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Профессиональный Документы
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Tci Convert
CO2 0.0167 44 0.7348 1071 17.8857 548 9.1516 P
N2 0.0032 28 0.0896 493 1.5776 227 0.7264 T
C1 0.7102 16 11.3632 668 474.4136 343 243.5986 ppc
C2 0.1574 30 4.722 708 111.4392 550 86.57 tpc
C3 0.0751 44 3.3044 616 46.2616 666 50.0166 ppr
i-C4 0.0089 58 0.5162 529 4.7081 735 6.5415 tpr
n-C4 0.0194 58 1.1252 551 10.6894 765 14.841 z
i-C5 0.0034 72 0.2448 490 1.666 829 2.8186 Cg
i-C5 0.0027 72 0.1944 489 1.3203 845 2.2815 Ug
C6 0.0027 86 0.2322 437 1.1799 913 2.4651
C7+ 0.0003 114 0.0342 361 0.1083 1024 0.3072
total 1 22.561 671.2497 419.3181
14.7
2634 psi
203 F 663 R
671.2497
419.3181
3.924024
1.581139
0.78
0.061247
0.02196 Cp 0.777
CtTpr 0.38
Cr 0.240333
u1 0.0122
u/u1 1.8
Core A Core B 0.9
k 134 md k 134 md
0.8
h 2 f h 2 f
porositas 0.1765 fraksi porositas 0.134 fraksi 0.7
Swc=swcr 0.33 fraksi Swc=Swcr 0.23 fraksi 0.6
Sor 0.2 fraksi Sor 0.3 fraksi
0.5
10000
1000
Q VS t
Juml ah Sumur
Trend 1
Trend 2
100 Trend 3
10
1
35600 36600 37600 38600 39600 40600 41600 42600
Date (Bulan)
Q VS t
Juml ah Sumur
Trend 1
Trend 2
Trend 3
Input Data Resort/Res
Metode Loss
Trend 1 Trend
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t Tanggal Qo (BOPD) dt (t1 - t2)
1-Sep-01 4528.7 1 1-Sep-01 4528.7
1-Oct-01 4281.45 2 1-Oct-01 4281.45 -1
1-Nov-01 4015.8 3 1-Nov-01 4015.8 -1
1-Dec-01 4028.45 4 1-Dec-01 4028.45 -1
1-Jan-02 3853.65 5 1-Jan-02 3853.65 -1
1-Feb-02 3246.45 6 1-Feb-02 3246.45 -1
1-Mar-02 2858.9 7 1-Mar-02 2858.9 -1
1-Apr-02 2635.8 8 1-Apr-02 2635.8 -1
1-May-02 2646.15 9 1-May-02 2646.15 -1
1-Jun-02 2594.4 10 1-Jun-02 2594.4 -1
Trend 2 Trend
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t Tanggal Qo (BOPD) dt (t1 - t2)
1-Sep-05 2577.15 1 1-Sep-05 2577.15
1-Oct-05 2061.95 2 1-Oct-05 2061.95 -1
1-Nov-05 2201.1 3 1-Nov-05 2201.1 -1
1-Dec-05 1695.1 4 1-Dec-05 1695.1 -1
1-Jan-06 1498.45 5 1-Jan-06 1498.45 -1
1-Feb-06 1445.55 6 1-Feb-06 1445.55 -1
1-Mar-06 1424.85 7 1-Mar-06 1424.85 -1
1-Apr-06 1301.8 8 1-Apr-06 1301.8 -1
1-May-06 1621.5 9 1-May-06 1621.5 -1
1-Jun-06 1277.65 10 1-Jun-06 1277.65 -1
1-Jul-06 1216.7 11 1-Jul-06 1216.7 -1
Trend 3 Trend
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t Tanggal Qo (BOPD) dt (t1 - t2)
1-Sep-09 1139.65 1 1-Sep-09 1139.65
1-Oct-09 1056.85 2 1-Oct-09 1056.85 -1
1-Nov-09 1021.2 3 1-Nov-09 1021.2 -1
1-Dec-09 946.45 4 1-Dec-09 946.45 -1
1-Jan-10 975.2 5 1-Jan-10 975.2 -1
1-Feb-10 961.4 6 1-Feb-10 961.4 -1
1-Mar-10 877.45 7 1-Mar-10 877.45 -1
1-Apr-10 900.45 8 1-Apr-10 900.45 -1
1-May-10 883.2 9 1-May-10 883.2 -1
1-Jun-10 871.7 10 1-Jun-10 871.7 -1
1-Jul-10 806.15 11 1-Jul-10 806.15 -1
1-Aug-10 887.8 12 1-Aug-10 887.8 -1
1-Sep-10 878.6 13 1-Sep-10 878.6 -1
1-Oct-10 840.65 14 1-Oct-10 840.65 -1
1-Nov-10 830.3 15 1-Nov-10 830.3 -1
1-Dec-10 693.45 16 1-Dec-10 693.45 -1
Resort/Resolusi Exponential De
𝐷�=𝑙𝑛
((𝑞�/𝑞𝑡))/𝑡
Metode Loss Rasio
Trend 1 t
dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt)) da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)
0
247.25 0.05775 17.3163 1
265.65 0.06615 15.1169 2.1994 -2.1994 2
-12.65 -0.00314 -318.4545 333.5714 -333.5714 3
174.8 0.04536 22.0461 -340.5006 340.5006 4
607.2 0.18704 5.3466 16.6995 -16.6995 5
387.55 0.13556 7.3769 -2.0303 2.0303 6
223.1 0.08464 11.8144 -4.4376 4.4376 7
-10.35 -0.00391 -255.6667 267.4811 -267.4811 8
51.75 0.01995 50.1333 -305.8000 305.8000 9
∑D = 0.58939 ∑b = 32.8171
Di = 0.05894 b= 3.2817
Trend 2 t
dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt)) da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)
0
515.2 0.24986 4.0022 1
-139.15 -0.06322 -15.8182 19.8204 -19.8204 2
506 0.29851 3.3500 -19.1682 19.1682 3
196.65 0.13124 7.6199 -4.2699 4.2699 4
52.9 0.03660 27.3261 -19.7062 19.7062 5
20.7 0.01453 68.8333 -41.5072 41.5072 6
123.05 0.09452 10.5794 58.2539 -58.2539 7
-319.7 -0.19716 -5.0719 15.6514 -15.6514 8
343.85 0.26913 3.7157 -8.7877 8.7877 9
60.95 0.05009 19.9623 -16.2465 16.2465 10
∑D = 0.88409 ∑b = 15.9600
Di = 0.08037 b= 1.4509
Trend 3 t
t
dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt)) da (a1 - a2) b (da/dt)
0
82.8 0.07835 12.7639 1
35.65 0.03491 28.6452 -15.8813 15.8813 2
74.75 0.07898 12.6615 15.9836 -15.9836 3
-28.75 -0.02948 -33.9200 46.5815 -46.5815 4
13.8 0.01435 69.6667 -103.5867 103.5867 5
83.95 0.09567 10.4521 59.2146 -59.2146 6
-23 -0.02554 -39.1500 49.6021 -49.6021 7
17.25 0.01953 51.2000 -90.3500 90.3500 8
11.5 0.01319 75.8000 -24.6000 24.6000 9
65.55 0.08131 12.2982 63.5018 -63.5018 10
-81.65 -0.09197 -10.8732 23.1715 -23.1715 11
9.2 0.01047 95.5000 -106.3732 106.3732 12
37.95 0.04514 22.1515 73.3485 -73.3485 13
10.35 0.01247 80.2222 -58.0707 58.0707 14
136.85 0.19735 5.0672 75.1550 -75.1550 15
∑D = 0.53473 ∑b = -7.6967
Di = 0.03342 b= 0.4810
Exponential Decline (b = 0)
𝐷�=𝑙𝑛
((𝑞�/𝑞𝑡))/𝑡
𝑞𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡= "qie−Di.t "
b= 0b= 0.1 b =
Tanggal Qo (BOPD) Di = 0.0619 Di = 0.0637 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
1-Sep-01 4528.7 4528.7 0 4528.7 0 4528.7
1-Oct-01 4281.45 4256.8829 0.1418 4250.2693 0.2287 4243.4741
1-Nov-01 4015.8 4001.3806 0.0520 3990.5532 0.1597 3979.5359
1-Dec-01 4028.45 3761.2137 18.9873 3748.1878 20.9560 3735.0545
1-Jan-02 3853.65 3535.4619 28.6366 3521.9162 31.2464 3508.3770
1-Feb-02 3246.45 3323.2600 1.7753 3310.5796 1.2423 3298.0090
1-Mar-02 2858.9 3123.7946 22.4628 3113.1091 20.7581 3102.5978
1-Apr-02 2635.8 2936.3014 30.7533 2928.5181 29.2584 2920.9173
1-May-02 2646.15 2760.0616 4.7013 2755.8956 4.3703 2751.8549
1-Jun-02 2594.4 2594.4 0 2594.4 0.0000 2594.4
∑x² 107.5104 ∑x² 108.2200 ∑x²
b= 0b= 0.1 b =
Tanggal Qo (BOPD) Di = 0.0751 Di = 0.0779 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
1-Sep-05 2577.15 2577.15 0 2577.15 0 2577.15
1-Oct-05 2061.95 2390.8046 45.2339 2384.6295 43.6638 2378.2213
1-Nov-05 2201.1 2217.9332 0.1278 2207.8110 0.0204 2197.4372
1-Dec-05 1695.1 2057.5616 63.8515 2045.3079 59.9644 2032.8961
1-Jan-06 1498.45 1908.7859 88.2108 1895.8651 83.3069 1882.9205
1-Feb-06 1445.55 1770.7677 59.7292 1758.3457 55.6439 1746.0282
1-Mar-06 1424.85 1642.7292 28.8979 1631.7197 26.2270 1620.9067
1-Apr-06 1301.8 1523.9488 32.3830 1515.0523 30.0165 1506.3920
1-May-06 1621.5 1413.7569 30.5266 1407.4952 32.5387 1401.4498
1-Jun-06 1277.65 1311.5327 0.8753 1308.2780 0.7170 1305.1594
1-Jul-06 1216.7 1216.7 0.0000 1216.7 0.0000 1216.7
∑x² 349.8360 ∑x² 332.0986 ∑x²
b= 0b= 0.1 b =
Tanggal Qo (BOPD) Di = 0.0331 Di = 0.0340 Di =
Tanggal Qo (BOPD)
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
1-Sep-09 1139.65 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65
1-Oct-09 1056.85 1102.5232 1.8921 1101.6647 1.8230 1100.7820
1-Nov-09 1021.2 1066.6059 1.9330 1065.0675 1.8068 1063.4939
1-Dec-09 946.45 1031.8587 7.0694 1029.8031 6.7467 1027.7113
1-Jan-10 975.2 998.2435 0.5319 995.8189 0.4269 993.3637
1-Feb-10 961.4 965.7233 0.0194 963.0642 0.0029 960.3845
1-Mar-10 877.45 934.2626 3.4548 931.4908 3.1352 928.7105
1-Apr-10 900.45 903.8268 0.0126 901.0523 0.0004 898.2819
1-May-10 883.2 874.3825 0.0889 871.7043 0.1516 869.0418
1-Jun-10 871.7 845.8974 0.7871 843.4043 0.9493 840.9364
1-Jul-10 806.15 818.3403 0.1816 816.1117 0.1216 813.9148
1-Aug-10 887.8 791.6809 11.6700 789.7875 12.1633 787.9284
1-Sep-10 878.6 765.8900 16.5866 764.3943 17.0631 762.9313
1-Oct-10 840.65 740.9394 13.4184 739.8963 13.7199 738.8798
1-Nov-10 830.3 716.8015 17.9714 716.2591 18.1573 715.7326
1-Dec-10 693.45 693.45 0 693.45 0.0000 693.45
∑x² 75.6170 ∑x² 76.2680 ∑x²
Hyperbolic Decline (b = 0,1 - 0,9)
Di = ((𝑞�/(𝑞ᵼ
))ᵇ−1)/
qforecast = qi(1+b Di.t)-1/b
(𝑏.𝑡)
Metode Trial Error & x² Chisquare Test
Di = (( 𝑞�/𝑞ᵼ )
−1)/𝑡 qforecast = qi(1+Di.t)-1
qforecast = qi(1+Di.t)-1
Perhitungan laju alir Forecast lanjutan dari masing-masing trend yang memiliki h
b= 1 b= 0
Di = 0.0828 t Tanggal Di = 0.0619
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
4528.7 0 0 1-Sep-01 4528.7 0
4182.2398 2.3534 1 1-Oct-01 4256.8829 0.1418
3885.0230 4.4022 2 1-Nov-01 4001.3806 0.0520
3627.2475 44.3762 3 1-Dec-01 3761.2137 18.9873
3401.5509 60.0883 4 1-Jan-02 3535.4619 28.6366
3202.2959 0.6088 5 1-Feb-02 3323.2600 1.7753
3025.0929 9.1303 6 1-Mar-02 3123.7946 22.4628
2866.4731 18.5629 7 1-Apr-02 2936.3014 30.7533
2723.6589 2.2057 8 1-May-02 2760.0616 4.7013
2594.4 0 9 1-Jun-02 2594.4 0.00E+00
∑x² 141.72794 10 1-Jul-02 2438.6815 107.5104
11 1-Aug-02 2292.3094
12 1-Sep-02 2154.7227
13 1-Oct-02 2025.3941
b= 1 14 1-Nov-02 1903.8280
Di = 0.1118 15 1-Dec-02 1789.5583
q Forecast = x² 16 1-Jan-03 1682.1473
2577.15 0 17 1-Feb-03 1581.1831
2317.9671 28.2768 18 1-Mar-03 1486.2789
2106.1522 4.2804 19 1-Apr-03 1397.0710
1929.8073 28.5456 20 1-May-03 1313.2174
1780.7110 44.7413 21 1-Jun-03 1234.3968
1653.0007 26.0350 22 1-Jul-03 1160.3071
1542.3830 8.9563 23 1-Aug-03 1090.6643
1445.6416 14.3123 24 1-Sep-03 1025.2015
1360.3196 50.1464 25 1-Oct-03 963.6679
1284.5078 0.0366 26 1-Nov-03 905.8276
1216.7 0 27 1-Dec-03 851.4589
∑x² 205.33061 28 1-Jan-04 800.3535
29 1-Feb-04 752.3155
30 1-Mar-04 707.1608
31 1-Apr-04 664.7163
b= 1 32 1-May-04 624.8194
Di = 0.0429 33 1-Jun-04 587.3171
q Forecast = x² 34 1-Jul-04 552.0657
1139.65 0 35 1-Aug-04 518.9302
1092.7737 1.1810 36 1-Sep-04 487.7835
1049.6013 0.7685 37 1-Oct-04 458.5062
1009.7105 3.9634 38 1-Nov-04 430.9862
972.7408 0.0062 39 1-Dec-04 405.1180
938.3827 0.5646 40 1-Jan-05 380.8024
906.3690 0.9227 41 1-Feb-05 357.9463
876.4675 0.6562 42 1-Mar-05 336.4620
848.4759 1.4211 43 1-Apr-05 316.2672
822.2170 2.9780 44 1-May-05 297.2845
797.5346 0.0931 45 1-Jun-05 279.4412
774.2909 16.6402 46 1-Jul-05 262.6689
752.3636 21.1807 47 1-Aug-05 246.9032
731.6441 16.2405 48 1-Sep-05 232.0839
712.0352 19.6431 49 1-Oct-05 218.1540
693.45 0.0000 50 1-Nov-05 205.0601
∑x² 86.2592 51 1-Dec-05 192.7522
52 1-Jan-06 181.1830
53 1-Feb-06 170.3083
54 1-Mar-06 160.0862
55 1-Apr-06 150.4777
56 1-May-06 141.4458
57 1-Jun-06 132.9561
58 1-Jul-06 124.9760
59 1-Aug-06 117.4748
60 1-Sep-06 110.4238
61 1-Oct-06 103.7961
62 1-Nov-06 97.5661
63 1-Dec-06 91.7101
64 1-Jan-07 86.2056
65 1-Feb-07 81.0314
66 1-Mar-07 76.1679
67 1-Apr-07 71.5962
68 1-May-07 67.2989
69 1-Jun-07 63.2596
70 1-Jul-07 59.4627
71 1-Aug-07 55.8936
72 1-Sep-07 52.5389
73 1-Oct-07 49.3854
74 1-Nov-07 46.4213
75 1-Dec-07 43.6350
76 1-Jan-08 41.0160
77 1-Feb-08 38.5542
78 1-Mar-08 36.2401
79 1-Apr-08 34.0649
80 1-May-08 32.0203
81 1-Jun-08 30.0984
82 1-Jul-08 28.2919
83 1-Aug-08 26.5938
84 1-Sep-08 24.9976
85 1-Oct-08 23.4972
sing-masing trend yang memiliki harga ∑x² terkecil pada Metode Trial Error & x² Chisquare Test untuk diplot dalam grafik
b= 1 b=
t Tanggal Di = 0.1118 t Tanggal Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
0 1-Sep-05 2577.15 0 0 1-Sep-09 1139.65
1 1-Oct-05 2317.9671 28.2768 1 1-Oct-09 1102.5232
2 1-Nov-05 2106.1522 4.2804 2 1-Nov-09 1066.6059
3 1-Dec-05 1929.8073 28.5456 3 1-Dec-09 1031.8587
4 1-Jan-06 1780.7110 44.7413 4 1-Jan-10 998.2435
5 1-Feb-06 1653.0007 26.0350 5 1-Feb-10 965.7233
6 1-Mar-06 1542.3830 8.9563 6 1-Mar-10 934.2626
7 1-Apr-06 1445.6416 14.3123 7 1-Apr-10 903.8268
8 1-May-06 1360.3196 50.1464 8 1-May-10 874.3825
9 1-Jun-06 1284.5078 0.0366 9 1-Jun-10 845.8974
10 1-Jul-06 1216.7 0 10 1-Jul-10 818.3403
11 1-Aug-06 1155.6922 205.3306 11 1-Aug-10 791.6809
12 1-Sep-06 1100.5105 12 1-Sep-10 765.8900
13 1-Oct-06 1050.3581 13 1-Oct-10 740.9394
14 1-Nov-06 1004.5777 14 1-Nov-10 716.8015
15 1-Dec-06 962.6213 15 1-Dec-10 693.45
16 1-Jan-07 924.0290 16 1-Jan-11 670.8592
17 1-Feb-07 888.4118 17 1-Feb-11 649.0044
18 1-Mar-07 855.4385 18 1-Mar-11 627.8615
19 1-Apr-07 824.8252 19 1-Apr-11 607.4075
20 1-May-07 796.3273 20 1-May-11 587.6197
21 1-Jun-07 769.7329 21 1-Jun-11 568.4766
22 1-Jul-07 744.8573 22 1-Jul-11 549.9572
23 1-Aug-07 721.5393 23 1-Aug-11 532.0410
24 1-Sep-07 699.6368 24 1-Sep-11 514.7085
25 1-Oct-07 679.0250 25 1-Oct-11 497.9407
26 1-Nov-07 659.5928 26 1-Nov-11 481.7191
27 1-Dec-07 641.2419 27 1-Dec-11 466.0259
28 1-Jan-08 623.8845 28 1-Jan-12 450.8440
29 1-Feb-08 607.4420 29 1-Feb-12 436.1567
30 1-Mar-08 591.8439 30 1-Mar-12 421.9479
31 1-Apr-08 577.0268 31 1-Apr-12 408.2019
32 1-May-08 562.9335 32 1-May-12 394.9038
33 1-Jun-08 549.5122 33 1-Jun-12 382.0389
34 1-Jul-08 536.7160 34 1-Jul-12 369.5930
35 1-Aug-08 524.5022 35 1-Aug-12 357.5527
36 1-Sep-08 512.8319 36 1-Sep-12 345.9045
37 1-Oct-08 501.6696 37 1-Oct-12 334.6359
38 1-Nov-08 490.9829 38 1-Nov-12 323.7343
39 1-Dec-08 480.7421 39 1-Dec-12 313.1879
40 1-Jan-09 470.9196 40 1-Jan-13 302.9851
41 1-Feb-09 461.4906 41 1-Feb-13 293.1146
42 1-Mar-09 452.4317 42 1-Mar-13 283.5657
43 1-Apr-09 443.7216 43 1-Apr-13 274.3279
44 1-May-09 435.3405 44 1-May-13 265.3910
45 1-Jun-09 427.2702 45 1-Jun-13 256.7453
46 1-Jul-09 419.4936 46 1-Jul-13 248.3812
47 1-Aug-09 411.9951 47 1-Aug-13 240.2896
48 1-Sep-09 404.7599 48 1-Sep-13 232.4616
49 1-Oct-09 397.7745 49 1-Oct-13 224.8886
50 1-Nov-09 391.0261 50 1-Nov-13 217.5623
51 1-Dec-09 384.5028 51 1-Dec-13 210.4747
52 1-Jan-10 378.1936 52 1-Jan-14 203.6180
53 1-Feb-10 372.0881 53 1-Feb-14 196.9847
54 1-Mar-10 366.1767 54 1-Mar-14 190.5674
55 1-Apr-10 360.4501 55 1-Apr-14 184.3592
56 1-May-10 354.8999 56 1-May-14 178.3533
57 1-Jun-10 349.5180 57 1-Jun-14 172.5430
58 1-Jul-10 344.2969 58 1-Jul-14 166.9220
59 1-Aug-10 339.2295 59 1-Aug-14 161.4841
60 1-Sep-10 334.3091 60 1-Sep-14 156.2234
61 1-Oct-10 329.5293 61 1-Oct-14 151.1341
62 1-Nov-10 324.8844 62 1-Nov-14 146.2105
63 1-Dec-10 320.3686 63 1-Dec-14 141.4474
64 1-Jan-11 315.9765 64 1-Jan-15 136.8394
65 1-Feb-11 311.7033 65 1-Feb-15 132.3815
66 1-Mar-11 307.5441 66 1-Mar-15 128.0689
67 1-Apr-11 303.4945 67 1-Apr-15 123.8967
68 1-May-11 299.5501 68 1-May-15 119.8605
69 1-Jun-11 295.7069 69 1-Jun-15 115.9558
70 1-Jul-11 291.9611 70 1-Jul-15 112.1782
71 1-Aug-11 288.3090 71 1-Aug-15 108.5238
72 1-Sep-11 284.7471 72 1-Sep-15 104.9883
73 1-Oct-11 281.2722 73 1-Oct-15 101.5681
74 1-Nov-11 277.8811 74 1-Nov-15 98.2593
75 1-Dec-11 274.5707 75 1-Dec-15 95.0582
76 1-Jan-12 271.3383 76 1-Jan-16 91.9615
77 1-Feb-12 268.1812 77 1-Feb-16 88.9656
78 1-Mar-12 265.0966 78 1-Mar-16 86.0674
79 1-Apr-12 262.0822 79 1-Apr-16 83.2635
80 1-May-12 259.1356 80 1-May-16 80.5510
81 1-Jun-12 256.2545 81 1-Jun-16 77.9269
82 1-Jul-12 253.4368 82 1-Jul-16 75.3882
83 1-Aug-12 250.6803 83 1-Aug-16 72.9323
84 1-Sep-12 247.9832 84 1-Sep-16 70.5563
85 1-Oct-12 245.3435 85 1-Oct-16 68.2578
ot dalam grafik
Grafik Kurva Decline Dari Masing-masing Trend
0 100000
0.0331
x²
0
10000
1.8921
1.9330
7.0694
0.5319 1000
Oil Rate (bbl/d)
0.0194
3.4548
0.0126
100
0.0889
0.7871
0.1816
11.6700 10
16.5866 Trend 1 Trend 2
13.4184
17.9714
1
0 35600 36600 37600 38600 39600 40600 41600
75.617034 Date (Bulan)
asing-masing Trend
Q VS t
Trend 1
Trend 2
Trend 3
Decl i ne 1
Decl i ne 2
Decl i ne 3
Trend 2 Trend 3
Trend 2
Date Oil Rate (Prod. Day) bbl/d t
1-Sep-09 1139.65 1
1-Oct-09 1056.85 2
1-Nov-09 1021.2 3
1-Dec-09 946.45 4
1-Jan-10 975.2 5
1-Feb-10 961.4 6
1-Mar-10 877.45 7
1-Apr-10 900.45 8
1-May-10 883.2 9
1-Jun-10 871.7 10
1-Jul-10 806.15 11
1-Aug-10 887.8 12
1-Sep-10 878.6 13
1-Oct-10 840.65 14
1-Nov-10 830.3 15
1-Dec-10 693.45 16
Acre-feet
Acre-feet
Trend 1
Tanggal Qo (BOPD) dt (t1 - t2) dq (q1 - q2) D (-(dq/dt)/q) a (-(q/(dq/dt))
1-Sep-09 1139.65
1-Oct-09 1056.85 -1 82.8 0.07835 12.7639
1-Nov-09 1021.2 -1 35.65 0.03491 28.6452
1-Dec-09 946.45 -1 74.75 0.07898 12.6615
1-Jan-10 975.2 -1 -28.75 -0.02948 -33.9200
1-Feb-10 961.4 -1 13.8 0.01435 69.6667
1-Mar-10 877.45 -1 83.95 0.09567 10.4521
1-Apr-10 900.45 -1 -23 -0.02554 -39.1500
1-May-10 883.2 -1 17.25 0.01953 51.2000
1-Jun-10 871.7 -1 11.5 0.01319 75.8000
1-Jul-10 806.15 -1 65.55 0.08131 12.2982
1-Aug-10 887.8 -1 -81.65 -0.09197 -10.8732
1-Sep-10 878.6 -1 9.2 0.01047 95.5000
1-Oct-10 840.65 -1 37.95 0.04514 22.1515
1-Nov-10 830.3 -1 10.35 0.01247 80.2222
1-Dec-10 693.45 -1 136.85 0.19735 5.0672
∑D = 0.53473
Di = 0.03342
b= 0 forecast
Di = 0.0331 t tangal
qo (bopd) qo (bopm)
Hasil
NP Forecast(bbl) NP Total (bbl) dNP(bopm) ooip = 58017231.832872
Npactual = 11455200
11455200 Nplimit forecast = 1151250.1310087
41092.9482 11496292.9482 41092.9482 EUR = 12606450.131009
80847.1963 11536047.1963 39754.2482 ERR = 1151250.1310087
119306.3558 11574506.3558 38459.1594 RF = 21.7288
156512.6171 11611712.6171 37206.2613 73.6167
ta =
192506.7964 11647706.7964 35994.1793 6.13472406
227328.3801 11682528.3801 34821.5837 Qlimit = 120
261015.5684 11716215.5684 33687.1883
293605.3168 11748805.3168 32589.7484
325133.3770 11780333.3770 31528.0602
355634.3360 11810834.3360 30500.9590
385141.6542 11840341.6542 29507.3181 100000000
Qo (bopd)
652688.0923 12107888.0923 20497.8552 10000
672518.1814 12127718.1814 19830.0891
691702.2584 12146902.2584 19184.0770
710261.3687 12165461.3687 18559.1103 1000
728215.8720 12183415.8720 17954.5034
745585.4650 12200785.4650 17369.5929
762389.2023 12217589.2023 16803.7373 100
778645.5181 12233845.5181 16256.3158
794372.2460 12249572.2460 15726.7279
809586.6385 12264786.6385 15214.3925 10
economic limit rate
824305.3861 12279505.3861 14718.7477
= 120 bopd
838544.6358 12293744.6358 14239.2496
852320.0081 12307520.0081 13775.3724 1
35000 37000
865646.6151 12320846.6151 13326.6070
878539.0764 12333739.0764 12892.4613
891011.5352 12346211.5352 12472.4588
903077.6742 12358277.6742 12066.1390
914750.7301 12369950.7301 11673.0559
926043.5086 12381243.5086 11292.7785
936968.3982 12392168.3982 10924.8895
947537.3836 12402737.3836 10568.9854
957762.0593 12412962.0593 10224.6757
967653.6420 12422853.6420 9891.5827
977222.9829 12432422.9829 9569.3410
986480.5800 12441680.5800 9257.5970
995436.5889 12450636.5889 8956.0089
1004100.8346 12459300.8346 8664.2457
1012482.8220 12467682.8220 8381.9874
1020591.7464 12475791.7464 8108.9243
1028436.5033 12483636.5033 7844.7570
1036025.6988 12491225.6988 7589.1954
1043367.6582 12498567.6582 7341.9594
1050470.4359 12505670.4359 7102.7777
1057341.8239 12512541.8239 6871.3879
1063989.3601 12519189.3601 6647.5362
1070420.3371 12525620.3371 6430.9770
1076641.8098 12531841.8098 6221.4727
1082660.6033 12537860.6033 6018.7935
1088483.3203 12543683.3203 5822.7171
1094116.3486 12549316.3486 5633.0283
1099565.8677 12554765.8677 5449.5190
1104837.8557 12560037.8557 5271.9881
1109938.0963 12565138.0963 5100.2406
1114872.1845 12570072.1845 4934.0882
1119645.5331 12574845.5331 4773.3486
1124263.3785 12579463.3785 4617.8455
1128730.7867 12583930.7867 4467.4082
1133052.6585 12588252.6585 4321.8718
1137233.7352 12592433.7352 4181.0766
1141278.6033 12596478.6033 4044.8681
1145191.7003 12600391.7003 3913.0970
1148977.3189 12604177.3189 3785.6186
1152639.6120 12607839.6120 3662.2931
1156182.5973 12611382.5973 3542.9853
1159610.1614 12614810.1614 3427.5641
1162926.0645 12618126.0645 3315.9031
1166133.9442 12621333.9442 3207.8797
1169237.3197 12624437.3197 3103.3755
1172239.5953 12627439.5953 3002.2757
1175144.0648 12630344.0648 2904.4694
1177953.9142 12633153.9142 2809.8495
1180672.2262 12635872.2262 2718.3120
1183301.9827 12638501.9827 2629.7565
1185846.0687 12641046.0687 2544.0860
b= 0b= 0.1 b = 0.2 b = 0.3
Di = 0.0331 Di = 0.0340 Di = 0.0348 Di = 0.0357
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0
1102.5232 1.8921 1101.6647 1.8230 1100.7820 1.7533 1099.8744 1.6830
1066.6059 1.9330 1065.0675 1.8068 1063.4939 1.6820 1061.8847 1.5588
1031.8587 7.0694 1029.8031 6.7467 1027.7113 6.4253 1025.5833 6.1059
998.2435 0.5319 995.8189 0.4269 993.3637 0.3321 990.8788 0.2481
965.7233 0.0194 963.0642 0.0029 960.3845 0.0011 957.6856 0.0144
934.2626 3.4548 931.4908 3.1352 928.7105 2.8293 925.9235 2.5377
903.8268 0.0126 901.0523 0.0004 898.2819 0.0052 895.5173 0.0272
874.3825 0.0889 871.7043 0.1516 869.0418 0.2307 866.3965 0.3259
845.8974 0.7871 843.4043 0.9493 840.9364 1.1254 838.4948 1.3150
818.3403 0.1816 816.1117 0.1216 813.9148 0.0741 811.7500 0.0386
791.6809 11.6700 789.7875 12.1633 787.9284 12.6589 786.1037 13.1562
765.8900 16.5866 764.3943 17.0631 762.9313 17.5366 761.5008 18.0069
740.9394 13.4184 739.8963 13.7199 738.8798 14.0174 737.8895 14.3107
716.8015 17.9714 716.2591 18.1573 715.7326 18.3388 715.2213 18.5161
693.45 0 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000
∑x² 75.6170 ∑x² 76.2680 ∑x² 77.0103 ∑x² 77.8443
Hasil
STB
STB
STB
STB
STB
%
Bulan
Tahun
BOPD 3648 BOPM
Grafi k Hasil
EUR = 12441,9202638
MSTB
Data Produks i
Decl i ne
Laju alir prediksi NP Actual
Waktu
b= 0.4 b = 0.5 b = 0.6 b = 0.7 b =
Di = 0.0366 Di = 0.0376 Di = 0.0386 Di = 0.0396 Di =
q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast =
1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0 1139.65
1098.9413 1.6122 1097.9821 1.5409 1096.9963 1.4692 1095.9831 1.3973 1094.9421
1060.2396 1.4375 1058.5584 1.3184 1056.8407 1.2019 1055.0862 1.0883 1053.2950
1023.4196 5.7887 1021.2204 5.4744 1018.9863 5.1635 1016.7176 4.8563 1014.4150
988.3651 0.1754 985.8237 0.1145 983.2556 0.0660 980.6620 0.0304 978.0441
954.9689 0.0433 952.2359 0.0882 949.4882 0.1494 946.7274 0.2274 943.9551
923.1313 2.2606 920.3359 1.9984 917.5387 1.7515 914.7418 1.5203 911.9466
892.7602 0.0662 890.0124 0.1224 887.2753 0.1956 884.5508 0.2858 881.8403
863.7698 0.4371 861.1632 0.5639 858.5780 0.7061 856.0155 0.8633 853.4769
836.0804 1.5175 833.6943 1.7326 831.3374 1.9597 829.0105 2.1983 826.7143
809.6179 0.0149 807.5191 0.0023 805.4538 0.0006 803.4225 0.0093 801.4254
784.3134 13.6546 782.5575 14.1536 780.8360 14.6526 779.1487 15.1513 777.4956
760.1023 18.4734 758.7356 18.9361 757.4003 19.3945 756.0959 19.8484 754.8219
736.9248 14.5997 735.9852 14.8844 735.0701 15.1647 734.1790 15.4405 733.3113
714.7249 18.6892 714.2429 18.8581 713.7749 19.0229 713.3206 19.1838 712.8795
693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0 693.45
∑x² 78.7702 ∑x² 79.7882 ∑x² 80.8983 ∑x² 82.1006 ∑x²
Data Produks i
Decl i ne
NP Actual
0.8 b = 0.9 b = 1
0.0407 Di = 0.0418 Di = 0.0429
x² q Forecast = x² q Forecast = x²
0 1139.65 0 1139.65 0
1.3252 1093.8724 1.2530 1092.7737 1.1810
0.9780 1051.4667 0.8712 1049.6013 0.7685
4.5536 1012.0790 4.2558 1009.7105 3.9634
0.0083 975.4033 0.0000 972.7408 0.0062
0.3224 941.1730 0.4347 938.3827 0.5646
1.3049 909.1551 1.1057 906.3690 0.9227
0.3927 879.1453 0.5163 876.4675 0.6562
1.0351 850.9633 1.2212 848.4759 1.4211
2.4479 824.4496 2.7080 822.2170 2.9780
0.0279 799.4627 0.0559 797.5346 0.0931
15.6490 775.8764 16.1455 774.2909 16.6402
20.2975 753.5780 20.7417 752.3636 21.1807
15.7117 732.4665 15.9784 731.6441 16.2405
19.3407 712.4511 19.4938 712.0352 19.6431
0.0000 693.45 0.0000 693.45 0.0000
83.3949 ∑x² 84.7812 ∑x² 86.2592
p z gp p/z
2034 0.869 0 2340.621
1834 0.87 0.96 2108.046
1734 0.88 2.12 1970.455
matbal
1634 0.89 3.12 1835.955 2500
1534 0.9 3.64 1704.444 f(x) = - 175.6707861213x + 2334.4561294767
1434 0.91 3.92 1575.824 2000 R² = 0.9731004863
1500 ma
Lin
500
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
matbal
+ 2334.4561294767
matbal
Linear (matbal)
12 14 16 18 20