Seismological Study

SEISMOLOGICAL STUDY

Fault and Paleo seismicity

Paleoseismology deals with the history of earthquakes: their location, magnitude and frequency
of occurrence. Thus, by study of the past occurrences of large earthquakes, it is possible to
forecast the likelihood of future earthquakes in terms of location, magnitude and probable
timing. It identifies and studies the source of earthquakes (active faults), their potential to
produce future large earthquakes from their past records, and to try to forecast and provide
information on future earthquake activity, usually using some probabilistic approach. Paleo-
seismological activities in the Nepal Himalaya have been evidenced from the sediments of
Kathmandu valley and Terai plain (Gajurel et al., 1998; Nakata et al., 1998; Lavé et al, 2005;
Yule et al., 2006; Sapkota et al., 2011). A detailed active fault map prepared in the Nepalese
Himalaya indicates that the active faults i.e. source of earthquakes are situated very far from
the project site (Upreti, 2009). However, convergence along the MHT has been generating
earthquakes in the whole Himalaya. Deformation due to convergence in the HFT and MBT is
high (Jouanne et al., 1999). In the study and surrounding area, there is no report of active fault.

Figure : Active fault of Nepal (adopted after Upreti, 2009)

Earthquake Catalogue, Historical and Instrumentally Recorded

Earthquakes
Nepal is a seismic prone country and has been experiencing several large earthquakes since the
first historic record, which dates back to the year 1255 A.D. Past records have shown that
Nepal can expect two earthquakes of magnitude 7.5-8 on the Richter scale every forty years
and one earthquake of magnitude of 8+ in Richter scale every eighty years. The last great
earthquake to strike Nepal was Bihar-Nepal Earthquake in 1934 which had a magnitude of 8.3
Richter. It caused considerable damage to buildings along with great loss of lives.

The National Seismological Center (NSC), Department of Mines and Geology (DMG) Nepal
is recording and updating the earthquake data with magnitude M4.0 and greater since its
inception in 1978. The historical occurrence of earthquakes in the near vicinity of the project
area from 1911 to 1992 is shown in Appendix C and the Epicentre Map of Nepal Himalaya,

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published by National seismological Center (NSC), Department of Mines and Geology (DMG)
Nepal is shown in Figure.

Figure : Earthquake epicenter map of Nepal (DMG, 2006)

Near the project area, two events of earthquakes recently occurred on July 29, 1980 of
magnitude 6 with an epicenter at Bajhang and on Oct. 20, 1991 of magnitude 6.6 with an
epicenter west of Darchula, Utter Kashi (India). The historical data shows that earthquakes
with magnitude of 6 and the epicenter, occurring at a depth of 15 and close to the project area
had occurred in Jun 27th 1966. In spite of these major earthquakes moderate magnitude
(Magnitude 5-6 M) earthquakes were occurred at distance 20-30 km from the project area.

Seismic Zoning
The attenuation relationship for the Himalayan Region have to acknowledge the
seismiotectonic behavior in the Himalayan region is not fully understood but knowledge is
increasing with the accumulation of research results and data analysis like from Seismic
Hazard Map of Nepal, DMG (M.R. Pandey et al., 2002), Seismotectonics of the Nepal
Himalaya from a local seismic networks: J. Asian Earth Science V-17 (Pandey et al 1999),
Indo-Asia convergence rates in the Nepal Himalaya; Nature, V-386 (Bilham et al., 1997) and
many others. The results of these latest information and results of seismo-tectonic studies in
the Himalayan region have been considered in this study. The seismic hazard map of Nepal
(with Bedrock Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration Contours in Gals) prepared by Pandey et
al (2002) is shown in Figure . The project area is likely to experience 300-350 gals horizontal
peak ground acceleration at bedrock.

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Proposed Project
Location

Figure : Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal (DMG, 2002)

The seismic coefficients based on deterministic approach and probabilistic approaches for
different hydropower projects in Nepal Himalaya are as follows:

Table : Seismic Coefficient By Different Study

Project Study Conducted By Recommended Seismic

Name Coefficient

Arun-3 JICA 0.12g for all components

for design

Upper Arun MKE, Lahmeyer, TEPSCO and 0.12g for dam

NEPECON

Tamor- MHSP, CIWEC MDE = 0.25g-0.24g

Mewa OBE =0.16g-0.15g

Chameliya KOICA, Hyundai Engineering Co., Korea 0.15g

Water Resources Co.
HEP (30MW)

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Middle Lahmeyer Intl., METCON 0.1g to 0.16g

CONSULTANTA, NEPCONSULT,
Marshyangdi
SHAH CONSULT

Lower Modi WRC 0.25g

Kabeli -A NEPCONSULT, Hydro Engineering 0.25g

Services

Seismic Analysis
In order to determine the seismic coefficient a seismic design code for Nepal has been prepared.
The country is derived into the three seismic zones based on allowable bearing capacity of
three types of the soil formation. The proposed Trishuli Galchhi Hydropower Project lies in
the seismic zone 2 of the Nepal Himalaya. The soil of the foundation at the dam site belongs
to average soil type. Therefore, the basic horizontal seismic coefficient is considered to be 0.50.
By using the empirical method, the effective design coefficient according to the seismic design
code of Nepal is given by the equation:

Aeff = R*Amax / 980

Where,

Aeff = Effective design seismic coefficient, and

R = Reduction factor (empirical value R = 0.50 - 0.65).

For the minimum acceleration of 300 gal, reduction factor of 0.50 the calculated effective
design seismic coefficient is approximately 0.15.

For the maximum acceleration of 350 gal, reduction factor of 0.50 the calculated effective
design seismic coefficient is approximately 0.18.

Hence, the design horizontal seismic coefficient ranges from 0.15 to 0.18 (calculated values).
Based on above results the design seismic coefficient for the Project can be taken in the range
of 0.15 to 0.18 which is more or less same value represented from the return period of the
earthquake. If the structures fall on the different types of the soil (residual, colluvial and alluvial
soil), the recommended values of the PGA would increase by 20%.