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Copyright © 2017 by Dominic O’Farrell

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any
form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical
methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief
quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by
copyright law.
Contents

- Introduction

- Quick Start Guide

- Getting more advanced

- The Average Calculator

- Built-in Algorithm

- Conclusion
PD Football Tipster

Introduction

Welcome and many thanks for purchasing a copy of the PD Football Tipster.

This guide is to be used with alongside the PD Football Tipster calculator. The PD calculator is a unique
spreadsheet which I have developed and perfected over many years.

It allows you to use advanced mathematical models and algorithms such as those that traders and
professional tipsters use without having any advanced mathematical knowledge yourself.
Quick Start Guide

The following steps will enable you to analyse your first game in a matter of minutes.

1. Open the PD Football Tipster.

2. The four yellow boxes at cells B2,B3 and C2,C3 are the four input boxes. The next step is to find data
to enter here. Soccer stats websites will have this data readily available.

For this example I have selected a random game: Bray Wanders v Finn Harps, due to be played today
(28th July 2017) the day that this guide is being put together.
The image above shows the stats for each team. The stats we will use for this quick start guide are the
goals scored and conceded per match by each team. (Circled in Green). These are the average goals
scored by and conceded by each team in the season to date. We will use the total figure rather than
Home and Away figures.

The stats above are taken from the following page:


http://www.soccerstats.com/pmatch.asp?league=ireland&matchid=139&t1=6&t2=9&ly=2017

3. We now enter these figures in to the PD Football Tipster:

Once entered the spreadsheet calculates the probability for many different markets. Highlighting
those bets with a high probability of winning in green.

In the example we have used we can quickly observe the following:

- Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score both look good bets at 62.65% and 62.67%. The game
should produce goals.
- Bray should be slight favourites however at 46.22% not strong enough to tempt me to back
them.

You will notice that the spreadsheet has three tabs “Combined, Attack and Defence” ideally a good
bet should have high probability in all three tabs.

4. The results:

The game did indeed produce plenty of goals. With over 2.5 and both team to scores winning easily.

This is a good way to quickly select bets or multiple bets. Using this method you will get plenty of
winners. However as with most things in life, the more effort you put into the better the results will
be. Next I will talk you through some of the more advanced methods that can be used.
Getting More Advanced

Correct scores.

First a note on the correct scores market. As it is such a difficult market to predict any method to
predict a correct score must be advanced in nature.

Sticking with the example above we can see that at 9.83% a 1-1 draw is the highest rated. 9.83% is by
no ways a sure bet however, there is a 90.17% chance that it won’t a 1-1 draw.

To tackle the correct score market I recommend the following approach.

- First analyse the main markets on the left. We can tell from those that the following are likely
to happen:
o Home team will score 2 or more
o Away team will score at least 1
o The game should have more than 2 goals
o 46.22% chance that the home team will win

- With precedence given to these markets we should then get a feel for how the game should
go. And looking again at the correct scores the 8.83% for 2-1 home win looks the best bet.

However it is a tricky market and not one I would recommend a lot of investment in.
Variations of data.

In the quick start guide we used the total averages in the season to date for each team. These are
readily available and allow you time to analyse a match in a matter of minutes.

The data used can be varied and the PD Football Tipster gives you the freedom to experiment and
try out different system based on what you feel is most important.

A few things that you can try and can improve results are:

Home and Away averages

In the data above you can see that Galway Utds away performance is significantly worse than their
overall performance (Scoring 0.73 away compared to 1.09 overall, nearly half a goal difference per
game.). In games where there is a big difference in a team’s home and away performance it may
be more accurate to use the home/away stats for each team.

Shorter term data

Bookmakers tend to use long term data when compiling odds. This can provide an opportunity to
gain an edge as bookmakers can be reluctant to change odds if a big/small team is drastically out
of form or in form. In recent years this has happened with major teams such as Man United and
Ac Milan who despite losing plenty of games where still being made heavy favourites by the
bookmakers. Likewise Leicester in their title winning year where underrated week after week by
the bookmakers.

Using the data from just the last 6/8/12 games can throw up some great value bets.

Value betting

Ask any serious bettor what the key to making a long term profit is and they will undoubtedly
answer finding value bets.

Finding value betss is simply finding a bet in which the bookmarker has underestimated the
likelihood of a result occurring.

The best way to adopt this approach to betting is to start thinking in terms of percentages. E.g
1/1 or evs is equal to 50% (tools such as this will do the necessary maths for you). When analysing
a match you have to weigh up then whether the odds represent good value.

For e.g. if the probability in the PD Tipster is 55% but the odds offered are 1/2 (66%) then that
would not represent good value.

However if the probability is 55% and the odds offered are 11/10 (47%) then that would be good
value as the bookmaker is underestimating the probability of the result occurring.
The Average Calculator

Included with the PD Football Tipster is an additional sheet called the average calculator. This sheet is
your friend if you wish to build a strategy based on shorter term data.

When using the average calculator you first enter the results of the teams last 12 games. As in the
screenshot below.

Once this is done for each team it gives you several bits of information to analyse. It clearly and quickly
lists the averages for the last 6 games up until the last 12 games. Valuable information if you want to
build a short term data strategy.

It also includes charts which you can analyse.


From this example you can see that the home has taken a drastic downturn in defensive form and the
away teams form in attack and defence has been pretty consistent. So all points to a comfortable away
win. This example is from Drogheda vs St Patricks being played on 28 th July 2017. As per below the
game did end with and away win for St Patricks.

A Quick Note on Subjective Analysis

The PD Football Tipster is largely an objective tool for football betting. It analyses the data and
calculates probabilities without considering a number of variables that are important. Variables that
are known to most football fans. Consideration to these factors will only lead to increased
performance. Before a bet is selected you should be checking the following:

- Injuries/suspension to any key players

- Any managerial changes

- Whether one team has a big cup game coming up next and are resting players.
- Whether one team played an away game in Europe during the week before and could be
suffering from fatigue.

- Particularly near the end of the season caution should be used in games in which one team
has something to play for (title/relegation contenders playing against a team who have
nothing to play for). In general the last 5 games and the first 5 games of a season tend to be
the most unpredictable.
Built-in Algorithms

If you want selections quick you can simply use the method outlined in the quick start guide. Most

customers use this method and are happy with the number of winners they get from using it. In

addition to that I have included several algorithms that I have created and refined. The algorithms

are designed to be used quickly and should be used with the total averages goals scored and

conceded for each team in the season to date. They are as follows:

Over 3.5 Algorithm – Risk: Medium

Medium risk however should get odds. This algorithm tries to catch teams that are capable of

scoring but that also have leaky defences.

Over 2.5 Algorithm – Risk: Low

Lower odds but lower risk. Highlights games that will likely have goals but also eliminates games

which have a high chance of being a draw, with cagey games being less likely to produce fewer goals.

Home Win Algorithm Risk: Low – Away Win Algorithm Risk: Medium

Both try to highlight games in which one team has consistent superiority to the other.
Conclusion

Hopefully this guide will have given the tools and knowledge to get the most out of the PD Football
Tipster. If you have any queries I am happy to answer them at any time. Just send an email to:
pdfootytipster@gmail.com.

Best of luck and remember to bet safe. If you feel that gambling becoming a problem to you please
visit: http://www.gamcare.org.uk/