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A sliding-consolidation model for flow slides

J. N. HUTCHINSON
Department of Civil Engineering, Imperial College, London SW7 2BU, England
Received July 16, 1985
Accepted January 10, 1986
A model is proposed for the behaviour of flow slides in loose, cohesionless materials in which the debris spreads out as a
uniform sheet. Excess pore-fluid pressures are assumed to be generated, for example by undrained loading arising from the
collapse of metastable structure, in the source area of the flow slide. Under the influence of these, the leading element of the
debris moves downslope by basal sliding, consolidating as it does so by single, upward drainage. As a result, the pore pressure
at the base of the element eventually decays to a value that brings the element to rest, hence defining the run-out of the flow
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slide. The model is applicable, in principle, to subaqueous and subaerial flow slides and to pore fluids consisting of water, gas,
or both of these. The predictions of the model are tested against the observed behaviour and measured properties of the 1966
flow slide at Aberfan, South Wales. The results show that a sliding-consolidation model provides a possible mechanism for
that event.
Key words: Cohesionless material, loose metastable structure, partial liquefaction, excess pore-fluid pressure, basal sliding,
consolidation, flow slide, acceleration, velocity, run-out.

L'on propose un modble de comportement des coulCes dans les matCriaux pulvCrulents meubles dans lesquelles les debris
s'Ctendent en une couche uniforme. I1 est suppost5 qu'un excCdent de pressions interstitielles est gCnCrC dans la zone oh
origine la coulee, comme par exemple, B la suite d'une mise en charge non drainCe rCsultant de l'affaissement de la
structure mCtastable. Sous l'influence de ces pressions, lClCment frontal des debris descend la pente en glissant sur sa base
tout en se consolidant par drainage simple vers le haut. I1 en rtsulte que la pression interstitielle a la base de 1'ClCment
se dissipe Cventuellementjusqu'a une valeur telle que le mouvement de I'Cltment cesse, amenant ainsi l'tpuisement de la coulee.
Le modble est applicable, en principe, aux coulCes sous-marines et terrestres, et aux fluides interstitiels comprenant de l'eau,
du gaz ou des deux. Les prCdictions du modble sont vCrifiCes par comparaison avec le comportement observC et en utilisant
les propriCtCs mesurkes de la coulCe de 1966 2 Aberfan, South Wales. Les resultats dCmontrent que le modkle glissement-
For personal use only.

consolidation foumit un mCcanisme possible our cet Cvbnement.


Mots elks: matCriau pulvtrulent, structure ldche mCtastable, liquefaction partielle, exctdent de pression interstitielle, glisse-
ment a la base, consolidation, coulCes, accClCration, vitesse, tpuisement.
[Traduit par la revue]
Can. Geotech. .I.
23, 115-126 (1986)

Introduction Sliding-consolidation model


Following Koppejan et al. (1948), Terzaghi and Peck (1948), For the reasons given subsequently, the subaerial flow slide
Seed (1968), Bishop et al. (1969), and Bjerrum (197 l), the term (illustratedschematically in Fig. 1a) rather than the subaqueous
"flow slide" is used here to describe a slope failure involving the flow slide is used as a basis for the proposed model. The
collapse of metastable structure in a loose, cohesionless mass. treatment applies, in principle, to both types and to cases in
The collapse is triggered by some disturbance, commonly which the pore fluid is water, a gas, or a combination of these.
earthquake shaking, blasting, pile-driving, or a landslide For simplicity, the analysis is made in terms of pore-water
movement. The resulting undrained loading can generate high pressures.
excess pressures in the pore fluid, which lead to a sudden and A mass of loose, cohesionless debris, saturated in its lower
considerable temporary loss of shear strength and a correspond- part and having a relatively steep front face, is considered (Fig.
ingly high mobility in the moving debris, even on very gentle la). This rests upon and is fronted by a gentler slope AD, with
slopes. The pore fluid is usually water, or air, or some an inclination less than A, the angle of ultimate stability against
combination of these. landsliding (Skempton and Hutchinson 1969) for the debris. As
Flow slides occur in a wide variety of situations, commonly a result, excess pore-water pressures are required to permit
under wholly or partly subaqueous conditions (e.g., Heim 1908; movement of the debris down this slope by translational sliding.
Koppejan et al. 1948; Casagrande 1965; Andresen and Bjermm These excess pore-water pressures are assumed to be generated,
1967; Bjerrum 1971; Torrey and Weaver 1984). Subaerial flow between A and B, by an undrained loading, resulting from, for
slides in waste tips are now becoming more frequent, however, example, the collapse of metastable structure in the saturated
as the number and size of these increases (e.g., Dorby and zone of the loose, contractant debris' following a landslide
Alvarez 1967; Davies 1968; Bishop 1973; Blight 1977; Camp- movement (as in Fig. 1a) or one of the other types of disturbance
bell and Shaw 1978; Eckersley 1984). mentioned earlier. Transformation of the failing mass into a
In connection with subaqueous flow slides in fine-grained debris sheet of substantially uniform thickness 6 is assumed to
cohesionless soils, Terzaghi (1956) suggested that the "spon- take place in a transition length 1 (Fig. la). The material
taneous liquefaction" of such materials would result in their forming the slope BD is assumed not to be involved in the
degree of consolidation dropping abruptly, though temporarily, movement of the flow slide.
to a value close to zero. The resulting flow slide would, he The leading element of the debris sheet, at B (Fig. 1b), is now
suggested, travel until the "average degree of consolidation" considered. ~iforms,at time t = 0, on a segment of the slope BD
approached sufficiently close to unity for the moving mass to
"freeze." In the present paper, this idea is developed and '~lternativel~,or additionally, undrained loading produced by the
quantified and the predictions of the resultant model are ovemding of the saturated material, as described by Hutchinson and
compared with field behaviour. Bhandari (1971), may be involved.
CAN. GEOTECH. J. VOL. 23, 1986

t =O

0
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= angle o f u l t t m a t e s t a b ~ l i t y

FIG. 1. (a) Schematic section of a subaerial flow slide; (b) assumed initial excess pore-water pressures and their dissipation.
For personal use only.

inclined at ao,with an initial downslope velocity vo and some


initial distribution of pore-water pressures in a saturated (or
near-saturated) basal layer of thickness sA. These prqssures are
assumed to vary from uto at the top of the layer sh to ubo at
its base.
If an initial effective normal stress of zero on the base of the
element at B is taken as a limiting condition, the maximum . .
value of ub0will be
[(I - S ) Y + ~ ~ s a t l h c o s ~ a o
Ell (~b~)max=
Similarly, the maximum value of utois given by
121 (uto),,, = (1 - $1yh cos2
The actual initial pore-water pressures,2 ub0and uto,in the layer E , assumed = El U z ub b set a . where ub = basal
sh are unlikely to reach these maximum values, which, pore pressure
depending upon the value of u3'/u11obtaining, may be limited
by the onset of hydraulic fracture. The ratio u ~ ~ / ( u ~ ~ ) ~ ~FIG. ~ 2.
, Forces on an element of the flow slide.
between the actual initial basal pore-water pressure and its resistance to be purely frictional:
maximum value, as defined above, is termed ro.
The degree to which ub0and utorepresent excess pore-water Net driving force (per m width) = m i
= mg sin a - (mg cos a - ub b sec a ) tan +'
pressures depends, of course, on the values of final steady-state
pore-water pressures at these points. Any values can readily be where ub = basal pore-water pressure at time t. Now
treated: here the final pore-water pressures are assumed to be
zero, so that ub0 and uto become the excess pore-water mg = bh [(I - s)y + sysatl
pressures. Hence
The forces acting on an element of the debris sheet are shown [3] x =
in Fig. 2. Assuming that the total interslice forces Eiand Ej are
equal, opposite, and colinear, the equations of motion for this
element may be expressed as follows, assuming the basal
Thus, if at time t = 0, x = 0 andx = vo,
2Someguidance as to the values of these pore-water pressures at their
point of generation within the failing debris heap (upslope of point B) [4] x = xt + vo
might be obtained, following Castro and Poulos (1977), from the rela-
tionship between the precollapse values of void ratio and effective and
xt2
minor principal stress for the material and its corresponding steady- [5] x =- + vot
state line. 2
HUTCHINSON

where x, i ,and x are respectively the downslope acceleration,


velocity, and travel of the element.
At time t = 0, the factor of safety of the element against basal
sliding, Fb, will generally be considerably less than unity and
the element will accelerate down the slope BD. A major factor
controlling the further progress of the sliding element is E N G L A N D
envisaged as being a process of consolidation bringing about
progressive decay of the basal excess pore-water pressure.
Assuming that Terzaghi's one-dimensional consolidation theory
applies and that single, upward drainage is taking place, the
time t required for the basal excess pore-water pressure to decay
from ubOto ub is given by
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where T = time factor for the degree of dissipation of the basal


excess pore-water pressure, 1 - ub/ubO;(;I = average length
0
w
50
-
100

Scale I k m l
150

of drainage path = sh cos a ; c, = coefficient of consolidation of


FIG. 3. Aberfan location plan.
the material forming the layer sh of the debris sheet, for the
appropriate pore fluid and stress level.
A A

u s k g theabove relationships, the acceleration, velocity and


travel of the leading element of the flow slide may be calculated.
The point where the velocity of this element becomes zero, at t f ,
a f , and ubf, determines the run-out of the debris.
Test of the model against field behaviour
General
For personal use only.

The proposed model indicates that the predicted run-out of a


flow slide is, not surprisingly, very sensitive to the thickness of
saturated or near-saturated debris taking part. Bearing this in
mind, a review of case records was made to see which lent
themselves best to back-anaylsis. Initially it was thought that
subaqueous flow slides would prove most suitable, as all the
debris could then generally be assumed to be saturated. On
closer examination, however, it became clear that there are
several inherent difficulties in applying the model to such
failures. In particular, the geometry and mechanics of sub-
aqueous flow slides are generally complex and ill-defined
(Andresen and Bjerrum 1967; Edgers and Karlsrud 1982; Prior
1984). They are often retrogressive and commonly erode their
beds, generating fresh slides in the process (Bjerrum 1971). In
addition, their upper boundaries may be subject to hydro-
dynamic drag forces that, under certain conditions, as discussed
by Morgenstern (1967), can lead to turbulence and mixing,
when the slowing and eventual arrest of the moving debris may
result more from settling than from consolidation. Attention
was turned, therefore, towards subaerial flow slides, which are
generally unaffected by the above-mentioned difficulties and on
which detailed investigations are, of course, much more readily FIG. 4. Oblique aerial photograph of the flow slide at Aberfan in
carried out. Of such slides, that of 1966 at Aberfan, South October 1966.
Wales (Figs. 3 and 4), provided the best-documented field
behaviour against which to test the proposed model.
The jlow slide of 1966 at Aberfan the hillside of Pennant Measures r re dominantly well-jointed
The geotechnical aspects of this are described by Bishop et sandstones of the Upper Coal Measures). In 1963, a first-time
al. (1969) and by Williams (1969). In summary, the 1966 flow rotational slip occurred in tip 7 and its foundation, as a result of
slide developed in a 67 m high tip of loose coal mine waste (tip the increasing height of the tip and the advance of its toe onto
7), consisting chiefly of Carboniferous mudstones with some an area of the hillside where the strength of the mantle of Head
coal and other debris, which was being advanced valleywards was reduced by high groundwater pressures. In the years 1963-
by end-tipping on a hillside of about 12" inclination. The 1966, further rotational movements were induced in this slip by
immediate foundation of the tip (uninvestigated prior to tipping) continued tipping of mine waste at its head, combined with the
consisted of a layer of Late Pleistocene Head deposits, chiefly removal of fines from its toe by seepage erosion, which were
silty clay solifluction debris several metres thick, which mantled deposited as a sheet of slurry on the slopes below the tip toe.
CAN. GEOTECH. J. VOL. 23, 1986
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..-.
!:_x.
..
^>?..?
.
Area o f coal waste tlps
Area o f flow slide
?]]j- .Area o f subsequent "mud- run"
'
,++"Contours a t 25m vertlcal ~ n t e r v a l
on n a t u r a l ground
L= Build~ngs standlng a f t e r d ~ s o s t e r

FIG.5. Plan of Aberfan showing extent of the 1966 flow slide and the subsequent "mud-run."

On October 21, 1966, another such rotational movement


occurred in tip 7. The slip had sunk at its head by approximately
3 m when first observed at about 7:30 a.m. By about 8:30 a.m. a
total sinking of over 6 m had o ~ c u r r e dAt
. ~ approximately 9: 10
a.m., slow movements of the slip were observed to recom-
mence: several minutes after this, observers4on the crest of tip 7
saw the hard crust of the sheet of slurry below the toe of the tip
For personal use only.

"breaking up like ice." A few seconds later the lower part of the
tip was seen to move out and travel very quickly in several
"black waves" into a bank of mist downslope, which enveloped
the village of Aberfan. Different observers describe these as wet
and as dry. It seems likely that the saturated lower part of the tip
liquefied and flowed out, taking with it some of the saturated
slurry lying downslope. The upper, relatively dry, part of the tip Key (+Oil1 1 Change In surface level I m l . 1958-1965
then slipped down, some being carried forward in the flow slide, - 0 12 " " ' " . 1965-1966 (post-disaster1
floating on the liquefied material, while the remainder came to FIG.6. Plan of the Aberfan flow slide showing estimated amounts
rest in the cavity formed in the face of the tip. Because of the of erosion and deposition.
presence of the mist, probably no more than the first 100 m or so
of the travel of the flow slide was witnessed by those on the crest
of tip 7. A second flow, described as a mound of debris (about A complicating feature of the incident was the development
7 m high) being pushed downslope at slow walking pace by a of the major "mud-run," mentioned above and shown in Figs. 4
black river of water, was observed some minutes later. This was and 5. This was formed some minutes after the flow slide by
doubtless the "mud-run" shown in Fig. 5 and referred to below. groundwater issuing as a spring from the foot of the slide scar in
The resultant spread of debris is shown in Figs. 4 and 5. After tip 7. The groundwater was released from the joints in the
travelling downslope (from point X) for about 275 m, the debris Pennant Measures through the stripping away, by the slide of tip
sheet divided into a north and a south lobe. The N. lobe was the 7, of the relatively impervious Head mantle. The mud-run
smaller and came to rest after a further travel of approximately carried a considerable volume of debris downslope, depositing
125m, when its toe reached the low embankment of the old some in levees on its flanks (Fig. 4) and the rest in the lower part
Glamorgan canal. The larger S. lobe reached this embankment of its track and in its tongue, which extended further into the
after a further travel of about 150 m and had sufficient power to village than the flow slide itself (Fig. 5). As a result, the
override both this and the embankment of the dismantled relatively uniform debris sheet emplaced by the flow slide was
railway, which were contiguous at that place, and to continue appreciably modified, in places, by the subsequent erosion and
into the village of Aberfan for an additional 175 m, causing 144 deposition of the mud-run.'
deaths. The ratios of flow slide run-out to width were approxi- Calculations of the volumes of debris deposited in, or eroded
mately 5.7 for the N. lobe and 6.0 for the S. lobe. from, the various parts of the tip slide and of the combined flow
slide and mud-run were made photogrammetrically by Bishop
3 ~ist somewhat surprising that such gross movements occurred prior et al. (1969, Appendix 6). From these the average changes in
to liquefaction. A possible explanation is that the chief disturbance of surface level during various periods can be worked out. The
the saturated material in the base of the tip did not occur until it was magnitudes of these changes in the period from June 1965 to
thrust out from the toe of the rotational slip onto the natural hillside
(near point T in Fig. 7). their analysis of the 1966Aberfan failure, Jeyapalan et al. (1983)
4Seethe daily &anscriptof the Aberfan Tribunal proceedings, held confuse the mud-run, which occurred in a relatively narrow channel,
in the Lyon Playfair Library, Imperial College. with the flow slide, which occurred as a thin sheet.
HUTCHINSON 119

(m) I Tip 7 2

Max e x t e n t of flow slide


x 5 $00 rn

2 Transition
.g l e n g t h , I = 40 rn

+loo - 9
5
0 100 200

N a t u r a l scale i m l
300
-?-- Aberfan

1
Estimated max
extent i f no
+250 - obstruct~ons
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(b)

+I50

+I00 -
-

0 100
- 200 300
H o r ~ z o n t a l scale i m 1
V e r t ~ c a l exaggeration x 2
Constant slope of 11'

FIG.7. Longitudinal section of the Aberfan flow slide (S. lobe) on A-A (Fig. 5): (a) actual section, at natural scale; ( b )idealized section, with a
X2 vertical exaggeration.

October 1966, caused predominantly by the disastrous flow embankment. Mr. E. G. Rees observed that the wave of muck
For personal use only.

slide from tip 7, are shown in Fig. 6. came over the bank "about as fast as a car goes in the town,"
As the N. lobe of the flow slide was hardly affected by the probably between about 9 and 13.4 m/s. Estimates of the height
mud-run, the average thickness, h, of the leading element to which the debris rose above the embankment vary between
during its travel can be determined with a reasonable degree of 4.6-6.1 m (G. Groves) and 7.6-9.1 m (H. Rees). Taking the
confidence as 1.2 m. The overall run-out of 430 m (measured height of the upslope face of the embankment as about 1 m and
from point X, in Figs. 5 and 7, along the slope of the ground) using the relationship x2 = 2gh, velocities of the S. lobe of the
seems to have been limited very little, if at all, by the presence of flow slide, as it reached the embankment, of 11.2 m/s (an
the old canal bank. In the case of the considerably modified S. average of Mr. Groves' estimates) to 13.5 m/s (an average of
lobe of the flow slide, the determination of a representative Mr. H. Rees' figures) are obtained. These estimates agree well
value of h is more difficult. The best indication is probably with those of Mr. E. G. Rees, above, for the S. lobe of the flow
provided by the thickness of the area just upslope of the canal slide. No estimate of the speed of the N. lobe of the flow slide
and railway banks (Fig. 6), where the erosive and depositional appears to be available.
effects of the mud-run roughly cancel out. Downslope of the A longitudinal profile through the S. lobe of the flow slide
railway bank, the flow slide debris was impeded by buildings, (section A-A in Fig. 5) is shown in Fig. 7 at natural (Fig. 7a)
and also, the degree of deposition by the mud-run increases. On and exaggerated (Fig. 7b) vertical scales. The profile through
balance, an h value of 2.0 m has been taken for the S. lobe of the N. lobe is broadly similar. The average slope there is 12.2"
the flow slide. Some support for the above h values is provided for the first 251 m of travel (downslope, from point X), 11.OO
by the records of boreholes through the flow slide debris, but for the next 104 m, and 8.7" for the final 45 m.
many of these are in areas modified by the mud-run. The
maximum run-out of the S. lobe of the flow slide was Properties of the materials involved
approximately 600m from point X (Fig. 5). This would The relevant data from Bishop et al. (1969) are summarized.
certainly have been greater had the slope been unimpeded, and a Additional data are provided on the values of y,+', and c,.
possible maximum extent of 750m, if there had been no The average bulk unit weight, y,of the eastern part of tip 7
obstructions, has been estimated. remaining after the failure was shown by Bishop et al. (1969) to
Estimates of the average speed of the flow slide, based on the be about 17.3 kN/m3. The corresponding average dry unit
account of eye-witnesses, were summarized as "probably weight, y,, was about 15.6kN/m3. These low values are a
between 10 and 20 miles per hour" (ca. 4.5-9.0 m/s) by Bishop reflection partly of the loose state of packing and partly of the
et al. (1969) and as "at least 15 miles per hour" (ca. 6.7 m/s) by presence of an appreciable proportion of coal and carbonaceous
Williams (1969). From the transcript^,^ it is evident that there shale in the debris: the specific gravity of particles in colliery
were two groups of eye-witnesses: those on the crest of tip 7 and waste tips in the United Kingdom generally is reported to range
those in the Moy Road area (Fig. 5). The former, who could see, between about 1.4 and 2.7 (Taylor 1984).
as noted earlier, only about the first 100 m of the travel of the A better indication of the state of packing in tip 7 is provided
flow slide, all spoke of very high speeds but provided nothing by the ratio of the average value of y, of 15.6kN/m3 to the
quantitative. The latter group, who had a visibility in the mist of Standard Proctor Maximum y, of 19.0 kN/m3, which was 82%
37-46 m, furnished some information concerning the estimated (Hutchinson 1967). The variation of y and y, in tip 7 with
speed of the flow slide as it overrode the canal and railway depth, together with standard penetration test (SPT) "N"
120 CAN. GEOTECH. 1. VOL. 23, 1986

N value Yn i k ~ / m ~ ) and 7, are given in Fig. 9. Attention has already been drawn
(Bishop 1973; Hutchinson 1967) to the wide grading of this
I Q
o uncorrected
+ corrected for
I1 O)
---2''- A
I

90
Proctor Maximum
material, contrasting strongly with the rather uniformly graded
material in the fine sand range with which flow slides had
* (after P e c k e
previously been associated by many engineers. It has also been
a1.1974 1
5
noted (Hutchinson 1967) that the uniformity coefficient for the
Aberfan material is about 18, well outside the value of 5
previously proposed by Terzaghi and Peck (1948) as the upper
limit for natural soils prone to liquefaction. The D50grain size
for material from tip 7 passing a 12 in. (30.5 mm) sieve is
approximately 9- 10 mm.
Triaxial compression tests on samples from the remaining
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part of tip 7 gave average +peak' values of 39.5" in drained tests


and 41.5" in undrained tests with pore-pressure measurement
(Bishop et al. 1969). A notable feature of the Aberfan waste
\ material is the strong degree of continuing particle degradation
from U ~ O O S -b, __ with strain (Bishop et al. 1969; Bishop 1973). Thus on the slip
surface beneath tip 7, on which over 21 m of shear displacement
' 7 during the years 1963-1966 had produced a band of cohesive
d material 25-305 rnm thick consisting of tip waste in a matrix of
from
clay and silt-sized particles, the back-analysed value of drained
residual shear strength was 26", with c,' = 0. A +,' value as low
as 17.5" was measured in the laboratory on a smear of fine
material from this slip surface. In the present context, the
relevant shear parameters are those applying in the flow slide
1 after
debris during its travel. Brief examination of sections of this
fatlure) debris, in the debris sheets of both the Aberfan and ~ b e r c ~ n o n ~
flow slides, revealed no signs of a degraded shear band within
For personal use only.

Natural ground level the material and +,,I is therefore taken to be the appropriate
shear parameter, rather than +,I.
FIG. 8. Values of N (from SPT) and y, measured shortly after the On the basis of the data outlined above, the average effective
Aberfan disaster in the remaining part of tip 7 (borehole T7/ I), derived normal stresses acting on the slip surfaces of the 1966 flow
from Bishop et al. (1969).
slides from tip 7 at Aberfan would have ranged between about
15 and 35 kPa. The results of consolidated-drained &axial tests
100
1 CLAY
,
SILT SAND GRAVEL COBBLES on 610 mm high X 305 mm diameter samples of closely related
material from tip 2 (Binnie and Partners 1974) indicate a
Tip 7 upper and lower grading lhmits
p 80- [ a f t e r Hutchinson 1967 1 value of around 40" when extrapolated down to these very low
TIP 2 grading of 99 mm and 305 mm dfa stress levels, which agrees closely with the values for
a
, 60 -
t r ~ a x ~ as lo r n ~ l e s tested
(ofler Bjnnie and Poitners 19741
quoted above for the tip 7 material. The stress-strain curves for
0
& these tests on 305 mm diameter samples from tip 2 (Fig. 10)
? LO- show only a marginal drop in stress ratio past the peak. The
a
value of +,' is considered to be approximately that associated
20 - with a ( a l ' - u3')/u3' value, at large strain, of 3 .O, i.e., about
36". Whether such static shear strength parameters obtain at the
high diplacement rates (10m/s and more) believed to have
Particle slze lmm l occurred during the 1966 flow slide is not known. However,
FIG.9. Relationship of grading curves for the material tested from neither Hungr and Morgenstern (1984) nor Sassa (1984), for
tip 2 at Aberfan with those for the material in tip 7. granular materials tested at shearing rates of up to 1 m/s in ring
shear apparatuses, found'any appreciable effect of shear rate on
the residual friction angle.
value^,^ is shown in Fig. 8. In situ y and y~ values in the Concerning c, values, the best data currently available are
northern lobe of the flow slide, measured well after consolida- provided by the consolidation stages of triaxial tests on the
tion was completed, were 19.1 and 17.5 kN/m3, respectively. 305 mm diameter samples of tip 2 material mentioned above
In passing, it is noted that these N values, in material containing (Binnie and Partners 1974). These are summarized in Fig. 11
numerous coarse particles of platey shale, are likely to be and indicate that c, values in the range of about 1000-
greater than values in sands of corresponding relative density. 8000 m2/year are likely to be appropriate for the conditions in
Typical gradings of the Aberfan waste material, from tips 2 the Aberfan flow slide^.^ With such high magnitudes of c,, it is

6 ~ o t huncorrected N values and values corrected for overburden 'A flow slide similar to that in 1966 at Aberfan, which occurred in
pressure, following Peck et al. (1974), are shown. The SPT equip- 1939, about 10 krn further down the Taff Valley (Bishop et al. 1969).
ment consisted of a "Pilcon" free-fall trip of total mass 144 Ib (65 kg) 'An average c, of 612 m2lyear from the consolidation stages of
with a 30 in. (760mm) fall in accordance with BS 1377 (British triaxial tests on 100 rnrn diameter samples of coarse-grained coal mine
Standards Institution 1975).Square drill rods of cross section 14 X 14 in. discard from West Wales, for an average effective confining pressure
(31.8 x 31.8 mm) were used (T. R. M. Wakeling, personal com- of 120 kPa, is reported by Taylor et al. (1978). The respective ranges
munication). of values were from 433 to 1128 m2Iyear and from 30 to 242 kPa.
Assumed d l s t r ~ b u t l o n of ~ n l t l a l
excess p o r e - w a t e r p r e s s u r e : I
o-Oa-~-~-e 36'
6L - 3 4 O
- 32O
- 30"

U9 ( X ) 99mrn d ~ xa 205 rnrn h ~ g h-‘undisturbed'


6L (01 305rnrn d1a.x 610 rnrn hlgh -'recompacted
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I I I I I
T ~ m ef a c t o r , T
0 5 10 15 20
A x l a l s t r a ~ n (YO) FIG. 12. Approximate variation of basal excess pore-water pressure,
ub, with time factor, T, for initial trapezoidal distributions of
excess pore-water pressure and single upward drainage (after Terzaghi
and Frohlich 1936).

maximum travel downslope from point X was 600m and the


possible maximum extent, if there had been no obstructions, is
estimated at 750m. From a consideration of the evidence on
velocities, presented earlier, and allowing approximately for the
shape of the relevant early part of the velocity/travel curves, the
average velocity for the 430 m travel between point X and the
FIG. 10. Stress-strain and volume change curves for consolidated- canal bank, x ~ is ~estimated
~ , to have lain between 8 and 11
drained triaxial compression tests on material from tip 2 at Aberfan m/s.
For personal use only.

(after Binnie and Partners 1974). The main geometrical and geotechnical factors required in
order to test the proposed model against the behaviour of the S.
lobe flow slide are discussed next. The chief uncertainty
-
Key to samples concerns the proportion s of the average thickness i that is
-
305 mm dla. x 610 mm hlgh: max mat1 slze = 51 mm saturated or near-saturated. Bishop et al. (1969) suggest that the
Cv W mm dia. x 205mm high: 8% ,' : 51 mm thickness of the relatively dry debris in the flow slide was greater
(rn21~eori- q 0 .,
than that of the underlying, saturated material (i.e. s < 0.5).
t, . ,. ,,
3,
" =13mm
\ Q ,, ., ,,
\
\
:'und~sturbed"
I The d tests were carried out by
Later estimates of the proportion of the slipped mass of tip 7 that
\
\ Soil Mechs Ltd.; all the remainder
was saturated indicate that the value of s may have lain between
\\
were done a t lmper~ol College 1 0.1 and 0.2. This value rises above 0.3 if an allowance is made
for the volume of largely saturated slurry that already lay on the
mountainside immediately below the toe of the tip. A value of s
= 0.1 has been taken in the back-analyses and the effect of s
values of up to 0.3 is explored.
The initial value of the excess pore-water pressure at the base
of the flow slide element and its distribution through the layer
s i are also uncertain. For s = 0.1, the ratio of (u,~),,, to
( u ~ ~ ) , ,given
~ , by [2] and [ l ] respectively, is 0.89 and this value
is assumed to obtain, at the time t = 0, throughout the calcula-
tions. These are performed for a value of ro = ~ ~ ~ / ( of ~ ~ o ) m
\
1.00 and for arbitrary lower values of ro, down to 0.6. The
in -approx equlvolent stress level in Aberfan flow sllde
,
,
'
,
initial velocity, at the point X (Figs. 5 and 7), is assumed to be
l.Om/s. The influence of values of vo up to 3.0m/s is also
examined.
Single upward drainage in the flow slide has been assumed for
FIG. 11. Values of c, derived from the consolidation stage of the following reasons:
triaxial tests on material from tip 2 at Aberfan. -The fairly dry material forming the upper part of the flow slide
was relatively free draining. Bishop et al. (1969) quote a
possible that the constraints associated with the porous elements permeability for a representative sample of tip 7 of 6.6 x
used in the laboratory tests may have resulted in even these m/s.
values being underestimates. -The slopes over which the debris travelled were generally
subject to artesian groundwater pressures with respect to natural
Sliding-consolidation back-analyses and discussion ground level.
In view of the relatively small significance of the N. lobe of -The upper parts of these slopes were covered with a layer of
the flow slide of 1966, and the lack of information on its saturated or near-saturated debris, composed partly of fines
velocity, the back-analyses have been concentrated on the event removed from the toe of tip 7 by seepage erosion during the
that formed the S. lobe. In this, as discussed, the observed period from about 1963 to October 1966.
CAN. GEOTECH. J. VOL. 23, 1986

(a>
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by NC STATE UNIVERSITY on 06/29/13

40 l

i
E
::
4
pq
-a n d 11
For personal use only.

-and
' 430

Aberfan,
S.lobe

I , 1 1 I I I I
o1 500 1000 1500 x (rn)
rn 1s) (rnls)

FIG. 13. plots of velocity, T, against travel, x, for various values of 4' and the initial basal pore-pressure ratio ro = ubO/(ubO)max.Plots 0f2430,
the average velocity from point X (Fig. 7) to the canal bank, are also given: (a) for c, = 2000m2/year; ( b ) for c, = 10000 m2lyear.
10+ro values
(m/s)
30
-
* 430
20

10
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by NC STATE UNIVERSITY on 06/29/13

Aberfan , S. lobe

zoo
1 1 1 1 1 1 t lo
100 500 1000 x ( m ) MOO
range of'lab. cV values
15" I I t ! I I I I I

1
(b) lo3
1 1 1 1
i
I
cv

I
loL

' ' ' ' 'rb values


(rn/yeor)

(m/s) //100/
I
For personal use only.

1 Aberfon. '
1 5 . lobe \ I

FIG. 14. Plots of +' against reach, x, for various values of


ro: (a) for c,
= 2000 m2Iyear; (b) for c, = 10000 m2Iyear.

-Heavy rain fell shortly before the disaster (70 mm on October FIG. 15. Summary plots showing (a) values of +', c,, and ro that
18- 19 (Bleasdale 1969)). yield the estimated maximum reach, x, of 750 m (values yielding the
For the conditions outlined above, the approximate variation observed maximum reach of 600 m are also shown); (b) corresponding
of the local degree of dissipation at the impervious base with values of .ib30.
time factor, T, can be obtained from the equations given in
Section 23 of Terzaghi and Frohlich (1936). This is shown for From the results, plots of +'
against travel are made for the
uto/ubovalues of 0.95 and 0.83 (corresponding to s values of various values of c, and ro, as well as for the corresponding
0.05 and 0.15, respectively) in Fig. 12. In the calculations, the values of z430.Representative examples of these plots are given
average of these two curves, corresponding to an s value of in Figs. 14a and 14b, again for c, values of 2000 and
0.1, has been used. 10 000 m2/year, respectively.
The material parameters used are as follows: y in the Finally, the summary plots of Figs. 15a and 15b are
upper layer, (1 - s) h thick = 17.3 kN/m3; y, in the basal prepared. Figure 15a shows the relationships between +', c,,
layer, sh thick = 18.6 kN/m3; for the basal slip surface
+,,I and ro that yield the estimated maximum reach of 750m.
(with c' = 0) = 36"; c, for the basal layer, sh thick = 1000 - Similar curves fitting the observed maximum reach of 600 m are
10 000 m2lyear. also shown, with broken lines. In Fig. 15b, the corresponding
An average slope profile with a constant inclination a of 1l ois values of F430are shown, for the 750 m reach only. It is then a
used for most of the back-analyses of the S. lobe. The influence simple matter to determine the unique value of c, that will
of the actual, slightly concave slope profile (Fig. 7) is also satisfy both the probable +,,I value (in Fig. 15a) and the
investigated. estimated field value (in Fig. 15b), at the same value of
Using [3]-[5] and the above data, the variation of flow slide ro. For the average values arrived at earlier, of = 36" and +,,I

velocity with travel is computed for the S. lobe for c, values of i430 = 9.5 m/s, the required value of c, turns out to be
1 000, 2 000, 5 000, and 10000 m2/year, ro values of 1.OO 2000m2/year, well within the range of laboratory rneasure-
down to 0.60, and 4' values ranging between 20" and 40". ments, at an ro value of approximately 0.78.
Corresponding values of 2430,the average velocity of the flow In Fig. 16, the effects of varying the initial velocity, vo, from
slide down to the canal bank, are also determined. Representa- 1.0 to 3.0 m/s on a constant 11" slope are explored for 4' = 36",
tive results, for c, = 2 000 and 10 000 m2/year, are also shown c, = 2000 m2/year, and ro = 0.78. The change in vo froin 1.0 to
in Figs. 13a and 13b, respectively. In each case the cross- 2.0 m/s is roughly equivalent to keeping vo constant at 1.0 m/s
hatched rectangle indicates the best assessment of the reach and and reducing c, by around 10%. In Fig. 17, the relationships of
average velocity down to the canal bank obtaining in the field. acceleration to travel and velocity to travel, for 4' = 36", c, =
124 CAN. GEOTECH. J. VOL. 23, 1986

evidence may be readily obtained. For example, if the relevant


4' were 30", a fit would be provided with c, = 2250 m2/year
and ro = 0.73; with 4' as low at 25", the values would become
2700 m2/year and approximately 0.66, respectively. More
dramatic changes naturally ensue if s is varied. With s = 0.2
rather than 0.1, the value of c, required, for 4' = 36", would
increase from 2000 to about 8000 m2lyear; with s = 0.3, c,
would need to be about 18 000 m2/year.
In this connection, a possible further development of the
present simple sliding-consolidation model is being considered.
In this, upward drainage is still dominant, but is considered to be
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by NC STATE UNIVERSITY on 06/29/13

accompanied by a degree of partially impeded downward


drainage. This implies a progressive upward shift of the slip
surface from the base of the debris, the laying down of a thin
layer of debris on the ground surface as the flow slide advances,
FIG. 16. The effects on velocity and travel of varying the values of and the consequent thinning of the debris sheet with distance
initial velocity, vo, from 1.O to 3.0 m/s for a = 1lo, +' = 36", c, = travelled. It is evident that with some degree of double drainage,
2000m~/~ear, and ro= 0.78. even without thinning, the necessary c, values would be
reduced appreciably.
2000 m2/year, and ro = 0.780 and 0.785, are compared for a Davies (1982) supports the view that the reach of debris flows
slope of constant a = 1l o and a slope in which a varies from (in his case, sturzstroms) of similar shape will depend mainly on
11.8" to 0.7" (as in Fig. 7a). This indicates that the flattening the volumes of their deposits. While this is evident for a given
slope begins to have a pronounced effect once the travel exceeds thickness, bulking factor, and breadth-to-thickness ratio of a
about 600 m. continuous debris deposit, it should be borne in mind that debris
The curves of acceleration against travel in Fig. 17 are of flows may become detached from their supply source, in which
interest. The coincidence of the points of zero acceleration (and case this simple relationship breaks down. From Fig. 6 it can be
thus Fb = 1.0) and maximum velocity is clearly shown. seen that there is some tendency for both the N. and S. lobes of
For personal use only.

Furthermore, the plot suggests that such flow slides may be the flow slide at Aberfan in 1966 to be of the detached type. The
expected to pass readily over the natural ground slope, in the proposed model applies equally well to continuous or detached,
upper part of their travel, while in the lower part, the developing single event flow slides.
traction will tend to cause erosion of this. Evidence from South
Wales bearing on this point is currently being collected and will Conclusions
be presented elsewhere. 1. For flow slides involving debris sheets of substantially
From Fig. 15, other solutions fitting the available field uniform thickness h, emplaced in a single event, a sliding-

River
Taff ~
-
- _ _ _ _ _ - - -- - -
f o r a = 11.0'
d Estimated
max-extent
without

0.5 L 1 in Fig. 7a
ro values
[ ks-hown above)

\ \
FIG. 17. Comparison, for 4' = 36", c, = 2000 m2/year, and r o = 0.780 and 0.785, of acceleration/travel and velocity/travel curves for a
constant slope, aiof 11' and a slope varying from 11.Soto 0.7" (as i n ~ i7a).
~ . The variation of Fb with travel is also shown fo; the case of a = 1lo,
ro= 0.785.
consolidation model is developed. This postulates the existence sliding-consolidation model to be checked against it. Thus, it
of a zone of excess pore-fluid pressures at the commencement of cannot be concluded that the model reflects the true mechanism
the flow slide in at least the basal part (of thickness sh) of the of that event: only that it provides a possible explanation of the
debris sheet. Under the influence of the basal excess pore fluid known facts in terms of effective-stress soil mechanics.
pressures, the debris sheet accelerates downslope-by basal 5. In general, a two- or three-phase effective-stress model of
sliding, in a plug-flow mode (i.e. with constant velocity the type presented, which, as demonstrated, can be checked
distribution with depth). During this process, the basal excess quantitatively against field behaviour, is believed to offer a
pore-fluid pressure is successively decreased by consolidation, better means of studying flow slides, and other rapid debris
through single, upward drainage in the simplest case, until the flows, than viscous models, in which the principle of effective
leading element is brought to rest. The position where this stress is generally abandoned and an empirical fit sought to the,
occurs defines the run-out of the flow slide. The model applies in usually unmeasured, viscosity of a hypothetical, single-phase
principle to any pore fluid and to subaerial or subaqueous flow material.
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by NC STATE UNIVERSITY on 06/29/13

slides of this nature: in the latter case, the situation may be


complicated by other factors, such as hydrodynamic drag on the Acknowledgements
upper surface of the debris. A preliminary version of the model treated here was first
2. It is concluded that the S. lobe of the subaerial flow slide presented in a lecture to the Engineering Group of the
of 1966 at Aberfan, South Wales, provides the best-documented Geological Society of London in February 1973. The author is
field case against which to check the model. Computations are indebted to the Imperial College, London, the Science and
made with h = 2.0 m and s = 0.1 for a range of + ' , c,, and Engineering Council (U.K.), and the Civil Engineering Depart-
ro values (ro is the ratio of the actual initial basal pore-water ment of the University of Alberta, Edmonton, for making
pressure to its maximum theoretical value, corresponding to possible a term's study leave in Canada in 1982 during which
zero normal effective stress on the basal slip surface). The further progress on this paper was made. He is grateful to
average ground slope is taken as 11"; the effect of a concave several colleagues for their assistance, particularly to Professor
slope of inclination varying from 11.8" to 0.7" is also e ~ p l o r e d . ~ A. W. Bishop and Dr. A. E. Skinner for constructive comments
The initial velocity, vo, is taken generally as 1.0 m/s. and to Professor N. R. Morgenstern and Professor R. E. Gibson
The results of the computations fit the observed run-out, of for their encouragement and helpful suggestions. Finally, the
600-750 m, and the average velocity during the first 430 m of author wishes to thank Mr. A. G. Blay and Dr. S. K. Sarma for
For personal use only.

travel (fromjust below tip 7 to the canal bank), of 8-1 1 m/s, for advice on the computing.
a range of values, exemplified below:
ANDRESEN, A., and BJERRUM, L. 1967. Slides in subaqueous slopes in
loose sand and silt. In Marine geotechnique. Edited by A. F.
Richards. University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL, pp. 221-239.
(Reprinted in Norwegian Geotechnical Institute Publication NO. 8 1,
The value of 6' is assumed to approximate $,,' = 36", but may 1968.)
be slightly lower than this. The required c, values all lie in the BINNIE AND PARTNERS. 1974. Department of Energy. Report on
research at Aberfan. Binnie and Partners, London, England.
lower part of the range of values, of about 1000-8000 rn2Iyear, BISHOP, A. W. 1973. The stability of tips and spoil heaps. Quarterly
measured in the consolidation stage of large-diameter triaxial Journal of Engineering Geology, 6 , pp. 335-376.
tests. Higher required c, values would result if a more exact BISHOP,A. W., HUTCHINSON, J. N., PENMAN, A. D. M., EV EVANS,
relation between time factor and the degree of dissipation of the H. E. 1969. Geotechnical investigations into the causes and
basal pore-water pressure were to be used and, as noted earlier, circumstances of the disaster of 21st October 1966. A selection of
if values of s > 0.1 are taken. A development of the present technical reports submitted to the Aberfan Tribunal, pp. 1-80.
sliding-consolidation model, in which a small degree of Welsh Office, H.M.S .O., London, England.
downward drainage is also introduced, would lead, on the other BJERRUM, L. 1971. Subaqueous slope failures in Norwegian fjords.
hand, to smaller required c, values, partly through the inherent Norwegian Geotechnical Institute Publication No. 88, pp. 1-8.
reduction in drainage paths and partly through the thinning of BLEASDALE, A. 1969. Meteorological conditions relating to the
the saturated basal layer that would then take place. Aberfan Inquiry. A selection of technical reports submitted to the
Aberfan Tribunal, pp. 207-218. Welsh Office, H.M.S.O., London,
3. It follows from the relationships between the acceleration, England.
velocity, and travel of the flow slide that the points of zero BLIGHT, G. 1977. Slopes in industrial waste. Proceedings, 9th
acceleration, where also Fb = 1.00, and those of maximum International Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engin-
velocity are coincident. The variation of acceleration with travel eering, Tokyo, Vol. 2, pp. 600-604.
suggest further that debris sheets involved in such flow slides are BRITISHSTANDARDS INSTITUTION. 1975. BS 1377. Methods of test for
likely to pass readily over the ground surface in the early stages soils for civil engineering purposes. British Standards Institution,
of their travel but to erode this in the later stages, as the basal London, England.
traction builds up. CAMPBELL, D. B., and SHAW, W. H. 1978. Performance of a waste
4. Despite fairly full data for the 1966 Aberfan flow slide, rock dump on moderate to steeply sloping foundations. Proceedings,
many assumptions had still to be made to enable the proposed 1st International Symposium on Stability in Coal Mining, Van-
couver, pp. 395-405.
CASAGRANDE, A. 1965. Role of the "Calculated Risk" in earthwork
'~odification of the consolidation process by the slight angular and foundation engineering. ASCE Journal of the Soil Mechanics
distortion of the element, inherent in this case, is regarded as of and Foundations Division, 91(SM4), pp. 1-40.
negligible importance in the present context. Deviations from a CASTRO, G., and Pou~os,S. J. 1977. Factors affecting liquefaction
constant distribution of velocity with depth during travel of the debris and cyclic mobility. ASCE Journal of the Geotechnical Engineering
(even down a slope of constant inclination) could, however, have a Division, 103(GT6), pp. 501-5 16.
significant effect. DAVIES, T. R. H. 1982. Spreading of rock avalanche debris by mechan-
126 CAN. GEOTECH. J. VOL. 23, 1986

ical fluidization. Rock Mechanics, 15, pp. 9-24. PRIOR,D. B. 1984. Subaqueous landslides. Proceedings, 4th Inter-
DAVIES,W. E. 1968. Coal waste bank stability. Mining Congress national Symposium on Landslides, Toronto, Vol. 1, pp. 179-196.
Journal, 54(7), pp. 19-24. SASSA,K. 1984. The mechanism starting liquefied landslides and
DORBY,R., and ALVAREZ,L. 1967. Seismic failures in Chilean debris flows. Proceedings, 4th International Symposium on Land-
tailings dams. ASCE Journal of the Soil Mechanics and Foundations slides, Toronto, Vol. 2, pp. 349-354.
Division, 93(SM6), pp. 237-260. SEED, H. B. 1968. Landslides during earthquakes due to soil
ECKERSLEY,J. D. 1984. Flowslides in stockpiled coal. Fourth liquefaction. ASCE Journal of the Soil Mechanics and Foundations
Australia- New Zealand Conference on Geomechanics, Perth, Vol. Division, 94(SM5), pp. 1053-1 122.
2, pp. 607-61 1. SKEMPTON, A. W., and HUTCHINSON, J. N. 1969. Stability of natural
EDGERS,L., and KARLSRUD,K. 1982. Soil flows generated by slopes and embankment foundations. Proceedings, 7th International
submarine slides-case studes and consequences. Proceedings of Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation Engineering, Mexico.
the 3rd International Conference on the Behaviour of Off-shore State-of-the-Art Volume, pp. 291-340.
Structures, Cambridge, MA, Vol. 2, pp. 425-437. TAYLOR,R. K. 1984. Composition and engineering properties of
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HEIM,A. 1908. ~ b e rezente


r und fossile subaquatische Rutschungen British colliery discards. Mining Department, National Coal Board,
und deren lithologische Bedeutung. Neues Jahrbuch fiir Mineralogie, London, England.
Geologie und Palaontologie, 2, pp. 136- 157. TAYLOR,R. K., KENNEDY,G. W., and MACMILLAN, G. L. 1978.
HUNGR, O., and MORGENSTERN, N. R. 1984. High velocity shear tests Susceptibility of coarse-grained coal-mine discard to liquefaction.
on sand. GCotechnique, 34(3), pp. 415-421. The 3rd International Congress of Engineering Geology, Madrid.
HUTCHINSON, J. N. 1967. Contribution to discussion on Session 3. Special Session 3, pp. 91-100.
Proceedings of the Geotechnical Conference, Oslo, Vol. 2, pp. TERZAGHI, K. 1956. Varieties of submarine slope failures. Proceed-
214-215. ings of the 8th Texas Conference on Soil Mechanics and Foundation
HUTCHINSON, J. N., and BHANDARI, R. K. 1971. Undrained loading, a Engineering. (Reprinted in Teknisk Ukeblad, No. 43-44, 1957;
fundamental mechanism of mudflows and other mass movements. Norwegian Geotechnical Institute Publication No. 25, 1957, pp.
GCotechnique, 21(4), pp. 353-358. 1-16; Harvard Soil Mechanics Series No. 52, 1957.)
JEYAPALAN, J. K., DUNCAN,J. M., and SEED, H. B. 1983. TERZAGHI,K., and FROHLICH,0 . K. 1936. Theorie der Setzung
Investigation of flow failures of tailings dams. ASCE Journal of von Tonschicten. Franz Deuticke, Leipzig und Wien. Translated
Geotechnical Engineering, 109(2), pp. 172- 189. into French by M. Adler (1939): ThCorie du tassement des couches
KOPPEJAN, A. W., VAN WAMELEN, B. M., and WEINBERG, L. J. H. argileuses. Dunod, Paris.
1948. Coastal flow slides in the Dutch province of Zeeland. TERZAGHI, K., and PECK,R. B. 1948. Soil mechanics in engineering
Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Soil Mechanics practice. John Wiley, New York.
For personal use only.

and Foundation Engineering, Rotterdam, Vol. 5, pp. 89-96. TORREY,V. H., and WEAVER, F. J. 1984. Flow failures in Mississippi
MORGENSTERN, N. R. 1967. Submarine slumping and the initiation of riverbanks. Proceedings, 4th International Symposium on Land-
turbidity currents. I n Marine geotechnique. Edited by A. F. slides, Toronto, Vol. 2, pp. 355-360.
Richards, University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL, pp. 189-220. WILLIAMS,G. M. T. 1969. Inquiry into the Aberfan disaster. A
PECK, R. B., HANSEN,W. E., and THORNBURN, T. H. 1974. selection of technical reports submitted to the Aberfan Tribunal, pp.
Foundation engineering. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York; 91- 116. Welsh Office, H.M.S.O., London, England.
Chapman & Hall Limited, London.

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