Statistics & Probability

Review on
Probability
 PROBABILITY EXPERIMENTS

A probability experiment is an action through which specific

results (counts, measurements or responses) are obtained.
Example:
Rolling a die and observing the
number that is rolled is a probability
experiment.
The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the
outcome.
The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the
sample space.
Example:
The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes.
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
 EVENTS

An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset

of the sample space.
Events are represented
by uppercase letters.
Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
A simple event is an event that consists of a single
outcome.
Example:
A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
This is not a simple event because the outcomes of
event A are {2, 4, 6}.
 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY

Classical (or theoretical) probability is used when each

outcome in a sample space is equally likely to occur. The
classical probability for event E is given by
Number of outcomes in event
P (E )  .
Total number of outcomes in sample space
Example:
A die is rolled.
Find the probability of Event A: rolling a 5.
There is one outcome in Event A: {5}
1
“Probability of
P(A) = 6  0.167
Event A.”
 EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
Empirical (or statistical) probability is based on
observations obtained from probability experiments. The
empirical frequency of an event E is the relative frequency
of event E. Frequency of Event E
P (E ) 
Total frequency

f
Example: n
A travel agent determines that in every 50 reservations
she makes, 12 will be for a cruise.
What is the probability that the next reservation she
makes will be for a cruise?
12
P(cruise) = 50  0.24
 LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
As an experiment is repeated over and over, the empirical
probability of an event approaches the theoretical (actual)
probability of the event.
Example:
Sally flips a coin 20 times and gets 3 heads. The
empirical probability is 3 . This is not representative of
20
the theoretical probability which is 12 . As the number
of times Sally tosses the coin increases, the law of large
numbers indicates that the empirical probability will
get closer and closer to the theoretical probability.
 PROBABILITIES WITH
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION
Example:
The following frequency distribution represents the ages
of 30 students in a statistics class. What is the probability
that a student is between 26 and 33 years old?

Ages Frequency, f
8
18 – 25 13 P (age 26 to 33) 
30
26 – 33 8  0.267
34 – 41 4
42 – 49 3
50 – 57 2
 f  30
 SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY

Subjective probability results from intuition, educated

guesses, and estimates.
Example:
A business analyst predicts that the probability of a
certain union going on strike is 0.15.
Range of Probabilities Rule
The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1,
inclusive. That is
0  P(A)  1.
Impossible 0.5 Certain
to occur Even to occur
chance
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
The complement of Event E is the set of all outcomes
in the sample space that are not included in event E.
(Denoted E′ and read “E prime.”)
P(E) + P (E′ ) = 1 P(E) = 1 – P (E′ ) P (E′ ) = 1 – P(E)
Example:
There are 5 red chips, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in
a basket. Find the probability of randomly selecting a
chip that is not blue.
4
P (selecting a blue chip)  15  0.267
4 11
P (not selecting a blue chip) 1  
15 15
 0.733
 BASIC CONCEPTS ON PROBABILITY
EXERCISE
Determine whether the statement is true or false. If it is
false, rewrite it as a true statement.

1. You toss a coin and roll a die. The event “tossing tails
and rolling a 1 or a 3” is a simple event.
2. You toss a fair coin nine times and it lands tails up
each time. The probability it will land heads up on
the tenth toss is greater than 0.5.
1
3. A probability of indicates an unusual event.
10
4. When an event is almost certain to happen, its
complement will be an unusual event.
 BASIC CONCEPTS ON PROBABILITY
EXERCISE
Match the event with its probability.
(a) 0.95 (b) 0.05 (c) 0.25 (d) 0

1. You toss a coin and randomly select a number from 0 to 9.

What is the probability of tossing tails and selecting a 3?
2. A random number generator is used to select a number
from 1 to 100. What is the probability of selecting the
number 153?
3. A game show contestant must randomly select a door. One
door doubles her money while the other three doors leave
her with no winnings. What is the probability she selects the
door that doubles her money?
 BASIC CONCEPTS ON PROBABILITY
EXERCISE
Determine the number of outcomes in the event. Then
decide whether the event is a simple event or not. Explain
your reasoning.
1. A computer is used to randomly select a number from 1
to 2000. Event A is selecting the number 253.
2. A computer is used to randomly select a number from 1
to 4000. Event B is selecting a number less than 500.
3.You randomly select one card from a standard deck of 52
playing cards. Event A is selecting an ace.
4.You randomly select one card from a standard deck of 52
playing cards. Event B is selecting the ten of diamonds.
 BASIC CONCEPTS ON PROBABILITY
EXERCISE
A probability experiment consists of rolling a 12-sided die.
Find the probability of the event.

1. Event A: rolling a 2
2. Event B: rolling a 10
3. Event C: rolling a number greater than 4
4. Event D: rolling a number less than 8
5. Event E: rolling a number divisible by 3
6. Event F: rolling a number divisible by 5
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
A conditional probability is the probability of an event
occurring, given that another event has already occurred.
P (B |A) “Probability of B, given A”
Example:
There are 5 red chip, 4 blue chips, and 6 white chips in a
basket. Two chips are randomly selected. Find the
probability that the second chip is red given that the first
chip is blue. (Assume that the first chip is not replaced.)
Because the first chip is selected and not replaced,
there are only 14 chips remaining.
5
P (selecting a red chip|first chip is blue) 14  0.357

 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
100 college students were surveyed and asked how many
hours a week they spent studying. The results are in the
table below. Find the probability that a student spends more
than 10 hours studying given that the student is a male.
Less More
5 to 10 Total
then 5 than 10
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100
The sample space consists of the 49 male students. Of
these 49, 16 spend more than 10 hours a week
studying.
16
P (more than 10 hours|male)   0.327
49
 INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of
the events does not affect the probability of the other
event. Two events A and B are independent if
P (B |A) = P (B) or if P (A |B) = P (A).
Events that are not independent are dependent.
Example:
Decide if the events are independent or dependent.
Selecting a diamond from a standard deck of 
cards (A), putting it back in the deck, and then 
selecting a spade from the deck (B).
The occurrence of A does not
P (B A )  13  1 and P (B )  13  1 . affect the probability of B, so the
52 4 52 4 events are independent.
 MULTIPLICATION RULE
The probability that two events, A and B will occur in
sequence is
P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B |A).
If event A and B are independent, then the rule can be
simplified to P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B).
Example:
Two cards are selected, without replacement, from a
deck. Find the probability of selecting a diamond, and
then selecting a spade.
Because the card is not replaced, the events are dependent.
P (diamond and spade) = P (diamond) · P (spade |diamond).
13 13 169
    0.064
52 51 2652
 MULTIPLICATION RULE

A die is rolled and two coins are tossed.

Find the probability of rolling a 5, and flipping two tails.
1
P (rolling a 5) = 6 .
1
Whether or not the roll is a 5, P (Tail ) = 2 ,
so the events are independent.

P (5 and T and T ) = P (5)· P (T )· P (T )

1 1 1
  
6 2 2
1
  0.042
24
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
EXERCISE
Determine whether the events are independent or
dependent. Explain your reasoning.
1. Selecting a king from a standard deck of 52 playing cards,
replacing it, and then selecting a queen from the deck
2. Returning a rented movie after the due date and
receiving a late fee
3. A father having hazel eyes and a daughter having hazel
eyes
4. Not putting money in a parking meter and getting a
parking ticket
5. Rolling a six-sided die and then rolling the die a second
time so that the sum of the two rolls is five
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
EXERCISE
In a sample of 1000 U.S. adults, 180 dine out at a restaurant
more than once per week. Two U.S. adults are selected at
random without replacement. (Adapted from Rasmussen Reports)
a) Find the probability that both adults dine out more
than once per week.
b) Find the probability that neither adult dines out
more than once per week.
c) Find the probability that at least one of the two
adults dines out more than once per week.
d) Which of the events can be considered unusual?
Explain.
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND
THE MULTIPLICATION RULE
EXERCISE
The probability that a person in the United States has type
B+ blood is 9%. Five unrelated people in the United States
are selected at random. (Source: American Association of Blood Banks)
a) Find the probability that all five have type B+ blood.
b) Find the probability that none of the five have type
B+ blood.
c) Find the probability that at least one of the five has
type B+ blood.
d) Which of the events can be considered unusual?
Explain.
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if they

cannot occur at the same time.
A and B

A
B A B

A and B are mutually A and B are not

exclusive. mutually exclusive.
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die.
Event B: Roll a 4 on a die.
A B
1
4
2

These events cannot happen at the same time, so

the events are mutually exclusive.
 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Decide if the two events are mutually exclusive.

Event A: Select a Jack from a deck of cards.
Event B: Select a heart from a deck of cards.

A J 9 2 B
3 10
J J A 7
K 4
J 5
6Q8

Because the card can be a Jack and a heart at the

same time, the events are not mutually exclusive.
 THE ADDITION RULE

The probability that event A or B will occur is given by

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B ).
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the rule
can be simplified to P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B).
Example:
You roll a die. Find the probability that you roll a number
less than 3 or a 4.
The events are mutually exclusive.
P (roll a number less than 3 or roll a 4)
= P (number is less than 3) + P (4)
2 1 3
    0.5
6 6 6
 THE ADDITION RULE

A card is randomly selected from a deck of cards. Find the

probability that the card is a Jack or the card is a heart.

The events are not mutually exclusive because the

Jack of hearts can occur in both events.
P (select a Jack or select a heart)
= P (Jack) + P (heart) – P (Jack of hearts)
4 13 1
  
52 52 52
16

52  0.308
 THE ADDITION RULE

100 college students were surveyed and asked how many

hours a week they spent studying. The results are in the
table below. Find the probability that a student spends
between 5 and 10 hours or more than 10 hours studying.
Less then More
5 to 10 Total
5 than 10
Male 11 22 16 49
Female 13 24 14 51
Total 24 46 30 100

The events are mutually exclusive.

P (5 to10 hours or more than 10 hours) = P (5 to10) + P (10)
46 30  76  0.76
 
100 100 100
 THE ADDITION RULE
EXERCISE
Determine whether the events are mutually exclusive.
Explain your reasoning.
1. Event A: Randomly select a female public school teacher.
Event B: Randomly select a public school teacher who is
25 years old.
2. A: Randomly select a student with a birthday in April.
B: Randomly select a student with a birthday in May.
3. A: Randomly select a person who is a Republican.
B: Randomly select a person who is a Democrat.
4. A: Randomly select a member of the Liberal Party.
B: Randomly select a male Philippine Senator.
 THE ADDITION RULE
EXERCISE
Solve the following problems completely.
1. A biology class has 32 students. Of these, 10 students are
biology majors and 14 students are male. Of the biology
majors, four are male. Find the probability that a
randomly selected student is male or a biology major.
2. A math conference has an attendance of 4950 people. Of
these, 2110 are college professors and 2575 are female.
Of the college professors, 960 are female. Find the
probability that a randomly selected attendee is female or
a college professor.
 THE ADDITION RULE
EXERCISE
3. A card is selected at random from a standard deck of 52
playing cards. Find each probability.
a) Randomly selecting a club or a 3
b) Randomly selecting a red suit or a king
c) Randomly selecting a 9 or a face card

4. You roll a die. Find each probability.

a) Rolling a 5 or a number greater than 3
b) Rolling a number less than 4 or an even number
c) Rolling a 2 or an odd number
 FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
If one event can occur in m ways and a second event can
occur in n ways, the number of ways the two events can
occur in sequence is m· n. This rule can be extended
for any number of events occurring in a sequence.
Example:
A meal consists of a main dish, a side dish, and a dessert.
How many different meals can be selected if there are 4
main dishes, 2 side dishes and 5 desserts available?
# of main # of side # of
dishes dishes desserts
4  2  5 = 40
There are 40 meals available.
 FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
Two coins are flipped. How many different outcomes are
there? List the sample space.

Start
1st Coin
Tossed
Heads Tails 2 ways to flip the coin
2nd Coin
Tossed
Heads Tails Heads Tails 2 ways to flip the coin

There are 2  2 = 4 different outcomes: {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

 FUNDAMENTAL COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
The access code to a house's security system consists of 5
digits. Each digit can be 0 through 9. How many different
codes are available if
a.) each digit can be repeated?
b.) each digit can only be used once and not repeated?
a.) Because each digit can be repeated, there are 10
choices for each of the 5 digits.
10 · 10 · 10 · 10 · 10 = 100,000 codes
b.) Because each digit cannot be repeated, there are 10
choices for the first digit, 9 choices left for the second
digit, 8 for the third, 7 for the fourth and 6 for the fifth.
10 · 9 · 8 · 7 · 6 = 30,240 codes
 PERMUTATIONS
A permutation is an ordered arrangement of objects. The
number of different permutations of n distinct objects is n!
. “n factorial”
n! = n · (n – 1)· (n – 2)· (n – 3)· …· 3· 2· 1

Example:
How many different surveys are required to cover all
possible question arrangements if there are 7 questions in
a survey?
7! = 7 · 6 · 5 · 4 · 3 · 2 · 1 = 5040 surveys
 PERMUTATIONS OF n OBJECTS
TAKEN r AT A TIME
The number of permutations of n elements taken r
at a time is n! .
P 
n r (n  r)!
# in the
group # taken from
the group

Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In how
many different orders can you do so?
Pr  8 P5  8!  8! = 8  7  6  5  4  3  2  1  6720 ways
n
(8  5)! 3! 3  2 1
 DISTINGUISHABLE PERMUTATIONS
The number of distinguishable permutations of n objects,
where n1 are one type, n2 are another type, and so on is
n! , where n1  n2  n3   nk  n.
n1 !  n2 !  n3 ! nk !
Example:
Jessie wants to plant 10 plants along the sidewalk in her
front yard. She has 3 rose bushes, 4 daffodils, and 3 lilies.
In how many distinguishable ways can the plants be
arranged?
10! 10  9  8  7  6  5  4!

3!4!3! 3!4!3!
 4,200 different ways to arrange the plants
 COMBINATIONS OF n OBJECTS
TAKEN r AT A TIME
A combination is a selection of r objects from a group of n
things when order does not matter. The number of
combinations of r objects selected from a group of n objects
is n!
C  .
# in the
n r (n  r)! r !
collection
# taken from
the collection
Example:
You are required to read 5 books from a list of 8. In how
many different ways can you do so if the order doesn’t
matter?
C = 8! = 8  7  6  5!
8 5
3!5! 3!5!
= 56 combinations
 APPLICATION OF COUNTING
PRINCIPLE
In a state lottery, you must correctly select 6 numbers (in
any order) out of 44 to win the grand prize.

a.) How many ways can 6 numbers be chosen from the 44

numbers?
b.) If you purchase one lottery ticket, what is the
probability of winning the top prize?
44!
C
a.) 44 6 6!38!  7,059,052 combinations


b.) There is only one winning ticket, therefore,

1
P (win)   0.00000014
7059052
 COUNTING PRINCIPLES

EXERCISE
Determine whether the situation involves permutations,
combinations, or neither. Explain your reasoning.
1. The number of ways eight cars can line up in a row for a
car wash
2. The number of ways a four-member committee can be
chosen from 10 people
3. The number of ways 2 captains can be chosen from 28
players on a lacrosse team
4. The number of four-letter passwords that can be created
when no letter can be repeated
 COUNTING PRINCIPLES

EXERCISE
Solve the problems completely.
1. You have seven different video games. How many
different ways can you arrange the games side by side on
a shelf?
2. Eight people compete in a downhill ski race. Assuming
that there are no ties, in how many different orders can
the skiers finish?
3. In how many ways can the letters A, B, C, D, E, and F be
arranged for a six-letter security code?
4. The starting lineup for a softball team consists of 10
players. How many different batting orders are possible
using the starting lineup?
 COUNTING PRINCIPLES

EXERCISE
Solve the problems completely.
5. A horse race has 12 entries. Assuming that there are no
ties, what is the probability that the three horses owned
by one person finish first, second, and third?
6. A pizza shop offers nine toppings. No topping is used
more than once. What is the probability that the toppings
on a three-topping pizza are pepperoni, onions, and
mushrooms?
7. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5
novels, 3 books of poems, and a dictionary, what is the
probability that: a. the dictionary is selected
b. 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected
 COUNTING PRINCIPLES

EXERCISE
Solve the problems completely.
8. You look over the songs on a jukebox and determine that
you like 15 of the 56 songs.
a) What is the probability that you like the next three
songs that are played? (Assume a song cannot be
repeated.)
b) What is the probability that you do not like the
next three songs that are played? (Assume a
song cannot be repeated.)
 COUNTING PRINCIPLES

EXERCISE
Solve the problems completely.
9. The offices of president, vice president, secretary, and
treasurer for an environmental club will be filled from a
pool of 14 candidates. Six of the candidates are members
of the debate team.
a) What is the probability that all of the offices are
filled by members of the debate team?
b) What is the probability that none of the offices are
filled by members of the debate team?