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and trends
Q1 2019
Contents
Global summary
Americas
Europe
Asia-Pacific
Africa and the Middle East
Appendix
Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Global summary
60
100
80
60
40
40
20 20
Renewables 0 0
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Largest segment
US$12.7b
Generation Integrated utility Energy services Renewables
Gas utility Water and wastewater Volume
127
0 0
Total deals Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
Note: All transaction information is EY analysis with data sourced from Mergermarket and S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Page 3
Global summary
In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to
US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments. Across all regions, a
few trends emerged:
Renewables drive deal value and volume Interest in offshore wind is on the rise
Q1 2019 saw 56% — 71 of 127 — deals involve renewables, which contributed a total Development of offshore wind capacity has accelerated with Australia, Japan,
value of US$12.7b (61% of total deal value). Europe led the activity with US$5.4b, China, Korea, India and the Netherlands all recently announcing new projects. In the
or 42.5%, of total renewables deal value. Financial sponsors and strategics are second largest deal of the quarter, German asset manager Commerz Real joined
firmly committed to renewable energy investments driven by market potential, consortium members to buy an 80% stake in 402 MW German offshore wind farm
customer preference and corporate sustainability goals, resulting in a significant Veja Mate for US$2.6b. The US offshore wind market is at the cusp of a tipping
pool of investment capital. point as interest in offshore leases continues to grow.
Corporates and utilities drive development of renewables Governments continue to push for more clean energy
France’s ENGIE announced it would add another 9 GW of renewable capacity by Governments around the world continue to promote clean energy policy. In Europe,
2021, while Italian energy giant Enel announced plans to spend 80% of its US$30b Greece and France announced new energy plans promoting renewables growth,
capital expenditure through 2021 on renewables and grid operations. In the US, while in the US, local government continues to drive renewables progress. New
over 200 companies, including Facebook and Alphabet’s subsidiary, Google Mexico recently joined California, Hawaii, Washington, DC and Puerto Rico to set a
launched the Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance with the goal to bring 60 GW of 100% carbon-free goal. In Asia-Pacific, India has set a target of 100 GW of solar
new renewables online in the US by 2025. power by 2022.
Investment challenges for the fossil fuel industry Increasing convergence as oil and gas (O&G) majors enter the sector
The Norwegian Government proposed the phaseout of oil and gas exploration and Investment by O&G companies into the P&U sector is rising across all regions,
production companies from its US$1t sovereign wealth fund. The German increasing sector competition. Shell’s New Energies division made two strategic
Government announced plans to shut all of its 84 coal-powered plants by 2038 and acquisitions as they continue to take steps towards their target of becoming the
replace them with renewable energy plants. In the US, a federal judge dismissed a world’s largest electricity company by 2035. Our CCB report revealed that O&G is
lawsuit that sought to force an Arizona water agency to buy electricity from a local the sector that executives expect to see the most convergence or blurring of sector
2.3 GW Navajo coal plant. The plant may be forced to close by the end of the year. boundaries — this trend will continue to influence M&A dynamics in 2019.
Page 4
Global summary
Q1 2019 at a glance
US$3.7b deal value in renewables US$5.4b deal value in renewables US$3.6b deal value in renewables Renewables investment continues,
assets. assets. assets. with increasing focus on off-grid
solutions.
Partnerships between financial French and Greek Governments Hong Kong-based privatization deal Investments in smart technologies
sponsors and strategics are on the announced plans to increase dominated activity. boosted by government support.
rise. renewables investments.
Page 5
Global summary
Capital outlook
Americas Europe Asia-Pacific Africa and the Middle East
Utilities and corporates will continue Utilities’ decarbonization plans will Policy support will keep Bangladesh an Foreign and government investment in
to push investment in renewables. drive investment in renewables. investment hotspot for renewables. renewable energy development will
continue.
Investment in battery storage will Signs that the EU could miss its 2030 Investments in EVs will accelerate, Investment in off-grid solutions will
ramp up as utilities plan big-ticket renewables and energy savings goals supported by policy support across increase, bridging the gap between
projects. may increase the need for renewables India and New Zealand. power demand and supply.
investment.
Activity in Latin America will increase, Electric vehicle (EV) investment will be Reforms in Thailand’s behind-the- Energy reforms will continue amid a
driven by investment in infrastructure boosted by tighter CO2 emission caps meter segment will boost investment challenged economic environment.
and asset sales led by US and and planned investments by utilities. in distributed solar.
European utilities.
Page 6
Global summary
US$0.5b in Luxembourg.
Luxembourg 0.5 1.1 1.6 • The US continued to attract
the most investment, with
investments domestically
UK 0.8 0.3 1.1
and inbound from Canada
and the UK.
Rest of the world 0.1 0.9 1.2 3.2 5.4
Page 7
Global summary
Global returns
Utilities gain value in tandem with global market growth Quarter-to-date TSR
• Q1 saw global markets rally after their decline in value in Q4 2018. The S&P Global TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
1200 gained 13.7% this quarter compared to a decline of 13.1% in the prior quarter.
• The EY Global Utilities Index1 underperformed the market, returning 10.9%. The risk
S&P Global 1200 13.7
of rising interest rates may have impacted the performance of the sector relative to
total global returns. EY Global Utilities Index 10.9
120%
115%
110%
105%
100%
95%
90%
85%
80%
01/01/2019 08/01/2019 15/01/2019 22/01/2019 29/01/2019 05/02/2019 12/02/2019 19/02/2019 26/02/2019 05/03/2019 12/03/2019 19/03/2019 26/03/2019
S&P Global 1200 TSR (%) EY Global Utilites Index TSR (%)
1The EY Global Utilities Index benchmarks the returns of 229 utilities globally using data sourced from S&P Capital IQ and other publicly available information. For a comprehensive list of utilities contained within the analysis, please refer to the appendix.
Page 8
Global summary
Regional TSR
90% Valuations
85% Americas Europe Asia-Pacific
01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
The QTD TSR of the EY The QTD TSR of the EY Europe The EY Asia-Pacific Utilities
Americas Utilities Index2 was Utilities Index was 8.4%, which is Index performed slightly lower
14.5%, which is lower than the significantly lower than the QTD than the Nikkei 225, the Asia-
regional market (as TSR for the European Pacific regional benchmark
S&P 500 TR (total return) % EY Americas Utilites Index TSR (%) benchmarked by the S&P 500 benchmark index STOXX Europe index. Asia-Pacific utilities
STOXX Europe600
Stoxx Europe 600TR
TR(total
(totalreturn)
return)%% EY Europe Utilites Index TSR (%) index), which returned a 600, which returned 12.4% for returned 8.2% QTD compared
quarterly TSR of 14.8%. the quarter. with the market at 9.6%. The
Nikkei 225 TR (total return) % EY Asia-Pacific Utilites Index TSR (%) However, the EY Americas QTD return of the EY Asia-
Utilities Index outperformed Pacific Utilities Index was
Europe and Asia-Pacific (QTD the lowest of all regional EY
TSR of 8.4% and 8.2%, utilities indices.
2EYanalysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ and other publicly available data. The EY Americas Utilities Index benchmarks the returns of 101 utilities respectively).
headquartered in the Americas, the EY Europe Utilities Index benchmarks the returns of 54 utilities headquartered in Europe, the EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index
benchmarks the returns of 73 utilities headquartered in Asia-Pacific. For a comprehensive list of utilities contained within the analysis, please refer to the appendix.
Page 9
Global summary
Q1
QTD TSR
TSR in % (from 1 January 2019 to 31 March 2019)
EV/FY2 EBITDA
(At 31 March 2019)
Americas
10.5x • Generation’s TSR was the highest performing in the region, and this segment
Large market capitalization integrated 11.7%
outperformed the broader market, a continued trend from Q4 2018. The water
Medium and small market capitalization integrated 15.0% 9.6x and wastewater segment TSR was the lowest of all segments in Q1 across the
Americas.
Gas utility 14.0% 11.1x
• The large market capitalization integrated segment and the medium and small
Generation 25.7% 8.3x market capitalization segment TSR performed better than in other regions.
• The Americas utilities EV/FY2 EBITDA sector traded at 10.7x, the highest of all
Renewables 17.7% 11.7x
the regions, with water and wastewater assets valued at the highest multiple of
Water and wastewater 9.0% 13.6x 13.6x for Q1.
EY Americas Utilities Index 14.5% 10.7x
Large market capitalization integrated 9.3% 7.5x
Europe
Medium and small market capitalization integrated 4.0% 5.0x • The renewables segment QTD TSR was the highest performing of the region
(15.6% TSR QTD), while the generation segment TSR performed the worst
Gas utility 12.1% 9.8x (2.4% TSR QTD). This is a reversal from Q4 2018 performance.
Generation 2.4% 5.7x • The water and wastewater segment TSR performed worse than in other
regions but remains valued above the EY Europe Utilities Index average at 8.5x
Renewables 15.6% 9.1x EV/FY2 EBITDA compared to 7.3x EV/FY2 EBITDA.
Water and wastewater 8.4% 8.5x • The European utilities sector was valued at the lowest EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple
during Q1 across all regions. The renewables and gas utility segments traded
EY Europe Utilities Index 8.4% 7.3x at the highest valuation across Europe.
Large market capitalization integrated
Medium and small market capitalization integrated
2.2% 8.3x
Asia-Pacific
6.3% 10.4x
Gas utility 8.7% • Renewables were the highest performing QTD TSR segment in the region, after
14.8x
the poor performance in Q4 with -7.2% returns.
Generation -0.6% 7.8x • The generation segment was the lowest performing segment across the sector
Renewables 27.6% and region with QTD TSR of -0.6% in contrast to 11.3% TSR in the prior
12.5x
quarter.
Water and wastewater 14.1% 9.9x • The Asia-Pacific utilities sector EV/FY2 EBITDA traded at 10.3x. The gas
EY Asia-Pacific Utilities Index 8.2% utility segment traded at 14.8x EV/FY2 EBITDA, highest across all the other
10.3x
regional segments.
TSR >20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% higher than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% discount compared with the regional sector average
TSR 0% to 20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA between a 0% to 20% premium compared with the regional sector average Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for
the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the
TSR performance >20% lower than the regional sector average; EV/FY2 EBITDA >20% premium compared with the regional sector average valuations analysis.
Page 10
Global summary
EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY Global P&U TAS Resident TAS Senior Manager EY Global P&U Analyst
+1 410 783 3735 +61 7 3243 3758 +1 410 234 4330 +91 124 619 2734
miles.huq@ey.com sara.richardson@au.ey.com michael.c.morse@ey.com anjushi.joshi@gds.ey.com
@MilesHuq @sararichardson2 @anjushi_joshi
Page 11
Americas
Renewable energy drives
deal volume
Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Americas
“ US$9.1b
Transaction highlights
Certain utilities are deal value, 35% decrease from Q4 2018 • Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (KKR) agreed to make a
US$900m equity investment in NextEra Energy Partners to
changing their facilitate the acquisition of a 611 MW renewables portfolio.
thinking to ensure
they are not getting
US$3.7b Shareholder activism continues
• Sempra continued its process of simplifying its business
structure by selling 724 MW of operating wind and battery
contributed by renewables asset M&A, dominated by seven assets to AEP for US$1.1b. The deal follows Sempra’s
left behind by multimillion-dollar deals US$1.5b sale of renewables assets to Consolidated Edison
last year.
focusing on Chart 5: Americas deal value and volume by segment Chinese renewables investment targets Latin America
renewable and (announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
• In the largest deal of Q1 in Latin America, Chinese-based
emerging technology 60
CGN Energy International agreed to acquire wind and solar
projects totaling 540 MW combined capacity from Enel for
Financial sponsors 40 30
investment this quarter.
30
have a large pool of 20
20 Corporate distress and restructuring drive divestitures
• Canadian utility ENMAX acquired US electricity network
capital and are eager 10
10
utility Emera Maine from Emera Inc. for US$1.3b. The deal
furthers Emera Inc.’s strategy to reduce debt and support
to engage. 0
Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
0
its US$4.9b regulated capital expenditure program. Also
this quarter, GE continued restructuring, selling its stake in
Miles Huq, several wind farms to Enel for approximately US$250m.
Generation Integrated Energy services
EY Global P&U TAS Leader Renewables Gas utility Water and wastewater
Volume
Page 13
Americas
“
Clean energy will develop into a large and stable market,
attracting investment beyond current expectations —
from both corporate and financial sponsors.
Miles Huq,
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
Page 14
Americas
“
We expect US corporate buyers to take
Brazil
the lead in domestic M&A as they
0.8 grapple with the ongoing changes in the
power and utilities sector. Facing flat
Mexico 0.8
0.7 load growth and a rapidly changing
environment, small to midsize utilities
0.7
appear ripe for consolidation.
Top investor countries/regions Miles Huq,
Canada US UK Greater China Philippines Italy
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Page 15
Americas
“
Announcement Target Target country/ Bidder Deal value Bidder rationale Segment
date bidder country (US$b)
Note: All deals are announced deals, and the values indicated are disclosed enterprise values comprised of equity and debt components.
Page 16
Americas
130%
115%
110%
105%
3 The water and wastewater segment recorded the lowest
TSR of 9.0%, compared to 1.7% TSR in Q4 2018.
100%
95%
90%
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Page 17
Americas
• The water and wastewater segment returned a • The renewables segment returned a quarterly • The generation segment returned a quarterly • The gas utility segment returned a quarterly
quarterly TSR of 9.0%, which is below the TSR of 17.7%, which is higher than the regional TSR of 25.7%, above the regional index average TSR of 14.0%, slightly below the regional index
regional index average of 14.5%. index average of 14.5%. of 14.5%. average of 14.5%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 13.6x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 11.7x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 8.3x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 11.1x,
27.0% above the average regional sector which is 9% above the average regional sector 22.0% lower than the average regional sector 4.0% above the average regional sector
multiple and greater than both Europe and Asia- multiple. The result is greater than that of multiple but greater than that of Europe and multiple. The result is greater than that of
Pacific (8.5x and 9.9x, respectively). Europe (9.1x) but less than that of Asia-Pacific Asia-Pacific, which returned results of 5.7x and Europe (9.8x) but less than that of Asia-Pacific
(12.5x). 7.8x, respectively. (14.8x).
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Page 18
Americas
“
Solar plus storage power purchase
agreements (PPAs) are becoming
Corporates seek more clean energy
• In March, over 200 companies, including Alphabet’s subsidiary Google, Facebook, General Motors and
Walmart, launched the Renewable Energy Buyers Alliance (REBA). REBA’s goal is to bring 65 GW of new
renewable energy online by 2025 and make it easier for corporate buyers to procure clean energy.
less expensive than the levelized cost
of energy (LCOE) for combined cycle
natural gas in the US, pressing Investment activity to increase in Latin America
• EDP’s Brazilian subsidiary has announced plans to invest US$801m in developing the country’s
utilities to consider adopting this transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure through 2023. Sempra plans to sell its 100% stake in
new technology. Chilean utility Chilquinta Energía and 83.6% stake in Luz del Sur in Peru to focus on the US and Mexico
markets. Aguas Nuevas and Esval, two Chilean water and wastewater utilities, have announced plans to
Miles Huq, invest US$355m to improve efficiencies and mitigate risks posed by climate change to their operations.
EY Global P&U TAS Leader
Page 19
Americas
EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY US P&U TAS Leader EY US Southwest P&U TAS Leader EY US Central P&U TAS Leader
EY US Northeast P&U TAS Leader
+1 410 783 3735 +1 713 750 8192 +1 713 750 4897 +1 312 879 3461
miles.huq@ey.com stephanie.chesnick@ey.com mitchell.fane@ey.com robert.jozwiak@ey.com
EY Latin America South P&U TAS Leader EY US Southeast P&U TAS Leader EY Latin America North P&U TAS Leader EY Canada P&U TAS Leader
+55 11 2573 3008 +1 704 335 4236 +52 55 5283 8650 +1 416 943 2373
lucio.teixeira@br.ey.com rob.leonard@ey.com rafael.aguirre@mx.ey.com william.armitage@ca.ey.com
Page 20
Europe
Activity driven by
renewables megadeals
Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Europe
US$6.8b
“
Transaction highlights
Quarter’s largest deal in offshore wind
deal value — down 27% from Q4 2018 • Motivated by corporate sustainability goals,
Veja Mate has an optimum German asset manager Commerz Real joined
risk-return ratio. A future consortium members to buy an 80% stake in
US$5.4b
402 MW German offshore wind farm Veja Mate
technology that is already for US$2.6b.
Page 22
Europe
Governments boost clean energy Oil majors focus in on power and utilities
• In January, the French Government published a draft 10-year energy plan • Netherlands-based oil and gas company Shell has announced plans to
to double its installed renewables capacity to 113 GW by 2028. In become the world’s largest electricity company by 2035 through owning or
February, Greece introduced its first long-term energy plan that outlined a purchasing 61 GW of power capacity. The company plans to invest
framework for driving US$39b of investments in clean energy by 2030. approximately US$1b to US$2b of capital per year on new energy
solutions.
• In January, the German Government announced plans to shut all of its 84
coal-powered plants by 2038 and replace them with renewable energy • Through its New Energies division, Shell announced the full acquisition of
plants. The coal phaseout is estimated to cost US$45.7b. smart energy storage company Sonnen in February, and the acquisition of
Greenlots, a major EV fast charging infrastructure provider based in the
• Even with these developments, there is debate whether Europe’s draft
US.
National Energy and Climate Plans are sufficient to deliver the EU’s 32%
renewables target for 2030. • Shell, in partnership with energy company Eneco and builder Van Oord,
participated in a highly contested tender to build a 750 MW offshore wind
“
farm off the Netherlands; the tender closed in March.
• Another oil company, Total, joined with renewables companies Ørsted and
We are not interested in the power business because we Elicio to announce plans to bid to develop a 600 MW offshore wind farm in
liked what we saw in the last 20 years. We are interested France.
because we think we like what we see in the next 20 years … Utilities bullish on renewables investments
We can make better returns than the industry has done so
far – 8-12% is the range we’ve been talking about4. • Italy’s Enel announced plans to spend 80% of its US$30b capital
expenditure through 2021 on renewables and grid operations. Q1 saw the
Maarten Wetselaar, company acquire US$256m of renewables assets across the Americas and
Director, New Energies, Shell Asia-Pacific.
4 https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1726552/oil-giant-shell-aims-to-be-worlds-biggest-power-company
Page 23
Europe
0.3
78% of deal 56% of
value was transactions
Iceland UK
0.3
concentrated in (US$3.8b) were
1.1
0.8
three countries: domestic deals
0.3 Germany, with most
Luxembourg (US$3.4b)
and the UK. conducted by
financial investors.
0.5
Luxembourg
1.6
0.5
2.6
Russia
0.5 “
While financial investors have stepped up
their game by acquiring renewables assets
1.1 (US$3.9b), we are seeing increased
Germany
2.6 greenfield investment commitments from
utilities. Big utilities, such as Iberdrola and
ENGIE, plan to invest more than US$17b in
renewables by 2022.
Top investor countries/regions
Miles Huq,
Germany UK France Switzerland Australia Japan EY Global P&U TAS Leader
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Page 24
Europe
SSE Plc
(Dunmaglass
wind farm)
(35.5% stake); Greencoat UK Expands Greencoat’s portfolio of
1 February UK/UK 0.6 Renewables
SSE Plc Wind Plc renewable energy assets
(Stronelairg wind
farm) (35.5%
stake)
Note: All deals are announced deals, and the values indicated are disclosed enterprise values comprised of equity and debt components.
Page 25
Europe
115%
95%
85%
01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis
Page 26
Europe
• The water and wastewater segment returned a • The renewables segment returned a quarterly • The generation segment returned a quarterly • The gas utility segment returned a quarterly
quarterly TSR of 8.4%, in line with the regional TSR of 15.6%, above the regional index average TSR of 2.4%, below the regional index average TSR of 12.1%, above the regional index average
index average of 8.4%. of 8.4%. of 8.4%. of 8.4%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 8.5x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.1x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 5.7x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.8x,
which is 16.5% above the regional sector which is 26% above the regional average. The less than that of Asia-Pacific and Americas 34% above the regional average but less than
multiple. It is less than valuations exhibited in valuation is less than those achieved in Asia- (7.8x and 8.3x, respectively). that of Asia-Pacific and Americas (14.8x and
Asia-Pacific and Americas (9.9x and 13.6x, Pacific and Americas (12.5x and 11.7x, 11.1x, respectively).
respectively). respectively).
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Page 27
Europe
“
Increased push for EVs
• The EU has tightened caps on carbon dioxide emissions from cars, setting a 37.5% CO2 reduction target for
2030 compared with the 2021 limit. The move aims to accelerate the development of EVs.
We plan to eliminate any range • During 2019, Scottish Power will expand the EV charging infrastructure in the UK, as part of its plan to
invest US$2.6b in clean energy in the country.
or charging anxiety by building a
• UK-based GRIDSERVE Sustainable Energy, which develops, owns and operates renewable energy projects,
UK-wide network of customer- plans to spend US$1.3b on new EV charging infrastructure in the UK over the next five years.
focused, brand-new Electric
Forecourts that will make it EU at risk to miss 2030 renewables and energy savings goals
easier and cheaper to use an • WindEurope released analysis indicating that Europe’s draft National Energy and Climate Plans are
electric vehicle than a petrol or insufficient to deliver the EU’s 32% renewables target for 2030. The group called for more definitive Plans
supporting renewables growth. These Plans must be finalized by 31 December 2019.
diesel alternative5. • The Coalition for Energy Savings indicated that stronger GDP growth (mainly in Eastern Europe) was putting
Toddington Harper, the EU’s overall nonbinding target to improve its energy efficiency by 32.5% at risk.
Chief Executive Officer, GRIDSERVE
5 https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/plans-for-100-uk-ev-charging-forecourts-unveiled-gridserve/
Page 28
Europe
EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY EMEIA P&U TAS Leader EY UK & Ireland (UKI) P&U TAS Leader EY Central, Eastern and Southeastern
Europe and Central Asia (CESA) Region
P&U TAS Leader
+1 410 783 3735 +33 1 55 61 04 18 +44 20 7951 6257 +7 495 641 2941
miles.huq@ey.com arnaud.de.giovanni@fr.ey.com jcurtin@uk.ey.com grigory.s.arutunyan@ru.ey.com
EY Mediterranean P&U TAS Leader EY Germany, Switzerland and Austria (GSA) EY Western Europe and Maghreb (WEM) EY Nordics P&U TAS Leader
P&U TAS Leader P&U TAS Leader
+39 027 2212 3090 +49 211 9352 18523 +31 88 40 78776 +45 2529 3135
giacomo.chiavari@it.ey.com andreas.siebel@de.ey.com bruno.jelgerhuis.swildens@nl.ey.com michael.bruhn@dk.ey.com
Page 29
Asia-Pacific
Investors focus on
greenfield renewables
Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Asia-Pacific
US$4.1b
Transaction highlights
“
Asia-Pacific is feeling the
pressure of slowing
total deal value, a 45% decline from Q4 2018
Deal value and volume fall
• Deal value and volume decreased 45%
quarter-on-quarter, reaching a low of 27
deals totaling US$4.1b.
US$3.6b
Chinese privatization dominates Q1
Chinese economic • The quarter’s largest deal — 70% of deal
value — was China Power New Energy’s
growth. This, coupled deal value in renewables – 88% of deal value delisting of China Power Clean Energy
with continuing Development Company Limited (CP Clean
Energy) from the Hong Kong Stock
geopolitical tensions, Chart 9: Asia-Pacific deal value and volume by segment Exchange.
(announced asset and corporate-level deals, Q1 2017–Q1 2019)
weighed heavy on Renewables drive activity
Page 31
Asia-Pacific
“
Executing an MOU with Equinor will become a critical opportunity
that will advance to practical steps of floating offshore wind in
Korea. We plan to actively focus on progress and de-risking studies,
including feasibility studies in collaboration with Equinor6.
Jae-Heon Shim,
Senior Vice President, KNOC
6 https://www.power-technology.com/news/knoc-equinor-south-korea/
Page 32
Asia-Pacific
“
0.2
Page 33
Asia-Pacific
Announcement Target Target country/ Bidder Deal value Bidder rationale Segment
Investment in India’s
date bidder country (US$b)
solar sector is on the
Aligns with bidder’s
strategy to expand its rise.
China Power Clean
Greater China/ China Power International 2.9 renewables portfolio
28 March Energy Development Co. Renewables
Greater China Holding Limited and delist the target
Ltd. (73.58% stake)
company from the Hong
Kong Stock Exchange
CDC Group plc; National
Furthers bidder’s strategy
Ayana Renewable Power Investment and
1 March India/UK 0.3 to expand into India’s Renewables
Private Limited Infrastructure Fund (NIIF);
renewable energy market
EverSource Capital Group
Youngduk Wind Power
Samtan Co., Ltd.; Shinhan Supports investors’ plans
Co., Ltd.; Yeong Yang South Korea/ South
22 February Alternative Investment 0.2 to expand into wind Renewables
Wind Power Korea
Management Inc. energy
Corporation
Qinhuangdao Qinre
Electric Power Co., Ltd. Enables Jionto Energy
(40% stake); Hebei Greater China/ Jointo Energy Investment Investment to consolidate
7 March 0.2 Generation
Zhanghewan Storage Greater China Co., Ltd. Hebei market share and enhance
Power Generation Co., power generation capacity
Ltd. (45% stake)
Improves the financing
TBEA Xinjiang New Bank of Communications capacities of Xinjiang and
Greater China/
20 March Energy Co., Ltd. Financial Asset 0.1 supports the development Renewables
Greater China
(15.02% stake) Investment Co., Ltd. and operation of wind and
solar projects
Note: All deals are announced deals, and the values indicated are disclosed enterprise values comprised of equity and debt components.
Page 34
Asia-Pacific
135%
95%
The EV/FY2 EBITDA of the sector traded
3 slightly downward at 10.3x, compared with 85%
11.7x in Q4 2018. 01/01/2019 15/01/2019 29/01/2019 12/02/2019 26/02/2019 12/03/2019 26/03/2019
Note: Please see the appendix for information on the company assignment to each segment.
Page 35
Asia-Pacific
• The water and wastewater segment returned a • Renewables assets returned a quarterly TSR of • The generation assets returned a quarterly TSR • Gas utility assets returned a quarterly TSR of
quarterly TSR of 14.1%, above the regional 27.6%, which is above the regional index of -0.6%, below the regional index average of 8.7%, which is above the regional index average
index average of 8.2%. average of 8.2%. 8.2%. of 8.2%.
• The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 9.9x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 12.5x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 7.8x, • The EV/FY2 EBITDA multiple traded at 14.8x,
which is below the average regional sector which is 21% above the average regional sector which is 25% below the average regional sector which is 43% above the average regional sector
multiple. The result is greater than that of multiple and greater than that of Europe and multiple. The result is greater than that of multiple and greater than the results of Europe
Europe (8.5x) but less than that of Americas Americas (9.1x and 11.7x, respectively). Europe (5.7x) but less than that achieved in and Americas (9.8x and 11.1x, respectively).
(13.6x). Americas (8.3x).
Note: EY analysis is based on data sourced from S&P Capital IQ. Please see the appendix for the detailed definitions, the company segment definitions and the company tagging for the valuations analysis.
Page 36
Asia-Pacific
US$9.2b • Bangladesh has become an attractive investment destination, particularly for solar projects. The
country plans to add 2,500 MW capacity each year, with a target of 10% renewables by 2021. In
this quarter alone, more than 150 MW of new solar projects and tenders have been announced.
The World Bank has approved US$185m in credit to facilitate the development of an additional
310 MW renewable energy generation capacity to meet growing demand for electricity, which is
of offshore wind tenders to be also encouraging private investment.
launched by Japan in 2019
“
installations can export excess power to the grid, with a feed-in tariff for up to 100 MW of
capacity. The project is in line with the Power Development Plan that targets 12.7 GW of solar by
2037.
We have a number of charging stations
in the central business district, but
residential charging stations will mean Electric vehicle (EV) pilots aim to boost adoption
EVs could be a practical option for • Panasonic is collaborating with BSES Yamuna Power Limited to set up an EV charging station at
its New Delhi head office to study charging behavior and patterns, real-time charging data, app-
Wellingtonians wanting to make the based controls and automated payment mechanisms. New Zealand’s Wellington City Council
switch to them7. announced plans to install its first EV charging stations in residential areas, enabling people
without access to household parking to charge EVs overnight.
Justin Lester,
Mayor, Wellington City
7 https://wellington.govt.nz/your-council/news/2019/03/15-ev-chargers-for-the-suburbs.
Page 37
Asia-Pacific
EY Global P&U TAS Leader EY Oceania P&U TAS Leader EY ASEAN P&U TAS Leader EY Greater China P&U TAS Leader
+1 410 783 3735 +61 2 9248 4817 +65 6309 6208 +86 10 5815 3891
miles.huq@ey.com nick.cardno@au.ey.com gilles.pascual@sg.ey.com alex.zhu@cn.ey.com
EY India P&U TAS Leader EY Japan P&U TAS Leader EY Korea P&U TAS Leader
Page 38
Africa and the
Middle East
Governments focus on
renewable energy while
financial sponsors invest
Power transactions and trends Q1 2019
Africa and the Middle East
235.2m
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
• In February, France’s ENGIE began operations of its 100 MW Kathu
solar CSP plus storage plant located in South Africa’s Northern Cape
province.
Chart 12: Africa and the Middle East deal value
smart meters to be (announced asset and corporate-level deals, 2010–Q1 2019) Largest deal of the region in water and wastewater
installed in Africa and • Majis Industrial Services S.A.O.C, an Oman-based, government-owned
7
company, acquired an undisclosed stake in Utico FZC, the UAE-based
the Middle East by 2030 6
company engaged in water treatment and management solutions, for
5
a consideration of US$400m.
4
US$b
Page 40
Africa and the Middle East
“
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has set a
clear energy strategy to substantially
40 GW
of solar energy capacity in Saudi Arabia by 2030
Weak economic conditions drive privatization and • The government has followed the successful connection of its first solar IPP in
January with the announcement of several new renewables tenders, including
unbundling
a 2.6 GW of solar in Makkah, the Dumat Al Jandal wind farm and seven
• Oman plans to privatize two power companies by selling 70% and greenfield solar PV projects with a combined capacity of 1,500 MW.
49% stakes in Muscat Electricity Distribution Company and Oman
Electricity Transmission Company, respectively, following weak
economic conditions due to depressed oil prices. The government South Africa moves to boost clean energy
has expressions of interest from 25 investors.
• After a three-year hiatus of the country’s Renewable Energy Independent
• South Africa is considering unbundling state-owned utility Eskom Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), the end of March saw
into three separate units: generation, transmission and distribution. the signing of 27 outstanding renewables PPAs.
The utility has faced financial, operational and governance
challenges in recent years. • This development is expected to lead the way for more renewables projects —
a new round of bidding will be launched later this year with an estimated
program of 1,800 MW capacity.
8 https://masdar.ae/en/news-and-events/news/2019/01/11/11/46/the-edf-renewables-masdar-consortium-awarded-the-dumat-al-jandal-wind-project-in-saudi-arabia
Page 41
Africa and the Middle East
“
I am so excited to launch this third expedition of the
electric cars. This is an indication of how technology has US$1.68b
evolved in the UAE over the years. The government will
estimated value of the Gulf region’s smart
continue to promote all types of conservation drives in the
country as we look forward towards sustainability9. grid market by 2026
Suhail Mohammed Faraj Al Mazroui,
UAE Minister of Energy & Industry
9 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/nation/abu-dhabi/twelve-electric-cars-start-2000-km-trip-to-spread-the-green-message
Page 42
Africa and the Middle East
Top five Africa and the Middle East greenfield investments — Q1 2019
Ministry of Finance and Economic Plans to develop solar PV plants with a combined
Ethiopia Renewables
Development/Ethiopia capacity of 800 MW at an investment of US$795m
Oman Power and Water Will invest US$400m to set up a 500 MW solar PV
Oman Renewables
Procurement Company/Oman project
Ministry of Energy, Industry and Plans to build solar projects of 2,600 MW capacity in
Saudi Arabia Renewables
Mineral Resources/Saudi Arabia Makkah region
Page 43
Africa and the Middle East
US$1.7b
power entire communities, reached almost US$1.7b by the end of 2018, up from almost
zero in 2010.
• A sector traditionally funded by nonprofits has seen the entrance of large strategic
investors, including European utilities, such as ENGIE and EDF; oil and gas majors,
including Shell and Total; and energy technology providers, including Schneider Electric.
Page 44
Africa and the Middle East
EY Africa and the Middle East Transaction Advisory Services P&U contacts
Page 45
Appendix
Appendix: Definitions
Segment EY definition
Large market capitalization Utilities with market capitalization more than US$10b and engaged in multiple segments of the power value chain —
generation, T&D, and retail or T&D and retail — and utilities that have T&D business and substantial presence in
other segments, as well as from the perspective of revenues
Medium and small market Utilities with market capitalization less than US$10b and engaged in multiple segments of the power value chain —
capitalization generation, T&D, and retail or T&D and retail — and utilities that have T&D business and substantial presence in
other segments, as well as from the perspective of revenues
Gas Utilities that generate the majority of their revenues from downstream gas, including transmission, distribution and
the sale of gas as an energy source
Generation Utilities that generate the majority of their revenues from power production through large centralized
(nonrenewable) sources, including coal, gas, oil, large hydro and nuclear
Renewables Utilities that are engaged in generating power from centralized or distributed renewable energy sources, including
solar, wind and small hydro
Water and wastewater Utilities that manage water and wastewater networks, and engage in the distribution, supply or treatment of water
and wastewater
Page 47
Appendix: Americas
Large market capitalization Medium and small market capitalization Gas Renewables
integrated integrated AltaGas Ltd. AES Tietê Energia S.A.
Alliant Energy Corp. Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. Atmos Energy Corp. Boralex Inc.
Ameren Corp. ALLETE, Inc. Chesapeake Utilities Corp. Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
American Electric Power Company, Inc. ATCO Ltd. National Fuel Gas Company Canadian Solar Inc.
Avangrid, Inc. Avista Corp. New Jersey Resources Corp. Clearway Energy, Inc.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc. Black Hills Corp. NiSource Inc. Covanta Holding Corp.
CMS Energy Corp. Canadian Utilities Ltd. Northwest Natural Holding Company CPFL Energias Renováveis S.A.
Consolidated Edison, Inc. Companhia Energética de Brasília - CEB ONE Gas, Inc. Innergex Renewable Energy Inc.
Dominion Energy, Inc. Crius Energy Trust RGC Resources, Inc. NextEra Energy Partners, LP
DTE Energy Company EDP - Energias do Brasil S.A. South Jersey Industries, Inc. Northland Power Inc.
Duke Energy Corp. El Paso Electric Company Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Ormat Technologies, Inc.
Edison International Emera Inc. Spire Inc. Pattern Energy Group Inc.
Entergy Corp. Genie Energy Ltd. TransCanada Corp. SunPower Corp.
Evergy, Inc. Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. UGI Corp. Sunrun Inc.
Eversource Energy Hydro One Ltd. Valener Inc. TerraForm Power, Inc.
Exelon Corp. Just Energy Group Inc. TransAlta Renewables Inc.
FirstEnergy Corp. Light S.A. Vivint Solar, Inc.
Fortis Inc. MDU Resources Group, Inc.
Generation
Integrated utility in Pennsylvania MGE Energy, Inc. Capital Power Corp.
NextEra Energy, Inc. NorthWestern Corp. CESP - Companhia Energética de São Paulo Water and wastewater
NRG Energy, Inc. American States Water Company
Pinnacle West Capital Corp. OGE Energy Corp.
The AES Corp. American Water Works Company, Inc.
Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. Otter Tail Corp.
TransAlta Corp. Aqua America, Inc.
Sempra Energy PG&E Corp.
Vistra Energy Corp. Artesian Resources Corp.
Southern Company PNM Resources, Inc.
California Water Service Group
WEC Energy Group, Inc. Portland General Electric Company
Connecticut Water Service, Inc.
Xcel Energy Inc. SCANA Corp.
Consolidated Water Co. Ltd.
Spark Energy, Inc.
Middlesex Water Company
Unitil Corp.
SJW Group
Vectren Corp.
The York Water Company
Page 48
Appendix: Europe
Large market capitalization Medium and small market capitalization Gas Renewables
integrated integrated AS Latvijas Gaze aventron AG
CEZ, a. s. ACCIONA, S.A. Enagás, S.A. EDP Renováveis, S.A.
E.ON SE Alpiq Holding AG Hera S.p.A. Energiekontor AG
EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A. Centrica plc Italgas S.p.A. Falck Renewables S.p.A.
Electricité de France S.A. Drax Group plc Naturgy Energy Group, S.A. FUTUREN SA
Endesa, S.A. Elia System Operator SA Rubis Ørsted A/S
Enel SpA EnBW Energie Baden-Württemberg AG Snam S.p.A. Terna Energy Societe Anonyme Commercial
ENGIE SA Enea S.A. Technical Company S.A.
Fortum Oyj EVN AG
Iberdrola, S.A. PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. Generation
innogy SE Public Joint Stock Company Inter RAO UES A2A S.p.A. Water and wastewater
National Grid plc Public Joint-Stock Company Moscow United Irkutsk Public Joint Stock Company of Pennon Group Plc
Red Eléctrica Corporación, S.A. Electric Grid Company Energetics and Electrification Severn Trent Plc
RWE Aktiengesellschaft Public Power Corp. S.A. Public Joint Stock Company Donbasenergo SUEZ SA
SSE plc Rosseti, Public Joint Stock Company Public Joint-Stock Company Federal Hydro- United Utilities Group PLC
TAURON Polska Energia S.A. Generating Company - RusHydro Veolia Environnement S.A.
Terna - Rete Elettrica Nazionale Società per
Azioni Uniper SE
VERBUND AG
Page 49
Appendix: Asia-Pacific
Large market capitalization Medium and small market capitalization Gas Renewables
integrated integrated APA Group CECEP Wind-power Corp. Co., Ltd.
Chubu Electric Power Company, Inc. AGL Energy Ltd. China Gas Holdings Ltd. China Datang Corp. Renewable Power Co.,
CK Infrastructure Holdings Ltd. AusNet Services Ltd. ENN Energy Holdings Ltd. Ltd.
CLP Holdings Ltd. BKW AG Korea Gas Corporation Huaneng Renewables Corp. Ltd.
Korea Electric Power Corp. CESC Ltd. Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. Kong Sun Holdings Ltd.
Power Assets Holdings Ltd. Contact Energy Ltd. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk Meridian Energy Ltd.
Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. Shenzhen Gas Corp. Ltd. Ning Xia Yin Xing Energy Co., Ltd.
Tenaga Nasional Berhad ERM Power Ltd. The Hong Kong and China Gas Company Ltd.
The Kansai Electric Power Company, Inc. Genesis Energy Ltd. Toho Gas Co., Ltd. Water and wastewater
Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc HK Electric Investments and HK Electric Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. Beijing Enterprises Water Group Ltd.
Investments Ltd.
Beijing Water Business Doctor Co., Ltd.
Hokkaido Electric Power Company, Inc.
Hokuriku Electric Power Company Generation Binh Duong Water - Environment Joint Stock
Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy Co., Ltd. Company
JSW Energy Ltd.
China Power International Development Ltd. China Water Affairs Group Ltd.
Kyushu Electric Power Company, Inc.
Datang International Power Generation Co., Chongqing Water Group Co., Ltd.
Origin Energy Ltd.
Ltd. Daiseki Co., Ltd.
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding
First Philippine Holdings Corp. Eastern Water Resources Development and
Public Company Ltd.
GuiZhou QianYuan Power Co., Ltd. Management Public Company Ltd.
Shikoku Electric Power Company, Inc.
Huadian Power International Corp. Ltd. Guangdong Investment Ltd.
The Chugoku Electric Power Co., Inc.
Huaneng Power International, Inc. Luenmei Quantum Co., Ltd.
The Tata Power Company Ltd.
Mercury NZ Ltd. Manila Water Company, Inc.
Tohoku Electric Power Company, Inc.
NHPC Ltd. SIIC Environment Holdings Ltd.
Trustpower Ltd.
NTPC Ltd. TTW Public Company Ltd.
Vector Ltd.
OPG Power Ventures PLC Tus-Sound Environmental Resources Co., Ltd.
Reliance Power Ltd. VA Tech Wabag Ltd.
Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. WHA Utilities and Power Public Company Ltd.
Page 50
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