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In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best
technology of four possible, whose performance depends on the
adaptation of the workers who will manipulate the equipments that
comprise it. The expected benefits of each alternative and degree of
adaptation of the workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($).
For Hurwicz please assume an alpha of 0,7.
Solución
1. Laplace
1/5. 1/5. 1/5. 1/5. 1/5.
Event
Does no Fits Fits Fits very Valor
Alternative Fits well
fit acceptably successfully well esperado
Technology
2118 2168 2213 2265 2330 2218,8
1
Technology
2109 2158 2245 2252 2328 2218,4
2
Technology
2145 2177 2232 2256 2303 2222,6
3
Technology
2130 2166 2206 2255 2322 2215,8
4
Technology
2128 2165 2213 2275 2335 2223,2
5
Mediante el método Laplace, la mejor tecnología que se debe implantar en la
compañía ABC es la tecnología 5, con un beneficio esperado de 2223,2.
Wald or pessimistic
Event
Technology
2118 2168 2213 2265 2330
1
Technology
2109 2158 2245 2252 2328
2
Technology
2145 2177 2232 2256 2303
3
Technology
2130 2166 2206 2255 2322
4
Technology
2128 2165 2213 2275 2335
5
Technology
2118 2168 2213 2265 2330
1
Technology
2109 2158 2245 2252 2328
2
Technology
2145 2177 2232 2256 2303
3
Technology
2130 2166 2206 2255 2322
4
Technology
2128 2165 2213 2275 2335
5
Technology
2118 2168 2213 2265 2330 2266,4
1
Technology
2109 2158 2245 2252 2328 2262,3
2
Technology
2145 2177 2232 2256 2303 2255,6
3
Technology
2130 2166 2206 2255 2322 2264,4
4
Technology
2128 2165 2213 2275 2335 2272,9
5
Solución:
Criteria of Laplace
Event
Valor
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
Esperado
e1(610) 2109 2197 2236 2271 2332 2229
e2(630) 2112 2152 2228 2281 2315 2217,6
e3(680) 2137 2168 2240 2275 2317 2227,4
e4(715) 2110 2176 2238 2286 2331 2228,2
e5(730) 2136 2173 2243 2287 2329 2233,6
La mejor alternativa seria la e5(730), esperando tener un beneficio de 2233,6
Wald or pessimistic
Event
Optimistic
Event
Hurwicz
Asumiendo un valor de alfa de 0,75, la mejor opción sería la e5(730), con un valor
de 2280,75.
Savage
Event
Se escogería la opción de menor coso que sería la e5(730), con un valor de 24.
Solución:
Criteria of Laplace
Event
Valor
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
Esperado
e1(610) 1147 1152 1238 1283 1311 1226,2
e2(630) 1109 1193 1222 1298 1314 1227,2
e3(680) 1106 1181 1245 1281 1346 1231,8
e4(715) 1134 1177 1249 1276 1349 1237
e5(730) 1149 1197 1248 1260 1328 1236,4
Wald or pessimistic
Event
Optimistic
Event
Hurwicz
A1 = 1311*0,55 + 1147 * (1-0,55) = 1237,2
A2 = 1314*0,55 + 1109 * (1-0,55) = 1221,75
A3 = 1346*0,55 + 1106 * (1-0,55) = 1238
A4 = 1349*0,55 + 1134 * (1-0,55) = 1252,25
A5 = 1328*0,55 + 1149 * (1-0,55) = 1247,45
Event
Event
Valor
Alternative e1(610) e2(630) e3(680) e4(715) e5(730)
Esperado
Player 2
Strategy
A B C
Player I 27 33 38
1 II 19 25 31
According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical
method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.
Solución
Player 2
Strategy
A B Min-Max
I 27 35 27
Strategy II 31 35 31
II 33 37 33
Max-min 33 37
Player 2: y1 + y2 + y3 = 1 y1 = 1 – y2 – y3
X1 = 27y1 + 33y2 + 38y3
X1 = 27 (1-Y2-Y3) + 33Y2 + 38Y3
X1 = 27 + 6Y2 + 11Y3
X2 =19Y1 + 25Y2+31Y3
X2=19(1-Y2-Y3)+25Y2+31Y3
X2=19+6Y2+12Y3
Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 35
Player 1 II 31 35
II 33 37
According to Table 5, find the value of the game by means of the graphical
method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.
Solución
Player 2
Strategy
A B C Min-Max
I 27 33 38 27
Strategy
II 19 25 31 19
Max-min 27 33 38
Player 1: X1+X2+X3=1
X1=27Y1+35Y2
X2=31Y1+35Y2
X3=33Y1+37Y2
X3=33Y1+37Y2
X3=33(1-Y2)+37Y2
X3=33+4Y2
PLAYER B
81 83 81 80 91
PLAYER A
84 83 86 86 82
82 78 86 89 84
87 87 91 89 88
83 85 35 88 81
Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game,
using the proposed Excel tool, according to the data in table 6.
Solución
PLAYER B Min-Max
PLAYER A
81 83 81 80 91 80
84 83 86 86 82 82
82 78 86 89 84 78
87 87 91 89 88 87
83 85 35 88 81 35
Max-min 87 87 91 89 91