El Nin 0 O Timings and Rainfall Extremes in India, Southeast Asia and China

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
Int. J. Climatol. 19: 653–672 (1999)
EL NIN0 O TIMINGS AND RAINFALL EXTREMES IN INDIA,

SOUTHEAST ASIA AND CHINA
R.P. KANE*
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias (INPE), Caixa Postal 515, 12201 -970, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Recei6ed 5 February 1998

Re6ised 14 October 1998
Accepted 21 October 1998
ABSTRACT
Whereas some El Niño years are known to be associated with droughts in some parts of the globe, notably India,
other El Niños do not seem to be effective. Recently, it was observed that Unambiguous ENSOW (El Niño years, in
which the Southern Oscillation Index minima and Pacific sea surface temperature maxima occurred in the middle of
the calendar year) were better associated with droughts. This association was checked for rainfalls in South Asia and
China. Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and East Asia (comprising of the People’s Republic of China and adjacent
regions, including India) showed a good association of Unambiguous ENSOW events with droughts. Thailand,
Malaysia and the whole Philippines showed some association; but the northwest Philippines showed opposite results.
To find a rational for this criterion, it was checked whether such events were in any way related to the timings of the
El Niño events. In general, El Niños active during the main rainy season (June – September for all India’s summer
monsoon rainfall) were better associated with droughts. But some events did not fit this pattern. Also, many years
not having El Niños were associated with droughts. Thus, the El Niño relationship is not clear-cut and predictions
based on the same alone are likely to go wrong more often than not, as in the case of the recent El Niño (1997).
Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society.
KEY WORDS: ENSO; drought; India; Southeast Asia; China
1. INTRODUCTION
Southeast Asia is the mainland east of India and south of China, with the islands to the south and east
(Figure 1, from Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997a) and consists of Myanmar (formerly Burma), Thailand,
Indo-China (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia or Kampuchea), Malaysia, Singapore, the islands forming the
Republic of Indonesia, Borneo, Brunei, the Philippine islands, Portuguese Timor and the western New
Guinea. Several workers have reported links between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phe-
nomenon and rainfall extremes in India (e.g. Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1983; Kiladis and Diaz, 1989;
Ropelewski and Halpert, 1987, 1989; Mooley and Paolino, 1989) and Australia (e.g. Ropelewski and
Halpert, 1987, 1989; Nicholls and Wong, 1990; Evans and Allan, 1992). For the Southeast Asian region,
Quinn et al. (1978) reported an El Niño relationship with Indonesian droughts, particularly in the east
monsoon season May – October. Recently, investigations have been reported of relationships between
India summer monsoon rainfall and rainfalls in China (Kripalani and Singh, 1993), Thailand (Kripalani
et al., 1995) and Bangladesh and Nepal (Kripalani et al., 1996a), which indicate that variations over
central India, north China and northwest Thailand are in-phase with Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR),
while variations from northeast India up to southeast China are out of phase with IMR (Kripalani, 1997).
Chinese meteorologists (Chen Longxun et al. 1991; Ding Yihui, 1994) suggest the existence of an East
Asian monsoon circulation system relatively independent of the Indian monsoon. The Southeast Asian
* Correspondence to: INPE, Caixa Postal 515, 12201-970, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil. E-mail: kane@laser.inpe.br
Contract/grant sponsor: FNDCT, Brazil; Contract/grant number: FINEP-537/CT
CCC 0899–8418/99/060653 – 20$17.50

Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society
654 R.P. KANE
summer monsoon (Indian monsoon) has its low level branch of the local Hadley circulation, with
substantial convergence, pronounced updraft and vigorous rain, around (10°–20°N, 85°–95°E) over the
Bay of Bengal, whereas the western North Pacific summer monsoon (East Asian monsoon) has its active
convection and updraft centre over the key domain (10°–20°N, 130°–150°E) of world’s highest sea
surface temperature (SST) (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997a). The boundary between these two monsoon
regimes appears somewhere over the South China Sea, where relatively dry weather persists and where the
downdraft portion of both these monsoons occurs. Hence, the rainfalls at various locations around the
South China Sea may show different characteristics and may not necessarily correlate positively with the
Indian monsoon. Recent simulations of the East Asian monsoon with general circulation models indicate
that the monsoon over the Indian region (6° –22°N, 60°–90°E) and the East Asian region (12°–22°N,
110°–125°E) may be negatively correlated (Wang and Xun-Qiang, 1995).
For relationship with El Niños, the listing given by Quinn et al. (1978, 1987) is often used. Kane
(1997a,b, 1998) noticed that not all El Niños in this list were associated with droughts in India, and
attempted a finer classification in which Unambiguous ENSOW-type events (explained later in this paper)
were found to be overwhelmingly associated with droughts in India. In the present communication, the
behaviour of rainfalls in the Southeast Asian region is examined to see whether Unambiguous ENSOW
have any special significance. Also, it examines whether the timing of the El Niño (starting month and
duration) has any bearing on rainfall extremes. Some other aspects are also examined.
2. DATA
The All India summer monsoon (IMR) rainfall data for 1871–1990 were obtained from Parthasarathy et
al. (1992). Rainfall data for Thailand (Tha, 1911–1989, monsoon period), Malaysia (Mal, 1898–1975,
annual), Singapore (Sin, 1872 – 1980, annual), Brunei (Bru, 1908–1980, annual), Indonesia (Ind, 1898–
1975, annual), Philippines (Ph1, 1903 – 1975, monsoon period for the northwest sector) and Philippines
(Ph2, 1903–1975, annual) were extracted from Kripalani and Kulkarni (1997a). For East Asia as a whole
(15°–60°N, 70°–140°E), which includes the whole of the People’s Republic of China and the surrounding
Figure 1. Map showing the region of Southeast Asia (30°N – 10°S, 90° – 140°E, Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997a)
Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society Int. J. Climatol. 19: 653 – 672 (1999)
EL NIN0 O TIMINGS AND RAINFALL EXTREMES 655
territories, including India, Hulme and Zhao (1994), have given annual and seasonal precipitation time
series, from which the summer season (EAS, 1880–1992, June–August) series is considered here. Data for
Puerto Chicama (8°S, 80°W, Peru coast) SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies (for 1925 onwards)
were obtained from private sources and those for El Niño 1 +2 region (0°–10°S, 90°–80°W) near
Peru–Ecuador coast and El Niño 3 region (5°N–5°S, 150°–90°W) in the eastern Pacific and for Tahiti
(18°S, 150°W) minus Darwin (12°S, 131°E) pressure difference (T− D) (for 1950 onwards, representing
Southern Oscillation Index, SOI) from Parker (1983) and the monthly Climate Diagnostic Bulletins of
CPC (Climate Prediction Centre of NOAA’s National Centre for Environmental Prediction). The SOI
obtained by Wright (1975) based on pressure at a wide spread of stations (Cape Town, Bombay,
Djakarta, Darwin, Adelaide, Apia, Honolulu, Santiago) was also examined and found to be very similar
to the Tahiti minus Darwin pressure difference. For Pacific SST, the Wright (1984) Index was also used
and refers to the region 6°N – 6°S, 180 – 90°W (central and eastern equatorial Pacific). A similar SST index
developed by Angell (1981), and a further private communication, was also used, for comparison.
During 1925–1950, only SST anomalies at Puerto Chicama (Peru coast) were available. Plots of these
(not shown here) were compared with those of El Niño 1 + 2 region, El Niño 3 region, the Wright (1984)
SST index and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (12-monthly running means). The following features
were noted:
(i) The largest SST fluctuation was at Puerto Chicama. In 1982–1983, the temperature anomaly reached
almost 10°C.
(ii) The El Niño 1 + 2 region SST fluctuation was almost similar to that of Puerto Chicama but
smoother and smaller in magnitude (about half, being the average over an extended region), with
almost similar commencement, to within a month. The El Niño 3 region SST fluctuation was roughly
similar but with still smaller magnitudes (about one third, averaged over a very large region) and
commenced generally with a lag of 1 – 2 months, though 1982–1983 was an exception, with the El
Niño 3 region commencing earlier. The plots of Wright SST were very similar to those of El Niño
3, as expected. In a few cases (1968, 1986, 1991), El Niño 3 and Wright SST showed anomalies not
accompanied by El Niño 1 + 2.
(iii) The SOI evolution was occasionally out of phase with respect to the El Niño evolution, starting
earlier (1982) and/or lasting longer or occurring separately (1959, 1974). SOI is the atmospheric
component of the general ENSO phenomenon, while SST is the oceanic component and the two can
be out of phase (Deser and Wallace, 1987; Trenberth, 1997). This explains why ENSO events chosen
by different workers on the basis of El Niños (Rasmusson and Carpenter, 1983, following Quinn et
al.’s list), or on the basis of Southern Oscillation Index (T−D) (Kiladis and Diaz, 1989) or on the
basis of eastern equatorial Pacific SST (Mooley and Paolino, 1989), do not always tally. A
cross-correlation analysis between (T− D) and El Niño 1 + 2 SST yielded a maximum correlation
coefficient (0.609 0.06) at a phase shift of 2 months.
The designations (ENSOW etc.) for each year, used in Kane (1997a,b, 1998) are restated below.
EN = Presence of an El Niño at Puerto Chicama and El Niño region 1 + 2, (list of Quinn et al., 1978,
1987, updated).
SO = Presence of minimum in the Southern Oscillation Index, or Wright Index or Tahiti minus Darwin
atmospheric pressure difference.
W = Presence of maximum (positive anomalies) in the sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial
Pacific (El Niño 3 region).
C= Presence of minimum (negative anomalies) in the sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial
Pacific region (El Niño 3 region). These are La Niñas.
NON = Non-events, i.e. years not falling into any particular category.
The terms EN, SO, etc., are used here in their literal sense. (Thus, ENSO does not imply here the general
phenomenon, but only the presence of El Niño and SOI minima in the same year). Some years were
ENSOW, i.e. El Niño (EN) existed (Quinn et al.’s list), SOI minima (SO) also existed and, eastern
equatorial Pacific SST were higher (W). The ENSOW were further subdivided into two categories, as
656 R.P. KANE
follows. The 12-monthly running means of (T− D) and Pacific SST were used to check whether the SOI
minima or SST maxima occurred in the middle of the calendar year (May–August). If so, the events were
termed as ENSOW-U, i.e. Unambiguous ENSOW. If the extremes were in the earlier or later part of the
year (not in the middle), the events were termed as ENSOW-A, i.e. Ambiguous ENSOW. In other years,
combinations observed were: ENSO, ENW, ENC (EN in the early part of the year, C in the later part),
SOW, SO, W only, and finally, C (cold events, La Niñas). Years having neither an EN nor SO nor W nor
C were termed as non-e6ents.
3. RELATIONSHIP OF RAINFALLS IN YEARS OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES
Table I indicates the relationship between the rainfalls at the various locations for three categories of
years involving El Niño events, 6iz. (a) Unambiguous ENSOW, (b) Ambiguous ENSOW, (c) other types,
ENSO, ENW, EN, ENC. The rainfalls are indicated as broad categories. Thus, symbols + and −
represent positive and negative deviations within 0 and 0.5s; d (mild droughts) and f (mild floods)
represent negative deviations between − 0.5s and − 1.0s and positive deviations between +0.5s and
+ 1.0s; D (severe droughts) and F (severe floods) represent deviations exceeding 1.0s.
In Table I, the following may be noted:
(i) There is a profusion of (−, d, D) in Unambiguous ENSOW in IMR, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei,
Indonesia and EAS, to a lesser extent in Malaysia and no preferences for positive or negative
deviations in the Philippines. Thus, events of this type are o6erwhelmingly associated with droughts in
India and some of the regions of Southeast Asia, but not all.
(ii) In contrast, events of Ambiguous ENSOW are associated more with floods rather than with droughts
in IMR, Malaysia, Philippines (northwest) and East Asia, while Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and the
whole Philippines show bias for droughts.
(iii) In other events, IMR, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines (northwest) and East Asia show biases for
droughts, while Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and whole Philippines show biases for floods.
(iv) If all the 49 El Niño events are considered together (see numbers at the bottom of Table I), there is
a tendency for droughts in all locations (+ /− ratios 0.43–0.83) except the northwest Philippines,
where there is a tendency for floods (ratio 1.27).
This paper now examines whether the El Niño effects are dependent on the month of commencement and
the duration of the El Niño events.
4. EL NIN0 O COMMENCEMENT AND DURATION
Since plots of the SST anomalies at Puerto Chicama (data available from 1925 onwards only) were similar
to those of El Niño 1 +2 region, El Niño 3 region and Wright SST for periods for which data for all these
were available during major El Niño events, only Puerto Chicama SST plots were used to locate the
commencements and endings of the El Niño events. For double events, i.e. events that continued in the
next year (1957–1958, etc.), each year was considered as a separate event, the first year event considered
as ending in December of the first year and the second year event as commencing in January of the second
year. For events having a structure (El Niño active for a few months, extinct for the next few months, and
reappearing again), both the parts were one event. The list tallied exactly with the list of Trenberth (1997).
In the present list, there were 24 Q events (present in the list of Quinn et al., 1978, 1987) and seven others
equivalent to Q events (SST anomaly at Puerto Chicama positive). In all, there were 31 events.
(a) For India:
There were 14 events (1925, 1927, 1929, 1930, 1939, 1940, 1941, 1951, 1957, 1965, 1972, 1987, 1991,
1992), when El Niño was strong during June–September and droughts (d or D) were expected and
were observed.
Table I. Rainfall deviationsa for Unambiguous ENSOW, Ambiguous ENSOW and other types of
El Niños, with the numbers of F, f, +, −, d, D and the ratio (F, f, +)/(D, d, −) given at the
bottom
Event IMR Tha Mal Sin Bru Ind Ph1 Ph2 EAS
Unambiguous ENSOW
S 1877 I D D
M 1888 I d D D
M 1896 I − D +
S 1899 I D F − D
M 1902 d f D D D
M 1905 D − D − f D −
S 1911 I D − − d D d F + −
S 1918 I D d − f F d F + D
M 1930 I d d d d D d − d D
S 1941 II D − D d d
M 1951 D − f + − d − + d
S 1957 I d f + d d − d D d
M 1965 D D − D d d d d D
S 1972 I D d D D D D F f −
S 1982 I D + −
M 1987 D D −
16 events
F 0 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 0
f 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
+ 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3 1
− 1 3 4 0 1 3 2 0 5
d 4 3 1 5 2 5 2 2 3
D 11 2 2 6 3 2 0 2 6
(F, f, +)/(−, d, D) 0/16 2/8 4/7 2/11 1/6 0/10 4/4 4/4 1/14
Ratio 0.00 0.25 0.57 0.18 0.17 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.07
Ambiguous ENSOW
S 1878 II F +
M 1914 f d f − D D F D −
M 1919 II + D + + D f − +
M 1923 − D d d f d f f −
S 1925 I d d F F F D F F D
S 1926 II f + f − + f f f −
M 1931 II + d f f d − f − f
S 1940 I − d D d − d − D d
W 1948 + F d f d D d D +
M 1953 f F f D − D − + +
S 1958 II + f D d D F − d +
W 1963 + + D D f d f D −
W 1969 − f + − − D + D f
M 1976 + − d d +
S 1983 II F F +
15 events
F 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 1 0
f 3 2 4 2 2 1 5 2 2
+ 6 2 2 2 1 0 1 1 6
− 3 1 0 3 3 1 3 2 4
d 1 4 2 5 3 3 1 1 1
D 0 2 3 1 3 5 0 5 1
(F, f, +)/(−, d, D) 11/4 7/7 7/5 5/9 4/9 2/9 8/4 4/8 8/6
Ratio 2.75 1.0 1.40 0.55 0.44 0.22 2.00 0.50 1.33
658 R.P. KANE
Table I. (continued)
Event IMR Tha Mal Sin Bru Ind Ph1 Ph2 EAS
Other types of El Niño

1871 ENSO −
1873 ENSO D f
1880 ENSO − f D
1891 ENSO d F D
1900 ENSO II + − f D
1912 ENSO II d f + f D − d −
1884 ENW f d D
1897 EN II + F −
1929 EN − D d d − D f + d
1932 EN II d D − d f f f +
1939 EN d d − + − + − F D
1943 EN + d D d F −
1874 ENC F d
1887 ENC f f −
1889 ENC II f − F
1907 ENC d d D + d − D
1917 ENC F f f F F F + F F
1973 ENC II f − f F + F d F
18 events
F 2 0 0 4 1 3 0 2 3
f 4 2 2 4 1 2 1 1 0
+ 3 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1
− 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 4
d 5 2 2 5 0 0 2 1 1
D 1 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 6
(F, f, +)/(−, d, D) 9/9 2/5 3/5 9/8 3/3 7/2 2/3 4/2 4/11
Ratio 1.00 0.40 0.60 1.13 1.00 3.50 0.67 2.00 0.36
All 49 events
(F, f, +)/(−, d, D) 20/29 11/20 14/17 16/28 8/18 9/21 14/11 12/14 13/30
Ratio 0.69 0.55 0.82 0.57 0.44 0.43 1.27 0.86 0.43
I and II indicate first and second years of double El Niño events (1957–1958, etc.). Symbols S (strong), M
(moderate), W (weak) indicate strengths of the El Niño involved.
a
+, −, positive, negative, between 0 and 0.5s; f, d, mild floods and droughts, between 0.5s and 1.0s; F, D,
severe floods and droughts, exceeding 1.0s.
There were five events (1931 II, 1949, 1958 II, 1969, 1973 II) when the El Niños occurred before
June–September and hence were not likely to give droughts in India and did not give droughts. In
1963, El Niño occurred after August and hence, did not give droughts. There were 11 events when
expected and observed values differed (droughts were expected in seven cases but normal or excess
rainfall occurred. Normal rainfall was expected in four cases but droughts or excess rainfall
occurred).
Thus, in case of India, expectations based on El Niño timings alone were not fulfilled in a substantial
number of events (11 out of 31, 35%).
For India, the number of events conforming were 20, non-conforming were 11 and the percentage of
non-conforming events was 35%.
(b) For south-Asia:
The number of non-conforming events were: Thailand (41%), Malaysia (35%), Singapore (33%),
Brunei (32%), Indonesia (32%) and East Asia (33%); but Philippines northwest monsoon season
(45%) and Philippines annual (60%) showed larger non-conformity (values near 50%). If any of these
numbers would have been near 0%, it could have indicated reversed effects (El Niño associated with
floods rather than droughts).
In conclusion, it seems that the relationship between El Niño onsets and droughts is not perfect. In the
case of the Philippines, the relationship was the poorest, probably because of the influence of the East
Asian monsoon, which is said to be mostly independent of the Southeast Asian monsoon (Ding Yihui,
1994). On the other hand, East Asia as used by Hulme and Zhao (1994) had 160 Chinese locations and
only about two dozen Indian locations; yet, the response was similar to that of India. Hence, the effect
of the East Asian monsoon should be restricted to the South China Sea only. However, Shi and Zhu
(1996) report that the relationship between the East Asian summer monsoon and rainfall over China
shows remarkable regional features. For the East Asian summer monsoon, they define an index MI, based
on standardized sea level air pressure differences (110°E minus 160°E) at seven latitudes between 50°N
and 20°N. For rainfall, the ‘National Meteorological Centre’ of the Meteorological Administration of
China has divided the summer rain belts in East China into three main patterns, 6iz. (I) rain over and to
the north of the Huanghe River, (II) rain between Huanghe River and Changjiang River, (III) rain over
and to the south of Changjiang River. For the 40 years 1950–1989, they show that when the monsoon
index MI is positive (weak East Asian summer monsoon), mostly rainfall patterns III and II are seen, and
when MI index is negative (strong East Asian summer monsoon), only rainfall patterns I or II are seen.
In short, a powerful East Asian summer monsoon pushes the rain belt further north. Wet summers over
the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River are related to a weak summer monsoon, and, years
with dry summers are related to a strong monsoon. Thus, the rain patterns inside China are highly
variable from one region to another and are strongly associated with the East Asian MI. Kripalani and
Singh (1993) also examined the spatio-temporal variability of the rainfall over India and China. Their
EOF analysis showed a coherent pattern over a large part of India, in phase with North China, while over
China, rainfall occurred in the form of east – west oriented bands, suggesting two different climatic regimes
operating above and below 35°N. In this study, data over the whole of the People’s Republic of China
are averaged, and hence the regional effects of the East Asian summer MI have probably been wiped out,
leaving only the El Niño effects similar to those for India and Southeast Asia.
5. DROUGHTS
Let us examine what are the characteristics of the years when mild and severe droughts occur. For India,
droughts (negative deviations of − 0.5s or more) occurred in the following years:
For 1871–1924, when only Wright SST index was available:
Year Deviation ENSO characteristics Year Deviation ENSO characteristics
1873 −1.18 ENSO (W not seen) 1905 −1.64 ENSOW-U

(January–December)
1876 −0.91 Non-event 1907 −0.91 ENC (W not seen)
1877 −2.98 ENSOW-U 1911 −1.43 ENSOW-U
(February–December) (August–December)
1888 −0.50 ENSOW-U 1912 −0.58 ENSO
(January–December) (January–February)
1891 −0.76 ENSO 1913 −0.84 SOW (No data for W)
(April–August)
1899 −2.69 ENSOW-U 1915 −0.86 Non-event
(July–December)
1901 −1.60 Non-event 1918 −2.45 ENSOW-U (No data for W)
1902 −0.73 ENSOW-U 1920 −1.62 W
(January–December) (June–October)
1904 −1.24 SOW
(July–December)
660 R.P. KANE
For 1925 onwards, when Puerto Chicama SST data were available:
Year Deviation ENSO characteristics Year Deviation ENSO characteristics
1925 −0.59 ENSOW-A 1966 −1.40 Non-event

(January–December)
1928 −1.03 C 1968 −1.18 W
1930 −0.62 ENSOW-U 1972 −2.39 ENSOW-U
(March–December) (February–December)
1932 −0.61 EN 1974 −1.26 SO
(February–June)
1939 −0.76 EN (January) 1979 −1.73 SOW
1941 −1.48 ENSOW-U 1982 −1.40 ENSOW-U
(January–June) (October–December)
1951 −1.38 ENSOW-U 1985 −0.88 Non-event
(March–December)
1952 −0.72 Non-event 1986 −1.34 (EN)W
1957 −0.82 ENSOW-U 1987 −1.86 ENSOW-U
(February–December) (January–November)
1962 −0.52 Non-event (C?) 1991 −0.80 ENSOW-A
(July–September)
1965 −1.74 ENSOW-U 1992 −0.80 ENSOW-A
(March–December) (January–August)
For the period 1871 – 1924, from the 17 drought events (nine severe, eight mild), seven were associated
with ENSOW-U; but ten were associated with other types of events. Thus, whereas ENSOW-U was a
favourable combination, it was not exclusive.
For 1925 onwards, from the 22 droughts (ten mild, 12 severe) in All India summer monsoon, eight were
associated with Unambiguous ENSOW and three with Ambiguous ENSOW, indicating that ENSOW
(especially ENSOW-U) is a combination favourable for droughts. However, it is neither necessary nor
sufficient. In 11 cases (50%), droughts occurred in other categories (three non-events, two EN, one SO,
one SOW, one W, one ENW, two C) and among these, the two El Niños of 1932 and 1939 did not remain
active after June. On the other hand, during the ENSOW-A of 1926, 1948, 1953, 1976, 1983 and the
ENSOW-U of 1976, El Niño timings were suitable for droughts and yet, droughts did not occur. In
contrast, 1982 ENSOW-U had El Niño starting very late (October) and yet, a severe drought occurred.
Thus, whereas some relationship with El Niño timings is indicated, this is by no means the deciding
factor. Many other complicating factors must be involved.
Table II shows the drought severity and ENSO characteristics in years when droughts occurred at
different locations.
In Table II, many droughts are widespread, occurring in four or more locations. From these common
event types, seven are Ambiguous ENSOW, eight Unambiguous ENSOW, one EN, two SOW, one SO,
two W, two ENC, one SOC, one C and two non-events. Thus, whereas a large number is in the ENSOW
category, some can occur in other categories also, including non-events. Figure 2(a) shows the occurrence
frequency of these droughts. The following may be noted:
(i) For India (IMR, top plot), the largest occurrence (15) is for Unambiguous ENSOW. Ambiguous
ENSOW are only three; but droughts do occur in other categories also. Out of the 39 droughts, for
categories expected to be favourable to droughts (ENSOW-A, ENSOW-U, ENSO, ENW, EN, SOW,
SO, W), the score is 30 (77%). Thus, any manifestation of the ENSO phenomenon (EN and/or SO
and/or W) is favourable for droughts; but the combination Unambiguous ENSOW is more effective.
However, from the other eight events, only one is an ENC (EN would give drought) and the other seven
are C and non-events, categories not expected to give droughts.
Table II. Years of occurrence of drought (d, mild; D, severe) at different locations into
various categories
Category IMR Tha Mal Sin Bru Ind Ph1 Ph2 EAS
ENSOW-A 1925d 1914d 1923d 1923d 1914D 1914D 1948d 1914D 1925D
1991d 1919D 1940D 1940d 1919D 1923d 1 1940D 1940d
1992d 1923D 1948d 1953d 1931d 1925D 1948D 2
3 1925d 1958D 1958d 1948d 1940d 1958D
1931d 1963D 1963D 1958D 1948D 1963D
1940d 5 1976d 1976d 1953d 1969D
6 6 6 1963d 6
1969D
8
ENSOW-U 1877D 1918d 1930d 1877D 1911D 1902D 1957d 1905D 1888D
1888d 1930d 1941D 1888D 1930D 1911d 1965d 1930d 1899D
1899D 1965D 1972D 1896d 1957d 1918d 2 1957D 1902D
1902d 1972d 3 1902D 1965d 1930d 1965d 1918D
1905D 1987D 1905D 1972D 1951d 4 1930D
1911D 5 1911d 5 1965d 1941D
1918D 1930d 1972D 1951d
1930d 1941d 7 1957d
1941D 1957d 1965D
1951D 1965D 9
1957D 1972D
1965D 11
1972D
1982D
1987D
15
ENSO 1873d 1912D 1912d 1880D
1891d 1891D
1912d 1900D
ENW 1986D 1986D 1884d 1884D
1986D
EN 1932d 1929D 1929d 1929d 1929D 1969d 1929d
1939d 1932D 1943D 1932d 1971D 1939D
1939d 1943d 1975D
1943d
SOW 1904D 1977D 1904d 1944D 1913d 1913d 1904D
1913d 1979D 1944D 1977D 1944D 1913D
1979D 1979D 1944D
SO 1974D 1974D 1974D 1885D 1959d 1959D 1959d
1974d
W 1920D 1920D 1920D 1968d 1920D 1968D 1920D
1968D 1968d
ENC 1907d 1927D 1907d 1874d 1907d 1927d 1907D
1907D 1927d 1927D
1973d
SOC 1936d 1935D 1935D 1946d 1946D 1936d
1946D 1946D 1949D 1949D
662 R.P. KANE
Table II. (continued)
C 1928D 1922d 1898d 1872d 1909D 1921d 1903D 1903D 1893D

1962d 1928D 1903D 1882d 1922d 1950d 1906d 1960d 1894D
2 1961d 1916d 1894d 1961d 1961D 1909d 2 1942d
1967d 1928d 1908d 3 3 1910d 1950d
4 1938d 1960D 1938D 1975d
1942d 1961D 1950D 5
1955d 1971D 1954d
7 1975d 1955D
8 8
Non-events 1876d 1915D 1901d 1876D 1978d 1901d 1915D 1915D 1883D
1901D 1984d 1952d 1883D 1 1966D 1947D 1 1895D
1915d 1985d 2 1901d 1967D 1966d 1898D
1952d 1989D 3 3 3 1915d
1966D 4 1978D
1985d 1989D
6 6
Events common to four or more locations are underlined.
(ii) In the plots for other locations, only East Asia (bottom plot) has a preponderance (9) for Unambiguous
ENSOW only (Ambiguous ENSOW are only 2) and is thus similar to IMR, except that the number
of droughts occurring in C and non-events is also large (11). Singapore also has a preponderance (11)
for Unambiguous ENSOW; but Ambiguous ENSOW also contribute considerably (6) and C and
non-events contribute largely (11). In Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the whole Philippines,
both Unambiguous and Ambiguous ENSOW contribute considerably (3,5; 5,6; 7,8; 4,6). But at all these
locations a considerable number of droughts occur during C (La Niña) or non-events also (9, 4, 6,
3), a highly disconcerting aspect. A considerable influence of other factors must be involved, including
an effect of the East Asian summer monsoon.
(iii) For northwest Philippines (Ph1, third plot from bottom), the pattern is opposite to IMR, few droughts
during Unambiguous or Ambiguous ENSOW and many droughts during C and non-events. Thus, this
region seems to be affected more by the East Asian monsoon, indicated to be negatively correlated
to the Indian monsoon (Wang and Xun-Qiang, 1995).
6. FLOODS
Table III shows the years of occurrence of floods at the various locations.
In Table III, many events are widespread, three being Ambiguous ENSOW, one Unambiguous ENSOW,
one SOW, two ENC, three SOC, 15 C and one non-event. Thus, a tendency towards C-type events (La
Niña) is indicated. Figure 2(b) shows the occurrence frequency of the floods. The following may be noted:
(i) For India (IMR, top plot), the largest occurrence (22) is for the C events, indicating a fairly good association
of La Niña with floods (22 out of 44 events, 50%). If the ENC (5) and SOC (3) are considered as affected
by C, the score would be 30 (68%) out of 44. But ten events fall in the ENSO group (EN and/or SO
and/or W). Thus, in these cases, ENSO could not cause a drought or could not prevent floods.
(ii) In the plots for other locations, East Asia had fewer floods (24) as compared with IMR (44), though
the data length is almost the same. Also, many floods occur during events of other types. This probably
indicates a diluting effect, when a very large area is considered, 6iz. the whole People’s Republic of
China, where heterogeneous rainfall regimes may be involved. In Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia,
the pattern is similar to India. In the whole Philippines and Malaysia, many droughts occur outside
the C category.
Figure 2. Occurrence frequency of (a) droughts and (b) floods, at different locations (IMR, Thailand, etc.), during different types
of years (ENSOW, etc.)
(iii) In the northwest Philippines, a larger number is outside the C category, indicating behaviour opposite
to India.
Overall, Indian monsoon seems to have the best relationship with the ENSO phenomenon (though by no
means perfect) and some regions in Southeast Asia show almost similar relationship; but some others show
larger dissimilarities, probably due to interference from the East Asian monsoon and/or other local factors.
7. ASSOCIATION WITH EAST ASIAN MONSOON
The author does not know how representative the MI index of Shi and Zhu (1996) is for the East Asian
monsoon. In any case, using that for East Asian monsoon and using Wright SST values (12-monthly mean)
as an ENSO index, a correlation analysis was carried out. Only common data for 1911–1940 and 1946–1975
were used. Most of the correlations were low. Reasonably good correlations ( + 0.4 or more) were: IMR
with Thailand (+ 0.42) and with East Asia rainfall (EAS) ( + 0.58); Thailand with EAS (+ 0.47);
664 R.P. KANE
Table III. Years of occurrence of floods (f, mild; F, severe) at different locations into various
categories
ENSOW-A 1878F 1948F 1925F 1925F 1923f 1926f 1914F 1923f 1931f
1914f 1953F 1926f 1931f 1925F 1958F 1919f 1925F 1969f
1926f 1958f 1931f 1948f 1963f 2 1923f 1926f 2
1953f 1969f 1953f 3 3 1925F 3
1983F 1983F 4 1926f
5 5 1931f
1963f
7
ENSOW-U 1975f 1899F 1918f 1918F 1905f 1918f
1902F 1911F 1972f
1914f 1918F
1951f 1972F
ENSO 1912f 1873f 1900f
1880f
1912f
ENW 1884f
EN 1897F 1932f 1932f 1929f 1932f
1943f 1939F
SOW 1944f 1944f 1913F 1913F 1913f 1904F 1904f 1904f
1994F 1977f 1913f
SO 1959F 1959f 1959f 1974f 1974F 1885f
1959F
W 1920f 1920f
1968F 1968f
ENC 1874F 1917f 1917f 1887f 1917F 1917F 1917F 1889F
1887f 1927f 1917F 1973F 1917f
1889f 1973f 1927f 1973F
1917f 1973F
1973f
SOC 1936f 1949F 1936f 1946F 1935f 1935f 1935f 1946f
1946f 1946F 1936F 1936f 1949f
1949f 1949F
C 1872f 1916F 1906F 1879F 1916F 1903F 1961F 1906f 1892f
1875f 1924f 1910f 1890F 1924f 1906f 1962F 1908F 1903f
1879f 1933F 1922f 1893F 1928f 1908f 1967f 1910f 1908F
1882f 1934f 1924F 1898f 1933f 1909F 3 1916F 1910f
1890f 1938F 1934f 1903f 1934F 1910F 1921F 1938f
1892f 1942F 1967F 1906F 1938F 1916F 1922f 1954F
1893F 1950f 6 1910f 1942F 1933f 1928f 1956F
1894F 1954f 1921f 1954F 1934f 1934F 1964f
1908f 1955F 1922f 1955f 1938f 1938f 8
1910F 1960F 1924f 1956f 1942f 1956F
1916F 1962F 1928F 1962f 1954F 1971F
1933F 1964F 1934F 1971f 1955F 11
1934f 1970F 1954F 12 1956F
1938f 1971f 1956f 1962f
1942F 1988F 1964F 1971f
1955f 15 1967F 15
1956F 16
1961F
Table III. (continued)
1964f
1970F
1975F
1988F
22
Non-events 1945f 1937F 1915f 1895F 1936f 1937F 1947f 1937f
1947f 1945F 1947F 1952F 1980F 1952f 1947f
1978f 1966f 1966F 1978F
1990f 1978F
1980F 1981F
Events common to four or more locations are underlined.
Malaysia with Singapore (+ 0.47); Brunei with whole Philippines (+ 0.47). All other correlations were lower
than + 0.4. Northwest Philippines had a negative correlation with all other rainfalls except with the whole
Philippines (+0.16). All rainfalls had very low correlations (0.16 or less) with the MI index. However, the
Wright SST index had reasonably good negative correlations (implying droughts) with rainfalls at IMR
( −0.56), Brunei (−0.46) and Indonesia (− 0.43) and low negative correlations with all other rainfalls except
the northwest Philippines (+ 0.35). The correlation between the MI index and the Wright SST index was
+0.15, which indicates that these two are relatively independent of each other (Chen Longxun et al., 1991;
Ding Yihui, 1994) rather than negatively correlated as mentioned by Wang and Xun-Qiang (1995).
If two effects act simultaneously, the direct correlations may be low; but partial correlations can be high.
In the present case, the correlation between IMR and Wright SST was − 0.56, between IMR and MI index
was − 0.11 and between MI and Wright SST was + 0.15. A partial correlation analysis changed the − 0.56
to − 0.55. Thus, the correlations remained moderate. Obviously, neither the Wright index nor the MI index
nor their combination gives good results. For a longer period 1873–1989, a bivariate analysis in which IMR
rainfall was considered as the independent variable and the MI index and the Wright Index as the two
dependent variables yielded a multiple correlation coefficient of only 0.58, accounting for only 35% of
the total variance.
In Table II many droughts occurred in the category C when only floods are expected (seven at Malaysia,
eight at Singapore and eight at the northwest Philippines). Was the East Asian summer monsoon index
MI particularly suitable for droughts for these years? The standardized MI index series for 1873–1989 as
given in Shi and Zhu (1996) ranges from − 2.53 to + 2.92. Positive values indicate weak summer monsoon
and negative values indicate strong summer monsoon. The MI values for drought years in the C category
were as follows:
Malaysia Singapore North-west Philippines
Year MI Year MI Year MI
1898 +1.89 1882 +0.87 1903 +0.62

1903 +0.62 1894 +0.65 1906 −0.25
1916 +0.14 1908 −0.62 1909 +0.56
1928 −0.98 1960 −1.25 1910 −0.98
1938 −0.81 1961 −1.16 1938 −0.81
1942 +0.33 1971 +0.35 1950 −0.82
1955 −0.20 1975 −0.99 1954 −0.09
1955 −0.20
666 R.P. KANE
Figure 3. Plots of the various rainfall series, for (a) 1870 – 1940, (b) 1940 – 1994. Major floods are indicated by dots and major
droughts by triangles. The thick lines are 11-year running averages. A and B see text
As can be seen, there is no preponderance of large positive or negative MI values in any column. Thus,
the East Asian summer MI does not seem to have any strong influence on the rainfall extremes at Malaysia,
Singapore and the northwest Philippines.
8. EPOCHAL BEHAVIOUR
Figure 3 shows the interannual variability of the various time-series during (a) 1870–1940 and (b)
1940–1994. Dots indicate major floods and triangles indicate major droughts. These are sometimes in the
same years for more than one location. The thick lines represent 11-year running averages and show what
Kripalani and Kulkarni (1997a,b) term as the epochal behaviour, i.e. there are long epochs when the rainfall
is either above normal (A) or below normal (B). For example, for IMR (All India summer monsoon),
1880–1895 (16 years) and 1930 – 1963 (34 years) were epochs of above normal rainfall, while 1895–1930
(36 years) and 1963 – 1990 (28 years) were years of below normal rainfall (indicated in Figure 3, top plot,
as A and B). For other locations, there were other epochs and the average length of the epochs over the
equatorial region (e.g. Singapore, Indonesia) was about a decade (oceanic influence), whereas over the
tropical regions away from the equator (e.g. India, Thailand), the length was about three decades. It was
also noticed by these authors that the impact of El Niños was more se6ere during the below normal epochs.
This might as well be because of recent changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño versus La Niña
events (Trenberth and Hurrel, 1994). To check this, Kripalani and Kulkarni (1997b) examined the long-term
changes, omitting the El Niño and/or La Niña events and concluded that the epochal behaviour was slightly
modified but not fundamentally forced by the El Niño/La Niña frequency. Hence, El Niño/La Niña events
can be considered as external forcing and the epochal behaviour as internal variability. Table IV combines
the results presented by Kripalani and Kulkarni (1997a,b) to illustrate this feature.
Thus, for IMR, the mean values for the above normal epoch A and the below normal epoch B are
− 0.369 0.31s and − 1.26 9 0.27s, respectively. The two are significantly different at a 5% level. The same
level of difference is seen at some other locations also, substantiating the conclusion of Kripalani and
Kulkarni (1997a,b) that the external forcing by El Niños is more effective in causing droughts when the
epoch is of below normal rainfall (B).
However, there are some unsatisfactory features. Thus,
(i) Even in the above normal epoch A, some deviations are negative, indicating that droughts are not
ruled out. The average value in A is less negative (or even positive) as compared with epoch B, because
in some years, the deviations are large positive, much more so in epoch A than in epoch B.
(ii) In the case of Indonesia, all the deviations in epochs A and B are negative. Hence, their averages
− 1.13 9 0.21s (for B) and − 0.67 9 0.20s (for A) are not significantly different and, as mentioned
by Kripalani and Kulkarni (1997a), the external forcing (El Niño effect) plays a more dominant role
than the internal epochal behaviour (A or B).
(iii) If the years in which the deviations in A or B in Table IV are positive are considered as conforming,
it is interesting to note that many of these years are common to many locations. Ignoring Phillipines
(monsoon) and to a lesser extent, the whole Phillipines, which show results differing from those of
other locations, the years 1914 (ENSOW-A), 1925 (ENSOW-A), 1951 (ENSOW-U), 1953 (ENSOW-A)
seem to have failed to give droughts at more than one location.
(iv) Even in the group B, some deviations are very small (within 0 and 0.5s), indicating normal rainfall.
Thus, whereas the observation that El Niños are more effective in low rainfall epochs is correct on
an average basis, it may be risky to use it for predicting the impact of any given El Niño.
9. EURASIAN SNOW COVER EFFECT
As mentioned earlier, some droughts and floods occurred in India without any ENSO connection. A
possible effect (droughts) due to the excess Himalayan snow cover was hypothesized and used for
Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society
668
Table IV. Rainfall deviations (normalized, units of 0.1s) during El Niño events occurring during A, epochs of above normal rainfalls and
B, epochs of below normal rainfall, different at different locations
IMR B Tha B Mal B Sin B Bru B Ind B Ph1 B Ph2 B
1877 −30 1918 −9 1939 −4 1877 −20 1911 −15 1923 −6 1941 0 1951 1
1896 −3 1923 −13 1941 −23 1884 −7 1914 −36 1925 −16 1951 −1 1953 1
1899 −27 1925 −5 1902 −12 1965 −8 1930 −6 1953 −1 1957 −12
1902 −7 1930 −9 1905 −11 1969 −2 1951 −8 1957 −5 1965 −5
1905 −16 1932 −12 1939 4 1972 −14 1965 −8
1911 −14 1941 −6 1969 −15
1914 5 1957 −8 1972 −20
1918 −24 1965 −12
1923 −3 1969 −1
1925 −6 1972 −14
1965 −17
1969 −3
R.P. KANE
1972 −24
1976 1
1982 −14
1987 −19
Mean −12.6 −9.6 −13.5 −8.7 −15.0 −11.3 −1.8 −3.8

S.D. 2.7 1.4 9.3 2.1 5.7 2.1 1.1 3.1
A A A A A A A A
1884 10 1939 −9 1905 −2 1891 0 1923 6 1902 −13 1911 28 1918 6
1887 6 1941 −4 1911 −4 1911 −6 1925 19 1905 −2 1914 27 1923 10
1891 −7 1951 −1 1914 7 1914 −4 1930 −13 1911 −5 1918 14 1925 12
1932 −6 1953 13 1918 −3 1918 7 1932 7 1914 −12 1923 10 1930 −8
Int. J. Climatol. 19: 653 – 672 (1999)
1939 −7 1957 7 1923 −5 1923 −8 1939 −1 1918 −6 1925 16 1932 8

1941 −15 1965 −10 1925 22 1925 22 1941 0 1957 −2 1930 −3
1951 −13 1969 7 1951 6 1951 3 1932 0
1953 8 1953 8 1965 −6
1957 −8
Mean −3.6 0.4 3.6 2.0 3.0 −6.7 10.8 5.6

S.D. 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.9 4.3 2.0 4.6 3.5
Figure 4. Plots of (a) IMR anomalies and (b) ESC spring anomalies (March, dots; April, crosses)
correlation with Indian rainfall by Blanford (1884) and later by Walker (1910). Up to 1920, a negative
correlation was observed; but it became uncertain in later decades and the effort was abandoned. When
satellite data became available in 1966, Hahn and Shukla (1976) and later Dey and Bhanukumar (1983),
Dickson (1984), Verma (1990) and others pursued snow studies and concluded that extensive (little) Eurasian
snow cover (ESC) in winter/spring was followed by deficient (excess) Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Recently, Kripalani et al. (1996b) reported that the January snow mass over two regions of the former USSR
was inversely related to IMR and the ESC in April also had a similar relationship. Direct correlations have
been shown to be negative; but there are complications due to the effect of El Niños. Yang (1996) and
Sankar-Rao et al. (1996) show that the ESC –IMR negative relationship improves if El Niño years are
omitted. The correlation between SOI and ESC is rather low. Nevertheless, an impact of snow cover on
ENSO phenomenon has been investigated. In a simple way, excess (deficit) Eurasian snow acts to keep the
land and the overlying atmospheric column colder (warmer), reducing (enhancing) the land–ocean
temperature contrast and weakening (strengthening) the monsoon and hence, rainfall. However, Barnett
et al. (1989) used a coupled atmosphere – ocean model and showed that the negative relationship was not
due to increased snow cover alone, but by increased snowfall rate also, which provided large amount of
snow for melting and evaporation. A perturbation induced by doubling of Eurasian snowfall rate could
trigger El Niños in equatorial Pacific 1 – 2 seasons following the India monsoon deficit. Yasunari et al. (1991)
and Vernekar et al. (1995) performed experiments with MRI and COLA GCM and came to similar
conclusions. Khandekar (1991) made a phase lagged correlation analysis and hypothesized that a lighter
(heavier) than normal ESC, followed by an excess (deficit) IMR, could trigger El Niños 4–5 seasons (12–15
months) after the IMR season. Yang (1996) made a similar analysis and found that heavy winter ESC
occurred during El Niño winters, while the SOI led the winter ESC by 2–3 seasons and, whereas ESC was
negatively related to IMR, the relationship was considerably disrupted by El Niños. Sankar-Rao et al. (1996)
also came to a similar conclusion and found that in years when there was no El Niño, excess ESC in winter
was followed by lower temperatures over Asia in the following summer. Thus, ESC–IMR relationship can
be greatly disturbed by ENSO phenomena, which, in turn may be triggered or modified by ESC.
670 R.P. KANE
Table V. The staus of ESC (+, n, −) and ENSO phenomenon, the expected effects on rainfall
(+, n, −), the observed IMR (D, d, −, +, f, F) and comments
Year Status Expected effects Observed Comments
ESC ENSO ESC ENSO IMR
1973 n ENC n + or − f C prevailed

1974 n SO n − D SO prevailed
1975 − C, La Niña + + F ESC and C worked*
1976 + ENSOW-A − n or − n ESC failedx
1977 − SOW + − n ESC cancelled SOW*
1978 n Non-event n n f Doubtful
1979 + SOW − − D ESC and SOW worked*
1980 + Non-event − n n ESC failedx
1981 + Non-event − n n ESC failedx
1982 n ENSOW-U n D D ENSO worked
1983 n ENSOW-A n n or − F ENSOW failed
1984 n Non-event n n n All as expected
1985 + Non-event − N d ESC worked*
1986 n ENW n − D ENSO worked
1987 + ENSOW-U − − D ESC and ENSO worked*
1988 − C, La Niña + + F ESC and C worked*
1989 − Non-event + N n ESC failedx
1990 − Non-event + N f ESC worked*
1991 − ENSOW-A + n or − d ESC failedx
1992 − ENSOW-A + n or − d ESC failedx
1993 − ENW + − n ESC cancelled ENSO*
1994 − SOW + − F ESC prevailed*
x
* Expectations fulfilled; not fulfilled.
Reliable ESC data are available from NOAA since about 1972. Figure 4(a) shows a plot of IMR for
1973–1994. For each year, the classification status (ENSOW, SOW, C, etc.) is also indicated. When the
IMR values were correlated with ESC values for January, February, March, April and May, the
correlation coefficients were −0.27, − 0.07, −0.30, − 0.34 and − 0.02. Thus, the ESC values of March
and April showed the largest correlations. Figure 4(b) shows a plot of the March (dots) and April
(crosses) anomalies (deviations from the average pattern) of ESC. A comparison of Figure 4(a) and (b)
shows that in many years, ENSO is active i.e. there is either an El Niño of some kind or a La Niña (C).
From the 22 years 1973 – 1974, only 7 (1978, 1980, 1981, 1984, 1985, 1989, 1990) are non-events, during
which ESC effects could be seen exclusively. Also, from the 22 years data, 7 years have normal ESC, 6
years have ESC well above average (exceeding + 0.5) and 9 years have ESC well below average.
Assuming that El Niño and ESC above average would give droughts in IMR (−, d, D), C and ESC
below average would give floods in IMR (+ , f, F) and non-events and normal ESC would give normal
rainfalls (n), Table V lists the expected and observed effects for each of the 22 years, and comments as
to whether the expected effects were observed.
In Table V, from the 22 years, 7 years had normal ESC (n) and for these, the IMR would be related
to ENSO phenomenon only. For the other 15 years, ESC either worked in conjunction with ENSO or
worked alone. In nine (60%) cases, ESC gave expected results (*) while in six (40%) cases, ESC failed to
give expected results (x). On the whole, the results are satisfactory; but, for prediction purposes,
uncertainties would be large. A similar study for other regions in SE Asia needs to be conducted.
10. CONCLUSIONS
The data for rainfalls in India, Southeast Asia (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia,
Philippines) and East Asia (mainly the whole of China, with some adjacent regions, including India) were
examined for association with El Niño events. For All Indian summer monsoon rainfall (IMR),
Unambiguous ENSOW (El Niño years, in which the SOI minima and equatorial eastern Pacific SST
maxima occurred in the middle of the calendar year) had an overwhelming bias for droughts. Similar
good association was seen for rainfalls at Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and East Asia and to a lesser
extent, with Thailand, Malaysia and whole Philippines. The northwest Philippines showed almost
opposite results.
A check was made to see whether this relationship was in any way related to the timings of the El Niños
also. Out of 31 events, 14 El Niños occurred during the Indian summer season and gave droughts and six
were not active during the Indian summer and did not give droughts. However, in seven cases when the
El Niño timing was suitable for droughts, they did not occur. In four cases, El Niño timings were not
suitable for anything; but droughts or floods occurred.
In C-type years (La Niñas), excess rains occurred overwhelmingly in IMR and to lesser extent at other
locations, except the northwest Philippines where almost opposite results were seen.
In general, excess Eurasian snow cover in spring was associated with droughts in IMR. But the presence
of El Niños or C events complicated the snow effects. In years when ENSO effects were absent, the snow
effect was not seen invariably, indicating the interference of factors unrelated to ENSO or snow.
Even though Unambiguous ENSOW show an overwhelming association with droughts in India and, to
a lesser extent in Southeast Asia, the relationship of rainfall with El Niños in general is not clear cut, as
there are other contributory factors to be taken into account. Predictions based on the ENSO phenomena
alone should be made with great caution and reservation.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Thanks are due to Dr Todd Mitchell and Dr Don Garrett for supplying Puerto Chicama SST data, to Dr
Roland Schweitzer for the Reynolds SST data for Indian Ocean, to Dr P.B. Wright and Dr J.K. Angell
for SST and SO data and to Climate Data Center, Washington, for several other data. This work was
partially supported by FNDCT, Brazil under contract FINEP-537/CT.
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El Nin 0 O Timings and Rainfall Extremes in India, Southeast Asia and China

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY

Int. J. Climatol. 19: 653–672 (1999)

EL NIN0 O TIMINGS AND RAINFALL EXTREMES IN INDIA,

Recei6ed 5 February 1998

Contract/grant sponsor: FNDCT, Brazil; Contract/grant number: FINEP-537/CT

CCC 0899–8418/99/060653 – 20$17.50

3. RELATIONSHIP OF RAINFALLS IN YEARS OF DIFFERENT CATEGORIES

4. EL NIN0 O COMMENCEMENT AND DURATION

Other types of El Niño

For 1871–1924, when only Wright SST index was available:

Year Deviation ENSO characteristics Year Deviation ENSO characteristics

1873 −1.18 ENSO (W not seen) 1905 −1.64 ENSOW-U

Year Deviation ENSO characteristics Year Deviation ENSO characteristics

1925 −0.59 ENSOW-A 1966 −1.40 Non-event

Table II. (continued)

C 1928D 1922d 1898d 1872d 1909D 1921d 1903D 1903D 1893D

Events common to four or more locations are underlined.

7. ASSOCIATION WITH EAST ASIAN MONSOON

Table III. (continued)

Events common to four or more locations are underlined.

Malaysia Singapore North-west Philippines

Year MI Year MI Year MI

1898 +1.89 1882 +0.87 1903 +0.62

9. EURASIAN SNOW COVER EFFECT

IMR B Tha B Mal B Sin B Bru B Ind B Ph1 B Ph2 B

Mean −12.6 −9.6 −13.5 −8.7 −15.0 −11.3 −1.8 −3.8

1939 −7 1957 7 1923 −5 1923 −8 1939 −1 1918 −6 1925 16 1932 8

Mean −3.6 0.4 3.6 2.0 3.0 −6.7 10.8 5.6

Year Status Expected effects Observed Comments

ESC ENSO ESC ENSO IMR

1973 n ENC n + or − f C prevailed

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