ANALISIS DE RIESGO

Periodo de Diseño T= 10
Formulas Componentes
Fp1 Sistema de Agua 12,500.00
01.01 Captacion 4,000.00
01.02 Conduccion 2,000.00
01.03 Tratamiento 1,500.00
01.04 Distribucion 5,000.00
Fp2 Sistema de Alcantarillado 17,000.00
02.01 Colectores 4,000.00
02.02 Emisores 5,000.00
02.03 Estructuras de control y limpieza 8,000.00
Fp3 Sistema de Tratamiento 14,000.00
03.01 Estructuras de solidos y efluentes 6,000.00
03.02 Estructuras de eliminacion de efluentes 8,000.00
Fp4 Impacto ambiental 13,000.00
04.01 Medidas estructurales 2,000.00
04.02 Medidas no estructurales 5,000.00
04.03 Monitoreo 6,000.00

Costo Directo 56,500.00

Gastos Generales 10.00% 5,650.00
Utilidades 10.00% 565.00
Sub Presupuesto 62,715.00
Igv 19.00% 11,915.85
Presuspuesto Total 74,630.85

T= 10

Y 74,630.85
X 697,910,824.00

88,000.00
COSTO S/.

86,000.00
84,000.00
82,000.00
80,000.00
78,000.00
76,000.00
74,000.00
72,000.00
70,000.00
68,000.00
00 .0
0
2 4. 1
,8 78
10 7 7,
,9 ,4
 78,000.00
76,000.00
74,000.00
72,000.00
70,000.00
68,000.00
00 .0
0
2 4. 1
8 78
0, 7,
,91 ,4
7
7 4
69 17
R

(Y-B)2=2P(X-A)
P -4
V(A,B) 2 2

Y X
-5 -96
6
-4 -70
-3 -48 4
-2 -30
-1 -16 2
0 -6
1 0 0
2 2 -96 -70 -48 -30 -1
3 0 -2
4 -6
5 -16 -4

-6

Período Flujo de Fondos TIR

0 -100 VAN
1 20
2 20
3 20
4 20
5 20
6 20
7 20
8 20
9 20
10 20
11 20
12 20
13 20
14 20
15 20
16 20
17 20
18 20
19 20
20 20
 15 20 50 100 1000 5000

13,000.00 13,500.00 14,000.00 14,500.00 15,000.00 15,500.00

17,500.00 18,000.00 18,500.00 19,000.00 19,500.00 20,000.00

14,500.00 15,000.00 15,500.00 16,000.00 16,500.00 17,000.00

13,500.00 14,000.00 14,500.00 15,000.00 15,500.00 16,000.00

58,500.00 60,500.00 62,500.00 64,500.00 66,500.00 68,500.00

5,850.00 6,050.00 6,250.00 6,450.00 6,650.00 6,850.00
585.00 605.00 625.00 645.00 665.00 685.00
64,935.00 67,155.00 69,375.00 71,595.00 73,815.00 76,035.00
12,337.65 12,759.45 13,181.25 13,603.05 14,024.85 14,446.65
77,272.65 79,914.45 82,556.25 85,198.05 87,839.85 90,481.65

15 20 50 100 1000 5000

77,272.65 79,914.45 82,556.25 85,198.05 87,839.85 90,481.65

174,477,781.00 100.00 ### ### ### ###

0 0 0 0
1 .0 0 .0 1 .0 4 .0
78 10 78 82
7 7, 7 7, 1 0,
,4 ,4 ,9
 0 0 0 0
1 .0 0 .0 1 .0 4 .0
78 10 78 82
7 7, 7 7, 1 0,
4 ,4 4 ,4 7 ,9
17 17 69
RENTABILIDAD

Y
-70 -48 -30 -16 -6 0 2 0 -6 -16

19.43%
$ 70.27
 DESCRIPCION FLUJO
Periodo de Diseño 0 1 2 3 4 5
A).- CARACTERISTICAS DE INVERSION
1.- ESTUDIOS
-Expediente Tecnico 73,223.11
2.- INFRAESTRUCTURA
-Captacion,Desarenador,Filtro Lento,Reservorio 349,138.53
-Linea de Conduccion,Linea de Aduccion, Pase aereo 631,104.16
-Red de Distribucion,Conexiones Domiciliarias 418,553.22
-Flete Terrestre 65,666.34
COSTO DIRECTO 1,464,462.25
Gastos Generales (9.48 %) 138,788.51
Utilidad (10.00 %) 146,446.23
SUB TOTAL 1,749,696.98
IGV (19 %) 332,442.43
TOTAL PRESUPUESTO 2,082,139.41

B).- INVERSION
-Inversion -2,155,362.52
C).- COSTOS
-Operación y Mantenimiento 0 3,123.21 3,747.85 3,956.06 4,164.28 4,372.49
D).- BENEFICIOS
-Operación y Mantenimiento 0 624,641.82 624,641.82 624,641.82 624,641.82 624,641.82
E).- TOTAL
D-C -2,155,362.52 621,518.61 620,893.97 620,685.76 620,477.54 620,269.33

COK 14%

VAN 1,652,342
TIR 28%
 PRESUPUESTOS SEGÚN PERIODO DE DISEÑO PORCENTAJE VAN RENTABILIDAD RIESGO VARIACION
T
4 2,065,362.52 4.18% 1,742,342.27 80.84% 952,145.01 46.10%
5 2,095,362.52 2.78% 1,712,342.27 79.45% 922,145.01 44.01%
10 2,125,362.52 1.39% 1,682,342.27 78.05% 892,145.01 41.98%
15 2,155,362.52 0.00% 1,652,342.27 100.00% 862,145.01 40.00%
20 2,175,362.52 -0.93% 1,632,342.27 75.73% 832,145.01 38.25%
25 2,195,362.52 -1.86% 1,612,342.27 74.81% 852,145.01 38.82%
30 2,215,362.52 -2.78% 1,592,342.27 73.88% 853,145.01 38.51%
35 2,235,362.52 -3.71% 1,572,342.27 72.95% 854,145.01 38.21%
40 2,255,362.52 -4.64% 1,552,342.27 72.02% 855,145.01 37.92%
45 2,355,362.52 -9.28% 1,452,342.27 67.38% 856,145.01 36.35%
50 2,455,362.52 -13.92% 1,352,342.27 62.74% 857,145.01 34.91%

RENTABILIDAD RIESGO
2,500,000.00 2,500,000.00
Axis Title

2,400,000.00 2,400,000.00
2,300,000.00 2,300,000.00
2,200,000.00
2,200,000.00
2,100,000.00 RENTABILIDAD
2,100,000.00
2,000,000.00
2,000,000.00
1,900,000.00
1,900,000.00
1,800,000.00
60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00%100.00%110.00%
Axis Title 1,800,000.00
34.00% 36.00% 38.00% 40.00% 42.00% 44.00% 46.00% 48.00%
FLUJO ECONOMICO
6

4,580.71

624,641.82

620,061.12
 RIESGO
2,500,000.00

2,400,000.00

2,300,000.00

2,200,000.00

2,100,000.00

2,000,000.00

1,900,000.00

1,800,000.00
34.00% 36.00% 38.00% 40.00% 42.00% 44.00% 46.00% 48.00%