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Indigo
Prepared By: Sumit Todi , Tushar Bhat
Year 2017
http://proschoolonline.com
Email ID : mumbai@proschoolonline.com
Mumbai
Passenger
Passenger Revenue
tcket revenue 23,260 33,910
Ancillary
revenue 2,765 4,357
operatng 11.89% 12.85%
revenue 30 68
0.13% 0.20%
Other Income 622 1107
2.67% 3.27%
Total Revenue 26,677 39,442
related
services
(b) Cargo 934 1508
services
(c) Tours and 1565 2451
packages – 1
In-flight sales 256 384
Advertsement 10 12
Commission
Products and – –
Services 2765 4357
Lease Payments
Operatng Lease Expense
Finance Lease Interest Payment
Finance Lease Principal Payment 10% 10%
2010 2011
Aircraf
Cash andand engine rentals
non-cash 4,704 6,372
incentves -1,941 -2,274
Aircraf and engine rentals (net) 2,763 4,098
Finance lease charges (Interest) 88 300
Finance lease charges paid 81 302
Total Finance % 3% 9%
Total Lease Payment 4,872 6,975
Total Lease Payment ( Net of Incentive ) 2,931 4,701
Number of Planes 25 39
195 179
operatng Lease
Capitalized Operatng Lease 1 Year 1-5 Year
25603 54160
>5 Years 1 2 3 4 5
3446 25603 13540 13540 13540 13540
23171 11089 10035 9082 8219
>5 Years 1 2 3 4 5
11336 2993 2995 2995 2995 2995
12 24 36 48 60
6 7 8 9 10
689 689 689 689 689 10.50%
379 343 310 281 254 63161
6 7 8 9 10
2267 2267 2267 2267 2267 10.50%
72 84 96 108 120 660
Year 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
RPK (in million) 55020 65238 77342 91678
ASK (in million) 65500 78600 94319 113183
Passenger Load Factor (%) 84% 83% 82% 81%
RASK (Rs.) 3.02 3.07 3.12 3.16
Yield (Rs.) 3.60 3.70 3.80 3.90
Passenger Ticket Revenue 198026 241327 293837 357472
0%
4.5
3.5
3
Axis Title
2.5
19%
2
3.00% 1.5
0.5
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
2023E
460
Year
Ancillary 2018E 2019E
revenue 29313 35175
operatng 13.50% 13.50%
revenue 1695 2190
0.78% 0.84%
Other Income 6514 7817
3.00% 3.00%
2022E
108656
135820
80%
3.20
4.00
434536
h Vs Efficiency
86.00%
84.00%
82.00%
80.00%
78.00%
76.00%
74.00%
72.00%
14 2015 2016 2017
354
58.17 45.94
56.49 45.85
Interglobe Aviaton
Template
All Data in Millions INR, except per share
(Red=Assumpton, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculaton)
Date Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16
Year 2011-A 2012-A 2013-A 2014-A 2015-A 2016-A
Tangible assets
Opening Balance 39,407 48,664
Additon 10,777 1,945
Depreciaton -2,942 -4,914
Adjustments 1,422 1,060
Closing Balance 48,664 46,755
Additon to Aircaf 4
Gross Amount of additon 9860
Cost per aircraf 2465
Intangible assets
Opening Balance 152 96
Additon 25 220
Amortsaton -81 -117
Adjustments 0 -0
Closing Balance 96 200
6 6 6 6 6
9828 10140 10452 10764 11076 800
1638 1690 1742 1794 1846 26
30.76923
-9.2% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2% -9.2%
Passenger
tcket revenue
Ancillary 33,910 49,873 82,667 99,240 122939
revenue
operatng 4,357 5,680 9,253 11,553 15,725
revenue 68 93 111 373 590
Other Income 1107 1440 2371 3155 3946
Total Revenue 39,442 57,086 94,402 114,321 143,199
Aircraf fuel expenses 15,213 28,736 43,126 55,134 57,485
38.57% 50.34% 45.68% 48.23% 40.14%
Aircraf and engine rentals 6,372 10,634 17,150 20,310 23,076
16.16% 18.63% 18.17% 17.77% 16.11%
Incentves -2,274 -2,627 -3,588 -3,607 -3,553
-35.68% -24.71% -20.92% -17.76% -15.40%
Purchase of stock in trade 191 342 560 590 817
Change in inventories of 0.48% 0.60% 0.59% 0.52% 0.57%
stock in trade -1 -7 -19 7 -32
Employee benefits 2,930 5,119 6,905 9,211 11,887
7.43% 8.97% 7.31% 8.06% 8.30%
Finance costs 450 514 578 1,226 1,155
Depreciaton and 1.14% 0.90% 0.61% 1.07% 0.81%
Amortzaton 629 665 856 2,260 3,022
1.59% 1.17% 0.91% 1.98% 2.11%
Other Expenses 8,784 12,961 18,961 24,472 30,877
22.27% 22.70% 20.09% 21.41% 21.56%
Total Expenses 32,294 56,337 84,529 109,602 124,734
58985.5
Year 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
USD/INR E 63 65 67 69 71
Brent ($) E 67.5 75 75 75 75
USD/INR * Brent ($) 4252.5 4875 5025 5175 5325
Change (%) 3.58% 14.64% 3.08% 2.99% 2.90%
ATF Forecast Price 61095 70039 72194 74349 76504
ATF Price
Date (Rs) USD/INR Brent ($) MCX
April 01, 2010 44361.8 44.76 82.63 3699
May 01, 2010 46016.4 4% 44.52 4% 88.09 7% 3922
June 01, 2010 42951.23 -7% 46.5125 -7% 73.08 -17% 3399
July 01, 2010 45016.69 5% 46.74 5% 71.73 -2% 3353
August 01, 2010 44697.15 -1% 46.19 -1% 81.93 14% 3784
September 01, 2010 43596.4 -2% 46.92 -2% 75.53 -8% 3544
October 01, 2010 44195.27 1% 44.77 1% 82.69 9% 3702
November 01, 2010 45777 4% 44.35 4% 84.06 2% 3728
December 01, 2010 47892.12 5% 45.87 5% 88.56 5% 4062
January 01, 2011 50576.88 6% 44.76 6% 95.82 8% 4289
February 01, 2011 53872.27 7% 45.85 7% 100.4 5% 4603
March 01, 2011 58021.29 8% 45.18 8% 113.34 13% 5121
April 01, 2011 62458.1 8% 44.44 8% 118.63 5% 5272
May 01, 2011 63967.75 2% 44.29 2% 121.55 2% 5383
June 01, 2011 59747.97 -7% 44.985 -7% 115.09 -5% 5177
July 01, 2011 59498.08 0% 44.65 0% 113.55 -1% 5070
August 01, 2011 61142.5 3% 44.04 3% 113.74 0% 5009
September 01, 2011 59492 -3% 45.98 -3% 117.5 3% 5403
October 01, 2011 61886.75 4% 49.48 4% 104.38 -11% 5165
November 01, 2011 64490.42 4% 48.83 4% 112.22 8% 5480
December 01, 2011 68172.65 6% 51.85 6% 110.16 -2% 5712
January 01, 2012 66600.06 -2% 53.3 -2% 111.07 1% 5920
February 01, 2012 66407.39 0% 49.59 0% 116.86 5% 5795
March 01, 2012 68179.9 3% 49.075 3% 125.37 7% 6153
April 01, 2012 71514.1 5% 50.61 5% 121.89 -3% 6169
May 01, 2012 71028.24 -1% 52.65 -1% 111.89 -8% 5891
June 01, 2012 69315.5 -2% 56.24 -2% 98.6 -12% 5545
July 01, 2012 64652 -7% 55.5 -7% 99.23 1% 5507
August 01, 2012 68561.29 6% 55.65 6% 113.52 14% 6317
September 01, 2012 75263.34 10% 55.525 10% 114.86 1% 6378
October 01, 2012 73406.57 -2% 52.995 -2% 114.32 0% 6058
November 01, 2012 71455.93 -3% 53.805 -3% 108.61 -5% 5844
December 01, 2012 70760.79 -1% 54.265 -1% 107.6 -1% 5839
January 01, 2013 70473.55 0% 54.84 0% 112.97 5% 6195
February 01, 2013 71872.72 2% 53.225 2% 118.29 5% 6296
March 01, 2013 74502.55 4% 54.355 4% 108.64 -8% 5905
April 01, 2013 70671.51 -5% 54.285 -5% 104.08 -4% 5650
May 01, 2013 66995.1 -5% 53.805 -5% 103.59 0% 5574
June 01, 2013 66745.17 0% 56.51 0% 101.5 -2% 5736
July 01, 2013 70506.75 6% 59.385 6% 108.43 7% 6439
August 01, 2013 74827.65 6% 60.41 6% 108.49 0% 6554
September 01, 2013 80012.24 7% 65.75 7% 112.37 4% 7388
October 01, 2013 82073.54 3% 62.6 3% 109.02 -3% 6825
November 01, 2013 78427.93 -4% 61.51 -4% 105.76 -3% 6505
December 01, 2013 79031.94 1% 62.35 1% 108.91 3% 6791
January 01, 2014 81109.53 3% 61.8 3% 106.44 -2% 6578
February 01, 2014 78878.31 -3% 62.7 -3% 110.18 4% 6908
March 01, 2014 79712.86 1% 61.95 1% 108.27 -2% 6707
April 01, 2014 76610.86 -4% 59.85 -4% 105.83 -2% 6334
May 01, 2014 75796.83 -1% 60.22 -1% 108.19 2% 6515
June 01, 2014 74401.78 -2% 59.27 -2% 109.21 1% 6473
July 01, 2014 74794.07 1% 60.1 1% 107.65 -1% 6470
August 01, 2014 74690.47 0% 60.75 0% 104.02 -3% 6319
September 01, 2014 74248.5 -1% 60.5 -1% 99.53 -4% 6022
October 01, 2014 72071.15 -3% 61.95 -3% 90.9 -9% 5631
November 01, 2014 66899.8 -7% 61.5 -7% 83.2 -8% 5117
December 01, 2014 64145 -4% 62.25 -4% 68 -18% 4233
January 01, 2015 56316.75 -12% 63.17 -12% 49.43 -27% 3122
February 01, 2015 50207.86 -11% 62 -11% 57 15% 3534
March 01, 2015 54223 8% 61.9 8% 59.15 4% 3661
April 01, 2015 53280.5 -2% 62.04 -2% 57.55 -3% 3570
May 01, 2015 53589.18 1% 63.54 1% 64.93 13% 4126
June 01, 2015 57433.28 7% 63.8 7% 60.36 -7% 3851
July 01, 2015 55291.01 -4% 63.66 -4% 54.72 -9% 3483
August 01, 2015 50204.43 -9% 64.01 -9% 47.54 -13% 3043
September 01, 2015 44388.06 -12% 66.45 -12% 46.42 -2% 3085
October 01, 2015 46716.48 5% 65.58 5% 51.66 11% 3388
November 01, 2015 46493.61 0% 65.38 0% 46.09 -11% 3013
December 01, 2015 46406.12 0% 66.52 0% 39.69 -14% 2640
January 01, 2016 41922.23 -10% 66.18 -10% 33.57 -15% 2222
February 01,2016 37121.79 -11% 67.77 -11% 32.76 -2% 2220
March 01,2016 41439.27 12% 68.27 12% 37.61 15% 2568
April 01,2016 43960.29 6% 66.3 6% 37.77 0% 2504
May 01,2016 44362.04 1% 66.41 1% 44.39 18% 2948
June 01,2016 48331.8 9% 67.24 9% 48.94 10% 3291
July 01,2016 50958.7 5% 67.5 5% 45.7 -7% 3085
August 01,2016 48882.44 -4% 66.8 -4% 40.45 -11% 2702
September 01,2016 47050.97 -4% 66.85 -4% 46.72 16% 3123
October 01,2016 48442.31 3% 66.54 3% 49.57 6% 3298
November 01,2016 51901.2 7% 66.72 7% 43.06 -13% 2873
December 01,2016 49998.03 -4% 68.52 -4% 52.31 21% 3584
January 01, 2017 54213.92 8% 67.95 8% 55.9 7% 3798
February 01,2017 55817.39 3% 67.62 3% 55.92 0% 3781
March 01,2017 56104.9 1% 66.7275 1% 54.16 -3% 3614
April 01, 2017 53242.5 -5% 64.805 -5% 53.08 -2% 3440
May 01, 2017 53435.25 0% 64.185 0% 49.31 -7% 3165
June 01, 2017 51442.25 -4% 64.485 -4% 50.41 2% 3251
July 01, 2017 48646.25 -5% 64.685 -5% 49.13 -3% 3178
August 01, 2017 50259.33 3% 64.105 3% 51.99 6% 3333
September 01,2017 51639.75 3% 63.94 3% 52.69 1% 3369
October 01,2017 54617.5 6% 65.62 6% 58.8 12% 3858
November 01,2017 55746.25 2% 64.715 2% 60.65 3% 3925
December 01,2017 58985.5 6% 64.595 6% 63.56 5% 4106
2018 61095.2 4% 63 68 6% 4253
2019 63280.3 7% 65 70 4550
2020 65543.5 3% 67 70 4690
2021 67887.7 3% 69 70 4830
2022 70315.8 3% 71 70 4970
1 3 1 3 1 3 1 4 14 1 4 1 4 14 1 4 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 5 1 6 1 6 16 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7 1 7
20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 , 20 ,20 ,20 ,20 ,20 ,20 ,20 ,20 , 20 , 20 , 20 ,20 ,20
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
r 01 r 01 y 01 l 01 e 01 t 01 r 01 r 01 y 01 l 01 e 01 t 01 r 01 r 01 y 0 i l 0 e 0 st 0 r 0 r 0 y 0 l 01 e 01 t 01 r 0 r 0
e be a r pr un u be be a r pr un u be be a p u gu b b a pr un u b be
i s i s r r n e e r i s e
J ug to m ru A J ug to m ru A J Au cto em ru A J ug cto em
em ru A A Oc ce eb A Oc ce Feb O ec Feb A O ec
ec Feb De F De D D
Q2 Q1
O 64.685 64.805
C 65.28 64.575
1000 1000
-0.595 0.23 900 48
-595 230 270
460000000 346000000 630 13.125
-773109.24 1504347.8
23.266447
Additonal Aircraf 16 11 11 17 13
24 29 11 34 41 49
Net increase / (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents -84 2114 -1123 -334 1353
Deposits
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Mar/19 Mar/20 Mar/21 Mar/22
2016-A 2017-A 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
57 47
Terminal Value
Sum of PV of Cash Flows 214,275
Perpetual Value of Growth 3.00%
Present Value of Terminal Value 353,748
Book Value of Debt 50,779
Enterprise Value 702,262
Value of Non-Operatng Assets 83,460
Equity Value 651,483
Value Per Share 1,698
1
COST OF EQUITY
s before interest and taxes 24,751 Rf 7.55%
t interest expenses 3,308.00 Bottom Up Beta 0.72
coverage rato 7.48 Rm 14.82%
ed Bond Ratng Aa2/AA Rm - Rf 7.27%
y Risk Free Rate 7.55% Cost Of Equity 12.82%
ny Default Spread 1.00%
y Default Spread 1.95%
10.50%