Transpn Res.-D, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp.

249±258, 1998
# 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Pergamon Printed in Great Britain
1361-9209/98 $19.00+0.00

PII: S1361-9209(98)00004-2

ESTIMATING THE COST OF AIR POLLUTION FROM ROAD

TRANSPORT IN ITALY

ROMEO DANIELIS* and ALINE CHIABAI

Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, UniversitaÁ degli Studi di Trieste, P.le Europa 1, 34127 Trieste, Italy

(Received 28 July 1997; in revised form 24 February 1998)

AbstractÐIn this paper we provide an estimate of air pollution costs in Italy. Speci®cally we are concerned
with the cost of increased premature mortality from exposure to total suspended particulates (TSP). First we
estimate the number of people who would die if exposed to a given annual TSP concentration level. Then the
total number of deaths is multiplied by the statistical value of life to obtain the overall monetary cost. Next,
using the CORINAIR emission estimates, we calculate the cost of PM10 emissions (a component of TSP) in
urban areas according to the size of the city, the vehicle type and per vehicle-km. # 1998 Elsevier Science
Ltd. All rights reserved

Keywords: Air pollution, monetary evaluation, particulate matter, road transport

1. INTRODUCTION

It is widely held that transport activities should bear the full marginal cost they impose on society.
A component of which is the cost of air pollution externalities such as the cost of increased mor-
bidity or premature mortality due to exposure to transport-related air pollutants. The estimation
of air pollution costs is not an easy task. Some estimates have been provided on their absolute
value as a percentage of GNP (Verhoef, 1994; Babusiaux et al., 1995) in per capita levels (Krup-
nick et al., 1996) or per passenger-km (Kageson, 1993). But there are very few reliable estimates on
air pollution costs by location, vehicle-type or vehicle-km. We are aware only of the work done by
Small and Kazimi (1995), Eyre et al. (1997), Peirson et al. (1995), Maddison et al. (1996), and
Mayeres et al. (1996).
The aim of this paper is to estimate air pollution costs in Italy. Speci®cally we are concerned
with the cost of increased premature mortality from exposure to total suspended particulates
(TSP). TSP are air-borne particles (aerosols) of various dimensions (from hundreds of microns up
to tens of micros) and weight. They are composed of several metals some of which (lead and bro-
mine) are largely attributable to transport activities. In order to restrict the scope of this paper the
cost of increased morbidity is not considered. The selection of TSP instead of other pollutants such
as CO, NOx, SOx or VOC is due to the strong scienti®c evidence of its relationship to mortality
(Krupnick et al., 1996; Pavan, 1996), to its dominant contribution to air pollution costs (Mayeres
et al., 1996, p. 120) and to the availability of data. It would have been better to have chosen to use
PM10, which is the particulate matter with a diameter of less than 10 microns, since the epide-
miological literature has shown that the ®ner the particles are the more dangerous they are for
human health.
TSP derives mostly from engine combustion but also from road dust caused by vehicle use.
Using the CORINAIR1 estimates (ENEA, 1990) we then calculated the cost of emitting PM10 in
urban areas2 of di€erent sizes as per vehicle-type and vehicle-km.
We are not aware of any studies which attempt to estimate the monetary cost of air pollution in
Italy. We are only aware of recent air pollution related mortality studies for Rome and Milan.

*Author for correspondence.

1
CORINAIR (Co-ordination Information on Air Pollution) is a European Community Programme aiming at harmonizing
air pollution statistical methodology across member states.
2
The reason of this change in pollutant-measure is explained in Subsection 4.2.

249
250 R. Danielis and A. Chiabai

Therefore we feel that placing an economic value on air pollution and estimating di€erent vehicles'
responsibility would provide useful input to the debate on how to tackle the very serious pollution
problem that many Italian cities face.
Section 2 brie¯y introduces the methodology. Section 3 illustrates the estimation of particulate
mortality levels. Section 4 develops the monetary evaluation of PM10 emission-related costs. Sec-
tion 5 draws some conclusions and illustrates the research programme.

2. METHODOLOGY

There are several methods for calculating the cost of air pollution. A widely used method is the
direct estimation of damages (Small, 1977; Krupnick and Portney, 1991; Hall et al., 1992; Small
and Kazimi, 1995; Maddison et al., 1996). Others methods are the hedonic price method in which
observed price di€erentials are related to air quality, the contingent valuation method in which
a€ected residents are asked to state their willingness to pay to reduce pollution and the averting
costs method in which pollution costs are inferred from the cost of abating emissions. The main
di€erence between the direct estimation method and the other methods is that the latter is based
on revealed or stated individuals' preferences. In the case of air pollution, because of insucient
individuals' knowledge on its e€ects, the preference based methods are seen as less reliable and
therefore the direct estimation method is most often applied.
The direct estimation method involves tracing the links between air emissions and its adverse
consequences and placing economic values on them. These links are quite numerous and complex
to predict. As Small and Kazimi (1995, p. 14) state:

``A pollutant emitted into the atmosphere changes the spatial and temporal patterns of ambient concentrations of that pol-
lutant and perhaps others. These patterns are determined by atmospheric conditions, topographical features and the presence
of other natural or man-made chemicals in the air. The resulting ambient concentration then interact with people, buildings,
plants and animals in a way that depends on their locations and activity levels. The results may be physical and/or psycho-
logical e€ects: coughing, erosion of stone, retarded plant growth, injury to young, loss of pleasurable views, and so forth.
Finally, these e€ects have an economic value.''

Focusing on human mortality and TSP pollution we have simpli®ed such a complex chain of
interactions by using the two-step methodology illustrated in Fig. 1.
First we estimate the number of people which would die if exposed to a given annual TSP con-
centration level. In order to do this we need to identify a dose±response relationship, the ambient
concentration levels and the number of people exposed to them. In the second step we estimate
total mortality cost through a statistical value of life and then relate the total monetary cost due to
TSP exposure to PM10 emissions by urban transport vehicles so as to derive the cost by city size,
by ton of urban emission, by vehicle type and per vehicle-km.

3. MEASURING TSP MORTALITY LEVELS

Ideally in order to apply the method of the direct estimation of damages one should start by
modelling TSP emissions from transport3 and by estimating ambient concentration levels at the
various places where people live and work. Such estimations are usually performed using speci®c
emission-concentration models which evaluate emission levels based on trac patterns, ¯eet
composition and ambient concentrationsÐtaking into account geographic and climatic
characteristics of the site. Whereas we rely on the ambient concentration levels as measured at
monitoring stations. This has an advantage in that they are `real' rather than estimated values4 but
two main disadvantagesÐthey usually cover insuciently the area under study and they also
register emissions derived from non-transport activities.

3
One should consider the entire life-cycle emissions, that are produced during fuel extraction, re®nement and delivery, and
the vehicle manufacturing, usage and scrapping. On the contray, very often only the emissions derived from the fuel
combustion to move the vehicle are taken into account. According to Lewis (1996) these account for 16% for petrol cars
and for 79% for diesel cars of the total emissions.
4
According to Braga Marcazzan (1990) di€usion models are of very limited reliability particulary for TSP because of the
very nature of particulate matter, since it contains particles of various dimensions and weights which is very dicult to
model.
 Estimating the cost of air pollution from road transport in Italy 251

Fig. 1. Graphical illustration of the methodology.

Unfortunately for the purposes of estimating TSP pollution costs for the entire nation the ®rst
disadvantage is rather limiting. The TSP ambient concentration database is scarce in that we have
ocial data from the Environmental Statistics (ISTAT, 1996) for only 49 monitoring stations
located in 19 towns.5 This is because legislation requiring regions to monitor air pollution is fairly
recent and they have been slow to comply with it and also because many operating stations have
not been working properly for a long enough period. The requirement is a minimum of 275 days
of operation.
The second disadvantage is less restricting since monitoring stations in residential areas are
located in densely populated zones with high levels of trac6 and since we know that most TSP
emissions are due to transport. It is important though to quantify the speci®c transport contribu-
tion in urban areas. According to Pireddu (1995) in Italy 63.8% of the national TSP emissions is
due to transport and only 13.3% to residential heating. The rest is due to power generating sta-
tions, industrial activities and farming. Assuming that urban TSP emission only comes from
transport and residential heating we can state that transport is responsible for 82.7% of the urban
TSP emissions.
Another shortcoming in the data reported in Table 1 is that they are not uniformly distributed
among the Italian regions but are mostly relative the northern and central regions.
The TSP concentration levels in column 4 (which we have called Cij ) are the arithmetic mean of
the mean value registered each day of the year and refer to the period between April 1993 and
March 1994.7 The ®gures are in micrograms per metric cube. We grouped the cities by city size and

5
The Environmental Statistics also report data from other monitoring stations belonging to the ENEL (Electric Utilities)
network. We did not include those in our sample since they are speci®cally positioned to monitor the TSP from elec-
tricity generating power stations.
6
Legislation would require four types of locations for monitoring stations in residential areas: in highly populated areas, in
sites with a lot of trac, in the outskirts and in areas not a€ected by urban emissions (to register the baseline emissions).
Unfortunately so far this prescription has been seldom complied with.
7
Where there were more than one monitoring station in a city and therefore more than one TSP concentration level we
reported the average value.
252 R. Danielis and A. Chiabai

Table 1. TSP concentration levels in 19 Italian cities in 1993±1994

City size Cities Population TSP concentration Average TSP

(in no. of inhabitants) level (g/m3) concentration
level (g/m3)

20,000±100,000 Merano 33,504 34 44.4

Bolzano 98,158 35.6
Pisaa 98,928 57
100,000±500,000 Trento 101,545 45.3 67.8
Bergamo 114,936 57
Ravenna 135,844 35
Ferrara 138,015 44.5
Parma 170,520 51
Modena 176,990 108
Brescia 194,502 60
Padova 215,137 117
ForlõÁ 109,541 59
Piacenza 102,268 56
Beyond 500,000 Firenze* 403,294 48.2 83.6
Bologna 404,378 97.7
Torino 962,507 115.3
Milano 1,369,231 77.7
Roma 2,775,250 78.5

a
Figure referring to the April 1994±March 1995 period. Source: ISTAT (1991, 1995, 1996).

calculated the weighted average TSP concentration levels for each size MCi , using as weights the
population size Pij recorded in the 1991 population census:

P
k
Pij Cij
jˆ1
MCi ˆ j ˆ 1; . . . ; k and i ˆ 1; 2; 3
P
k
Pij
jˆ1

Cij is the annual mean TSP concentration level for city j in the city size group i, while MCi is the
weighted average (annual mean) TSP concentration level for group i. We take MCi as estimates of
the TSP concentration levels for the entire group i.
Though it is unwise to make comparisons among cities with such a limited sample of cities and
of monitoring stations it appears from the last column of Table 1 that on average TSP con-
centration levels grow with city size. Note that we do not have information on TSP concentration
in towns with a population of fewer than 20,000. Therefore we will estimate the mortality levels
and costs not for the entire nation but only for urban areas of more than 20,000 people which
account for 53.9% of the Italian population.

3.1. The dose±response relationship

Given that we have an estimate of the TSP concentration levels we need to estimate how many
people would die if exposed to those levels. This requires identifying the dose-response relationship
between TSP concentration levels and mortality.8 Research on the subject has clearly pointed out
the numerous diculties and uncertainties (Hall et al., 1992). The diculty of evaluating the num-
ber of people exposed to these levels and for how long they are exposed. The need to consider their
characteristics (age, health, habits e.g. smoking, sex, race and socio-economic conditions). The
uncertainties deriving from an insucient scienti®c knowledge on the health e€ects from exposure
to several pollutants and from the lack of a threshold (so that a long exposure to small concentration
levels could be as or more dangerous then a short exposure to high concentration levels).
In addition no TSP dose±response relationship has ever been estimated for Italy. Therefore we
chose to use the one estimated for the U.S. based on the re-analysis by Evans et al. (1984, Table
8
As Evans et al. (1984, p. 77) stated ``It is unclear whether the cross-sectional studies measure the sum of acute impacts on
mortality from chronic disease or the impact of chronic exposure on development of chronic disease. Thus, the projected
mortality impacts might occur in the same year as the projected increase in emissions, or the mortality impacts might be
spread over the 20 to 30 years following the increase in emissions.''
 Estimating the cost of air pollution from road transport in Italy 253

18, p. 76) of the 1960 data used by Lave and Seskin (1977) which estimates a mortality coecient
for TSP equal to 0.338.9 This ®gure indicates the increased annual metropolitan deaths per
100,000 people for a unit increase in TSP concentration in micrograms per cubic metre (g/m3).
The decision to apply the US TSP dose-response relationship to estimate mortality in Italy
means that the greater the di€erences in the factors which a€ect the TSP mortality coecient the
more the estimates are unreliable. Such factors are the population density within an urban area,
the amount of time spent outdoors (which might depend on weather conditions and cultural
characteristics), the age structure of the population and the di€erences in eating habits and health
systems. In our opinion most factors lead us to state that for Italy the coecient is underestimated.

3.2. Estimating the annual mortality

Once the TSP concentration levels and mortality coecient have been identi®ed we need to
estimate how many people are exposed to those levels. Because of the lack of data we have
assumed that all inhabitants are subject to these levels. In order to appreciate how misleading the
assumption is we will list what we know and what we would like to know. We know that most
monitoring stations are located in central sites and that we would need to take into account that
within an urban area there are huge di€erences in air pollution levels. We have also noticed that
the monitoring stations are usually positioned in critical but not the worst sites. For instance the
monitoring stations are usually located in large squares (large enough to host a station) and not in
narrow lanes. Moreover we do not know the number of people that spend a considerable amount
of time in central areas (for work or for leisure) who might come from out of town. Therefore in
our opinion some factors lead to an overestimation while others to an underestimation. It is rather
dicult in the present circumstances to say what the net result is.
As we are aware of these shortcomings we have used eqn (1) to estimate the number of deaths
per hundred thousand people in each city size caused by transport:

No: of deaths per 100; 000 people ˆ mortality coefficient  concentration level
…1†
 percentage of transport emissions

and eqn (2) to estimate the total number of deaths in each city size:

No: of deaths ˆ No: of deaths per 100; 000 people  population …in hundred thousands† …2†

Given that transport's responsibility is equal to 82.7% of total urban TSP emissions we have
obtained the results reported in Table 2.
It results that 5096.3 people in cities with a population of more than 20,000 would die of expo-
sure to transport-related TSP pollution. They account for 0.017% of the cities' population. The
largest number of deaths (44%) is for the city size over 500,000 people, although only 17.2% of the
population lives there. Not surprisingly living in a big city puts life more at risk.
Our estimate of 5096 TSP-related premature deaths in 1993 (1.7 per 10,000 people) is impressive
and shocking to most people. It is comparable to the ones obtained by Maddison et al. (1996, Box
4.10) for the U.K. who estimate a total of 6665 premature mortalities caused by air pollutants
most of which were related to direct or indirect PM10 emissions. As we stated previously the result
is strongly dependent on the appropriateness of the assumption that all inhabitants are subject to
the measured concentration levels.

4. MONETARY EVALUATION

4.1. Cost of TSP mortality by city size

The total cost of particulate mortality is estimated by multiplying the total number of deaths by
the statistical value of life. The latter is derived from the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of

9
This is the pollution coecient from regressions with a single pollutant. The standard error is 0.198. For an estimate of
coecients with more than one measure of particulate air pollution see Evans et al. (1984, Table 17, p. 76).
254 R. Danielis and A. Chiabai

Table 2. TSP mortality caused by transport by city size

City size Concentration Population % of Italian Deaths per Total In %

population 100,000 deaths
inhabitants

20,000±100,000 44.4 15,515,452 27.8 12.4 1926.3 37.8

100,000±500,000 67.8 4,898,539 8.8 18.9 927.9 18.2
Beyond 500,000 83.6 9,599,982 17.2 23.4 2242.0 44.0

Table 3. TSP mortality cost

City size Particulate mortality cost (million $) In %

20,000±100,000 6,215.6 37.8

100,000±500,000 2,994.0 18.2
Beyond 500,000 7,234.2 44.0
Total 16,443.8 100.0

dying of air pollution. Since to our knowledge no estimates are available for Italy we used the
values most often quoted in recent research work at the EC level, i.e. ECU 2.6 million. This esti-
mate is presently under considerable debate (Pavan, 1996). The overall result is a cost of 16,443.8
million dollars (1992 values) which can be subdivided by city size as presented in Table 3. Note
that there is a year discrepancy. The concentration levels refer to the year 1993±1994 while the
value of life refers to the year 1992.

4.2. Cost per ton of urban PM10 emission

The contribution to TSP pollution by di€erent vehicles types was measured using information
taken from the CORINAIR emission estimates provided to us by the co-ordinator of the Italian
study, Roberto Del Ciello of ENEA (the National Institute for Alternative Energy). To be able to
combine our estimates with the CORINAIR database we had to make some adjustments. As
already mentioned we evaluated the mortality cost on the basis of the TSP concentration levels in
1992. But in 1990 the CORINAIR database switched from TSP emission estimates (Bocola et al.,
1989) to PM10 emission estimates (ENEA, 1990). Consequently we were forced to calculate not the
cost per ton of TSP emitted but the cost per ton of the corresponding PM10 emissions.10 Further-
more CORINAIR estimates the urban PM10 emissions from diesel vehicles only (which account
for about 90% of total emissions) and not the emissions from petrol- and LPG-powered cars and
motorbikes. We tried to ®ll this gap in the data available because of the signi®cance of petrol and
LPG contributions for policy analysis. The methodology is illustrated in the Appendix.
We then divided the total mortality cost by the total urban PM10 emission to evaluate the
mortality cost per ton of urban PM10 emitted. The results are presented in Table 4.
Before discussing the results two caveats should be pointed out. The ®rst is that, as shown in
Table 3, the total mortality cost (which appears in the numerator) was calculated taking only the
cities with a population of more than 20,000 into account. Whereas PM10 emissions (which appear
in the denominator) refer to the total urban trips. Since it is unclear what exactly an urban trip is
our values are underestimated unless the urban trips refer to the same sample of cities or there are
no PM10-related deaths in the towns with less than 20,000 people.

Table 4. Cost per ton of urban PM10 emission in 1992

Tons of urban PM10 emitted 18,758.6

Total mortality cost (million $) 16,443.8
Average mortality cost per ton emitted ($ per ton) 876.6
Mortality cost per ton emitted in the 20,000±100,000 city size 640.8
Mortality cost per ton emitted in the 100,000±500,000 city size 977.7
Mortality cost per ton emitted in the beyond 500,000 city size 1,205.5

10
It is our understanding that these are direct PM10 emissions and they do not take into consideration the indirect forma-
tion of PM10 from VOC, NOx and SOx. However we feel that it is unlikely that the relative vehicles' contribution would
be altered signi®cantly by considering both direct and indirect vehicles' emissions.
 Estimating the cost of air pollution from road transport in Italy 255

The second caveat is that the mortality cost per ton emitted for each city size is to be interpreted
as the cost that would be imposed if all emissions had taken place in a single city category pro-
ducing the concentration level measured in that class. In other words the mortality cost was cal-
culated by multiplying the mortality coecient by the concentration level of that city size by the
total population. This hypothetical mortality cost was then divided by the total PM10 emissions.
The results show that the mortality cost per ton of PM10 emitted is on average equal to 876.6
thousand dollars varying considerably with city size (from 640.8 thousand dollars in small towns
to 1205.5 thousand dollars in large cities).

4.3. Cost per type of vehicle

We have grouped vehicles in the following categories:
1. Petrol cars
less than 1400 cc;
between 1400 and 2000 cc;
more than 2000 cc;
2. Diesel vehicles
light-duty (less than 3.5 ton);
heavy-duty (more than 3.5 ton) and buses;
3. LPG vehicles.
In Table 5 we present our estimates of the contribution of each type of vehicle to mortality
costs. In the Appendix we have explained how the emissions per type of vehicle were estimated.
Diesel vehicles result as the largest contributors (95.2%) to PM10 emission related costs while
petrol vehicles contribute only 4.4%. Within the category of diesel vehicles, light-duty vehicles,
and heavy-duty vehicles and buses, contribute similar amounts. Unfortunately buses' emissions
are not estimated separately so that we are not able to estimate their speci®c contribution.

4.4. Cost per vehicle-km

In order to estimate the cost per vehicle-km we need to know the urban mileage per vehicle type.

Table 5. Cost per vehicle-type (at 1992 prices)

Vehicle type Tons of urban In % Average Cost in city Cost in city Cost in city±size
emissions cost size 20±100 size 100±500 beyond 500
thousand thousand thousand

Petrol 833 4.44 731 534 815 1005

Less than 1400 cc 686 3.66 602 440 671 828
Between 1400 and 2000 cc 130 0.69 114 83 127 157
More than 2000 cc 17 0.09 15 11 17 21
Diesel vehicles 17,864 95.23 15,660 11,448 17,467 21,535
Heavy-duty and buses 8785 46.83 9312 5630 8589 10,590
LPG 61 0.32 53 39 60 73
Total 18,759 100 16,444 12,021 18,341 22,613

Table 6. Cost per vehicle-km

Vehicle type Average cost Average cost Cost per km Cost per km Cost per km
per mile per km in city size in city size in city size
(cents of 1992 $) (1992 lirea) 20,000±100,000 100,000±500,000 beyond 500,000

Petrol 1.5 14.7 10.7 16.4 20.2

Less than 1400 cc 1.0 9.7 7.1 10.9 13.4
Between 1400 and 2000 cc 1.5 14.1 10.3 5.8 19.4
More than 2000 cc 2.1 20.1 14.7 22.4 27.7
Diesel vehicles 46.1 446.8 326.7 498.4 614.5
Light-duty 27.0 261.8 191.4 292.0 360.1
Heavy-duty and buses 170.9 1656.2 1210.8 1847.2 2277.5
LPG 1.2 11.3 8.3 12.6 15.6
Total 18.9 183.6 134.2 204.8 252.5

a
Assuming an exchange rate of 1560 lire per dollar unit.
256 R. Danielis and A. Chiabai

Table 7. Some comparisons

Los Angeles Italy

1992 ¯eet averages Italy/L.A.
*
Lire per km Petrol cars=1 Lire per km Petrol cars=1

Petrol car 1.34 1 14.7 1 10.9

Light-duty diesel truck 45.9 34.2 261.8 17.8 5.7
Heavy-duty diesel truck 274.06 204.5 1656.2 112.9 6.0

*
Our calculations based on Small and Kazimi (1995, Table 8) using an exchange rate of 1560 lire per dollar.

In the Appendix we report on how they were estimated. By dividing the cost per vehicle-type
(Table 5) by the urban mileage of each vehicle (Table A2) we obtained the cost per vehicle-km or
vehicle-mile for each type of vehicle (Table 6).
The results show a large variability in the cost per vehicle-km in relation to vehicle type and city
size. On average LPG cars impose on an urban area a cost of 11.3 lire per km while petrol cars
impose a cost of 14.7 and diesel vehicles a cost of 446.8. Therefore it is con®rmed that diesel
vehicles are the ones which impose the largest costs on society. Their external cost is 30 times
higher than that of petrol cars. It follows, as a policy implication, that an hypothetical air pollu-
tion charge should then di€erentiate by vehicle fuel type according to their relative contribution.
Moreover, as far as the existing fuel excise taxes could be interpreted as air pollution charges, one
could conclude that they misrepresent vehicles' relative responsibility.
A closer look at disaggregated ®gures provide us with more information. Within the category of
petrol cars the cost per km varies with engine size. Cars with less than 1400 cc impose half the cost
of cars with more than 2000 cc. Within the category of diesel vehicles, heavy-duty trucks and buses
impose a cost 6 times higher than light-duty vehicles. Unfortunately, because of a lack of data, it
was not possible to separate out heavy-duty trucks from buses. Such results indicate, if not a
complete ban on circulation of heavy-duty diesel vehicles in urban areasÐwhich is a measure
already in place on speci®c days and at speci®c times, at least the need to divert their route from
residential areas or to impose a high fee on them.
Costs are also dependent on city size. In large cities they are twice that of in small towns.
Hypothetical air pollution charges should therefore be di€erentiated not only between rural and
urban trips but by conurbation size as well.

5. CONCLUSIONS AND RESEARCH PERSPECTIVES

This paper estimates the ambient air pollution costs imposed by various types of vehicles in
urban areas in Italy. The exercise is useful for two reasons. First because it provides estimates
which can be used in cost±bene®t analysis, in optimal pricing models and in pollution pricing
applications. Second because it allows us to learn about the environmental and transport data
requirements and quality for valuation exercises.
As regards the second reason we have seen that in Italy both environmental and transport data
are scarce and of poor quality. But as far as environmental data are concerned there are
encouraging signs of improvements. Ambient air pollution measurements are increasing in
quantity and quality and CORINAIR estimates provide us with a consistent time series
database. On the contrary transport data, especially mileage, are still sketchy and of poor
reliability.
Are our estimates reliable? In our view the main uncertainties relate to whether the city set and
monitoring sites within each urban area are representative and to the appropriateness for Italy of
the dose±response relationship and of the value of statistical life that we used.
With these caveats in mind we have compared our estimates with those of Small and Kazimi
(1995) for Los Angeles. Table 7
Our estimates show that in absolute terms in Italy the PM10 emission costs per vehicle-km are
much higher than in Los Angeles (by a factor of 11 times for petrol cars and 6 times for diesel
trucks). This might be due to the higher density of Italian townsÐwhich entails higher congestion,
lower emission eciency, higher damage and lower mileageÐand the likely technological ine-
ciency of the Italian ¯eet which is one of the oldest among the developed countries. In 1997 the
 Estimating the cost of air pollution from road transport in Italy 257

Italian government, following several other European governments, started a programme to

accelerate vehicles' retirement. Our estimates could also be used to evaluate the pollution bene®ts
of that programme.
With regards to the relative contribution of petrol, light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles our esti-
mates are similar to the ones presented by Small and Kazimi. Heavy-duty vehicles (including
buses) are overwhelmingly the most important source of particulate mortality in urban areas and
therefore transport planners and city administrators should pay more attention to them.
Although it would be possible to make many re®nements and extensions to our estimates two
main directions are envisaged. First the analysis could be extended by including other relevant
pollutant such as benzene, SO2 and ozone and also by considering e€ects other than mortality or
e€ects on buildings and the natural environment. Second in order to test the average national
results obtained one could apply the methodology to a more restricted zone such as a metropolitan
area or a medium-size town.

AcknowledgementsÐThe authors would like to thank Roberto Del Ciello of ENEA for providing them with CORINAIR
estimates and useful insights into how to interpret them.

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258 R. Danielis and A. Chiabai

APPENDIX

Estimates of PM10 emissions by vehicle type in 1992

Our estimates were obtained as follows. We had data for cars' TSP emission at urban level from 1985±1989 by fuel-type
and the urban PM10 emission from 1985±1992 for diesel-powered cars only. The 1992 PM10 emissions by fuel type were
estimated in two steps. First we estimated the 1985±1989 PM10 emission for petrol and LPG powered cars according to the
below equation with the assumption that there is a stable physical relationship between TSP and PM10 emissions.

PM10 yf emission ˆ TSPyf emission  …PM10 = TSP†yd

where y ˆ …1985; 1986; . . . ; 1989†; f stands for petrol or LPG and d stands for diesel.
Next we extrapolated the 1992 PM10 emissions by applying the average annual growth rate in the previous years (which
was equal to 5.4% for petrol and 7.9% for LPG).
The results are reported in Table A1.

Estimates of urban mileage

Data come from di€erent sources (ANFIA, CORINAIR and Minister of Transport). The results are reported in
Table A2.

Table A1. Urban PM10 emissions by vehicle type in 1992

PM10 (tons)

Diesel cars 5861.6a

Petrol cars 833.4b
LPG cars 60.8b
Total cars 6755.8
Light-duty vehicles with less than 3.5 tons 3217.7a
Heavy-duty vehicles with more than 3.5 tons and buses 8785.1a
Total 18,758.6

a
CORINAIR estimates.
b
Our estimates based on CORINAIR data.

Table A2. Estimates of urban mileage

Vehicle type Vehicle Annual mileage % of urban Total urban Total urban
number per vehicle unit (km)d tripsd trips per vehicle trips (km)
unit (km)

Petrol 24,688,155a 77,715,295,527

Less than 1400 cc 19,435,153b 6100 54 3294 64,019,394,528
Between 1400 and 2000 cc 4,474,140b 8200 33 2706 12,107,022,911
More than 2000 cc 778,862b 10,200 20 2040 1,588,878,088
Diesel vehicles 5,384,843 47,419,008,000
Light-duty 4,939,480c 24,000 40 9600 6,540,413,750
Heavy-duty and buses 445,363a 65,000e 25e 16,250e 7,253,808,975f
LPG 1,047,837 20,000 35 7000 7,334,859,000
Total 31,120,835 139,722,971,502

a
Source: An®a (1995).
b
Estimated distribution of total petrol cars by engine size, based on the percentage calculated from CORINAIR data for
1985..
c
Source: An®a (1995). We summed the number of diesel-powered cars (3,439,398) plus the diesel trucks (with less than 3
tons) (760,526+300,424+710,393+111,882) minus the petrol-powered trucks (383,143).
d
Source: from CORINAIR data for 1985.
e
Source: from CORINAIR data for 1985 for heavy-duty vehicles only.
f
Source: Minister of Transport (1994) for buses (713,395,225).