Day Ahead and Real Time

Planning and Operations

Supporting Structural Reforms in the Indian Power Sector

Oct Su08, 2018

kpmg.com
 Outline

Issues faced by
DISCOMS in Day
Ahead & Real Time Case Studies Solutions
Planning and
Operations

1. WBSEDCL
2. TS SLDC
3. RUVNL
4. UPPCL

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Issues faced by DISCOMS in Day Ahead Planning and Operations
• Managing the • Managing the rigidity • Integration of • Limited availability of
variability in Demand and variability in Renewables Market Products /
Supply Procedural Rigidities
• Predictability of Day • Forecasting and
Ahead and Intraday • Skewedness of Scheduling of VRE is • Inability to sell and
load – variations due Supply Portfolios in nascent stages buy in Intra day
to uncertainty in towards LT PPAs - Market
weather, distribution small room for day • Absence of Reserve
network outages etc. ahead and real time Resources for • Rigidity in Scheduling
market for new, balancing – Regulations (LT, ST
• Migration of Open innovative and dominance of and Collective) leads
Access Consumers flexible supply thermal generation to sub optimal Merit-
(OAC) – increases and contractual / Order-Dispatch -
the volatility in • Peaking Deficits still operational rigidity boxing up and
demand exist due to supply provides little backing down of
inflexibilities, while flexibility lower cost generation
Energy is in surplus
• Uncertainty in
• Predictability of Declared Capacity
Solar, Wind (DC), and Long Gate
generation and Closures reduce
outages liquidity in Intra day
markets
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Day Ahead Planning and Operations of SLDCs / DISCOMS
Time of Demand Forecasting Power Exchange (PX) Resource Adequacy &
the Day Scheduling
1. Day Ahead Demand Forecasting
9:00 (Morning)
3. Bidding Quantum for DAM Buy and Sell 2. Assess the Supply Adequacy - Schedule
10:00 on PX Requisition to CGS plants (R0)
4. Bid Price decisions by Discoms’
11:00 Procurement Cell

12:00
13:00 5. Provisional Exchange Results 5.

|
17:00 6. Power Exchange Buy & Sell Allotment

7. Day Ahead Demand Forecasting 9. Sufficiency of Resources rechecked for

18:00 (Evening) Day Ahead
8. Assess bids for Day Ahead Contingency
19:00 Market (if need be)

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Real time Planning and Operations

Check Demand curve build

Check Interstate DSM Under up of the day with a similar
Drawal/Over drawal (UD/OD) day curve
are within the allowed limits
3. Observe 1. Assess
ISTS demand and Check Solar and Wind curve
Cycle is repeated supply is in build up with a similar day
Interchange continuously…..the
system is operated
balance curve
as per unanticipated
variations in demand
/ supply Estimate supply adjustments
required to match the load

Ramping instructions to
Generators as per Merit 2. Revise Schedules of LT
order* and TAM / URS as per PPAs to match real time
demand build up
availability
* Increasing VC order for Ramp up & Decreasing VC order for Ramp down for updation after 4th block. The backing down limit is restricted to minimum technical limit of every generator

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Existing Market Products for daily operations
Decentralised contracts

Demand
Proposed schedules
Voluntary
& adjustment bids
Supply

Price
Exercised
adjustments
Long term Bilateral short- Day ahead Intra-day DSM/ASM
contracts term contracts market market Regulated SMP
(up to 35 yrs): (up to 3 months): 3-4% of all trades Negligible Mechanism (2%
90% of all trades 4% of all trades volumes of market) MW
Imbalances
Adjustments Final schedules cashed out
System Marginal Price (SMP)

• States have locked themselves in suboptimal capacity mix resulting in huge off-peak and seasonal surpluses – Surpluses don’t
have many off-takers considering the current product portfolio / procedural rigidities in the market
• Long term Coal based PPAs with State, Central and IPPs dominate the capacity mix and offer varying but lower degrees of
operational flexibility i.e. Ramping Rates, Minimum Technical Limits (MTL), Start up and Shut Down etc.
• Products for Seasonal and Peaking contracts are relegated to mainly Short-term Bilateral, DAM / TAM on PX
• Higher commitment for Renewable Addition is compounding the surplus problem of states leading to Value Deflation for
competitive Solar & Wind generation

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 Outline

Issues faced by
DISCOMS in Day
Ahead Planning and
Case Studies Solutions
Operations

1. WBSEDCL
2. TS SLDC
3. RUVNL
4. UPPCL

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Key Challenges in WBSEDCL
1 • Evening peak is preceded by a valley 2
period, necessitating steep ramping • Lower Coal Availability for state gencos
requirements of up to 800 MW results in uncertainty in DC and thus
operations at lower capacity SUPPLY
DEMAND • Peak to Off-Peak Ratio is very high ~2000
MW • Near MTL operations due to low availability AVAILABILITY &
VARIABILITY
of coal coupled with Physically Binding PX FLEXIBILITY ISSUES
• State is characterized by uncertain weather
exposures renders the system devoid of
conditions - a wide temperature gradient,
any kind of flexibility
significant amount of temperature sensitive
residential load and norwesterlies

• Due to existence of intra-state ABT and presence of multiple distribution entities, DSM margin for WBSEDCL is significantly reduced
DSM LIMITS &
INTRA-STATE ABT • In winters due to low import from outside the state, effective DSM limits at 12% of imports kicks in thereby reducing DSM margins
further

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 Demand Variability and Supply inflexibilities in WBSEDCL
Monthly Max & Min Demand & Ramping Rates per block in WBSEDCL in 2017 (MW)
7,000

6069 6267
6,000 5968 5863 5846 5999 5939
5710
5,000 4942 5172
4773
4488
4,000
3134 3281 3290 3089
3,000 2929 3058
2641 2679 2520
2374 2325 2259
2,000
January February March April May June July August September October November December

Max Ramp Up 232 350 244 881 618 235 269 255 387 437 251 556
Max Ramp Down 542 609 616 971 590 586 604 628 661 677 678 538

• Long Term PPAs (Thermal): ~ 6,100 MW

• Thermal Availability: 3500 to 4000 MW
15-minute Block level load in WBSEDCL for 2017 (MW)
• Pumped Storage: 900 MW
7,000
• Peak Shortfall: 500 to 1000 MW
6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000
1
434
867

10393
10826
11259
11692
12125
12558
12991
13424
13857
14290
14723
15156
15589
16022
16455
16888
17321
17754
18187
18620
19053
19486
19919
20352
20785
21218
21651
22084
22517
22950
23383
23816
24249
24682
25115
25548
25981
26414
26847
27280
27713
28146
28579
29012
29445
29878
30311
30744
31177
31610
32043
32476
32909
33342
33775
34208
34641
1300
1733
2166
2599
3032
3465
3898
4331
4764
5197
5630
6063
6496
6929
7362
7795
8228
8661
9094
9527
9960

Choronological Load Curve Load Duration Curve

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2018
DAM buy side positions for 19th June were locked on 18th June

7,000 1,400

18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017

6,000 1,200

5,000 1,000
Demand (MW)

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title
DAM (18) DAM (19) 18th June 2017 Forecast (19)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017
Based on demand realized till 1000 Hours and weather
7,000 forecast, demand forecasts for 20th June were made 1,400

6,000 1,200
18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017

5,000 1,000

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) 18th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017
Due to high demand observed in the current period and
apparently low availability from thermal generators, a
7,000 1,400
significant amount of Exchange Exposure was taken

6,000 1,200
18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017

5,000 1,000

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017
An unpredicted weather phenomena, characterized by
7,000 1400
strong winds and heavy showers – Norwesterlies hits
West Bengal, demand crashes during peak periods.

6,000 18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017 1200

5,000 1000

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title
DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 19th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017 Low flexibility of thermal plants and PX schedules cause
huge surpluses. Thin Intra-day Markets and gate closure
rigidities do not provide ample room for disposal of power in
7,000 1400
the markets resulting in huge Underdrawl

6,000
18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017 1200

5,000 1000

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 19th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20) UD (19)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017
Despite significant PX Exposure and load crash,
UD during peak hours was less, because 900
MW Pumped Storage operations scheduled
7,000 during this period were suspended 1400

18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017

6,000 1200

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

5,000 1000
Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 19th June 2017
20th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20) UD (19) UD (20)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Load remains subdued, but positions have been locked. Boxing-up of
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017
generators is an option, but apprehensions regarding revival of load prevails,
in which case sync. would be difficult resulting in load shedding during peak
7000 hours 1400

6000 18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017 1200

5000 1000

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

Demand (MW)

4000 800

3000 600

2000 400

1000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 19th June 2017
20th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20) UD (19) UD (20)

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How things go Wrong in Real Time Operations?
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017

Apprehensions turn true as load revives rapidly,

normalcy in the system is restored
7,000 1400

18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017

6,000 1200

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

5,000 1000
Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 19th June 2017
20th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20) UD (19) UD (20)

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Key Takeaways
Extreme Weather Events: 19th June 2017 1. Lack of liquidity in Real Time Markets
2. Inflexibility of Existing Supply Portfolio
3. Inability to harness flexibility over larger balancing areas
7,000 1,400

18th June 2017 19th June 2017 20th June 2017

6,000 1,200

5,000 1,000

PX Exposure and UD (MW)

Demand (MW)

4,000 800

3,000 600

2,000 400

1,000 200

0 0
1 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96 8 16 24 32 40 48 56 64 72 80 88 96
Axis Title

DAM (18) DAM (19) DAM (20) 18th June 2017 19th June 2017
20th June 2017 Forecast (19) Forecast (20) UD (19) UD (20)

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 Outline

Issues faced by
DISCOMS in Day
Ahead Planning and
Case Studies Solutions
Operations

1. WBSEDCL
2. TS SLDC
3. RUVNL
4. UPPCL

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Key Challenges in TS SLDC
1 • No assurance in Availability of generators 2
• Extremely Variable Demand particularly in as their availability can change ~1 hour in
the Monsoon months – Jul, Aug and Sep advance at no cost
• Very less options for Procurement/Sale in SUPPLY
DEMAND • Changing agricultural rosters over the years
intra-day markets results in high costs for
has made demand forecasting very
keeping reserves to manage variations in
AVAILABILITY &
VARIABILITY challenging
demand and solar generation FLEXIBILITY ISSUES
• Open Access Consumers further increase • 24 hour supply for Agriculture Consumers
the volatility in demand has taken away the scheduling flexibility
resulting in more stress on the system

DSM LIMITS & • State currently doesn’t have an Intra-state ABT Mechanism

INTRA-STATE ABT • Intra ABT mechanism can help streamline the availability commitment of intra state generators

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 How does the uncertainty in demand supply impact the daily operations?
Demand Volatility in Agriculture intensive / Monsoon months is very high (2017)

MW

HOURS

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 How does the uncertainty in demand supply impact the daily operations?
Variations on the Supply Side – Solar (2017)
MW

HOURS
*Solar generation shown in the above graphs is taking into account the new capacity additions on a monthly basis
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How does the uncertainty in demand supply impact the daily operations?
MW Solar increases the volatility in Net Demand in Monsoon and other months

HOURS

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How does the variability in demand supply impact the daily operations?
Open Access Consumers also add to the volatility in Demand
Daily Purchase behavior of OAC (MW) and corresponding IEX Prices (Rs/kWh) for representative days

20-Oct-2017 30-Nov-2017
350 4.50 300 8.00
4.00 OAC Purchases (MW) Prices (Rs/kWh)
300 250 7.00
3.50 6.00
250
3.00 200 5.00
200 2.50
150 4.00
150 2.00
1.50 100 3.00
100 2.00
1.00
50 50 1.00
0.50
0 0.00 0 0.00
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89 1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
15 mins time block 15 mins time block

Additional Ramping Requirements on SLDC due to Switching in and out of Exchange by Open Access Consumers (MW)

20-Oct-17 30-Nov-17
100 150
50 100
0 50
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
-50 0
1 9 17 25 33 41 49 57 65 73 81 89
-100 -50
-150 -100
-200 -150

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Net Demand variations are managed through LT PPAs and DAM on PX
Day Ahead Market Purchases from Power Exchange (6 August 2017)
3000 6
2500 Px Quantum Px Price 5
2000 4

Rs/kWh
MW

1500 3
1000 2
500 1
0 0

Out of Merit Operation: Generation with VC less than PX not dispatched

1200

900
MW

600

300

0
10:00
10:30
11:00
11:30
12:00
12:30
13:00
13:30
14:00
14:30
15:00
15:30
16:00
16:30
17:00
17:30
18:00
18:30
19:00
19:30
20:00
20:30
21:00
21:30
22:00
22:30
23:00
23:30
0:00
0:30
1:00
1:30
2:00
2:30
3:00
3:30
4:00
4:30
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
7:30
8:00
8:30
9:00
9:30

Ramagundam STPS Stage-I & II Ramagundam-B Kakatiya -TPS-II Tuticorin Kakatiya -TPS-I Kothagudem Simhadri STPS Stage-I Vallur STPS Simhadri STPS Stage-II Kothagudem - VI TPS-II

The cost of maintaining Reserves through LT PPAs and DAM is very high

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 Outline

Issues faced by
DISCOMS in Day
Ahead Planning and
Case Studies Solutions
Operations

1. WBSEDCL
2. TS SLDC
3. RUVNL
4. UPPCL

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Key Challenges in RUVNL
1 • Rajasthan faces deficit of over ~2 2
GW between 600 to 1100 hours
during Rabi, which is met through PX
or banking / bilateral arrangements
• The marginal generator (Suratgarh)
is not economical for supplying
• The seasonal and diurnal variation in peaking power as cost of running the
demand is huge due to substantial plant on MTL during off-peak period
Agricultural load is high
• During Rabi season (Nov to Mar), • Wind and Solar generation is 4.2 GW SUPPLY
DEMAND demand varies from ~6 GW in night and 2.2 GW respectively resulting in AVAILABILITY &
VARIABILITY to ~11.5 GW during the day huge volatility in supply and therefore FLEXIBILITY ISSUES
• The demand variations in a particular need for Reserves
block are more than ~500 MW as • Large Reserve requirement causes
compared with the previous day significant under drawals, huge ramp-
downs and foregone sale potential
• Longer intra day Gate Closure
constrains the ability to sell power
during high wind flow or load crash
and buy power during outage/sudden
increase in load

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 MW MW

0
0

100
200
300
400
500
100
200
300
400
500
0000-0015 0000-0015
0030-0045 0030-0045
0100-0115 0100-0115
0130-0145 0130-0145
0200-0215 0200-0215
0230-0245 0230-0245
0300-0315 0300-0315
0330-0345 0330-0345

Market Purchase
0400-0415 0400-0415
0430-0445 0430-0445
0500-0515 0500-0515
0530-0545 0530-0545
0600-0615 0600-0615
0630-0645 0630-0645
0700-0715 0700-0715
0730-0745 0730-0745
Schedule (MW)

0800-0815 0800-0815
0830-0845 0830-0845
0900-0915 0900-0915
0930-0945 0930-0945
1000-1015 1000-1015
1030-1045 1030-1045
1100-1115 1100-1115
1130-1145 1130-1145
1200-1215 1200-1215
1230-1245 1230-1245
1300-1315 1300-1315
1330-1345 1330-1345
1400-1415 1400-1415
Estimated Surplus / Deficit (All Suratgarh Units Running)

1430-1445 1430-1445
1500-1515 1500-1515
1530-1545 1530-1545
1600-1615 1600-1615
1630-1645 1630-1645
1700-1715 1700-1715
1730-1745 1730-1745
1800-1815 1800-1815
Estimated Surplus / Deficit (All Suratgarh Units Running)

1830-1845 1830-1845
1900-1915 1900-1915
1930-1945 1930-1945
2000-2015
2000-2015
2030-2045
2030-2045
2100-2115
What does the inflexibility of Thermal Plants do to the System Operations?

2100-2115
2130-2145
2130-2145
2200-2215
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2200-2215
2230-2245
2230-2245
2300-2315
Deficit Surplus Position of Rajasthan (one Unit of Suratgarh for meeting the morning Deficit)

2300-2315
2330-2345
2330-2345
Deficit Surplus Position of Rajasthan (One Unit of Suratgarh replaced with Market Purchases)

Surplus / Deficit (One Unit of Surargarh Shutdown)

-
0

500
500

(500)
-500

1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500

(1,500)
(1,000)
-1,000

MW MW
28
 Outline

Issues faced by
DISCOMS in Day
Ahead Planning and
Case Studies Solutions
Operations

1. WBSEDCL
2. TS SLDC
3. RUVNL
4. UPPCL

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Regulatory Prudence – Costly Generation Replacement

• IEX submitted to UPERC the potential savings in power purchase cost by

replacing the costly generation Suo-Moto Proceedings on the
purchase of power from Power
• Possibility of replacing 878 MU or 1200 MW RTC for the month of April 2015 at
Exchange by UPPCL
2.48 Rs/kWh

• UPPCL submitted that LT PPAs have advantages over PX transactions including “……Also it was discussed that even if
Flexibility in Operations, Corridor Availability through LTA, Credit Period, the supply schedule is organized on the
etc. basis of usual power sources, a bid may
be placed in the power exchange at a
• UPPCL also submitted that, PX transactions may disturb normal flows thereby lower price and if the same is cleared
leading to congestion and threatening grid stability, further backing down of LT then the usual supply can be
PPAs may lead to legal problems replaced by cheaper power from the
exchange. It is not clear why this
cannot be done. If this was being done
• UPERC directed UPPCL to submit complete information for power procurement then UPPCL could save substantially in
during FY 2015-16 clearly explaining why they did not explore purchases from power purchase which is around 80% of
Power Exchange when power was available at less than the VC of certain plants its ARR and this effectively would lead to
lowering of the consumer tariffs…”
• UPERC expected UPPCL to take advantage of lower price conditions in the
market and reduce its power purchase cost

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 Outline

Issues faced by
DISCOMS in Day
Ahead Planning and
Case Studies Solutions
Operations

1. WBSEDCL
2. TS SLDC
3. RUVNL
4. UPPCL

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Optimal Power Procurement Planning for efficient Day Ahead Operations

• Market design and rules in India have followed the evolution of generation mix, which was dominated by Coal
backed by LT base load PPAs
• DISCOMS / States have either covered their Peak Demand with LT base load PPAs and are bearing high fixed
charges without significant utilization of the capacity
• Besides, the limited flexibility of thermal generators distorts the merit order
• and there is a burden of LTOA charges throughout the year
• DISCOMS / States who have covered only base demand in long-term PPAs, are facing significant risk of short-
term prices and volumes
• Moreover, short term contracts provide zero flexibility in real time operations – Exchange obligations are to be
honored and short-term bilateral transactions have a lead time of 2 days for rescheduling
• Thus, it is critical that Market design and rules provide proper signals for efficient daily operations
• Policy Makers should think carefully about Market Design for day ahead and real time operations, Scheduling
Processes and Products with growing Renewables, Distributed Generation for enabling an economically efficient
Day Ahead Planning and Operations

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LT & ST Power Procurement Planning are interlinked
Approach for Long and Short Power Procurement Planning

36 Forecasted Intra Day Real-time

demand demand
“Net demand”
34 Hour Ahead/ Ancillary • Power Procurement Planning
Short Term / IDT1 Service should take into account the
32 Day Ahead
Volume

Buy “Time Chronology of Demand”

30 and “Net Demand*”
Buy Sell
Considerations”
28 Sell

26 • Risk Management of Long term

Mid Merit Capacity (Long / Medium Term PPAs e.g. Hydro, Gas etc.) and Short term Contracts is
24
critical
22
Base load RTC Capacity (Long Term PPAs e.g. Coal, Nuclear etc.) • Planning should be reviewed and
updated on a rolling basis every
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 year

Hours
*Net Demand – demand taking into account the Must Run Renewables

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Proper Risk Management over planning and operational time scales holds the key

Planning and Operational timescales have strong linkages - States should adopt Scientific tools for Risk Evaluation and Hedging Strategies

Growth in Demand, Generation Year Ahead Planning - 3 Month Ahead / Month Ahead / Day Ahead Intraday rescheduling by Real time
Adequacy, Flexibility Requirements, Procurement & Sale of Weekly Power procurement and Scheduling by Grid Connected Entities / dispatch by
Transmission additions, New Power Sale Planning by DISCOMS DISCOMS / System System Operator System
technologies Storage, EVs, EE etc. Operator Operators

(D – 25 years <= t <= D – 1 year) (t <= D – 1 year) (D – 3 months <= 1 <= D- 7 days) (T = D – 24 hours) (D – 24 hours <= t <= D) (t = D)

Scientific Tools for Power Procurement Planning and Operations need to be adopted

3. SHORT TERM & DAY AHEAD POWER PROCUREMENT COST OPTIMISATION

1. POWER PROCUREMENT PLANNING TOOLS
- Month Ahead, Week Ahead, Day Ahead and Intraday Load Forecasting
- Price Forecasting
- RE Integration
2. ELECTRICITY DEMAND FORECASTING TOOLS - Scheduling Optimisation

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Key Market Design Interventions
Issues Current Response Market Design Interventions

• TAM Procurement • Better Weather forecasting support

Uncertainty in Demand • URS • Distribution Scada for Bottom up estimation
LR/OD • Pumped Storage Operations • Ancillary Services
Forecasting
• Short Term Bilateral From Traders • Real Time Markets

• TAM Procurement • Day-Ahead Schedules to be made

Changes in Generation LR/OD • URS financially binding
Availability • Pumped Storage Operations • Gate Closure for LT PPAs
• Short Term Bilateral From Traders

• Pumped Storage Operations

Load Crash UD • Generator Cycling • Deeper Real Time Markets
• Curtailment of ST Transactions

• Pumped Storage Operations • Ancillary Services

• RE Curtailment • Faster Scheduling process
Renewable Integration LR/UD/OD • Generator Box-up • Deeper Real Time markets
• DAM and TAM • Larger Balancing Areas

• TAM Procurement
Totally / Partially Uncleared • URS • Deeper Day-Ahead Markets
LR/OD • Pumped Storage Operations • Deeper Real Time markets
Buy Bids • Short Term Bilateral From Traders

• Pumped Storage Operations • Transmission Corridor Allocation closer to

Transmission Congestion LR/OD • Short Term Bilateral From Traders Real Time and based on Merit-Order-Dispatch

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individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such
information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on
such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation.

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with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved.