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investment manager
5 19 6 50+
partners employees offices startup investments
100+
years collective financial
markets & investment
experience
w stages of growth for an entrepreneurial company
alterna've
investment
manager
Return
Risk
Seed/Start-Up Stage Early Expansion Expansion Stage Later Stage
30x
Accelerators
Angel Investors
10x
Venture Capital
VC
Private Equity
5x
$
Equity Markets
Artesian AFOF:
the fund gains
2x exposure to a
diversified portfolio Commercial Banks
of high-growth
startups
Avg. Raising $50K $100K $200K $500K $1M $2M $5M $10M $20M $50M $100M $200M+
alterna've
investment
manager
70
60
50
40
Projec'ons
based
on
current
data
30
20
10
0
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year (each data point represents a rolling 7-year average of average lifespan)
Source: Innosight/Richard N. Foster/S&P
w startup disruption
alterna've
investment
manager
• low barriers to entry & big exits creating far more startup supply
• big exits occur with very small amounts of lifetime capital
BIFURCATION
BY INDUSTRY
Life
Sciences,
Internet
Clean
Tech
SWEET SPOT
1,021 M&A deals
• 94% corporate purchaser
• 40-88% <$100M valuation
CHARACTERISTICS SYSTEMIC
CHALLENGE
OF TRADITIONAL VC PROBLEMS
Increased supply:
How do you scale
1 3-4 General Partners 1,000-2,000 startups
per year
analysis?
$5-10M investment
Less lifetime capital Bifurcation:
4 (at a $10-$20M
valuation)
required to exit Micro or mega VC?
Picking Winners
Avoiding Losers
(Concentrated Portfolio)
(Diversified Portfolio)
Early Stage Investing: Avoiding Losers Later Stage Investing: Picking Winners
there are an infinite number of unpredictable exogenous factors that can derail technology startups
you need at least 15 early stage investments to have a 90% confidence of getting your money back 1
“The production of cash is highly concentrated in winners; 90% of all cash returns are produced by 10% of portfolio” 2
7
5
2
4
10
6
9
3
1
8
Industrial Late
Stage US Angel Market:
Average IRR 27%
Technology or 2.5x over ~5yrs
Restaurant 30% + IRR
Seed stage
technology
35% + IRR
Retail
Capital
efficient
Health technology
Care 40% + IRR
Number of
Probability investments in
portfolio
100%
80%
200 investments
A US based study of angel investments
75% by the Kaufmann Institute found
average IRR of diversified portfolio of
70% 27% or payoff of ~2.5x 100 investments
65%
With 25 investments 50 investments
60% you have a 65%
probability of
achieving a 2.5x return
55% on your portfolio
25 investments
50%
> 0.5x > 0.75x > 1.0x > 1.5x > 2.0x > 2.5x > 3.0x Return
CHARACTERISTICS SYSTEMIC
CHALLENGE SOLUTION
OF TRADITIONAL VC PROBLEMS
PARTICIPANTS
Makers Fund 60
Raising $1M of a
BlueChilli Venture Fund 100! $2.5M round at
~$18M valuation
10,000+! iAccelerate Fund (UoW) 100! 750! 200! 50!
30 Sep
Makers Fund
Healthcare
Melbourne
ilab (UoQ)
Other
Other
$50M soft
$35M committed $100M Capacity Constraint
close
$0M $10M $20M $30M $40M $50M $60M $70M $80M $90M $100M
Technology
Resources
Financial
Media
Retail
Telco
w investment approach
alterna've
investment
manager
because: because:
u valuation is critical u expect >50% failure
u minimal ‘professional’ competition u 10% of exits => 75% of total return
u expected return on a successful u diversification - difficult to pick
exit is very high winners, but filter to avoid losers
because: because:
u highly scalable u sub-$50M M&A is an active and
u can produce 10x+ investment liquid exit market
returns at sub-$50M valuations u exits tend to come in 3-6 years
u greater range of exit strategies rather than 8-12
and more flexibility for founders u returns are not strongly correlated
with traditional VC & PE returns
w Financial + Strategic Returns
alterna've
investment
manager
10,000+
startup applications screened
500 -1,000
seed investments
FINANCIAL RETURN
20% IRR (tax free)
PROPOSITION FOR PROPOSITION FOR
PASSIVE INVESTOR ACTIVE INVESTOR
alterna've
investment
manager
The Fund
w fund summary
alterna've
investment
manager
2 Portfolio Size: 5-15 underlying LPs (with total of 500-1,000 startup investments)
4 Investment Return: 7-10 years (5 year investment period from final closing)
7 Minimum Investment: $100K (drawn down over 5 years – approximately $20K per year)
2 4
Extreme information obtained. In research and entrepreneurship,
Bunched
Outcomes being a flaneur is called “looking for optionality.”
Outcomes
Acquiring optionality is best accomplished via
“If you ‘have optionality,’ you don’t have much need for
what is commonly called intelligence, knowledge, insight,
Risk Uncertainty skills, and these complicated things that take place in our
brain cells. For you don’t have to be right that often. All
you need is the wisdom to not do unintelligent things to
hurt yourself (some acts of omission) and recognize
favorable outcomes when they occur. (The key is that
Statistical Simple Statistical your assessment doesn’t need to be made beforehand,
Analysis Payoffs Analysis only after the outcome.)”
Fund Untaxed Profit CGT Non tax Non tax Non tax ESVCLP Additional
IRR Amount Amount1 free fund free fund free fund fund post- return on
after 5 post-tax post-tax post-tax tax return investment
years profit Amount return through
ESVCLP fund