UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

School of Astrology and Predictive Sciences: Business Plan: 2006/7 – 2010/11

Date: 1 March 2007

Author: Prof Seer, Head of School

1. Executive Summary

In the past, the principal element of the School’s strategy has been recruitment and retention of academic
staff in the run up to the RAE. This plan, for 2006/7 onwards, addresses developments post the RAE and
starts to move the focus to the further diversification of incomes streams and aims to expand the translational
research element of School activity in particular by establishing the Centre for Crystal Ball Technology and
Gazing Techniques. We are developing, in conjunction with the Association of Professional Futurologists,
premium fee programmes that we expect to appeal to professionals both from the Home/EU market but also
to overseas students. The consultancy element of activity is expanding undertaking projects for corporate
business and is also exploiting links with various governmental bodies.

In short the School is aiming to:

 Be Top 5 by 2010 in subject area
 Deliver 2% surplus in 2007/8 rising to 5% in 2010/11 whilst building significant School Contingency/
Investment Funds.
 Establish a Centre for Crystal Ball Technology and Gazing Techniques.
 Diversify income streams including premium fee PGT.
 Reduce its existing cost base by efficiency savings whilst making effective investments.
 Double annual research income by 2010

2. Context

Market conditions for the recruitment of postgraduates continue to be highly competitive and challenging.
However given the School’s increased marketing activity and proposed developments with employers, growth
is predicted. Whilst the outcome of RAE 2008 is not yet know the School is preparing to operate in the
revised research metric environment and anticipated the removal of the cap on UG tuition fees.

3. Forecast out-turn for 2006/07

The School has a good track record of delivering predicted positions. The original plan forecast a surplus of
£70k on a turnover of £6m. At the time of writing this commentary, the expected outturn as of the year-end
has changed to £60k. This is following an unforeseen shortfall of tuition fee income against plan was
approximately £80k (predominantly PGT) which was recovered by cost reductions and vacancy savings. The
savings in expenditure needed have impacted on the School and this year’s plan is less speculative with
regard to PGT recruitment with growth based on concrete evidence of increased interest/demand but with the
commensurate restraint in expenditure.

4. Income

4.1 Undergraduate and Postgraduate Income

The School is undertaking a review of undergraduate programmes with the aim of offering attractive
programmes and modules but not losing sight of the core business of developing excellent astrologists for the
futurology profession. We are liaising with colleagues in CAP to improve the School’s record on employability.
In particular we are developing ‘Predicting you future’ modules which believe these will also be attractive to
existing students across the University and will support the employability drive.

We are developing, in conjunction with the Association of Professional Futurologists, premium fee
programmes that we expect to appeal to professionals both from the Home/EU market but also overseas.
The aim is to exploit gaps in provision for Synthetic Astral Recognition with an MSc including a ‘with
Consultancy’ variant for 2007/8 entry which we anticipate will be attractive to potential practitioners in the
field. The School will be launching a new MSc in Experimental Planetary Juxtaposition for entry 2008/09. We
expect these programmes to be popular; the interest in the MSc in Synthetic Astral Recognition has been
outstanding for a new programme.

With the appointment of a new Head of Postgraduate Studies and following from Master Portfolio review
carried out by the Dean of PG Studies, we are undertaking a major assessment of our programmes, their
sustainability, attractiveness and positioning. Developments already in hand include fundamental
restructuring of the MSc in International Palm Studies and re-branding of the MSc in Aura Analysis.

The MA in Tea Leaf Reading is being re-structured to offer additional pathways (diploma and certificate) for
2008 entry in order to appeal to practitioners in this area wanting to improve their qualifications in line with
Government initiatives to regularise this field – this programme will also now include flexible delivery.

The School has recently undertaken a branding and market positioning exercise and is in the process of
analysing and assessing that information within the School and Institution. We anticipate the outcome of
those discussions to propose to the Programme and Pricing Group an increase of postgraduate fees for 2007
entry of 5% for the existing premium fee programmes.

In late 2006, we implemented a new marketing plan with a major increase in marketing activity made possible
by an increase in marketing expenditure of £20K plus an additional team member. This marketing activity is
over and above the recruitment activity undertaken during the 2006/07 cycle. As a result of this increased
effort we are projecting an increase in PGT numbers of 4% from 2006/7 to 2007/8 and an additional rise of
3% by 2008/9. These predictions are based on:

 An applications increase of 10% compared to March 2007 (80% of all PGT applications arrive between
January and September), which makes an increase possible through vigorous marketing activity.
 An increase in the average conversion rate from 10% to 13%.

Specifically, we expect a significant improvement in application rate from:

 30% increase in enquiries generated by online marketing services.

 Promotion of 25% fee bursaries and 50% fee Scholarships.
 Improvement in website optimisation with search engine as a result of an optimisation campaign started
in December 2006 involving an external agency and our CDO secondment.

We expect an overall 25% improvement in application to registration conversion rate (ie. a 10% conversion
rate in October 2006 will improve to a conversion rate of 13% in October 2007) for the following reasons:

 Increased communications with enquirers and applicants.

 An additional 4 recruitment trips arranged with School faculty.
 Substantial package of Scholarships and Bursaries for international undergraduates and PGT applicants.

Forecasts based on the School’s assumptions have been discussed (and subsequently adjusted) with
colleagues from CAP on the basis of expectations for each individual programme.

4.3 Research Income

There has been a significant increase in activity (submission of applications) through the consolidation of the
recently implemented School policy of supporting research applications. We are hopeful that over the course
of the next 18 months this will translate into the award of grants.

We have recently introduced a new mentoring system, whereby all members of academic staff (research
active, non-professorial and post-probation) have nominated a mentor. The role of the mentor is to take an
active interest in the research activity of the member of staff (publication strategy, research grant applications,
conference presentations, feedback after ROM meetings).

2
The School is developing a new research centre, the Centre for Crystal Ball Technology and Gazing
Techniques (CBTGT). This centre is led by innovative and dynamic Director and we anticipate additional
income from consultancy and research grants to be forthcoming. A detailed business plan has been prepared
for a four year period, beginning in academic year 2007-8 through to the end of 2010-2011 when it is
expected that the Centre will generate sustained surpluses.

We have agreed an increase in tailored support for individual academic staff from the Research Development
Officer. This support will centre around; resubmission of unsuccessful applications; next steps for those with
grants ending; and identifying opportunities for those with strong potential.

Whilst we acknowledge that the overall research figures are conservative in comparison to the benchmark
data; we feel the figures are realistic and are confident of achieving our targets. The School’s projected
figures have been discussed and agreed with the School’s Research Development Officer.

4.4 Income from Consultancy

The consultancy element of the School’s activity is expanding undertaking projects for corporate business.
The School now has good on-going relationships with some major clients and a number of proposals for
bespoke studies and predictions are being developed and negotiated. The Schools has links with various
governmental bodies with regard to providing the assessment of the future. These relationships offer the
School opportunities to join in collaborative work with colleagues in a variety of fields, for example working
with climatologists of climate change predictions, which are being pursued.

The establishment of the Centre for Crystal Ball Technology and Gazing Techniques obviously also offers
interdisciplinary activities in particular in the technological development of crystal balls and also the real
possibility of producing innovative balls and techniques for commercial exploitation.

5. Expenditure

Direct expenditure on Academic staff increases. Expenditure on staff appointments is almost entirely of two
types; replacement of staff who have left in the last year (one) and appointment of delayed posts from
2006/07 (three).

The increase in support staff salary costs can be explained by the appointment of support staff during the
latter half of 2007/08 and the plan to appoint to two new posts during 2007/08. Recently appointed support
staff posts include the Centre Manager, Centre Receptionist and Faculty Secretary. The Faculty Secretary
role was previously covered by temporary staff; the costs have therefore not increased significantly but
transferred from one budget line to another.

The centralisation of Postgraduate Admissions has resulted in the opportunity to divert existing staff into other
work streams and therefore saving the cost of new posts. This will lead to having two additional support staff
roles; both of which will support key income generating activities of the School:
 Strengthening of research support (1 FTE to be appointed 2007/08)
 Strengthening of graduate team (1 FTE to be appointed 2008/09).

We are proposing a further increase in the marketing budget to 100K (increase from 50K during 2006/07) in
order to support enhanced marketing activity and as a pre-requisite for increases in fees. As part of the
revised marketing strategy for entry 2007, the School is offering a comprehensive and varied package of
scholarships and bursaries which is reflected in increased expenditure in this area. As an extension of our
successful Golden Jubilee Scholarships we will be offering scholarship bursaries and language bursaries
targeted at our new MSc programmes and those which are in a particularly competitive field.
Other additional expenditure items introduced for 2007/08 include:

 30k minor works budget

 15k budget for the newly appointed post of Centre Manager (for promotional activity and minor
works)
 10k in support of extra curricular/employment-led activities for the School’s PGR/PGT students

3
  Additional sum of 10k to the equipment budget.

6. School Reserve Movements and Reserves

The School has absorbed the financial pressures and increased corporate contributions and has made
significant achievements in meeting its 2006/7 plan. The plans for subsequent years whilst still challenging
show the School’s position continuing to provide a stable platform expansion and development.

The School’s intention (post RAE) will be to build reserves for investments and smoothing expenditure over
time although current proposals appear to make this very difficult.

7. School Contingencies / School Investment Funds (SIF)

With its current financial situation, the School’s main contingency would be to delay or postpone
appointments of the currently unfilled posts. However the School does not endorse this strategy given the
high risks involved and is planning to build a School Contingency/Investment Fund to underpin future
riskbearing initiatives.

The majority of the School’s activities fall into the medium/high risk category; we are managing and mitigating
the risks by developing initiatives at numerous levels and diversifying income stream: undergraduate,
postgraduate, consultancy, and research and business development.

8. Risks and their Management

Risk Severity* Probability* Comment (indicators, management action etc)

Litigation / adverse High Low Indemnity insurance carried through Exeter Enterprise
impact on reputation covers a level of risk. There is an extremely small
in the event of probability of catastrophic failure. Rigorous quality
inaccurate control carried out on all consultancy activity is
predictions undertaken.
International student High Medium The School intends to mitigate the risk by enhanced
recruitment marketing activity (over and above activity undertaken
during 2006/07). There is a need to develop a wide
range new markets to reduce our exposure to a single
source.
Premium fee Medium Medium Charging premium fees may depress recruitment but
courses gradual stepping up of fees will test demand.

Sub-standard IT Medium Medium The School is making the most of the opportunity to
support having a work with the arrival of Director of Information
detrimental impact Services to address making efficient use of resources
on the student within the School and in Professional Services.
learning experience
and staff research.
Quality of Space Medium Medium The financial plan includes a small minor works
adversely affecting budget for improving entrance areas.
student recruitment Proposal going to Capital Planning Group for the
in particular premium transfer of Centrally Bookable Rooms for
fee. postgraduate study accommodation.

4
10. Other Comments

The School presents an investment led plan. Our key investment has in academic staff in advance of the
RAE to improve the RAE score. However we also have ambitions and initiatives led by key staff within the
School, both academic and support, to develop entrepreneurial activity at postgraduate levels as well as
developing business relations school-wide. Trying to invest in all these areas places us under significant
funding pressures. Given the highly competitive environment particularly in regard to postgraduate activities
it is essential that we invest in these areas to maintain and improve our market share.

We also have serious concerns about quality space. As our portfolio of premium fee offerings increases
quality teaching space is increasingly difficult to find. We are developing a two- stage strategy: short term
refurbishment projects to be completed for September 2007 (to address some of the quick-fix issues of
quality of our existing space) and secondly a proposal for the longer term development, use and allocation of
space (to address capacity issues and appropriate use of space particularly for student facing functions). We
will seek central funding and support through the Capital Planning Group to realise these aims.

5
Annex: Top 20 Performance

Summarise the Schools contribution to the Top 20 missions and summarise the School level targets
for each of the 11 indicators.

The School is one of the leading Schools within the institution and, whilst the University as a whole is striving
to be Top20, the School itself should be aiming for Top 5 status. The selected competitor group contains a
reasonable number of the Schools competitors and therefore The current reflects The following table
summarises the School ambitions which are supported by further detail and action plans in our Education,
Research and External Affairs Plans.
In terms of contributing to the Institution’s strategy of achieving top 20 status by 2010, we are committed to
the following:
 Providing academic and research staff with enhanced support for research grant applications and grant
management
 Embedding the concept of employability in all our UG and PGT programmes including specific
employability modules.
 Raising of our UG entry standards in conjunction with Admissions Office
 Building on our positive results to the National Student Survey

Indicator Current Competitor Target Target

Performance Performance Date
Research Income / staff fte 70.4 80.5 85 2008/9
RAE outcome (U*1*, 2*& (5%, 85%, 10%) N/A (10%, RAE
3*, 4*) 80%,10%) 2008
PGR /staff fte 2.3 2.5 2.6 2008/9
International Population 4.6% 5.8% 5.5% 2008/9
PG population 35% 31% 38% 2008/9
UG entry standards 382 390 395 2008/9
UG completion 98.5% 96% 98.5% 2008/9
UG degree classifications 75% 72% 75% 2008/9
NSS 15.5 (rank 15 in 15.2 (rank 25 Rank 10 in 2008/9
sector) in sector) sector
Graduate Level 65% 68% 68% 2008/9
Employment
Earned Income 50% 53% 51% 2008/9