Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Steamboat Springs School District – Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Updated with 2014 Data - Western Demographics, Inc. - 12/28/14

Overview - In summer of 2014, Western Demographics, Inc. was hired to re-visit the enrollment
growth experience by the Steamboat Springs School District and offer a five-year forecast.
Western had been hired in 2005 to conduct a similar analysis. At that time enrollment in the
school district was stable and it was determined that the current two elementary schools were
fundamentally adequate to address current enrollment, but it was observed that a new
elementary school would eventually be needed.

New housing proposed for the west side of Steamboat Springs focusing on the Steamboat 700
development would be the primary driver for the enrollment that could fill a new school.
Developments in this area were not approved at the time and during the subsequent decade, the
developments remained un-built.

In 2005, multiple scenarios were generated that proposed renovating or adding additional space
to the old high school building currently in use for district administration. Scenarios for the
replacement of Soda Creek Elementary School and other scenarios adding a third elementary
school on a site currently owned by the district West of Steamboat Springs were also included.
Soda Creek Elementary School had been constructed in piece-meal fashion and crowding and
dysfunction at the school was tangible. Ultimately, bond funding was secured to replace Soda
Creek Elementary School and significant capacity was not added elsewhere.

In 2005, enrollment had been holding just below 2000 students in grades kindergarten through
12th grade. Enrollment then climbed to approximately 2150 and remained there through the
economic downturn. During and just after the economic downturn residents who were
predominantly employed in construction and real estate departed from the community and real
estate values declined. This phenomenon made it possible for families with school-age children
to move into the community and for significant numbers of non-location specific business
owners and employees, drawn by quality-of-life, to acquire housing in Steamboat Springs that
had previously been beyond their financial reach.

Beginning in 2010, enrollment growth accelerated as more families found it possible to afford
homes or rental properties in the community. The news of quality student programs in SSSD
along with a National trend toward home-based corporate employment and “Lone Eagle”
consulting businesses associated with the new economy further contributed to enrollment
growth. Enrollment growth of a scale originally thought to be possible only through the
construction of new housing was generated by Steamboat Springs’ existing housing stock.
Small-scale infill housing construction supported increased student generation in the existing
housing stock to a limited extent.

This growth has mostly crowded the district’s two elementary schools and made the need for a
third somewhat clear. Enrollment forecasts for the next five years support the need for a third
elementary school. Concerns regarding the permanent nature of demographic change in
Steamboat Springs and the long-term viability of this third school are offset by the continuing
potential for new residential housing West of town.
Western Demographics, Inc. 1 December 28, 2014 Update
Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Figure 1 illustrates SSSD enrollment growth trends during the past decade.

Figure 1

SSSD Enrollment 1999 - 2014

2600

2466
2401
2400

2320
2282
2233
2152
2142
2200

2077
2021
1979
1940

2000
1933

1930
1913

1911

1912
1800
1600
1400

1141
1200

1130
1115
1092
1057
998
988
1000

926
905
863
846

810

804
790

781

800
768

657 648 660 655 639 657 677 659 640 654 647 666 701 731
600 573 631 570 594
494 495 483 500 477 495 514 522 543 539
473 471 459 474
400
200
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (PK-12)

SSSD Births – 1990 – 2013 – Births in the Steamboat Springs community are somewhat down
from a high of 170 in 2009 according to the Colorado Department of Health. Generally speaking,
births are relevant to student growth but in community significantly affected by in migration,
birth become less relevant. SSSD birth trends are displayed in Figure 2.

Figure 2

Steamboat Springs School District - Births - 1990 - 2013

(Colorado Department of Health)
180
142

136

160
170

170
160

162

140
115

115
111
104

154

146
104

120
141
133

128
125

100
119
117
115
101
102

80
93

89

60
40
20
0

Western Demographics, Inc. 2 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Route County Employment – Routt County employment has not recovered from its pre-
economic downturn level of 15,394 jobs recorded in 2007. 2013 employment levels stood at
13,694 with an unemployment rate of 5.8%. Figure 3 illustrates Routt County employment and
unemployment during the past 23 years.

Figure 3

Routt County Labor Force

The table below shows the annual not seasonally adjusted Labor Force, Employment and
Unemployment data for Routt County in All years.
Time Labor Unemployment
Period Force Employed Unemployed Rate Preliminary
1990 8,249 7,907 342 4.1% Yes
1991 8,485 8,071 414 4.9% Yes
1992 8,747 8,141 606 6.9% Yes
1993 9,356 8,834 522 5.6% Yes
1994 9,839 9,459 380 3.9% Yes
1995 10,174 9,741 433 4.3% Yes
1996 10,290 9,880 410 4.0% Yes
1997 10,448 10,079 369 3.5% Yes
1998 11,131 10,727 404 3.6% Yes
1999 11,213 10,909 304 2.7% Yes
2000 12,541 12,227 314 2.5% Yes
2001 13,293 12,911 382 2.9% Yes
2002 13,985 13,460 525 3.8% Yes
2003 13,740 13,111 629 4.6% Yes
2004 14,134 13,574 560 4.0% Yes
2005 14,649 14,102 547 3.7% Yes
2006 15,176 14,693 483 3.2% Yes
2007 15,810 15,394 416 2.6% Yes
2008 15,673 15,144 529 3.4% Yes
2009 15,291 14,182 1,109 7.3% No
2010 14,486 13,106 1,380 9.5% No
2011 14,241 13,052 1,189 8.3% No
2012 14,320 13,299 1,021 7.1% No
2013 14,536 13,694 842 5.8% No
Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) Program
Downloaded: 07/31/2014 10:12 AM

Enrollment Growth and Other Colorado Resort Communities – School enrollment growth
and the trend toward non-location specific businesses has also been evident in other Colorado
resort communities. The resort school districts of Eagle and Gunnison have posted similar
growth rates to Steamboat Springs School District with 2.7% and 2.8% growth rates respectively.
Figure 4 illustrates this data.

Western Demographics, Inc. 3 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Figure 4
Comparable Resort District Enrollment Change – 2005 – 2013

Change 2005- % Change Annual %

Resort District SY 2005-06 SY 2013-14
13 05-13 Change
Buena Vista 986 968 -18 -1.8% -0.2%
Durango 4658 4659 1 0.0% 0.0%
Eagle (Vail, Beaver Crk) 5365 6520 1155 21.5% 2.7%
Gunnison (Crested Butte) 1577 1934 357 22.6% 2.8%
Roaring Fork 4969 5628 659 13.3% 1.7%
Salida 1116 1176 60 5.4% 0.7%
Steamboat 1979 2401 422 21.3% 2.7%
Summit 2918 3287 369 12.6% 1.6%

Steamboat Springs School District Residents Working at Home – Based on census data, the
number of Routt County residents working at home either as employees of larger businesses or
as small business owners grew from approximately 6.1% to 7.2% between 2000 and 2007.
According to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, in 2012, that percentage had
grown to 10.5%. Anecdotally, many business leaders in the Steamboat Springs community
believe that this percentage has continued to grow thru 2014 based on participation levels in
small business clubs and gatherings. These households are referred to elsewhere in this report
as non-location specific businesses (NLSB’s).

Student Distribution Maps – Students attending the Steamboat Springs schools were mapped
using software rich plots their residences on a digital map. Most students reside in Steamboat
Springs with the highest densities concentrated in the historic core. Routt County density is
very low, but many students reside there. Mobile home student concentrations in Steamboat
Springs are very high, but not significantly changed from 2006 levels. The following maps
illustrate the study areas, student counts and distributions throughout the district.

Figure 5
Steamboat Springs Student Distribution Study Areas

Western Demographics, Inc. 4 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Student Distribution Counts by Study Area – Figure 6 displays student counts by study area
including areas inside of Steamboat Springs in zones one through five, students residing in the
County and students residing outside of the district. Approximately 123 students live outside
the district and declared locations for these students are listed in figure 7.

Figure 6 – Enrollment by SSSD Study Area

Total in
School Year 1 2 3 4 5 County Out of District Database
2013 - 2014 223 172 443 500 311 462 123 2234

Figure 7
SSSD - Out of District Student Detail

Declared Town Enrollment

Hayden 15
Milner 32
Oak Creek 68
Phippsburg 1
Steamboat 6
Yampa 1

Figures 8, 9 and 10 display SSSD students by residence using the red dots on each map.

Figure 8
Student Distribution Map – Steamboat Springs

Western Demographics, Inc. 5 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Figure 9

Student Distribution Map – Northwest Routt County and Steamboat Springs

Figure 10

Student Distribution Maps – Southwest Routt County

Western Demographics, Inc. 6 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

SSSD Business Leaders Survey – August 2014 – Approximately twelve local business leaders
and realtors were interviewed in order to gain a reality check on some of the factors at work in
the district. The interviews were conducted via telephone with most respondents aware of the
increase in non-location specific businesses (NLSB’s) and decline of construction-related
employment. Many of those interviewed believe that the typical construction sector worker did
not have a family and the home businesses seem to have replaced them in the housing stock and
that these households do have school-aged children. Survey respondents were convinced that
more affluent families seem be locating in conjunction with NLSB opportunities and that the
economic downturn served as a catalyst to make slightly more affordable housing (for purchase
and rental) available to families.

Survey respondents were further convinced that the Steamboat Springs lifestyle and school
district reputation have further contributed to growth and that the NLSB growth is expected to
continue for the next five years. These factors combined should contribute to a steady growth in
the district ranging from 2 – 3% per year.

Enrollment Forecasts – Three sets of enrollment projections were developed based upon
economic and demographic factors in the Steamboat Springs School District. A low projection
based upon a five-year average of cohort survival factors, the medium projection basis reflecting
the last three years of growth and a high basis reflecting the most recent years’ growth are
presented in Figure 11.

Figure 11 – SSSD - Multi-basis Enrollment Projections – K-12

School Basis 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Soda Creek Elementary Low 612 653 690 715 744
Medium 610 651 697 737 784
High 615 668 732 792 863
Strawberry Park Elementary Low 506 510 510 521 519
Medium 503 509 514 535 547
High 506 521 540 575 601
North Routt Charter Low 93 96 100 98 98
Medium 92 97 100 99 100
High 91 97 101 102 104
Yampa Valley HS Low 25 27 25 24 24
Medium 25 27 25 24 24
High 26 28 27 26 27
Steamboat Springs Middle Sch Low 576 576 563 569 591
Medium 578 579 563 563 578
High 577 564 537 535 556
Steamboat Springs High Sch Low 731 749 779 789 794
Medium 735 755 787 801 807
High 737 766 805 813 811
SSSD Total Enrollment Low 2543 2611 2667 2716 2770
Medium 2543 2618 2686 2759 2840
High 2552 2644 2742 2843 2962

Figure 12 - SSSD Enrollment Forecast – Grade Level Detail – K-12

Western Demographics, Inc. 7 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Historical Enrollment by Grade Totals by School Type

Year K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12)

2007 125 150 161 172 167 151 169 157 148 183 167 141 186 926 474 677 2077
2008 158 154 154 168 171 183 161 168 166 157 188 179 135 988 495 659 2142
2009 146 187 157 159 175 174 182 172 160 160 150 173 157 998 514 640 2152
2010 161 187 201 163 163 182 170 178 174 164 159 158 173 1057 522 654 2233
2011 165 174 200 206 178 169 189 172 182 167 168 151 161 1092 543 647 2282
2012 161 185 182 196 206 185 181 193 165 179 165 171 151 1115 539 666 2320
2013 174 181 182 187 195 211 194 181 195 179 178 165 179 1130 570 701 2401
2014 190 195 188 191 183 194 213 190 191 193 190 175 173 1141 594 731 2466

Low
Basis -
Last 5
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12)
years,
Hold K @
+1/yr
SY15-16 191 213 203 192 194 188 199 213 192 192 195 190 179 1181 604 756 2541
SY16-17 192 214 221 207 195 199 193 199 215 193 194 195 194 1227 607 777 2611
SY17-18 193 215 222 225 210 200 204 193 201 216 196 194 199 1264 597 805 2667
SY18-19 194 216 223 226 228 215 205 203 195 202 218 196 198 1301 603 814 2719
SY19-20 195 217 224 227 229 233 220 205 206 196 204 218 199 1324 630 818 2772

Medium
Basis -
K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12)
Last 3
years
SY15-16 198 210 199 191 189 187 202 213 192 194 196 190 180 1175 606 760 2541
SY16-17 207 219 214 202 190 193 194 202 215 195 197 196 195 1225 611 782 2618
SY17-18 215 227 223 218 201 193 201 194 203 218 197 197 201 1276 598 813 2687
SY18-19 223 235 231 226 216 204 201 201 196 206 220 197 202 1336 598 826 2760
SY19-20 232 244 239 234 224 220 212 201 202 199 209 220 203 1393 615 831 2839

High
Basis - K 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12)
Last 1
SY15-16 206 211 202 197 187 182 196 209 200 189 204 187 183 1185 605 763 2553
SY16-17 222 227 218 211 193 186 184 192 219 198 200 201 195 1257 595 794 2646
SY17-18 238 243 234 227 207 192 188 180 202 217 209 197 209 1341 570 832 2743
SY18-19 254 259 250 243 223 206 194 184 190 200 228 206 205 1435 568 839 2842
SY19-20 270 275 266 259 239 222 208 190 194 188 211 225 214 1531 592 838 2961

SSSD School Capacity Calculations – Western Demographics recalculated school capacities

based on inspection of the four primary school buildings. The Western Demographics model
assumes setting aside appropriate academic spaces that are used for pull-out purposes.
Computer labs were set-aside at the rate of two for each elementary school and four for middle
and high schools. Music, art, special education and gymnasium spaces were not included in
elementary school capacity calculations consistent with the approach used in National standard
capacity models and in the Colorado State typical practice. Portable classroom spaces were only
included at Steamboat Springs Middle School where a portable building has been integrated into
the main structure. Figure 13 illustrates the capacities that were calculated for the Steamboat
Springs schools.

Western Demographics, Inc. 8 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

Figure 13 – SSSD School Program Capacities *

School Teaching Stations Desired Class Size Capacity
Soda Creek ES 23 20 460
Strawberry Park ES 24 20 480
SSMS as a Middle School 22 25 550
SSMS as a Jr. High 30 25 750
SSHS 35 25 875

SSSD Classroom Spaces Available – Using the enrollment forecasts and the capacity
calculations, various seat availability counts result from observing the low medium and high
enrollment projection bases as presented in figure 14.

Figure 14 - SSSD Enrollment Forecast - Analytics

Historical
Percentage Growth Capacity Seats Available
Enrollment
Year (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12)
2007 940 550 875 14 76 198
2008 6.7% 4.4% -2.7% 3.1% 940 550 875 -48 55 216
2009 1.0% 3.8% -2.9% 0.5% 940 550 875 -58 36 235
2010 5.9% 1.6% 2.2% 3.8% 940 550 875 -117 28 221
2011 3.3% 4.0% -1.1% 2.2% 940 550 875 -152 7 228
2012 2.1% -0.7% 2.9% 1.7% 940 550 875 -175 11 209
2013 1.3% 5.8% 5.3% 3.5% 940 550 875 -190 -20 174
2013 1.0% 4.2% 4.3% 2.7% 940 550 875 -201 -44 144

Percentage Growth Capacity Seats Available

Low Basis -
Last 5 years,
(K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12)
Hold K @
+1/yr
SY15-16 3.5% 1.7% 3.4% 3.0% 940 550 875 -241 -54 119
SY16-17 4.0% 0.4% 2.7% 2.8% 940 550 875 -287 -57 98
SY17-18 3.0% -1.5% 3.6% 2.1% 940 550 875 -324 -47 70
SY18-19 2.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 940 550 875 -361 -53 61
SY19-20 1.8% 4.4% 0.5% 2.0% 940 550 875 -384 -80 57

Percentage Growth Capacity Seats Available

Medium
(K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12)
Basis - Last 3
SY15-16 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 3.1% 940 550 875 -235 -56 115
SY16-17 4.2% 0.7% 2.9% 3.0% 940 550 875 -285 -61 93
SY17-18 4.2% -2.0% 3.9% 2.7% 940 550 875 -336 -48 62
SY18-19 4.7% -0.1% 1.6% 2.7% 940 550 875 -396 -48 49
SY19-20 4.3% 3.0% 0.6% 2.9% 940 550 875 -453 -65 44

Percentage Growth Capacity Seats Available

High Basis -
(K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) (K-5) (6-8) (9-12)
Last 1
SY15-16 3.9% 1.9% 4.4% 3.5% 940 550 875 -245 -55 112
SY16-17 6.1% -1.7% 4.1% 3.6% 940 550 875 -317 -45 81
SY17-18 6.7% -4.2% 4.8% 3.7% 940 550 875 -401 -20 43
SY18-19 7.0% -0.4% 0.8% 3.6% 940 550 875 -495 -18 36
SY19-20 6.7% 4.2% -0.1% 4.2% 940 550 875 -591 -42 37

Western Demographics, Inc. 9 December 28, 2014 Update

Steamboat Springs School District Enrollment Forecast and Demographic Observations

SSSD Facilities Needs Assessment – Based upon the seat availability analysis, the following
School levels require additional space during the next five years:

• Elementary School Needs

–384 – 591 Elementary School seats are needed during the next five years
• Middle School Needs
–50 - 80 Middle School seats are needed during the next five years and the 50 seats housed in
a portable at SSSD Middle School should be replaced – total need – 100 - 130 seats
• High School Needs
–High School facilities are adequate for the next five years

School needs are most apparent at the elementary school level where an entire new school
seems warranted by the expected growth. At the middle school level, an additional 3 – 5
classrooms are needed.

Conclusion and Potential SSSD Facility Solutions – Given the demographic and economic
conditions in the Steamboat Springs School District, it is apparent that if current admissions
practices and school reputations are maintained, elementary and middle school spaces will
continue to be crowded. A variety of solutions are possible including adding modular
classrooms, increasing class sizes, constructing new school buildings and adding on to existing
buildings.

At the elementary school level, the current trajectory of enrollment growth will result in enough
additional students to justify a new elementary school building or the conversion of an existing
facility into an elementary school. The potential for new housing construction on the west side
of town may add additional students in the future. In the event that student generation in the
existing housing stock were to decline in the future, the potential students generated by this new
housing could serve as a mechanism to keep schools full.

Several locations for a new facility would be viable. The district already owns a site on the west
side of Steamboat Springs that would easily accommodate an elementary school. The potential
to convert the old high school / administration building facility into an elementary school also
exists. Many scenarios for the conversion of this site are possible including those that preserve
the building’s historic facade. Grade configuration options include assigning each school a
kindergarten through fifth grade attendance area or breaking up the buildings into a preschool
through first building, a second and third grade building and a fourth and fifth grade facility.

At the middle school level, 3 to 5 new classrooms would address facility needs for the next five
years. The high school facility seems adequate to address grade 9 - 12 enrollment needs during
this period.

Western Demographics, Inc. 10 December 28, 2014 Update