FLOOD PREDICTION, FLOOD CAUSES, and FLOOD TYPES

FLOOD

• Floods may only last few hours and can cause considerable damage and a possible threat to life.

• “From a strict hydrological sense, flood is defined as a rise, usually brief, in the water level in a
stream to a peak from which the water level recedes at a slower rate (UNESCO-WMO 1974). “

Difference Between FORECAST and PREDICTION

• Forecast is scientific and free from intuition and personal bias, whereas prediction is subjective
and fatalistic in nature.

• Predicting is saying or telling something before the event while forecasting is done based on
analysis of the past.

FLOOD PREDICTION

• Flood prediction requires quantitative knowledge about infiltration and runoff dynamics, which
is generally gained at the local scale.

How are floods predicted?

According to Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

1. Monitoring

This requires the collection, at regular interval, of the real-time data on rainfall, water level and
other information that affect the hydrological condition of the river basin and the state of the river
system. This provides a broad picture of the current situation in a river basin.

2. ANALYSIS

The data are analyzed and related to other available information such as storm data from radar
and satellite observation. The general objective here is to deduce the probable development in the
hydrological situation in the river basin in the near future.

3. Preparation of the forecast and warning.

Upon receipt of the coded messages, they are decoded and each set of observations is plotted
in symbols or numbers on weather charts over the respective areas or regions.

4. Dissemination of the flood forecast and warning.

Dissemination is made through disseminating agencies such as the OCD, DSWD, NDCC, and thru
the mass media, particularly radio and television.

OCD – OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE (PHILIPPINES)

DSWD- DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL WELFARE AND DEVELOPMENT
NDCC – NATIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT COUNCIL
FLOOD CAUSES

Natural

1. Meteorological Events

• - an intense and prolonged rainfall spells

• - unusually high coastal and estuarine waters due to storm surges, seiches, etc.

2. Seismic Activities

• - tsunamis (seismic sea waves)

• - sinking of land due to earthquakes reduces the elevation of land areas

3. Atronomically-Influenced Phenomena

• - high tides coinciding with the occurrence of heavy rainfall

Artificial

1. Blasting

- causes landslides in the slopes of hills and mountains which may result in the unintentional
damming of rivers and streams.

2. Construction of temporary dams

• - produces an impediment to the flow of a river or stream which then results in an overflow

3. Failure of hydraulic and other control structures

• - accidents like the breaking of a dike result in the entry of an enormous quantity of water in a
protected area

Natural

1. Mismanagement of hydraulic structures

- may necessitate an untimely and sudden release of large amounts of excess water

2. Denudation of forest and watershed areas

• - alter the ecological system in a river basin will have an impact on the hydrology of the
catchment
FLOOD TYPES

1. Fluvial/ river FLOOD

2. Coastal Flood
3. Flash Flood
4. Storm Surge
5. Pluvial (Surface Flood)

Fluvial/ river FLOOD

• A river flood occurs when water levels rise over the top of river banks due to excessive
rain from tropical systems making landfall, persistent thunderstorms over the same area for
extended periods of time, combined rainfall and snowmelt, or an ice jam.

Coastal Flood

• A coastal flood, or the inundation of land areas along the coast, is caused by higher than
average high tide and worsened by heavy rainfall and onshore winds (i.e., wind blowing
landward from the ocean).

Flash Flood

• Flash floods develop in hilly and mountainous terrains where the slope of the river is rather steep.
The rapid development of the flood is due to the extremely short concentration time of the drainage
catchment.

Storm Surge

• Storm surge is an abnormal rise in water level in coastal areas, over and above the regular
astronomical tide, caused by forces generated from a severe storm's wind, waves, and low
atmospheric pressure. Storm surge is extremely dangerous, because it is capable of flooding
large coastal areas.

Pluvial (Surface Flood)

• Intense rain saturates an urban drainage system. The system becomes overwhelmed
and water flows out into streets and nearby structures.