Dan KALMAN AND DAN PRITIKIN rand Meister n-celle winced at the furious voice echoing round the Privy Council Chamber. Queen Regent Kursci, of House A-stir, came to the end of her tirade, “I want them all dead, and may the blade of Payne be rusty and dull,” she hissed, glar- ing at each man in turn. Ferrous, Master of Whisperers, stecled himself. “Yes, ‘Your Grace, But we must tread carefully. You cannot simply behead 100 knights of the realm without cause. Ask Meister celle, She pierced the grand meister with a serpent’s eye. And what have you to say’? Ferrous speaks truly, Your Grace. In such matters, it ‘were best to follow the ancient forms and customs with the utmost diligence. Imprisoning the most. valorous knights from all the great houses has already excited comment, And I remind you, knights of one great house should not be chained to those of another. It violates ancient tradition and sacred dicta ‘v's piteh black in those dungeons, and the prisoners wear only filthy rags,” said Kursei. “You ean’ tell one house from another, and if you can’t differentiate, the chain rule doesn’t apply. In any case, I know they are all, traitors ‘But without definite proof, Your Grace, must have a means to prove their innocence,” said Ferrous, he accused ‘Yes, indisputably,” intoned -celle. “Settle the fate CNM oaO A Tour of Knights of each accused knight by fortune’s decree. The gods will surely spare the innocent, But consider carefully what method of trial would be most suitable?” A quiet voice answered, “Perhaps the Game of Stones, Meister Kursoi regarded the speaker with disdain. Assistant Meister Sumwell Tarly, newly arrived from the Citadel, Timid as a mouse, he rarely dared speak in her presence. “What is this Game of Stones?” 1 read of it in an ancient, scroll in Castle Black's cel- impressed her not lar. Each knight's name is inscribed on a disk of stone, and likewise on a lidded coffer. The stones are randomly ibuted, one per coffer. Bach knight must then find a the stone with his name, He is permitted to open half of The coffers, and if none contains his name-stone, he has mh alled the trial TK pox on your Game of Stones,” cried Kursei. “Each knight has even odds of success. Half will go free ‘beg your pardon, Your Grace,” Sumwell said. failed to explain fully. AUI the knights must succeed, or all are condemned. Ab, yes,” said x-celle trial, now that you believe I remember this jumwell here has refreshed my memory. An ancient and honored rite, indeed. How perfectly fitted to the matter at hand.” “Though perhaps with odds a bit too transparently stacked against the knights,” purred Ferrous. “Each knight has even odds of suceess, but for all 100 to suc- coed is equivalent to tossing 100 consecutive heads with worw.maa.org/mathhorizons Math Horizons :: April 017.51 fair coin. They should be given at Jeast the appear- ance of a chance for salvation. ’Twould be more politic.” “Then let them have seven trials, in honor of the Seven Gods,” said t-celle, “If they are innocent, surely cone god will guide each knight to his namestone.” “Yes,” agreed Kursei, considering. “Every day for a ‘week we will remix and redistribute the stones. On the day that every knight has found his name-stone, they will al go free. And if the gods permit them to fail sev- ‘en times, the knights will be proved guilty.” She smiled crookedly. Even with seven chances to play, 100 heads in a row would be an impossible goal. Unless the gods tervened. “Yes,” she said again. “Let it be so. Sumwell inform the prisoners.” o_ “Wait, what now?” asked Ser Torus Lyrell, Knight of Flowers, and heir to the local maximum at High Garden, “Has none among you the wit to follow a simple plan?” Sumwell asked in exasperation. He had explained the Game of Stones, but the imprisoned knights reo- ognized neither their peril nor the hope of escape he offered, He turned to the least knightly of all. “What say you, Ser Davos?” Daves C-vorthy’ had never excelled in school, con- tent with his 2.0 GPA. But in later year, while sery- ing Stainless Baratheon, he'd found a surprising knack for logic. Through sheer logic, he had unified a chaos of distinct sects into a single combined sect, earning thereby his nickname: the Union Knight. With equal logical thought, he now analyzed the odds for the Game of Stones. “Let's se,” he said, “On any given day, each knight has probability 1/2 of finding his namo-stone. Each night's fate is independent of every other's, so all 100 will succeed with probability (1/2)!°, Even with seven, repetitions, the chance for escape is only seven in 2", or about 0.000000000000000000000000000006. You can't argue with that. It’s simple logic.” “So it: would appear,” said Sumovel. “Yet, in an ancient scroll I read of a strategy that defies the odds. I have sinmulated the game many times for groupe of varying sizes, finding remarkably consistent results. When the knights use the strategy, they all survive one time in three!” ‘The Union Knight considered. “With 2/3 probability of failure each day, seven fails in a row has probability (2/3)'. This follows the eminent probabilist, Ser Newly, because the repeated games are independent Ser Newly 6 April 2017: : Math Horizons :: www.maa.org/mathhorizons trials. We estimate (2/3)" using Napier’s bones, getting 0.06, And thus we have about a 94 percent chance of escape. How is that possible?” “I don’t know,” said Sumwell. “The scroll gave no ex- planation, but my experiments confirm it. Following the strategy vastly improves the odds for survival.” “Sounds impossible, But al right, Explain the strategy again.” “Gladly: When you enter the room of coffers, open the cofer marked with your name. Ifthe stone within says Ser Davos, you have succeeded and your trial ends. But supposed it bears a diferent name, say, Ser Torus. Then you next open his coffer. Again, you may find your name-stone. If not, whatever name you see, open that one next. If i says Ser Jury (who can always get a handle on Ser Torus) you look in Jury's coffer. If it says Ser Cumfrince (he’s too pious by a factor of r), then you look in his. It says Ser Jexion— “OK, I get it, I get it,” Ser Davos said. “Each name I find leads me to the next coffer. Clearly, if I open 50 cof- fers and never find my name, Ihave foiled. But will this strategy somehow lead me to my name?” “Not necessarily,” Summell said “But T know this: If you and all the other knights faithfully follow this strat- egy, the odds will be about 1 in 3 of all finding their cvn names on any given dey. By your own calculations, with seven days of play, you will ll survive with prob- ability roughly 94 percent.” “Tdon't understand it said Davos. “And I'm not sure T belive it. On the other hand, 1 know of no better strategy. So we'll do it. By the Seven, I shall make them learn and follow this strategy!” a ‘And so it eame to pass. On the frst day of the Game of Stones the frst knight was called. “Ser Amc, Champion of Porsalyn, stand thou forward.” Pale as bone, the night stepped up to the meister. “Do you understand the rales ofthe trial?" ‘The knight nodded. “Very well. Proceed.” Ser Amie surveyed the room: 100 closed coer, ar rayed on eight great tables. ‘There on the third table he spied the coffer bearing his name, He opened the lid and Jooked inside a Do the knights face virtual certainty of destruction, or nearly sure survival? Before reading any further, readers should analyze Sumwell’s strategy and work out this puzzle for themselves. Ml Ce neFigure 1. Ferrous put the numbers 1 to 6 in the six numbered boxes. umwell Tarly awoke with a start. Who could be knocking at the door this lat He roused himself, opened the door to find ‘A word with you, Sumwel, if you please,” he said, pushing into the room. “Tell me about this secret strategy for surviving the Game of Stones. Sumy vhy, what do you mean My Lord? ‘Oh, come now, drew on his robe 1 was stunned. “W said Ferrous. “I know all about your conversation with the Union Knight. My little birds can fly everywhere. Even into dungeons. Alas, they do not always understand what they hear. So, I have come explanation, Tell me about the strategy Sumwell’s heart sank. Would Ferrous report him to 1e queen regent? “If you know about the strategy he began, Ferrous cut in. “Don’t worry, I won't tell Kursei. The ‘gods have many ways to protect the innocent. Perhaps they inspired you to suggest the Game of Stones and to reveal the strategy to the knights. But the prospect of a loophole intrigues me. How is it possible?” T don't know,” Sumwell said. He repeated what he told Ser Daves, including the experimental evidence. ‘But how do you conduct such an experiment?” asked Ferrous. “Please show me! ‘Certainly, My Lord. For simplicity, consider six knights, and use numbers instead of names. There will be six numbered stones and coffers, and we will ran- domly put one stone into each coffer. Would you like to choose the order? All right,” said Ferrous, reaching for parchment and quill. “Here, I am drawing boxes for the six coffers, and putting one number in each.” (See figure 1.) ow,” said Sumwel, “Iet’s work out an entire day of the Game of Stones. When knight 1 takes his turn, he looks first in box 1. Finding a 6 sends him to box 6. That sends him to box 3.” “So he has failed,” Ferrous said knights can open only three “Yes,” Sumwvell said. “But let us continue his strat With six boxes, the egy regardless. From box 3 he goes to box 5. There he finds a 1, his own number. If he continues to follow the strategy, that would take him back to box 1, and from there the process repeats. “I see,” said Ferrous. “We could make a diagram showing knight 1's tour of all the boxes, like this: 1369335315, wore maa.org/mathhorizons Math Horizons :: April 2017.7“Bxactly. And that doesn’t just apply to knight 1 All the other knights in this cycle must also progress through the boxes in the same order. In fact, each of these knights would find his om number in the fourth box he opened, because it takes four steps for the cycle to repeat.” “And what about the other knights?” Ferrous asked, “Ab. Knight 2's tour is 2 4 2—..., 90 he finds his number in the seoond box he opens. And being in the same cycle, knight 4 will also sueceed with the second, opened box. Actually, a better diagram would look like this.” (See figure 2.) “Right,” said Sumwell, “And in that one diagram, you have portrayed exactly how the Game of Stones will play out. Four knights will follow the tour on the left ‘and the other two the tour on the right: Every knight in the frst group will fail to find his number in three attempts; the other two will each find his mmber on the second try.” “Yes, I see,” Ferrous said. “And clearly, no matter hhow many knights are involved, and no matter how the numbers are mixed up, some such diagram will govern the game. Every knight. will follow a tour according to whichever cyele he isin, and all that matters is the length of the cycle. For our game, every knight in a cycle of length 50 or less will succeed, but all ‘the knights in longer cycles will fail, assuming they all faithfully follow the strategy. But how does that improve their odds?” “haven't figured that out,” Sumwell replied, “though the strategy clearly invalidates Ser Davos's independence assumption. Each time the game is played, we mix up 100 stones and put them in the boxes. Now work out the cycle diagram for that mixing, As an ensemble, the knights succeed if every cycle in your diagram has length 50 or less. If 100 stones are mixed at random, what is the probability that no cycle is longer than 50? That’s the question.” “T'm a bit rusty,” Ferrous said, “at probability theory. But let us consider every possible way to place the stones in the boxes. How many are there? And in how many are the cycles all of length 60 or less? Answering, ‘these questions will tell us the probability that the nights succeed in any particular game, if the stones are truly mixed randomly.” “Lcan answer the first part,” Sumwell said, There are 100 choices for the frst stone, 99 for the second stone, and so on. In total, the stones ean be put into boxes in this many ways: 100-99-98---2-1. This was explained 8 April 2017 ‘Math Horizons :: wwwwemaa.org/mathhorizons —— ————— ————_ in the Game of Stones scroll. The ancients wrote this number as 1001, and there the scroll ended. The rest had crumbled to dust.” “But look,” said Ferrous. “There can be at most one cycle longer than 50. Say one cycle runs through 60 different boxes. Then there will only be 40 more boxes left over, 80 the eyeles for those boxes can’t be longer than 50. The same applies if there is any cycle longer than 50." “Agreed.” “So how many different orderings are possible if one cycle has length 60? First off, there are (a _ 100 on) ‘ways to select which 60 stones appear in the eyele Once they are selected, we can choose the lowest, among them as the first stone in the cycle, but the remaining 59 stones can be ordered in any way at all, 0 our 60 stones can be arranged in 59! different cycles, ‘Thus, a cycle of length 60 can occur in (1%]69! dlfler- cent ways.” “Wait,” Sunwell seid. “You forgot the remaining 40 stones. Those ean be placed into the remaining 40 ‘boxes in 40! ways. Therefore, of all the 100! ways to put stones in boxes, a cycle of length 60 will ceur in {i|50!401 of them. This shows that the probability of accycle of length 60 is _{100}591401 70 (60 J 1008 “Aha!” exclaimed Ferrous. “We get massive cancellation: 100! 59/40! 1 60140! 100! ~ 60 Can that be right? Tt seems too simple.” “It’s simple all right!” said Sumwell. “Simple like a fox! But it’s right. Now let me see . ..” He closed his eyes, mumbling to himself, then turned to Ferrous, beaming, “Yes it is right, and it shows the general rule. Poo Figure 2. Ferrous's illustration of the cycles of boxes.‘The probability of a cycle of length n is 1/1, as long as nis more than half the number of knights, “And that means we can compute the probability of success. The knights lose if there is a cycle of length 51, or a cycle of length 52, or a cycle of any other leutheweeing 60 Than et mal eco pa siete bes olabiies ad be eomnael Tap That's the probbity of fuze. Subtract tht fom Beautiful” said Forum "Thow Fit Me aad Fint “The” Sunwell "Towe Fit Peon sigue without a debt, And hres eomethng do, That ext Th Si on= Setanta ‘That is a value we can look up in this handy seroll of natural logarithms: In2 = 0.69. “That does it,” said Ferrous. “We have demonstrated the truth behind your experimental results. Each time the Game of Stones is played, the probability of failure is 0.68... which is very nearly 2/3. So each day, the knights have only one chance in three of succeeding, But they will fail seven times in a row with probability roughly (In2)" = 0.0768... That gives them a 92 per cent chance of winning at least once during the week.” “Excellent,” Ferrous said. “Most satisfactory. And tay I add that it has been a pleasure collaborating with you. But tell me: Do you always carry around a seroll of natural logarithms? on Epilogue On the fourth day of the Game of Stones, every knight found his name stone after looking in 50 or fewer boxes In fact, the largest number of boxes any knight openesd ‘was 43, and by a curious coincidence, exactly 43 knights had to look in that many bexes. Queen Regent Kursei was livid, and between hurling insults and erockery at her counselors, she demanded to know how the knights had accomplished this feat, beating astronomical odds. She herself had computed the probability of such an outcome to be at most 0.000000000000000000000000000006. Grand Meister r-celle pointed out the obvious explaation: in- tervention by the gods. Apparently the knights really were innocent of treason. Sumwell knew the truth: Kursei's caleulation included a classic error, fllaciously assuming independence of events. Wisely, Sumwell lft this thought unspoken. i Further Reading This problem was first proposed by the Dan computer scientist Peter Bro Miltersen; it appeared in an article with Anna Gal in 2003 (“The Cell Probe Complexity of Succinct Data Structures,” Proceedings Sth International Colloguium on Automata, Languages and Programming (ICALP), 332-344), Later, several people wrote about, and modified, the problem. Our presentation is most similar to Peter Winkter’s in the College Mathematics Journal (‘Names in Boxes Puzzle,” 37 no. 4 [September 2006] 260, 285, 280). Eugene Curtin and Max Warshawer proved that the eycle tracing strategy is optimal (“The Locker Puzzle,” Math. Intelligencer 28 no. 1 [March 2006] 28-31). Dan Kalman teaches mathematics at American University. He is known as the Crypto Knight for his undecipherable handwriting and mystic green glow. His prior Math Horizons articles include “Harvey Plotter and the Circle of Irrationality” (with Nathan Carter). Dan Pritikin teaches mathematics at Miami University. He dabbles in math parody lyrics to pop ” and songs, such as Katy Perry's “I Squished a C Britney Spears’s “Hint Me Baby One More Time hp:/uotorg/i0.4:69/mathherizons 24.45 wsrw.maa.org/mathhorizons:: Math Horizons :: April 2037 9