Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 16

The Role of Predictive Models

in Energy Efficiency Optimization

of Industrial Plants and Buildings

Petr Stluka, Jiri Rojicek, Karel Marik

Honeywell Automation and Control Solutions
25 March 2009, Prague

• Energy Efficiency Applications

- Industrial and building segments
- Energy supply side / demand side
• Decision Making Scenarios
- Process industries: refining
- Cogeneration and buildings
• Energy Demand Forecasting Methods
- Memory-Based Regression

2 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Energy Efficiency

• Terminology
- Energy efficiency = using less energy to provide the same
level of service … e.g. by using more energy efficient
- Energy conservation = using less energy to achieve a lesser
energy service … e.g. through behavioral change
• Buildings
- Energy efficient appliances (refrigerators, freezers, ovens,
washers, …)
- Monitoring and control of major energy loads (heating,
ventilation, air conditioning, lighting, …)

• Industry
- Optimized energy conversion – fuel switching, running
equipment at its peak efficiency
- Advanced boilers and furnaces (combustion)
- Selection of less energy intensive operating modes
3 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague
Energy Efficiency Applications
Advanced Industrial
Industrial Process Plants
Control Utilities

Public Utilities
Steam, power

Dynamic Energy
Targeting and Monitoring


Homes & Buildings

Energy Monitoring
Poly-generation HVAC Control
(CHP) Electricity,
heating, Demand-Response
cooling Capable Homes
Optimal Equipment
4 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague
Energy Efficiency Optimization

Utility Plants Process Plants Buildings

CHP Manufacturing Homes
Business Generate utilities (power, Produce mix of products Depends on the type of
steam, heating, cooling) to meet demands in the building (office, hospital,
to meet customer downstream industries university, army base,
demands (contracts) shopping center, store,
home, etc.)

Attitude Energy directly is the Second largest cost (after Differs by the type of
to energy primary business cost of raw materials) activity. Sometimes energy
objective cost is only a fraction of
other operating costs

Energy Consistently addressed Minimize energy use but Minimize energy use but
efficiency in the plants delivery of products is the keeping occupants
first priority comfort is the first priority

Approach Closed-loop control Dynamic targeting Energy monitoring

Hierarchical optimization Continuous improvement Continuous improvement

Energy Dominated by Dominated by

Demand production schedule occupants needs

5 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Oil Refinery
Operation is mostly Minimizing energy use and environmental Mix of products
determined by the impact by selecting less energy intensive to be produced
specific crude oil and modes on each process unit to meet orders
its properties (e.g. Gas Liquefied petroleum gas
sulfur content) Gas Cooking
Straight Run Straight Run Gas Poly- Di-isobutylene
Isobutylene merization
Gasoline Gasoline Recovery Airplanes

Motor & aviation gasoline

Catalytic Butylene
High octane and
Reforming Butane Hydro-
Naphtha Gasoline Gasoline
Stabilization genation Automobiles
Isomerization Alkylation
Hydrogen Alternate Isobutane
Crude High octane Farming
Hydro- Alkylate
oil Cracking gasoline and gas Stabilized gasoline
Kerosene Blending

Gas oil Light furnace oil Home heating

Crude Furnace oil or Jet Fuel
Catalytic Cracking
Oil diesel oil Furnace oil
Distillation Heavy
gas oil Diesel oil Railroads

Heavy fuel oils

Residue Heavy fuel oils Factories
Atmospheric Heavy fuel oils
or Vacuum Asphalts Ships
Distillation Alternate Light
Vacuum Solvent lubricating oils Blending Sale
Distillation Asphalts Refining Dewaxing Heavy Packaging Asphalts
Asphaltic Roads
residue Heavy gas oil Decolorizing lubricating oils

Vacuum Lubricating distillates Solvent Wax Wax Refined Waxes

Lubricating Refining Plant Waxes
Distillation Lubricating residue Refining
residue Light products to
Alternate recovery and stabilization
Coking Coke
6 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague
Plant-Wide Optimization Criterion

• Plant profit can be formulated as:

Plant Profit = + ∑( Product

value )
- ∑(
Raw Raw
usage * material
) Utility consumption can be estimated
potentially for each unit based on the
previously built model that relates
energy consumption with capacity

- ∑( Utility
value ) utilization, operating modes, etc.

- Maintenance costs
- Penalties for GHG emissions Closely related to on-site energy
generation, types of fuels used,
- other costs overall energy efficiency, etc.

7 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Predictive Model for Crude Distillation Unit

• Correlates energy consumption on CDU unit with production

targets that uniquely define the mode of operation

Predicted energy Fuel energy (preheat, tower, total)

consumption Steam energy (tower, side strippers, total)
Power energy (tower, pump-arounds, total)

Feed Products
Feed flow rate Saturated gas flow rate
Feed temperature Naphtha flow rate
CDU Kerosene flow rate
API density
Diesel flow rate
Assay/blend properties
AGO flow rate
Residue flow rate
Naphtha distillation D86 90% Rec
Disturbances Kerosene distillation D86 10% Rec
Weather Diesel distillation D86 90% Rec
Diesel sulfur wt%

8 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

CHP and Buildings

Energy Energy electricity Energy

Suppliers Conversion heat User
electricity cooling
gas steam

Real time pricing Variable efficiency Fluctuating demand

• Conversion efficiency • Energy demand primarily

of the CHP system is depends on
optimized - People’s behavior – How
- Gas turbines, steam many occupants are in the
turbines, steam building? What they are
boilers, hot water doing?
boilers, compressor - Weather – Do we need
chillers, absorption cooling or heating? How
chillers much is needed to keep the
adequate comfort level?

9 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Various Daily Profiles …

1 1
Daily Consumption Profiles

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

… commerce … two-shift manufacturing

1 1

0.8 0.8

0.6 0.6

0.4 0.4

0.2 0.2

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

… casino … administration

10 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Structure of the Predictive Model

Inputs Demand Model Predictions

Data age
Time of day Heating demand
Holiday Cooling demand
Ambient temperature Electricity demand
Wind velocity Steam demand
Humidity …

Accuracy of energy demand

predictions depends heavily on
accuracy of weather forecasts

11 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Energy Demand Modeling Techniques
• Heuristics and benchmarks
- “Rule of thumb”, benchmarking of similar units
• First principle models
- Based on thermodynamics, mass and energy balances
• Time series models
- ARMA with exogenous variables (e.g. outdoor temperature)
• Statistical regression
- Basic regression functions are determined based on the
knowledge how the manufacturing plant is operated
- Resulting “global” models need to be regularly updated
- Linear regression, Partial Least Squares (PLS)
• Local regression
- Regression models are built based on understanding of
variations and correlations in historical data
- Local modeling deals well with non-linear dependencies, and
with segmentation of data in clusters
- Also known as: memory-based regression, locally weighted
regression (non-parametric statistics)

12 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Local Modeling
Local regression models are
built on-the-fly




Current state and its
neighborhood (= past operating
points similar to the current one) X1

… the dependency Y=f(X1,X2) is much simpler

in the local neighborhood than in global context
13 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague
Local Regression
Points in the neighborhood
are weighted according to - 3σ d2
Kernel function w = exp
Forecast – y (load)

Distance function
Polynomial fit 2
Xi* - Xi
d2 = ∑ hi

Local neighborhood
Query point
Independent variable – x
(time of day)
14 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague
Forecasting Results

Forecasted load
load maximum

load Forecasted
load minimum

Past data Forecasts three days ahead

15 Towards e-Environment, Mar 25 2009, Prague

Thank you for your attention!