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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Greater Toronto Area


Federal Voting Intentions
27th September 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of a With 20 years of political experience in all three
survey conducted on September 23rd and 26th, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 498 adults, 18 years of Maggi is a respected commentator on international
age or older, living in the Greater Toronto Area. public affairs.
The survey was conducted using automated
telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular Research has provided accurate snapshots of
phones. The survey is intended to represent the public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
voting population of Greater Toronto Area. government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
and was sponsored by iPolitics and Groupe accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
Capitales Médias. was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
The sampling frame was derived from both is a member of the World Association for Public
a national telephone directory compiled by Opinion Research and meets international and
Mainstreet Research from various commerically Canadian publication standards.
available sources and random digit dialing. The
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was CONTACT INFORMATION
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian In Ottawa:
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, Quito Maggi, President
respondents were asked the additional question quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
of what region of the country they resided in.
In Toronto:
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.39% and is Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
accurate 19 times out of 20. joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca

(full methodology appears at the end of this Find us online at:


report) www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
LIBERALS DOMINATING IN THE GREATER TORONTO AREA

27th September 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Liberal Party of Canada have a substantial fourteen
point lead over the Conservatives in the pivotal and seat-rich Greater Toronto Area.

Those are the findings of a Mainstreet Research poll, which surveyed 498 residents of the
Greater Toronto Area between September 23rd and 26th. The survey has a margin of error
of +/- 4.39% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals are looking good at the moment in the GTA,” said Quito Maggi, President and
CEO of Mainstreet Research. “If the election were held today, they would keep every seat
that they currently hold in the region and might even threaten to take some away from the
Conservatives.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 45.4%, while the
Conservatives with Andrew Scheer at the helm have 31.3%. The NDP with Jagmeet Singh as
leader have 10.5% and the Green Party led by Elizabeth May come in with 8.3%. The People’s
Party with Maxime Bernier have 3.8%.

The Greater Toronto Area, as defined in this survey, includes the following areas: Dufferin
County, Durham Region, Peel Region, Simcoe County, and York Region.

“The Liberals have leads in every region except for Durham Region, which confirms our earlier
findings in the electoral district of Durham which had the Conservatives leading comfortably,”
said Maggi.

One interesting finding in this survey is that there is a near three-way tie between the Liberals,
Conservatives, and Greens in Simcoe County, with only six points separating them.

“Seeing the Conservatives this low in Simcoe County, and with the Greens unlikely to hold
their current level of support on election day, it could spell trouble on election day for the
Conservative incumbents in this area.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
All Voters
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?

11.3%

0.6%
3.4%

6.3%
41.7%

8.2% All Voters

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
28.5%

11% 0.8%
3.8%
Liberals 8.3%
Conservatives
1.2% NDP Greens People's Party
3.5%
Another Party Undecided
34.9%
5.7%
10.5%

3%
45.4%
All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
9.1%

31.3%
31.6%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Liberals Conservatives
Greens People's Party NDP Greens Undecided
Another Party People's Party

Another Party
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18- 35- 50- Dufferin Durham Peel Simcoe York
Total Men Women 65+
34 49 64 County Region Region County Region
Liberal, Trudeau 41.7% 39% 44.3% 43.2% 37.1% 39.1% 48.8% 42.8% 34.1% 53.1% 31.8% 37.2%
Conservative,
28.5% 37.1% 20.1% 15.9% 28.2% 40.6% 29.9% 24.3% 39.8% 20.7% 28.8% 35.4%
Scheer
NDP, Singh 8.2% 4.6% 11.6% 15.7% 8.6% 2.6% 4.8% 12% 7.1% 4.9% 2% 7.8%
Green, May 6.3% 4.5% 8% 5.8% 8.7% 3.3% 8.2% 5.5% 6.7% 3.9% 23.6% 2.8%
People's Party,
3.4% 4.6% 2.2% 5.3% 4.3% 1% 2.8% 3% - 5.5% 3.9% 5.5%
Bernier
Another Party 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% - 1.8% - 1% 0.4% 0.8% - 2.7% 1%
Undecided 11.3% 9.2% 13.3% 14.1% 11.2% 13.4% 4.5% 12.1% 11.6% 11.8% 7.2% 10.3%
Unweighted
498 295 203 70 142 168 118 176 101 106 37 78
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 498 247 251 138 125 137 98 183 97 107 37 74

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)


18- 35- 50- Dufferin Durham Peel Simcoe York
Total Men Women 65+
34 49 64 County Region Region County Region
Liberal, Trudeau 43.8% 40.1% 47.3% 45% 38.6% 42.2% 50.9% 44.8% 34.9% 56.3% 31.8% 40.5%
Conservative,
30.3% 38.1% 22.6% 17.1% 30.8% 43.3% 29.9% 25.5% 41.9% 24.9% 28.8% 35.4%
Scheer
NDP, Singh 10% 5.6% 14.2% 18.6% 10.9% 3.3% 5.8% 14.3% 9.3% 6.4% 2% 9.3%
Green, May 8% 6.7% 9.3% 7% 9.9% 6.6% 8.9% 6.9% 8.1% 5.2% 26.4% 5.2%
People's Party,
3.6% 4.6% 2.6% 5.3% 5.2% 1% 2.8% 3.6% - 5.5% 3.9% 5.3%
Bernier
Another Party 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% - 1.8% 0.5% 1% 0.8% 0.8% - 2.7% 1%
Undecided 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 7% 2.9% 3% 0.7% 4.1% 5% 1.6% 4.5% 3.2%
Unweighted
498 295 203 70 142 168 118 176 101 106 37 78
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 498 247 251 138 125 137 98 183 97 107 37 74

(decided and leaning voters)


18- 35- 50- Dufferin Durham Peel Simcoe York
Total Men Women 65+
34 49 64 County Region Region County Region
Liberal, Trudeau 45.4% 41.7% 49% 48.4% 39.7% 43.5% 51.2% 46.8% 36.6% 57.4% 33.5% 41.6%
Conservative,
31.3% 39.4% 23.3% 18.4% 31.7% 44.7% 30.1% 26.3% 44.2% 25.2% 30% 36.5%
Scheer
NDP, Singh 10.5% 5.9% 14.9% 20% 11.2% 3.4% 5.8% 15% 9.9% 6.6% 2.1% 9.8%
Green, May 8.3% 6.9% 9.6% 7.6% 10.1% 6.8% 9% 7.3% 8.5% 5.3% 27.7% 5.3%
People's Party,
3.8% 4.8% 2.8% 5.7% 5.3% 1.1% 2.8% 3.8% - 5.6% 4.1% 5.8%
Bernier
Another Party 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% - 1.8% 0.5% 1% 0.8% 0.8% - 2.7% 1%
Unweighted
483 286 197 65 138 163 117 170 97 104 36 76
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 483 239 244 134 121 133 95 177 92 106 36 72
Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
for?
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of


respondents who were undecided in previous question)
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Scheer
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Jagmeet Singh
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth May
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier
Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?


Male
Female

What is your age group?


18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on September 23rd
to 26th 2019, among a sample of 498 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in the Greater
Toronto Area. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents
were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent
the voting population of the Greater Toronto Area.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics and
Groupe Capitales Médias.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age
and gender.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.45% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.71%, Females: +/-
6.88%, 18-34 age group: +/- 11.71%, 35-49 age group: +/- 8.22%, 50-64 age group: +/-
7.56%, 65+ age group: +/- 9%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.