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Estimating Population Proportion, Length of EXAMPLE 3:

Confidence Interval & Sample Size


Tell if the sample used in proportion case is small
Definition: or large.
1. 𝑝̂ = 0.71, 𝜎𝑝 = 0.099
Proportion represent a part of a whole, like probability, it 𝑝̂ ± 3𝜎𝑝 = (𝑝̂ − 3𝜎𝑝 , 𝑝̂ + 3𝜎𝑝 )
can be expressed in percent, decimal, or fraction. = (0.71 – 3(0.099), 0.71 + 3(0.099))
= (0.413, 1.007)
The following variables will be used in the lesson:
Since the interval (0.413, 1.007) includes 1,
n = number of observations in a simple random sample therefore the proportion comes from a small sample size.
or sample size
𝑝̂ = sample proportion (read as “p hat”) 2. 𝑝̂ = 0.26, 𝜎𝑝 = 0.064
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
= 𝑝̂ ± 3𝜎𝑝 = (𝑝̂ − 3𝜎𝑝 , 𝑝̂ + 3𝜎𝑝 )
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠
p = population proportion = (0.26 – 3(0.064), 0.26 + 3(0.064))
𝑞̂ = 1 - 𝑝̂ = estimates proportion not 𝑝̂ = (0.068, 0.452)

EXAMPLE 1: Since the interval (0.068, 0.452) does not include


0 or 1, therefore the proportion comes from a large
In a job satisfaction survey in a certain mall, 700 sample size.
employees were asked if they were satisfied with their
jobs. There were 518 responded with a YES. What Definition:
proportion is this? What proportion responded with a NO?
x= 518 n = 700 The confidence interval of the sample proportion
is
𝑋 518
𝑝̂ = = = 0.74 𝑜𝑟 74%
𝑛 700 𝑝̂𝑞̂ 𝑝̂𝑞̂ 𝑝̂𝑞̂
𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.74 = 0.26 𝑜𝑟 26% 𝑝̂ − 𝑧𝛼 √ < 𝑝 < 𝑝̂ + 𝑧𝛼 √ = 𝑝̂ ± 𝑧𝛼 √
2 𝑛 2 𝑛 2 𝑛

The proportion of YES responses is 0.74 and the 𝑝̂𝑞̂ 𝑝̂𝑞̂


NO responses is 0.26. These mean that 74% of the = (𝑝̂ − 𝑧𝛼 √ , 𝑝̂ + 𝑧𝛼 √ ) .
2 𝑛 2 𝑛
respondents are satisfied with their job while 26% are not.
𝑝̂𝑞̂
The standard error of the estimate is √ .
𝑛
̂.
Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution of 𝒑
𝑝̂𝑞̂
The margin of error E of the estimate is 𝑧𝛼 √ .
𝑛
1. 2

2. The mean of the sampling distribution of 𝑝̂ is p;


that is 𝑝̂ is the unbiased estimator of p. EXAMPLE 4:
3. The standard deviation of the sampling
A survey of 1200 citizens showed that 715 trust
𝑝𝑞
distribution of 𝑝̂ is 𝜎𝑝 = √ . the President. Compute a 95% confidence interval for the
𝑛
proportion of all citizens who trust the president.
4. For large samples, the sampling distribution of 𝑝̂
is approximately normal. A sample size is
X = 715 n = 1200 𝑧𝛼 = 1.960
considered large if the interval 𝑝̂ ± 3𝜎𝑝 does not 2
include 0 (like p = 0.001) or 1 (like p = 0.99).
𝑋 715
𝑝̂ = = = 0.5958 𝑜𝑟 59.58%
𝑛 1200
Thus, the point estimate of the population proportion 𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.5958 = 0.4042 𝑜𝑟 40.42%
is 74%. This means that if we were to draw random
samples of 700 people over and over again, each time
𝑝̂𝑞̂ 𝑝̂𝑞̂
calculating a 𝑝̂ , like the sampling distribution of means, (𝑝̂ − 𝑧𝛼 √ , 𝑝̂ + 𝑧𝛼 √ ) =
2 𝑛 2 𝑛
the mean proportion would be 74%.
(0.5958)(0.4042) (0.5958)(0.4042)
(0.5958 − 1.960√ , 0.5958 + 1.960√ )
EXAMPLE 2: 1200 1200

= (0.5680, 0.6236)
What is the point estimate and the standard
deviation of the proportion of 30 BS Mechanical With 95% confidence, the interval from 56.80% to
Engineering (ME) graduates from the batch with 350 62.36% contains the true percentage of all citizens who
graduates? trust the President.
X = 30 n = 350
𝑋 30 Definition:
𝑝̂ = = = 0.0857 𝑜𝑟 8.57%
𝑛 350
𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.0857 = 0.9143 𝑜𝑟 91.43%
Length of confidence interval
𝑝𝑞 (0.0857)(0.9143)
𝜎𝑝 = √ = √ ≈ 0.015 If the confidence interval is given, then the length of an
𝑛 350
interval can be determined using
The point estimate of the proportion of 30 BS 𝐿𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ = 𝑈 − 𝐿 = 𝑈𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝐿𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 − 𝐿𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 𝐿𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡.
Mechanical Engineering graduates is 0.0857 or 8.57%.
The standard deviation is 0.015. If the confidence interval is not given, then the length of
an interval can be determined by

𝜎
𝐿𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ = 2𝑧𝛼 ( )
2 √𝑛
EXAMPLE 5: SAMPLE SIZE WHEN ESTIMATING A POPULATION
PROPORTION
A marketing officer is 99% confident that their usual
female customers have a mean height of 166 cm to 174 In computing the sample size for estimating a population
cm. How long is the interval? proportion, there are two situations to bear in mind:

U = 174 cm L = 166 cm 1. If some approximation of 𝑝̂ is known, that value may be


used in the formula.
𝐿𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑡ℎ = 𝑈 − 𝐿 = 174 𝑐𝑚 − 166 𝑐𝑚
= 8 𝑐𝑚 2. If no approximation is known, use 𝑝̂ = 0.5. This value
will result in a sample size large enough to guarantee
The confidence interval has a length of 8 cm. prediction, given the confidence interval and the error of
estimate. The reason is that when 𝑝̂ and 𝑞̂ are 0.5 each,
EXAMPLE 6: this will give the maximum product of proportions.

A researcher wants to estimate the number of hours that EXAMPLE 8:


5-year old children spend watching television. A sample
of 50 five-year old children was observed to have a mean Mary wants to know, with 95% confidence, the proportion
viewing time of 3 hours. The population is normally of households who like to use detergent X. A previous
distributed with a population standard deviation of 0.5 survey showed that 42% like to use detergent X. Mary
hours at 95% confidence interval of the population mean, likes to be accurate within 2% of the true proportion. What
how long is the confidence interval? sample size does Mary need?

Confidence Interval is not given, therefore we use: z = 1.960, 𝑝̂ = 0.42, E = 0.02


𝜎
Length = 2𝑧𝛼 ( )
2 √𝑛 𝑧𝛼 2
Solve for 𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ ( 2 )
𝐸
n = 50 𝑥̅ = 3 hours,
𝑞̂ = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58
𝜎 = 0.5 hours z = 1.960 𝑧𝛼 2 1.960 2
𝜎 0.5
𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ ( 2 ) = (0.42)(0.58) ( )
Length = 2𝑧𝛼 ( ) = 2(1.960) ( ) 𝐸 0.02
√𝑛 √50
2 = 2,339.5344 ≈ 2340
= 0.2772 or 0.28 hours
PROBLEM SET:
Definition:
1. In a certain food stall, 278 out of 500 randomly
Sample Size Solving selected consumers indicate their preference for
a new kind of food combination. Use a 99%
From the formula of margin of error confidence interval to estimate the true proportion
𝒛𝜶 ⋅ 𝝈 𝟐
𝟐 who like the new food combination. Find the point
For population: 𝒏 = ( )
𝑬 estimate and the confidence interval.
𝑧𝛼 2
For population proportion: 𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ ( 2 ) 2. For a random sample of 50 measurements on the
𝐸
breaking strength of cotton threads, the mean
EXAMPLE 7: breaking strength was found to be 210 grams and
the standard deviation of 18 grams. What is the
Jung Joon-hyung wants to replicate a study where the length of the confidence interval for the true mean
lowest observed value is 12.4 while the highest is 12.8. breaking strength of cotton threads if the
He wants to estimate the population mean 𝜇 to within an confidence coefficient is 0.90?
error of 0.025 of its true value. Using 99% confidence
level, find the sample size 𝑛 that he needs. 3. In a certain village, Leony wants to estimate the
mean weight 𝜇, in kilograms, of all six-year old
L = 12.4 U = 12.8 children to be included in a feeding program. She
E = 0.025 𝑧𝛼 = 2.576 wants to be 99% confident that the estimate of 𝜇
2 is accurate to within 0.06 kg. Suppose from a
previous study, the standard deviation of the
According to the Range Rule of Thumb, the Range, R, is weights of the target population was 0.5 kg, what
about 4 times the Standard Deviation, 𝜎, therefore should the sample size be?
R=4𝜎

𝑅 𝑈−𝐿 12.8 − 12.4 0.4


𝜎= = = = = 0.1
4 4 4 4

𝑧𝛼 ⋅ 𝜎 2
2
Solve for 𝑛 = ( )
𝐸
2
𝑧𝛼 ⋅ 𝜎 (2.576)(0.1) 2
2
𝑛= ( ) = [ ] = 106.172416 ≈ 107
𝐸 0.025