Market Share Assumptions

Current Market Size 300,000

Market Phase 1 Growth Rate 50%
Market Phase 2 Growth Rate 10% Period 0
Beginning Market Share 50% Market Size
Annual Market Share Loss 2% Market Share
Price
Price and Cost Assumption Revenue
Price Per Case 3.5
Phase II Price 3.5
Phase II Inflation 2%
Price St.Dev. 0.1 Variable Cost
Variable Cost Per Case 1.85 Fixed Cost
Fixed Cost 400,000 Total Cost
Initial Outlay 3,500,000
Res.Value of Initial Investment 10% EBTD
0.065
Other Assumptions Depreciation
Discount Rate 15% Taxes
Tax Rate 35% Residual Value

Output Final Cash Flow

PV of Cash Flows 3,719,199 Discounted Cash Flow
NPV 219,199
 Phase 1 Phase 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
450,000 675,000 1,012,500 1,113,750 1,225,125 1,347,638 1,482,401 1,630,641 1,793,706
50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34%
3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.57 3.64 3.71 3.79 3.86
787,500 1,134,000 1,630,125 1,715,175 1,836,952 1,962,915 2,092,271 2,223,974 2,356,671

416,250 599,400 861,638 906,593 951,922 997,252 1,042,128 1,086,007 1,128,241

400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
816,250 999,400 1,261,638 1,306,593 1,351,922 1,397,252 1,442,128 1,486,007 1,528,241

-28,750 134,600 368,488 408,583 485,030 565,663 650,143 737,967 828,430

350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000

-132,563 -75,390 6,471 20,504 47,261 75,482 105,050 135,788 167,451

453,813 559,990 712,017 738,079 787,770 840,181 895,093 952,178 1,010,980

394,620 423,433 468,163 421,999 391,661 363,233 336,499 311,269 287,384
 10
1,973,076
32%
3.94
2,488,645

1,168,061
400,000
1,568,061

920,584

350,000
199,704
227,500

1,298,379
320,940
Market Share Assumptions
Current Market Size 300,000
Market Phase 1 Growth Rate 48.33%
Market Phase 2 Growth Rate 10.00% Period 0
Beginning Market Share 50% Market Size
Annual Market Share Loss 2% Market Share
Price
Price and Cost Assumption Revenue
Price Per Case 3.5
Phase II Price 3.5
Phase II Inflation 2%
Price St.Dev. 0.1 Variable Cost
Variable Cost Per Case 1.85 Fixed Cost
Fixed Cost 400,000 Total Cost
Initial Outlay 3,500,000
Res.Value of Initial Investment 10% EBTD
0.065
Other Assumptions Depreciation
Discount Rate 15% Taxes
Tax Rate 35% Residual Value

Output Final Cash Flow

PV of Cash Flows 3,641,048 Discounted Cash Flow
NPV 141,048
 Phase 1 Phase 2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
445,000 660,083 979,124 1,077,036 1,184,740 1,303,214 1,433,535 1,576,888 1,734,577
50% 48% 46% 44% 42% 40% 38% 36% 34%
3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.57 3.64 3.71 3.79 3.86
778,750 1,108,940 1,576,389 1,658,635 1,776,399 1,898,209 2,023,301 2,150,662 2,278,985

411,625 586,154 833,234 876,707 920,543 964,378 1,007,775 1,050,208 1,091,049

400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
811,625 986,154 1,233,234 1,276,707 1,320,543 1,364,378 1,407,775 1,450,208 1,491,049

-32,875 122,786 343,155 381,928 455,856 533,831 615,526 700,454 787,936

350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000 350,000

-134,006 -79,525 -2,396 11,175 37,050 64,341 92,934 122,659 153,278

451,131 552,311 695,551 720,753 768,806 819,490 872,592 927,795 984,658

392,288 417,626 457,336 412,093 382,233 354,288 328,040 303,298 279,901
 10
1,908,035
32%
3.94
2,406,608

1,129,557
400,000
1,529,557

877,051

350,000
184,468
227,500

1,270,083
313,945
3.50 1.00 10
2.00 20
3.50 35
4.00 40
5.00 50
1.00 10
2.00 20
2.00 20
2.00 20
3.00 30
4.00 40
6.00 60
5.00 50
3.50 35
3.50 35
3.50 35
3.50 35
3.50 35
 Price Quantity
1 1 100
2 1.5 90 Price Quantity
3 2 80 Price 1
4 2.5 70 Quantity -1 1
5 3 60
6 3.5 50
7 4 40
8 4.5 30
9 5 20
3.00 60.00
1.29 25.82
 Correlation Price - Quantity Price in $L$3 Quantity in $L$4
Price in $L$3 1

Price 3.00 Quantity in $L$4 0.3 1

Quantity 60.00
Month Real Price
1/1/2007 3.96
2/1/2007 3.80
3/1/2007 3.20
4/1/2007 3.50
5/1/2007 5.49
6/1/2007 1.20 Less Spread 0
7/1/2007 2.59 Standard Normal 0
8/1/2007 0.53 More Spread 0
9/1/2007 0.05
### 1.23
### 6.57
### 3.11
1/1/2008 3.60
2/1/2008 4.37
3/1/2008 0.25
4/1/2008 1.45
5/1/2008 0.09
6/1/2008 5.86
7/1/2008 3.20
8/1/2008 6.06