As the increasing trade deficit between China and the U.S.A.

, Trump’s
government initiated a trade war. There is a common belief that the trade war is
completely beneficial for America. However, this is false. Actually, China-US
trade war is complex for China and America. China-US trade war which has
multifaceted influence on not only economy but also agriculture and global trade.
First of all, because China and the US tariffs on imported goods, it leads to
some economic effects on GDP, stock market, health care and technology products.
For example, due to the trade war, China and the US GDP will decline. Wei Li,
senior China economist at Standard Chartered in Shanghai, estimates that a broad-
based trade war between the US and China would cost China 1.3 per cent to 3.2
per cent of GDP, with the latter estimate representing an extreme scenario in
which the US bans all Chinese imports. For the US, the comparable loss would be
0.2 per cent to 0.9 per cent.[1] Another example is that Tariffs makes the
company’s profit unstable. “Tariffs remain the largest source of risk for
equities”, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, Head of US Equity Strategy and Global
Quantitative Research, J.P. Morgan, said in a note on the second quarter corporate
earnings season.[2] What’s more, tariffs increase the burden of health-care
costs on domestic patients and medical funds. Although both China and the US
avoid taxing on medicines directly, it also influences the price of health-care
inevitably. Moreover, higher tariff makes the price of technology products go
up, it will become a burden for consumers finally. According to JLab CEO Win
Cramer states, “If JLab passes along the entire cost of the tariffs, a pair of
sports earbuds listed on its site at $149 could end up costing $163.90.”[3] The
higher price rises, the lower enthusiasm of consumers becomes.
On the other hand, due to continuation of China-US trade war, China imposes
retaliatory tariffs on the United States, which is not positive for agriculture
with three aspects. For instance, China-US trade war raises the price of soybeans,
and farmers’ income decline because of exporting less soybeans. Smith says
analyses he and Dr. Andrew Muhammad prepared (to be released soon) show that
exports could drop by $600 million to $10.7 billion if China imposes a tariff
ranging from 10 percent to 35 percent on U.S. soybeans. At those levels, farmers
face “potential farm-level losses of 14 cents to $2.50 a bushel.” [4] What’s
more, the trade war may bring a heavy crisis for farmers. A study by Market Watch
shows that following six years of falling farm income and rising debt levels,
Trump’s tariff war with China and the recent record floods could lead to a farm
crisis on par to the 1980s. [5] The next example is that the trade war changes
environmental cost. A research by Journal of Cleaner Production observes, “Our
research findings showed that the change in international soybean trade caused
by the US-China trade barrier would lead to an increase in global environmental
costs due to the surplus soybean in the US and the increased food transportation
mileage.”[6]
What’s more, since the China-US trade war friction escalates, it influences
global trade complexly, including Canada, Brazilian and Chile. For example, an
article by Calgary Herald suggests that the latest 25-per-cent levy on U.S. goods
could create some opportunities for Canadian exports, especially Canada’s beef
and pork. There will be a bigger market for Canadian to make profits. [7] What’s
more, China’s shift in the habit of buying soybeans is good for Brazilian
soybean exports. China is the world’s largest soybean consumer. After China
turn to import soybeans from Brazilian, Soybean planting in Brazil is growing
rapidly. A report by Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture shows that Brazil's soybean
exports reached a record 83.6 million tons in 2018, and Chinese demand is the
main driving force. In 2018, China's consumption of Brazilian soybeans reached
68.8 million tons, an increase of 15 million tons from 2017. Brazil's soybeans
accounted for 75.88% of China's total soybean imports (eight.83 million tons).[8]
Moreover, China-US trade war hits some small countries like Chile. According to
Tomas Slangen Velasco points out, “since the trade war started, the price of
copper has dropped severely, leaving a “very exposed” Chilean economy, at the
mercy of US and China.” Trade protectionism is not friendly to Chile.
China-US trade war has broad-ranging and significant effects for economy,
agriculture and global trade. The trade war always cause destruction in most
cases, so one of the best way to evade the embarrass situation is to find win-
win key. An article by Calgary Herald recommends, “In the long run, we need to
address the structural problems and find ways to enlarge the pie of cooperation
by further opening up the market and allowing more export of value-added high
goods.” [9] And we can also ask the W.T.O. for help. However, the W.T.O. needs
to improve itself as well. A recement by Huang Yuchuan shows that “the W.T.O.
needs to be revamped and strengthened, including with new rules to clarify what
constitutes noncommercial assistance to state-owned enterprises and what
conditions governments can impose on foreign participation in joint ventures.”
[10] Maybe by doing so can reduce China-US trade disputes.
.

[1] Gaia Rizzi, US seeks to weaken China’s high-tech global ambitions, May
16, 2018.
https://globalriskinsights.com/2018/05/us-weaken-chinas-high-tech/
[2] Trump’s tariffs and bad weather take toll on U.S. farmers
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-tariffs-and-bad-weather-take-toll-
on-us-farmers-2019-08-17
[3] China trade war could raise prices on tech products, internet
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trade-war-with-china-threatens-consumer-
technology/
[4] Ron Smith 1, How do agricultural economists view possible trade war? , Apr
06, 2018
https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/how-do-agricultural-economists-view-
possible-trade-war
[5] Trump’s tariffs and bad weather take toll on U.S. farmers
 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-tariffs-and-bad-weather-take-toll-
on-us-farmers-2019-08-17
[6] He, R. et al. (2019) ‘How the trade barrier changes environmental costs
of agricultural production: An implication derived from China’s demand for
soybean caused by the US-China trade war’, Journal of Cleaner Production, 227,
pp. 578–588. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.192.
[7] [9] Canada industries eye growth amid threat of trade war
https://www.pressreader.com/canada/calgary-herald/20180405/282016147893228
[8]. http://news.dwnews.com/china/news/2019-05-22/60134742.html
[10]. The Unlikely, Obvious Solution to the Trade War
https://cn.nytimes.com/opinion/20180927/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-wto/dual/