[ZA UVOD U THREAD: I had spent time thinking about whether to introduce gunpowder weapons

to my otherwise-technologically-Renaissance setting or not. This article is result of that thinking.

End result is: better not, unless you have a very good way of preventing any further developments
of gunpowder-based weaponry, or are fine with relatively quick technological progression.].

The main problem with guns in medieval fantasy is one of technological plateaus. A technological
plateau is the limit to which any particular technology can be pushed; after that, it simply does not
get any better without some kind of fundamental revolution. These technological plateaus depend
on fundamental technologies that go into them, and it is those fundamental technologies which
determine when the "stasis" occurs, or if it occurs. "Breakthrough" technologies are ones that break
through those plateaus and enable further development. I will be giving some examples of plateaus,
and what they might mean. Important point is that breakthrough technologies – such as gunpowder
– are revolutionary rather than evolutionary, and often discovered by accident. As such, they serve
as logical cutoff points for enforcing a stasis. Of course, since they can be circumvented – such as
jumping from crossbows to railguns – these are not perfect either, but important point is that they
cannot be circumvented without different breakthrough.
For a stone age society, technological plateau is based around usage of stones. They can have
spears, knives, bows and arrows; however, that is all. Fortifications will be wood or uncut, only
minimally shaped stones. There will be no swords, as they cannot be made with stones; any armour
will be based on leather, bone and possibly wood.
For a bronze age society, technological plateau is much higher. They can have bows, arrows, spears,
shields and full body armour. However, swords will have to be short, and many inventions will have
to take into account limitations of bronze. This is the lowest level at which a society may have
cannons, if gunpowder is introduced (in fact, bronze is superior to iron as material for cannon).
For iron age society, technological plateau is one of Roman Empire (for the most part – early
medieval Europe was in some ways technologically more advanced). Longer swords are possible,
as well as plate armour, but iron still has some fundamental weaknesses compared to steel. Gothic
plate armour is thus unlikely; much more likely are variations on mail/chain and scale armour.
Possibly, something akin to lorica segmentata will be deployed.
For a technology with developed production of steel, technological plateau is one of Late
Renaissance. This means Gothic / Maximilian plate armour, organized armies, pikes, heavy cavalry
and combined arms armies. It also means heavy presence of crossbowmen and pikemen, which will
limit tactical impact of heavy cavalry. However, since crossbows and other weapons are still limited
by muscle power (albeit in different ways) and mechanic workings, there is little possibility of
weapons developing enough to require abandonment of plate armour in favour of much thicker half-
plate, Since there are no gunpowder weapons, fortifications will remain essentially the same as in
earlier eras, except likely bigger and stronger (counterweight trebuchet says hi!).
For a gunpowder society without access to electricity, technological plateau lies in middle-to-late
19th century. If cartridge is not invented, technological plateau is somewhere in the middle of 19th
century: breech-loaded cannons firing solid-iron projectiles, ironclads (either wooden-hulled or
iron-hulled) with rammin spikes (since cannons will not be able to penetrate armour – see Battle of
Vis) and muskets. Fortifications will be those of middle-19th century as well, which means
fortresses with thick walls: possibly star forts or similar. Navies take on greater significance: instead
of being fundamental to combat, rowers become impediment as they get in the way of MOAR
DAKKA! As a result, ships become ships of the line and eventually ironclads; they become much
longer-ranged, proper oceanic vessels, and at the same time also gain much greater striking power,
and can threaten shore installations on their own instead of being merely way to get armies to
proper place. This in turn brings about the colonial era, colonial wars and eventually world wars.
Gunpowder weapons mean that somewhat-trained-peasants are actually dangerous, which means
that a) armies are no longer necessarily small, professional establishments, and b) a replay of
French revolution is very likely. But because armies now also require much more developed
logistical support – supplying cannon, gunpowder etc. - and because fortifications are much less
useful, it also means that nobles cannot play war any more, and that an army – be a professional one
or a mass insurgency – will have to be organized and supported by the state. Logistical support can
no longer be localized, meaning an end to feudalism.
If cartridge ammunition is invented, it means essentially World War I technology, except without
dirigibles/Zeppelins and aircraft. There will be trenches, rifles, heavy artillery, possibly steam
locomotives and railroads etc. Any fortifications that are not trenches will be dug into earth.
However, there will be no telegraph or telephone, which will impact politics as well as military
tactics and strategy. Soldiers will no longer line up in shiny lines as they will be shredded, and
invention of machine gun is almost a given. This in turn means industrial society and mass
production. Depending on whether railroad and telegraph have developed, warfare may end up as
either advanced form of Napoleonic wars (if they have not developed), or a replay of World War I
trench warfare (if they have developed); reason is that railroad and telegraph confer a huge
advantage on the defender, thus invariably leading to trench warfare.
For electrical society, technological plateau lays much beyond the modern age, in era of railguns,
coilguns, nuclear weapons etc. Nuclear weapons themselves may or may not be developed; this
however is unlikely as a society with electronic microscope is almost certain to start playing around
with atoms sooner or later.
What this means is, if one aims at creating a technological stasis – or at least a society which will
not change for long periods of time – there are certain technologies whose introduction should be
avoided. It is possible to justify not introducing a completely new technology, or simply ignore it; it
is much harder to avoid developing an already existing technology. It is possible to delay it:
gunpowder only became useful in guns after Europeans figured out wet-grinding process to produce
corned powder in late 14th century. Before that, it could only be used for rockets. Also, if technology
is introduced from the outside, improvements may not happen at all – when Commodore Perry
landed in Japan, Japanese were still using the same matchlock muskets that Portugese had
introduced them to some 250 years before. Neither did Africans ever learn to make their own
muskets.
Further, some technologies automatically carry certain implications. Gunpowder means that there
are very few problems which cannot be solved by merely applying more gunpowder to problem in
question. It also introduces scientific principles (chemistry), which makes it harder – though not
impossible – to avoid further advances. In particular, it invalidates the "four elements" conception
of universe as a sound scientific principle – which suggests that, if four elements actually is sound
principle in the setting, gunpowder may never develop – unless it happens to be a combination of
Earth and Fire, which is unlikely (or else clay pots become an impossible technology). In pre-
industrial societies, steam engines, mechanical clocks, cranes and possibly electrical batteries were
all known – but none were applied to their full extent.
It is however possible to use substitutes. Instead of gunpowder, one can use Greek Fire. The only
difference is that it does not explode, but that difference by itself is significant. Instead of guns and
cannons, there will be various types of flamethrowers and flammable projectiles. Clay pot with
liquid fire is about 1300 years old technology which even today nobody is sure how to exactly
reproduce. But due to its nature, Greek Fire has much less potential for future development, making
it inherently more digestible by a typical fantasy setting.
Also, "technologies" can exist that will lead to similar effects to already noted. If magic is a thing in
the setting, and mages have power comparable to gunpowder artillery, then either one of two things
will happen: either their power will be nullified magically, or it will be adjusted to tactically.
Magical nullification can take form of various magical shields and protections which nullify mages'
long range attacks. But this may well ask into question existence of mages in the first place, as they
would have no impact – unless they also have noncombat roles (e.g. scouting). If such nullification
is not present, adjustment will be tactical. In this case adjustment will be similar to historical
adjustment to gunpowder weapons. Depending on the power of combat mages, it may range from
"almost no adjustment at all" – in which case massed formations will continue to be used, perhaps
thinned a bit (such as replacing tercio-like formations with hollow squares or even lines) – to
"significant adjustment", likely adopting loose formations – which however will make infantry
vulnerable to cavalry. This could lead to cavalry-mage combination becoming a dominant
battlefield weapon. And presence of magic itself may prevent development of gunpowder, as it will
simply not be necessary.