energies

Article
Transformer Paper Expected Life Estimation Using
ANFIS Based on Oil Characteristics and Dissolved
Gases (Case Study: Indonesian Transformers)
Rahman Azis Prasojo 1, *, Karunika Diwyacitta 1 , Suwarno 1 ID
and Harry Gumilang 2
1 School of Electrical Engineering and Informatics, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung 40132, Indonesia;
karunika.diwyacitta@students.itb.ac.id (K.D.); suwarno@stei.itb.ac.id (S.)
2 PT. PLN (Persero) TJBT, Bandung 40243, Indonesia; gumilang2009@gmail.com
* Correspondence: rahmanazisp@students.itb.ac.id; Tel.: +62-819-448-48246

Received: 7 June 2017; Accepted: 27 July 2017; Published: 2 August 2017

Abstract: This article presents an algorithm for modelling an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) for power transformer paper conditions in order to estimate the transformer’s expected
life. The dielectric characteristics, dissolved gasses, and furfural of 108 running transformers were
collected, which were divided into 76 training datasets and another 32 testing datasets. The degree
of polymerization (DP) of the transformer paper was predicted using the ANFIS model based on
using the dielectric characteristics and dissolved gases as input. These inputs were analyzed, and
the best combination was selected, whereas CO + CO2 , acidity, interfacial tension, and color were
correlated with the paper’s deterioration condition and were chosen as the input variables. The best
combination of input variables and membership function was selected to build the optimal ANFIS
model, which was then compared and evaluated. The proposed ANFIS model has 89.07% training
accuracy and 85.75% testing accuracy and was applied to a transformer paper insulation assessment
and an estimation of the expected life of four Indonesian transformers for which furfural data is
unavailable. This proposed algorithm can be used as a furfural alternative for the general assessment
of transformer paper conditions and the estimation of expected life and provides a helpful assistance
for experts in transformer condition assessment.

Keywords: ANFIS; furanic compounds; degree of polymerization; paper insulation; remaining life;
dissolved gas analysis; dielectric characteristic

1. Introduction
A power transformer is a piece of equipment that is designed for years of usage and generally has
good reliability, with a life expectancy up to 40 years or more. The condition of the transformer naturally
decreases as it is operated because of the processes of aging. However, it may become damaged faster
than normal. During operation, transformers experience things that accelerate aging such as increased
water content, temperature, and oxidation [1]. Without proper maintenance, the aging agents such
as oxygen, heat, and moisture will cause acid formation and other materials that negatively impact
cellulose insulation. Thus, these transformers may become unreliable and incapable of functioning
as expected. The remaining life of a power transformer is an important aspect that the owner of the
transformer needs to know. A good transformer assessment will give better insights on the condition of
the transformer for maintenance purposes. This will result in better power transfer efficiency because
of the smaller loss of opportunity resulting from power outages.
Aging power transformers have become a great concern for providers of electric power around the
world, along with the growing needs of the power system. The oil-cellulose insulation in transformers
will continue aging over a lifetime, and the cellulose insulation cannot be replaced. The aging of

Energies 2017, 10, 1135; doi:10.3390/en10081135 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies

Energies 2017, 10, 1135 2 of 18

oil-immersed cellulose insulation decreases the mechanical strength and further limits the operation of
the transformer [2].
Many data confirm that most of the damage to the transformer is related to the failure of the
insulation system, while the life of the cellulose insulation is the life of the transformer [3]. Failures
of transformers that are operating are commonly dominated by events such as a short circuit or a
lightning strike. Due to the aging on the transformer, the mechanical strength of the paper insulation
will decrease, and short circuit events like this can cause the ultimate failure of the transformer. Due to
their random occurrence, we cannot be certain when the final failure of the transformer is going to
happen. However, if the strength of the latest paper insulation can be known, it is possible to make an
estimation of when these events might occur [1].
Different methods of diagnosis have been used to estimate the insulation degradation rate, i.e.,
dissolved gas analysis (DGA) and the estimation of the aging based on the loading history. Furanic
compounds have been a concern in the past 20 years because they offer measurement of specific
chemical compounds that can be transformed directly into an indicator of the aging of the transformer’s
paper insulation [4].
Furfural testing data of transformers in Indonesia is limited, unlike DGA and dielectric
characteristics. Therefore, it is necessary to find an alternative way to do transformer paper insulation
condition assessments using other test parameters. This study collected 108 transformer testing
datasets, consisting of dielectric characteristics, Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA), and furfural (2FAL).
Several different approaches to paper insulation condition prediction have been reported such as
a Fuzzy based method using interfacial tension and acidity as the input in [5], a Fuzzy Logic model
using CO and CO2 as the input in [6], a ML (Machine Learning) approach using CO2 and acidity as the
input in [7]. The research in [8,9] shows the possibility of using neural networks to predict the furfural
level. Another study uses the loading and temperature history to calculate and predict the degree of
polymerization of the transformer paper, as reported in [10].
ANFIS has been used as estimator in several studies for many purposes. For transformer diagnosis
purposes, various studies report the use of ANFIS to do dissolved gas analysis and complement the
existing methods as shown in [11–13]. For its good purpose as an ultimate estimator [14], this article
presents the development of an ANFIS model to help the experts in transformer paper condition
assessment using widely available data, dielectric characteristics, and dissolved gasses as the input
variables when furfural data is unavailable.

2. Methodology
This study used power transformer test data consisting of dielectric characteristics, dissolved gas
analysis, and furfural. The transformers that were included in this study were 108 transformers with
the nominal voltage of 150 and 500 kV and a capacity of 10 up to 100 MVA. There were 38 units under
30 MVA, 25 units between 30 and 60 MVA, and 45 units 60 MVA and more. All of the transformers used
were mineral-oil immersed free breathing transformers with conservators. The transformers discussed
in this article were already in operation for at least two years up to 53 years. These transformers
underwent routine tests once a year and, if necessary, a few times a year. Dielectric characteristics and
dissolved gas analysis tests are routinely performed, and the test datasets were collected. There are a
lot of factors that influence transformer paper aging; the effects of nominal voltage, capacity, and the
design of transformer on the aging of the paper are beyond the scope of this research and will further
be ignored. Figure 1 shows one of the transformers included in the study. The ANFIS modelling
process will be elaborated below.
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 3 of 18
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 3 of 18

Figure 1. Example of 150/20 kV transformer with a capacity of 60 MVA.

Figure 1. Example of 150/20 kV transformer with a capacity of 60 MVA.
2.1. Transformer Paper Deterioration Indicator
2.1. Transformer Paper Deterioration Indicator
The degree of polymerization test is done in order to measure precisely the degradation of the
paper
The degreeinsulation used in the transformer.
of polymerization Cellulose,
test is done which
in order toismeasure
used as solid transformer
precisely insulation, is of the
the degradation
a linear polymer molecule consisting of hundreds of glucose units.
paper insulation used in the transformer. Cellulose, which is used as solid transformer DP is the average number of
insulation,
glucose molecules that make cellulose chains. The DP value decreases
is a linear polymer molecule consisting of hundreds of glucose units. DP is the average number by the time proportional to of
the broken cellulose molecule. The deterioration rate is highly dependent on the temperature. Based
glucose molecules that make cellulose chains. The DP value decreases by the time proportional to the
on IEEE C57 140 standard, DP values vary from about 1200 for new paper to at least 100 for aging
brokenpaper.
cellulose molecule. The deterioration rate is highly dependent on the temperature. Based on
At DP 200, the paper has lost about 70% of the initial tensile strength. At this point, the paper
IEEE C57becomes brittle andDP
140 standard, thevalues vary from
transformer about 1200
is considered at for
the new
end ofpaper to at
its life least 100
because for lost
it has agingits paper.
At DP mechanical
200, the paper has lost about 70% of the initial tensile strength. At this point, the paper becomes
strength.
brittle and Furans
the transformer
concentrationis considered at the end
is a very important of indicator
aging its life because it has lost and
for the evaluation its mechanical
life assessmentstrength.
of transformers in service [15,16]. Furanic compounds are easier to get than
Furans concentration is a very important aging indicator for the evaluation and life assessment of DP and TS (Tensile
Strength)
transformers inbecause
servicewe only need
[15,16]. to test
Furanic an oil sample
compounds arerather
easierthan taking
to get thanpaper
DP samples of in service
and TS (Tensile Strength)
transformers. The furanic compound is one of the byproducts of the aging of oil-immersed cellulose
because we only need to test an oil sample rather than taking paper samples of in service transformers.
paper and can be directly correlated to the degree of polymerization. Furfural (2FAL) is a compound
The furanic compound is one of the byproducts of the aging of oil-immersed cellulose paper and
that is tested to determine the aging rate of transformer paper. For non-upgraded kraft paper
can betransformers,
directly correlated to the degree
2-Furaldehyde (2FAL), of orpolymerization.
so-called furfural,Furfural
can be (2FAL)
linked is to athe
compound
degree ofthat is
tested polymerization
to determine the aging rate[17]
by Chendong of Equation
transformer
(1). paper. For non-upgraded kraft paper transformers,
2-Furaldehyde (2FAL), or so-called furfural, can be linked to the degree of polymerization by
Log 2FAL − 1.51
Chendong [17] Equation (1). DP = (1)
−0.0035

Log10 2FALppm − 1.51
For a thermally upgraded paper =
DPtransformer, Stebbins (1)
− 0.0035 proposed that Equation (2), a modified
Chendong equation, be used.
For a thermally upgraded paper transformer, Stebbins proposed that Equation (2), a modified
Chendong equation, be used. Log 2FAL × 0.88 − 4.51
DP = (2)
 −0.0035 
Log10 2FALppb × 0.88 − 4.51
DP =System
2.2. Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference (2)
−0.0035
The architecture and learning procedure underlying ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference
2.2. Adaptive
system)Neuro-Fuzzy Inference
is a fuzzy inference System
system implemented in the framework of adaptive networks [13]. By
using a hybrid learning procedure, the proposed ANFIS can construct an input-output mapping
The architecture and learning procedure underlying ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference
based on both human knowledge (in the form of fuzzy logic if-then rules) and stipulated
system) is a fuzzy inference system implemented in the framework of adaptive networks [13]. By using
input-output data pairs [18].
a hybrid learning procedure,
Two of the thetheproposed
first parts of process ofANFIS can construct
fuzzy logic, an input-output
the fuzzification mapping and
of the input parameters based on
both human knowledge
the use of (in the form
the use of membership of fuzzy
functions logic
(MF), areif-then
used in rules)
ANFIS.and The stipulated
difference isinput-output
in the output data
pairs [18].
of the membership functions of Sugeno system, which can be either linear or constant.
Two of the first parts of the process of fuzzy logic, the fuzzification of the input parameters and
the use of the use of membership functions (MF), are used in ANFIS. The difference is in the output of
the membership functions of Sugeno system, which can be either linear or constant.
The structures of two input ANFIS models are shown in Figure 2. By using the input-output data
sets, ANFIS makes a FIS (Fuzzy Inference System). The MF parameters are set by training using a
 Energies
Energies 2017, 10,2017,
113510, 1135 4 of 18 4 of 18

The structures of two input ANFIS models are shown in Figure 2. By using the input-output
data sets, ANFIS makes a FIS (Fuzzy Inference System). The MF parameters are set by training using
hybrid algorithm, which is combination of backpropagation and least squares. This led to the ability of
a hybrid algorithm, which is combination of backpropagation and least squares. This led to the
the FIS system
ability ofto
thelearn the training
FIS system to learn data.
the training data.

Figure 2. Network structure of an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.
Figure 2. Network structure of an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model.
The training obtains as many rule numbers as does the training data as shown below.
The training obtains as many rule numbers
Rule 1: IF x is A1as does
AND y isthe
B1 training
THEN f1 =data
1 as shown below.
Rule 2: IF x is A2 AND y is B1 THEN f2 = 2
Rule 1: IF x is A1 AND y is B1 THEN f 1 = 1
Rule 3: IF x is A1 AND y is B2 THEN f3 = 3
IF x4: is
Rule 2:Rule IF A2
x is AND y isy is
A2 AND THEN ff42==4 2
B1B2THEN
Rule 3:….IFandx issoA1
on AND y is B2 THEN f 3 = 3
Rule 4: IF x is A2 AND y is B2 THEN f 4 = 4
where x and y are the input of the fuzzy logic, and fi is the output of a constant.
. . . . and so on
At the first layer, all nodes are adaptive or the parameters can be changed by Equation (3).
, =μ for = 1,2 or
where x and y are the input of the fuzzy logic, and fi is the output of a constant. (3)
, =or
At the first layer, all nodes are adaptive μ for = 3,4
the parameters can be changed by Equation (3).
With x (or y) as the input from the first node, while Ai or Bi is a linguistic label (high, low,
medium), μ and μ are the membership
O1,i = µ Aifunctions =each
( x ) for i of 1, 2 node.
or
At the second layer, each node is labelled Π, which is non-adaptive. This is obtained by (3)
O1,i = µBi−2 (y) for i = 3, 4
multiplying each input signal to generate an output signal using Equation (4).
With x (or y) as the input from the , first= node,
= μ while . μ Ai or
forBi=is1,2
a linguistic label (high, low,(4)medium),
µ Ai and µBi Each
are the membership
output functions
node represents the of each node.
degree of activation. In the third layer, each node is
At non-adaptive,
the second labelled
layer, each
N, andnode is labelled
its function Π, which
is to normalize is non-adaptive.
the degree of activation by This is obtained
calculating the by
ratio of
multiplying the input
each first node of the
signal previous layer
to generate to all layers
an output of using
signal the previous
Equationoutput.
(4).Equation (5) is as
follows.
O2,i ==wi = µ ( x ).µ
= Ai =Bi
(y), for i = 1, 2
for = 1,2
(4)
,
∑ (5)
+
Each output node represents
In the fourth the degree
layer, each node of activation.
is adaptive, In theEquation
by the following third layer,
(6). each node is non-adaptive,
labelled N, and its function is to normalize the degree of activation by calculating the ratio (6)
of the first
, = . = + + for = 1,2
node of the previous layer to all layers of the previous output. Equation (5) is as follows.
f1 and f2 are fuzzy logic if-then functions, is the output of the third layer, and + +
is an adaptive parameter. w wi
O3,i
In the fifth layer, each =w
node = layer1 is non-adaptive,
ini this = i = 1, 2Σ; this node generates the
, forlabelled (5)
w1 + w2 ∑ wi
output function of the ANFIS system by Equation (7).
In the fourth layer, each node is adaptive, by the following Equation (6).

O4,i = wi . f i = wi ( pi x + qi y + ri ) for i = 1, 2 (6)

f 1 and f 2 are fuzzy logic if-then functions, wi is the output of the third layer, and ( pi x + qi y + ri )
is an adaptive parameter.
In the fifth layer, each node in this layer is non-adaptive, labelled Σ; this node generates the output
function of the ANFIS system by Equation (7).
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 5 of 18

Σ i wi . f i
O5,i = Σi wi . f i = (7)
Σ i wi

2.3. Potential Input Variables

The dielectric characteristics and a dissolved gases test dataset of the transformers were collected
and analyzed in this study.

2.3.1. Dielectric Characteristics

Temperature, water, and oxygen are the main agents of cellulose degradation as well as the
oxidation of the oil. Insulation decomposition is a chemical phenomenon. The three mechanisms
of degradation, namely, hydrolysis, pyrolysis, and oxidation, act simultaneously. Hydrolysis is the
decomposition of a chemical compound by reaction with water. Pyrolysis is the decomposition or
transformation of a compound caused by heat. Oxidation is the combination of a substance with
oxygen [1].
When the transformer insulation undergoes degradation, the dielectric characteristics of the oil
will change from the initial value. The dielectric characteristics parameters used in this article consist of

• Breakdown voltage in kV (IEC 60156-02)

• Water content in ppm (IEC 60814)
• Acidity in mg KOH/g (IEC 62021-1)
• Interfacial tension in dyne/cm (ASTM D 971-99a)
• Color (ISO 2049)

According to [19] acidity, has a relationship with the DP value through the oxidation of insulation
oil that degrades the insulation paper through a hydrolysis process. In a transformer, we expect that
paper aging is the main source of low molecular weight acids. Oil acidity is measured as the sum of all
acids and expressed as the total acid number [2].
Paper aging decomposition is also related to interfacial tension, which is sensitive to the presence
of soluble polar contaminants from solid insulating material [3]. The interfacial tension of oil in a
transformer is the object of one of the tests done to assess the water content in solid insulation according
to [1]. As the time elapsed, the degradation of the oil as well as the paper was indicated by the darker
color of the aged oils [20].

2.3.2. Dissolved Gas Analysis

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) was used to identify the gasses released in the paper-oil composite
insulation as the results of the thermal aging process [20]. Normal operation will also result in the
formation of some gases. In fact, it is possible for some transformers to operate throughout their useful
life with substantial quantities of combustible gases present [21].
Operating a transformer with large quantities of combustible gas present is not a normal
occurrence but it does happen, usually after some degree of investigation and an evaluation of
the possible risk.
The concentration of gasses detected by the DGA test used in this article are:
• H2 (hydrogen)
• CH4 (methane)
• N2 (nitrogen)
• O2 (oxygen)
• CO (carbon monoxide)
• CO2 (carbon dioxide)
• C2 H6 (ethane)
• C2 H4 (ethylene)
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 6 of 18

• CEnergies 2017, 10, 1135

2 H2 (acetylene)
6 of 18

• Tdcg
•
(Total Dissolved Combustible Gas)
C2H2 (acetylene)
• Tdcg (Total Dissolved Combustible Gas)
CO and CO2 are a result of the thermal aging of paper insulation through an oxidation
CO and CO
process [2,3,20]. The 2 are a resultof
amount of dissolved
the thermalcarbon
aging ofmonoxide
paper insulation throughdioxide
and carbon an oxidation process
in oil could be
[2,3,20]. The amount of dissolved carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide in oil could be
correlated with the degree of polymerization and the tensile strength of the paper. When insulating correlated
with
papers arethe degree of polymerization
degraded, their degree of and the tensile strength
polymerization of the paper.
decreases, andWhen
CO andinsulating papers
CO2 are are
generated.
degraded, their degree of polymerization decreases, and CO and CO2 are generated. The higher the
The higher the temperature, the more gasses are generated [22].
temperature, the more gasses are generated [22].
2.4. Modelling ANFIS for Transformer Paper Condition
2.4. Modelling ANFIS for Transformer Paper Condition
The proposed algorithm for building an ANFIS model for transformer paper condition estimation
The proposed algorithm for building an ANFIS model for transformer paper condition
is shown in Figure
estimation 3
is shown in Figure 3

Figure 3. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) flowchart for modelling transformer
Figure 3. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) flowchart for modelling transformer paper
paper condition estimations.
condition estimations.
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 7 of 18

(1) Data Preparation: In the first stage, DP is estimated from 2FAL using Equations (1) and (2).
The correlation of estimated DP and potential variables consists of dielectric characteristics, and
the dissolved gases of transformer oil are analysed. The best combination of input variables for
predicting DP is selected. The data from 108 transformers are then divided into training and
testing datasets. 76 datasets will be used for training, and 32 datasets will be used to evaluate the
proposed model.
(2) ANFIS Modelling: The training dataset is used for building the ANFIS model. The next step is to
find the optimal combination of the Membership Function (MF). The number and type of MF
for each input variable is selected, the model of each combination is trained using the training
dataset, and each model is tested to find the satisfactory combination.
(3) Accuracy Evaluation: The proposed model is tested using the testing datasets, and then the error
is calculated both from training and testing.

2.5. Prediction Accuracy and Evaluation

There are several criteria that can be used to do the performance evaluation of a transformer
paper condition model. The accuracy of the proposed model has been evaluated using these
different methods.

2.5.1. Mean Absolute Error (MAE)

This error evaluation criterion measures the difference between the estimated DP and the
target DP.
1 N
N ∑ i =1 i
MAE = | f − ti | (8)

Equation (8) calculates MAE where fi and ti are respectively the average difference of the estimated
and target DP values of the i transformer, whereas N is the amount of DP predicted [23].

2.5.2. Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE)

This criterion evaluates the prediction error as a percentage of the actual or target DP value using
Equation (9) [24,25].
100% N | f i − ti |
SMAPE =
N ∑ i = 1 (| f i | + | f i |)/2
(9)

Provided that the data are strictly positive, a better measure of relative accuracy can be obtained
based on the log of the accuracy ratio, log (Ft/At). This measure is easier to analyze statistically and
has valuable symmetry and unbiasedness properties [26].

2.5.3. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE)

RMSE is a measure of accuracy to compare the forecasting errors of different models for a
particular variable and not between variables, as it is scale-dependent [27]. This is a criterion that
minimizes the variance of the error distribution. For a target sequence t and forecast sequence f with N
time steps, it is calculated by Equation (10).
r
1 N
RMSE =
N ∑ i=1 ( t i − f i )2 (10)

2.6. Transformer Paper Expected Life Estimation

The result of the ANFIS model is DP prediction. This DP value indicates the condition of the
transformer paper. The life of the paper insulation is the life of the transformer [3]. Estimated
percentage remaining life (%Eprl) can then be calculated using Equation (11).
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 8 of 18

( )
Log10 (DP) − 2.903
%Eprl = 100 − (11)
−0.00602

The DP value of cellulose decreases from its initial value (DP0 ) due to cellulosic chain termination.
The relationship between chain scission (η) and measured DP is calculated using Equation (12).

DP0
η= −1 (12)
DPt

The Arrhenius Equation (13) about the aging of paper is shown below.

1 1 Ea
− = A . e− RT .t (13)
DPt DP0

R is the molar gas constant (8.314 J/mole/K), T is the absolute temperature in Kelvin, and Ea is the
activation energy in kilojoules per mole. A is a constant that is dependent on the chemical conditions.
The chemical degradation of cellulose can be described, as above, by the above equation, which
can be reconstituted into the equation below to determine the residual life of the transformer. In order
to calculate expected life estimation of the transformer in years, Equation (14) is used.

1 1
DPt − DP0 Ea
Remnant Life = × e RT [years] (14)
A × 24 × 365

Equation (15) is completed with coefficients that are needed.

1 1
200 − DP0 111×1000
Remnant Life = × e 8.314∗30+HST+273 [years] (15)
A × 24 × 365

A is a constant using the results of [28,29], which are 2 × 108 for non-upgraded kraft paper and
0.67 × 108 for thermally upgraded paper. HST is the hot spot temperature rise from the hot spot of the
winding. The standard HST in Indonesia is 68 K from IEC (International Electrotechnical Commission)
60076-2 [30] which set the HST of transformer at 78 K and was then corrected using Ka -10. Ea is the
activation energy, which is uncertain depending on the presence of oxygen and water. Based on [31],
which models the remaining lifetime of the power transformer derived from the result of previous
research [28,29], the energy activation used for expected life estimation is 111 kJ/mol.

2.7. Transformer Dielectric Characteristics and Dissolved Gases Data

The predicted DP from the ANFIS model can be used as an alternative expected life estimation
calculation for the transformer paper insulation if the current furfural level is unknown. Tables 1–4
show the dielectric characteristics and dissolved gases data from the three transformers to be assessed
in this paper.

Table 1. Transformer #1.

Voltage (kV) Rated Power (MVA) Phase Running Time (Years)

150/20 20 3 25
Dielectric Characteristic Value DGA Value (ppm)
Water (ppm) 5.64 H2 0
VBD (kV) 92.10 CH4 25
Acidity (mg KOH/g) 0.19 C2 H4 0
IFT (dyne/cm) 13.30 C2 H6 0
Color (0–10) 3.40 C2 H2 19
- - CO 1628
- - CO2 1119
- - TDCG 1673
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 9 of 18

Table 2. Transformer #2.

Voltage (kV) Rated Power (MVA) Phase Running Time (Years)

150/70 100 3 21
Dielectric Characteristic Value DGA Value (ppm)
Water (ppm) 3.93 H2 40
VBD (kV) 66 CH4 0
Acidity 0.06 C2 H4 0
IFT (dyne/cm) 30.60 C2 H6 0
Color (0–10) 2.30 C2 H2 0
- - CO 96.05
- - CO2 2250.10
- - TDCG 96.05

Table 3. Transformer #3.

Voltage (kV) Rated Power (MVA) Phase Running Time (Years)

150/20 60 3 4
Dielectric Characteristic Value DGA Value (ppm)
Water 2.86 H2 0
VBD 65.90 CH4 30.37
Acidity 0.019 C2 H4 0
IFT 30.20 C2 H6 57.67
Color 0.50 C2 H2 0
- - CO 167.84
- - CO2 2787.33
- - TDCG 249.90

Table 4. Transformer #4.

Voltage (kV) Rated Power (MVA) Phase Running Time (Years)

150/20 60 3 20
Dielectric Characteristic Value DGA Value (ppm)
Water 2.80 H2 23
VBD 80 CH4 0
Acidity 0.02 C2 H4 0
IFT 19.89 C2 H6 0
Color 4.80 C2 H2 0
- - CO 910.62
- - CO2 7115.37
- - TDCG 910.62

3. Results and Discussion

From transformed DP based on furfural data collected, a correlation analysis was performed on
each of the dielectric characteristics, as shown in the Table 1. Figure 4 shows the scatterplots of acidity,
interfacial tension, and color. Those three parameters have higher correlation with the DP value than
do water content and voltage breakdown, which is proven by r (correlation coefficient).
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 10 of 18
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 10 of 18

(a) (b)

(c) (d)
Figure 4.4 Scatterplots
Figure ScatterplotsofofDP
DP (Degree
(Degree of Polymerization)
of Polymerization) estimated
estimated versus
versus input input variables.
variables. (a) DP (a) DP
versus
versus Acidity; (b) DP versus Interfacial Tension; (c) DP versus Color; (d) DP versus
Acidity; (b) DP versus Interfacial Tension; (c) DP versus Color; (d) DP versus CO + CO2 . CO + CO 2.

3.1. Input Selection

3.1. Input Selection
3.1.1. Correlation
3.1.1. Correlation Analysis
Analysis
Correlation analysis
Correlation analysis is is aa highly
highly general
general and and therefore
therefore very
very flexible
flexible datadata analytic
analytic system.
system. Basic
Basic
linear regression may be used whenever a quantitative variable, the
linear regression may be used whenever a quantitative variable, the dependent variable is to be studied dependent variable is to be
studied as a function of, or in relationship to, any factors of interest,
as a function of, or in relationship to, any factors of interest, the independent variables [32]. the independent variables [32].
Linear regression
Linear regression is is used
used in in this
this study
study to to find
find the
the highly-correlated
highly-correlated parameters
parameters of of dielectric
dielectric
characteristics and DGA to make a transformer paper condition
characteristics and DGA to make a transformer paper condition assessment model. A correlation assessment model. A correlation
coefficient is
coefficient is aa number
number that that quantifies
quantifies aa type type of of correlation
correlation and and dependence,
dependence, meaningmeaning statistical
statistical
relationships between two or more values in fundamental statistics. The correlation coefficient rr is
relationships between two or more values in fundamental statistics. The correlation coefficient is in
in
the value range of −1 and +1. The closer ‘r’ is to −1 or +1, the more significant
the value range of −1 and +1. The closer ‘r’ is to −1 or +1, the more significant the correlation. If the the correlation. If the
value ofof‘r’‘r’is is
value closer
closer to this
to +1, +1, means
this means that the that the correlation
correlation betweenbetween
two variables two isvariables
positive.isOtherwise,
positive.
if the value of ‘r’ is closer to −1, this means that the correlation between two variables is negative. is
Otherwise, if the value of ‘r’ is closer to −1, this means that the correlation between two variables
negative.
In this study, the correlation is verified by a t-test with α = 0.05. If the value of ‘P’ < α, this means
In this
that the result study, the correlation
of linear regression is is verified
significant.by a t-test with α = 0.05. If the value of ‘P’ < α, this means
that the result of linear regression is significant.
Table 5 shows that acidity, interfacial tension, and color are correlated with DP and are potential
Table 5 shows
as transformer that acidity,
paper condition interfacial
predictors. tension,to and
According [19], color
acidityare
hascorrelated withwith
a relationship DPDPand are
value
potential as transformer paper condition predictors. According to
through the oxidation of the insulation oil that degrades the insulation paper through a hydrolysis [19], acidity has a relationship
with DP value
process. through
Interfacial the oxidation
tension is sensitive of the
to insulation
the presence oil that degrades
of soluble polarthe contaminants
insulation paper through
from solid
a hydrolysis process. Interfacial tension is sensitive to the presence
insulating material [3]. As the time elapsed, the degradation of the oil as well as the paper was of soluble polar contaminants
from solidby
indicated insulating
the darker material
color of[3]. theAs the oils
aged time[20].
elapsed, the degradation of the oil as well as the paper
was indicated by the darker color of
Table 6 shows the correlation analysis of the DGAthe aged oils [20].values, which resulted in TDCG, CO, and CO
2
havingTable 6 shows
relatively highthecorrelation
correlation analysis
with the DP ofvalue.
the DGA TDCG values,
(Totalwhich
Dissolvedresulted in TDCG,Gasses)
Combustible CO, and is
CO2used
not having
as arelatively high correlation
potential predictor becausewith the DP value.
it is originally the sumTDCGof H(Total Dissolved Combustible
2 , CH4 , CO, C2 H2 , C2 H4 , and
Gasses) is not used as a potential predictor because it is originally the sum of H2, CH4, CO, C2H2,
C2H4, and C2H6. The highest concentration of TDCG comes from CO, which makes a high
multicollinearity of CO and TDCG.
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 11 of 18

Energies 2017, 10, 1135 11 of 18

C2 H6 . The highest concentration of TDCG comes from CO, which makes a high multicollinearity of
Table 5. The correlation coefficients of DP against the dielectric characteristics for oil-filled
CO and TDCG.
transformers.
Table 5. The correlation coefficients of DP against the dielectric characteristics for oil-filled transformers.
Dielectric Characteristic r p-Value
Water Content
Dielectric (ppm)
Characteristic −0.244r 0.007
p-Value
Voltage Breakdown (kV) 0.199 0.029
Water Content (ppm) −0.244 0.007
Acidity
Voltage (mg KOH/g)
Breakdown (kV) −0.432
0.199 0.000
0.029
Interfacial Tension
Acidity (dyne/cm)
(mg KOH/g) 0.732
−0.432 0.000
0.000
Interfacial Tension
Color (Scale (dyne/cm)
0–10) 0.732
−0.686 0.000
0.000
Color (Scale 0–10) −0.686 0.000
Table 6. The correlation coefficients of DP against the dissolved gasses for oil-filled transformers.
Table 6. The correlation coefficients of DP against the dissolved gasses for oil-filled transformers.
DGA r p-Value
HDGA
2 (ppm) −0.069
r 0.452
p-Value
CH
H 4 (ppm)
2 (ppm)
−0.087
− 0.069 0.343
0.452
C2H
CH 4 (ppm)
4 (ppm) −
−0.242
0.087 0.008
0.343
CC2H
2H6(ppm)
4 (ppm) − 0.242
−0.044 0.008
0.631
C2 H6 (ppm) −0.044 0.631
C2H2 (ppm) −0.196 0.033
C2 H2 (ppm) −0.196 0.033
TDCG(ppm)
TDCG (ppm) −0.471
− 0.471 0.000
0.000
CO(ppm)
CO (ppm) −0.511
− 0.511 0.000
0.000
CO
CO2 2(ppm)
(ppm) − 0.536
−0.536 0.000
0.000
CO
CO++CO CO 2 2(ppm)
(ppm) − 0.578
−0.578 0.000
0.000

CO and CO2 are are aa result

result of
of thermal
thermal aging
aging of
of paper
paper insulation
insulation through
through oxidation
oxidation process
process [2,3,20].
[2,3,20].
Figure 5 shows the scatterplot
scatterplot ofof CO
CO + CO22 as
as opposed
opposed toto the
the DP
DP value.
value. The
The correlation
correlation coefficient
coefficient (r)
of CO + CO22 is
is the
the highest
highest for
for the
the DGA
DGA values, making it a better potential variable as a transformer
paper condition predictor
predictor than
than other
other forms
forms of
of DGA.
DGA.

Figure 5. Root mean square error (RMSE) graph of 22 membership function combinations.
Figure 5. Root mean square error (RMSE) graph of 22 membership function combinations.

Figure 4 shows the scatterplots of estimated DP versus potential independent variables. The
Figure 4 shows the scatterplots of estimated DP versus potential independent variables.
correlation of DP and acidity was statistically obtained with a correlation coefficient r of −0.432 and a
The correlation of DP and acidity was statistically obtained with a correlation coefficient r of −0.432
p-value less than 0.05. This means that acidity has negative correlation with DP when the
and a p-value less than 0.05. This means that acidity has negative correlation with DP when the
transformer paper is getting worse, the DP value is going down, and the acidity of the oil insulation
transformer paper is getting worse, the DP value is going down, and the acidity of the oil insulation
is increasing.
is increasing.
The correlation of DP and interfacial tension was statistically obtained with a correlation
coefficient r of 0.732 and a p-value less than 0.05. This means that interfacial tension has positive
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 12 of 18

The correlation of DP and interfacial tension was statistically obtained with a correlation coefficient
r of 0.732 and a p-value less than 0.05. This means that interfacial tension has positive correlation with
DP; when the DP value decreased, the interfacial tension of the oil insulation decreased.
The correlation of DP and color was statistically obtained by a correlation coefficient r of −0.686
and a p-value less than 0.05. This means that color has a negative correlation with DP; as the DP value
decreases, the color of the oil insulation is getting darker.
The correlation of DP and CO + CO2 was statistically obtained by a correlation coefficient r of
−0.578 and a p-value less than 0.05. This means that CO + CO2 has a reversed correlation with DP;
as the DP value decreases, the amount of CO + CO2 dissolved in the transformer oil is increased.
From dielectric characteristics, after content and voltage breakdown have relatively low correlation
with the estimated DP. In dissolved gases, H2 , CH4 , C2 H2 , C2 H4 , and C2 H6 have low correlation with
the estimated DP [33]. Therefore, these parameters are not included as further potential input variables.

3.1.2. Various Combination of Input Variables

From the correlation analysis, several independent variables were statistically obtained, including
CO + CO2 , acidity, interfacial tension, and color. The various combinations of these independent
variables were then tested to get the best predictors. Parameters such as R-Sq, R-Sq (adj), R-Sq (pred),
and Mallows Cp are the specifications used in choosing the best predictor model. From Table 7, the best
combination of variables is number 13, which consists of CO + CO2 , acidity, IFT (Interfacial Tension),
and color with the highest R-Sq, while the R-Sq (pred) value is not far from R-Sq (adj), and the mallows
Cp is close to the number of predictors plus one.

Table 7. Various combinations of independent variables for DP prediction.

Number of
R-Sq R-Sq (Adj) R-Sq (Pred) Mallows Cp CO + CO2 Acidity IFT Color
Combination
1 33.6 33.0 31.3 33.2 x
2 18.6 17.9 16.2 66.8 x
3 53.6 53.3 51.9 50.7 x
4 46.9 46.4 45.3 75.0 x
5 61.7 60.7 58.7 7.8 x x
6 53.9 53.1 51.6 3.0 x x
7 47.9 47.0 45.5 3.0 x x
8 60.4 59.4 57.4 10.6 x x
9 51.2 50.4 48.9 3.0 x x
10 50.0 49.1 47.9 3.0 x x
11 64.6 63.2 61.3 3.6 x x x
12 63.0 61.5 59.4 7.1 x x x
13 68.0 66.9 65.6 5.0 x x x x

3.2. Membership Functions Selection

The MF number of each input into the ANFIS model influences the accuracy of DP prediction.
To obtain the optimal ANFIS model, various combinations of membership functions have been tested.
Table 8 shows various combinations of MF numbers used as considerations for selecting the MF
number in creating the ANFIS model.
 4
44 44
4
3
33 33
3
3
33 333 333 333 222 222 TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
143.8 143.8
143.8 143.8
143.8 143.8
274.81 274.81
274.81274.81
274.81 274.81
5 5 3 3 2 2 3 3 TrapMF 116.25 1114.95
55 55 33 33 22 22 333 33 333 TrapMF
TrapMF
33 TrapMF TrapMF
TrapMF
116.25
116.25116.25
116.25 116.25
1114.95
1114.95
1114.951114.95
1114.95
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 13 of 18
6
66 66
6
3
33 33
3
3
33 333 222 222 333 333 TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
131.53 131.53
131.53131.53
131.53 131.53
141.31 141.31
141.31141.31
141.31 141.31
7
77 77
7
3
33 33
3
3 333 333
33 Table 33 333 333 TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 117.58 117.58
117.58117.58
117.58
169.15 169.15
169.15169.15
169.15
8. Various3 combinations TrapMF function
of membership (MF)117.58
numbers. 169.15
8 8 4 4 3 3
33 333 3
33 333 3 TrapMFTrapMF 94.08 94.08 639.51 639.51
88 88 44 44 33 TrapMF
33 TrapMF TrapMF
TrapMF 94.08 94.08
94.08 94.08 639.51639.51
639.51 639.51
No. CO + CO2 Acidity IFT Color MF Type RMSE Training RMSE Testing
9
99 99
9
4
44 1 44
4 4 4 3 3 3
44 2 44 33 2 33 33 2 33 TrapMF
3 TrapMF
TrapMF
2
TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
93.71
93.71
93.71
93.71
93.71
93.71
183.81
1431.84
1431.84
1431.84
254.30
1431.84
1431.84
1431.84
10 10 4 2 4 4 3 4 4 2 4 3 2 3 TrapMF 2 TrapMF
TrapMF 168.81
94.06 94.06 183.02
662.59 662.59
10
10 10 44 3 44
10 44 3 44 44 3 44 33 2 33 TrapMF TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 94.06 94.06
94.06 94.06 662.59662.59
662.59 662.59
2 TrapMF 161.06 296.70
11 11 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 3 4 2
TrapMF TrapMF
TrapMF 83.31143.8
83.31 274.81
1395.161395.16
11
11 11 44 5 44
11 33 3 33 44 2 44 44 3 44 TrapMF TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 83.31 83.31
83.31 83.31 1395.16
1395.161395.16
1395.16
3 TrapMF 116.25 1114.95
12 12 4 6 4 43 4 4 3 4 4 2 4 3
TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 77.43
131.53
77.43 141.31
1886.971886.97
12
12 12 44 7 44
12 44 3 44 44 3 44 44 3 44 TrapMF TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 77.43
77.43 77.43
77.43 1886.97
1886.971886.97
1886.97
3 TrapMF 117.58 169.15
13
13 13 44 8 44 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 TrapMF 3 TrapMF
TrapMF 98.25 98.25
94.08 2089.57
639.51 2089.57
13 13
13 4 9 4 22 4 22 33 4 33 33 3 33 TrapMF TrapMF
3
TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
98.25
98.25 98.25
98.25
93.71
2089.57
2089.572089.57
1431.84 2089.57
14
14 14 44 10 44 2 4 22 33 4 33 33 4 33 TrapMF 3 TrapMF
TrapMF 107.09 107.09
94.06 110.55
662.59 110.55
14 14
14 4 4 22 2 3 3 3 TrapMF
3 TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 107.09
107.09 107.09
107.09 110.55110.55
110.55 110.55
11 4 3 4 4 TrapMF 83.31 1395.16
15 15 5 12 5 2 3
2 4 2 33 4 3 33 4 3 TrapMF 3 4 TrapMF
TrapMF 110.60 110.60
77.43 98.77
1886.97 98.77
15
15 15 55
15 55 22 2 3 3 3 TrapMF
3 TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF 110.60
110.60 110.60
110.60 98.77 98.77
98.77 98.77
13 4 2 3 3 TrapMF 98.25 2089.57
16
16 16 55 14 55
16 55 4 55 55 2 55 55 3 55 TrapMF 3
TrapMFTrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF 53.17 53.17
107.09
53.17 53.17 569.61
110.55 569.61
569.61569.61
16 16 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 TrapMFTrapMF 53.17 53.17 569.61 569.61
15 5 2 3 3 TrapMF 110.60 98.77
16 5 5 5 5 TrapMF 53.17 569.61
A red
A red
redAArowredshows
row row shows
shows shows highaaa testing
a high high testing
testing testing
error error
even even though
though though
the the training
training training
error error
is very is small.
very small.
small.
This This shows
shows shows
A Arowred row
redshows
row shows aa high testing
high error error
error
high testing even though
even
error though
even
even though the training
the training
the
the trainingerror error
error is very
is
errorvery is small.
very
is small.
very small.This shows
This shows
This
This shows
the the overfitting
overfitting
overfitting
the overfitting
overfitting of
of the
the oftraining
the training
training training
model,
model, model,
wherein,
wherein,wherein,when
when when
given
given given aa
a different different transformer
transformer scenario,
scenario, the the
the the Aof
the overfitting redthe
row of the
oftraining
the training
shows model,
a high model,
wherein,
model,
testing wherein,
when
wherein,
error even when
given
when
though aa different
thegiven
given different
training a error transformer
different transformer
transformer
different
is very scenario,
small. scenario,
transformer the
scenario,
the the
the
scenario,
This shows the
tendency
tendency
tendency of
of error of
error
error error
is
isofvery
very is very
high.
high. high.
A A combination
combination
A model,
combination of 15,
ofwhen
15,ofof
the
the 15, the
green
green green
line line
indicates
line indicates
indicatesindicates a
a similarly similarly
low low
trainingtraining
tendency
tendency of
tendency of
of error
overfitting is
errorvery is
the very
very high.
training
is high. A A
A combination
combination
high. wherein,
combinationof 15, the
of 15,
given
15, the
green
the green
a different
line
green line
line aa similarly
indicates
transformer
indicates similarly
scenario, low
aa similarly training
low
low training
the training
low
similarly tendencytraining
error error
and
error error and
testing
andoftesting
testing
and testing
error.
error.
errortesting
is error.
very high. error.
This This
suggests
ThisAsuggests
error. suggests
This suggests
combination that,
that,
suggests that,
although
although
that,
of 15, although
thealthough
green training
training training
line trainingcan can
produce
can produce
indicates produce
acan produce
produce
similarly fairly
fairly fairly
high high
high high
low fairly
training accuracy,
accuracy,
accuracy,
erroraccuracy,
and
error and
error and testing This
error. This that,
suggests although
that, althoughtraining can
training can producefairly high
fairly accuracy,
high accuracy,
when when
whenwhengiven
given given different
different
different
testing error. transformer
transformer
transformer
This transformer
suggests scenarios,
scenarios,
scenarios, the the
resulting
the resulting
that,scenarios,
although resultingresulting
training predictions
predictions
predictions
can produce are
are are
quite
quite
fairly high quite
good.
good. good.
accuracy,
when given
when given
given different
different transformer
different scenarios,
transformer the
scenarios, the
the resulting predictions
predictions
resulting are
predictions are
quite
are quite
good.
quite good.when given
good.
The The
type type
of
different
The type
type
The of MF
type of MF
varies
transformer
MFof varies
MF varies
by by
shape.
scenarios,
by shape.
shape. shape.
After
the After
the
resulting
After After the combination
combination
predictions
the combination
combination ofare of
quite
of variations variations
variations
variations good.in the
in the
theinin the
number
number number
of MFs
of MFs
MFs ofwith
MFs with
with
The Theof MF
type MF varies
ofvaries by
varies by
by shape.
After
shape. the
After the
the combination
combination of of
of variations
in
variations the
the number
number
in of
number of MFs
MFs with
ofwith with
the the highest
highest
the highest
highest
the highest accuracy,
accuracy,typeMF
Theaccuracy,
accuracy, of MF
MF MF
type type
varies
type
MF byselection
selection
selection
type was
shape.
wasAfterwas theperformed
performed
performed with
combination with
respect
with respect respect
to
of variations
respect tointraining
training
to training
training training
theandnumber
and andoftesting
testing
testing testing
RMSE.
MFs RMSE.
with
RMSE.
the accuracy,
the highest accuracy,MF type type selection
MF selection was
selection was
was performed
performedperformed with with
with respect to
respect to
to trainingand and
testing RMSE.
and testing RMSE.
RMSE.
Table Table the9 highest
9 shows
TableTable shows
the accuracy,
the
different different MF shapes
shapes type
andselection
and types ofwas
and types
types
of MF. performed
of MF. with respect to training and testing RMSE.
Table 99 shows
shows
Table Table
the different
99 shows
the
shows
9
different
shows
the
thethe shapes
different
shapes
different
different
shapes
and
shapes
shapes
types
and
types
and
and
of
types
types
MF.of
MF. MF.
ofMF.
of
MF.
Table Table
10
TableTable
10 shows 10 shows
shows
shows
10 shows
the the various
various
the various
various
the various combinations
combinations
combinations
combinations of
of MFMF
MFofoftype.
MF type.
type.
MF type.
AA redred
redAArow red shows
row
red row shows
shows
row shows highaa
aa high high testing
testing
testing
high testing
error error
error error
Table 10
Table 10 10
Table the
shows
shows the
the combinations
various
various combinations
combinations of of of
MF type.
MF
type. A
type.
A redArow shows
redshows
row row showsa ahighhigh a testing
higherror
testing error
testing
even error
even even
though
even even
though though
the the
training
the training
though training
the training
error error
is
error error
training very
is very
veryis
is very
small. small.
This
small.small.
very This
shows
This shows
shows
This shows
the the
the overfitting
shows overfitting
overfitting
overfitting
the overfittingof the
of the
theofof the
training
training
the training
model,
model,
training model,
model,
even though
even the
though the error
training is
error is small.
very This
small. This the
shows the overfitting
though the training error is very small. This shows the overfitting of the training model, where, when of oftraining
the model,
training model,
where,
where,where,
when
when when
given
given given aaa different
a different different transformer
transformer scenario,
scenario, the the tendency
tendencytendencyof of error
error error
can be canverybe high.
very high.
high.
where,where,
when
where,givenwhen
given
when aa different
given
given
a differentdifferent transformer
different
transformer transformer
transformer
transformer
scenario, scenario,
the tendencythe tendency
scenario,
scenario, the
scenario, tendency
ofthe
the tendency
error ofbe
of
can error
of
error can
of can
very error
high.becan
be canvery
verybe high.
very
be high.
very high.
Table Table
9.
Table Table
9.Table9. Different
Different
Different
9. Different
MF MF and
types
MF types
types
MF types
and and shapes.
shapes.
shapes.
shapes.
types and
Table 9. Different
Table Different
9.9. Different
MF MF
MFtypes
and and shapes.
shapes.
types and shapes.
MF MF Type
Type
MF Type
Type
MF Type MF MF Shape
Shape
MF Shape
Shape
MF Shape MF
MFMFMF Type
Type
Type
MF Type MF
MF MF Shape
Shape
Shape
MF Shape
MF MF Type
MF Type MF MF
MF Shape
Shape MF Type
MF Type
Type MF
MF Shape
MF Shape
Shape

TriMFTriMF
TriMFTriMF Gauss2MF
Gauss2MF
Gauss2MF
Gauss2MF
TriMFTriMFTriMF Gauss2MF
Gauss2MF
Gauss2MF

TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF
TrapMF DsigMF
DsigMF
DsigMF
DsigMF
DsigMF
TrapMF
TrapMF DsigMF
DsigMF

GbellMF
GbellMF
GbellMF GbellMF
GbellMF PsigMF
PsigMF
PsigMF
PsigMF
PsigMF
GbellMF
GbellMF PsigMF
PsigMF

GaussMF
GaussMF - - -- --
GaussMF
GaussMF
GaussMF
GaussMF
GaussMF -- - -- ---
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 14 of 18

Table 10. Various combinations of MF types.

No. CO + CO2 Acidity IFT Color MF Type RMSE Training RMSE Testing
15 5 2 3 3 TrapMF 110.60 98.77
17 5 2 3 3 TriMF 346.71 418.75
18 5 5 5 5 GbellMF 106.90 704.50
19 5 2 3 3 GaussMF 90.43 168.33
20 5 2 3 3 Gauss2MF 91.59 149.70
21 5 2 3 3 DsigMF 77.57 580.43
22 5 2 3 3 PsigMF 80.72 2893.2

From the selection of MF types, Table 10 shows that combination 15, with TrapMF (Trapezoid
Membership Function), has the lowest RMSE training and testing values. Figure 6 shows the RMSE
training and testing graph of various combinations of numbers and types of MF. The higher the
graph, the greater the error that occurs. Combination 15 shows the lowest RMSE testing value, with a
relatively low RMSE training value as well.

3.3. ANFIS Model Result and Evaluation

The various parameter inputs to the ANFIS model (CO + CO2 , acidity, IFT, and color) has been
developed based on the 76 transformers that were used as a training data set with the membership
function selection shown in Table 11.

Table 11. Membership function (MF) number and type of created ANFIS model.

Input Variable MF Number MF Type

CO + CO2 5 TrapMF
Acidity 2 TrapMF
Interfacial Tension 3 TrapMF
Color 3 TrapMF

Figure 6 shows the structure of the ANFIS model developed. The prediction result from the
ANFIS model tested uses the testing data set that consists of 32 different transformers from the training
data set. Figure 7 shows the DP value target and the prediction result made by the ANFIS model,
following the error from training and testing dataset.
Figure 7a,b show the estimated DP from the ANFIS model tested using the training dataset and
the testing dataset. Blue dots show the targets of DP, and the red dots show the prediction results of
the ANFIS model. Figure 7c,d show the residual value of the target and prediction results. It can be
seen that the ANFIS is model able to predict the DP value using CO + CO2 , acidity, interfacial tension,
and color as input variables.
The performance indicators in Table 12 suggest that the ability of the ANFIS model to predict
DP from multiple parameters has an accuracy of 89.07% for the training dataset and 85.75% for the
testing dataset.
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 15 of 18
Energies2017,
Energies 2017,10,
10,1135
1135 15
15ofof1818

DPest
DPest

Figure 6. Proposed ANFIS model.

Figure 6. Proposed ANFIS model.

(a) (b)
(a) (b)

(c) (d)
(c) (d)
Figure 7. Results of the ANFIS model. (a) Degree of Polymerization prediction results of 76 training
Figure 7. Results
transformers; ofResidual
(b)of the ANFIS model.
value (a)target
of DP(a) Degree
andof Polymerization prediction results of 76 training
Figure 7. Results the ANFIS model. Degree ofprediction resultsprediction
Polymerization of 32 testing transformers;
results (c)
of 76 training
transformers;
Residual (b)
value ofResidual
DP targetvalue
and of DP target
prediction and
results prediction
of 76 results
training of 32
transformers;testing
(d) transformers;
Residual value (c)
of
transformers; (b) Residual value of DP target and prediction results of 32 testing transformers;
Residual
DP targetvalue
and of DP target
prediction and prediction
results 32 testingresults of 76 training transformers; (d) Residual value of
(c) Residual value of DP target andofprediction transformers.
results of 76 training transformers; (d) Residual value of
DP target and prediction results of 32 testing transformers.
DP target and prediction results of 32 testing transformers.
Table 12. Evaluation criteria of the model.
Table 12. Evaluation criteria of the model.
Table 12. Evaluation criteria of the model.Training
Criteria Testing
Criteria
Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Training
85.57 Testing
85.52
Mean
Root Criteria
Absolute
Mean SquareError
Error(MAE)
(RMSE) Training
85.57
110.60 Testing
85.52
98.77
Mean
SymmetricalRoot Absolute
Mean
Mean ErrorPercentage
Square
Absolute (MAE) Error (SMAPE) 85.57
Error (RMSE) 110.60
10.93% 85.52
98.77
14.25%
RootMean
Symmetrical Mean Square Error
Accuracy
Absolute(100–%(RMSE)
error) Error (SMAPE) 110.60
Percentage 89.07%
10.93% 98.77
85.75%
14.25%
Symmetrical Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE) 10.93% 14.25%
Accuracy (100–%
Accuracy (100–% error)
error) 89.07%
89.07%
85.75%
85.75%
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 16 of 18

3.4. Expected Life Estimation of Transformer Paper Insulation

In order to estimate the expected life of four transformers in Tables 1–4, dielectric characteristics
and dissolved gases data are used to predict the condition of transformer paper based on degree of
polymerization. The ANFIS model proposed in this article is used to predict the DP of transformer
paper. This predicted DP is then used to estimate the expected life of transformer paper using
Equation (13). The result of the DP prediction and the expected life estimation is shown in Table 13.

Table 13. Expected life estimation.

DP Predicted Expected Life

Transformer Running Time Interpretation %Eprl
(ANFIS) Estimated (Years)
#1 25 years 597.88 Accelerated Aging Rate 79.06% 8.05
#2 21 years 676.87 Normal Aging Rate 90.79% 8.67
#3 4 years 1044.46 Normal Aging Rate 119.25% 29.2
#4 20 years 369 Accelerated Aging Rate 44.25% 5.55

The results of expected life estimation from four Indonesian transformers show that Transformer
#1 has 8.05 more years of life expectancy for transformer paper insulation. Transformer #2 is similar
with 8.67 years, while Transformer #4 is in worse condition with 5.55 years of life expectancy.
Transformer #3, on the other hand, has only been in use for four years and still has 29.2 years of
life expectancy. Each estimated expected life span is result of the paper condition prediction using
the ANFIS model based on using dielectric characteristics and dissolved gases as input variables.
This expected life estimation result means that, as long as the hotspot temperature rise of the
transformer is to be kept below 68 K (IEC 60076-2), the transformer paper life expectancy estimated
should be more than that estimated in Table 13.

4. Conclusions
An algorithm for building an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model for power
transformer paper condition and expected life estimation is presented in this article. The combination
of CO + CO2 , acidity, interfacial tension, and color were used as input variables to estimate the
transformer paper condition. The proposed ANFIS model has 89.07% training accuracy and 85.75%
testing accuracy and was applied to transformer paper insulation assessment and an expected life
estimation of four Indonesian transformers for which furfural data is unavailable.
It can be seen that the proposed ANFIS model can be used to do a general estimation of the
transformer paper condition and expected life when furfural data is unavailable. This algorithm acts as
a helpful assistance for experts in transformer condition assessment. However, more confident
engineering decisions on transformer paper condition assessment can be established when the
transformers have furfural data as a main parameter.

Author Contributions: The paper was a collaborative effort between the authors. The authors contributed
collectively to the theoretical analysis, modeling, simulation, and manuscript preparation.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

References
1. CIGRE 227. Life Management Techniques for Power Transformer; CIGRE: Paris, France, 2003.
2. CIGRE 323. Ageing of Cellulose in Mineral-Oil Insulated Transformers; CIGRE: Paris, France, 2007.
3. Myers, S.; Kelly, J.; Parrish, R. A Guide to Transformer Maintenance; Transformer Maintenance Institute: Akron,
OH, USA, 1981.
4. Cheim, L.; Platts, D.; Prevost, T.; Xu, S. Furan Analysis for Liquid Power Transformers. IEEE Electr. Insul. Mag.
2012, 28, 14. [CrossRef]
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 17 of 18

5. Forouhari, S.; Abu-Siada, A. Remnant Life Estimation of Power Transformer Based on IFT and Acidity
Number of Transformer Oil. In Proceedings of the International Conference on the Properties and Application
of Dielectric Materials, Sydney, Australia, 19–22 July 2015.
6. Malik, H.; Kushwaha, N.; Suryakant; Yadav, A.K. Paper Insulation Deterioration Estimation of Power
Transformer Using Fuzzy-Logic. In Proceedings of the 2011 Annual IEEE India Conference (INDICON),
Hyderabad, India, 16–18 December 2011.
7. Shaban, K.B.; El-Hag, A.H.; Benhmed, K. Prediction of Transformer Furan Levels. IEEE Trans. Power Deliv.
2016, 31, 1778–1779. [CrossRef]
8. Ghunem, R.A.; Assaleh, K.; El-Hag, A.H. Artificial Neural Networks with Stepwise Regression for Predicting
Transformer Oil Furan Content. IEEE Trans. Dielectr. Electr. Insul. 2012, 19, 414–420. [CrossRef]
9. Khan, S.A.; Equbal, M.D.; Islam, T. ANFIS Based Identification and Location of Paper Insulation Faults of
an Oil Immersed Transformer. In Proceedings of the 2014 6th IEEE Power India International Conference
(PIICON), Delhi, India, 5–7 December 2014.
10. Hanung, N.S.; Nanang, H.; Mizutani, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Okamoto, T. Degree of Polymerization Estimation of
Insulation Papers in Power Transformers Based on Load and Temperature Histories in Java-Bali Region of
Indonesia National Electric Company. In Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Condition
Monitoring and Diagnosis (CMD), Bali, Indonesia, 23–27 September 2012.
11. Hu, W.P.; Wang, X.W.; Yin, X.G. Study on Fault Diagnosis for Transformer Based on Adaptive Fuzzy Inference
System. In Proceedings of the China International Conference on Electricity Distribution, Guangzhou, China,
10–13 December 2008.
12. Vani, A. An Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for Fault Detection in Transformers by ANalyzing
Dissolved Gases. In Proceedings of the 2014 1st International Conference on Information Technology,
Computer and Electrical Engineering (ICITACEE), Semarang, Indonesia, 8 November 2014.
13. Jang, J.S.R.; Sun, C. Neuro-fuzzy modeling and control. Proc. IEEE 1995, 83, 378–406. [CrossRef]
14. Jang, J.S.R.; Sun, C.T.; Mizutani, E. Neuro-Fuzzy and Soft Computing; Pearson: Hongkong, China, 1997.
15. Hohlein, I.; Kachler, A.J. Aging of Cellulose at Transformer Service Temperatures. Part 2. Influence of
Moisture and Temperature on Degree of Polymerization and Formation of Furanic Compounds in Free
Breathing Systems. IEEE Electr. Insul. Mag. 2005, 21, 20–24. [CrossRef]
16. Wang, Z.D.; Liu, Q.; Tee, S.J.; Matharage, S.Y.; Jarman, P.; Wilson, G.; Hooton, R.; Dyer, P.; WalNer, D.;
Krause, C.; et al. Ageing Assessment of Transformers through Oil Test Database Analyses and Alternative
Diagnostic Techniques. In Proceedings of the 2015 CIGRE SC A2 Colloquium, Shanghai, China,
20–25 September 2015.
17. Chendong, X. Monitoring paper insulation ageing by measuring furfural contents in oil. In Proceedings of
the Seventh International Symposium on High Voltage Engineering, Dresden, Germany, 26–30 August 1991.
18. Jang, J.-S.R. ANFIS: Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System. IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. 1993,
23, 665–685. [CrossRef]
19. Gumilang, H. Hydrolysis Process in PLN P3BJB Transformers as an Effect of Oil Insulation Oxidation.
In Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis (CMD), Bali,
Indonesia, 23–27 September 2012.
20. Suwarno, S.; Pasaribu, R.A. Thermal Aging of Mineral Oil-Paper Composite Insulation for High Voltage
Transformer. Int. J. Electr. Eng. Inform. 2016, 8, 820–835. [CrossRef]
21. IEEE Std. C57.104: IEEE Guide for the Interpretation of Gasses Generated in Oil-Immersed Transformers; IEEE:
New York, NY, USA, 2009.
22. Yoshida, H.; Ishioka, Y.; Suzuki, T.; Yanari, T.; Teranishi, T. Degradation of Insulating materials of
Transformers. IEEE Trans. Electr. Insul. 1987, EI-22, 795–800. [CrossRef]
23. Willmott, C.J.; Matsuura, K. Advantages of the mean absolute error (MAE) over the root mean square error
(RMSE) in assessing average model performance. Clim. Res. 2005, 30, 79–82. [CrossRef]
24. Amstrong, J.S. Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystall Ball to Computer; Wiley: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 1985.
25. Flores, B.E. A Pragmatic View of Accuracy Measurement in Forecasting. Omega 1986, 14, 93–98. [CrossRef]
26. Tofallis, C. A Better Measure of Relative Prediction Accuracy for Model Selection and Model Estimation.
J. Oper. Res. Soc. 2015, 66, 1352–1362. [CrossRef]
27. Hyndman, R.J.; Koehler, A.B. Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy. Int. J. Forecast. 2006, 22,
679–688. [CrossRef]
Energies 2017, 10, 1135 18 of 18

28. Emsley, A.; Stevens, G. Review of Chemical Indicators of Degradation of Cellulosic Electrical Paper Insulation
in Oil-Filled Transformers. IEE Proc. Sci. Meas. Technol. 1994, 141, 324–334. [CrossRef]
29. Lundgaard, L.E.; Hansen, W.; Linhjell, D.; Painter, T.J. Aging of Oil-Impregnated Paper in Power
Transformers. IEEE Trans. Power Deliv. 2004, 19, 230–239. [CrossRef]
30. IEC 60076–2. Power Transformers—Temperature Rise for Liquid Immersed Transformers; IEC: Geneva,
Switzerland, 2011.
31. Wouters, P.A.; van Schijndel, A.; Wetzer, J.M. Remaining lifetime modeling of power transformers: Individual
assets and fleets. IEEE Electr. Insul. Mag. 2011, 27, 45–51. [CrossRef]
32. Cohen, J.; Cohen, P.; West, S.G.; Aiken, L.S. Applied Multiple Regression/Correlation Analysis for the Behavioral
Sciences; Taylor & Francis Inc: Oxford, NY, USA, 1975.
33. Prasojo, R.A.; Diwyacitta, K.; Suwarno. Transformer Paper Condition Assessment using Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Electrical Engineering
and Computer Science, Palembang, Indonesia, 22–23 August 2017.

© 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access
article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution
(CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).