Trends in world food prices and implications for food security:

On the eve of World Food Day 2012, one billion people will go to bed hungry. A further 200
million, mainly women and children, will suffer from the ‘hidden hunger’ of malnutrition. A diet
lacking in sufficient protein, vitamins, and minerals stunts growth and impairs learning ability in
children. After a decade of positive trends, now more people are falling back into poverty and
food insecurity. Since the dramatic food price rises in 2008, (and after a modest price fall in
2009), the global food security situation has deteriorated, with further price spikes in
international markets, principally maize, rice and wheat, in 2010 and 2012.

Why is this so? And what can be done to reverse these trends to improve food security?

Food insecurity is most pressing in Africa and South Asia. The highest proportion of rural poor
live in sub-Saharan Africa, and most are smallholder farmers and livestock keepers. The highest
absolute numbers of poor people live in South Asia. The highest proportions of the populations
unable to access sufficient nutritious food at affordable prices live and work in Africa and South
Asia.

This rising demand, especially in the emerging economies of Asia, coupled with growing world
population, leads to the need to increase total global food production by 70% by 2050. Is this
achievable?

The first ‘Green Revolution’ was based on the successful combination of technology, policies,
and investments, which led to the increases in agricultural productivity that boosted food
production, mainly in Asia, from the 1960s onwards. These increases were largely the result of
the widespread cultivation of high yielding varieties of rice and wheat, combined with pro-poor
policies and the supply of credit, inputs (fertilizer, pesticides and seeds) and investments in
infrastructure, especially irrigation and roads.

A second ‘Doubly Green Revolution’ in food and agriculture, primarily in the countries of Africa,
could be achieved by combining new technologies with environmentally sustainable economic
policies, investments in infrastructure, and the development of a robust private sector to
deliver new knowledge and agricultural goods and services to small-scale farmers and livestock
keepers.

Emerging issues in ensuring food security:

Emerging issues that will affect the likelihood of improving food security and reducing poverty
in emerging economies include:

• The growing role of the private sector in food and agriculture.

• The intersections between agriculture and mining.

• The implications of food security challenges for public policies, including investments in
international agricultural research.
If we are to encourage greater private sector investment in international agricultural research,
we must address concerns that the private sector legitimately has on a return on its investment
and a belief that protection of intellectual property is essential to delivering these returns. It
was argued at the Crawford Fund Parliamentary Conference in 2010 that many of the scientists
working for major agrochemical companies were at least in part motivated by delivering
benefits to the poor or “doing well by doing good” as the Crawford Fund would put.

Role of population, hunger And obesity in Food Security:

An estimated 820 million people did not have enough to eat in 2018, up from 811 million in the
previous year, which is the third year of increase in a row. This underscores the immense
challenge of achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger by 2030, says a new
edition of the annual The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report.

At the same time, adding to these challenges, overweight and obesity continue to increase in all
regions, particularly among school-age children and adults.

 Number of hungry people in the world in 2018: 821.6 million (or 1 in 9 people)
o in Asia: 513.9 million
o in Africa: 256.1million
o in Latin America and the Caribbean: 42.5 million
 Number of moderately or severely food insecure: 2 billion (26.4%)
 Babies born with low birth weight: 20.5 million (one in seven)
 Children under 5 affected by stunting (low height-for-age): 148.9 million (21.9%)
 Children under 5 affected by wasting (low weight-for-height): 49.5 million (7.3%)
 Children under 5 who are overweight (high weight-for-height): 40 million (5.9%)
 School-age children and adolescents who are overweight: 338 million
 Adults who are obese: 672 million (13% or 1 in 8 adults)

Why Can Food Insecurity and Obesity Co-Exist?

That food insecurity and obesity can co-exist and are significantly associated in some studies
does not necessarily mean they are causally linked to each other. Both food insecurity and
obesity can be independent consequences of low income and the resulting lack of access to
enough nutritious food or stresses of poverty. More specifically, obesity among food insecure
people – as well as among low-income people – occurs in part because they are subject to the
same often challenging cultural changes as other Americans (e.g., more sedentary lifestyles,
increased portion sizes), and also because they face unique challenges in adopting and
maintaining healthful behaviors, as described below.

 Limited Resources and Lack of Access to Healthy, Affordable Foods.

 Cycles of Food Deprivation and Overeating
 High Levels of Stress, Anxiety, and Depression
 Fewer Opportunities for Physical Activity
 Greater Exposure to Marketing of Obesity-Promoting Products
 Limited Access to Health Care

Global food security:

Since 1981, when World Food Day was first celebrated, that has always been the
concern. Every year, the event is given a theme (Food for All, Trees for Life, Youth
against Hunger, Fight Hunger to Reduce Poverty, Harvesting Nature’s Diversity, etc.). But
whatever they’re called, they’re more or less a variation of that same big concern food
security all over the world.
There are six major threats to Food Security:
1- Climate change:
Inarguably, this is food security’s biggest challenge. Climate change is a clear
indication that nature’s balance is messed up. Weather patterns become erratic and
more intense. Temperatures either go up or dip. Sea levels rise. And landscapes
drastically change. Obviously, agriculture takes a hit too because it depends so much
on nature on water, air, soil, and the weather. When plants refuse to flower
because it’s too humid, when pests abound because of hot temperatures, when
super typhoons destroy crops such as rice.
2- Aging farmers:
We have a lot to thank farmers for. That’s why the rapid decline of farmer’s old
farmers ageing out, with few young ones to replace them is a big concern. The next
generation is hesitant to go into farming because of lack of capital or own land.
Others are drawn to careers that are more financially-rewarding, easier, and
prestigious. And with climate change around, this poses uncertain problems for the
unprepared, aspiring farmer.
3- Massive bee die-offs:
It might be an exaggeration to say that when the bees go extinct, we die too because
after all, bees are responsible for pollinating majority of the food crops we depend
on. Other insect pollinators will take over the bees, they say, and life will go on for
us

4- Genetic engineering:
Plant genetic engineering has always prided itself as a well-meaning solution to
many of agriculture’s problems: how to resist pests, how to get better, faster yield,
how to have vitamin-fortified crops, how to fare in extreme weather conditions, etc.
If done correctly and morally, genetically modified food (GMO food) just might be
able to address the global food insecurity problem we have. Still, there are ethical
and health safety issues to consider. As a rule, nature does not like being messed
around with, and our interventions may have unintended, unforeseeable effects.
 5- Soil erosion:
According to the WWF, we’ve lost half of the topsoil on our planet in the last 150 years. That’s
pretty serious because the topsoil happens to be where plants get most of their nutrients.
Deforestation and incorrect agricultural practices such as overgrazing and use of pesticides are
to blame. The topsoil gets washed into our rivers and lakes, polluting them and affecting
aquatic life, or else they clog our waterways, and contribute to flooding.
Because we’re left with barren earth, we depend on chemical fertilizers to enrich the land.
6- Land “development”
Agricultural land turned into developed land is another serious threat to food security. Once
that land is “developed” for buildings, we forever lose one more patch of land that could have
been purposed for food production.

What causes Global Food crisis?

The increase in food prices in 2007 and 2008 has been widely documented, and has been
the subject of many macro-economic simulations and, more recently, field studies by a
number of different agencies. It attracted the attention of the international community to
global problems of food insecurity.
The world produces enough food to feed all 7.5 billion people, yet 1 in 9 people around the
world go hungry each day.

Causes of Global Food crisis:

Poverty:

Poverty and hunger exist in a vicious cycle. Families living in poverty usually can’t afford
nutritious food, leading to undernourishment. In turn, undernourishment makes it difficult for
people to earn more money so that they can afford healthy food.

Food Shortages:

Across Africa, including regions like the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, farming families
experience periods before harvests known as “hungry seasons.” These are the times of year
when food supplies from the previous harvest are exhausted, but the chance to replenish
supplies is still some time off. This leaves families forced to skip one (or more) meals each day
in the period before the next harvest which could be months away.

War and Conflict:

War and conflict are also among the leading contributors to world hunger. In South Sudan, civil
war has led to mass displacement and abandoned fields. The result is crop failure which,
combined with a soaring inflation rate that makes imported food unaffordable, has left 6
million people food-insecure. Likewise, Yemen’s ongoing conflict has led to over half the
country (approximately 17 million people) in need of urgent action in the absence of ongoing
humanitarian food assistance.

Poor Nutrition:

Hunger isn’t simply a lack of access to food; it’s a lack of access to the right nutrients. In order
to thrive, humans need a range of foods providing a variety of essential health benefits.

A lack of nutrition is especially important for pregnant and breastfeeding women and young
children: Nutrition support during pregnancy and up to the age of five can help protect children
for their entire lives.

Poor Public Policy:

Systemic problems, like poor infrastructure or low investment in agriculture, often prevent food
and water from reaching the world populations that need them the most.

Economy:

Much like the poverty-hunger cycle, a country’s economic resilience has a direct effect on its
nutritional resilience. For example, Liberia’s overall economic troubles deepened after the
Ebola outbreak in 2014. Five years later, 50% live below the poverty line. Working towards
economic stability overall will have a ripple effect on other causes of world hunger cited on this
list.

Food Wastage:

According to the World Food Programmed, 1/3 of all food produced over 1.3 billion tons of it is
never consumed. What’s more, producing this wasted food also uses other natural resources
that, when threatened, have a ripple effect in the countries that are already hit hardest by
hunger, poverty, and climate change. Producing this wasted food requires an amount of water
equal to the annual flow of Russia’s Volga River and adds 3.3 billion tons of greenhouse gases
to the atmosphere.

Gender Inequality:

In its Sustainable Development Goal 2, the UN reveals: “If women farmers had the same access
to resources as men, the number of hungry in the world could be reduced by up to 150
million.” Female farmers are responsible for growing, harvesting, preparing, and selling the
majority of food in poor countries. Women are on the frontlines of the fight against hunger, yet
they are frequently underrepresented at the forums where important decisions on policy and
resources are made.

Forced Migration:

Beyond war and conflict, a number of factors contribute to the causes of forced migration. This
includes hunger, but forced migration can also be a cause of hunger. Many refugees living
abroad live in neighboring countries with limited resources to begin with it.

Solutions for Global Food Crises:

Ending world hunger is conceptually quite simple. However, actually putting it into practice is
far from simple. First, the access to a healthy and varied diet needs to be recognized for the
basic human right that it clearly is. Governments must commit to ending hunger among their
people and they must take forceful action to carry out this commitment. In many countries,
even at this time, there is sufficient food produced to feed the entire population at a high level
of nutrition. This is, of course, most evident in the United States, where so much food is
produced. It is nothing less than a crime that so many of the poor in the United States are
hungry, malnourished, or don’t know where their next meal will come from (which itself takes a
psychological toll) when there is actually plenty of food.

In the short run, the emergency situation of increasingly severe hunger and malnutrition needs
be addressed with all resources at a country’s disposal. Although mass bulk distribution of
grains or powdered milk can play a role, countries might consider the Venezuelan innovation of
setting up feeding houses in all poor neighborhoods. When the people believe that the
government is really trying to help them, and they are empowered to find or assist in a solution
to their own problems, a burst of enthusiasm and volunteerism results. For example, although
the food in Venezuela’s feeding program is supplied by the government, the meals for poor
children, the elderly, and the infirm are prepared in, and distributed from, peoples’ homes
using considerable amounts of volunteer labor. In addition, Venezuela has developed a network
of stores that sell basic foodstuffs at significant discounts over prices charged in private
markets.

Today the attention of the world’s policy makers is focused on the sub-prime woes, and the
financial crises. But the real crisis is that of hunger and malnutrition...this is the real problem
that should grab the world’s attention. We know that 75 percent of the world’s poor people are
rural and most of them depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. Agriculture is today, more
than ever, a fundamental instrument for fighting hunger, malnutrition, and for supporting
sustainable development and poverty reduction. (All-Africa Global Media, February 19, 2008)

Almost every country in the world has the soil, water, and climate resources to grow enough
food so that all their people can eat a healthy diet. In addition, the knowledge and crop
varieties already exist in most countries so that if farmers are given adequate assistance they
will be able to grow reasonably high yields of crops.

Although enhanced agricultural production is essential, much of the emphasis in the past has
been on production of export crops. While this may help a country’s balance of payments,
export oriented agriculture does not ensure sufficient food for everyone nor does it promote a
healthy rural environment. In addition to basic commodities such as soybeans, export-oriented
agriculture also leads naturally to the production of high-value luxury crops demanded by
export markets (luxuries from the standpoint of the basic food needs of a poor third world
country), rather than the low-value subsistence crops needed to meet the needs of the
domestic population. Production of sufficient amounts of the right kinds of food within each
country’s borders—by small farmers working in cooperatives or on their own and using
sustainable techniques—is the best way to achieve the goal of “food security.” In this way the
population may be insulated, at least partially, from the price fluctuations on the world market.
This, of course, also means not taking land out of food production to produce crops for the
biofuel markets.

1. Dietary patterns

It is especially important that meat consumption and excess calories in countries with high
levels of meat consumption and obesity are reduced. Consuming far less meat provides the
greatest ability to feed more people with less land within the US, for example, where meat
consumption is particularly high. Every global study of diet and greenhouse gases indicates that
reduced meat consumption is the biggest driver of reducing greenhouse gas release via dietary
change. Approximately 1.1m hectares of excess corn production are needed to produce the
excess calories consumed by just Americans annually.

2. Production practices

Greater organic and agroecological strategies should be prioritised over highly industrialised
farming practices. These forms of farming use much less fertiliser – which is not only bad for
biodiversity but also produces high emissions. In 2011, agriculture in my home state of
Michigan collectively purchased about 200,000 metric tons of nitrogen fertiliser at a CO₂ cost of
1.34 million metric tons (the equivalent of that produced by 291,000 US cars in a year).
Meanwhile, organic bread wheat production in the UK appears to use less energy per ton than
conventional production, with very little of it accrued from nitrogen fertiliser production and
use.

3. Supply chains

Large quantities of food are needed for any city region – an American city region of a million
people will require about 900m kg of food annually. Although “food miles” are problematic as a
discriminator for greenhouse gas release, shorter supply chains are probably more amenable to
electric vehicle transportation than long-distance transport – and hence ultimately to
renewable energy use. As such, cities should aim to source their food from the surrounding
region rather than globally. Within city regions it should also be possible to use waste recycling
more robustly, creating carbon cycles as well as biogeochemical cycles for plant nutrients such
as phosphorus and nitrogen. Since phosphorus is essential and non-renewable while production
of nitrogen fertilisers requires a great input of energy this is very useful.

5. Concentrated production

Some crops are grown in an intensely concentrated manner, which leaves them vulnerable to
climate changes and pests. For example, over half of US fresh produce and nuts are grown in
California, and a number of these crops will be negatively impacted this century. While there is
research to develop more draught and heat tolerant varieties across a range of crops it also
seems prescient to distribute production more broadly. Variations in weather patterns can
make this a challenge. But structures such as poly tunnels can markedly expand the season – to
12 months for lettuce and an additional two-to-three months for tomatoes. And a number of
crops, for example apples, can be stored fresh for several months with controlled atmosphere
storage.

6. Reward structures

Making negative effects (or costs) of production (such as soil loss) transparent so that all costs
are accounted for and then rewarding farmers for things such as soil carbon sequestration,
minimised external inputs, and low energy use instead of just total production would greatly
help reduce these impacts.

7. Future protein sources

The idea of farming insects and jellyfish are just some examples of the innovative suggestions
that have been made for diversifying protein sources beyond meat and, say, soya. This would
allow for reduced levels of animal protein in the global north and increased levels in much of
the global south.

8. Public policy

Very little of the global north’s enormous farm policy budgets tend to be spent on policies such
as conservation, agroecological research, and organic production. Policies that stimulate new
farmer development, regional market and supply chain development (such as food hubs),
prioritise appropriate technology development at smaller scales and price points (including
robotics), sustainable energy production and research to minimise external inputs while
maintaining high productivity are needed in order to help propel their development.

All in all, much more attention needs to be paid on the sustainability of the planet’s urban food
systems. If the situation continues unchanged, our food supply chains will soon be in deep
trouble.
References:

Recent Food Security trends

https://gci.uq.edu.au/emerging-trends-world-food-security-policy-briefs

http://www.fao.org/state-of-food-security-nutrition/en/

Role of population, hunger and obesity in food security

http://www.ijmedrev.com/article_63022_988d97905ce592382643d21b3a1c05bb.pdf

http://frac.org/wp-content/uploads/frac_brief_understanding_the_connections.pdf

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/15-07-2019-world-hunger-is-still-not-going-down-
after-three-years-and-obesity-is-still-growing-un-report

https://populationmatters.org/sites/default/files/population-and-food-security.pdf

https://pai.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/PAI-1293-FOOD_compressed.pdf

https://www.populationconnection.org/population-growth-and-food-insecurity/

http://www.foodsystemprimer.org/food-and-nutrition/hunger-and-food

insecurity/index.html

https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/food/

https://www.worldvision.org/our-work/hunger-food-security

Threats and challenges for food security

http://csanr.wsu.edu/the-biggest-threat-to-food-security/

https://bee-inc.com/2014/10/15/threats-to-global-food-security/

What causes global food crisis

https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/earth-environment/global-food-crisis

https://odihpn.org/magazine/the-global-food-crisis-an-overview/

https://www.concernusa.org/story/top-causes-world-hunger/

https://businessconnectworld.com/2017/09/13/8-critical-factors-behind-food-crisis/

Solution for global food crisis

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2008/05/09/8-ways-to-fix-the-global-food-crisis

http://theconversation.com/eight-ways-to-halt-a-global-food-crisis-118436

http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/policy_research/resolving_food_crisis.html