The liberal future of China

Danny Kim

The rise of East Asia in the 21st century is bringing great changes to the world. Especially

China is rising to be almost a new superpower with rapid economic growth and a globalized

language. If one problem exists, China has not yet developed a liberal democracy unlike almost all

other successfully developed countries. Whether or not if China will achieve liberal democracy, that

too in clear or twisted path can be the question that will decide the fate of modern humanity. It

can either democratize or lead to chaos not only in China, but worldwide. China’s rapid economic

growth is increasing the possibility of China achieving democracy, but it hasn’t yet been using the

market system, which has been the bridge to democracy in all countries that achieved in an

untwisted path. But maybe China could be an exception. It is questionable if economic liberalization

really is the key to China’s democratization. A few reasons can state why not.

A simple statement by Karl Marx can easily predict China’s future. Marx stated that when

the economic structure called the “base” makes changes, the political system called the

“superstructure” must align with one another to create a stable, balanced government. If they don’t

get along, they will collide and cancel each other out, breaking the balance and bring chaos to the

government.

Obviously, the right base for a democratic superstructure is a capitalist base. But if

economic liberalization suddenly occurs in China and throws away its old communist base, bad
things will happen. Its political reform will have a hard time catching up and getting used to the

new economic base due to some obstacles, like the popularity of the current Chinese reigning

political party. It not only takes the government but also the effort of the people to accept the

changes. It’s doubtful if the Chinese population will just give up their support to their old

government. Violent disagreements and clamors can lead China down another twisted path, leading

it down towards a maybe endless labyrinth to liberal democracy.

Economic liberalization is the key to liberal democracy, but only under certain

circumstances. The effect of an economically liberal country will only activate when the country has

an independent bourgeoisie and a government strong enough to make sure that everything is in

order. Although WWI brought great growth to the Chinese economy and bourgeoisie, its golden

age began to fade away in 1923. Modern Chinese bourgeoisie was born as result of foreign influence,

but the drastic price increase of cotton led to the collapse of the economy and to recession. The

bourgeoisie, that enjoyed years of sustained growth, prosperity and freedom, lost its position

completely five years later and is still dependent on the government nowadays.

Also, Chinas government has been losing control over the last decade. Too much

concentrated support on the Chinese communist party has almost led to an autocracy. Due to

having its long-term rule relied on the citizens, the government is growing very dependent on their

support. It may seem like the government may be good at controlling the people due to its

popularity but being too dependent on the people might bring worse effects. Economic
liberalization needs to take place in a country with both an independent bourgeoisie and a strong

government, but China looks like it needs some repairs on both hands.

Considering many possibilities, it is possible that a communist base can be suitable for a

liber and democratic superstructure. Economic liberalization in a communist country can bring good

results, but more severe consequences enhance the risk. The rise of the market system and the

birth of liberalism was both related to the key concept of private property. On the other hand,

communism is left like a hollow trunk, without the main core of liberal democracy. However, things

might get worse.

Consider if China actually went through a rapid political growth and achieved a democratic

government. Easy come, easy go, many governments that achieved democracy rapidly like that

didn’t last very long. In other words, China achieved democracy before liberalism. This pattern is

familiar, like the French Revolution and the reign of terror or the rise of the Nazis. The idea of being

liberal wasn’t familiar to them, but democracy was. Without enough time to make sure liberalism

takes place in the society, socialism and ultra-nationalism can reign.

Similar consequences will likely occur if China achieves democracy without an independent

bourgeoisie or a strong government. Opposite to the previous possibility, the state and the people

may become dependent towards each other, decreasing any other development. In either way, China

may not be ready for a liberal democratic government.

It is still true that the democratization of China is an incomleted task that can decide the
future of modern humanity, but economic liberalization may not be the perfect key. At least, not

now. After achieving an independent bourgeoisie and a government, and the rise of the market

system, China will likely be on its way towards a crystal clear path of achieving liberal democracy.