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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.16 Monday, 19 – 25 February 2018 Pgs.22 Rs.20

PNB scam sends shivers down Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &
Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis to
D-Street get a view of the stock market and the
By Sanjay R. Bhatia happenings which many may not be aware of.

The positive beginning to the week was short-lived as the PNB scam came to limelight. A fresh round of selling pressure
was witnessed as the benchmark indices especially Bank Nifty fell sharply. The markets failed to offer any resilience due
to lack of buying support. Even positive global cues and positive domestic inflation numbers failed to boost the market
sentiment.
The FIIs remained net sellers in the cash segment but were seen hedging their short-positions by remaining net buyers
in the derivatives segment. The breadth of the market remained weak amidst high volumes, which is a negative sign. The
US markets moved higher on the back of good economic numbers. Crude oil prices moved higher trading between $61-
64 after last week’s carnage when the dollar neared a three-year low. On the domestic side, the earnings season
remained a mixed bag.
Technically, the prevailing negative technical conditions
weighed on the market sentiment leading to selling pressure.
Believe it or not!
 Dynemic Products recommended at
The Stochastic, KST and RSI are all placed below their respective Rs.199.80 in TT last week, zoomed to
averages on the daily and weekly charts. Further, the MACD is Rs.226.95 fetching 14% returns in just 1 week!
placed below its average on the daily chart. Moreover, the Nifty  Maan Aluminium recommended at Rs.151.25
is placed below its 50-day SMA. These negative technical in TT last week, zoomed to Rs.168 fetching
conditions could lead to intermediate bouts of selling pressure. 11% returns in just 1 week!
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however, still hold  IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
good. The MACD is placed above its average on the weekly chart. recommended at Rs.73.70 in TT on 5 February
Moreover, the Nifty is placed above its 100-day SMA and 200- 2018, zoomed to Rs.93.45 fetching 27%
day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA is placed above its 100-day returns in just 2 weeks!
and 200-day SMA, its 100-day SMA is placed above its 200-day  Autoline Industries recommended at
SMA indicating a ‘golden cross’ breakout. These positive Rs.84.70 in SA on 5 February 2018, zoomed to
technical conditions could lead to buying support at lower Rs.101.90 fetching 20% returns in just 2
levels. weeks!
The –DI line is placed above the +DI line and is placed above the  Mirc Electronics recommended at Rs.51.05 in
31 level. But it has come off its recent highs, which indicates that BE on 5 February 2018, zoomed to Rs.58.55
the sellers are covering shorts regularly. However, the ADX line fetching 15% returns in just 2 weeks!
is placed above 30, which indicates that the sellers have an (BE – Bull’s Eye; SA – Stock Analysis; TT – Tower Talk)
upper hand. The market sentiment remains weak and nervous.
The fresh Nirav Modi led PNB scam has kept the market
This happens only in Money Times!
sentiment subdued reminding everyone of similar scams earlier. Now in its 27th Year

A Time Communications Publication 1


The Nifty continues to struggle above the resistance level of
10585. However, it has managed to sustain above 10270,
which augurs well for the markets. It is important for the
Nifty to move and sustain above 10585 for selling pressure to
ease. If it fails to sustain, then further selling pressure is likely
and the Nifty could once again move lower to test the 10270
level followed by 10000.
In the meanwhile, the markets will take cues from the news
flow on the PNB scam, global markets, earnings season, news
flow on the Parliament session, news flow on the forthcoming
assembly elections, Dollar-Rupee exchange rate and crude oil
prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 34342, 34700,
35221, 35823, 36162, 36269, 36750, 37000 and 37350 levels
and seeks support at the 34000, 33700, 33055 and 32595 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 10585,
10666, 10875 and 11009 while the support levels are placed at 10423, 10325, 10270, 10000 and 9735.

BAZAR.COM

Unpardonable plunder!
History in its annals has many names of foreign rulers who came to India to plunder its immense wealth and rich
culture. Well, that was in the medieval and ancient era. Today, we have plunders from our country aided by the system.
The banks and securities market remain the soft targets for such plunders and scams. Non-performing assets (NPAs)
more often than not remain the most sophisticated way of looting the banks of the depositors’ hard-earned money. The
scam amounts remain an integral part of such NPAs. Hardly had the issue of NPAs settled with FM’s recapitalization
plan, there came in a $1.77 bn fraud at Punjab
National Bank (PNB). A thunderbolt of its kind Winners 2018 begin to perform…
this was!
By all means this Rs.11300 crore PNB scam was 8th week score
the biggest to hit any bank in the country.
History could talk of the Rs.4900 crore Harshad Of the 32 stocks, 22 stocks tested CP providing opportunity to enter at
Mehta scam during 1992 or CRB Finance’s Rs.57 lower levels. Thereafter, 11 stocks were trading in profit at 15.20 pm
crore scam in 1996 or Home Trade’s Rs.600 on 16/02/2018.
crore scam or Ketan Parekh’s Rs.1200 crore Of the 32 stocks, 2 stocks tested L2 providing opportunity to enter at
scam in 2001 and Bank of Baroda’s fraudulent lower levels. Thereafter, both the stocks were trading in profit at 15.20
export bill discounting of Rs.350 crore in 2015. pm on 16/02/2018 with gains of 11.39% and 16.23%.
Today, PNB faces a contingent liability in respect
of Letters of Undertaking (LOUs) that have been Of the 32 stocks, 7 stocks tested L3. Profit-booking level gains on L3
fraudulently issued to Nirav Modi (NiMo) and are: 11.06%, 16.56%, 25.25%, 42.42%, 16.95% and 30.18%.
Mehul Choksi group. The bank wrote letters to
all major lenders on Wednesday informing them Of the 32 stocks, all the stocks were gainers during the Jan-Feb period
of the fraud. Banks that have lent on the basis of at some point and we still have 10 months to go.
the LOUs issued by PNB have an exposure close
to Rs.11000 crore. LOU is like a bank guarantee The market is currently in a crash mode thereby allowing opportunity
that undertakes to pay lenders if the borrowers to enter at CP and L2.
default.
Currently, we have 7 gainers.
Initial investigations indicate that Allahabad
Bank, Axis Bank and UBI had funded close to Get Yearly and Quarterly Levels for accumulation and an update on
Rs.7000 crore on the back of such LOUs. It is also Quarterly levels every quarter.
believed that a major chunk of the loans were
sold down. State Bank of India and Bank of There are 44 more weeks to go!
Mauritius have secondary exposure. Bank For details of Winners 2018, please refer to ad on page no.5
sources in their initial workout fear this scam to

A Time Communications Publication 2


be worth Rs.20000 crore as other banks too are involved. What started off as a complaint of a Rs.280 crore fraud is
assuming multiple dimensions and investigating agencies fear that this could only be the tip of an iceberg.
The market is just beginning to feel this deadly blow and if the RBI and the government do not issue statements of
recovering the assets from the fraudsters at the earliest and act on it, the damage to the loss of faith in banks will be
colossal. Today, banking stocks have been hit but in no time the flames could engulf the entire economy.
Politically, the blame game has begun and the photographs of NiMo with all the big wigs of UPA and NDA are floating in
the media. The ball of blames has to stop rolling and the earlier the fraudster’s assets are frozen, the better it is. NiMo
has left the country and it is yet to be known where he is seeking asylum. If ten errant officials in connivance with
borrowers could hold the country to ransom, the Indian banking industry needs a total revamp before the trust is
eroded and the economy limps. The market, in view of this, may see a tight lid upside and a nerve-wrecking fall in
banking stocks.
Auto companies reported growth in revenues and profits for Q3. Commercial vehicles (CVs), two-wheelers and tractor
sales boosted revenue and profit margins. Passenger cars, however, proved to be a drag. The adjoining table presents
the motown’s leg up.
Financial Highlights: (Rs. in crore) January 2018 sales of automobiles are more
Company Revenue Revenue PAT PAT encouraging with CV sales up by 40%
(Q3FY18) (Q3FY17) (Q3FY18) (Q3FY17) compared to January 2017, medium and
Tata Motors 16101 11221 183 (1045) heavy commercial vehicles up by 18% and
Mahindra & Mahindra 11577 11777 1215 1112 light commercial vehicles up by 58%.
Eicher Motors 2264 2070 472 415 Motorcycles and scooters grew 28% and
48% respectively.
Ashok Leyland 7113 4723 449 185
Escorts 1205 1092 92 22 If auto sales are any indication, it points to a
Hero MotoCorp 7305 6898 805 772 revival in the economy. GST collection, too,
may pick up and the firming up of base
metal prices given the rising demand augurs well for the overall growth. Interesting developments are taking place at
the buy outs and acquisition of stressed steel assets by their healthier peers under the insolvency auction procedure.
Tata Steel, JSW Steel and the L.N. Mittal group have shown interest in big ticket stressed steel entities like Bhushan Steel,
Electrosteel and Monnet Ispat.
The markets for now seem to be in a fatigue mode and eagerly await fresh developments in the PNB plunder case. Till
then, ‘sell’ should be the syndrome and rightly so.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

200-day average to be tested


By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 34010 Down 34681 Up 33440 Up 31105

Last week, the Sensex opened at 34203.34, attained a


high at 34535.07 and fell to a low of 33957.32 before it
finally closed the week at 34010 and thereby showed a
flat gain of 5 points on a week-to-week basis.
Daily Chart
The daily chart trend is down as the closing is below the
DRV of 34681.
The pullback was weak in relation to the fall witnessed
from 36443 to 33482. At the low of 33482, a halt was
witnessed and the up-move in the last few days was for a
minor pullback. The nature of the movement was
sideways as there was an alternate day up and down
movement last week on the daily chart.

A Time Communications Publication 3


The daily chart bias seems to move lower towards the 200-day EMA and SMA, which are placed at 32506 and 32498.
A pullback reversal may be witnessed on a rise and close above the DRV of 34681 with a bullish candle. Even if a
pullback reversal is witnessed in the near-term above 34667, 61.8% of the fall is the maximum limit of the rise, which is
at 35315.
A fall and close below 33482 can result into a slide towards the 200-day averages and to the external retracement of
32351 and 31667.
Weekly Chart
The gap at the higher level is a cause of concern for the medium-term. The gap at the higher level on the weekly chart is
at 34874-35006. The body gap gets closed at 35067.
Support on the weekly chart is at 33482, 32595 and 32565. The next cluster of support can be at 31081-31128.
Weekly resistance will be at 34378-34955. Expect the lower range of 33800-33222 to be tested.
Monthly Chart
The monthly chart has made a swing top in the current month. A sharp rise above 36443 if witnessed can make it into an
out day pattern.
A swing top is in place on the monthly chart and, therefore, the correction can be towards the earlier higher bottoms of
32565 and 31081. The Monthly Reversal Value (MRV) is placed at 34105, which could be tested if the close by the end of
February 2018 is deep below the current level.
Yearly Chart
The Centre Points for all the indices must be watched as they could be the likely support during the year for intra-day/
year correction and for consolidation.
From the yearly chart perspective, it seems that the Sensex and the Nifty are keen to test the Yearly Centre Point of
31547 and 9739 respectively in the near-to-short-term. Consolidation must happen near the Yearly Centre Point in
order to make a breakout attempt to sustain above the Yearly Level 3 (L3) as shown in the table. At this point, the
indices are in a correction mode.
Index Dec-17 Level 1 Level 2 Centre Point Level 3 Level 4
Nifty 50 10531 6507 8926 9739 11344 13763
Nifty Bank 25539 12140 20262 23108 28385 36508
S&P BSE Sensex 34057 21266 28957 31547 36648 44338
S&P BSE Mid-Cap 17822 8095 13937 15894 19779 25622
S&P BSE Small-Cap 19231 7268 14452 16857 21636 28820
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Down
3-Day trend - Down
8-Day trend - Down
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Up
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Up
Monthly chart:
1-Month trend - Down
3-Month trend - Up
8-Month trend - Up
Quarterly chart:
1-Quarter trend - Down
3-Quarter trend - Up
8-Quarter trend - Up

A Time Communications Publication 4


Yearly chart:
1-Year trend - Down Released on 1st January 2018…
3-Year trend - Up Winners of 2018
8-Year trend - Up 31 stocks set to perform with quarterly review:
The Daily ROC trend Here is the Performance Review of ‘Winners of 2017’
is down in all Top performers of Winners of 2017
timeframes. The Sr. Name Closing on Closing on % Gain on High in % Gains
No 30/12/16 22/12/17 Closing 2017 on
Weekly ROC trend is 22/12/17 High 2017
sideways with 3- 1 Rain Industries 54.90 360.20 556.10 402.65 633.42
week ROC as 2 Panama Petrochem 59.03 259.50 339.61 264.00 347.23
downtrend. The 3 KEC International 140.45 375.90 167.64 391.45 178.71
Monthly, Quarterly 4 Remsons Industries 50.50 122.20 141.98 146.80 190.69
and Yearly trends are 5 GNFC 213.60 480.30 124.86 548.50 156.79
6 Archidply Industries 58.20 120.65 107.30 124.00 113.06
now in the
7 Chambal Fertilisers & Chemicals 71.05 146.50 106.19 157.50 121.67
downtrend on 1 8 Sundram Fasteners 290.50 583.00 100.69 598.00 105.85
Month ROC. 9 KNR Constructions 172.75 308.00 78.29 314.25 81.91
BSE Mid-Cap Index 10 Solar Industries India 674.90 1173.00 73.80 1272.80 88.59
11 Asian Hotels (North) 102.35 176.00 71.96 177.95 73.86
The 200-day EMA
12 Steel Strips Wheels 617.70 1050.40 70.05 1100.95 78.23
and SMA have lent 13 NBCC (India) 159.38 254.00 59.37 291.30 82.77
support as the BSE 14 Dwarikesh Sugar Industries 32.06 47.75 48.92 80.40 150.78
Mid-Cap index had 15 HPCL 294.35 429.25 45.83 492.80 67.42
corrected to 15776. 16 Mukand 62.60 88.95 42.09 109.35 74.68
The 200-day EMA 17 Tube Investments of India 584.80 793.20 35.64 862.00 47.40
and SMA are placed 18 RPP Infra Projects 231.45 311.80 34.72 362.75 56.73
at 15979 and 16040. 19 Procter & Gamble 7084.05 9385.00 32.48 9900.00 39.75
20 Mangalore Refinery & Petro 98.20 128.45 30.80 146.70 49.39
A pullback was 21 Jain Irrigation Systems 58.40 75.40 29.11 79.25 35.70
witnessed to the DRV 22 Bharat Petroleum Corporation 423.88 536.50 26.57 551.55 30.12
of 16993 but failed to 23 National Aluminium Company 65.30 82.15 25.80 97.60 49.46
sustain above it. On 24 Sutlej Textiles & Industries 80.19 97.40 21.47 98.80 23.22
Friday, a fall was 25 Ccl Products (India) 265.45 300.75 13.30 372.00 40.14
26 Balrampur Chini Mills 125.25 139.00 10.98 182.50 45.71
seen on the daily
27 Zydus Wellness 866.15 951.10 9.81 988.00 14.07
chart with a bearish 28 NTPC 164.75 179.95 9.23 188.00 14.11
candle, which 29 RPG Life Sciences 480.25 492.00 2.45 536.20 11.65
suggests that the BSE 30 J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 351.30 318.40 -9.37 367.95 4.74
Mid-Cap index may 31 Electrotherm (India) 197.55 176.95 -10.43 308.00 55.91
once again test the Most of the gains of 2017 were lost in the last quarter due to market conditions.
200-day averages. The average gains are now 5.6% from an average of 29.3% at the highest
A reversal for the Rain Industries Ltd stands out with 633.42% gain
pullback could For just Rs.6000, book your copy of the 13th edition and welcome the New Year in
resume above 17015
and till then, expect the company of ‘Winners of 2018’!
an immediate bias to For subscription details contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at moneytimes.support@gmail.com
test 16403-15776.
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Down
The ROC Trend is down in all timeframes and therefore, the objective remains to exit long and sell as much as possible to
generate cash. Even if a rise is seen on a week-to-week basis, do not get baffled. The objective is to clean up portfolios
and restore strong stocks.
BSE Small-Cap Index
1-Week trend - Down

A Time Communications Publication 5


3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Down
A pullback reversal could resume on a close above 18673.
A bounce was seen two weeks back from the 200-day averages to test the 10-day variable average. Resistance was seen
at the 10-day variable average and on Friday, a fall was seen with a bearish candle. Therefore, a further rise could
resume only above 18673 and till then, traders can exit long.
Expect support at 17481-18436.
Strategy for the week
Exit long and sell on a rise to 34167-34378-34955 with a stop loss of 35100. Expect the lower range of 33367-31976 to
be tested. The 200-day averages can provide valuable support at 32506 and 32498. The BSE Mid-Cap and BSE Small-Cap
indices found support on the 200-day averages whereas the Sensex still has to test them. The BSE Mid-Cap and BSE
Small-Cap indices may once again try to test the 200-day averages.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
JSW STEEL 311.70 305.6 306.4 310.9 316.2 326.1 68.4 302.6 22-12-17
IIFL HOLDINGS 776.40 751.5 752.2 775.6 799.8 847.3 61.7 749.9 15-12-17
GOODYEAR INDIA 1170 1122 1131.7 1160.3 1198.7 1265.7 60.3 1104.3 16-02-18
JMC PROJECTS (INDIA) 595.75 570.9 572.8 593.9 616.9 661 58.7 571.8 09-02-18
GUJARAT ALKALIES &
CHEMICALS 790 745 748.3 786.7 828.3 908.3 57.1 766.3 16-02-18

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
ALLAHABAD BANK 54.75 42.9 51.4 56.5 59.8 61.6 27.30 61.64 29-12-17
BANK OF MAHARASHTRA 18.40 17.1 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.4 27.97 19.30 19-01-18
SYNDICATE BANK 59.65 47.4 56.4 62.2 65.5 68 29.03 67.20 01-12-17
UNITED BANK OF INDIA 14.85 13.7 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 29.84 15.86 19-01-18
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK 125.65 66.4 109.6 136.7 152.8 163.8 30.52 156.22 02-02-18

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

A Time Communications Publication 6


EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS

SUTLEJ TEXTILES INDUSTRIES 81.95 88.02 90.50 92.98 101 67 32.17


SUPREME PETROCHEM 344 349.64 354.58 359.51 375.50 307.8 38.01
MOTHERSON SUMI SYSTEMS 326 339.77 345.88 351.98 371.75 288 40.59
CENTURY TEXTILES & INDUSTRIES 1195 1244.35 1273.50 1302.65 1397 997.4 40.98
GRUH FINANCE 518.35 535.13 545.67 556.22 590.35 445.8 42.50
BIRLA CORPORATION 969 1054.77 1082.50 1110.23 1200 819.8 42.58
REDINGTON (INDIA) 147.65 155.91 161.20 166.49 183.60 111.1 42.97
RASHTRIYA CHEMICALS & FERTILIZERS 82.80 86.69 89.38 92.06 100.75 63.9 44.30

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS

- - - - - - - -

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -

TOWER TALK
 White Organic Agro, the only listed company that caters to all organic activities, reported excellent results with an
EPS of Rs.6 for 9MFY18. The stock is a steal at the current level. Buy and hold for the long-term.
 Gujarat State Petronet reported PAT of Rs.181.56 crore in Q3FY18, up from Rs.118.56 crore in Q3FY17. A good
long-term buy.
 I G Petrochemicals posted an EPS of Rs.37 for 9MFY18, which suggests that the earnings for FY18 may cross Rs.50.
Considering the industry P/E of ~22.83x, the stock may cross the four-figure mark very soon. Buy immediately.
 REC is again in top gear. Good earnings and dividend yield make it a good buy. It paid an interim dividend of Rs.7.40
and a final dividend of Rs.3 is a possibility. Add on every decline.
 Prakash Industries has issued convertible warrants of Rs.234 crore to promoters and others to fund its expansion
plans. It is expected to report excellent results going forward. A good buy.
 The electrical vehicles push can take Mahindra & Mahindra to greater heights. An excellent long-term buy from the
automobile sector.
 GVK Power & Infrastructure plans to raise up to $1 bn via dollar bonds to fund the Mumbai airport project and
refinance its current debt. Reduction in finance cost will boost its earnings. Buy.
 Power Grid Corporation of India is expected to grow at 18-20% annually over the next few years. A good long-
term buy.
 NBCC (India) plans to subdivide its share to a face value of Re.1. This will improve liquidity. With huge orders in
hand, its future appears bright. Buy.
 Amara Raja Batteries reported good results for Q3 with 20% higher PAT on 17% higher sales. A good time to
accumulate this stock.
 K. Raheja group company Prism Cement reported PAT of Rs.14.85 crore in Q3FY18 as against a loss of Rs.47.02
crore in Q3FY17. A good buy.
 NMDC doles out ~50% of PAT as dividend and is currently sitting on huge cash reserves. Rising iron ore prices and
expectations of a high dividend payout makes it a good investment.

A Time Communications Publication 7


 Huge finance fraud detected at Punjab National Bank. This may just be the tip of an iceberg. Sell immediately.
 Gitanjali Gems is reportedly involved in defrauding a PSU bank. The stock has fallen drastically. Be cautious and
stay away from the counter till the dust settles.
 Allahabad Bank incurred huge losses of Rs.1263.8 crore in Q3 primarily due to much higher provisioning.
Considering the rising NPAs, it may be prudent to sell now.
 In times of turmoil, only the best will survive. It may be prudent to invest in the aquaculture industry. Buy
Waterbase, Avanti Feeds and Apex Frozen Foods for safety of capital.
 National Aluminium Company posted fantastic results for Q3 with 5x higher PAT YoY and it paid an interim
dividend of 94%. Buy.
 Welspun Enterprises posted 105% higher PAT of Rs.34.4 crore. With expansions in the offing, its long-term
prospects look good. Buy.
 Shree Cement has commissioned a new cement grinding unit in Rajasthan. The additional capacity which was
funded by internal accruals will contribute significantly to its bottom-line. Buy.
 Infibeam Incorporation posted 143% higher PAT of Rs.30.83 crore on 108% higher sales of Rs.212.7 crore in
Q3FY18. It is likely to continue its northward journey.
 Zee Learn is set to acquire 44.53% stake in MT Educare through a preferential allotment. A positive for both
companies.
 Bharti Airtel plans to list its Africa Profitrak Weekly
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A Time Communications Publication 8


October 2017 to Rs.170.4 last week; and Kriti Nutrients appreciated 133% from Rs.21.50 in October 2017 to Rs.50
last week!
 Indian banks have seen scams of lakhs of crore of rupees in the past. The new 10-Rs.10000-15000 crore scam is
unlikely to trigger a huge fall. It is the right time to buy good quality stocks.

BEST BET

Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd


(BSE Code: 523319) (CMP: Rs.233) (FV: Rs.10)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Established by Stephan Balmer and Alexander Lawrie in 1867, Balmer Lawrie & Company Ltd (BLCL) is a Public Sector
enterprise under the control of the Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas. It is a debt-free PSU with a turnover of over
Rs.2100 crore. It operates through five segments – Tours & Travels, Industrial Packaging, Logistics, Lubricants and
Others (engineering products, tea packaging, leather chemicals, etc). It is India's leading manufacturer of MS (mild steel)
drums with the largest market share in the country. It has a distributed manufacturing base with factories in Mumbai,
Silvassa, Chennai, Kolkata, Chittoor and Asaoti. It is also the largest grease producer in India and one of the ten largest in
Asia. Its manufacturing plants are located at Chennai, Kolkata, Silvassa with a state-of-the-art Applications Research
Laboratory at Kolkata. Its businesses are built on indigenous technology, which is steadily upgraded with modern
advancements. Its plants are ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and OHSAS 18001 certified. ‘Balmerol’ is its premier brand of
industrial, automotive and speciality range of lubricants.
BLCL entered the leather chemicals business in the mid-80s. Today, it has grown to be a market leader in Synthetic Fat
Liquors. It markets Syntanes to leather tanneries across the country under the brand name of ‘Balmol’. Its state-of-the-
art production development centre at Chennai is fully equipped with all modern facilities. It has technical service centres
across the country in Kolkata, Kanpur, Ranipet, Ambur, etc.
Balmer Lawrie Travel & Vacations provides end-to-end domestic and international travel services including ticketing,
tourism and MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions and Events) related services. It is one of the oldest IATA
accredited travel agencies in India and operates from 88+ locations across 19 cities in the country.
Balmer Lawrie LS offers a wide range of logistics solutions. It has a strong national and global network managed by a
team of experts supplemented by the latest communication facilities. It offers complete logistics solutions for all types of
cargo and is a reputed IATA-accredited facility. Its services include handling both inbound and outbound cargo. It is also
into aircraft chartering, air lifting sensitive defense equipments, helicopters, missiles and satellite paths.
BLCL is ranked no.1 among India's ocean cargo operators. It offers services that include non-vessel operating common
carriers (NVOCC), multi-modal transport operations, vessel chartering, door-to-door movement for break bulk, project
cargo logistics management and turnkey execution. It has three state-of-the-art Container Freight Stations (CFSs) in
Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai. Its warehousing and distribution facilities in Kolkata and Coimbatore to handle a whole
range of cargo promptly and safely.
Conclusion: BLCL is a debt-free and cash-rich company. Despite such
Financials: (Rs. in crore)
a strong balance sheet, the stock trades at a very low P/E making it
the cheapest stock among logistics companies. The government holds Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
59.67% stake in Balmer Lawrie Investments Ltd (BLIL) which in turn Revenue 3229 1902 1822 2136
holds 61.85% stake in BLCL. Hence technically, the effective indirect PBDT 3018 1647 1575 1782
control over BLCL by the government is ~37%. In our view, it doesn’t
Net Profit 178 170 162 205
make sense for the government to continue to hold such minority
stake in a company. Further, considering the present government’s EPS (Rs.) 15.5 15 14 18
thrust on divestments, we believe that eventually BLCL could be put Dividend (Rs.) 5 7 7 8
up for complete divestment.
Considering its aggressive expansion plans and the anticipated turnaround in the industrial economy, we believe that
BLCL will report an impressive performance in FY19. Given its net cash position (~11% of its current market cap) and
its rich real estate asset base, if we take a P/E of 20x on FY19E EPS of Rs.18, we arrive at a price target of Rs.360. Hence,
we recommend this stock for a price target of Rs.360 within a year In case the company is divested completely, then the
stock could even turn into a multibagger in the long-run.

A Time Communications Publication 9


STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Aditya Birla Capital Ltd


(BSE Code: 540691) (CMP: Rs.164.45) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.205+)
Incorporated in 2007, Mumbai-based Aditya Birla Capital Ltd (ABCL), formerly Aditya Birla Financial Services Ltd,
provides various financial products and services. It offers customized solutions in the areas of personal and business
loans, corporate finance, mortgages, capital market based lending, project loans, structured finance, wealth management
and digital lending, debt capital markets and syndication to retail, small and medium enterprises (SME), micro SME and
corporate customers. It also offers housing finance solutions such as home loans, home improvement and construction
loans, balance transfer and top-up loans, loans against property (LAP) and construction finance. In addition, it provides
asset management services such as sector specific equity schemes, fund of fund schemes, hybrid and monthly income
funds, debt and treasury products, offshore funds; portfolio management and investment advisory services to offshore
funds and high net worth investors (HNIs); and financial advisory and management services with a focus on managing
venture capital funds and alternate investment funds to investors and partners. Further, it offers securities and
commodities broking, portfolio management, depository and e-insurance repository solutions and distribution of other
financial products; protection solutions, children's future solutions, wealth protection solutions, health and wellness
solutions, retirement solutions and savings with protection solutions; and general insurance broking and risk advisory
solutions to companies and individuals. Additionally, it operates MyUniverse.co.in, an online money management
platform that offers customers account aggregation of various financial services and products. It operates through 1,300
points of presence besides agents and channel partners.
ABCL reported a healthy quarter with consolidated PBT up 30% YoY at Rs.4.1 bn. PAT, however, was up just 12% YoY
due to normalization of tax rate (36% v/s 21% in the previous corresponding period). The base quarter had a one-off
tax gain of ~Rs.400 mn. Loan book grew 2%/ 33% QoQ/ YoY to Rs.398 bn, driven by 35% YoY growth in 9MFY18
disbursements. The share of mid-corporate loans declined from 17% in Q2FY18 to 15% in the quarter, mainly due to
heavy repayments in the structured finance book. RoA/RoE was stable at 1.9%/ 14.5% while the GNPL ratio inched up
to 0.7% from 0.5% in Q2FY18.
While overall AUM (assets under management) grew
24% YoY to Rs.2.4 tn, equity AUM grew 84% YoY to
For the busy investor
Rs.800 bn. Its share is now 33% v/s 22% in Q3FY17. We
expect the growth in equity AUM to drive PAT margin Fresh One Up Trend Daily
expansion from 10 bps in FY17 to 15 bps by FY20. Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
ABCL is a strong play on financialisation of savings and keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
low penetration across the financial services business. It trading day.
is expected to report over 25% PAT CAGR over FY17-
With just one daily recommendation selected from
20, driven by strong traction in the lending and asset
stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
management businesses.
day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
Technical Outlook: The stock looks very good on the
review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
daily chart for medium-term investment. It trades in a
while the stock is still in an uptrend.
downward channel pattern on the daily chart and faces
strong resistance of its 100 DMA level placed at Rs.185. This low risk, high return product is available for online
This counter will witness a good rally on crossing this subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
level with volumes. Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
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to Rs.150 for medium-to-long-term investment and a
possible price target of Rs.205+ in the next 12 months.

******
Siemens Ltd
(BSE Code: 500550) (CMP: Rs.1264.20) (FV: Rs.2) (TGT: Rs.1500+)
Incorporated in 1867, Mumbai-based Siemens Ltd (a subsidiary of Siemens Aktiengesellschaft) manufactures and sells
electric motors, generators, transformers, electricity distribution and control apparatus, electric signaling, safety or

A Time Communications Publication 10


traffic-control equipment and general purpose machinery. Its ‘Power and Gas (PG)’ segment offers products and
solutions for generating electricity from fossil and renewable fuels for utilities; independent power producers; and
engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) companies as well as for transportation of oil and natural gas. Its
‘Energy Management (EM)’ segment supplies solutions for the transmission and distribution of electrical energy. It
offers systems for low-voltage and distribution grids; solutions for smart grids; and energy automation and power
supply systems for industrial plants and high-voltage transmission systems. Its ‘Building Technologies (BT)’ segment
offers fire safety, security, building automation, heating, ventilation, air conditioning and energy management services.
Its ‘Mobility’ segment provides solutions for passenger and freight transportation including rail vehicles, rail automation
systems, rail electrification systems, road traffic technology and IT solutions. Its ‘Digital Factory (DF)’ segment offers
software solutions and automation technologies for manufacturing companies. Its ‘Process Industries and Drives (PID)’
segment offers products, systems, solutions and services across life cycles for various industry sectors.
Siemens reported better-than-expected operational performance. Its revenues grew 6% YoY to Rs.24.3 bn, driven by
21% YoY growth in EM and 14% growth in DF. EBITDA rose by 102 bps to 11.2% while PAT jumped 19% YoY to Rs.1.9
bn. Order intake improved by 2.1% YoY to Rs.32.6 bn. Order flows continue to be driven primarily from digitalization
and infrastructure projects. Despite the consistent growth in order inflows, the order backlog of Rs.132 bn (1xFY18E
sales) is not adequate for revenue visibility. It needs strong order flows in the next 3-4 quarters to maintain its revenue
and profitability growth trajectory in FY19E and FY20E.
Except for EM and DF, Siemens reported lower
revenues across all other segments - PG (Rs.2.9 bn, -
14% YoY); BT (Rs.0.9 bn, -4% YoY); Mobility (Rs.2
bn, -30% YoY); and PID (Rs.4.0 bn, -27% YoY). The FOR WEEKLY GAINS
EM and DF segments reported 21% and 14% YoY
growth in revenue to Rs.10.3 bn and Rs.5 bn
Fast...Focused…First
respectively. Margins expanded in the following Fresh One Up Trend Weekly
segments - EM (10.6%, +386 bps YoY), BT (7.3%,
A product designed for short-term trading
+161 bps YoY) and DF (8.1%, +320 bps YoY). EBIT
singling out one stock to focus upon.
margin contracted in PG (18.1%, -69 bps YoY) and
Mobility (5.6%,-369 bps YoY). The PID segment Fresh One Up Trend Weekly (formerly Power of RS Weekly)
reported a loss at the EBIT level. Other income grew will identify the stop loss, buy price range and profit
to Rs.705 mn (+13% YoY). Order intake for the booking levels along with its relative strength, weekly
quarter grew 2.1% YoY to Rs.32.6 bn. reversal value and the start date of the trend or the
turndown exit signals. This recommendation will be
Technical Outlook: The stock looks very good on
followed up in the subsequent week with the revised levels
the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has for each trading parameter.
formed an inverted head & shoulder pattern. This is
the right time to accumulate the stock for good Subscription: Rs.2000 per month or Rs.18000 per annum
returns in the coming month since it finds strong Available via email
support of its 100 EMA at Rs.1235. The stock trades For a free trial call us on 022-22616970 or email at
above its 200 DMA level on the weekly chart. moneytimes.support@gmail.com
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.1264.20 and on
dips to Rs.1210 for medium-to-long-term
investment and a possible price target of Rs.1500+ in the next 12 months.

STOCK BUZZ
Stock Buzz

JHS Svendgaard Laboratories Ltd: Profiting from oral care


(BSE Code: 532771) (CMP: Rs.66.35) (FV: Rs.10)
By Subramanian Mahadevan
JHS Svendgaard Laboratories Ltd (JHS) started as a toothbrush manufacturer in 1997 and gradually ventured into
toothpastes and other oral products with manufacturing locations in North India. It is primarily engaged in the
manufacture of oral care products such as toothpaste, toothbrushes, whitening gels, whitening mouth rinse and
effervescent tablets. Its anchor-free technology enabled toothbrush machine has been imported from Belgium while
state-of-the-art toothpaste manufacturing machinery has been imported from Korea and Sweden.

A Time Communications Publication 11


JHS hit the capital market in 2006 with its IPO priced at Rs.58/share, which was oversubscribed two times. During
Q3FY18, it reported PAT of Rs.3.22 crore (Rs.1.71 crore) on sales of Rs.43.03 crore (Rs.22.72 crore). In terms of sectoral
opportunity, the total size of the Indian oral care market is ~Rs.9000 crore is dominated by toothpaste (75% share,
Rs.6750 crore) and toothbrush (17% share, Rs.1500 crore). The toothpaste segment is dominated by key incumbents –
Colgate (55.6% market share), HUL (19.2%) and Dabur (15.5%). With over 300 million Indians without any access to
oral care products, Colgate has cornered this population by reaching out to 125 million school children across the
country. Second movers like JHS will largely benefit from the huge groundwork undertaken by Colgate to develop and
expand this category.
From a near-death experience and litigation issues resulting in a one-time settlement with Procter & Gamble, JHS has
emerged stronger over the last decade and has reinvented itself in a new avatar by launching its own branded products
to garner a larger pie in the oral care segment. It has won multi-year marquee clients like Dabur, Patanjali, etc. It has
enhanced its toothpaste manufacturing capacity to 175 million tubes from 90 million tubes, which is now aligned with
its manufacturing cum packaging capacity of 28,000 TPA.
Investors should participate in the growth cum turn-around story of JHS considering the tailwinds of the secular oral
care sector growth, improving market share of the company and capacity expansion. Buy on every decline for good
double-digit returns within two years.

STOCK ANALYSIS

Damodar Industries Ltd


(BSE Code: 521220) (CMP: Rs.142.55) (FV: Rs.10)
By Rahul Sharma
Damodar Industries Ltd (Damodar) was incorporated in 1987 to manufacture synthetic blended yarns by setting up a
unit at Daman for twisting and doubling of synthetic yarn. At present, it is engaged in spinning, draw–texturizing, air–
texturizing, fancy doubling and yarn dyeing through its in–house manufacturing operations. Its core products include
Cotton yarn, Fancy yarn, Blended Fancy Yarn, Spun yarn, etc. It offers blended–fibre and novelty yarns at affordable
prices. Its ring spinning plant produces high quality yarns through slubs, neps, injected slubs, multicolour effects and
grindle effects.
Opportunities:
 With 50-60% lower average wage rates than the developed countries, India benefits from global outsourcing trends
in labor intensive businesses such as garments and home textiles.
 Rising per capita income, favorable demographics, shift in preference to branded products, favorable trade policies,
superior quality exports and favorable government policies will boost the industry.
 Design and fashion capabilities are the key strengths that enable Indian players to strengthen their relationship with
global retailers and score over their Chinese competitors. The industry is investing in technology and increasing
capacities, which will prove to be a major asset in the years to come.
Threats:
 China is currently carrying high cost Seminars on Financial Literacy Stock Market
cotton inventory effecting a change in
Place Date Time Venue Seminar on
its cotton policy. Rising cost of
production and net margins are low for Unchgaon 18/02/2018 12.15 p.m. Taaleem Mandal, Stock Market
the Indian textile industry. (Kolhapur) Unchgaon, Dist. awareness, Demat,
Kolhapur Mutual Fund, SIP,
 Import of second-hand textile SEBI, Investor
machineries has hit the local textile protection etc
industry. Devrukh 22/02/2018 11 a.m. (Dist. Ratnagiri) Cashless
 In the Indian textile industry, casual (Ratnagiri) RMCET College,, Transactions: Why &
workers constitute over 90% of the Devrukh, Dist. How , Bhim, POS,
labour force resulting in a shortage of Ratnagiri Wallet Money
skilled workers at the national level. A Chandrashekhar Thakur: CDSL BO Protection Fund. Tel: 9820389051;
significant proportion of workers are csthakur@cdslindia.com / csthakur1302@gmail.com;
illiterate or less educated and they th
BSE Building, 16 Floor, Dalal Street, Fort, Mumbai - 400001

A Time Communications Publication 12


need a formal training system.
Industry Overview: India is among the leading producers of textiles in the world. Changing lifestyle, rising incomes and
rising demand for quality products are set to fuel the demand for textile products across the globe. The textile sector
contributes 14% to the industrial production, 4% to the country’s GDP and 15% to the country's export earnings. India’s
cotton production during 2016-17 is estimated to be 351 lakh bales according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI).
Performance Financials: (Rs. in crore)
Review:
Particulars Q3FY18 Q2FY18 QoQ (%) Q3FY17 YoY (%) FY17 FY16 YoY (%)
During Q3FY18, Total Income 155.54 150.90 3.07% 168.99 -7.95% 704.28 620.95 13.41%
Damodar EBITDA 9.47 8.43 12.33% 9.28 2.04% 37.59 40.68 -7.60%
posted
PAT 3.69 2.91 26.80% 2.06 79.12% 8.87 10.39 -14.62%
revenues of
EPS 3.32 2.62 - 1.85 - 7.97 9.34 -
Rs.155.54 crore
(up 3% QoQ and down 8% YoY). PAT jumped 27% QoQ and 79% YoY to Rs.3.69 crore mainly on the back of higher
inventory and finished goods. We expect such strong performance to continue in coming quarters on account of higher
demand and stabilizing cotton prices, which will boost production.
At the CMP of Rs.142.55, the Damodar stock trades at a P/E of 14.09x on its EPS (TTM) of Rs.10.12. Although the
Damodar share seems overpriced compared to the industry P/E of 9x, it is cheaper compared to the S&P BSE 250 Small-
Cap P/E of 83.44x and Nifty Small-Cap 250 P/E of 100x. We have a Buy on the stock with a price target of Rs.300 in the
long-term.

MARKET REVIEW

Equity markets settle flat


By Devendra A Singh Relative Strength (RS)
The Sensex closed 5 points higher to settle at 34010.76 while the signals a stock’s ability to perform in a
Nifty closed 2.65 points lower at 10452.3 for the week ending dynamic market.
Friday, 16 February 2018. Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
On India’s macro-economic front, Consumer Price Index (CPI)
climbed to 5.07% in January 2018 from 5.21% in December 2017 POWER OF RS - Rs.3100 for 1 year:
and 3.17% in January 2017. Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) fell
What you get -
to 4.7% in January 2018 from 4.96% in December 2017 and
0.61% in January 2017. Health segment inflation was at 4.88%. Most Important- Association for 1 year
Wholesale Price Inflation (WPI) was marked at 2.84% in January at just Rs.3100!
2018 from 3.58% in in December 2017 and 4.26% in January
2017. 1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
Primary articles inflation was at 2.37% in January 2018 v/s 3.86% 1 buy per week
in December 2017. Manufactured Products Inflation was at 2.78% 1 buy per month
in January 2018. Fuel and power segment inflation was at 4.08% 1 buy per quarter
in January 2018 v/s 9.16% in December 2017. 1 buy per year
Food inflation registered for January 2018 was 3% v/s 4.72% in For more details, contact Money Times on
December 2017. Vegetable inflation came in at 40.77% v/s 022-22616970/4805 or
56.46% in December 2017. moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for December 2017 was at
130.3, lower than 8.8% recorded in November 2017. However, the
cumulative growth for the April-December 2017 period over the previous corresponding period stands at 3.7%. IIP for
the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for December 2017 stand at 115.5, 131.6 and 143.9 respectively with
the corresponding growth rates of 1.2%, 8.4% and 4.4% as compared to December 2016.
The seasonally adjusted Nikkei Services Business Activity Index was at 51.7 in January 2018, up from 50.9 in December
2017, signalling a faster expansion albeit one that remained below the long-run survey average. The Nikkei Composite
Output Index dropped to 52.5 from 53 over the same period.
The trade deficit jumped 64.6% to $16.30 bn in January 2018 from $9.9 bn in January 2017.

A Time Communications Publication 13


Moody’s Investors Service
believes that India’s budget for MID-CAP TWINS
FY19 strikes a balance between A Performance Review
fiscal prudence and growth. A Have a look at the grand success story of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ launched on 1st August 2016
slight slippage in the budget Sr. Scrip Name Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
deficit targets has no material No. Date Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
impact on the country’s overall 1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12
fiscal strength. 2 Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 477 42
William Foster, Moody’s VP and 3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226 51
Senior Credit Officer, cited that 4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 293.70 110
the revised fiscal consolidation
path is modestly shallower than 5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137.00 355.70 160
the previous roadmap but does 6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447.00 1455.40 226
not fundamentally alter India’s 7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178 28
overall fiscal strength. 8 APM Industries 01-11-16 67.10 84.40 26
Furthermore, the medium-term
9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1620 100
target to reduce the central
government debt-to-GDP ratio to 10 Prism Cement 01-12-16 93.25 129.80 39
40% is supportive of the 11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 266.50 46
sovereign credit profile. 12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 204 32
The Agency also expects the 13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17 191.55 278.50 45
government to meet next year’s 14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17
deficit target based on
856.50 1421 66
achievable budget assumptions 15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17 171.75 248.30 45
and demonstrated commitment 16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191.00 247 29
to fiscal prudence. However, 17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1869 29
some ambitious revenue 18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17 142.25 272.90 92
assumptions and uncertainty
about some spending items 19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 540 143
could result in a shortfall to the 20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 734.90 64
overall fiscal consolidation. 21 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries 01-06-17 501.40 590.75 18
“The projected expenditure 22 Ujjivan Financial Services 01-06-17 307.45 417.40 36
restraint and strong revenue 23 Ashok Leyland 01-07-17 93.85 133 42
growth are likely to be broadly
24 KSB Pumps 01-07-17 759.55 931 23
achieved although some
measures such as the rule 25 IRB Infrastructure Developers 01-08-17 224.95 251 12
guiding increases in Minimum 26 JTL Infra 01-08-17 70 125 79
Support Prices (MSPs) and 27 Stock ‘A’ 01-09-17 187.40 308.90 65
ambitious GST revenue targets 28 Stock ‘B’ 01-09-17
could result in some further
271.20 317 17
slippage”, said Foster. 29 Stock ‘C’ 01-10-17 73.65 89.25 21
The budget assumes 11.5% 30 Stock ‘D’ 01-10-17 74.10 91.35 23
nominal GDP growth for FY19, 31 Stock ‘E’ 01-11-17 206 218.95 6
which is in line with Moody’s 32 Stock ‘F’ 01-11-17 38 57.90 52
forecast. Sustained high nominal Thus ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ has delivered excellent results since its launch with majority of
GDP growth will depend on the stocks gaining over 30%.
recovery of the private
investment cycle, which in turn Latest edition of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ was released on 1 February 2018.
will be contingent upon the
Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
successful implementation of the
‘Mid-cap Twins’ will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
current and future reforms.
The infrastructure sector will benefit from a boost in spending and the government’s continued focus on public
investment will also help galvanize India’s upturn in capital spending, agency added.

A Time Communications Publication 14


The Finance Minister in his Budget speech said that in order to impart unquestionable credibility to the government’s
commitment for the revised fiscal glide path, he is proposing to accept key recommendations of the Fiscal Reform and
Budget Management (FRBM) Committee relating to adoption of the Debt Rule and to bring down the central
government’s Debt to GDP ratio to 40%.
“The government has also accepted the recommendation to use Fiscal Deficit target as the key operational parameter.
Necessary amendment proposals are included in the Finance Bill”, the FM added.
Key index advanced on Monday, 12 February 2018, on fresh buying of equities. The Sensex surged 294.71 points
(+0.87%) to close at 34300.47.
The Indian stock markets remained closed on Tuesday, 13 February 2018, on account of Maha Shivaratri.
Key index registered losses on Wednesday, 14 February 2018, as banking stocks crashed when PNB perceived a bad-
loan fraud of $1771.69 mn (~Rs.11300 crore) from Nirav Modi. The Sensex tanked 144.52 points (-0.42%) to close at
34155.95.
Key index ended higher on Thursday, 15 February 2018, on buying of equities. The Sensex was up 141.52 points (-
0.41%) to close at 34297.47.
Key index fell on Friday, 16 February 2018, due to the banking chaos. The Sensex was down 286.71 points (-0.84%) to
close at 34010.76.
Events like national and global macro-economic figures as well as the earnings season will dictate the movement of the
markets and influence investor sentiment in the near future.
The February 2018 F&O contracts expire on Thursday, 22 February 2018.
On the global front, US macro data for January 2018 is scheduled for release in the coming weeks of February 2018.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Sell on rise
By Rohan Nalavade
The market is in a downtrend for the month of February 2018. The Nifty has lost almost 700 points at 10452 from its
high of 11160. Bank Nifty is leading the downtrend as PSU Banks like State Bank of India and Allahabad Bank have
reported disappointing figures for the quarter. Moreover, the Punjab National Bank fraud has sent a bad signal for the
banking sector and spoilt the overall market sentiment.
The Nifty is moving in a range of 10400-600 and is unable Free 2-day trial of Live Market Calls
to sustain at higher levels of 10560-600. Selling pressure is A running commentary of intra-day trading
seen and, therefore, it may be prudent to sell on rise. Avoid recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
buying at the moment or accumulate quality stocks from on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
Nifty 50 in small quantities at every 3% decline. If the Nifty
pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
breaks 10400, it may test 10200-10100 levels. Only a close
Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
above 10600 can change the trend to bullish.
moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
Among stocks,
 Sun Pharmaceutical Industries is a ‘sell’ below Rs.577 for a target of Rs.570-565 (SL: Rs.584);
 Axis Bank is a ‘sell’ below Rs.540 for a target of Rs.530-520 (SL: Rs.551);
 Vedanta is a ‘sell’ below Rs.322 for a target of Rs.315-310-305 (SL: Rs.325).

PRESS RELEASE

HG Infra IPO opens on 26th February


HG Infra Engineering Ltd (HG Infra) plans to raise up to Rs.462 crore through its IPO in the price band of Rs.263-270 for
its Rs.10 paid-up equity share. The IPO comprises a fresh issue of equity shares of up to Rs.300 crore and an offer for
sale (OFS) of up to 6,000,000 equity shares by the selling shareholders. The IPO proceeds will be utilised towards
purchasing capital equipment, repayment/ prepayment of certain debts and general corporate purposes. The issue
opens on Monday, 26 February and will close on Wednesday, 28 February 2018.

A Time Communications Publication 15


HG Infra provides engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services on a fixed-sum turnkey basis and
undertakes civil construction and related infrastructure projects on item rate and lump sum basis, primarily in the roads
and highway sector. It has also forayed into the execution of water pipeline projects. For FY17, it reported revenues of
Rs.1058.58 crore (Rs.743.28 crore) and PAT of Rs.53.33 crore (Rs.35.35 crore).
*****

Sinclairs Hotels PAT up 38%


For 9MFY18, Sinclairs Hotels reported a Total Income of Rs.3667.37 lakh (Rs.3628.62 lakh) and PAT of Rs.1015.02 lakh
(Rs.733.53 lakh). During Q3FY18, Total Income stood at Rs.1180.31 lakh (Rs.1373.87 lakh) while PAT stood at Rs.234.68
lakh (Rs.346.31 lakh). The Company has strong fundamentals. It has an equity capital of Rs.557 lakh. It is debt-free and
has a cash surplus of over Rs.4000 lakh invested in various money market instruments for future expansion or
acquisitions.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Security & Intelligence Services (India) Ltd: For hefty gains


(BSE Code: 540673) (CMP: Rs.1130.30) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1985 by Ravindra Sinha and Rituraj Sinha, Security & Intelligence Services (India) Ltd (SIS) is a leading
security services company in India and Australia with leadership positions in cash logistics and facility management
services. It provides security solutions including planning and deployment of security guards, security officers, armed
guards, firemen, dog handlers, consulting, investigation works and command and control centre employees. It provides
paramedic and allied health, mobile patrol and fire rescue services, electronic security solution, alarm monitoring and
control, housekeeping and pest control services. Its 1,08,627 security personnel service 3,000+ customers across 9,500+
locations. Its key customers in India include businesses in varied sectors such as automobile, BFSI, IT/ ITES and telecom,
steel and heavy industries, government undertakings, hospitality and real estate, educational institutions, healthcare,
consumer goods, engineering and construction.
SIS tapped the capital market in July 2017 with an
IPO of Rs.362.25 crore at Rs.815/share. Besides the One more successful year for TF+ subscribers…
fresh issue, it also made an offer for sale (OFS) of
51.2 lakh equity shares by the selling shareholders.
What TF+ subscribers say:
It raised Rs.350.8 crore from 18 anchor investors “Think Investment… Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS”
ahead of its IPO.
Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
SIS derives its revenue from three major segments column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
- security services (87.5%), cash logistics (3.8%)
and facility management services (8.7%). In the Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
security services segment, security services (India) returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
contributes 34.9% while security services
(Australia) contributes 52.6% of the total revenue. Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
In the facility management segment, cleaning & our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit in
facility operation and management contributes 125 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss.
8.5% while pest control contributes 0.2% to the
total revenue. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 1
SIS ventured to Australia by acquiring Chubb January 2018 (52 weeks), we booked 7-41% profit in 119 stocks,
24 triggered the stop loss of 2-18% while 13 are still open. Out of
Security Services business in August 2008. 13, 11 stocks are in green & 2 stocks are in nominal red.
Between FY13 and FY17, its revenue from
operations from the security services business in If you want to earn like this,
Australia grew at 7.7% CAGR. subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
In June 2017, SIS signed definitive agreements to
increase its voting rights in Southern Cross For more details, contact Money Times on
022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Protection Pty Ltd (SXP) from 10% to 51% with
effect from 1 July 2017. The company, through its Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
100% subsidiary, SIS Australia Group, acquired an 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.

A Time Communications Publication 16


additional 41% of the voting rights in SXP. As a result, SXP is now its subsidiary.
SIS provides a full range of services across all market segments in Australia ranging from providing trained security
personnel for general guarding to specialized security roles. It provides static guarding including access control and
control room monitoring, aviation and maritime screening, centralized video surveillance, alarm monitoring and
response, roving and mobile patrols, escort guards, emergency response, planning, first aid and medical support, traffic
management, customer service security training, risk analysis, consulting, concierge and event management services. It
provides security services to several government organizations in Australia. Its top ten customers in Australia have been
its customers for over five years and together accounted for 42.8% of its revenue from operations for FY17.
SIS has entered into strategic
relationships with several multinational
companies. It entered into a JV with the
affiliates of Prosegur Compañía de
Seguridad, S.A (Prosegur), a global player
in cash management and alarm
monitoring, for its cash logistics and
alarm monitoring and response
businesses. It also entered into a JV with
an affiliate of Terminix International
Company, L.P. (Terminix), a
multinational provider of termite and
pest control services.
For FY17, SIS posted PAT of Rs.110.6
crore with an EPS of Rs.16. During
Q3FY18, net profit zoomed 113% to
Rs.46.5 crore on 35% higher revenue of
Rs.1537.7 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.6.3.
Its Australia business contribution to
overall EBITDA grew to 44% in Q3FY18
from 38% in Q1FY18 due to further
stake acquisition in SXP. During 9MFY18,
net profit zoomed 145% to Rs.127 crore
on 35% higher revenue of Rs.4241 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.18.1.
With an equity capital of Rs.73.2 crore
and reserves of Rs.1073 crore, its
consolidated share book value works out
to Rs.145 as at 9MFY18. Total debts as at
H1FY18 were Rs.866 crore. With cash of
Rs.470 crore and other financial assets of
Rs.155 crore, its net debt stands at
Rs.241 crore and net DER works out to
0.23:1. The promoters hold 75.5% of the
equity capital, foreign entities hold 5.7%
and DIs hold 4.8%, which leaves 14%
stake with the investing public.
Globally, the demand for private contract
security services is likely to grow 7.4%
annually to reach $250 bn by 2017. This
market is currently growing at 5.4%
CAGR in Australia. The market size is
expected to jump to $2.88 bn by 2020
from $2.46 bn now.

A Time Communications Publication 17


The pipeline for SIS’ security business in India is very strong with decent visibility for Q4FY18/Q1FY19. SIS is the second
largest security services provider in India and is just Rs.300-400 crore smaller than its largest competitor in revenue
terms. It is focused on improving its margin profile in line with those reported by its competitor.
There is no direct comparable listed company. However, Quess Corp (largest IT staff augmentation provider and 3rd
largest general staffing provider in India) trades at a P/E of 50.14x while Teamlease Services (market leader in
providing temporary staffing services to various industries) trades at a P/E of 41.31x.
SIS has a strong deal pipeline acquisition funding of Rs.1000 crore at an average cost of less than 7.5%: (1) Rs.400 crore
as NCD/senior secured debt; and (2) AUD120 mn revolving debt raised in Australia, to be serviced by the local entity.
This funding will be deployed to acquire businesses related to the service segments in India.
SIS is likely to garner an EPS of Rs.28 in FY18, Rs.36 in FY19 and Rs.44 in FY20. At the CMP of Rs.1130.30, the stock
trades at a forward P/E of 40.3x on FY18E, 31.3x on FY19E and 25.6x on FY20E earnings. Based on its bright future
prospects, the stock has the potential to cross Rs.2000 in the long-term.
********

Vindhya Telelinks Ltd: Ringing gains


(BSE Code: 517015) (CMP: Rs.1155.60) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1983 by the M.P. Birla group, Vindhya Telelinks Ltd (VTL) manufactures a wide variety of cables for the
high-end market of specialized electrical cables and electron beam irradiated cross-linked cables. The market for such
cables is growing rapidly due to the exacting technical requirements of new applications and the gradual transition from
conventional cables to the new genre of electron beam irradiated cables, particularly in the market segment of solar
energy (DC solar cables), railways, ship building, etc.
VTL was set up as a public private joint venture (JV) between Universal Cables Ltd and the Madhya Pradesh State
Industrial Development Corp. It has three subsidiaries— August Agents Ltd, Insilco Agents Ltd and Laneseda Agents Ltd.
It has JVs with (i) Birla Ericsson Optical Ltd to manufacture optical fibre cables (OFCs); (ii) Ericsson Cables AB, Sweden,
to manufacture and sell telecommunication cables; and (iii) Visabeira Global SGPS, SA, Portugal for EPC services. Its
clients in the cables segment include BSNL, MTNL, Bharti Airtel, Reliance Communications, NTPC, Indian Railways, the
defence sector, SAIL, Tata Teleservices, etc. It is a preferred vendor of Bharti Airtel and Tata for Copper Telephone
Cables and OFCs. It offers products to the Railways, Defence, Coalfields, SAIL and Atomic Energy, among others. It
exports to Europe, the Middle East and SAARC countries such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.
In a bid to forge ahead strongly into the future, VTL has put in place an EPC division that provides complete turnkey
solutions including trenching, laying, jointing and installation of telecom cables. It offers complete turnkey services for
engineering, design, supply, construction, installation, testing and commissioning for the Telecom and Power sectors
besides gas pipeline projects and LED lighting solutions. Its EPC division contributes 75% to its total revenue.
For FY17, VTL’s net profit fell 13% to Rs.67.2 crore on 5% higher sales of Rs.1033.3 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.73.2 and
a dividend of 70% was paid. During Q3FY18, net profit soared 55% to Rs.16.6 crore on 55% higher sales of Rs.320 crore.
During 9MFY18, net profit jumped 37% to Rs.56.7 crore on 35% higher sales of Rs.917 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.47.8.
With an equity capital of Rs.11.8 crore and reserves of Rs.563 crore, VTL’s share book value works out to Rs.485. Total
debts are Rs.390 crore. With Cash, short-term and long-term loans, etc. of Rs.313 crore, net debt works out to Rs.77
crore and net DER stands at 0.13:1.
VTL along with its subsidiaries holds substantial stake in group companies - Birla Corp and Universal Cables, the market
value of which is currently ~Rs.2600 crore or Rs.2185/share. The promoters hold 43.52% of the equity capital, which
leaves 56.48% stake with the investing public.
VTL has completed substantial expansion-cum-diversification of its existing copper cable facility at Rewa for
manufacturing electron beam irradiated cross-linked cables including installation of electron beam accelerators of
appropriate rated capacity at an estimated cost of Rs.32.8 crore to be funded by a mix of internal accruals and debt.
All high speed data centric applications in both 3G and 4G LTE Networks invariably warrant the use of OFCs, which are
deployed in the network thereby driving the demand for OFCs in a big way. Even the cell towers need to be connected
with OFCs with requisite bandwidth capability.
VTL has ventured into lucrative sewage projects to be laid through trenchless technology (HDD method) and expects
good business volumes in this vertical. In the Power division, it has a reasonably good order book and targets
prestigious projects from various government agencies in the ensuing financial year.

A Time Communications Publication 18


To achieve better value addition in certain niche telecommunication cable products, VTL has equipped itself by
supplying connectorised assemblies for various carrier network applications and is geared to meet the spiralling
demand for such products in the domestic and overseas markets. It envisages a new stream of revenue from Fibre-To-
The-Home (FTH) and last mile connectivity cable products, the full benefits of which will accrue going forward.
Various government reforms such as the Smart Cities project, expansion of ICT and Broadband Networks, etc. will boost
this sector. Technology-oriented project initiatives will enable VTL to leverage the strengths both of its manufacturing
and services business segments.
Going by its expansion initiatives, VTL is set to post a consolidated EPS of Rs.88 in FY18 and Rs.96 in FY19. At the CMP of
Rs.1155.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 13.1x on FY18E and 12x on FY19E earnings. A reasonable P/E of 15x
will take its share price to Rs.1320 in the medium-term and Rs.1440 thereafter. The stock’s 52-week high/low is
Rs.1472/597.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Dynamic Industries Ltd  Sadhana Nitrochem recommended at
Rs.70 on 4 September 2017, zoomed to
(BSE Code: 524818) (CMP: Rs.96.75) (FV: Rs.10) Rs.218.75 last week appreciating 213% in
We had recommended this stock at Rs.70.85 on 18 September 2017, 5.5 months.
where-after it zoomed to Rs.117.60 in a very short time. We recommend  Damodar Industries recommended at
this stock once again based on its excellent Q3 results. Rs.99 on 28 August 2017, zoomed to
Founded in 1989, Dynamic Industries Ltd (DIL) manufactures and sells Rs.157 last week appreciating 59% in 5.5
months.
dyes, chemicals and pigments. It is situated at Gujarat Industrial
Development Corporation (GIDC), Vatva in Ahmedabad. Its product  ITL Industries recommended at Rs.45.5 on
palette primarily includes acid, direct and reactive dyes, which are a 14 March 2016, zoomed to Rs.352.15 last
week appreciating 674% within 2 years.
benchmark in quality. It exports to Germany, USA, South Korea, China,
Taiwan, Italy, Turkey, Switzerland, Russia, Pakistan, Spain, Brazil and
Argentina.
With an equity capital of Rs.3.03 crore and reserves Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
of Rs.19.20 crore, its share book value works out to Particulars Q3FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17
Rs.73.4 and its P/BV ratio stands at 1.32x, which is Sales 13.69 10.20 40.07 34.73 46.26
attractive for this sector. The promoters hold
PBT 1.19 0.52 2.89 1.95 2.56
48.77% of the equity capital, which leaves 51.23%
Tax 0.35 0.17 0.88 0.66 0.78
stake with the investing public. Renowned small-
cap investor Subramanian P. holds 4.68% stake in PAT 0.84 0.35 2.01 1.29 1.78
the company. EPS (in Rs.) 2.77 1.16 6.64 4.25 5.87
During Q3FY18, DIL reported 140% higher PAT at Rs.0.84 crore on 34% higher sales of Rs.13.69 crore fetching an EPS of
Rs.2.77. During 9MFY18, PAT soared 56% to Rs.2.01 crore on 15% higher sales of Rs.40.07 crore fetching an EPS of
Rs.6.64. Its PAT for 9MFY18 was higher than the PAT recorded in FY17 PAT. It paid 10% dividend for FY17.
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 11.73x. Based on its performance parameters, the stock looks quite attractive for
investment at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.82. On the upper side, it could zoom to
Rs.135-150 levels in the medium-to-long-term.
*******

Rishiroop Ltd
(BSE Code: 526492) (CMP: Rs.128.25) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1984, Mumbai-based Rishiroop Ltd manufactures and sells polymer blends for rubber and plastic
industries. It was formed as a result of the merger between Puneet Resins Ltd and Rishiroop Rubber (International) Ltd.
Its polymer blends are used to manufacture petrol hoses, LPG tubing, O-rings, seals and gaskets, printing and textile
rollers, cable sheathing, automotive components, etc. It also trades in synthetic rubber and other complementary
products. It also exports its products.
Rishiroop has an equity capital of Rs.9.7 crore supported by reserves of Rs.46.08 crore. The promoters hold 70.26% of
the equity capital, which leaves 29.74% stake with the investing public.

A Time Communications Publication 19


During Q3FY18, Rishiroop posted 143% higher Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
PAT at Rs.3.09 crore on higher sales of Rs.13.88 Particulars Q3FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17
crore fetching an EPS of Rs.3.19. During 9MFY18,
Sales 13.88 12.50 45.56 31.82 46.70
PAT zoomed 261% to Rs.8.67 crore on 44% higher
PBT 3.92 1.80 11.24 3.20 4.88
sales of Rs.45.56 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.8.94.
Its 9MFY18 PAT was higher than the PAT reported Tax 0.83 0.54 2.57 0.80 1.39
for FY17. It paid 10% dividend for FY17. PAT 3.09 1.27 8.67 2.40 3.49
EPS (in Rs.) 3.19 1.79 8.94 3.39 4.60
The stock currently trades at a P/E of 12.75x.
Based on its performance parameters, the stock looks quite attractive for investment at the current level. Investors can
buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.112. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.165-175 levels in medium-to-long-term.

BULL’S EYE

Safari Industries (India) Ltd REVIEW


(BSE Code: 523025) (CMP: Rs.536.65) (FV: Rs.2)  Mirc Electronics recommended at Rs.51.05 on 5
February 2018, zoomed to Rs.58.55 last week
By Pratit Nayan Patel appreciating 15% in just 2 weeks!
Company Background: Incorporated in 1980, Mumbai-based
 InterGlobe Aviation recommended at Rs.1133.85 on
Safari Industries (India) Ltd (Safari) manufactures and trades 18 December 2017, zoomed to Rs.1302.45 last week
in luggage and luggage accessories. Its products include wheel appreciating 15% in 2 months!
upright trolleys, duffles and rolling duffles; business cases,
 KEC International recommended at Rs.313.85 on 4
laptop satchels and tablet sleeves; casual and formal December 2017 and once again at Rs.358.3 last
backpacks and backpack trolleys as well as travel essentials week, zoomed to Rs.408.80 appreciating 30% in 2.5
and foldables. It operates through retail stores and also months and 14% in just 1 week!
through an e-commerce channel. It manufactures hard luggage  Firstsource Solutions recommended at Rs.42.60 on
mainly made of Poly Propylene (PP) and Poly Carbonate (PC) 27 November 2017, zoomed to Rs.50.2 last week
at its plant in Halol, Gujarat. It mainly imports soft luggage, appreciating 18% in 2.5 months!
which are made of various fabrics.  Bharat Forge recommended at Rs.599.8 on 2
Financials: Safari has an equity capital of just Rs.4.15 crore October 2017, zoomed to Rs.783.30 last week
supported by huge reserves of Rs.95.82 crore. The promoters appreciating 31% in 4.5 months!
hold 57.8% of the equity capital, Malabar India Fund holds
5.9%, Malabar Value Fund holds 1.19% and Tano India Pvt Equity Fund holds 18.65%, which leaves 16.46% stake with
the investing public.
Performance Review: For FY17, Safari posted 27% higher PAT of Rs.9.84 crore on 29% higher sales of Rs.358.74 crore
fetching an EPS of Rs.4.74. During Q3FY18, PAT zoomed 118% to Rs.6.78 crore from Rs.3.11 crore in Q3FY17 on higher
sales of Rs.103.44 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.3.11. During 9MFY18, PAT zoomed 115% to Rs.13.55 crore from Rs.6.29
crore in 9MFY17 on higher sales of Rs.296.08 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.6.43.
Dividend: Safari is an
investor-friendly company. Performance Review: (Rs. in crore)
It paid 20% dividend for Particulars Standalone Consolidated
FY17, 12% for FY16 and Q3FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY17 9MFY18 9MFY17 FY17 FY16
10% for FY15. Total Income 103.44 88.16 95.30 296.08 261.04 358.74 278.52
Industry Overview: The
PBT 9.90 6.13 4.62 20.96 9.42 14.95 12.01
industry is expected to
grow on the back of rising Tax 3.13 2.62 1.50 7.40 3.13 5.11 4.20
consumer demand fueled PAT 6.78 3.51 3.11 13.55 6.29 9.84 7.75
by increased air travel, EPS (Rs.) 3.11 1.69 1.4 6.43 2.82 4.74 3.73
continuous shift of
consumer preference from unbranded to branded products, wedding season based purchasing, change in lifestyle and
improvement in the standard of living, rising disposable income, rising urbanization and the government's focus on
promoting tourism.
Good growth is being seen across channels and product categories. Hyper market and e-commerce channels continue to
grow strongly mainly due to a better and more convenient shopping experience. According to World Travel & Tourism
Council, the travel and tourism industry generated $7.6 tn i.e. 10.2% of the global GDP. The outlook for this sector

A Time Communications Publication 20


remains robust and will continue to be at the forefront of wealth and employment creation in the global economy. Direct
travel and tourism GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8%, up from 3.1% in 2016.
Conclusion: Safari posted excellent results for Q3FY18 and it is likely to retain such high earnings growth for at least a
couple of years. Canteen Stores Department (CSD) as a channel continues to lose its dependency on Safari’s revenue
generation. Its contribution to revenues will decline to less than 30-25% from around ~60% while non-CSD,
hypermarket/e-commerce will gain strongly. Non-CSD has higher margins and hence, a margin expansion from this
point onwards is imminent. We believe that because of the improved product mix not only margins but also receivable
to sales % will improve significantly. Safari posted net margins of 6.5% in Q3FY18, which will be more or less in this
range
because of higher turnover ratio which will compensate for the price differentials with the VIP brand.
At the CMP, the Safari share trades at a P/E of 70.33x. Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive
for investment at the current level. Investors can accumulate this stock on dips with a stop loss of Rs.470 for a price
target of Rs.735-750 in the next 9-12 months. The stock’s 52-week high/low is Rs.664/205 and its market cap stands at
Rs.1194.05 crore.

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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any lia bility for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
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A Time Communications Publication 21


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A Time Communications Publication 22

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