Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Standard example:
m p s
'First Generation' Currency Crisis Model
Naive mechanism:
• disequilibrium in the foreign exchange market ->
interventions of central bank -> decline of reserves -> at
some stage, central bank had to float because of depletion of
reserves
* ds
m s p y i
*
dt
ds
m s y i p
* *
dt
:
ds
m s .
dt
ds
With a fixed exchange rate s : 0, therefore :
dt
ms
Money supply is the sum of the domestic central bank loans
D and central bank’s reserves of foreign currency, R:
m=D+R
m DR s
dR dD
.
dt dt
Rt R0 t , (t time),
R0
T1 .
'First Generation' Currency Crisis Model
Problem:
ds
m s*
dt
since:
ds dp dm dD
.
dt dt dt dt
Therefore: *
s m
D R .
At the time of attack T2 we have
s * (t T2 ) D0 t R .
=0
The attack occurs as soon as the shadow rate equals the fixed
rate:
s s* ( T2 ) D0 t
s D0
T2 .
Because of s m D0 R 0 - it is
R0 R0
T2 T1 .
Fig. 1: The early
collapse of a fixed
exchange rate system
in the Krugman
model
Preventing speculative attack by a Tobin Tax?
* ds
Modified UIP: i (1 ) i , : tax rate
dt
therefore:
ds
m s y (1 )i p (1 ) ,
* *
dt
~
y (1 )i p
* *
Tobin Tax in 'First Generation' Currency Crisis Model
~
D0 t R (1 ) .
Timing of attack:
~
s D0 (1 )
s s (T2 ) T2 ( )
*
.
~ R0
Because of s D 0 R0 T2 ( ) (1 ).
Conclusion: Speculative attack does not prevent but only
postpone an attack
Expected change of the central bank's policy:
Market participants expect that after a successful attack the
central bank will stop its expansionary policy with a certain
probability (1 - q):
ds
E q .
dt
s* D0 t R q ,
R0
T2 ( q ) q .
Assumptions:
• given amount of reserves R of the central bank as fundamentals
• both speculators have a given amount of domestic currency D at
their disposal
• in case of attack, they incur costs of 1 unit of currency
(opportunity costs, bid-ask spread)
• if attack is successful, central bank devaluates the currency by
50%
Speculators‘ payoffs:
• Unsuccessful attack: cost of 1 leads to payoff of -1
• Successful attack: gains form depreciation of 50% minus costs
Consequences:
• multiple equilibria can occur and depend on the quality of the
fundamental data (here summarized through R)
• an attack implies coordination of participants‘ expectations:
an attack can occur at any time but it might also be delayed
for a long time
• potential mechanisms for coordination: political events,
announcments, behavior of important market participants (e.g.
Soros)
Multiple equilibria in a Krugman-type model:
New assumption:
• expected change in the growth rate of money supply if parity
is abandoned: μ1 > μ0
• analogy to the EMS situation: dropping out of the system
would have implied that the convergence criteria of the
Maastricht Agreement no longer have to be adhered to and a
domestically preferred expansive policy could have been
realized.
Multiple equilibria in a Krugman-type model:
no policy change:
attack in T2(μ0).
expected policy
change: attack
between T2(μ0).and
T2(μ1).
Multiple equilibria as a result of ‘optimizing’ policy
* 2
L (y - y ) cz
then: s s ( s* )
if it is credible:
ds
E 0
dt
Loss becomes:
* *
2
L a(s - s ) b( s s ) cz
( a b )( s s ) cz
* 2
Policy options
( a b )( s s )
* 2
c
(a(s - s* ))2 c
a(s - s )
* 2
*
c (a b)(s - s ) 2
Multiple equilibria
Beginning of September
• Finland abandons its target zone, Sweden and Ireland
raise short term interest rates up to 500% (p.a.),
• Realignment of Lira (depreciates 7%)
Chronology of the EMS-Crisis
November
• Floatation of Swedish Krona (depreciates by 12,5%) and
Norwegian Krona,
• Realignments of Span. Peseta and Port. Escudo (-6%)
January of 1993
• Depreciation of the Irish Pound (-10%)
May
• Depreciation of Span. Peseta and Port. Escudo (-6,5%)
July
• Transition to target zone with bandwidth ~ ±5%.
Application of 2nd generation model to EMS
Unresolved problems:
• no explanation of the process of coordination
• no information on selection of equilibria
Banking and Currency Crisis in Southeast Asia:
“Third Generation of Models”
no “peso”
phenomenon
Course of events:
Proposed explanations:
R( 1 tr )
c2 R
1t
in T=2, where t: proportion of consumers who withdraw deposits in T=1.
2 Nash equilibria:
(2) Bank panic: all creditors withdraw their funds, i.e. t=1, R=0 < r and
it is rational for each agent to withdraw funds if all others do this.
Implication for the real side: profitable investments must be
abandoned.
Conjecture:
Deregulation of financial markets and explicit (or implicit)
guarantees by national governments and supranational
institutions led to overinvestment and moral hazard.
Illustration:
Q ( a0 w )K a1K 2
dE [ Q ]
a0 E [ w ] 2a1 K i
dK
* a0 E [ w ] i
K
2 a1
Gurantees have the following effect:
** a0 w i
K overinvestment of K** - K*!
2a1
• overinvestment only becomes evident if negative realization
occurs,
• guarantees are not sustainable and capital is withdrawn.
Consequences for stock markets:
AAA
Loans
Loans A
Loans
Loans
Loans
Loans BB
Loans
mostly equity piece
kept / first loss
Bank sells part of his loans SPV pools cash Investors buy CDOs (differ in
to the SPV. flows and passes riskiness) and receive interest
Balance sheet: cash against them to tranches and principal from the
loans by seniority underlying loans
The Complexity Tree: What you would have to know to
evaluate typical credit derivatives