simple ‘buy and hold’ strategy. This supports the
view that markets are weak-form efficient.
In the space provided note down why a dealing rule like ‘Always buy in
early December’ should be doomed to failure. This rule is designed to
exploit the so-called ‘end of year effect’ claiming that share prices ‘always’
rise at the end of the year.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
Semi-strong form
Share prices incorporate all published data relevant to the share price.
This will also include background data, such as changes in interest rates.
When new information arrives, the share price adjusts appropriately and
immediately. In reality, there is a short ‘window’ of a minute or so during
which market dealers can exploit the information before prices settle
down. (By the time you and I hear the news, it is too late!) Sometimes,
share prices will be unchanged by the publication of interim results, for
example, because those results have already been forecast and the
forecasts are widely known.
Strong form
Under strong-form efficiency, share prices incorporate all information,
including that which could only be obtained by careful internal scrutiny of
the company or inside information. In a strong-form efficient market,
prices will respond quickly even to unpublished information, that is, inside
information. This explains apparently erratic movements of share prices in
the absence of newly released information. If you cannot consistently beat
the market using all available information, including private inside
information, then the market is said to be strong-form efficient. Few
people believe that this is true of capital markets.
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It is noted that share prices of takeover targets invariably rise before the
formal announcement of a takeover bid. What does this suggest for the
EMH? On the face of it, this represents insider dealing, by people in the
know. It could represent speculation and rumour. If the company is known
to be weak, then it is a candidate for takeover and people begin to
speculate about how much the company may be worth in the hands of an
alternative owner.
Employing researchers
Finally, if the UK market is information-efficient, why do you think so many
people are employed to research into company prospects and to publish
research circulars?
Summary
In this section, we have looked at how the stock market values a company
and the importance of stock-market efficiency in setting ‘correct’ values.
Obviously, not all companies are quoted and those that are not have to be
valued using alternative means. Indeed, not everyone accepts the EMH
either – and such people also use alternative methods to value quoted
companies, especially in a takeover situation where a premium for control
is normally required. We will look at alternative methods in the next unit.
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Unit 2: Company Valuation – Part 1
Listen to: The Efficient Market Hypothesis audio lecture (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 2 > Activity 2.4)
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 2).
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Question 2: If the stock market is efficient, does that mean can nobody
ever beat the market?
References
Doran, J.S., Peterson, D.R. and Wright, C. (2010) Confidence, opinions of
market efficiency, and investment behaviour of finance professors. Journal
of Financial Markets 13, 174–195.
46 Bradford MBA
Unit 3:
Company Valuation –
Part 2
Key reading
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 11
3. Reading for tutorial (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Online
Tutorials > Activity 3.11)
2. Forecasting for a DCF valuation (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Module Materials > Unit 3 > Activity 3.5)
3. MVA and EVA (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module Materials
> Unit 3 > Activity 3.6)
Other:
1. Unit 3 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 3) – Activity 3.7
3. Unit 3 online tutorial (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Online
Tutorials > Activity 3.11)
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Introduction
In Unit 2, we discussed how to value quoted companies by applying the
principle of capital market efficiency. In this unit, we look at valuing
unquoted companies using alternative valuation techniques and
shareholder value analysis. These methods are also widely applicable to
publicly traded firms. As you will see, it builds firmly on the concepts
introduced in Unit 1, such as the relationship between risk and return and
the notion of value drivers. Again, you will see further application of
discounting approaches to value measurement. There are many valuation
techniques that are used in practice, but we only focus on the most well-
known and widely used of these. There is little doubt that cash flow-
oriented measures of value are becoming more and more prevalent as
guides to corporate financial managers and their advisers. Therefore, a
thorough understanding of the material in this unit and the relevant chapter
of Pike et al. (2015) will provide important insights into why people
increasingly view the primary motive of companies as the pursuit of value,
and how they perceive value.
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
value a company and its shares using:
– net assets value method
– price:earnings ratio method
– discounted cash flow method
discuss the limitations of these three methods
apply a shareholder-value based method of valuation
discern the link between value drivers and shareholder value analysis.
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Application
Now let us apply these methods to the following example. Shark is a
quoted company contemplating a takeover of an unquoted company,
Minnow. We have the following extracts from their respective accounts.
Shark Minnow
£m £m
Fixed assets (net) 12.2 3.5
Current assets 7.3 3.7
Current liabilities (2.2) (1.1)
10% long-term loan stock (3.5) (0.5)
Net assets 13.8 5.6
Ordinary share capital (par value £1) 10.0 5.00
Share premium – 0.2
Profit and loss account 3.8 0.4
Shareholders’ funds 13.8 5.6
Profit after tax attributable to
ordinary shareholders 2.4 1.5
Current market price/share £2.40 n/a
EPS 24p 30p
P:E ratio 10:1 n/a
Notes:
– No synergistic benefits (although this is unrealistic in a takeover
situation).
– Minnow’s depreciation charge = £0.2 million pa.
– Minnow’s profits include a (non-taxable) exceptional item of £0.3 million
relating to the profit on the sale of an asset.
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The total value of the company is the value of its assets. This is the
amount that a bidder would have to pay to acquire the company. However,
the valuation for a takeover hinges on valuing the equity stake – the net
value of the owner’s stake. The amount offered must be adequate to
persuade the owners to relinquish their control. In order to complete the
acquisition, the bidder will also have to make arrangements about the
liabilities of the company.
Refer to the figures and information given in the case of Shark and
Minnow above, and note down the answers to the following questions.
Assets
Fixed asset values are usually based on historic cost less depreciation.
Different depreciation methods result in different values of fixed assets.
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Liabilities
Although these factors can be adjusted for, the fundamental problem with
the NAV method is that it views the company as a set of assets rather than
as an income-generating activity. It ignores the company’s earning power,
which is what really drives value. NAV is really only valid when a company
is making losses, or has a collection of assets that have a much greater
value when put to some alternative use, such as farming land converted to
a housing estate.
There are two main valuation approaches that focus on future income, the
price-earnings (P:E) ratio approach, which is based on accounting
profits, and discounted cash flow.
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The P:E ratio indicates how the market rates a company’s prospects.
Specifically, it signals how the stock market values each £1 of company
earnings. For example, a company with earnings (after tax) per share of
20p and a share price of £2 has a P:E ratio of £2 ÷ 20p = 10, or 10:1.
Note that it is based on current earnings so that a high P:E indicates faith
in the potential of a company to grow its earnings. One way to look at this
is to say that a P:E ratio, because it is driven by market price, indicates not
how well a company has done in the past, but how well it is expected to
perform in the future. It is also important to note that a company with a
high P:E ratio is not necessarily ‘better’ than a company with a low P:E
ratio. The difference simply reflects the expectations for future earnings
growth. A company with a low P:E ratio may have slow, steady, consistent
earnings growth and be a good long-term investment.
Read the financial report of Minnow Company again and complete the
task.
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Watch: Valuation using price ratios (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Module Materials > Unit 3 > Activity 3.3).
A DCF approach has the advantage of focusing on cash flows rather than
profits. Cash flows are less easily distorted by accounting manipulation.
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average over the past few years may overcome this problem. Second,
we may want to build in growth potential. This is easily done but the
appropriate rate to build in is problematic. One approach is to take the
forecast rate of growth of the industrial sector of which the company is a
member.
Watch: Forecasting for a DCF valuation (Canvas > Dashboard > Module
Tile > Module Materials > Unit 3 > Activity 3.5)
In recent years, there has been greater appreciation of the need for
managers to meet the interests of shareholders. In general terms, this can
be achieved by achieving a rate of return which, at the very least, matches
their required return on investment, or the cost of equity. Remember that
shareholders incur an opportunity cost when subscribing capital for firms
to use and managers are then legally obliged to safeguard those funds
with all due diligence.
Sometimes, managers feel that ‘their’ companies are not ‘correctly’ valued
by the stock market – we saw a steady trickle of firms delisting from the
main UK market during 1998–2003, largely for this reason, although the
recovery in the stock markets since 2003 arrested this trend. Moreover,
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share prices can swing quite violently in the short term. In consequence,
both managers and shareholders often feel the need for a more objective
and reliable measure of value than simply today’s market price. This
measure can be provided by the shareholder value approach, propounded
by Rappaport (1986) and drawing on the work of Michael Porter (1985).
You met the concept of a value driver in Unit 1 – here we make use of this
idea to analyse inherent shareholder value which provides a cross-check
on the market valuation of a company. We investigate Silsden plc using
this approach.
Application
The board of Silsden plc is concerned about its stock market value of
£40 million, especially since as board members, they hold 40% of the
ordinary shares. The board is aware of concepts such as SVA and has
assembled the following data:
Silsden presently pays out 30% of profit after tax as dividend and is
ungeared. The board estimates that Silsden can continue to enjoy its
traditional competitive advantage as a low-cost provider for a further six
years, at the end of which, it estimates that the book value of its assets will
be £75 million. What is the inherent or underlying value of this company?
Solution
To value Silsden, we can adopt a DCF approach, using the 14% required
return. There is no debt finance so all operating profits (less tax) are
attributable to shareholders. There appears to be no long-term investment
programme, and wear-and-tear is made good at a rate roughly
corresponding to tax-allowable depreciation provisions. This means that
free cash flows are equal to operating profits less tax. The firm enjoys a
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temporary cost advantage for six years beyond which cash flows are
uncertain. Post-year 6 cash flows can be handled in a number of ways.
3. The safest assumption to make is that the expected year 6 book value
of assets will approximate the value of all future cash flows, that is, the
company has no further excess earnings capacity.
Present value of
cash flows + Residual value of
during years 1– 6 company at year 6
(competitive advantage
period)
Year
£m 1 2 3 4 5 6
Cash flows 5.51 5.79 6.08 6.38 6.70 7.03
(net of tax)
PV @ 14% 4.83 4.46 4.10 3.78 3.48 3.20
Total = £23.85m
PV of residual value = £75m PVIF14,6
= £75m 0.4556 = £34.17 million
Shareholder value = £23.85m + £34.17m = £58.02 million
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This raises the obvious question of why the market should place such a
low value on Silsden. We can consider some possible reasons for the
apparent market undervaluation of Silsden. (See if you can identify which
value driver is inherent in each point.)
The market may apply a higher discount rate, for example, seeking a
higher reward for risk.
The growth estimate may be regarded as optimistic.
The flow of information provided to the market may be inadequate – for
example, are Silsden’s future investment plans known?
Board control may be perceived as excessive – (presumably) family-
dominated enterprises rarely enjoy a good stock market rating. (Why
not?)
The dividend policy may be thought ungenerous.
There may be doubts about whether Silsden can recover competitive
advantage.
The market may be unimpressed with Silsden’s cost advantage-based
strategy.
Silsden’s gearing may be thought to be too low. At zero, there is no tax
shield.
SVA provides the basis for two further value-related concepts that are
currently very popular.
Watch: MVA and EVA (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 3 > Activity 3.6)
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company. Companies have values above their book values if they are
expected to add value by effective use of capital. Conversely,
companies that have a poor investment record or which hoard cash will
not be rated highly on this measure. The MVA is thus the future
expected stream of EVAs discounted at the shareholders’ required
return.
Summary
In this unit, we have presented a variety of perspectives on the valuation
of companies and on shareholder-oriented concepts of value. You should
now appreciate that accounting concepts are only a beginning in this tricky
but fascinating field. Try to observe cases in the financial press of
valuations, for example, in takeover situations, which seem hard to justify
and comprehend to the outsider. This will not be difficult!
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 3).
Read: Sharma, A.K. and Kumar, S. (2010) Economic Value Added (EVA)
– Literature Review and Relevant Issues. International Journal of
Economics and Finance 2(2), 200–220 (Canvas > Dashboard > Module
Tile > Module Materials > Unit 3 > Activity 3.9)
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Read: the short case and answer the questions provided (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Collaborate > Live Online Tutorial 2)
The scenario will form the basis of an online tutorial. Note down your
answers to the question provided and be ready to discuss your answer
during the online live tutorial. You will need to use a spreadsheet such as
Excel to solve the problem. (Your tutor will have posted details of the date
and time this tutorial will take place.)
Please note that the live tutorials will support you in preparing for the
assignment.
Live online tutorial: To access the tutorial, please go to: Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Online Tutorials > Activity 3.10 – live online
tutorial. For support and information about Canvas online tutorials, please
go to: https://community.canvaslms.com/docs/DOC-10503-4212627661.
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resources/professional-exams-study-resources/p5/technical-
articles/economic-value-added-part1.html Accessed 1 June 2018.
References
Sharma, A.K. and Kumar, S. (2010) Economic Value Added (EVA) –
Literature Review and Relevant Issues. International Journal of Economics
and Finance 2(2), 200–220.
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Unit 4:
Investment Decisions
Key reading
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapters 4 and 5
Key video:
1. The NPV and IRR (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 4 > Activity 4.2)
2. Capital budgeting (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 4 > Activity 4.6)
Other:
1. Unit 4 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 4) – Activity 4.7
Introduction
You are already experienced in investment appraisal. You met this topic in
the Business Accounting module, where you learned the importance of the
time value of money and the need to discount cash flows, and discovered
the difference between ‘crude’ methods of appraisal and the discounted
cash flow methods. In this unit, we extend your previous studies. However,
the field of investment appraisal is vast. Consequently, we must narrow
our focus to cover the key problem areas in this field. Initially, we look at
the structure and characteristics of the investment decision to emphasise
its importance for the firm, before reviewing the main methods of appraisal
used by firms. You encountered these – payback, accounting rate of
return (ARR), and the discounted cash flow (DCF) approaches – in your
earlier module. We then concentrate on the last group of methods to show
how practical problem aspects, such as taxation and inflation, can be
handled in project appraisal.
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Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
apply the commonly-used investment appraisal methods
understand why net present value (NPV) is regarded as the best
method
incorporate inflation into project appraisal
allow for corporate taxation in project appraisal.
Give reasons why investment decisions are among the most (if not,
the most) important ones which a company makes.
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Irrelevant costs include sunk costs, for example, those already incurred or
those to which the firm is already contractually committed and therefore
inescapable, and apportioned fixed costs, which would be incurred
anyway. An example of the latter is the shared-out central administration
costs, which may be unaffected by the project, but, for accounting
purposes, are partly attributed to the project. This is not to say that fixed
administrative costs are irrelevant. The level of these may be affected by
the project, for example, there may be incremental overhead costs to
consider.
Projects can range from those leading to higher revenues to those which
are cost-saving in nature. In all cases, the best project is the one which
results in greatest wealth creation.
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Payback involves calculating how quickly the cash flows generated by the
project recover the initial outlay. If this period of time is within or equal to a
stipulated time period, the project is accepted.
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Discounted cash flow (DCF) methods all have the common advantage of
incorporating the rate of return required by the investors, which is based
on their time preference – their relative preference for money now as
compared to money in the future, the time value of money. A project is
only worthwhile if it generates a rate of return above the minimum rate of
return required by investors. Many companies ignore this simple truth, and
in the process, they destroy value for their owners. There are several
variants of the DCF approach. First, we look at the net present value
method.
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( 1+ r )
CFt
NPV t
I0
t 1
Special cases
Annuities – For projects with constant annual cash flows, you can
value the cash flows using a single formula rather than valuing each
individual cash flow. You can find more information on valuing annuities
in the additional learning resources at the end of the unit.
Perpetuities – A simple perpetuity is a constant cash flow project which
goes on forever. Its present value is simply:
1
annual cash flow
discount rate
A growing perpetuity – where the perpetuity grows at a constant rate,
g. Its present value is:
For example, if this year’s cash flow is £500, g is 5%, and investors
require a return of 15%, the present value of all the future cash flows is:
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(cash outflow) cost of acquiring the asset over its expected lifetime. By
setting the initial cash flow cost against the present value of the future
cash flows you are effectively ‘depreciating’ the project. If the NPV is
positive, the project recovers its initial expenditure and automatically
‘depreciates’ itself. Making a separate annual depreciation charge
results in double-counting for the initial outlay and poses the risk of
rejecting a worthwhile investment.
GPV
initial outlay = GPV per £ invested
You will accept the project if the PI > 1.0. Both the NPV and PI will give
the same answer to the accept/reject decision for a single project, but may
give different results when projects of differing sizes are being compared. .
The PI gives an indication of the efficiency or productivity of capital
invested in the project. It is biased in favour of productive projects, which
are desirable when capital resources are limited.
£15,000 £15,000
= = = £8,645
annuity factor 1.735
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= £15,538
£15,538
This is equivalent to an annuity of = £8,956
1.735
This is the rate of discount at which the NPV = 0. The decision rule is to
accept the project if the IRR > the required return. It will give the same
answer as the NPV method to the accept/reject decision.
IRR says ‘do B’ and NPV says ‘do A’. Which should be undertaken? This
‘ranking problem’ arises because the IRR ignores the scale of the two
projects and thus the relative magnitude of the benefits. Scaling down
project B to just 1% of the original size would not affect its IRR but the
NPV would become minuscule. In these situations, decision makers are
recommended to use the NPV method as it signifies how much wealth is
created by the project (which is the object of the exercise).
Watch: The NPV and IRR (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 4 > Activity 4.2)
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By working through this section, you will be able to take inflation and
taxation into account when assessing investment projects in practice.
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Inflation
Why is inflation a problem? Under conditions of inflation, shareholders
require company management at least to maintain the real value of their
investment and to achieve an overall rate of return that fully compensates
for inflation. This means that the future purchasing power of project cash
flows must be no less than if there were stationary prices. For example,
consider a two-year project with cash flows of £100 in each year. With no
inflation, the purchasing power of each cash flow is £100 (although the
present values differ via the time value of money). With 10% compound
inflation, the purchasing power of the cash flows falls exponentially:
100 100
Year 1: purchasing power of 100 = = = 91
Year 1 Price index 110
100 100
Year 2: purchasing power of 100 = = = 83
Year 2 Price
index 121
In other words, future cash flows require deflation for two reasons: for the
time value of money in the normal way; and also for inflation. If
shareholders require a real, net of inflation, return (r) of 10% the real
present values (RPV) are:
And the discount rate (required rate of return) adjusted for inflation at the
rate p:
= (1 + r) (1 + p) – 1
= (1.1) (1.1) – 1 = 21%
This is known as the money cost of capital and denoted as m – the cost
of finance expressed in terms that incorporate inflation. It can be
approximated by adding the two elements r and p together, m = r + p. This
is only a shortcut and may be misleading for high values of r and p.
Types of inflation
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Not all prices inflate at the same rate. The revenues from the project could
inflate by more than general inflation (which is beneficial) or the costs
could overshoot the general rate. Even when the rates of inflation are
equivalent, different items may adjust in price at different times. For
example, firms often produce price lists at the start of the year, and stay
with these figures, although their costs may inflate during the year. This is
unsynchronised inflation.
Question 1: If today’s bank base rate is 7.0% and the current rate of
inflation is 2.5%, what is the rate of return required by lenders in real
terms?
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* [(1.15) (1.05) – 1]
There are two (equally valid) correct ways of tackling inflation in project
appraisal, both of which give the same answer:
or
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Calculation
= £1,650
Allowing
for taxation in DCF
Allowing for taxation is essential but can be tedious. It is necessary
because the measures of profitability and value that really matter to
shareholders depend on what remains after the tax authorities have taken
their part. It is tedious because of the intricacies of the tax regulations.
These vary from country to country, so your situation may well be different
from those we discuss here. You can find an example of recent tax and
investment issues in Alberta, Canada in the additional learning resources
at the end of the unit. A new government (after more than 40 years) has
said that it will overhaul the oil tax regime and companies are now
scrambling to determine how to deal with this in their investment
decisions. Fortunately, in the UK, the corporate tax system has recently
been overhauled and simplified as it affects investment appraisal.
Although these rules will vary by country, the following analysis will show
how you can incorporate different types of tax into DCF analysis.
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Analysis
It is best to show the treatment of tax by a building-block approach. We
look at a simple project:
The project
Outlay = £8m Discount rate = 10%
Lifespan = 3 years Tax rate = 28%
Scrap value = 0 WDA of 25% pa
(reducing balance)
Output volume = 10,000 units pa
Product price = £1,000
Variable cost = £400 per unit
Incremental overheads = £1m pa
Solution
Pre-tax cash flows:
YEAR 0 1 2 3
Outlay (8m)
Revenues 10m 10m 10m
Variable costs (4m) (4m) (4m)
Fixed costs (1m) (1m) (1m)
Pre-tax cash flows (8m) 5m 5m 5m
NPV of pre-tax cash flows
= – 8m + 5m*PVIFA (10, 3) = – 8m + 5m (2.487) = 4.43m
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This reduces the taxable profit by 20% of the net book value of the asset
on a declining balance basis and thus reduces the tax bill. It may help first
to set out the tax-allowable depreciation profile, for the outlay of £8m.
1 25% 8m = 2m – 6m
In reality, the tax relief may be available earlier. If the company has
sufficient profits from other operations, it may claim the WDA in year 0 – in
the year immediately before the project begins. In tax matters, a day can
make quite a difference! For simplicity, we assume that the WDA
claimable is as per the table above, although it would be useful for you to
project the profit for the alternative case.
Now complete the table below. You may want to put this in to a
spreadsheet to make the calculations more straightforward.
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YEAR 0 1 2 3
Pre-tax cash flow –8m +5m +5m +5m
WDA* (= reduction in taxable profit)
WDV of asset
Taxable income
Tax at 28%
Post-tax cash flows
Summary
In this unit, we have revised your understanding of the mechanics of
investment appraisal methods and extended the analysis to include
treatment of inflation and taxation. In the next unit, we will focus on
possible ways of handling imperfect information in investment decisions.
From now on, we assume that you have a thorough understanding of
investment appraisal methods!
Watch: Capital budgeting (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 4)
This short video will demonstrate how to perform the actual analysis
through some short examples of capital budgeting using Excel.
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 4).
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Choose one question from three different sections (chosen from FCF
estimation, growth rate, terminal value, discount rate and value of equity)
and clearly explain how you would answer the question. How do you think
that this could be dealt with when valuing a public company (as you will
have to do for your assignment)?
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References
Damodaran, A. (nd) 25 Questions on DCF Valuation (and my opinionated
answers). Damodaran Online: Stern School of Business at New York
University. http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_
Page/valquestions/valquestions.htm Accessed 1 June 2018.
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Unit 5:
Analysing Investment Risk
Key reading
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 7
Key video:
1. Sensitivity analysis (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 5 > Activity 5.2)
Other:
1. Unit 5 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 5) – Activity 5.4
3. Unit 5 live online tutorial (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Online
Tutorials > Activity 5.7)
Introduction
In the previous unit, our discussions of investment appraisals assumed
that all future cash flows were known for certain. In reality, this is rarely
true. In this unit, we will consider the problem of imperfect information and
examine some of the simpler (and commoner) methods of allowing for risk
and uncertainty.
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
understand the distinction between risk and uncertainty
apply a sensitivity analysis
use probabilities as an aid to investment appraisal.
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However, you should note that there is a technical difference between risk
and uncertainty.
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A Project uncertainty
Input/Supplier Output/Market Production Financial
Availability Demand Implementation Development
Quality Prices period costs
Price Market size Implementation Initial fixed costs
Market share complexity Variable costs
Market growth Output quantity Incremental
Competition Output quality fixed costs
Competitor Technical Financing costs
actions problems Revenues
Market familiarity Required rate of
return
Sources of
finance
Salvage value
Tax on project
profit
B Firm uncertainty
Strategy Strength Personnel
Corporate Resources Impact on staff morale,
strategy needed to gain absenteeism and turnover
Investment market share Strikes and stoppages
strategy Financial Wage demands, conditions of
Acquisition resources work
behaviour Earnings stability
Product/market Adequacy in
portfolio sales
Required rate of organisation
return Management skill
Technical ability
Financial
structure
Overall
competitive
advantages
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C Environmental uncertainty
Macroeconomic Technological Govt/Regulatory Foreign
Economic Newness Consumer laws Political stability
conditions Reliability Competition laws Relations with
Business cycle Safety Government trade host country
Foreign Project life policy Nationalisation
exchange rate Rate of Employment laws policies
Inflation rate technological Tax policies Host country
Interest rate development Grants attitude towards
Availability of projects
Safety regulations
finance Expropriation
Environmental
Shift in regulations Currency
population convertibility
Special
pattern government Ownership
programmes restriction
Capital and
trade flow
restriction
Availability of
local
management
Socio-economic
factors affecting
the project
Sensitivity analysis
Read: Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 7: 171–174
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Year 0 1 2
Outlay (£1,000)
Revenue £1,000 £1,400
Operating costs _______ (£500) (£600)
Net cash flow (£1,000) £500 £800
12% DF ___1___ 0.893 0.797
PV (£1,000) £446 £638
NPV = –£1,000 + £1,084 = +£84
On the basis of the above cash flows, the NPV is +£84. At what NPV does
doing the project become a matter of indifference to the company?
This occurs if the NPV = 0, where the project offers the same return as the
cost of finance. This is the point at which the project just breaks even. One
aim of sensitivity analysis is to find the break-even values of each variable.
Now let us look at each variable in turn, starting with outlay.
Outlay
By how much can the outlay increase before the project merely breaks
even? You should have realised that since the cost of the outlay is already
expressed in present value terms, any increase will directly reduce NPV.
£84
Therefore outlay can increase by 8.4%.
£1,000
Revenue
What happens to NPV if revenue falls by:
5%
10%?
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Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk
(Sensitivity analysis usually looks at variables one at a time and you can
make a table with the results, so outlay now returns to the original £1,000.)
Solution
Operating costs
What now happens if costs increase by 5%? Use the following table to set
out your answer.
5% increase
t0 t1 t2
Outlay
Revenue
Costs _______ _______ _______
Net CF
12% DF ___1___ 0.893 0.797
PV
NPV =
Discount rate
The sensitivity of this project to the discount rate is found by calculating
the IRR.
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Recall that, at a 12% discount rate, the NPV was +£84. Now discount at a
higher rate, say 20%.
Remember the NPV was + £84 for a 2-year life. For a 1-year life:
£500
NPV = – £1,000 +
1.2
Note that the procedure here is not ideal, mainly because we normally
assume end-year cash flows. Strictly, the answer is 2 years because after
1.87 years, only 1 year’s cash flow (year 1’s) will have been received. In
reality, of course, cash flows are usually received during the course of a
year.
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Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk
Watch: Sensitivity analysis (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 5 > Activity 5.2).
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Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk
NPV Probability
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Describing risk
The risk characteristics of an investment project are described by the
probability distribution of possible outcomes.
If you work out the standard deviation, you should find that it is 120 =
10.95.
Interpretation
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Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk
including the ‘4-in-6’ rule (see Figure 5.3). In a normal distribution, 68% of
observations lie in the range ENPV ± 1 standard deviation.
probability
x x x
19 ENPV = 30 41 NPV
Please note that continuous normal distributions are usually only found in
textbooks! When dealing with uncertainty, people only pinpoint a limited
number of key outcomes and assign intuitive estimates of possibility to
them. Given the uncertainties, it is not surprising that decision makers tend
to focus more strongly on the downside potential or the likelihood of
outcomes less than the expected values, and the consequences for the
company.
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Choice A is easy. For the same expected value, most people would opt for
the choice with the lowest risk, X. Choice B is also easy. For the same
risk, most people would go for the option with the highest ENPV, Z.
Choice C is more complex – W is potentially both more rewarding and
riskier. A risk averter is prepared to take on risk but only if suitably
compensated. The question is whether the extra 100 offered by W is worth
the extra risk (60 rather than 20). Would you be prepared to treble the risk
for double the return? Probably not.
Coefficient of variation
Risk 20 60
= = 0.2 for X and = 0.3 for W
ENPV 100 200
This reflects the number of units of risk you have to bear per unit of
return. Risk averters
would want tominimise risk per £ of return and would
therefore select the option with the lowest coefficient, which is X.
Decision trees
The information can be shown as a ‘tree’ with two main branches and four
stems or routes through the tree. The chance of following each route
through the tree is called a joint probability. The complete tree with
calculation of the ENPV is shown in Figure 5.4.
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Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk
Probabilities have to be assigned to the cash flows before they occur. This
inevitably is highly subjective.
Payoff A (ENPV) 8 10 12
Payoff B (ENPV) 20 25 30
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Summary
In this unit, we have focused on the issue of managing risk in the context
of investment decisions. In particular, the two methods, i.e. sensitivity
analysis and the use of probability, have been discussed. It is important to
realise that neither of these methods are perfect. They are simply ways of
trying to explore the risk characteristics of a project in order to understand
its dynamics more clearly. In the next unit, we begin to examine the other
key decision area of corporate finance, the financing decision, beginning
with an examination of the place of working capital management in
financial planning.
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Unit 5: Analysing Investment Risk
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 5).
Read the article and then answer the following question. Note that the
resources section at the end of this paper also has some excellent
resources for further study on this topic. (You will need to register with
IFAC to do so, but it is relatively straightforward and free.)
Imagine an investment or project which your firm (or another firm) might
want to undertake in the next year. What information do you need to apply
the methods presented in this paper to an NPV or valuation calculation?
What are the key strategic factors which will inform your decisions on
whether or not to proceed with the investment or project?
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Read: Online Live Tutorial 3 Case (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Online Tutorials > Activity 5.7)
Your tutor will email a copy of the material that you need to prepare for this
tutorial at least one week before the tutorial date.
Read the case and answer the questions provided. You will need to use a
spreadsheet such as Excel to solve the problem.
Live online tutorial: To access the tutorial, please go to: Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Online Tutorials > Activity 5.7 – live online
tutorial. For support and information about Canvas online tutorials, please
go to: https://community.canvaslms.com/docs/DOC-10503-4212627661.
References
International Federation of Accountants (2013) Project and Investment
Appraisal for Sustainable Value Creation.
https://www.ifac.org/publications-resources/project-and-investment-
appraisal-sustainable-value-creation-1 Accessed 1 June 2018.
98 Bradford MBA
Unit 6:
Financing Decisions
Key reading
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapters 13 and 14 on risk and treasury
management and working capital and short-term asset management,
Chapter 16 on sources of long-term finance, and Chapters 18 and 19
on capital structure decisions.
2. Davidoff, S.M. (2011) Why IPOs Get Underpriced. New York Times,
27 May (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module Materials >
Unit 6 > Activity 6.8)
2. Capital Structure (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 6 > Activity 6.5)
Other:
1. Unit 6 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 6) – Activity 6.6
Introduction
You will remember that the two key decision areas of corporate finance –
and, hence, the fundamental drivers of value – are investment decisions
and financing decisions. These decisions involve deciding what to spend
and how to pay for it. Having looked at the first issue in the previous units,
the focus shifts in this unit to methods of raising finance. However, this is
not merely a checklist of advantages and disadvantages of different
financing methods – it is set in the context of financing strategy. To make
sensible financial decisions, companies must have coherent financial
strategies and clear financial policies to make these operational. We will
also clarify the relationship between long-term and short-term financing
and stress the role of efficient working capital management in pursuit of
shareholder value.
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Study Book: Corporate Finance
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
understand the principles of financial planning and different financing
strategies
examine the case for short-term versus long-term financing
investigate the role of working capital management in financial planning
examine the case for debt versus equity financing
advise on alternative ways of raising equity finance, including rights
issues.
Financial planning
Read: Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 13: 331–336
Cumulative
capital
requirement
Time
Year 1 Year 2
Figure 6.1 shows possible long-term financing paths which a firm might
follow.
Path A Always above the CCR. The firm has a permanent cash surplus
– it is over-capitalised. This is a very conservative financing
policy.
While helpful, this picture of financing needs and policies is rather limited
in what it shows. In particular:
it says nothing about the composition of long-term liabilities, whether
they are in debt or equity form
it says nothing about the relationship between fixed and current assets
and how they are financed.
Read the example below and note down answers to the questions that
follow.
The sales of Devon plc for the year 2012 were £100,000. Sales for 2013
are expected to rise by 20% to £120,000. You are to advise on the
additional financing required to support the higher level of sales. Its
summary balance sheet as at 31 December 2012 is:
£ £
Ordinary shares 22,000 Fixed assets (net) 32,000
Retained earnings 15,000 Stock 16,000
Debentures 10,000 Debtors 8,000
Trade creditors 11,000 Cash 2,000
58,000 58,000
Devon plc earnings in 2012 before interest and tax were 15% of sales.
This was after deducting depreciation of £6,000. The depreciation charge
for 2013 is expected to remain the same. The interest rate on the
debentures is 10%. The corporate tax rate is 50%, and the company
distributes 40% of available earnings as dividends.
Question 3: Estimate how much new external finance Devon plc is likely
to require during 2013.
However, although this is prudent, not all firms adhere to this principle. Let
us look at some exceptions.
2. Asset permanence
Total Permanent
permanent financing
assets
Fixed assets
1 2 3 4 5 6 Years
Total
Fluctuating current assets Short-term
financing
assets (£)
Total Permanent
permanent financing
assets
Fixed assets
1 2 3 4 5 6 Years
Firms which are concerned about the relatively greater cost of long-term
finance may decide to run the risks of heavy use of short-term methods
such as a bank overdraft. This is shown in Figure 6.4.
Total Short-term
assets (£) financing
Fluctuating current assets
Total Permanent
permanent financing
assets
Fixed assets
1 2 3 4 5 6 Years
Flexibility
Short-term debt is usually more flexible.
2. When interest rates are ‘high’ and expected to fall, it may be better to
borrow short and refinance long at lower rates in the future. (But how
well can you – or anyone – forecast interest rates?)
Risk-aversion of managers
Risk-averse managers are likely to use a higher proportion of long-term
debt even though it reduces profitability.
These are the main components of current assets and current liabilities.
CASH
D A
Customers settle accounts Supplies purchased and
goods produced (£2,000)
DEBTORS STOCK
C B
The firm begins with cash holdings of £1,000 but needs £2,000 to support
the production cycle. This takes a month, after which customers are found.
Creditors will offer one month’s credit.
Goods to the value of £5,000 are produced and sold to customers who
are given two months’ credit.
The cash conversion cycle is the length of time elapsing between paying
out cash and getting it back from customers. To measure it, we need to
compute the three key working capital ratios.
Debtor days/Debtor collection period
Debtors
Number of days in year
Sales
Creditor days/Trade credit period
Trade Creditors
Number of days in year
Purchases
Stock period/Stock turnover
Stock
Number of days in year
Cost of sales
We can use these to obtain the cash conversion cycle (or working
capital cycle)
This video clip will reinforce your understanding of bonds and stocks.
Retentions/cash flow
(Internal equity)
A Equity
Rights issues
(External equity)
Bank overdrafts
B Debt
1 Non-market Debt
Term loans
Convertibles, etc.
Retentions
Rights issue
The discount has the effect of diluting the earnings of each existing share,
(although this is partly offset by the value of the greater cash holding by
the company). This effect is explained in the table below.
If rights issues are not necessarily good news, why do companies not
simply cut dividends when faced with a worthwhile investment
opportunity?
This is very rarely done! Dividend cuts, rightly or wrongly, are regarded as
the ultimate sign of financial incompetence. Shareholders have bought the
shares in expectation of a steadily rising stream of dividends over time. If
the dividends are cut, this betrays the concealed information that
management (which has far more information about the company than
investors in general) expect poor trading conditions in the future and are
concerned about conserving cash resources. Occasionally, firms can
persuade the market that a lower dividend is required to finance really
worthwhile projects, but it requires very good financial PR!
It is important to know the following terms. Although you may have learned
them either through the Business Accounting module or this module, you
need to make sure you can define them.
2. dividend yield
4. P:E ratio
6. scrip dividend
Debt finance
A company which is unwilling to cut dividends or to make a rights issue
has only two alternatives if it wants to raise finance: it can sell assets, for
example, via a sale-and-leaseback, or it can borrow.
Borrowing has a major drawback – if the firm fails to make the annual
interest payment, the creditors can appoint a receiver to liquidate the
company in order to force the repayment of their capital. A heavily
indebted company is thus running the risk that in a bad trading year it may
be forced into insolvency. Bankruptcy and financial distress carry very
heavy costs! However, there are major benefits with borrowing that astute
financial managers can exploit.
It is relatively cheap to raise. Unlike a rights issue, underwriting is not
normally required. A debenture issue can be syndicated among several
banks and other lenders who, by spreading their risk, can offer lower
interest rates.
In a rights issue, there is the danger of loss of voting control if shares
are acquired by the underwriters. With debt, there are no voting rights.
Therefore, the only diminution in control is imposed by the incorporation
of restrictive covenants in the loan agreement, for example, restrictions
on liquidity, or on dividend policy, to safeguard the interests of creditors.
Interest payments are tax-allowable generating a valuable tax shield
(although this is only of value to the tax-paying company).
Gearing can have a large effect on shareholder earnings. This will be
discussed in the gearing and company value section in the next unit.
Measuring gearing
Borrowing gears up the capital structure. It results in a higher proportion of
capital being in the form of debt which must be serviced regardless of
insolvency. This is one measure of financial gearing, in this case, capital
gearing. The commonest measure of capital gearing is:
This can be measured using book values – the figures in the accounts – or
at market values. Some people prefer the latter because it is more up to
date, although others prefer to use book values for reasons of prudence.
In times of financial distress, firms that need to sell assets to repay debts
are unlikely to achieve what they thought was market value. In addition,
until you try to sell, you don’t know the market value! Some people prefer
to include short-term borrowing on the basis that this too imposes
obligatory interest payments, and this seems sensible for companies that
make extensive use of overdrafts. Against this, it seems ‘fair’ to allow for
cash holdings, which offset the impact of short-term borrowing.
Increasingly common is the net debt measure of financial gearing:
The capital gearing measure, being derived from the balance sheet,
purports to indicate the company’s ability to repay debts by selling assets
should the need arise. However, the ‘first line of defence’ where the strain
of borrowing is first revealed, is in the profit and loss account, or income
statement.
PBIT
Interest charges
Thus, the greater the number of times the firm is able to make its interest
payments, the better from the safety perspective. Alternatively, income
gearing is expressed by inverting the expression for interest cover:
Interest charges
PBIT
Operating gearing
The effects of gearing are rather more subtle in practice than we have
suggested above. Even firms with no borrowings are geared through their
methods of production and operation. These dictate the balance between
variable costs and the fixed costs which have to be met if the firm is to stay
in production in the long term. Whereas financial (capital) gearing refers to
the proportion of the firm’s capital structure accounted for by borrowing,
operating gearing refers to the proportion of the firm’s costs that are
fixed. A firm with high fixed costs will generally have a high
break-even point. As a result, it is usually argued that such firms should
not borrow excessively, if at all.
Summary
In this unit, we have discussed the ways in which a company can be
financed, with particular emphasis on both short-term and long-term
financing. Although we have emphasised the various types of financial
strategy which a firm may adopt, it is essential that you appreciate the
relationship between working capital management and company financing,
and that, to some degree at least, funds can be obtained from more
efficient management of debtors, stock and short-term creditors. Certainly,
any prospective provider of long-term finance will look carefully at this
aspect.
Listen to: Capital Structure (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 6 > Activity 6.5)
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > Multiple-Choice
Questions > Unit 6).
Read: Davidoff, S.M. (2011) Why IPOs Get Underpriced. New York Times,
27 May (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 6)
Question 1: What are some of the reasons that people give for believing
that IPOs are consistently underpriced?
References
Davidoff, S.M. (2011) Why IPOs get Underpriced. New York Times,
27 May. https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/05/27/why-i-p-o-s-get-
underpriced/?mcubz=3 Accessed 1 June 2018.
Key reading
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 3 on valuing shares, Chapters 18 and 19,
and Chapter 9 on the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
2. Ghoul, S.E.I., Guedhami, O., Kwok, C.C.Y. and Mishra, D.R. (2011)
Does corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital? Journal of
Banking and Finance 35, 2388–2406 (Canvas > Dashboard > Module
Tile > Module Materials > Unit 7 > Activity 7.10)
Key video:
1. Phillip (2008) Beta Calculation on Excel. YouTube, 2 March (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 7 > Activity 7.3)
2. Estimating WACC (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 7 > Activity 7.4)
Other:
1. Unit 7 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 7) – Activity 7.6
3. Unit 7 live online tutorial (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Online
Tutorials > Activity 7.12)
Introduction
A critical issue in corporate finance is the rate of return required on both
the company’s existing operations and also on new investment projects. If
the managers are unable to achieve a return at least as great as the
minimum required by the firm’s owners, then obviously there are some
serious problems! Either they need to restructure company operations to
achieve greater efficiency or they step aside to make way for a more
dynamic management team. Knowledge of this required return is needed
both for valuing the company as it stands and also for assessing the value
of any new operations, which should enhance the value of the corporate
whole. More specifically, the required return dictates the discount rate
applicable to cash flows anticipated from new investments.
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
calculate the cost of debt finance, before and after corporate taxation
use the dividend valuation model to assess the cost of equity
estimate the cost of equity using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM)
understand the case for shareholders forming a well-diversified portfolio
of shares, and the implications of this for the cost of equity
show the impact of using debt finance on the required return
grasp the impact of gearing up the capital structure on the value of the
whole company.
Cost of debt
Read: Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 18: 537–539
coupon rate
Market value = Par value
market rate
Imagine the going rate set by the bond market for securities of this degree
of risk rises to 10%. This would make the debenture look bad value if it
were still traded at par, yielding just 8%, when newly issued securities
would be offering a yield of 10%. People would be unwilling to buy the old
debenture unless its price fell to equate its yield with the market rate. This
is roughly (note that these are very simplistic calculations – bond price
movements and yield calculations are beyond the scope of this course):
8%
£100 = £80
10%
8% x £100
At this price, its yield = = 10%
£80
This is the market’s way of telling the company that it faces a cost of debt
which is really 10%. If it wanted to raise further debt capital, it would have
to offer the going interest rate of 10%. Strictly, the above formula only
works for irredeemable or very long-term bonds. The nearer the bond is to
maturity, i.e. the repayment date, the more its value is dictated by the final
lump sum payable rather than the annual interest.
The return offered to shareholders should at least match what they could
achieve elsewhere for a similar amount of risk or what they have been
offered in the past. This is because they incur an opportunity cost in
leaving their money invested in the company, as it could be invested in
some other company.
One way of assessing this cost is to look at the achieved return on equity
(remember that equity is the same as net assets and shareholders’ funds)
and compare it with what is currently on offer in the industry concerned. It
is better to benchmark against the whole industry rather than against
individual firms in order to even out the effect of inter-firm differences in
products and markets, etc.
Last year, XYZ earned profit after tax (PAT) of £15m. Extracts from its
balance sheet are shown below.
£m
Fixed assets (net) 85
Net current assets 30
Long-term creditors (20)
Net assets 95
Issued share capital 20
Reserves 75
Shareholders’ funds 95
Many people prefer to use the DVM. The value of a share is given by the
sum of all discounted returns from holding it, i.e. all future dividends. If we
observe how the market values a company, we may infer the rate of return
that shareholders are seeking from it, that is, the rate of discount that is
implicitly being used by the market to discount future dividends (ke). The
DVM formula is:
P0 = share price = D0 ( 1+ g ) = D1
ke - g ke - g
ke = D1 + g
P0
Suggest some problems in using the DVM to assess the cost of equity.
Types of risk
The critical concept of the CAPM is the distinction between two quite
different types of risk.
Firm-specific risk is the variability in the returns from holding shares of
a company resulting from factors peculiar to that company, for example,
vagaries of the markets in which the firm sells its product, labour
problems and progress with R&D programmes. As these aspects are
specific to the individual firm, they can be diversified away by forming a
portfolio of securities from different industries. When some companies
in the portfolio do badly, the effects are counterbalanced by others that
are doing well. This source of risk is also called unsystematic or
diversifiable risk.
Systematic or relevant risk relates to variability in returns stemming
from macro-factors, both political and economic, which impact on the
fortunes of all firms, such as interest and exchange rate changes. As
such factors impact on the stock market as a whole, they will be
reflected in movements of the market index (or market portfolio). The
impact of these factors cannot be diversified by portfolio formation
although the extent of the impact may vary between companies. This is
also called market risk.
As an investor builds in more and more securities into his or her portfolio,
the overall risk (for example, measured by the standard deviation of
returns) diminishes as specific risk is reduced. Market risk cannot be
removed (except by diversifying into the stock markets of other countries
or into other asset classes.) It is suggested that an investor needs 25 or so
securities – spread across a variety of industrial sectors – in order to
exploit the major part of the risk-reducing potential of diversification.
reflects the extent to which the return (including both dividend and capital
appreciation) on the security varies in response to, or in association with
variations in the overall market returns. Observations are made of
variations in both stock and market returns over a period of time and a
regression line is fitted to the resulting scatter of points. The slope of the
line best fitting that scatter is the beta, or beta coefficient.
Using your knowledge of regression analysis, determine the line of best fit
and hence the beta value from the following data.
You should find that the regression line is a perfect fit with slope of 1.2!
A beta of 1.2 means that when the stock market offers a return of, say,
10%, this security on average can be expected to earn a return of 12%.
Hence, movements in the return on this stock generally outweigh
movements in the return on the market (in both directions). Such a stock is
said to be aggressive. A defensive stock has a beta of less than one. In
this example, because every observation lies on the line of best fit,
variations in the market return due to factors affecting all firms perfectly
explain variations in the return on the company in question. In other words,
all risk is attributable to systematic risk.
ERj = Rf + j [ERm – Rf ]
The term in the square brackets [ERm – Rf] is called the market risk
premium – in other words how much extra return should be expected for
investing in a risky asset rather than the risk-free rate. In practice, this is
what we generally estimate (rather than the expected return on the
market). You can find more information on estimating this premium in the
additional learning resources at the end of this unit.
(ii) the risk-free rate, usually taken to be the return on very short-dated
government stock such as Treasury bills (for the UK).
(iii) the expected excess return on the whole stock market over the risk-
free rate, called the equity premium. Generally, the historical
premium of around 5–7% is taken for this purpose, although the
investor may prefer to take a (subjective) view on the future course
of the market. Various studies have shown that this premium is
remarkably similar from country to country, and over time.
The resulting rate is appropriate for evaluating cash flows from activities
whose risk parallels the existing (systematic) risk of the company. For
activities of differing degrees of risk, the beta of a comparable company
operating in the area of intended investment should be used.
Using these figures, we can see how use of debt affects the required
return on investment. In Case 1, with zero gearing, the company has to
achieve a return of 20% (or more) on new projects, as this is the return
being sought by shareholders.
In Case 2, assuming its shareholders also want a 20% return, the overall
required return becomes a weighted average of the component required
returns. Thus the cost of each type of finance is weighted according to its
contribution to the overall capital structure. Thus, so long as the firm
At a gearing of 25%, the weights are 75% equity and 25% debt and the
WACC is:
This is the minimum rate of return required to keep all investors happy. A
WACC less than 20% means that a wider range of projects now becomes
available to the company and there is greater scope for creating value.
The lower discount rate applied to projects as part of the capital
investment appraisal process will give higher NPVs (in most cases) and
make some projects with a negative NPV at 20% positive at a rate of
17.5%.
Watch: Estimating WACC (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 7)
Debt = 0
Profit before tax = £20m
Shareholders’ funds = £100m
(par value = £1)
(Assume no corporate tax for simplicity)
Earnings per share = 20p
P:E ratio = 5
Share price = (5 20p) = £1
The buyback: The company borrows £25m debt in order to replace 25m
ordinary shares (interest rate = 10%). There are no other changes in either
operating or financial policy.
Cost of
capital
Cost of equity
WACC
Cost of debt
*
Financial distress
The top section of Figure 7.1 paints quite a remarkable picture – it
suggests that a company can keep raising its value by gearing up the
capital structure! However, this situation must end as both lenders and
shareholders come to question the company’s ability to maintain ever-
Can you list some of the direct and indirect costs a company may incur as
it approaches or reaches financial insolvency?
Summary
In this unit, we have covered a lot of ground. We have looked at the costs
of debt and equity respectively, and have shown how to combine them in
assessing the overall rate of return for a company financed by a mixture of
debt and equity – the WACC. This led on to our discussion of some
benefits of combining debt and equity, in particular, a lower cost of capital
and higher equity value. However, capital market imperfections associated
with financial distress and insolvency can offset the net benefits from
leverage due to taxes and agency costs.
£m
£1 ordinary shares 60
Retained profit 40
150
Director A believes that the cost of capital should be used and that the
appropriate figure, in this case, is the cost of long-term loan capital. He
argues that, as the funds employed for the venture will be raised from this
source, this represents the actual cost of funds used.
Director B also believes that the cost of capital should be used. However,
she argues that the weighted average cost of capital should be used as
this represents the overall cost of funds used by the company.
Director C believes that the risks associated with the venture are higher
than those of the existing business in which the company is engaged and,
as the proposed investment is large, a risk-adjusted discount rate should
be used. Brealey’s beta coefficient is 0.8.
In your calculations you should assume that the current rate of return on
government long-term bonds is 6% and the rate of corporation tax is 25%.
A leading security analyst expects the FTSE Index to yield an average
overall return of 12% in the foreseeable future.
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 7).
Read: Ghoul, S.E.I., Guedhami, O., Kwok, C.C.Y. and Mishra, D.R. (2011)
Does corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital? Journal of
Banking and Finance 35, 2388–2406 (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile
> Module Materials > Unit 7).
Task 1: Briefly outline different methods for calculating the cost of capital
for a firm.
Task 2: Compare and contrast the results of this article with the article that
you read in Unit 1.
Read: Online Live Tutorial 4 (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Online
Tutorials > Activity 7.12).
Read the case and answer the questions provided. You will need to use a
spreadsheet such as Excel to solve the problem.
Live online tutorial: To access the tutorial, please go to: Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Online Tutorials > Activity 7.11 – live online
tutorial. For support and information about Canvas online tutorials, please
go to: https://community.canvaslms.com/docs/DOC-10503-4212627661.
Fernandez, P., Ortiz Pizarro, A., P. and Fernández Acín, I. (2016) Market
Risk Premium Used in 88 Countries in 2014: A Survey with 6,932. Social
Science Research Network. http://ssrn.com/abstract=2776636 Accessed 1
June 2018.
References
Ghoul, S.E.I., Guedhami, O., Kwok, C.C.Y. and Mishra, D.R. (2011) Does
corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital? Journal of Banking
and Finance 35, 2388–2406.
Key reading:
1. Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 17. You will find that the dividend valuation
model covered in Chapter 3, Section 8 and the total shareholder return
in Chapter 9, Section 3 also apply here.
Key video:
1. Wall St Training Self-Study (2008) WST: Share Repurchase Part 1.
YouTube, 8 July (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile > Module
Materials > Unit 8 > Activity 8.4)
Other:
1. Unit 8 multiple-choice questions (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Formative Exercises > MCQs > Unit 8) – Activity 8.6
Introduction
Throughout this module, we have emphasised that the focus of corporate
finance is on value creation. We have placed relatively little stress on the
issue of how to deliver this wealth to shareholders. When a company is
already profitable and has good future prospects, wealth has been
created but how should this wealth be delivered? It could be in the form of
annual dividends to shareholders or as further capital appreciation. At the
outset, you should be able to see a paradox here. If high dividends are
paid, the company may have insufficient capital to finance future growth –
although this implies some deficiency in the capital market’s ability to
supply finance for worthwhile projects. Conversely, too low a level of
dividend may starve investors of ready income and may even give the
impression that the company is highly risky. High retention and high
liquidity may signal that the company expects difficult trading conditions in
the future, and wants to build a financial cushion.
You will find that this issue of signalling dominates analysis of dividend
decisions. For example, if a company raises its dividend, it may convey the
Running through this introduction is the notion that dividend decisions, like
any other financial decision, convey information. They are said to have
information content. Managers are generally reluctant to convey too
much ‘hard’ information for understandable commercial reasons, so the
market seizes on what information is available and interprets this
accordingly (and sometimes wrongly). This underscores the need for care
in releasing financial information.
Objectives
By the end of this unit, you should be able to:
describe how shareholders receive their overall returns
evaluate the argument of dividend irrelevance
argue the question of why companies pay dividends at all
identify the key determinants of dividend policy.
For example: in 2009, XYZ plc paid a dividend of 10p per share and its
share price grew from £1.89 on 1 January to £2.07p on 31 December.
What was the TSR in 2009?
D
(i) percentage dividend yield t = 10p =5.3%
SP 189p
t
Over half of the return (as typically applies) is in the form of capital
appreciation.
Can you identify any limitations with this way of looking at shareholder
returns? For further information on this way of considering shareholder
returns go to p.208 in the textbook.
ABC plc has the following set of projects available to invest in. Its WACC is
20%. How much dividend should it pay? Retained earnings, held as cash,
are £90,000.
Notice that ABC could finance all these projects internally, but F is
unattractive. So projects A–E would be recommended, requiring a total
outlay of £80,000, leaving £10,000 available for dividend payment. If the
IRR on project E was less than 20%, the dividend would be £20,000.
Notice that there may be problems in cases where projects are indivisible
like this.
Dividend cuts
Under this view, it may even be advisable to cut the dividend if worthwhile
projects are available. Consider the following case.
A company will operate for three further years.
Shareholders seek a 10% return.
On present policies, its expected end-year cash flows are:
– £100 year 1
– £100 year 2
– £100 year 3
All cash flows are usually paid as dividends.
It now proposes a new venture which involves:
– retention of year 1 earnings
– investment in a one-year project with a single cash flow of £120
– reversion to 100% pay-out in year 2.
Solution
(i.e. it is acceptable)
Shareholder wealth
Shareholder wealth
£100 £20
= 0 + +
0.1 0.1
Shareholder wealth
Since the wealth of shareholders is the same under each alternative, the
method of finance is irrelevant. Hence, whether the company pays a
dividend or not is immaterial.
Dividend relevance
The previous conclusion on dividend irrelevancy may sound perfectly
logical in theory (it is!) but what ‘practical’ objections would you make
about this notion?
5. If in the past, the company has used the dividend decision to convey
information, news of a dividend cut will not be greeted with equanimity.
For these reasons, dividends may be highly relevant! We will now deal
with these objections to dividend irrelevance.
£0 – £31,785 20%
For capital gains, the rate of tax depends on how long the asset is held
for. The rate of tax declines with the holding period; inflation-indexing is
applied to the period 2015–2016; and the first £11,100 of gain is exempt
from tax. With careful planning, capital gains tax can often be avoided
altogether – remember, you only pay it when you realise the gain,
whereas income tax on dividend payments is paid automatically by the
company distributing the dividend.
This 8-minute video clip will provide a brief discussion on dividend policies
adopted during the recent banking crisis.
1. The time preference of the shareholding body and thus their relative
preferences for income now against future income as governed by
factors such as their age profile.
2. The relative tax efficiency of dividends and capital gains – for example,
a predominance of non-taxpayers might suggest orientation towards
relatively high pay-outs.
With such a policy, the dividend would be smoothed and the company
would pay regular and steady increases even though earnings per share
may fluctuate. This would leave the pay-out ratio to rise and fall with
variations in reported earnings.
Share buybacks
Read: Pike et al. (2015), Chapter 17: 508–516
Summary
In many ways, the ground covered in this unit represents the most
fascinating aspect of corporate finance – having created wealth, how
should a company deliver that wealth to its owners?
£m
Reserves 130
Further information
The last dividend paid by Phoenix was 1.50 pence per share.
Question 1: Calculate the dividend payout ratios and dividend covers for
both 2009–10 and for the reporting year 2010–11, if the dividend is raised
as proposed.
The multiple-choice questions for this unit will enable you to test your
knowledge and understanding of the key concepts covered (Canvas >
Dashboard > Module Tile > Formative Exercises > Multiple-Choice
Questions > Unit 8).
Read: Mauboussin, M.J. (2012) Share Repurchase from All Angles. Legg
Mason Capital Management (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile >
Module Materials > Unit 8 > Activity 8.8)
Why do firms engage in buybacks? Address this question from the point of
view of company executives, prospective shareholders, current
shareholders and the media.
Allen, M., Oded, J. and Shaked, I. (2010) Not all buybacks are created
equal: the case of accelerated stock repurchases. Financial Analysts
Journal 66(6), 55–72.
References
Mauboussin, M.J. (2012) Share Repurchase from All Angles. Legg Mason
Capital Management. https://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/
MauboussinOnStrategyShareRepurchaseFromAllAngles_MIPX014745.pdf
Accessed 1 June 2018.
Key video:
1. A Conclusion to MBA Corporate Finance (Canvas > Dashboard >
Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 9) – Activity 9.1
2. Unit 9 – Advice on the Assignment (Canvas > Dashboard > Module Tile
> Module Materials > Unit 9)
In this unit, we will briefly revise the main topics that you have covered in
the module.
The video gives an overall picture of the module and the main areas that
have been covered.
dividend policy, thus attracting a clientele of investors for whom that policy
is suitable, and then adhere to that policy over time.
Advice on assignment
Watch and listen: Advice on the Assignment (Canvas > Dashboard >
Module Tile > Module Materials > Unit 9)
There is a short video and a short audio recording with some advice on
how to complete the assignment successfully. Good luck!
Module Credit: 10
Module Occurrence: A
Additional Tutor(s):
Corequisite(s): None
Module aims
To consolidate and develop students’ knowledge of financial decision-
making and to promote an understanding of how capital markets operate,
how companies are valued and how markets shape the financial
manager’s operating context.
2. Subject-specific skills:
Outline syllabus
Unit 1
Activity 1.2
For example, consider the joint venture between Fiat and Chrysler, where
Fiat expanded into North America by using Chrysler manufacturing depots
and Chrysler does the same in Europe using Fiat manufacturing depots.
The investment decision relates to assessing the viability of the joint
venture. The financing decision relates to how best to fund the joint
venture, and the short-term capital management decision relates to the
best way to ensure that both firms have enough liquidity to manage the
expansion without running out of cash.
Activity 1.3
Activity 1.4
1. Organisational objectives
The main function of public enterprise is to serve the public interest. In the
case of a water undertaking, it would be responsible for ensuring a safe
and reliable supply of water to households at an affordable price, which
would also require close attention to control of operating and distribution
costs. Prior to privatisation, UK public enterprises were also expected to
achieve a target rate of return on capital which struck a balance between
the going rate in the private sector and the long-term perspective involved
in such operations. The authority would also have faced political
constraints on achieving its objectives in the form of pressure to keep
water charges down and also periodic restrictions on capital expenditure.
31% by 2008. This suggests dividend per share has grown by slightly
less than earnings per share (EPS). The pro forma EPS was 21p rising
by 210% to 65p, an average annual increase of about 21%. This
suggests the company broadly wishes to align dividend increases to
increases in EPS over time.
Share price – Since the share price is not given for 2004 and 2008, we
need to estimate it using the data available. In this case, in 2004 the
EPS was 29p and the P:E ratio was 7, so the price per share was
7 29 = 203p per share. In 2008 the P:E ratio was 7.5 and the earnings
(profit after tax) was 65p per share, so the estimated value was
7.5 65 = 487.5p per share.
Next, we are told that on the first day of issue, the final price is 160p (up
from the £1 issue price). So the percentage increase is given by:
488/160 – 1 = 205%.
ii) Workforce
Via its pricing policy – NEW’s revenues have risen by 38% in nominal
terms and 30% in real terms. This questions the company’s degree of
responsibility in cooperating with the government’s anti-inflationary
policy.
Via its pay policy – There is evidence that NEW has held down rates of
pay, but if this has not been reflected in a restrained pricing policy, then
the benefits accrue to shareholders rather than to society at large.
Moreover, the rapid increase in directors’ emoluments is hardly anti-
inflationary, providing signals to the labour force which are likely to sour
industrial relations.
Unit 2
Activity 2.1
Activity 2.2
7. This is also information already known to the market, and besides, this
variable tends to change only gradually. Even when changes in life
Activity 2.3
If these rules ever applied, investors would have soon realised the
potential, and would have bought in November rather in advance of the
expected price increase in December, thus creating a ‘November effect’,
and so on. Try the same argument on the old stock market advice ‘Sell in
May, and go away, and come back on St Leger Day’ (the date of a horse
race in the UK).
Many statistical tests have shown that all such dealing rules are usually
inferior, and never superior, to a simple ‘buy and hold’ strategy.
Activity 2.5
– This will lower B’s value by £1m to £9m or £1.8 per share.
Value/Share
Day 2 No new information A £1 B £2
Unit 3
Activity 3.1
1. This is simply the value of the total assets, i.e. £7.2 million. To obtain
ownership of the whole company’s assets, Shark would have to pay at
least this amount.
= £5.6m
£5.6m
= =£1.12
5m
2. In this example, the bidder would have to pay £5.6 million to the
owners, but to complete the deal, it would also have to either pay off the
liabilities of £1.6 million or assume responsibility for them. Obviously,
you cannot normally expect to buy assets worth a total of [£3.5m +
£3.7m] = £7.2 million for just £5.6 million.
Activity 3.2
Assuming Shark is in the same industry, we could use its P:E ratio to value
Minnow’s earnings. Minnow’s profit after tax is £1.5m, but £0.3m was due
to an exceptional item. Removing this one-off event, we have
‘maintainable earnings’ of [£1.5m – £0.3m =] £1.2 million. With a P:E ratio
of 10:1, the value of Minnow’s earnings, and hence its equity, is
[10 £1.2m =] £12 million.
Activity 3.4
1. To find cash flow, we have to add back non-cash items to profit after tax
(PAT), primarily depreciation:
This is known as the free cash flow – cash flow free of all obligations
including ongoing replacement investment requirements. Thus it is free
for disposal by the directors by discretionary strategic investment and/or
dividend payments.
2. Basically two factors are required: a discount rate and a time period.
For illustration, we assume a 20% return required by shareholders and
a 10-year time span.
The valuation
Note that this assumes no residual value of the company at the end of
10 years. Obviously, other assumptions will yield different results.
Unit 4
Activity 4.1
Activity 4.3
DCF methods remedy all the major drawbacks of the other methods.
DCF methods are not totally problem-free.
NPV is the best available method because of its clear signal regarding
wealth creation, but IRR remains popular with business people who
often prefer to work in percentage terms.
In reality, firms often use a combination of methods; perhaps payback
to ‘screen’ projects, then NPV or IRR for a more rigorous appraisal.
ARR is least popular as a primary appraisal method, although many
firms are still concerned about the effect of a project on accounting
measures of performance – the profit and loss account and the balance
sheet.
All methods are heavily reliant on the quantity and quality of data input.
Information is not cost-free. Sometimes, firms may economise on data
collection and rely on less rigorous methods.
Finally, there is no evidence that use of allegedly ‘sophisticated’
evaluation methods like DCF is associated with superior company
performance. This suggests that quality of project identification,
development and operation is more important than the rigour of the
evaluation method.
Activity 4.4
Thus the return that rational lenders require net of inflation is about
4.4%.
Activity 4.5
Year 0 1 2 3
Pre-tax cash flow (1) (8m) +5m +5m +5m
WDA (2m) (1.5m) (4.5m)
(= reduction in taxable profit) (2)
WDV of asset (end year) (3) 6m 4.5m 0
Taxable income (4) = (1) – (2) 3m 3.5m 0.5m
Tax at 28% (5) (0.84m) (0.98m) (0.14m)
Post-tax cash flows (1) – (5) (8m) 4.16m 4.02m 4.86m
PV at 10% = (8m) 3.78m 3.32m 3.65m
As you can see, the NPV of the project rises sharply compared to the ‘tax-
only’ case – by £0.95m. By implication, this is the present value of the tax
savings generated by the writing-down allowance. The total value tax
reliefs amount to £8m 28% = £2.24m, but of course, these are spread
out over time and thus have a lower present value. The quicker a
company can exploit tax reliefs, the better. A temporarily unprofitable
company would have to carry forward the tax relief thus reducing its
present value.
Unit 5
Activity 5.1
5% increase
t0 t1 t2
Outlay (1000)
Revenue 1000 1400
Costs (525) (630)
Net CF (1000) 475 770
12% DF ___1___ 0.893 0.797
PV (1,000) 425 614
NPV = + 39
The project is less sensitive to the same specified percentage (5%) cost
increase.
Activity 5.3
% Volume
outcome
above
Price
expection
Base case
Best estimate 0
0.8m NPV
-6.3%
% -21%
outcome
below
expection
Unit 6
Activity 6.1
Forecast P and L £
Sales (£100,000 20%) 120,000
COGS (85% of sales) (102,000)
Operating profit 18,000
Less:
Interest (10% £10,000) (1,000)
Taxable profit 17,000
Corporate tax @ 50% (8,500)
PAT 8,500
Dividend (40% PAT) (3,400)
Retained profit 5,100
Cash flow
Retained profit 5,100
Depreciation 6,000
11,100
Activity 6.2
Stock period
400
= 365 = 122 days
1200
2. The interest charge is 20% £800 = £160. Debtor days are now 91
days – if speeded up by 40%, they would become 55 days with average
debtor value of £300. Quicker collection could lead to a lower overdraft
by £200, enabling lower interest of 20% £200 = £40. This raises profit
after interest:
Activity 6.4
3. The dividend cover indicates the number of times the company could
afford to pay out its net dividend from its post-tax profits. It thus purports
to measure the degree of security of the dividend payments, by
suggesting the extent to which profits can fall before endangering the
dividend.
The pay-out ratio is simply the inverse of the dividend cover and
shows the proportion of a company’s post-tax profits actually paid out
as dividends (net). In other words, it is the dividend per share divided by
the earnings per share:
DPS
EPS
where EPS is the profit after tax divided by the number of ordinary
shares issued.
4. The P:E ratio (price:earnings ratio) is the relationship between a
company’s current market value and its profit after tax: market price per
share divided by post-tax profit per share. It supposedly indicates the
number of years a company would take to earn back its share price,
assuming constant earnings. A relatively high P:E ratio indicates the
market’s confidence in the company’s earnings growth (or recovery)
potential.
5. When a share trades cum-dividend, the purchaser will receive the right
to receive the recently declared dividend. On a specified cut-off day,
shares will go ex-dividend, signifying that new purchasers will not
receive the dividend. Other things being equal, the share price will fall
by the amount of the dividend.
7. Scrip issues and bonus issues are synonyms for the issue of free
shares, for example, in a ‘one-for-ten’ scrip issue for every ten shares
held, shareholders may be given 1
an extra share. In principle, this should
drive down the share price by 11 , as the earnings are now spread over
more shares (earnings dilution). However, in practice, bonus issues
often carry an ‘information content’ as investors hope and expect that
companies will at least maintain the dividend per share. In effect, a scrip
dividend is often taken to signify a company’s own expectation that
earnings will increase sufficiently to enable payment of higher
dividends.
Unit 7
Activity 7.1
PAT
1. The ROE is = 15 100 = 15.6%
Net assets 95
Activity 7.2
It assumes that today’s share price is reliable and is set by an efficient
capital market.
The value obtained depends on which day we do the calculation, given
that share prices fluctuate on a daily basis.
It implies a constant rate of future dividend growth.
It assumes that recent past dividend growth is a good indicator of future
growth.
It only works for quoted companies (those with a market price).
It only works when ke > g.
It doesn’t work when the company pays no dividend (or a historically
low one, as in a recovery situation).
One further problem with the DVM is that it yields an equity cost which
is only applicable at the level of the whole company. It is a blanket
figure of limited use for evaluating the cash flows generated by projects
with degrees of risk that differ from those of the whole company as a
whole. For evaluating most projects, we need to ‘tailor-make’ a discount
rate to reflect the risk of the project in question. For this, we use the
CAPM. This is the cornerstone of much of modern finance theory and
research.
Activity 7.5
PBIT = £20m
£17.5m
EPS = = 23.3p
75m
Activity 7.6
Activity 7.7
Kd = 1
V
10(1 0.25)
= 100
92
= 8.2%
Cost of equity
Ke = D1 + g
P0
= (1 6 1.0 4) + 4%
320
= 9.2%
WACC
The market value of shares and loan capital was used in establishing the
weightings in the target capital structure:
C: Risk-adjusted discount rate
= 6% + 0.8(12% – 6%)
= 10.8%
Question 2:
The cost of loan capital will be an inappropriate discount rate even though
finance for the project may be raised from this source. As the capital
structure of the company is expected to stay the same over time, this
means that some projects will be financed by loan capital and some will be
financed by equity capital. The particular choice between the two at any
particular point in time will be determined by various factors including,
perhaps, pure chance. On some occasions, it may be easier to raise
finance by loan capital and on other occasions, by equity. If the cost of the
specific source of finance was used as the relevant discount rate for a
project, it could lead to absurd decisions. For example, let us assume that
the company decided to invest in two projects A and B and that Project A
is financed by loan capital at a cost of 8.2% and Project B is financed by
equity at 9.2%. Let us further assume that the IRR for both projects is 9%.
If the specific cost of finance is used in each case, Project A would be
accepted and Project B would be rejected even though each project
produced exactly the same IRR.
This method calculates the discount rate by adding a risk premium to the
risk-free rate of return. The risk-free rate of return is usually taken from
long-term government bonds. The risk-adjusted discount rate reflects the
fact that shareholders will expect a higher rate of return from projects
where the risk is higher. However, problems arise when implementing this
method as determining the appropriate risk premium for a project may
prove difficult. The use of a risk-adjusted discount rate also assumes that
risk will increase over time, which may not always be the case.
Unit 8
Activity 8.1
The choice of time period is arbitrary – a different time period might
have painted a quite different picture.
By annualising the TSR, it ignores the fluctuations in return in the
intervening years. Many investors value stability in returns, often being
prepared to accept a slightly lower return in exchange for a more
reliable one.
The last point hints at the relative riskiness of the companies. Relatively
high returns might have been achieved by running relatively high risks.
Just because a company has delivered value at a rapid pace in the
past, it does not follow that it can continue to do so, without expensive
and possibly ill-judged acquisitions.
Activity 8.2
£120 £100
2
(1.1) (1.1)
Activity 8.5
The last dividend was 1.50p per share, making a total payout of
£70m 4 1.50p = £4.2m. The profit after tax (£m) was:
Profit before interest and tax 25.00
Interest (0.70)
Taxable profit 24.30
Tax @ 33% (8.02)
Profit after tax 16.28
% Payout 4.20/16.28 = 26%
Dividend cover = 3.9 times
If the present cash balances are used to increase the dividend by £10m,
making a total dividend of £4.20m + £10m = £14.20m, the figures will
appear thus:
Profit before interest and tax 40.00
Interest (0.70)
Taxable profit 39.30
Tax @ 33% (12.97)
Profit after tax 26.33
% Payout 14.20/26.33 = 54%
Dividend cover = 1.9 times
Question 2:
Date: Anyday
I Introduction
Phoenix has built up significant cash balances over the past year as a
result of exceptional growth in sales and profits as the economy has
recovered from recession, sparking demand for the high quality
building products in which we specialise. There are several possible
uses for surplus cash balances such as investment in the short-term
money market and acquisition of other companies. However, my remit
is to consider only two such uses, firstly, an increase in dividends and
secondly, early repayment of the long-term loan stock, otherwise
repayable in 2019. This report will consider each of these in turn.
II Dividend increase
(ii) The tax shield. If we repay the loan, we will lose the benefit of the
tax relief accorded to debt interest payments. Admittedly, the tax
saving is not substantial [33% 7% £10m =] £0.23m, but it is
nevertheless worthwhile. Given our recent increase in profitability,
and assuming this can be sustained, there is a strong case for
increasing our gearing rather than reducing it, although this would
be contrary to our traditional policy. Our capital gearing is well
below, and our interest cover is well above, current industry
averages:
Phoenix Industry
Capital gearing £10m/£200m* = 5% 45%
(*ignoring retentions for the current year)
IV Recommendation