LOGISTICS IN THE WORLD

FROM THE CSCMP

Council of Supply Chain Management Professional
Colombian RT.
When we look into the future, we see disruption, we see collisions, we see transformation, but
most of all we see opportunities. What do you see when you look to the future?
30th Edition
Index
Macroeconomic factors affecting
logistics Industry in 2018

Future Logistics industry

Technology 5G
 Macroeconomic factors affecting logistics.
• El comercio mundial creció 11% por 2do año Desaceleración en la economía USA
consecutivo. Cúspide cambio tecnológico - colaborativo
• Se redujo a la mitad su pronostico de
crecimiento para el 2019.
China-Usa ; Brexit . OMC
• Desaceleración sustancial Importaciones y
exportaciones

2021

El costo de la logística comercial en USA (USBLC)

se incremento 11,4%

2018

Se espera que 2020 sea más fuerte

Si se garantiza un clima comercial más estable
.OMC. 2018
 2.5 Trillones. (Q4 inventario - 2018)
• USA-China Trade tensions. Tariff Impact.
• Preparation for IOM 2020 sulfur regulation.
• Freight forwarders: Panalpina, DSV, DHL. Profitable growth in Ocean and Air.
volumes-net revenue grew 13% and operating profit rose 14%.

- Truck Driver shortage (ATA’s 2017 Analysis)

- Wage growth (trucking and warehousing)
- Rising labor cost. 3,4%
- Difficulties finding and retaining qualified workers.

3,6%
 E-Commerce
Burgeoning e-commerce volumes, particularly in cross-border, retail, drove
Crecimiento 14,8%
growth in the value-added warehousing and distribution operations en el 2018
they offer.

On-time delivery
The supply could not keep up with
the growing demand ?

 Increasing captive fleets

 Long-terms agreement
 Forward-deploying to werehouses
 Shipper of choice programs
 Technology e Innovation
 Capacity plan
 Last mile
 2019 and beyond: and opportunity to break the cycle
Strategies that shippers and carriers ar adopting

• “shipper of choice programs”

• “ position-sensing technologies “
• AI and machine learning algorithms
• Advancing “collaborative optimization
techniques” in logistic sourcing and “network
design”
• “Collaborative contracts between shippers and
carriers” . M&A activity picked up after couple
of slow years.
• “Shared economy concepts and applications
Last-mile and urban wearehouse”
• Focus on customer needs
Logistic Industry : Motor carrier
carriers
Tight capacity, high rates.

 Regulation of trucker (In 2017, there were 4,237 fatal large truck crashes)
 Driver wages,quilified, turnover and shortage drivers.
 Crecimiento e-commerce (pre- Inventarios)
 Desbalance oferta y demanda ( Incremento precios).

• 2018 Good revenue/truck for carriers

• 2019 Capacity plan in Stand by

Colapso 81% de pedidos “Class 8 Truck” Julio/19 . Crisis fabricantes

de camiones.
Truck Driver Safety

Trucking Fleet
Operations Being
Transformed by IoT
  Automation
Growing customer expectations.  Machine learning
Shorter delivery times  Artificial Intelligence
 Network optimization.

 Delivery density  Volume profiles

 Variability  Click to door requirements

The number of packages delivered annually in the U.S. is expected to rise from 11 billion
in 2018 to 16 billion by 2020. Strategy&, PwC’s strategy consulting business
Logistic Industry : Railroad

2016 - 2018 . Profitable year over year - Increased at 13%

Railroads benefited from tight trucking market.
Cost reductions / strong prices environment

Class 1 Railroad “Precision scheduled railroading PRS“

CSX /-Northfolk Southern /-Union Pacific

• Mejorar el servicio al cliente.

• Estricto control de costos
• La productividad mejorada de los activos
• seguridad es una prioridad.
• Valore, desarrolle y capacite a los empleados
 Feb 2019 - The introduction of a 5G digital indoor
system in Shanghai’s Hongqiao railway station. 100%
fully active Dic 2019.
-Global System (GSM-R) , Narrow-band technology used
only for sending messages and replies, and the
European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS)

5G, consumidores - industria BNSF Railway flew unmanned drones

IA e IoT Texas - Oklahoma

Improving efficiency
and safety

• Autonomous transportation trains. • Accident rate fell 32 percent.

• Emissions (-) 90%, and nitrogen
oxide emissions (-)80 %
• Electrical Trains
freight railroads have continued to
• Predicting and detecting
spend an average of $25 billion per
equipment failure.
year improving the safety and
• keeps railroad employees out
performance of the network
of harm’s way.
Logistic Industry : Air Freight
Air freight:
• There was a positive outlook for profitability in 2018, which
was supported by “robust demand” said IATA.
Freight capacity rose 5.4%.
• In spite of the weakness of the short term, rates were
dropped at the beginning of the year.

• The international Air transportat Asociation (IATA) has since down graded the
forecast of global air frieght growth in 2019 from 3.7% to 0%
• Depite risks of slowing global economic growth and concerns over trade wars.
E-commerce and fast deliveries cause a positive long-term outlook.
Specialized cargo & e-commerce shipments will drive the growth.
• Strides in digitalization
Globally, nearly 5 % of emissions come from flying
The International Civil Aviation Organization Amazon
Autonomous Fully electric and autonomous,
Air Cargo the drone can fly up to 15 miles
Electric aircraft technology Technology Fuel Prices (+)15% -20% Boeing 2018. and deliver packages weighing
75% - 100% Regulation Expenses (+) 9,2% Pruebas piloto under 2.2 kilograms to customers
in less than 30 minutes.

Freight volume
(+)3,5% 0%

By 2022, 9-seat
planes could be doing
• E-commerce 22%
short-haul flight
Robótica • Carga especializada
(500-1,000km). Automatization, Pharmaceuticals
AR Perishables
Before 2030, small-to- Drones BD, AI
medium 150-seat
planes could be flying up
to 500 km.

Short-range (100-250 km)

VTOL aircraft could also
become viable in the 60% of Atlas Air´s investment will allow future capacity growth for
2020s. e-commerce and express shipments.
Logistic Industry : Third Part Logistic 3PL – solving challenges
Demand for 3PL is expected to grow Speed and Innovation XPO: 5000 robots.
DHL Augmented reality program.
5,2% El Grupo MXD. visibility technology
AFN logistics. IIoT predictive analytics, ML
2022 Casestack. Technology-enabled truck
2018
brockerage focused on LTL.

Transporte Interno
Transporte y Almacenamiento
de valor agregado

Adding value through services

Dynamic inventory management
Last-mile delivery challenge

Wearehouse footprint of top 3PL

• Agile Culture
• Technology: Digitalization, AI, IIoT, AR,
Velocidad e
Robotics,Blockchain,Automated centers.
innovación
• Talent and specialized insight 14% expansion
Logistic Industry : Water and Port
“ Although Refiners and Ocean Shippers have had more than a
decade to prepare for clean fuel regulations, fuel market
Wáter and ports: disruptions are anticipated when they come into force on
January 1, 2020”.
- El Q3 de 2018 se incrementaron los envíos por este medio a causa del incrementó de tarifas en
enero de 2019. Se afectaron los envíos regulares en el Q1 de 2019.
- Ganancias de dos dígitos para los transportistas.
- La incertidumbre en torno a las regulaciones de azufre de la OMI 2020 que se implementarán el 1
de enero de 2020 nubla la imagen a más largo plazo
- these regulations require ships to either install scrubbers or switch to low-sulfur diesel fuel to
reduce emissions
Logistic Industry Warehouse/ Distribution

• Los alquileres promedio en los EE. UU. alcanzaron máximo

nominal de $ 6,4 por pie cuadrado (psf).
• Apesar de los aumentos en la oferta, la demanda voraz y las
opciones limitadas de espacio causaron tasas record de
desocupación e impulsaron el crecimiento de los alquileres.
• El comercio electrónico está creando demanda de depósitos
urbanos más pequeños, ya que se busca mantener los
inventarios cerca de los clientes para una entrega rápida.
• La creciente demanda de entregas rápidas, combinadas con
espacio reducido y altos costos laborales, está impulsando
inversiones en nuevas tecnologías.

The network also enables ‘slicing’, Petty notes,
whereby the network can be split or sliced into
smaller networks for tailored speed, capacity,
coverage, encryption and security. This can be
achieved much more easily with 5G and enables
sharing of data and information “in very private
ways, with much, much stronger security than in
the 4G environment,”
5G puede soportar alrededor de un millón de dispositivos
por kilómetro cuadrado en comparación con solo alrededor
de 4,000 para 4G y también es diez veces más rápido.
Ericsson estima que habrá alrededor de 29
mil millones de dispositivos conectados
para 2022, de los cuales alrededor de 18
mil millones estarán relacionados con IoT.
In the long term, it is support for solutions such as robotic
picking and packing and AI-based planning will fundamentally
change how business done.
Technology trends

AI and ML

IIoT and 5G

AR and VR

Robotics

Blockchain

Renowable
Energy