Tarea 9 Econometria

Econometría II Lic.
Rodrigo Paniagua Tapia
ESCUELA MILITAR DE INGENIERÍA
Mcal. “Antonio José de Sucre”

BOLIVIA
CARRERA DE INGENIERÍA
COMERCIAL
TAREA 8
DOCENTE : Lic. Rodrigo Paniagua Tapia

ESTUDIANTE : Noelia Orellana Quinteros
CÓDIGO : C7517-5
FECHA : 9/10/19
PERIODO ACADÉMICO II/2019
Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

Econometría II Lic. Rodrigo Paniagua Tapia
D2CONSUMO
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
-1,000,000,000
-2,000,000,000
-3,000,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
D2PIB
2E+12
1E+12
0E+00
-1E+12
-2E+12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Mediante las graficas podemos observar las tendencias y el comportamiento de

las mismas.
En la primera grafica podemos observar que hasta 2009 la serie no pierde su
tendencia, pero después si lo hace.

VERIFICACIÓN QUE LAS VARIABLES NO SON ESTACIONARIAS
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:26

Sample: 1990 2017
Included observations: 28
Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob
1 0.876 0.876 23.863 0.000

2 0.759 -0.033 42.496 0.000
3 0.648 -0.045 56.595 0.000
4 0.539 -0.056 66.752 0.000
5 0.436 -0.043 73.689 0.000
6 0.339 -0.043 78.085 0.000
7 0.245 -0.063 80.476 0.000
8 0.158 -0.040 81.524 0.000
9 0.075 -0.057 81.774 0.000
10 -0.006 -0.070 81.775 0.000
11 -0.083 -0.063 82.115 0.000
12 -0.152 -0.051 83.323 0.000
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:27

Sample: 1990 2017
1 0.818 0.818 20.167 0.000

2 0.696 0.080 35.343 0.000
3 0.632 0.131 48.395 0.000
4 0.489 -0.233 56.525 0.000
5 0.373 -0.038 61.467 0.000
6 0.344 0.151 65.884 0.000
7 0.203 -0.282 67.502 0.000
8 0.117 0.060 68.065 0.000
9 0.088 -0.002 68.404 0.000
10 0.025 0.013 68.433 0.000
11 -0.059 -0.135 68.602 0.000
12 -0.131 -0.213 69.494 0.000
Como se puede observar en la siguiente grafica nos sale un AR(1) dado el

comportamiento de la autocorrelación ya que va descendentemente en forma
gradual.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:28

Sample: 1990 2017
1 -0.295 -0.295 2.5357 0.111

2 -0.258 -0.379 4.5625 0.102
3 0.404 0.240 9.7336 0.021
4 -0.107 0.025 10.114 0.039
5 -0.241 -0.127 12.125 0.033
6 0.303 0.100 15.462 0.017
7 -0.003 0.075 15.462 0.031
8 -0.190 0.014 16.927 0.031
9 0.051 -0.145 17.040 0.048
10 -0.005 -0.140 17.041 0.073
11 -0.039 0.029 17.114 0.105
12 0.093 0.117 17.560 0.130
Como se puede observar para la primera variable se aplicó una diferenciación lo

cual nos permitió tener un ruido blanco, por lo tanto, es estacionario.
Null Hypothes is : D(CONSUMO,2) has a unit root

Exogenous : Cons tant
Lag Length: 1 (Autom atic - bas ed on SIC, m axlag=6)
t-Statis tic Prob.*
Augm ented Dickey-Fuller tes t s tatis tic -5.912262 0.0001

Tes t critical values : 1% level -3.737853
5% level -2.991878
10% level -2.635542
*MacKinnon (1996) one-s ided p-values .
Augm ented Dickey-Fuller Tes t Equation

Dependent Variable: D(CONSUMO,3)
Method: Leas t Squares
Date: 10/09/19 Tim e: 13:12
Sam ple (adjus ted): 1994 2017
Included obs ervations : 24 after adjus tm ents
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statis tic Prob.
D(CONSUMO(-1),2) -2.060643 0.348537 -5.912262 0.0000

D(CONSUMO(-1),3) 0.515864 0.209279 2.464957 0.0224
C 9.26E+08 2.53E+08 3.654648 0.0015
R-s quared 0.728309 Mean dependent var 77481112

Adjus ted R-s quared 0.702434 S.D. dependent var 1.92E+09
S.E. of regres s ion 1.05E+09 Akaike info criterion 44.49666
Sum s quared res id 2.31E+19 Schwarz criterion 44.64392
Log likelihood -530.9599 Hannan-Quinn criter. 44.53573
F-s tatis tic 28.14683 Durbin-Wats on s tat 1.695272
Prob(F-s tatis tic) 0.000001
Como podemos ver en nuestra regresión es significativa ya que la probabilidad

es menor al 5%, fuera de eso vemos que ya no tiene raíz unitaria al 99%, las

probabilidades de la constante nos salen signignificativas y el r cuadrado es

mayor al 70% por lo tanto es significativa.
Null Hypothes is : D(PIB,2) has a unit root

Exogenous : Cons tant
Lag Length: 1 (Autom atic - bas ed on SIC, m axlag=6)
t-Statis tic Prob.*
Augm ented Dickey-Fuller tes t s tatis tic -5.911230 0.0001

Tes t critical values : 1% level -3.737853
5% level -2.991878
10% level -2.635542
*MacKinnon (1996) one-s ided p-values .
Augm ented Dickey-Fuller Tes t Equation

Dependent Variable: D(PIB,3)
Method: Leas t Squares
Date: 10/09/19 Tim e: 13:12
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statis tic Prob.
D(PIB(-1),2) -2.193716 0.371110 -5.911230 0.0000

D(PIB(-1),3) 0.371319 0.206252 1.800318 0.0862
C 5.31E+11 1.55E+11 3.421274 0.0026
R-s quared 0.822355 Mean dependent var 1.49E+10

Adjus ted R-s quared 0.805436 S.D. dependent var 1.47E+12
S.E. of regres s ion 6.50E+11 Akaike info criterion 57.35563
Sum s quared res id 8.88E+24 Schwarz criterion 57.50288
F-s tatis tic 48.60649 Durbin-Wats on s tat 2.044602
Prob(F-s tatis tic) 0.000000
Como podemos ver en nuestra regresión es significativa ya que la probabilidad

es menor al 5%, fuera de eso vemos que ya no tiene raíz unitaria al 99%, las
probabilidades de la constante nos salen que son significativas signignificativas
y el r cuadrado es mayor al 80% por lo tanto es significativa.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:13

Sample: 1990 2017
Series: PIB CONSUMO
Lags interval: 1 to 1
Selected (0.05 level*) Number of Cointegrating Relations by Model
Data Trend: None None Linear Linear Quadratic

Test Type No Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept
No Trend No Trend No Trend Trend Trend
Trace 2 1 1 2 1
Max-Eig 2 0 1 2 1
*Critical values based on MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999)
Information Criteria by Rank and Model
Data Trend: None None Linear Linear Quadratic

Rank or No Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept Intercept
No. of CEs No Trend No Trend No Trend Trend Trend
Log Likelihood by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)

0 -1312.677 -1312.677 -1309.632 -1309.632 -1301.580
1 -1306.298 -1304.849 -1301.813 -1299.642 -1292.955
2 -1302.958 -1301.014 -1301.014 -1291.937 -1291.937
Akaike Information Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)

0 101.2829 101.2829 101.2024 101.2024 100.7370
1 101.0998 101.0653 100.9087 100.8186 100.3812*
2 101.1506 101.1549 101.1549 100.6106 100.6106
Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)

0 101.4764 101.4764 101.4928 101.4928 101.1241
1 101.4869 101.5008 101.3926 101.3509 100.9618*
2 101.7313 101.8324 101.8324 101.3848 101.3848
Como se puede observar nuestro modelo es estacionario, tomando el siguiente

criterio asintótico de akike, vemos que el asterisco está en la columna 5 y fila 2.

ESTIMACIÓN DEL MODELO VAR CON UN REZAGO
Vector Autoregres s ion Es tim ates

Date: 10/09/19 Tim e: 13:18
Standard errors in ( ) & t-s tatis tics in [ ]
PIB CONSUMO
PIB(-1) 1.300764 0.000463

(0.13231) (0.00019)
[ 9.83123] [ 2.44794]
CONSUMO(-1) -130.2023 0.819328

(76.9739) (0.11014)
[-1.69151] [ 7.43892]
C -3.82E+12 -6.52E+09
(1.7E+12) (2.4E+09)
[-2.25628] [-2.69533]
R-s quared 0.999396 0.999590

Adj. R-s quared 0.999346 0.999556
Sum s q. res ids 9.28E+24 1.90E+19
S.E. equation 6.22E+11 8.90E+08
F-s tatis tic 19859.15 29277.98
Log likelihood -769.9368 -593.1013
Akaike AIC 57.25457 44.15565
Schwarz SC 57.39856 44.29963
Mean dependent 5.37E+13 7.08E+10
S.D. dependent 2.43E+13 4.22E+10
Determ inant res id covariance (dof adj.) 1.31E+41

Determ inant res id covariance 1.04E+41
Log likelihood -1351.578
Akaike inform ation criterion 100.5613
Schwarz criterion 100.8493
Num ber of coefficients 6

Segunda Parte
Grafica de la variable de exportaciones
exportaciones
10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
1. Pronostico usando una tendencia de una serie
Dependent Variable: EXPORTACIONES

Method: Least Squares
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:22
Sample: 1990 2017
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -9.70E+08 3.81E+08 -2.544846 0.0172

@TREND 3.53E+08 24230600 14.56629 0.0000
R-squared 0.890837 Mean dependent var 3.79E+09

Adjusted R-squared 0.886639 S.D. dependent var 3.08E+09
S.E. of regression 1.04E+09 Akaike info criterion 44.42331
Sum squared resid 2.79E+19 Schwarz criterion 44.51847
F-statistic 212.1767 Durbin-Watson stat 0.229241
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Realizando un análisis al 95% de confianza, la primera variable es significativa,

con un R-SCQUIRED de 89% donde el grado de explicación es independiente
respecto a la variable dependiente, el modelo presenta autocorrelación residual
y finalmente el modelo si es significativo.

10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
3,000,000,000 2,000,000,000
2,000,000,000 0
-2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
-1,000,000,000
-2,000,000,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Residual Actual Fitted
1.2E+10
Forecast: EXPO1
1.0E+10
Actual: EXPORTACIONES
8.0E+09 Forecast sample: 1990 2017
6.0E+09
Root Mean Squared Error 9.98E+08
4.0E+09 Mean Absolute Error 8.53E+08
Mean Abs. Percent Error 52.29545
2.0E+09
Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.103998
0.0E+00 Bias Proportion 0.000000
Variance Proportion 0.028890
-2.0E+09
Covariance Proportion 0.971110
-4.0E+09 Theil U2 Coefficient 4.141318
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Symmetric MAPE 50.26917
EXPO1 ± 2 S.E.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:25
Sample: 1990 2017
C 3.57E+08 4.19E+08 0.852377 0.4021

@TREND 46742168 71782954 0.651160 0.5209
@TREND^2 11341025 2568596. 4.415262 0.0002


Realizando un análisis al 95% de confianza, la primera variable es significativa,

con un R-SCQUIRED de 89% donde el grado de explicación es independiente
respecto a la variable dependiente, el modelo presenta autocorrelación residual
y finalmente el modelo si es significativo.
En este caso la primera tendencia no es significativa pero la segunda tendencia
si es sigmificativa
10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
0
0
-1,000,000,000
-2,000,000,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

1.2E+10
Forecast: EXPO2
1.0E+10 Actual: EXPORTACIONES
Forecast sample: 1990 2017
8.0E+09
6.0E+09
Mean Absolute Error 5.58E+08
4.0E+09 Mean Abs. Percent Error 17.71528
2.0E+09
Bias Proportion 0.000000
0.0E+00
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Symmetric MAPE 17.82217
EXPO2 ± 2 S.E.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:26
Sample: 1990 2017
C 1.21E+09 4.53E+08 2.677716 0.0132

@TREND -3.73E+08 1.48E+08 -2.517195 0.0189
@TREND^2 50901557 12881981 3.951376 0.0006
@TREND^3 -976803.3 313350.3 -3.117288 0.0047


10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
0
500,000,000
-500,000,000
-1,000,000,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

1.2E+10
Forecast: EXP3
8.0E+09
6.0E+09
4.0E+09 Mean Abs. Percent Error 24.75935
2.0E+09
0.0E+00
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Symmetric MAPE 24.71427
EXP3 ± 2 S.E.


Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:27
Sample: 1990 2017
C 1.01E+08 2.91E+08 0.345703 0.7327

@TREND 6.13E+08 1.55E+08 3.953168 0.0006
@TREND^2 -1.21E+08 24007783 -5.019692 0.0000
@TREND^3 9014592. 1347801. 6.688370 0.0000
@TREND^4 -185025.8 24753.17 -7.474833 0.0000

10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
2,000,000,000
800,000,000
0
400,000,000
-400,000,000
-800,000,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

10,000,000,000
Forecast: EXPO4
8,000,000,000 Actual: EXPORTACIONES
Forecast sam ple: 1990 2017
6,000,000,000 Included observations: 28
4,000,000,000 Mean Abs olute Error 2.69E+08
Mean Abs . Percent Error 13.54390
2,000,000,000 Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.035179
0 Variance Proportion 0.003203
-2,000,000,000 Theil U2 Coefficient 1.180711
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sym m etric MAPE 14.72754
EXPO4 ± 2 S.E.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:30
Sample: 1990 2017
C 4.07E+08 2.91E+08 1.397668 0.1761

@TREND 1.59E+08 2.32E+08 0.683569 0.5014
@TREND^2 6007296. 55752930 0.107749 0.9152
@TREND^3 -3800147. 5341617. -0.711423 0.4843
@TREND^4 353352.7 219628.9 1.608863 0.1219
@TREND^5 -7975.979 3236.785 -2.464167 0.0220


10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
4,000,000,000
800,000,000
2,000,000,000
400,000,000
0
0
-400,000,000
-800,000,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

10,000,000,000
Forecast: EXPO5
8,000,000,000 Actual: EXPORTACIONES
Forecast sam ple: 1990 2017
6,000,000,000 Included observations: 28
4,000,000,000 Mean Abs olute Error 2.10E+08
Mean Abs . Percent Error 7.451232
2,000,000,000 Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.031134
0 Variance Proportion 0.002507
-2,000,000,000 Theil U2 Coefficient 0.601448
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Sym m etric MAPE 7.453320
EXPO5 ± 2 S.E.

Segundo pronostico
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:33

Sample: 1990 2017
Method: Single Exponential
Original Series: EXPORTACIONES
Forecast Series: EXPORTSM1
Parameters: Alpha 0.9990

Sum of Squared Residuals 8.84E+18
End of Period Levels: Mean 8.07E+09
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:34

Sample: 1990 2017
Method: Double Exponential


Trend -1.17E+08
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:35

Sample: 1990 2017
Method: Holt-Winters No Seasonal

Beta 0.3400

Trend -3466225.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:36

Sample: 1990 2017
Method: Holt-Winters Additive Seasonal

Beta 0.4000
Gamma 0.0000

Trend -1.15E+08
Seasonals: 2013 35321886
2014 -1.75E+08
2015 -6508631.
2016 15868608
2017 1.31E+08
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:37

Sample: 1990 2017
Method: Holt-Winters Multiplicative Seasonal

Beta 0.1000
Gamma 0.0800

Trend 3.82E+08
Seasonals: 2013 0.833870
2014 0.762101
2015 0.901698
2016 1.577674
2017 0.924656

EXPORTACIONE
S EXPORTSM1 EXPORTSM2 EXPORTSM3 EXPORTSM4 EXPORTSM5
-
537502326.25621 1234515480.4821 410797365.37076 537502326.25621 84564136.216632 35138909.520950
1990 68 3 18 68 03 48
-
508648122.30844 538199339.41044 708827119.98355 690168822.36192 1118181771.4878 126779302.27882
1991 14 26 98 34 02 44
572500378.72667 508677673.52554 622813204.65246 599604841.22396 1041062588.9592 518611518.85420
1992 9 34 15 62 25 95
765667178.25471 572436556.02147 647941216.24664 654242664.57162 710918196.72375 941895519.57749
1993 17 78 26 61 86 22
929865123.95539 765473947.63247 877264628.52372 885289341.77136 772497015.27852 1239444983.7477
1994 6 84 24 05 86 22
-
1265179986.7666 929700732.77907 1072336210.4169 1064641270.3833 1367251668.1828 581572721.83628
1995 9 31 03 3 06 05
1295157202.0048 1264844507.5127 1481052184.4212 1468131275.2163 1536448506.6068 612271420.16160
1996 39 02 97 1 42 44
1246175397.8982 1295126889.3103 1465840718.5325 1439304224.5254 1578680997.1314 679917963.17516
1997 97 47 04 87 64 01
1230116921.7200 1246224349.3897 1320023740.4636 1324666344.5187 1202564108.4485 1036344676.4977
1998 92 09 13 65 6 36
1291885319.5617 1230133029.1477 1249258657.2421 1276464846.5659 1056227697.5843 1261141392.6876
1999 22 62 78 24 67 74
1445821022.2655 1291823567.2713 1316592893.1516 1343475588.4072 1570291709.6334 1361919067.0298
2000 06 08 68 05 65 32
1878651440.6414 1445667024.8105 1520490565.8040 1532204644.8054 1556824852.5037 3067186603.1328
2001 25 11 92 57 45 57
2019020391.3208 1878218456.2255 2092956427.8143 2082813115.8937 2170397207.4907 1589876300.1471
2002 47 94 59 72 21 43
2297025915.0689 2018879589.3857 2244900013.4627 2201495091.9273 2077743685.7605 1732907621.5984
2003 66 52 77 83 32 29
2674833271.7361 2296747768.7432 2533491614.8283 2511977274.3107 2296048770.2283 1948976333.0132
2004 09 82 24 13 59 32
3124777521.3116 2674455186.2331 2966522008.6277 2945149155.8625 3182793854.9785 2931145542.6592
2005 93 17 16 95 64 94
3434320449.3170 3124327198.9766 3487008600.8230 3456159864.5562 3495421720.3484 6041623902.1422
2006 38 14 37 54 34 89
4331708455.8633 3434010456.0666 3794619328.2456 3758278264.9568 3874718560.2492 3031407978.4117
2007 06 97 3 74 01 3
5438641595.5969 4330810757.8635 4875526396.3827 4850609599.2036 4696001006.3720 3317672795.2225
2008 94 1 61 94 84 01
5291151823.3732 5437533764.7592 6237053819.1691 6157450096.4312 5943862365.6775 3940950674.6022
2009 87 6 38 49 79 16
6277203237.5604 5291298205.3146 5815730957.7636 5715453563.2987 6030443130.0673 5647100538.1120
2010 64 74 54 57 64 3
7497823405.0329 6276217332.5282 6864916234.2393 6892477396.7479 6899019842.4683 11215273364.173
2011 22 18 95 44 54 87
8870644645.2817 7496601798.9604 8356758599.3402 8318890993.1969 8410008832.7297 6010094745.9906
2012 28 16 94 62 44 32
8684876050.8396 8869270602.4354 9976904826.2247 9879286405.0085 9754013922.0497 6630417234.4419
2013 64 08 17 07 47 87
9028242341.0628 8685060445.3912 9390301806.2851 9287466066.5632 9162294739.4844 7046172723.1200
2014 42 61 02 02 74 09
8104067362.4617 9027899159.1671 9470590609.0400 9542706659.0652 9769548808.8931 9706843223.2613
2015 17 7 13 77 3 31
8138039818.9598 8104991194.2584 8027403885.6872 8129451865.1908 8186728740.7946 17049952942.066
2016 38 22 26 05 78 99
8072890863.8218 8138006770.3351 7956862733.7941 8166343882.4522 8181692978.4806 8801005301.3339
2017 98 38 55 48 3 22
8072955979.7284 7944169028.4117 8069424639.1007 7870445261.1222 8058547185.4900
2018 11 12 33 66 29
8072955979.7284 7827627722.8758 8065958414.3795 7545058691.5762 7656185120.0504
2019 11 93 68 51 54
8072955979.7284 7711086417.3400 8062492189.6584 7598873648.7965 9403158759.2129
2020 11 66 03 06 9

8072955979.7284 7594545111.8042 8059025964.9372 7506380340.6375 17055276490.798

2021 11 3 38 25 27
8072955979.7284 7478003806.2684 8055559740.2160 7506153457.4069 10349232712.001
2022 11 18 74 66 96
Pronostico 3

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:50
Sample (adjusted): 1990 2017
Included observations: 28 after adjustments
C -1.13E+09 5.18E+08 -2.170618 0.0397

IMPORTACIONES 0.639945 0.036897 17.34412 0.0000
TIPO_DE_CAMBIO 5.20E+09 2.19E+09 2.378826 0.0253


10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
500,000,000
0 0
-500,000,000
-1,000,000,000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
1.2E+10
Forecast: EXPO6
8.0E+09
Adjusted sample: 1990 2017
6.0E+09
2.0E+09
0.0E+00
-2.0E+09 Covariance Proportion 0.991092
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 Theil U2 Coefficient 1.657828
Symmetric MAPE 16.27907
EXPO6 ± 2 S.E.


Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:53
C -1.01E+09 6.15E+08 -1.648530 0.1123

IMPORTACIONES(-1) 0.619833 0.044123 14.04791 0.0000
TIPO_DE_CAMBIO(-1) 5.94E+09 2.59E+09 2.293576 0.0309

10,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
0 0
-1,000,000,000
-2,000,000,000
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

1.2E+10
Forecast: EXPO7
8.0E+09
Adjusted sample: 1991 2018
6.0E+09
2.0E+09
0.0E+00
-2.0E+09 Covariance Proportion 0.987346
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Theil U2 Coefficient 2.073871
Symmetric MAPE 20.77733
EXPO7 ± 2 S.E.

Cuarto pronostico
Automatic ARIMA Forecasting

Selected dependent variable: D(EXPORTACIONES)
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 16:57
Sample: 1990 2017
Forecast length: 5
Number of estimated ARMA models: 225

Number of non-converged estimations: 0
Selected ARMA model: (1,2)(0,0)
AIC value: 42.8742175404

VARIABLE IMPORTACIONES
Dependent Variable: IMPORTACIONES
Date: 10/09/19 Time: 15:32
@TREND 1.67E+08 92621554 1.800460 0.0834

@TREND^2 11958947 4349820. 2.749297 0.0107

Durbin-Watson stat 0.328813

2.5E+10
Forecast: IMPORTACIONES2
2.0E+10 Actual: IMPORTACIONES
1.5E+10 Included observations: 33
5.0E+09 Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.138348
0.0E+00 Variance Proportion 0.012034
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Symmetric MAPE 48.56840
IMPORTACIONES2 ± 2 S.E.

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 15:34
@TREND -1.44E+08 2.26E+08 -0.634892 0.5313

@TREND^2 49640455 25549041 1.942948 0.0634
@TREND^3 -1028584. 687690.3 -1.495708 0.1472

2.5E+10
2.0E+10 Actual: IMPORTACIONES
1.5E+10 Included observations: 33
5.0E+09 Theil Inequality Coefficient 0.132333
0.0E+00 Variance Proportion 0.000188
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Symmetric MAPE 64.38827


Date: 10/09/19 Time: 15:36
@TREND 1.66E+09 1.85E+08 8.951962 0.0000

@TREND^2 -3.44E+08 36593381 -9.405459 0.0000
@TREND^3 24076634 2253583. 10.68371 0.0000
@TREND^4 -487692.6 43437.08 -11.22756 0.0000

2E+10
Actual: IMPORTACIONES
1E+10
0E+00 Root Mean Squared Error 7.11E+08
-1E+10
-2E+10 Variance Proportion 0.000012
-3E+10 Theil U2 Coefficient 0.870461
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Symmetric MAPE 18.83602

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 15:38
@TREND 1.24E+09 3.15E+08 3.949442 0.0006

@TREND^2 -2.03E+08 94835632 -2.138189 0.0434
@TREND^3 8607579. 9867536. 0.872313 0.3921
@TREND^4 189161.5 423158.8 0.447022 0.6590
@TREND^5 -10282.30 6396.485 -1.607492 0.1216


2E+10
1E+10 Actual: IMPORTACIONES
0E+00
-1E+10
-2E+10 Mean Abs. Percent Error 11.87674
-3E+10 Bias Proportion 0.010420
-4E+10
-5E+10 Theil U2 Coefficient 0.676904
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Symmetric MAPE 15.70109
pronost
IMPORTACIONES IMPORTACIO1 IMPORTACI... IMPORTACI... IMPORTACI... IMPORTACI...
1990 1595096585 0 0 0 0 0
1991 1667354148 413333109.... 178720315.... -95191081.... 1337250881... 1048422169...
1992 1810820733 826666218.... 381358525.... -97272755.... 2123778787... 1745276683...
1993 2031247995 1239999327... 607914628.... -12416524.... 2486486588... 2147476486...
1994 1967855560 1653332436... 858388625.... 153206110.... 2540572532... 2314006646...
1995 2181321407 2066665545... 1132780516... 393423646.... 2389530247... 2304690480...
1996 2075112673 2479998654... 1431090300... 702064579.... 2125148733... 2178955677...
1997 1973944758 2893331763... 1753317978... 1072957409... 1827512369... 1994600423...
1998 1952293778 3306664872... 2099463549... 1499930632... 1565000911... 1806559526...
1999 1887627985 3719997981... 2469527014... 1976812745... 1394289491... 1665670539...
2000 1761854171 4133331091... 2863508373... 2497432247... 1360348619... 1617439885...
2001 1926994064 4546664200... 3281407626... 3055617635... 1496444180... 1700808983...
2002 1868591542 4959997309... 3723224772... 3645197406... 1824137438... 1946920369...
2003 2336989595 5373330418... 4188959811... 4260000058... 2353285031... 2377883823...
2004 2927990514 5786663527... 4678612745... 4893854088... 3082038976... 3005542492...
2005 3675376182 6199996636... 5192183572... 5540587995... 3996846666... 3830239018...
2006 4541767354 6613329745... 5729672293... 6194030275... 5072450872... 4839581655...
2007 6165940957 7026662854... 6291078907... 6848009426... 6271889738... 6007210400...
2008 8259952207 7439995963... 6876403415... 7496353946... 7546496790... 7291563117...
2009 7368748907 7853329073... 7485645817... 8132892332... 8835900927... 8634641656...
2010 8974526067 8266662182... 8118806112... 8751453082... 100680264... 9960777983...
2011 11967748602 8679995291... 8775884301... 9345864693... 111590929... 111754003...
2012 12687185276 9093328400... 9456880383... 9909955663... 120136155... 121637991...
2013 13529848055 9506661509... 101617943... 104375544... 125244045... 127898936...
2014 13633798318 9919994618... 108906262... 109224896... 125725657... 128949974...
2015 11206350524 103333277... 116433759... 113585897... 120275004... 122965848...
2016 9492152371 107466608... 124200436... 117396830... 107469050... 107870572...
2017 9117114283 111599939... 132206292... 120595983... 8576771439... 8132508848...
2018 115733270... 140451326... 123121638... 5351387016... 4071492963...
2019 119866601... 148935539... 124912082... 893334403.... -168621179...
2020 123999932... 157658932... 125905600... -498650835... -946083547...
2021 128133263... 166621503... 126040476... -124889678... -196038506...
2022 132266594... 175823253... 125254995... -218265752... -324992062...

Tarea 9 Econometria

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Econometría II Lic.

Rodrigo Paniagua Tapia

ESCUELA MILITAR DE INGENIERÍA

Mcal. “Antonio José de Sucre”

DOCENTE : Lic. Rodrigo Paniagua Tapia

PERIODO ACADÉMICO II/2019

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

Mediante las graficas podemos observar las tendencias y el comportamiento de

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

VERIFICACIÓN QUE LAS VARIABLES NO SON ESTACIONARIAS

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:26

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob

1 0.876 0.876 23.863 0.000

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:27

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob

1 0.818 0.818 20.167 0.000

Como se puede observar en la siguiente grafica nos sale un AR(1) dado el

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:28

Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob

1 -0.295 -0.295 2.5357 0.111

Como se puede observar para la primera variable se aplicó una diferenciación lo

Null Hypothes is : D(CONSUMO,2) has a unit root

t-Statis tic Prob.*

Augm ented Dickey-Fuller tes t s tatis tic -5.912262 0.0001

*MacKinnon (1996) one-s ided p-values .

Augm ented Dickey-Fuller Tes t Equation

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statis tic Prob.

D(CONSUMO(-1),2) -2.060643 0.348537 -5.912262 0.0000

R-s quared 0.728309 Mean dependent var 77481112

Como podemos ver en nuestra regresión es significativa ya que la probabilidad

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

probabilidades de la constante nos salen signignificativas y el r cuadrado es

Null Hypothes is : D(PIB,2) has a unit root

t-Statis tic Prob.*

Augm ented Dickey-Fuller tes t s tatis tic -5.911230 0.0001

*MacKinnon (1996) one-s ided p-values .

Augm ented Dickey-Fuller Tes t Equation

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statis tic Prob.

D(PIB(-1),2) -2.193716 0.371110 -5.911230 0.0000

R-s quared 0.822355 Mean dependent var 1.49E+10

Como podemos ver en nuestra regresión es significativa ya que la probabilidad

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

Date: 10/09/19 Time: 13:13

Selected (0.05 level*) Number of Cointegrating Relations by Model

Data Trend: None None Linear Linear Quadratic

*Critical values based on MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999)

Information Criteria by Rank and Model

Data Trend: None None Linear Linear Quadratic

Log Likelihood by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)

Akaike Information Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)

Schwarz Criteria by Rank (rows) and Model (columns)

Como se puede observar nuestro modelo es estacionario, tomando el siguiente

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

ESTIMACIÓN DEL MODELO VAR CON UN REZAGO

Vector Autoregres s ion Es tim ates

PIB(-1) 1.300764 0.000463

CONSUMO(-1) -130.2023 0.819328

R-s quared 0.999396 0.999590

Determ inant res id covariance (dof adj.) 1.31E+41

Noelia Orellana Quinteros C7517-5

1. Pronostico usando una tendencia de una serie

Dependent Variable: EXPORTACIONES